Climatic factors control rodent seed predation in Pinus pinea L. stands in Central Spain

- Context: Pinus pinea L. presents serious problems of natural regeneration in managed forest of Central Spain. The species exhibits specific traits linked to frugivore activity. Therefore, information on plant–animal interactions may be crucial to understand regeneration failure. - Aims: Determining the spatio-temporal pattern of P. pinea seed predation by Apodemus sylvaticus L. and the factors involved. Exploring the importance of A. sylvaticus L. as a disperser of P. pinea. Identifying other frugivores and their seasonal patterns. - Methods: An intensive 24-month seed predation trial was carried out. The probability of seeds escaping predation was modelled through a zero-inflated binomial mixed model. Experiments on seed dispersal by A. sylvaticus were conducted. Cameras were set up to identify other potential frugivores. - Results: Decreasing rodent population in summer and masting enhances seed survival. Seeds were exploited more rapidly nearby parent trees and shelters. A. sylvaticus dispersal activity was found to be scarce. Corvids marginally preyed upon P. pinea seeds. - Conclusions: Survival of P. pinea seeds is climate-controlled through the timing of the dry period together with masting occurrence. Should germination not take place during the survival period, establishment may be limited. A. sylvaticus mediated dispersal does not modify the seed shadow. Seasonality of corvid activity points to a role of corvids in dispersal.

How do various maize crop models vary in their responses to climate change factors?

Comments This article is a U.S. government work, and is not subject to copyright in the United States. Abstract Potential consequences of climate change on crop production can be studied using mechanistic crop simulation models. While a broad variety of maize simulation models exist, it is not known whether different models diverge on grain yield responses to changes in climatic factors, or whether they agree in their general trends related to phenology, growth, and yield. With the goal of analyzing the sensitivity of simulated yields to changes in temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations [CO2], we present the largest maize crop model intercomparison to date, including 23 different models. These models were evaluated for four locations representing a wide range of maize production conditions in the world: Lusignan (France), Ames (USA), Rio Verde (Brazil) and Morogoro (Tanzania). While individual models differed considerably in absolute yield simulation at the four sites, an ensemble of a minimum number of models was able to simulate absolute yields accurately at the four sites even with low data for calibration, thus suggesting that using an ensemble of models has merit. Temperature increase had strong negative influence on modeled yield response of roughly 0.5 Mg ha 1 per °C. Doubling [CO2] from 360 to 720 lmol mol 1 increased grain yield by 7.5% on average across models and the sites. That would therefore make temperature the main factor altering maize yields at the end of this century. Furthermore, there was a large uncertainty in the yield response to [CO2] among models. Model responses to temperature and [CO2] did not differ whether models were simulated with low calibration information or, simulated with high level of calibration information.

Riparian woodland encroachment following flow regulation: a comparative study of Boreal and Mediterranean streams

Water development accompanying mankind development has turned rivers into endangered ecosystems. Improving the understanding of ecological responses to river management actions is a key issue for assuring sustainable water management. However, few studies have been published where ecological metrics have been quantified in response to various degrees of flow alteration. In this work, changes in natural distribution of trees and shrubs within the riparian corridor (as indicator of the ecological status of the fluvial ecosystem) were quantified at multiple sites along a flow alteration gradient (as indicator of impact) along two regulated river reaches, one Boreal and the other Mediterranean, each downstream of a dam. Based on the obtained relationships we evaluated differences in response trends related to local physico-climatic factors of the two biomes and regarding to differing life-forms. Woody vegetation establishment patterns represented objective indicators of ecological responses to flow alteration. We found different responses between life-forms. Both trees and shrubs migrated downwards to the channel after dam closure, but shrubs were most impacted under higher degrees of flow alteration in terms of lateral movement. In addition, our results show clear longitudinal recovery trends of natural patterns of tree and shrub distribution corresponding to a decrease in intensity of hydrologic alteration in the Boreal river. However, vegetation encroachment persisted along the entire Mediterranean study reach. This may result from a relatively low gradient of decrease of hydrologic alteration with distance from the dam, coupled with other overlapping pressures and the mediating effect of physico-climatic characteristics on vegetation responses.

Estudio de un modelo multicriterio para estudiar la viabilidad de un cultivo energético en la Península Ibérica. Aplicación a la comarca de Navalmoral de la Mata

En el presente estudio se propone una metodología para la evaluación de proyectos de implantación de cultivos energéticos, integrando una serie de factores de interés en un modelo de decisión, basado en un enfoque multicriterio. Mediante este modelo se pretende evaluar tanto los territorios más adecuados para la introducción un cultivo energético, como la especie más apropiada a los condicionantes que presenta el lugar elegido. Para este estudio se ha realizado una selección previa de cuatro especies forestales, cuyas características de crecimiento y producción las hace adecuadas para su aplicación en un proyecto de este tipo. Las cuatro especies escogidas han sido chopo, sauce, eucalipto y paulonia. La metodología propuesta ha consistido primero en un estudio ecológico en el ámbito de la Península Ibérica y Baleares, con el fin de identificar aquellas regiones óptimas para cada una de las cuatro especies estudiadas. En este proceso se han seleccionado una serie de factores climáticos, que vendrán definidos a partir de los condicionantes ecológicos de dichas especies. Posteriormente se ha propuesto un modelo multicriterio, basado en técnicas conocidas y de aplicación sencilla, donde se integran aspectos ambientales, económicos y sociales, que vendrán a completar la información ecológica trabajada previamente. Este modelo incluye la técnica de comparación por pares propuesta por el Dr. Saaty en el año 1980, para la ponderación de los factores o criterios seleccionados. Posteriormente, y tras su valoración, se utiliza la suma lineal ponderada como técnica de decisión final. Una vez definido el modelo, se ha aplicado a una comarca en particular, la comarca agraria de Navalmoral de la Mata. A partir de la información recopilada referente a todos los criterios seleccionados previamente en el modelo, se ha procedido a valorar cada uno de ellos. Con estos valores y tras la ponderación de criterios, se ha aplicado el modelo, para obtener finalmente los territorios dentro de la comarca, y las especies forestales con mayor aptitud para el desarrollo de un proyecto de implantación de cultivos energéticos. ABSTRACT A methodology has been proposed for the evaluation of projects to implement energy crops; this includes a number of factors of interest in a decision model based on a multi-criteria approach. This model is to evaluate both the most suitable territories for introducing an energy crop, as the most appropriate species to the conditions presented by the place chosen For this study has made a preliminary selection of four species, with characteristics of growth and production, what making them suitable for use in a project of this type. The four species selected were poplar, willow, eucalyptus and paulownia. The proposed methodology consists first in an ecological study in the context of the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands, in order to identify those best regions for each of the four species studied. In this process has selected a series of climatic factors, which will be defined from the ecological conditions of these species. Then we have proposed a multi-criteria model based on known techniques and simple application where are integrated environmental, economic and social aspects, which will complement the ecological information previous. This model includes the technique proposed by Dr. Saaty in 1980, the weighting by pairs of factors or criteria selected. Then, after valuation, the weighted linear sum as final decision technique is used. After defining the model has been applied to a particular region, the agrarian region of Navalmoral de la Mata. From the information collected concerning to the criteria previously selected in the model, we proceeded to value each. With these values and assigned weights, the model has been applied to finally get the territories and forest species with greater aptitude for the development of a project to implement energy crops.