A multinational SDI-based system to facilitate disaster risk management in the Andean Community

A useful strategy for improving disaster risk management is sharing spatial data across different technical organizations using shared information systems. However, the implementation of this type of system requires a large effort, so it is difficult to find fully implemented and sustainable information systems that facilitate sharing multinational spatial data about disasters, especially in developing countries. In this paper, we describe a pioneer system for sharing spatial information that we developed for the Andean Community. This system, called SIAPAD (Andean Information System for Disaster Prevention and Relief), integrates spatial information from 37 technical organizations in the Andean countries (Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru). SIAPAD was based on the concept of a thematic Spatial Data Infrastructure (SDI) and includes a web application, called GEORiesgo, which helps users to find relevant information with a knowledge-based system. In the paper, we describe the design and implementation of SIAPAD together with general conclusions and future directions which we learned as a result of this work.

A Methodological model to assist the optimization and risk management of mining investment decisions

Identifying, quantifying, and minimizing technical risks associated with investment decisions is a key challenge for mineral industry decision makers and investors. However, risk analysis in most bankable mine feasibility studies are based on the stochastic modelling of project “Net Present Value” (NPV)which, in most cases, fails to provide decision makers with a truly comprehensive analysis of risks associated with technical and management uncertainty and, as a result, are of little use for risk management and project optimization. This paper presents a value-chain risk management approach where project risk is evaluated for each step of the project lifecycle, from exploration to mine closure, and risk management is performed as a part of a stepwise value-added optimization process.

Diagnosing Causes of Water Scarcity in Complex Water Resources Systems and Identifying Risk Management Actions

From the water management perspective, water scarcity is an unacceptable risk of facing water shortages to serve water demands in the near future. Water scarcity may be temporary and related to drought conditions or other accidental situation, or may be permanent and due to deeper causes such as excessive demand growth, lack of infrastructure for water storage or transport, or constraints in water management. Diagnosing the causes of water scarcity in complex water resources systems is a precondition to adopt effective drought risk management actions. In this paper we present four indices which have been developed to evaluate water scarcity. We propose a methodology for interpretation of index values that can lead to conclusions about the reliability and vulnerability of systems to water scarcity, as well as to diagnose their possible causes and to propose solutions. The described methodology was applied to the Ebro river basin, identifying existing and expected problems and possible solutions. System diagnostics, based exclusively on the analysis of index values, were compared with the known reality as perceived by system managers, validating the conclusions in all cases

Assessment of irrigators’ preferences for different water supply risk management tools: option contract and insurance.

Irrigators face the risk of not having enough water to meet their crops’ demand. There are different mechanisms to cope with this risk, including water markets (option contracts) or insurance. A farmer will purchase them when the expected utility change derived from the tool is positive. This paper presents a theoretical assessment of the farmer’s expected utility under two different option contracts, a drought insurance and a combination of an option contract and the insurance. We analyze the conditions that determine farmer’s reference for one instrument or the other and perform a numerical application that is relevant for a Spanish region.

A Fuzzy approach based on dynamic programming and metaheuristics for selecting safeguards for risk management for information systems

In this paper we focus on the selection of safeguards in a fuzzy risk analysis and management methodology for information systems (IS). Assets are connected by dependency relationships, and a failure of one asset may affect other assets. After computing impact and risk indicators associated with previously identified threats, we identify and apply safeguards to reduce risks in the IS by minimizing the transmission probabilities of failures throughout the asset network. However, as safeguards have associated costs, the aim is to select the safeguards that minimize costs while keeping the risk within acceptable levels. To do this, we propose a dynamic programming-based method that incorporates simulated annealing to tackle optimizations problems.

Cognitive risk perception system for obstacle avoidance in outdoor mUAV missions

La robótica ha evolucionado exponencialmente en las últimas décadas, permitiendo a los sistemas actuales realizar tareas sumamente complejas con gran precisión, fiabilidad y velocidad. Sin embargo, este desarrollo ha estado asociado a un mayor grado de especialización y particularización de las tecnologías implicadas, siendo estas muy eficientes en situaciones concretas y controladas, pero incapaces en entornos cambiantes, dinámicos y desestructurados. Por eso, el desarrollo de la robótica debe pasar por dotar a los sistemas de capacidad de adaptación a las circunstancias, de entendedimiento sobre los cambios observados y de flexibilidad a la hora de interactuar con el entorno. Estas son las caracteristicas propias de la interacción del ser humano con su entorno, las que le permiten sobrevivir y las que pueden proporcionar a un sistema inteligencia y capacidad suficientes para desenvolverse en un entorno real de forma autónoma e independiente. Esta adaptabilidad es especialmente importante en el manejo de riesgos e incetidumbres, puesto que es el mecanismo que permite contextualizar y evaluar las amenazas para proporcionar una respuesta adecuada. Así, por ejemplo, cuando una persona se mueve e interactua con su entorno, no evalúa los obstáculos en función de su posición, velocidad o dinámica (como hacen los sistemas robóticos tradicionales), sino mediante la estimación del riesgo potencial que estos elementos suponen para la persona. Esta evaluación se consigue combinando dos procesos psicofísicos del ser humano: por un lado, la percepción humana analiza los elementos relevantes del entorno, tratando de entender su naturaleza a partir de patrones de comportamiento, propiedades asociadas u otros rasgos distintivos. Por otro lado, como segundo nivel de evaluación, el entendimiento de esta naturaleza permite al ser humano conocer/estimar la relación de los elementos con él mismo, así como sus implicaciones en cuanto a nivel de riesgo se refiere. El establecimiento de estas relaciones semánticas -llamado cognición- es la única forma de definir el nivel de riesgo de manera absoluta y de generar una respuesta adecuada al mismo. No necesariamente proporcional, sino coherente con el riesgo al que se enfrenta. La investigación que presenta esta tesis describe el trabajo realizado para trasladar esta metodología de análisis y funcionamiento a la robótica. Este se ha centrado especialmente en la nevegación de los robots aéreos, diseñando e implementado procedimientos de inspiración humana para garantizar la seguridad de la misma. Para ello se han estudiado y evaluado los mecanismos de percepción, cognición y reacción humanas en relación al manejo de riesgos. También se ha analizado como los estímulos son capturados, procesados y transformados por condicionantes psicológicos, sociológicos y antropológicos de los seres humanos. Finalmente, también se ha analizado como estos factores motivan y descandenan las reacciones humanas frente a los peligros. Como resultado de este estudio, todos estos procesos, comportamientos y condicionantes de la conducta humana se han reproducido en un framework que se ha estructurado basadandose en factores análogos. Este emplea el conocimiento obtenido experimentalmente en forma de algoritmos, técnicas y estrategias, emulando el comportamiento humano en las mismas circunstancias. Diseñado, implementeado y validado tanto en simulación como con datos reales, este framework propone una manera innovadora -tanto en metodología como en procedimiento- de entender y reaccionar frente a las amenazas potenciales de una misión robótica. ABSTRACT Robotics has undergone a great revolution in the last decades. Nowadays this technology is able to perform really complex tasks with a high degree of accuracy and speed, however this is only true in precisely defined situations with fully controlled variables. Since the real world is dynamic, changing and unstructured, flexible and non context-dependent systems are required. The ability to understand situations, acknowledge changes and balance reactions is required by robots to successfully interact with their surroundings in a fully autonomous fashion. In fact, it is those very processes that define human interactions with the environment. Social relationships, driving or risk/incertitude management... in all these activities and systems, context understanding and adaptability are what allow human beings to survive: contrarily to the traditional robotics, people do not evaluate obstacles according to their position but according to the potential risk their presence imply. In this sense, human perception looks for information which goes beyond location, speed and dynamics (the usual data used in traditional obstacle avoidance systems). Specific features in the behaviour of a particular element allows the understanding of that element’s nature and therefore the comprehension of the risk posed by it. This process defines the second main difference between traditional obstacle avoidance systems and human behaviour: the ability to understand a situation/scenario allows to get to know the implications of the elements and their relationship with the observer. Establishing these semantic relationships -named cognition- is the only way to estimate the actual danger level of an element. Furthermore, only the application of this knowledge allows the generation of coherent, suitable and adjusted responses to deal with any risk faced. The research presented in this thesis summarizes the work done towards translating these human cognitive/reasoning procedures to the field of robotics. More specifically, the work done has been focused on employing human-based methodologies to enable aerial robots to navigate safely. To this effect, human perception, cognition and reaction processes concerning risk management have been experimentally studied; as well as the acquisition and processing of stimuli. How psychological, sociological and anthropological factors modify, balance and give shape to those stimuli has been researched. And finally, the way in which these factors motivate the human behaviour according to different mindsets and priorities has been established. This associative workflow has been reproduced by establishing an equivalent structure and defining similar factors and sources. Besides, all the knowledge obtained experimentally has been applied in the form of algorithms, techniques and strategies which emulate the analogous human behaviours. As a result, a framework capable of understanding and reacting in response to stimuli has been implemented and validated.

Impact attribution models to evaluate drought effects: economic impacts, risk analyses and management strategies in Spain and Chile

La sequía es un fenómeno natural que se origina por el descenso de las precipitaciones con respecto a una media, y que resulta en la disponibilidad insuficiente de agua para alguna actividad. La creciente presión que se ha venido ejerciendo sobre los recursos hídricos ha hecho que los impactos de la sequía se hayan visto agravados a la vez que ha desencadenado situaciones de escasez de agua en muchas partes del planeta. Los países con clima mediterráneo son especialmente vulnerables a las sequías, y, su crecimiento económico dependiente del agua da lugar a impactos importantes. Para reducir los impactos de la sequía es necesaria una reducción de la vulnerabilidad a las sequías que viene dada por una gestión más eficiente y por una mejor preparación. Para ello es muy importante disponer de información acerca de los impactos y el alcance de este fenómeno natural. Esta investigación trata de abarcar el tema de los impactos de las sequías, de manera que plantea todos los tipos de impactos que pueden darse y además compara sus efectos en dos países (España y Chile). Para ello se proponen modelos de atribución de impactos que sean capaces de medir las pérdidas económicas causadas por la falta de agua. Los modelos propuestos tienen una base econométrica en la que se incluyen variables clave a la hora de evaluar los impactos como es una variable relacionada con la disponibilidad de agua, y otras de otra naturaleza para distinguir los efectos causados por otras fuentes de variación. Estos modelos se adaptan según la fase del estudio en la que nos encontremos. En primer lugar se miden los impactos directos sobre el regadío y se introduce en el modelo un factor de aleatoriedad para evaluar el riesgo económico de sequía. Esto se hace a dos niveles geográficos (provincial y de Unidad de Demanda Agraria) y además en el último se introduce no solo el riesgo de oferta sino también el riesgo de demanda de agua. La introducción de la perspectiva de riesgo en el modelo da lugar a una herramienta de gestión del riesgo económico que puede ser utilizada para estrategias de planificación. Más adelante una extensión del modelo econométrico se desarrolla para medir los impactos en el sector agrario (impactos directos sobre el regadío y el secano e impactos indirectos sobre la Agro Industria) para ello se adapta el modelo y se calculan elasticidades concatenadas entre la falta de agua y los impactos secundarios. Por último se plantea un modelo econométrico para el caso de estudio en Chile y se evalúa el impacto de las sequías debidas al fenómeno de La Niña. iv Los resultados en general muestran el valor que brinda el conocimiento más preciso acerca de los impactos, ya que en muchas ocasiones se tiende a sobreestimar los daños realmente producidos por la falta de agua. Los impactos indirectos de la sequía confirman su alcance a la vez que son amortiguados a medida que nos acercamos al ámbito macroeconómico. En el caso de Chile, su diferente gestión muestra el papel que juegan el fenómeno de El Niño y La Niña sobre los precios de los principales cultivos del país y sobre el crecimiento del sector. Para reducir las pérdidas y su alcance se deben plantear más medidas de mitigación que centren su esfuerzo en una gestión eficiente del recurso. Además la prevención debe jugar un papel muy importante para reducir los riesgos que pueden sufrirse ante situaciones de escasez. ABSTRACT Drought is a natural phenomenon that originates by the decrease in rainfall in comparison to the average, and that results in water shortages for some activities. The increasing pressure on water resources has augmented the impact of droughts just as water scarcity has become an additional problem in many parts of the planet. Countries with Mediterranean climate are especially vulnerable to drought, and its waterdependent economic growth leads to significant impacts. To reduce the negative impacts it is necessary to deal with drought vulnerability, and to achieve this objective a more efficient management is needed. The availability of information about the impacts and the scope of droughts become highly important. This research attempts to encompass the issue of drought impacts, and therefore it characterizes all impact types that may occur and also compares its effects in two different countries (Spain and Chile). Impact attribution models are proposed in order to measure the economic losses caused by the lack of water. The proposed models are based on econometric approaches and they include key variables for measuring the impacts. Variables related to water availability, crop prices or time trends are included to be able to distinguish the effects caused by any of the possible sources. These models are adapted for each of the parts of the study. First, the direct impacts on irrigation are measured and a source of variability is introduced into the model to assess the economic risk of drought. This is performed at two geographic levels provincial and Agricultural Demand Unit. In the latter, not only the supply risk is considered but also the water demand risk side. The introduction of the risk perspective into the model results in a risk management tool that can be used for planning strategies. Then an extension of the econometric model is developed to measure the impacts on the agricultural sector (direct impacts on irrigated and rainfed productions and indirect impacts on the Agri-food Industry). For this aim the model is adapted and concatenated elasticities between the lack of water and the impacts are estimated. Finally an econometric model is proposed for the Chilean case study to evaluate the impact of droughts, especially caused by El Niño Southern Oscillation. The overall results show the value of knowing better about the precise impacts that often tend to be overestimated. The models allow for measuring accurate impacts due to the lack of water. Indirect impacts of drought confirm their scope while they confirm also its dilution as we approach the macroeconomic variables. In the case of Chile, different management strategies of the country show the role of ENSO phenomena on main crop prices and on economic trends. More mitigation measures focused on efficient resource management are necessary to reduce drought losses. Besides prevention must play an important role to reduce the risks that may be suffered due to shortages.

Innovative tools to address drought risk in grazing lands

Drought spells can impose severe impacts in most vulnerable farms. It is well known that uninsured exposure exacerbates income inequality in farming systems. However, high administrative costs of traditional insurance hinder small farmers? access to risk management tools. The existence of moral hazard and systemic risk prevents the implementation of traditional insurance programs to address drought risk in rural areas. Innovative technologies like satellite images are being used to derive vegetation index which are highly correlated with drought impacts. The implementation of this technology in agricultural insurance may help to overcome some of the limitations of traditional insurance. However, basis risk has been identified as one of the main problems that hinder the acceptance of index insurance. In this paper we focus on the analyses of basis risk under different contract options in the grazing lands of the Araucanía region. A vegetation index database is used to develop an actuarial insurance model and estimate risk premiums for moderate and severe drought coverage. Risk premium sharply increases with risk coverage. In contrast with previous findings in the literature, our results are not conclusive and show that lowering the coverage level does not necessarily imply a reduction in basis risk. Further analyses of the relation between contract design and basis risk is a promising area of research that may render an important social utility for most vulnerable farming systems.

Perception of employers and employees regarding the attitude of businesses toward the environment: a qualitative analysis

Commitment and involvement from the different members of an organization are two key elements for an organization to achieve its environmental excellence. Firstly, businesses are aware of the close relationship between their activities and the environment, for they are not only polluting agents but also agents with the capacity to reduce adverse environmental impacts. Secondly, the fact that employees can play a relevant role in terms of the socially responsible measures to be taken by organizations has started to become an irrefutably important issue. This piece of research is intended to help gain knowledge concerning the attitude of the two main actors in productive activity toward the environmental, that is, employers and employees; as well, this research intends to identify factors determining behaviour towards the environmental. For this, we have gathered the ideas and assessments contained in the discourse of a group of small and medium-sized businesses, large company owners and officers, employees, and work related risk prevention representatives. Qualitative work consisted of in-depth interviews and the creation of discussion groups.

Power management techniques in an FPGA-Based WSN node for high performance application

In this work, the power management techniques implemented in a high-performance node for Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN) based on a RAM-based FPGA are presented. This new node custom architecture is intended for high-end WSN applications that include complex sensor management like video cameras, high compute demanding tasks such as image encoding or robust encryption, and/or higher data bandwidth needs. In the case of these complex processing tasks, yet maintaining low power design requirements, it can be shown that the combination of different techniques such as extensive HW algorithm mapping, smart management of power islands to selectively switch on and off components, smart and low-energy partial reconfiguration, an adequate set of save energy modes and wake up options, all combined, may yield energy results that may compete and improve energy usage of typical low power microcontrollers used in many WSN node architectures. Actually, results show that higher complexity tasks are in favor of HW based platforms, while the flexibility achieved by dynamic and partial reconfiguration techniques could be comparable to SW based solutions.

Environmental risk assessment in open pit blasting operations: compliance with ISO 31010:2010

All activities of an organization involve risks that should be managed. The risk management process aids decision making by taking account of uncertainty and the possibility of future events or circumstances (intended or unintended) and their effects on agreed objectives. With that idea, new ISO Standard has been drawn up. ISO 31010 has been recently issued which provides a structured process that identifies how objectives may be affected, and analyses the risk in term of consequences and their probabilities before deciding on whether further treatment is required. In this lecture, that ISO Standard has been adapted to Open Pit Blasting Operations, focusing in Environmental effects which can be managed properly. Technique used is Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), which is applied in all possible scenarios, providing to Blasting Professionals the tools to identify, analyze and manage environmental effects in blasting operations. Also this lecture can help to minimize each effect, studying each case. This paper also can be useful to Project Managers and Occupational Health and Safety Departments (OH&S) because blasting operations can be evaluated and compared one to each other to determine the risks that should be managed in different case studies. The environmental effects studied are: ground vibrations, flyrock and air overpressure (airblast). Sometimes, blasting operations are carried out near populated areas where environmental effects may impose several limitations on the use of explosives. In those cases, where these factors approach certain limits, National Standards and Regulations have to be applied.

Estudio de los riesgos técnicos aplicados al diseño y construcción de cimentaciones para máquinas

En el Código Técnico de la Edificación se define el riesgo como medida del alcance del peligro que representa un evento no deseado para las personas, expresado en términos de probabilidad vinculada a las consecuencias de un evento, también se expresa como Exigencia Básica de Resistencia y Estabilidad, que estas serán las adecuadas para que no se generen riesgos indebidos manteniendo la resistencia y estabilidad frente a las acciones e influencias previsibles durante la construcción y usos previstos de los edificios, y que además, los posibles eventos extraordinarios que puedan producirse no originen consecuencias desproporcionadas respecto a la causa original. Es ahora donde la gestión de riesgos juega un papel muy importante en la sociedad moderna, siendo esta cada vez más exigente con los resultados y calidad de productos y servicios, además de cumplir también con la responsabilidad jurídica que trae la concepción, diseño y construcción de proyectos de gran envergadura como los son la obra civil y edificación. La obra civil destinada al sector industrial debe ser ejecutada con la mayor precisión posible, pues requiere la instalación de complejos equipos y sistemas productivos que pueden producir esfuerzos dinámicos que muchas veces no se consideran en el diseño de los cimientos que lo soportan, razón por la cual interviene la gestión de riesgos para conocer y reducir los posibles riesgos de fallos que se puedan generar y así intentar aproximarse cada vez más al desarrollo de diseños eficientes y confiables, afianzando la exactitud y minimizando errores en la producción y elaboración de piezas, sistemas y equipos de las distintas áreas productivas de la industria. El presente trabajo de investigación se centra en el estudio de los riesgos técnicos existentes en el diseño y ejecución de cimentaciones para maquinarias, mediante la aplicación de varios métodos de investigación, a fin de intentar cubrir los aspectos más importantes que puedan incurrir en una posible causa de fallo de la estructura, evaluando el acoplamiento entre el sistema máquina-cimiento-suelo. Risk is defined, by the Technical Building Code (Código Técnico de la Edificación, CTE) as a measure of the scope of the hazard of an undesired event for people, expressed in terms of probability related to the consequences of an event, also is expressed as a Basic Requirement Strength and Stability these will be appropriate to not cause undue risk maintaining strength and stability against predictable actions and influences during construction and expected uses of the buildings. Nowadays, Risk Management is an important process in modern society, becoming ever more demanding about the results and quality of products and services, and also complies with the legal responsibility that brings the conception, design and construction of large projects as are civil engineering and construction projects. Civil work as a part of industry must be performed as accurately as possible, requiring the installation of sophisticated equipment and production systems which can produce dynamic forces that often are not considered in the design of the foundations, this is the reason why risk management is involved to understand and reduce the risks of failures that may arise and try to move closer to the development of efficient and reliable designs, strengthening the accuracy and minimizing errors in the production and processing of parts, systems and equipments from different production areas of the industry. This paper is a study of existing technical risks in the design and execution of foundations for machinery, through the application of various research methods, in order to try to cover the most important aspects that may produce the failure of the structure, evaluating the union between the machine-foundation system and soil.

Safety and health in forest harvesting operations. Diagnosis and preventive actions. A review

Aim of study: to review the present state of the art in relation to the main labour risks and the most relevant results of recent studies evaluating the safety and health conditions of the forest harvesting work and better ways to reduce accidents. Area of study: It focuses mainly on developed Countries, where the general concern about work risks prevention, together with the complex idiosyncrasy of forest work in forest harvesting operations, has led to a growing interest from the forest scientific and technical community. Material and Methods: The main bibliographic and Internet references have been identified using common reference analysis tools. Their conclusions and recommendations have been comprehensively summarized. Main results: Collection of the principal references and their most important conclusions relating to the main accident risk factors, their causes and consequences, the means used towards their prevention, both instrumental as well as in the aspects of training and business management, besides the influence of the growing mechanization of logging operations on those risks. Research highlights: Accident risk is higher in forest harvesting than in most other work sectors, and the main risk factors such as experience, age, seasonality, training, protective equipment, mechanization degree, etc. have been identified and studied. The paper summarizes some relevant results, one of the principal being that the proper entrepreneurial risk management is a key factor leading to the success in minimizing labour risks..

A Semantic-Based Approach to Attain Reproducibility of Computational Environments in Scientic Work ows: A Case Study

Reproducible research in scientic work ows is often addressed by tracking the provenance of the produced results. While this approach allows inspecting intermediate and nal results, improves understanding, and permits replaying a work ow execution, it does not ensure that the computational environment is available for subsequent executions to reproduce the experiment. In this work, we propose describing the resources involved in the execution of an experiment using a set of semantic vocabularies, so as to conserve the computational environment. We dene a process for documenting the work ow application, management system, and their dependencies based on 4 domain ontologies. We then conduct an experimental evaluation sing a real work ow application on an academic and a public Cloud platform. Results show that our approach can reproduce an equivalent execution environment of a predened virtual machine image on both computing platforms.

Modeling of dangerous phenomena and innovative techniques for hazard evaluation and risk mitigation

Society is frequently exposed to and threatened by dangerous phenomena in many parts of the world. Different types of such phenomena require specific actions for proper risk management, from the stages of hazard identification to those of mitigation (including monitoring and early-warning) and/or reduction. The understanding of both predisposing factors and triggering mechanisms of a given danger and the prediction of its evolution from the source to the overall affected zone are relevant issues that must be addressed to properly evaluate a given hazard.