Empirical analysis of traffic volume for the application of the options theory to highway concessions

*************************************************************************************** EL WCTR es un Congreso de reconocido prestigio internacional en el ámbito de la investigación del transporte que hasta el 2010 publicaba sus libros de abstracts con ISBN. Por ello consideramos que debería seguir teníendose en cuenta para los indicadores de calidad ******************************************************************************************* Investment projects in the field of transportation infrastructures have a high degree of uncertainty and require an important amount of resources. In highway concessions in particular, the calculation of the Net Present Value (NPV) of the project by means of the discount of cash flows, may lead to erroneous results when the project incorporates certain flexibility. In these cases, the theory of real options is an alternative tool for the valuation of concessions. When the variable that generates uncertainty (in our case, the traffic) follows a random walk (or Geometric Brownian Motion), we can calculate the value of the options embedded in the contract starting directly from the process followed by that variable. This procedure notably simplifies the calculation method. In order to test the hypothesis of the evolution of traffic as a Geometric Brownian Motion, we have used the available series of traffic in Spanish highways, and we have applied the Augmented Dickey-Fuller approach, which is the most widely used test for this kind of study. The main result of the analysis is that we cannot reject the hypothesis that traffic follows a Geometric Brownian Motion in the majority of both toll highways and free highways in Spain.

Estudio de las formas de aplicación de la fotografía sobre los materiales pétreos para la arquitectura = Study of photography application methods over architectural stony materials

Desde que el Hombre era morador de las cavernas ha sido manifiesto su deseo innato por grabar y reproducir "instantáneas con las que perpetuarse o sobre las que mirarse ". La aparición y desarrollo de la fotografía como medio para poder captar y fijar "la imagen directa de la realidad circundante " pronto se convierte en un nuevo lenguaje estético y poético que permite al artista la interpretación y reflexión de lo observado. Se imprime a la imagen el carácter de la mirada del fotógrafo, estableciendo un diálogo conceptual con el juego de luces. La presente Tesis plantea la creación de una nueva piel de arquitectura mediante la impresión fotográfica sobre materiales pétreos. La búsqueda de la expresividad de los materiales como soporte de expresión artística implica un cambio de escala al trasladar la instantánea fotográfica a la arquitectura y la aplicación de un nuevo soporte al imprimir la fotografía sobre materiales arquitectónicos. Se justifica la elección del dispositivo láser CO2 como sistema de impresión fotográfica sobre los materiales pétreos arquitectónicos, como la técnica que permite la unión física de la imagen y el proyecto arquitectónico, generando un valor añadido a través del arte de la fotografía. Se justifica la elección de los materiales investigados, Silestone® Blanco Zeus y GRC® con TX Active® Aria, de forma que la investigación de esta nueva piel de arquitectura abarca tanto la envolvente del edificio como su volumen interior, permitiendo cerrar el círculo arquitectónico "in&out" y dota al proyecto arquitectónico de un valor añadido al introducir conceptos sostenibles de carácter estético y medioambiental. Se realiza una consulta a las empresas del sector arquitectónico relacionadas directamente con la producción y distribución de los materiales Silestone® y GRC®, así como a las empresas especializadas en sistemas de impresión fotográfica sobre materiales, acerca del estado del arte. Se recorre la Historia de la fotografía desde sus orígenes hasta el desarrollo de la era digital y se analiza su condición artística. Se recopilan los sistemas de impresión fotográfica que han evolucionado en paralelo con los dispositivos de captura de la instantánea fotográfica y se describe en profundidad el sistema de impresión fotográfica mediante dispositivo láser CO2. Se describen los procesos de fabricación, las características técnicas, cualidades y aplicaciones de los materiales pétreos arquitectónicos Silestone® Blanco Zeus y GRC® con TX Active® Aria. Se explica la técnica utilizada para la captación de la imagen fotográfica, su justificación artística y su proceso de impresión mediante dispositivo láser CO2 bajo diferentes parámetros sobre muestras de los materiales arquitectónicos investigados. Se comprueba la viabilidad de desarrollo de la nueva piel de arquitectura sobre Silestone® Blanco Zeus y GRC® con TX Active® Aria sometiendo a las piezas impresas bajo diferentes parámetros a tres ensayos de laboratorio. En cada uno de ellos se concreta el objetivo y procedimiento del ensayo, la enumeración de las muestras ensayadas y los parámetros bajo los que han sido impresas, el análisis de los resultados del ensayo y las conclusiones del ensayo. Ensayo de amplitud térmica. Se determina el grado de afectación de las imágenes impresas bajo la acción de contrastes térmicos. Series de muestras de Silestone® Blanco Zeus y GRC® con TX Active® Aria impresas con láser CO2 se someten a ciclos de contraste frío-calor de 12 horas de duración para una amplitud térmica total de 102°C. Se realiza una toma sistemática de fotografías microscópicas con lupa de aumento de cada pieza antes y después de los ciclos frío-calor y la observación de las transformaciones que experimentan los materiales bajo la acción del láser CO2. Ensayo de exposición a la acción de la radiación ultravioleta (UV). Se determina el grado de afectación de las imágenes impresas al activar la capacidad autolimpiante de partículas orgánicas. Una serie de muestras de GRC® con TX Active® Aria impresa con láser CO2 se someten a ciclos de exposición de radiación ultravioleta de 26 horas de duración. Se somete la serie a un procedimiento de activación del aditivo TX Active®. Se simula la contaminación orgánica mediante la aplicación controlada de Rodamina B, tinte orgánico, y se simula la radiación UV mediante el empleo de una bombilla de emisión de rayos ultravioleta. Se realiza una toma sistemática de fotografías macroscópicas de la serie de muestras ensayadas: antes de aplicación de la Rodamina B, momento 00:00h, momento 04:00h y momento 26:00h del ensayo. Se procede a la descarga y análisis del histograma de las fotografías como registro de la actividad fotocatalítica. Ensayo de la capacidad autodescontaminante del GRC® con TX Active® impreso con láser CO2. Se comprueba si la capacidad autodescontaminante del GRC® con TX Active® se ve alterada como consecuencia de la impresión de la imagen fotográfica impresa con láser CO2. Serie de muestras de GRC® con TX Active® Aria impresa con láser CO2 se someten a test de capacidad autodescontaminante: atmósfera controlada y contaminada con óxidos de nitrógeno en los que se coloca cada pieza ensayada bajo la acción de una lámpara de emisión de radiación ultravioleta (UV). Se registra la actividad fotocatalítica en base a la variación de concentración de óxido de nitrógeno. Se recopila el análisis e interpretación de los resultados de los ensayos de laboratorio y se elaboran las conclusiones generales de la investigación. Se sintetizan las futuras líneas de investigación que, a partir de las investigaciones realizadas y de sus conclusiones generales, podrían desarrollarse en el ámbito de la impresión fotográfica sobre materiales arquitectónicos. Se describe el rendimiento tecnológico y artístico generado por las investigaciones previas que han dado origen y desarrollo a la Tesis Doctoral. ABSTRACT Since ancient time, humanity has been driven by an innate wish to reproduce and engrave "snapshots that could help to perpetúate or to look at one self". Photography's birth and its development as a mean to capture and fix "the direct image of the surrounding reality" quickly becomes a new aesthetical and poetical language allowing the artist to interpret and think over what has been observed. The photographer's eye is imprinted onto the image, and so the conceptual dialogue between the artist and the light beams begins. The current thesis suggests the creation of a new architectural skin through photography imprinting over stony materials. The search for material's expressiveness as a medium of artistic expression involves a change of scale as it transfers photographic snapshot into architecture and the use of a new photographic printing support over architectural materials. CO2 laser is the chosen printing system for this technique as it allows the physical union of the image and the architectonic project, generating an added value through the art of photography. The researched materials selected were Silestone®, Blanco Zeus and GRC® with TX Active® Aria. This new architectural skin contains the building surrounding as well as its interior volume, closing the architectonic "in & out" circle and adding a value to the project by introducing aesthetical and environmental sustainable concepts. Architecture companies related to the production and distribution of materials like Silestone® and GRC®, as well as companies specialized in photography printing over materials were consulted to obtain a State of the Art. A thorough analysis of photography's History from its origins to the digital era development was made and its artistic condition was studied in this thesis. In this study the author also makes a compilation of several photographic printing systems that evolved together with photographic snapshot devices. The CO2 laser-based photographic printing system is also described in depth. Regarding stony materials of architecture like Silestone®, Blanco Zeus and GRC® with TX Active® Aria, the present study also describes their manufacture processes as well as technical features, quality and application. There is also an explanation about the technique to capture the photographic image, its artistic justification and its CO2 laser-based printing system over the researched materials under different parameters. We also tested the feasibility of this new architectural skin over Silestone® Blanco Zeus and GRC® with TX Active® Aria. The pieces were tested under different parameters in three laboratory trials. Each trial comprises of an explanation of its objective and its process, the samples were numbered and the printing parameters were specified. Finally, with the analysis of the results some conclusions were drawn. In the thermal amplitude trial we tried to determine how printed images were affected as a result of the action of thermal contrasts. Series of samples of Silestone® Blanco Zeus and GRC® with TX Active® Aria printed with CO2 laser were subjected to several 12h warm-cold cycles for thermal total amplitude of 102oc. Each sample was captured systematically with microscopic enhanced lenses before and after cold-warm cycles. The changes experienced by these materials under the effect of CO2 laser were observed and recorded. Trial regarding the Ultraviolet Radiation (UR) effect on images. We determined to which extent printed images were affected once the self-cleaning organic particles were activated. This time GRC® with TX Active® Aria samples printed with CO2 laser were exposed to a 26h UR cycle. The samples were subjected to the activation of TX Active® additive. Through the controlled application of Rodamine B and organic dye we were able to simulate the organic contamination process. UR was simulated using an ultraviolet beam emission bulb. A systematic capture of macroscopic pictures of the tested sample series was performed at different time points: before Rodamine B application, at moment 00:00h, moment 04:00h and moment 26:00h of the trial. Picture's histogram was downloaded and analyzed as a log of photocatalytic activity. Trial regarding the self-decontaminating ability of GRC® with TX Active® printed with CO2 laser. We tested if this self-decontaminating ability is altered as a result of CO2 laser printed image. GRC® with TX Active® Aria samples printed with CO2 laser, were subject to self-decontaminating ability tests with controlled and nitrogen oxide contaminated atmosphere. Each piece was put under the action of an UR emission lamp. Photocatalytic activity was recorded according to the variation in nitrogen oxide concentration. The results of the trial and their interpretation as well as the general conclusions of the research are also compiled in the present study. Study conclusions enable to draw future research lines of potential applications of photographic printing over architecture materials. Previous research generated an artistic and technological outcome that led to the development of this doctoral thesis.

Mixing effect on volume growth of Fagus sylvatica and Pinus sylvestris is modulated by stand density

Despite the increasing relevance of mixed stands due to their potential benefits; little information is available with regard to the effect of mixtures on yield in forest systems. Hence, it is necessary to study inter-specific relationships, and the resulting yield in mixed stands, which may vary with stand development, site or stand density, etc. In Spain, the province of Navarra is considered one of the biodiversity reservoirs; however, mixed forests occupy only a small area, probably as a consequence of management plans, in which there is an excessive focus on the productivity aspect, favoring the presence of pure stands of the most marketable species. The aim of this paper is to study how growth efficiencies of beech (Fagus sylvatica) and pine (Pinus sylvestris) are modified by the admixture of the other species and to determine whether stand density modifies interspecific relationships and to what extent. Two models were fitted from Spanish National Forest Inventory data, for P. sylvestris and F. sylvatica respectively, which relate the growth efficiency of the species, i.e. the volume increment of the species divided by the species proportion by area, with dominant height, quadratic mean diameter, stocking degree, and the species proportions by area of each species. Growth efficiency of pine increased with the admixture of beech, decreasing this positive effect when stocking degree increased. However, the positive effect of pine admixture on beech growth was greater at higher stocking degrees. Growth efficiency of beech was also dependent on stand dominant height, resulting in a net negative mixing effect when stand dominant heights and stocking degrees were simultaneously low. There is a relatively large range of species proportions and stocking degrees which results in transgressive overyielding: higher volume increments in mixed stands than that of the most productive pure pine stands. We concluded that stocking degree is a key factor in between-species interactions, being the effects of mixing not always greater at higher stand densities, but it depends on species composition.

Radio-echo sounding and ice volume estimates of western Nordenskiöld Land glaciers, Svalbard

As part of ongoing work to obtain a reliable estimate of the total ice volume of Svalbard glaciers and their potential contribution to sea-level rise, we present here volume calculations, with detailed error estimates, for ten glaciers on western Nordenskiöld Land, central Spitsbergen, Svalbard. The volume estimates are based upon a dense net of GPR-retrieved ice thickness data collected over several field campaigns spanning the period 1999-2012. On the basis of the pattern of scattering in theradargrams, we also analyse the hydrothermal structure of these glaciers.

Increasing the accuracy of positive displacement meters for the measurement of volume in liquid hydrocarbon logistics

Accuracy in the liquid hydrocarbons custody transfer is mandatory because it has a great economic impact. By far the most accurate meter is the positive displacement (PD) meter. Increasing such an accuracy may adversely affect the cost of the custody transfer, unless simple models are developed in order to lower the cost, which is the purpose of this work. PD meter consists of a fixed volume rotating chamber. For each turn a pulse is counted, hence, the measured volume is the number of pulses times the volume of the chamber. It does not coincide with the real volume, so corrections have to be made. All the corrections are grouped by a meter factor. Among corrections highlights the slippage flow. By solving the Navier-Stokes equations one can find an analytical expression for this flow. It is neither easy nor cheap to apply straightforward the slippage correction; therefore we have made a simple model where slippage is regarded as a single parameter with dimension of time. The model has been tested for several PD meters. In our careful experiments, the meter factor grows with temperature at a constant pace of 8?10?5?ºC?1. Be warned

Functional and effective connectivity in MEG. Application to the study of epilepsy

Nuestro cerebro contiene cerca de 1014 sinapsis neuronales. Esta enorme cantidad de conexiones proporciona un entorno ideal donde distintos grupos de neuronas se sincronizan transitoriamente para provocar la aparición de funciones cognitivas, como la percepción, el aprendizaje o el pensamiento. Comprender la organización de esta compleja red cerebral en base a datos neurofisiológicos, representa uno de los desafíos más importantes y emocionantes en el campo de la neurociencia. Se han propuesto recientemente varias medidas para evaluar cómo se comunican las diferentes partes del cerebro a diversas escalas (células individuales, columnas corticales, o áreas cerebrales). Podemos clasificarlos, según su simetría, en dos grupos: por una parte, la medidas simétricas, como la correlación, la coherencia o la sincronización de fase, que evalúan la conectividad funcional (FC); mientras que las medidas asimétricas, como la causalidad de Granger o transferencia de entropía, son capaces de detectar la dirección de la interacción, lo que denominamos conectividad efectiva (EC). En la neurociencia moderna ha aumentado el interés por el estudio de las redes funcionales cerebrales, en gran medida debido a la aparición de estos nuevos algoritmos que permiten analizar la interdependencia entre señales temporales, además de la emergente teoría de redes complejas y la introducción de técnicas novedosas, como la magnetoencefalografía (MEG), para registrar datos neurofisiológicos con gran resolución. Sin embargo, nos hallamos ante un campo novedoso que presenta aun varias cuestiones metodológicas sin resolver, algunas de las cuales trataran de abordarse en esta tesis. En primer lugar, el creciente número de aproximaciones para determinar la existencia de FC/EC entre dos o más señales temporales, junto con la complejidad matemática de las herramientas de análisis, hacen deseable organizarlas todas en un paquete software intuitivo y fácil de usar. Aquí presento HERMES (http://hermes.ctb.upm.es), una toolbox en MatlabR, diseñada precisamente con este fin. Creo que esta herramienta será de gran ayuda para todos aquellos investigadores que trabajen en el campo emergente del análisis de conectividad cerebral y supondrá un gran valor para la comunidad científica. La segunda cuestión practica que se aborda es el estudio de la sensibilidad a las fuentes cerebrales profundas a través de dos tipos de sensores MEG: gradiómetros planares y magnetómetros, esta aproximación además se combina con un enfoque metodológico, utilizando dos índices de sincronización de fase: phase locking value (PLV) y phase lag index (PLI), este ultimo menos sensible a efecto la conducción volumen. Por lo tanto, se compara su comportamiento al estudiar las redes cerebrales, obteniendo que magnetómetros y PLV presentan, respectivamente, redes más densamente conectadas que gradiómetros planares y PLI, por los valores artificiales que crea el problema de la conducción de volumen. Sin embargo, cuando se trata de caracterizar redes epilépticas, el PLV ofrece mejores resultados, debido a la gran dispersión de las redes obtenidas con PLI. El análisis de redes complejas ha proporcionado nuevos conceptos que mejoran caracterización de la interacción de sistemas dinámicos. Se considera que una red está compuesta por nodos, que simbolizan sistemas, cuyas interacciones se representan por enlaces, y su comportamiento y topología puede caracterizarse por un elevado número de medidas. Existe evidencia teórica y empírica de que muchas de ellas están fuertemente correlacionadas entre sí. Por lo tanto, se ha conseguido seleccionar un pequeño grupo que caracteriza eficazmente estas redes, y condensa la información redundante. Para el análisis de redes funcionales, la selección de un umbral adecuado para decidir si un determinado valor de conectividad de la matriz de FC es significativo y debe ser incluido para un análisis posterior, se convierte en un paso crucial. En esta tesis, se han obtenido resultados más precisos al utilizar un test de subrogadas, basado en los datos, para evaluar individualmente cada uno de los enlaces, que al establecer a priori un umbral fijo para la densidad de conexiones. Finalmente, todas estas cuestiones se han aplicado al estudio de la epilepsia, caso práctico en el que se analizan las redes funcionales MEG, en estado de reposo, de dos grupos de pacientes epilépticos (generalizada idiopática y focal frontal) en comparación con sujetos control sanos. La epilepsia es uno de los trastornos neurológicos más comunes, con más de 55 millones de afectados en el mundo. Esta enfermedad se caracteriza por la predisposición a generar ataques epilépticos de actividad neuronal anormal y excesiva o bien síncrona, y por tanto, es el escenario perfecto para este tipo de análisis al tiempo que presenta un gran interés tanto desde el punto de vista clínico como de investigación. Los resultados manifiestan alteraciones especificas en la conectividad y un cambio en la topología de las redes en cerebros epilépticos, desplazando la importancia del ‘foco’ a la ‘red’, enfoque que va adquiriendo relevancia en las investigaciones recientes sobre epilepsia. ABSTRACT There are about 1014 neuronal synapses in the human brain. This huge number of connections provides the substrate for neuronal ensembles to become transiently synchronized, producing the emergence of cognitive functions such as perception, learning or thinking. Understanding the complex brain network organization on the basis of neuroimaging data represents one of the most important and exciting challenges for systems neuroscience. Several measures have been recently proposed to evaluate at various scales (single cells, cortical columns, or brain areas) how the different parts of the brain communicate. We can classify them, according to their symmetry, into two groups: symmetric measures, such as correlation, coherence or phase synchronization indexes, evaluate functional connectivity (FC); and on the other hand, the asymmetric ones, such as Granger causality or transfer entropy, are able to detect effective connectivity (EC) revealing the direction of the interaction. In modern neurosciences, the interest in functional brain networks has increased strongly with the onset of new algorithms to study interdependence between time series, the advent of modern complex network theory and the introduction of powerful techniques to record neurophysiological data, such as magnetoencephalography (MEG). However, when analyzing neurophysiological data with this approach several questions arise. In this thesis, I intend to tackle some of the practical open problems in the field. First of all, the increase in the number of time series analysis algorithms to study brain FC/EC, along with their mathematical complexity, creates the necessity of arranging them into a single, unified toolbox that allow neuroscientists, neurophysiologists and researchers from related fields to easily access and make use of them. I developed such a toolbox for this aim, it is named HERMES (http://hermes.ctb.upm.es), and encompasses several of the most common indexes for the assessment of FC and EC running for MatlabR environment. I believe that this toolbox will be very helpful to all the researchers working in the emerging field of brain connectivity analysis and will entail a great value for the scientific community. The second important practical issue tackled in this thesis is the evaluation of the sensitivity to deep brain sources of two different MEG sensors: planar gradiometers and magnetometers, in combination with the related methodological approach, using two phase synchronization indexes: phase locking value (PLV) y phase lag index (PLI), the latter one being less sensitive to volume conduction effect. Thus, I compared their performance when studying brain networks, obtaining that magnetometer sensors and PLV presented higher artificial values as compared with planar gradiometers and PLI respectively. However, when it came to characterize epileptic networks it was the PLV which gives better results, as PLI FC networks where very sparse. Complex network analysis has provided new concepts which improved characterization of interacting dynamical systems. With this background, networks could be considered composed of nodes, symbolizing systems, whose interactions with each other are represented by edges. A growing number of network measures is been applied in network analysis. However, there is theoretical and empirical evidence that many of these indexes are strongly correlated with each other. Therefore, in this thesis I reduced them to a small set, which could more efficiently characterize networks. Within this framework, selecting an appropriate threshold to decide whether a certain connectivity value of the FC matrix is significant and should be included in the network analysis becomes a crucial step, in this thesis, I used the surrogate data tests to make an individual data-driven evaluation of each of the edges significance and confirmed more accurate results than when just setting to a fixed value the density of connections. All these methodologies were applied to the study of epilepsy, analysing resting state MEG functional networks, in two groups of epileptic patients (generalized and focal epilepsy) that were compared to matching control subjects. Epilepsy is one of the most common neurological disorders, with more than 55 million people affected worldwide, characterized by its predisposition to generate epileptic seizures of abnormal excessive or synchronous neuronal activity, and thus, this scenario and analysis, present a great interest from both the clinical and the research perspective. Results revealed specific disruptions in connectivity and network topology and evidenced that networks’ topology is changed in epileptic brains, supporting the shift from ‘focus’ to ‘networks’ which is gaining importance in modern epilepsy research.

Estimate of the total ice volume of Svalbard glaciers and their potential contribution to sea-level rise = Estimación del volumen de hielo de Svalbard y su contribución potencial a la subida del nivel del mar

El objetivo final de las investigaciones recogidas en esta tesis doctoral es la estimación del volumen de hielo total de los ms de 1600 glaciares de Svalbard, en el Ártico, y, con ello, su contribución potencial a la subida del nivel medio del mar en un escenario de calentamiento global. Los cálculos más exactos del volumen de un glaciar se efectúan a partir de medidas del espesor de hielo obtenidas con georradar. Sin embargo, estas medidas no son viables para conjuntos grandes de glaciares, debido al coste, dificultades logísticas y tiempo requerido por ellas, especialmente en las regiones polares o de montaña. Frente a ello, la determinación de áreas de glaciares a partir de imágenes de satélite sí es viable a escalas global y regional, por lo que las relaciones de escala volumen-área constituyen el mecanismo más adecuado para las estimaciones de volúmenes globales y regionales, como las realizadas para Svalbard en esta tesis. Como parte del trabajo de tesis, hemos elaborado un inventario de los glaciares de Svalbard en los que se han efectuado radioecosondeos, y hemos realizado los cálculos del volumen de hielo de más de 80 cuencas glaciares de Svalbard a partir de datos de georradar. Estos volúmenes han sido utilizados para calibrar las relaciones volumen-área desarrolladas en la tesis. Los datos de georradar han sido obtenidos en diversas campañas llevadas a cabo por grupos de investigación internacionales, gran parte de ellas lideradas por el Grupo de Simulación Numérica en Ciencias e Ingeniería de la Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, del que forman parte la doctoranda y los directores de tesis. Además, se ha desarrollado una metodología para la estimación del error en el cálculo de volumen, que aporta una novedosa técnica de cálculo del error de interpolación para conjuntos de datos del tipo de los obtenidos con perfiles de georradar, que presentan distribuciones espaciales con unos patrones muy característicos pero con una densidad de datos muy irregular. Hemos obtenido en este trabajo de tesis relaciones de escala específicas para los glaciares de Svalbard, explorando la sensibilidad de los parámetros a diferentes morfologías glaciares, e incorporando nuevas variables. En particular, hemos efectuado experimentos orientados a verificar si las relaciones de escala obtenidas caracterizando los glaciares individuales por su tamaño, pendiente o forma implican diferencias significativas en el volumen total estimado para los glaciares de Svalbard, y si esta partición implica algún patrón significativo en los parámetros de las relaciones de escala. Nuestros resultados indican que, para un valor constante del factor multiplicativo de la relacin de escala, el exponente que afecta al área en la relación volumen-área decrece según aumentan la pendiente y el factor de forma, mientras que las clasificaciones basadas en tamaño no muestran un patrón significativo. Esto significa que los glaciares con mayores pendientes y de tipo circo son menos sensibles a los cambios de área. Además, los volúmenes de la población total de los glaciares de Svalbard calculados con fraccionamiento en grupos por tamaño y pendiente son un 1-4% menores que los obtenidas usando la totalidad de glaciares sin fraccionamiento en grupos, mientras que los volúmenes calculados fraccionando por forma son un 3-5% mayores. También realizamos experimentos multivariable para obtener estimaciones óptimas del volumen total mediante una combinación de distintos predictores. Nuestros resultados muestran que un modelo potencial simple volumen-área explica el 98.6% de la varianza. Sólo el predictor longitud del glaciar proporciona significación estadística cuando se usa además del área del glaciar, aunque el coeficiente de determinación disminuye en comparación con el modelo más simple V-A. El predictor intervalo de altitud no proporciona información adicional cuando se usa además del área del glaciar. Nuestras estimaciones del volumen de la totalidad de glaciares de Svalbard usando las diferentes relaciones de escala obtenidas en esta tesis oscilan entre 6890 y 8106 km3, con errores relativos del orden de 6.6-8.1%. El valor medio de nuestras estimaciones, que puede ser considerado como nuestra mejor estimación del volumen, es de 7.504 km3. En términos de equivalente en nivel del mar (SLE), nuestras estimaciones corresponden a una subida potencial del nivel del mar de 17-20 mm SLE, promediando 19_2 mm SLE, donde el error corresponde al error en volumen antes indicado. En comparación, las estimaciones usando las relaciones V-A de otros autores son de 13-26 mm SLE, promediando 20 _ 2 mm SLE, donde el error representa la desviación estándar de las distintas estimaciones. ABSTRACT The final aim of the research involved in this doctoral thesis is the estimation of the total ice volume of the more than 1600 glaciers of Svalbard, in the Arctic region, and thus their potential contribution to sea-level rise under a global warming scenario. The most accurate calculations of glacier volumes are those based on ice-thicknesses measured by groundpenetrating radar (GPR). However, such measurements are not viable for very large sets of glaciers, due to their cost, logistic difficulties and time requirements, especially in polar or mountain regions. On the contrary, the calculation of glacier areas from satellite images is perfectly viable at global and regional scales, so the volume-area scaling relationships are the most useful tool to determine glacier volumes at global and regional scales, as done for Svalbard in this PhD thesis. As part of the PhD work, we have compiled an inventory of the radio-echo sounded glaciers in Svalbard, and we have performed the volume calculations for more than 80 glacier basins in Svalbard from GPR data. These volumes have been used to calibrate the volume-area relationships derived in this dissertation. Such GPR data have been obtained during fieldwork campaigns carried out by international teams, often lead by the Group of Numerical Simulation in Science and Engineering of the Technical University of Madrid, to which the PhD candidate and her supervisors belong. Furthermore, we have developed a methodology to estimate the error in the volume calculation, which includes a novel technique to calculate the interpolation error for data sets of the type produced by GPR profiling, which show very characteristic data distribution patterns but with very irregular data density. We have derived in this dissertation scaling relationships specific for Svalbard glaciers, exploring the sensitivity of the scaling parameters to different glacier morphologies and adding new variables. In particular, we did experiments aimed to verify whether scaling relationships obtained through characterization of individual glacier shape, slope and size imply significant differences in the estimated volume of the total population of Svalbard glaciers, and whether this partitioning implies any noticeable pattern in the scaling relationship parameters. Our results indicate that, for a fixed value of the factor in the scaling relationship, the exponent of the area in the volume-area relationship decreases as slope and shape increase, whereas size-based classifications do not reveal any clear trend. This means that steep slopes and cirque-type glaciers are less sensitive to changes in glacier area. Moreover, the volumes of the total population of Svalbard glaciers calculated according to partitioning in subgroups by size and slope are smaller (by 1-4%) than that obtained considering all glaciers without partitioning into subgroups, whereas the volumes calculated according to partitioning in subgroups by shape are 3-5% larger. We also did multivariate experiments attempting to optimally predict the volume of Svalbard glaciers from a combination of different predictors. Our results show that a simple power-type V-A model explains 98.6% of the variance. Only the predictor glacier length provides statistical significance when used in addition to the predictor glacier area, though the coefficient of determination decreases as compared with the simpler V-A model. The predictor elevation range did not provide any additional information when used in addition to glacier area. Our estimates of the volume of the entire population of Svalbard glaciers using the different scaling relationships that we have derived along this thesis range within 6890-8106 km3, with estimated relative errors in total volume of the order of 6.6-8.1% The average value of all of our estimates, which could be used as a best estimate for the volume, is 7,504 km3. In terms of sea-level equivalent (SLE), our volume estimates correspond to a potential contribution to sea-level rise within 17-20 mm SLE, averaging 19 _ 2 mm SLE, where the quoted error corresponds to our estimated relative error in volume. For comparison, the estimates using the V-A scaling relations found in the literature range within 13-26 mm SLE, averaging 20 _ 2 mm SLE, where the quoted error represents the standard deviation of the different estimates.

Red Cell Volume Expansion at Altitude: A Meta-analysis and Monte Carlo Simulation

Meta-análisis del volumen de eritrocitos en altitud

Ice volume changes (1936-1990-2007) and ground-penetrating radar studies of Ariebreen, Hornsund, Spitsbergen

Ariebreen is a small (0.37 km2) valley glacier located in southern Spitsbergen. Our ground-penetrating radar surveys of the glacier show that it is less than 30 m thick on average, with a maximum thickness of 82 m, and it appears to be entirely cold. By analysing digital terrain models of the ice surface from different dates, we determine the area and volume changes during two periods, 1936-1990 and 1990-2007. The total ice volume of the glacier has decreased by 73% during the entire period 1936-2007, which is equivalent to a mean mass balance rate of -0.6190.17 m/yr w.eq. The glacier thinning rate has increased markedly between the first and second periods, from -0.5090.22 to -0.9590.17 m/yr w.eq.

Multiple proportion case-basing driven CBRE and its application in the evaluation of possible failure of firms

Case-based reasoning (CBR) is a unique tool for the evaluation of possible failure of firms (EOPFOF) for its eases of interpretation and implementation. Ensemble computing, a variation of group decision in society, provides a potential means of improving predictive performance of CBR-based EOPFOF. This research aims to integrate bagging and proportion case-basing with CBR to generate a method of proportion bagging CBR for EOPFOF. Diverse multiple case bases are first produced by multiple case-basing, in which a volume parameter is introduced to control the size of each case base. Then, the classic case retrieval algorithm is implemented to generate diverse member CBR predictors. Majority voting, the most frequently used mechanism in ensemble computing, is finally used to aggregate outputs of member CBR predictors in order to produce final prediction of the CBR ensemble. In an empirical experiment, we statistically validated the results of the CBR ensemble from multiple case bases by comparing them with those of multivariate discriminant analysis, logistic regression, classic CBR, the best member CBR predictor and bagging CBR ensemble. The results from Chinese EOPFOF prior to 3 years indicate that the new CBR ensemble, which significantly improved CBRs predictive ability, outperformed all the comparative methods.

Analysis of the traded volume drivers of the Iberian power futures market

A comprehensive assessment of the liquidity development in the Iberian power futures market managed by OMIP (“Operador do Mercado Ibérico de Energia, Pólo Português”) in its first 4 years of existence is performed. This market started on July 2006. A regression model tracking the evolution of the traded volumes in the continuous market is built as a function of 12 potential liquidity drivers. The only significant drivers are the traded volumes in OMIP compulsory auctions, the traded volumes in the “Over The Counter” (OTC) market, and the OTC cleared volumes in OMIP clearing house (OMIClear). Furthermore, the enrollment of financial members shows strong correlation with the traded volumes in the continuous market. OMIP liquidity is still far from the levels reached by the most mature European markets (Nord Pool and EEX). The market operator and its clearing house could develop efficient marketing actions to attract new entrants active in the spot market (energy intensive industries, suppliers, and small producers) as well as volumes from the opaque OTC market, and to improve the performance of existing illiquid products. An active dialogue with all the stakeholders (market participants, spot market operator, and supervisory authorities) will help to implement such actions.

Ice volume estimates from ground-penetrating radar surveys, western Nordenskiöld Land glaciers, Svalbard

As part of ongoing work within the SvalGlac project aimed to obtain a reliable estimate of the total ice volume of Svalbard glaciers and their potential contribution to sea level rise, in this contribution we present volume calculations, with detailed error estimates, for ten glaciers on western Nordenskiöld Land, central Spitsbergen, Svalbard. The volume estimates are based upon a dense net of GPR-retrieved ice thickness data collected over several field campaigns spanning the period 1999-2012, all of them except one within 2010-2012. The total area and volume of the ensemble are 113.38±0.09 km2 and 10.439±0.185 km3, respectively, while the individual areas, volumes and average ice thickness lie within 2.5-49.1 km2, 0.08-5.48 km3 and 29-108 m, respectively. The maximum recorded ice thickness, 265±15 m, corresponds to Fridtjovbreen, which has also the largest average thickness (108±1m). Available empirical formulae for Svalbard glaciers overestimate the total volume of these glaciers by 24% with respect to our calculation. On the basis of the pattern of scattering in the radargrams, we also analyse the hydrothermal structure of these glaciers. Nine out of ten are polythermal, while only one is entirely cold.

Ice volume estimates from ground-penetrating radar surveys, Wedel Jarlsberg Land glaciers, Svalbard

One of the aims of the SvalGlac project is to obtain an improved estimate, with reliable error estimates, of the volume of Svalbard glaciers and their potential contribution to sea level rise. As part of this work, we present volume calculations, with detailed error estimates, for eight glaciers on Wedel Jarlsberg Land, southern Spitsbergen, Svalbard. The volume estimates are based upon a dense net of GPR-retrieved ice thickness data collected over several field campaigns spanning the period 2004-2011. The total area and volume of the ensemble are 502.9±18.6 km2 and 80.72±2.85 km3, respectively. Excluding Ariebreen (a tiny glacier, menor que 0.4 km2 in area), the individual areas, volumes and average ice thickness lie within 4.7-141.0 km2, 0.30-25.85 km3 and 64-183 m, respectively. The maximum recorded ice thickness, ca. 619±13 m, is found in Austre Torellbreen. To estimate the ice volume of small non-echo-sounded tributary glaciers, we used a function providing the best fit to the ice thickness along the centre line of a collection of such tributaries where echo-soundings were available, and assuming parabolic cross-sections. We did some tests on the effect on the measured ice volumes of the distinct radio-wave velocity (RWV) of firn as compared to ice, and cold versus temperate ice, concluding that the changes in volume implied by such corrections were within the error bounds of our volume estimate using a constant RWV for the entire glacier inferred from common mid-point measurements on the upper ablation area.

On the errors involved in the estimate of glacier ice volume from ice thickness data

The assessment of the glacier thickness is one of the most widespread applications of radioglaciology, and is the basis for estimating the glacier volume. The accuracy of the measurement of ice thickness, the distribution of profiles over the glacier and the accuracy of the boundary delineation of the glacier are the most important factors determining the error in the evaluation of the glacier volume. The aim of this study is to get an accurate estimate of the error incurred in the estimate of glacier volume from GPR-retrieved ice-thickness data.

Ground-penetrating radar surveys and ice volume estimates of Wedel Jarlsberg Land glaciers, Svalbard

We present volume calculations, with detailed error estimates, for eight glaciers on Wedel Jarlsberg Land, southern Spitsbergen, Svalbard, and compare them to those obtained from area-volume scaling relationships. The volume estimates are based upon a dense net of GPR-retrieved ice thickness data collected over several field campaigns spanning the period 2004-2011.