9 resultados para analytical epidemiological studies

em Universidad Politécnica de Madrid


Relevância:

80.00% 80.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

In order to determine the presence of Fusarium spp. in atmospheric dust and rainfall dust, samples were collected during September 2007, and July, August, and October 2008. The results reveal the prevalence of airborne Fusarium species coming from the atmosphere of the South East coast of Spain. Five different Fusarium species were isolated from the settling dust: Fusarium oxysporum, F. solani, F. equiseti, F. dimerum, and F. proliferatum. Moreover, rainwater samples were obtained during significant rainfall events in January and February 2009. Using the dilution-plate method, 12 fungal genera were identified from these rainwater samples. Specific analyses of the rainwater revealed the presence of three species of Fusarium: F. oxysporum, F. proliferatum and F. equiseti. A total of 57 isolates of Fusarium spp. obtained from both rainwater and atmospheric rainfall dust sampling were inoculated onto melon (Cucumis melo L.) cv. Piñonet and tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum Mill.) cv. San Pedro. These species were chosen because they are the main herbaceous crops in Almeria province. The results presented in this work indicate strongly that spores or propagules of Fusarium are able to cross the continental barrier carried by winds from the Sahara (Africa) to crop or coastal lands in Europe. Results show differences in the pathogenicity of the isolates tested. Both hosts showed root rot when inoculated with different species of Fusarium, although fresh weight measurements did not bring any information about the pathogenicity. The findings presented above are strong indications that long-distance transmission of Fusarium propagules may occur. Diseases caused by species of Fusarium are common in these areas. They were in the past, and are still today, a problem for greenhouses crops in Almería, and many species have been listed as pathogens on agricultural crops in this region. Saharan air masses dominate the Mediterranean regions. The evidence of long distance dispersal of Fusarium spp. by atmospheric dust and rainwater together with their proved pathogenicity must be taken into account in epidemiological studies.

Relevância:

80.00% 80.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

This paper presents a time-domain stochastic system identification method based on maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) with the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm. The effectiveness of this structural identification method is evaluated through numerical simulation in the context of the ASCE benchmark problem on structural health monitoring. The benchmark structure is a four-story, two-bay by two-bay steel-frame scale model structure built in the Earthquake Engineering Research Laboratory at the University of British Columbia, Canada. This paper focuses on Phase I of the analytical benchmark studies. A MATLAB-based finite element analysis code obtained from the IASC-ASCE SHM Task Group web site is used to calculate the dynamic response of the prototype structure. A number of 100 simulations have been made using this MATLAB-based finite element analysis code in order to evaluate the proposed identification method. There are several techniques to realize system identification. In this work, stochastic subspace identification (SSI)method has been used for comparison. SSI identification method is a well known method and computes accurate estimates of the modal parameters. The principles of the SSI identification method has been introduced in the paper and next the proposed MLE with EM algorithm has been explained in detail. The advantages of the proposed structural identification method can be summarized as follows: (i) the method is based on maximum likelihood, that implies minimum variance estimates; (ii) EM is a computational simpler estimation procedure than other optimization algorithms; (iii) estimate more parameters than SSI, and these estimates are accurate. On the contrary, the main disadvantages of the method are: (i) EM algorithm is an iterative procedure and it consumes time until convergence is reached; and (ii) this method needs starting values for the parameters. Modal parameters (eigenfrequencies, damping ratios and mode shapes) of the benchmark structure have been estimated using both the SSI method and the proposed MLE + EM method. The numerical results show that the proposed method identifies eigenfrequencies, damping ratios and mode shapes reasonably well even in the presence of 10% measurement noises. These modal parameters are more accurate than the SSI estimated modal parameters.

Relevância:

80.00% 80.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

La mejora de la calidad del aire es una tarea eminentemente interdisciplinaria. Dada la gran variedad de ciencias y partes involucradas, dicha mejora requiere de herramientas de evaluación simples y completamente integradas. La modelización para la evaluación integrada (integrated assessment modeling) ha demostrado ser una solución adecuada para la descripción de los sistemas de contaminación atmosférica puesto que considera cada una de las etapas involucradas: emisiones, química y dispersión atmosférica, impactos ambientales asociados y potencial de disminución. Varios modelos de evaluación integrada ya están disponibles a escala continental, cubriendo cada una de las etapas antesmencionadas, siendo el modelo GAINS (Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies) el más reconocido y usado en el contexto europeo de toma de decisiones medioambientales. Sin embargo, el manejo de la calidad del aire a escala nacional/regional dentro del marco de la evaluación integrada es deseable. Esto sin embargo, no se lleva a cabo de manera satisfactoria con modelos a escala europea debido a la falta de resolución espacial o de detalle en los datos auxiliares, principalmente los inventarios de emisión y los patrones meteorológicos, entre otros. El objetivo de esta tesis es presentar los desarrollos en el diseño y aplicación de un modelo de evaluación integrada especialmente concebido para España y Portugal. El modelo AERIS (Atmospheric Evaluation and Research Integrated system for Spain) es capaz de cuantificar perfiles de concentración para varios contaminantes (NO2, SO2, PM10, PM2,5, NH3 y O3), el depósito atmosférico de especies de azufre y nitrógeno así como sus impactos en cultivos, vegetación, ecosistemas y salud como respuesta a cambios porcentuales en las emisiones de sectores relevantes. La versión actual de AERIS considera 20 sectores de emisión, ya sea equivalentes a sectores individuales SNAP o macrosectores, cuya contribución a los niveles de calidad del aire, depósito e impactos han sido modelados a través de matrices fuentereceptor (SRMs). Estas matrices son constantes de proporcionalidad que relacionan cambios en emisiones con diferentes indicadores de calidad del aire y han sido obtenidas a través de parametrizaciones estadísticas de un modelo de calidad del aire (AQM). Para el caso concreto de AERIS, su modelo de calidad del aire “de origen” consistió en el modelo WRF para la meteorología y en el modelo CMAQ para los procesos químico-atmosféricos. La cuantificación del depósito atmosférico, de los impactos en ecosistemas, cultivos, vegetación y salud humana se ha realizado siguiendo las metodologías estándar establecidas bajo los marcos internacionales de negociación, tales como CLRTAP. La estructura de programación está basada en MATLAB®, permitiendo gran compatibilidad con software típico de escritorio comoMicrosoft Excel® o ArcGIS®. En relación con los niveles de calidad del aire, AERIS es capaz de proveer datos de media anual y media mensual, así como el 19o valor horario más alto paraNO2, el 25o valor horario y el 4o valor diario más altos para SO2, el 36o valor diario más alto para PM10, el 26o valor octohorario más alto, SOMO35 y AOT40 para O3. En relación al depósito atmosférico, el depósito acumulado anual por unidad de area de especies de nitrógeno oxidado y reducido al igual que de azufre pueden ser determinados. Cuando los valores anteriormente mencionados se relacionan con características del dominio modelado tales como uso de suelo, cubiertas vegetales y forestales, censos poblacionales o estudios epidemiológicos, un gran número de impactos puede ser calculado. Centrándose en los impactos a ecosistemas y suelos, AERIS es capaz de estimar las superaciones de cargas críticas y las superaciones medias acumuladas para especies de nitrógeno y azufre. Los daños a bosques se calculan como una superación de los niveles críticos de NO2 y SO2 establecidos. Además, AERIS es capaz de cuantificar daños causados por O3 y SO2 en vid, maíz, patata, arroz, girasol, tabaco, tomate, sandía y trigo. Los impactos en salud humana han sido modelados como consecuencia de la exposición a PM2,5 y O3 y cuantificados como pérdidas en la esperanza de vida estadística e indicadores de mortalidad prematura. La exactitud del modelo de evaluación integrada ha sido contrastada estadísticamente con los resultados obtenidos por el modelo de calidad del aire convencional, exhibiendo en la mayoría de los casos un buen nivel de correspondencia. Debido a que la cuantificación de los impactos no es llevada a cabo directamente por el modelo de calidad del aire, un análisis de credibilidad ha sido realizado mediante la comparación de los resultados de AERIS con los de GAINS para un escenario de emisiones determinado. El análisis reveló un buen nivel de correspondencia en las medias y en las distribuciones probabilísticas de los conjuntos de datos. Las pruebas de verificación que fueron aplicadas a AERIS sugieren que los resultados son suficientemente consistentes para ser considerados como razonables y realistas. En conclusión, la principal motivación para la creación del modelo fue el producir una herramienta confiable y a la vez simple para el soporte de las partes involucradas en la toma de decisiones, de cara a analizar diferentes escenarios “y si” con un bajo coste computacional. La interacción con políticos y otros actores dictó encontrar un compromiso entre la complejidad del modeladomedioambiental con el carácter conciso de las políticas, siendo esto algo que AERIS refleja en sus estructuras conceptual y computacional. Finalmente, cabe decir que AERIS ha sido creado para su uso exclusivo dentro de un marco de evaluación y de ninguna manera debe ser considerado como un sustituto de los modelos de calidad del aire ordinarios. ABSTRACT Improving air quality is an eminently inter-disciplinary task. The wide variety of sciences and stakeholders that are involved call for having simple yet fully-integrated and reliable evaluation tools available. Integrated AssessmentModeling has proved to be a suitable solution for the description of air pollution systems due to the fact that it considers each of the involved stages: emissions, atmospheric chemistry, dispersion, environmental impacts and abatement potentials. Some integrated assessment models are available at European scale that cover each of the before mentioned stages, being the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model the most recognized and widely-used within a European policy-making context. However, addressing air quality at the national/regional scale under an integrated assessment framework is desirable. To do so, European-scale models do not provide enough spatial resolution or detail in their ancillary data sources, mainly emission inventories and local meteorology patterns as well as associated results. The objective of this dissertation is to present the developments in the design and application of an Integrated Assessment Model especially conceived for Spain and Portugal. The Atmospheric Evaluation and Research Integrated system for Spain (AERIS) is able to quantify concentration profiles for several pollutants (NO2, SO2, PM10, PM2.5, NH3 and O3), the atmospheric deposition of sulfur and nitrogen species and their related impacts on crops, vegetation, ecosystems and health as a response to percentual changes in the emissions of relevant sectors. The current version of AERIS considers 20 emission sectors, either corresponding to individual SNAP sectors or macrosectors, whose contribution to air quality levels, deposition and impacts have been modeled through the use of source-receptor matrices (SRMs). Thesematrices are proportionality constants that relate emission changes with different air quality indicators and have been derived through statistical parameterizations of an air qualitymodeling system (AQM). For the concrete case of AERIS, its parent AQM relied on the WRF model for meteorology and on the CMAQ model for atmospheric chemical processes. The quantification of atmospheric deposition, impacts on ecosystems, crops, vegetation and human health has been carried out following the standard methodologies established under international negotiation frameworks such as CLRTAP. The programming structure isMATLAB ® -based, allowing great compatibility with typical software such as Microsoft Excel ® or ArcGIS ® Regarding air quality levels, AERIS is able to provide mean annual andmean monthly concentration values, as well as the indicators established in Directive 2008/50/EC, namely the 19th highest hourly value for NO2, the 25th highest daily value and the 4th highest hourly value for SO2, the 36th highest daily value of PM10, the 26th highest maximum 8-hour daily value, SOMO35 and AOT40 for O3. Regarding atmospheric deposition, the annual accumulated deposition per unit of area of species of oxidized and reduced nitrogen as well as sulfur can be estimated. When relating the before mentioned values with specific characteristics of the modeling domain such as land use, forest and crops covers, population counts and epidemiological studies, a wide array of impacts can be calculated. When focusing on impacts on ecosystems and soils, AERIS is able to estimate critical load exceedances and accumulated average exceedances for nitrogen and sulfur species. Damage on forests is estimated as an exceedance of established critical levels of NO2 and SO2. Additionally, AERIS is able to quantify damage caused by O3 and SO2 on grapes, maize, potato, rice, sunflower, tobacco, tomato, watermelon and wheat. Impacts on human health aremodeled as a consequence of exposure to PM2.5 and O3 and quantified as losses in statistical life expectancy and premature mortality indicators. The accuracy of the IAM has been tested by statistically contrasting the obtained results with those yielded by the conventional AQM, exhibiting in most cases a good agreement level. Due to the fact that impacts cannot be directly produced by the AQM, a credibility analysis was carried out for the outputs of AERIS for a given emission scenario by comparing them through probability tests against the performance of GAINS for the same scenario. This analysis revealed a good correspondence in the mean behavior and the probabilistic distributions of the datasets. The verification tests that were applied to AERIS suggest that results are consistent enough to be credited as reasonable and realistic. In conclusion, the main reason thatmotivated the creation of this model was to produce a reliable yet simple screening tool that would provide decision and policy making support for different “what-if” scenarios at a low computing cost. The interaction with politicians and other stakeholders dictated that reconciling the complexity of modeling with the conciseness of policies should be reflected by AERIS in both, its conceptual and computational structures. It should be noted however, that AERIS has been created under a policy-driven framework and by no means should be considered as a substitute of the ordinary AQM.

Relevância:

80.00% 80.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The last decade, scientific studies have indicated an association between air pollution to which people are exposed and wide range of adverse health outcomes. We have developed a tool which is based on a model (MM5-CMAQ) running over Europe with 50 km spatial resolution, based on EMEP annual emissions, to produce a short-term forecast of the impact on health. In order to estimate the mortality change (forecasted for the next 24 hours) we have chosen a log-linear (Poisson) regression form to estimate the concentration-response function. The parameters involved in the C-R function have been estimated based on epidemiological studies, which have been published. Finally, we have derived the relationship between concentration change and mortality change from the C-R function which is the final health impact function.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The use of modular or ‘micro’ maximum power point tracking (MPPT) converters at module level in series association, commercially known as “power optimizers”, allows the individual adaptation of each panel to the load, solving part of the problems related to partial shadows and different tilt and/or orientation angles of the photovoltaic (PV) modules. This is particularly relevant in building integrated PV systems. This paper presents useful behavioural analytical studies of cascade MPPT converters and evaluation test results of a prototype developed under a Spanish national research project. On the one hand, this work focuses on the development of new useful expressions which can be used to identify the behaviour of individual MPPT converters applied to each module and connected in series, in a typical grid-connected PV system. On the other hand, a novel characterization method of MPPT converters is developed, and experimental results of the prototype are obtained: when individual partial shading is applied, and they are connected in a typical grid connected PV array

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

This article describes a first group of theoretical and experimental works undertaken at the Polytechnic University of Madrid. One major purpose is to obtain a structural model for the assessment of historical Latin-American vertically laminated planked timber arches built by the Spanish, mainly in the XVII and XVIII centuries. Many of those constructions still stand and represent a notable historical heritage. Pedro Hurtado recently presented his Ph. D. thesis on historical and construction topics. A structural study was then undertaken. This step of the structural research focussed on static analysis, most especially the deformation in the connection system. This article describes part of this first structural research. Even though it is still at a basic level, it shows reasonable agreement with the experimental results. Further static analytical models are been now developed and implemented. The next stage will address the dynamic problem, even though improvements will be made also in the constitutive equations.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

For the past 20 years, dynamic analysis of shells has been one of the most fascinating fields for research. Using the new light materials the building engineer soon discovered that the subsequent reduction of gravity forces produced not only the desired shape freedom but the appearance of ecologic loads as the first factor of design; loads which present strong random properties and marked dynamic influence. On the other hand, the technological advance in the aeronautical and astronautical field placed the engineers in front of shell structures of nonconventional shape and able to sustain substantialy dynamic loads. The response to the increasingly challenger problems of the last two decades has been very bright; new forms, new materials and new methods of analysis have arosen in the design of off-shore platforms, nuclear vessels, space crafts, etc. Thanks to the intensity of the lived years we have at our disposition a coherent and homogeneous amount of knowledge which enable us to face problems of inconceivable complexity when IASS was founded. The open minded approach to classical problems and the impact of the computer are, probably, important factors in the Renaissance we have enjoyed these years, and a good proof of this are the papers presented to the previous IASS meetings as well as that we are going to consider in this one. Particularly striking is the great number of papers based on a mathematical modeling in front of the meagerness of those treating laboratory experiments on physical models. The universal entering of the computer into almost every phase of our lifes, and the cost of physical models, are –may be- reasons for this lack of experimental methods. Nevertheless they continue offering useful results as are those obtained with the shaking-table in which the computer plays an essential role in the application of loads as well as in the instantaneous treatment of control data. Plates 1 and 2 record the papers presented under dynamic heading, 40% of them are from Japan in good correlation with the relevance that Japanese research has traditionally showed in this area. Also interesting is to find old friends as profesors Tanaka, Nishimura and Kostem who presented valuable papers in previous IASS conferences. As we see there are papers representative of all tendencies, even purely analytical! Better than discuss them in detail, which can be done after the authors presentation, I think we can comment in the general pattern of the dynamical approach are summarized in plate 3.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

In 1933 public letter to Wilhelm Furtwängler, Joseph Goebbels synthesized the official understanding of the link between politics, art and society in the early steps of the Third Reich. By assuming the ethos of art, politics acquired a plastic agency to mold its objects —population and the state— as a unified entity in the form of a ‘national-popular community’ (Volksgemeinschaft); in turn, by infusing art with a political valence, it became part of a wider governmental apparatus that reshaped aesthetic discourses and practices. Similar remarks could be made about the ordering of cities and territories in this period. Dictatorial imaginations mobilized urbanism —including urban theory, urban design and planning— as a fundamental tool for social organization. Under their aegis the production of space became a moment in a wider production of society. Many authors suggest that this political-spatial nexus is intrinsic to modernity itself, beyond dictatorial regimes. In this light, I propose to use dictatorial urbanisms as an analytical opportunity to delve into some concealed features of modern urban design and planning. This chapter explores some of these aspects from a theoretical standpoint, focusing on the development of dictatorial planning mentalities and spatial rationalities and drawing links to other historical episodes in order to inscribe the former in a broader genealogy of urbanism. Needless to say, I don’t suggest that we use dictatorships as mere templates to understand modern productions of space. Instead, these cases provide a crude version of some fundamental drives in the operationalization of urbanism as an instrument of social regulation, showing how far the modern imagination of sociospatial orderings can go. Dictatorial urbanisms constituted a set of experiences where many dreams and aspirations of modern planning went to die. But not, as the conventional account would have it, because the former were the antithesis of the latter, but rather because they worked as the excess of a particular orientation of modern spatial governmentalities — namely, their focus on calculation, social engineering and disciplinary spatialities, and their attempt to subsume a wide range of everyday practices under institutional structuration by means of spatial mediations. In my opinion the interest of dictatorial urbanisms lies in their role as key regulatory episodes in a longer history of our urban present. They stand as a threshold between the advent of planning in the late 19th and early 20th century, and its final consolidation as a crucial state instrument after World War II. We need, therefore, to pay attention to these experiences vis-à-vis the alleged ‘normal’ development of the field in contemporary democratic countries in order to develop a full comprehension thereof.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

We have developed new analytical expressions for designing liquid crystal (LC) microlenses. These equations are based on a novel equivalent electric circuit and can be used to create an optimum design for the LC lenses in which the lens diameter ranges from a few micrometers to several millimeters. Thus far, only experimental studies have been conducted on the LC lenses. The analytical expressions developed in this letter depend on various manufacturing parameters and can be used to design lenses with specific focal lengths and a parabolic phase profile. The required driving scheme (modal or hole-patterned) can be predicted. The LC microlenses were manufactured and electrooptically characterized: the measurements were compared using an analytical approach.