Diagnosing Causes of Water Scarcity in Complex Water Resources Systems and Identifying Risk Management Actions

From the water management perspective, water scarcity is an unacceptable risk of facing water shortages to serve water demands in the near future. Water scarcity may be temporary and related to drought conditions or other accidental situation, or may be permanent and due to deeper causes such as excessive demand growth, lack of infrastructure for water storage or transport, or constraints in water management. Diagnosing the causes of water scarcity in complex water resources systems is a precondition to adopt effective drought risk management actions. In this paper we present four indices which have been developed to evaluate water scarcity. We propose a methodology for interpretation of index values that can lead to conclusions about the reliability and vulnerability of systems to water scarcity, as well as to diagnose their possible causes and to propose solutions. The described methodology was applied to the Ebro river basin, identifying existing and expected problems and possible solutions. System diagnostics, based exclusively on the analysis of index values, were compared with the known reality as perceived by system managers, validating the conclusions in all cases

Land cover dynamics and climate change implications on water resources in South Pacific Costa Rica

Water is fundamental to human life and the availability of freshwater is often a constraint on human welfare and economic development. Consequently, the potential effects of global changes on hydrology and water resources are considered among the most severe and vital ones. Water scarcity is one of the main problems in the rural communities of Central America, as a result of an important degradation of catchment areas and the over-exploitation of aquifers. The present Thesis is focused on two critical aspects of global changes over water resources: (1) the potential effects of climate change on water quantity and (2) the impacts of land cover and land use changes on the hydrological processes and water cycle. Costa Rica is among the few developing countries that have recently achieved a land use transition with a net increase in forest cover. Osa Region in South Pacific Costa Rica is an appealing study site to assess water supply management plans and to measure the effects of deforestation, forest transitions and climate change projections reported in the region. Rural Community Water Supply systems (ASADAS) in Osa are dealing with an increasing demand of freshwater due to the growing population and the change in the way of life in the rural livelihoods. Land cover mosaics which have resulted from the above mentioned processes are characterized by the abandonment of marginal farmland with the spread over these former grasslands of high return crops and the expansion of secondary forests due to reforestation initiatives. These land use changes have a significant impact on runoff generation in priority water-supply catchments in the humid tropics, as evidenced by the analysis of the Tinoco Experimental Catchment in the Southern Pacific area of Costa Rica. The monitoring system assesses the effects of the different land uses on the runoff responses and on the general water cycle of the basin. Runoff responses at plot scale are analyzed for secondary forests, oil palm plantations, forest plantations and grasslands. The Oil palm plantation plot presented the highest runoff coefficient (mean RC=32.6%), twice that measured under grasslands (mean RC=15.3%) and 20-fold greater than in secondary forest (mean RC=1.7%). A Thornthwaite-type water balance is proposed to assess the impact of land cover and climate change scenarios over water availability for rural communities in Osa Region. Climate change projections were obtained by the downscaling of BCM2, CNCM3 and ECHAM5 models. Precipitation and temperature were averaged and conveyed by the A1B, A2 and B1 IPCC climate scenario for 2030, 2060 and 2080. Precipitation simulations exhibit a positive increase during the dry season for the three scenarios and a decrease during the rainy season, with the highest magnitude (up to 25%) by the end of the 21st century under scenario B1. Monthly mean temperature simulations increase for the three scenarios throughout the year with a maximum increase during the dry season of 5% under A1B and A2 scenarios and 4% under B1 scenario. The Thornthwaite-type Water Balance model indicates important decreases of water surplus for the three climate scenarios during the rainy season, with a maximum decrease on May, which under A1B scenario drop up to 20%, under A2 up to 40% and under B1 scenario drop up to almost 60%. Land cover scenarios were created taking into account current land cover dynamics of the region. Land cover scenario 1 projects a deforestation situation, with forests decreasing up to 15% due to urbanization of the upper catchment areas; land cover scenario 2 projects a forest recovery situation where forested areas increase due to grassland abandonment on areas with more than 30% of slope. Deforestation scenario projects an annual water surplus decrease of 15% while the reforestation scenario projects a water surplus increase of almost 25%. This water balance analysis indicates that climate scenarios are equal contributors as land cover scenarios to future water resource estimations.

Irrigated agriculture: Water resources management for a sustainable environment

In the last decade, research on irrigation has mainly been aimed at reducing crop water consumption. In arid and semi-arid environments, in relation to the limited water resources, the use of low quality water in agriculture has also been investigated in order to detect their effects on soil physical properties and on crop production. More recently, even the reduction of energy consumption in agriculture, as well as the effects of external factors, climate change and agricultural policies, have been major research interests. All these objectives have been considered in the papers included in this special issue. However, in the last years, approaches aimed at reducing crop water requirements have significantly changed. Remote sensing with satellites or unmanned vehicles, and vegetation spectral measurements, among others, represent in fact the newest frontier of existing technologies. Knowledge of soil hydraulic properties, often forgotten because of the difficulty of their estimation, can also be considered as a new way to reduce water consumption.

Integrated economic-hydrologic analysis of policy responses

Water is a vital resource, but also a critical limiting factor for economic and social development in many parts of the world. The recent rapid growth in human population and water use for social and economic development is increasing the pressure on water resources and the environment, as well as leading to growing conflicts among competing water use sectors (agriculture, urban, tourism, industry) and regions (Gleick et al., 2009; World Bank, 2006). In Spain, as in many other arid and semi-arid regions affected by drought and wide climate variability, irrigated agriculture is responsible for most consumptive water use and plays an important role in sustaining rural livelihoods (Varela-Ortega, 2007). Historically, the evolution of irrigation has been based on publicly-funded irrigation development plans that promoted economic growth and improved the socio-economic conditions of rural farmers in agrarian Spain, but increased environmental damage and led to excessive and inefficient exploitation of water resources (Garrido and Llamas, 2010; Varela-Ortega et al., 2010). Currently, water policies in Spain focus on rehabilitating and improving the efficiency of irrigation systems, and are moving from technocratic towards integrated water management strategies driven by the European Union (EU) Water Framework Directive (WFD).

An example of integration between en economic and an hydrologic model in the framework of water resource management problems

Growing scarcity, increasing demand and bad management of water resources are causing weighty competition for water and consequently managers are facing more and more pressure in an attempt to satisfy users? requirement. In many regions agriculture is one of the most important users at river basin scale since it concentrates high volumes of water consumption during relatively short periods (irrigation season), with a significant economic, social and environmental impact. The interdisciplinary characteristics of related water resources problems require, as established in the Water Framework Directive 2000/60/EC, an integrated and participative approach to water management and assigns an essential role to economic analysis as a decision support tool. For this reason, a methodology is developed to analyse the economic and environmental implications of water resource management under different scenarios, with a focus on the agricultural sector. This research integrates both economic and hydrologic components in modelling, defining scenarios of water resource management with the goal of preventing critical situations, such as droughts. The model follows the Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) approach, an innovative methodology successfully used for agricultural policy analysis in the last decade and also applied in several analyses regarding water use in agriculture. This approach has, among others, the very important capability of perfectly calibrating the baseline scenario using a very limited database. However one important disadvantage is its limited capacity to simulate activities non-observed during the reference period but which could be adopted if the scenario changed. To overcome this problem the classical methodology is extended in order to simulate a more realistic farmers? response to new agricultural policies or modified water availability. In this way an economic model has been developed to reproduce the farmers? behaviour within two irrigation districts in the Tiber High Valley. This economic model is then integrated with SIMBAT, an hydrologic model developed for the Tiber basin which allows to simulate the balance between the water volumes available at the Montedoglio dam and the water volumes required by the various irrigation users.

Latin American Agricultural Trade: The Role of the WTO in Sustainable Virtual Water Flows, European Association of Agricultural Economists

International agricultural trade has been growing significantly during the last decade. Many countries rely on imports to ensure adequate food supplies to the people. A few are becoming food baskets of the world. This process raises issues about the food security in depending countries and potentially unsustainable land and water use in exporting countries. In this paper, we analyse the impacts of amplified farm trade on natural resources, especially water. Farm exports and imports of five Latin America countries (Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, Peru and Chile) are examined carefully. A preliminary analysis indicates that virtual water imports can save valuable water resources in water-short countries, such as Mexico and Chile. Major exporting countries, including Brazil and Argentina, have become big exporters due to abundant natural resource endowments. The opportunity costs of agricultural production in those countries are identified as being low, because of the predominant green water use. It is concluded that virtual water trade can be a powerful tool to alleviate water stress in semi-arid countries. However, for exporting nations a sustainable water use can only be guaranteed if environmental production costs are fully reflected in the commodity prices. There is no basis for erecting environmental trade tariffs on exporters though. Setting up legal foundations for them in full compliance with WTOs processes would be a daunting task.

Water scarcity and climate change impact and vulnerability in irrigated agriculture in Mediterranean river basins

Actualmente, la escasez de agua constituye un importante problema en muchos lugares del mundo. El crecimiento de la población, la creciente necesidad de alimentos, el desarrollo socio-económico y el cambio climático ejercen una importante y cada vez mayor presión sobre los recursos hídricos, a la que muchos países van a tener que enfrentarse en los próximos anos. La región Mediterránea es una de las regiones del mundo de mayor escasez de recursos hídricos, y es además una de las zonas más vulnerables al cambio climático. La mayoría de estudios sobre cambio climático prevén mayores temperaturas y una disminución de las precipitaciones, y una creciente escasez de agua debida a la disminución de recursos disponibles y al aumento de las demandas de riego. En el contexto actual de desarrollo de políticas se demanda cada vez más una mayor consideración del cambio climático en el marco de las políticas sectoriales. Sin embargo, los estudios enfocados a un solo sector no reflejan las múltiples dimensiones del los efectos del cambio climático. Numerosos estudios científicos han demostrado que el cambio climático es un fenómeno de naturaleza multi-dimensional y cuyos efectos se transmiten a múltiples escalas. Por tanto, es necesaria la producción de estudios y herramientas de análisis capaces de reflejar todas estas dimensiones y que contribuyan a la elaboración de políticas robustas en un contexto de cambio climático. Esta investigación pretende aportar una visión global de la problemática de la escasez de agua y los impactos, la vulnerabilidad y la adaptación al cambio climático en el contexto de la región mediterránea. La investigación presenta un marco integrado de modelización que se va ampliando progresivamente en un proceso secuencial y multi-escalar en el que en cada etapa se incorpora una nueva dimensión. La investigación consta de cuatro etapas que se abordan a lo largo de cuatro capítulos. En primer lugar, se estudia la vulnerabilidad económica de las explotaciones de regadío del Medio Guadiana, en España. Para ello, se utiliza un modelo de programación matemática en combinación con un modelo econométrico. A continuación, en la segunda etapa, se utiliza un modelo hidro-económico que incluye un modelo de cultivo para analizar los procesos que tienen lugar a escala de cultivo, explotación y cuenca teniendo en cuenta distintas escalas geográficas y de toma de decisiones. Esta herramienta permite el análisis de escenarios de cambio climático y la evaluación de posibles medidas de adaptación. La tercera fase consiste en el análisis de las barreras que dificultan la aplicación de procesos de adaptación para lo cual se analizan las redes socio-institucionales en la cuenca. Finalmente, la cuarta etapa aporta una visión sobre la escasez de agua y el cambio climático a escala nacional y regional mediante el estudio de distintos escenarios de futuro plausibles y los posibles efectos de las políticas en la escasez de agua. Para este análisis se utiliza un modelo econométrico de datos de panel para la región mediterránea y un modelo hidro-económico que se aplica a los casos de estudio de España y Jordania. Los resultados del estudio ponen de relieve la importancia de considerar múltiples escalas y múltiples dimensiones en el estudio de la gestión de los recursos hídricos y la adaptación al cambio climático en los contextos mediterráneos de escasez de agua estudiados. Los resultados muestran que los impactos del cambio climático en la cuenca del Guadiana y en el conjunto de España pueden comprometer la sostenibilidad del regadío y de los ecosistemas. El análisis a escala de cuenca hidrográfica resalta la importancia de las interacciones entre los distintos usuarios del agua y en concreto entre distintas comunidades de regantes, así como la necesidad de fortalecer el papel de las instituciones y de fomentar la creación de una visión común en la cuenca para facilitar la aplicación de los procesos de adaptación. Asimismo, los resultados de este trabajo evidencian también la capacidad y el papel fundamental de las políticas para lograr un desarrollo sostenible y la adaptación al cambio climático es regiones de escasez de agua tales como la región mediterránea. Especialmente, este trabajo pone de manifiesto el potencial de la Directiva Marco del Agua de la Unión Europea para lograr una efectiva adaptación al cambio climático. Sin embargo, en Jordania, además de la adaptación al cambio climático, es preciso diseñar estrategias de desarrollo sostenible más ambiciosas que contribuyan a reducir el riesgo futuro de escasez de agua. ABSTRACT Water scarcity is becoming a major concern in many parts of the world. Population growth, increasing needs for food production, socio-economic development and climate change represent pressures on water resources that many countries around the world will have to deal in the coming years. The Mediterranean region is one of the most water scarce regions of the world and is considered a climate change hotspot. Most projections of climate change envisage an increase in temperatures and a decrease in precipitation and a resulting reduction in water resources availability as a consequence of both reduced water availability and increased irrigation demands. Current policy development processes require the integration of climate change concerns into sectoral policies. However, sector-oriented studies often fail to address all the dimensions of climate change implications. Climate change research in the last years has evidenced the need for more integrated studies and methodologies that are capable of addressing the multi-scale and multi-dimensional nature of climate change. This research attempts to provide a comprehensive view of water scarcity and climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation in Mediterranean contexts. It presents an integrated modelling framework that is progressively enlarged in a sequential multi-scale process in which a new dimension of climate change and water resources is addressed at every stage. It is comprised of four stages, each one explained in a different chapter. The first stage explores farm-level economic vulnerability in the Spanish Guadiana basin using a mathematical programming model in combination with an econometric model. Then, in a second stage, the use of a hydro-economic modelling framework that includes a crop growth model allows for the analysis of crop, farm and basin level processes taking into account different geographical and decision-making scales. This integrated tool is used for the analysis of climate change scenarios and for the assessment of potential adaptation options. The third stage includes the analysis of barriers to the effective implementation of adaptation processes based on socioinstitutional network analysis. Finally, a regional and country level perspective of water scarcity and climate change is provided focusing on different possible socio-economic development pathways and the effect of policies on future water scarcity. For this analysis, a panel-data econometric model and a hydro-economic model are applied for the analysis of the Mediterranean region and country level case studies in Spain and Jordan. The overall results of the study demonstrate the value of considering multiple scales and multiple dimensions in water management and climate change adaptation in the Mediterranean water scarce contexts analysed. Results show that climate change impacts in the Guadiana basin and in Spain may compromise the sustainability of irrigation systems and ecosystems. The analysis at the basin level highlights the prominent role of interactions between different water users and irrigation districts and the need to strengthen institutional capacity and common understanding in the basin to enhance the implementation of adaptation processes. The results of this research also illustrate the relevance of water policies in achieving sustainable development and climate change adaptation in water scarce areas such as the Mediterranean region. Specifically, the EU Water Framework Directive emerges as a powerful trigger for climate change adaptation. However, in Jordan, outreaching sustainable development strategies are required in addition to climate change adaptation to reduce future risk of water scarcity.

Analyzing climate change adaptation in the agriculture and water sectors: screening risks and opportunities.

As part of the Mediterranean area, the Guadiana basin in Spain is particularly exposed to increasing water stress due to climate change. Future warmer and drier climate will have negative implications for the sustainability of water resources and irrigation agriculture, the main socio- economic sector in the region. This paper illustrates a systematic analysis of climate change impacts and adaptation in the Guadiana basin based on a two-stage modeling approach. First, an integrated hydro-economic modeling framework was used to simulate the potential effects of regional climate change scenarios for the period 2000-2069. Second, a participatory multi-criteria technique, namely the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), was applied to rank potential adaptation measures based on agreed criteria. Results show that, in the middle-long run and under severe climate change, reduced water availability, lower crop yields and increased irrigation demands might lead to water shortages, crop failure, and up to ten percent of income losses to irrigators. AHP results show how private farming adaptation measures, including improving irrigation efficiency and adjusting crop varieties, are preferred to public adaptation measures, such as building new dams. The integrated quantitative and qualitative methodology used in this research can be considered a socially-based valuable tool to support adaptation decision-making.

The Spanish water ?pressure cooker?: Threading the interplay between resource resilient water governance outcomes by strengthening the robustness of water governance processes.

This paper uses the metaphor of a pressure cooker to highlight how water problems in Spain are highly geographical and sectorial in nature, with some specific hotspots which raise the temperature of the whole water complex system, turning many potentially solvable water problems into ?wicked problems?. The paper discusses the tendency for water governance to be hydrocentric, when often the drivers and in turn the ?solutions? to Spanish water problems lie outside the water sphere. The paper analyzes of the current water governance system by looking at water governance as both a process, and its key attributes like participation, trans- parency, equity and rule of law, as well as an analysis of water governance as an outcome by looking at efficiency and sustainability of water use in Spain. It concludes on the need to have a deeper knowledge on the interactions of water governance as a process and as an outcome and potential synergies and arguing that water governance is an inherently political process which calls for strengthening the capacity of the system by looking at the interactions of these different governance attributes.

Managing drought economic effects through insurance schemes based on local water availability.

In many arid or semi-arid Mediterranean regions, agriculture is dependent on irrigation. When hydrological drought phenomena occur, farmers suffer from water shortages, incurring important economic losses. Yet, there is not agricultural insurance available for lack of irrigation water. This work attempts to evaluate hydrological drought risk and its economic impact on crop production in order to provide the basis for the design of drought insurance for irrigated arable crops. With this objective a model that relates water availability with expected yields is developed. Crop water requirements are calculated from evapotranspiration, effective rainfall and soil water balance. FAO?s methodology and AquaCrop software have been used to establish the relationship between water allocations and crop yields. The analysis is applied to the irrigation zone ?Riegos de Bardenas?, which is located in the Ebro river basin, northeast Spain, to the main arable crops in the area. Results show the fair premiums of different hydrological drought insurance products. Whole-farm insurance or irrigation district insurance should be preferable to crop specific insurance due to the drought management strategies used by farmers.

The role of land and water for trade and food production in Latin America: Environmental trade-offs of agricultural intensification versus extensification

One of humanity’s major challenges of the 21st century will be meeting future food demands on an increasingly resource constrained-planet. Global food production will have to rise by 70 percent between 2000 and 2050 to meet effective demand which poses major challenges to food production systems. Doing so without compromising environmental integrity is an even greater challenge. This study looks at the interdependencies between land and water resources, agricultural production and environmental outcomes in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), an area of growing importance in international agricultural markets. Special emphasis is given to the role of LAC’s agriculture for (a) global food security and (b) environmental sustainability. We use the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT)—a global dynamic partial equilibrium model of the agricultural sector—to run different future production scenarios, and agricultural trade regimes out to 2050, and assess changes in related environmental indicators. Results indicate that further trade liberalization is crucial for improving food security globally, but that it would also lead to more environmental pressures in some regions across Latin America. Contrasting land expansion versus more intensified agriculture shows that productivity improvements are generally superior to agricultural land expansion, from an economic and environmental point of view. Finally, our analysis shows that there are trade-offs between environmental and food security goals for all agricultural development paths.

Supporting decision making under uncertainty: Development of a participatory integrated model for water management in the middle Guadiana river basin.

Following the Integrated Water Resources Management approach, the European Water Framework Directive demands Member States to develop water management plans at the catchment level. Those plans have to integrate the different interests and must be developed with stakeholder participation. To face these requirements, managers need tools to assess the impacts of possible management alternatives on natural and socio-economic systems. These tools should ideally be able to address the complexity and uncertainties of the water system, while serving as a platform for stakeholder participation. The objective of our research was to develop a participatory integrated assessment model, based on the combination of a crop model, an economic model and a participatory Bayesian network, with an application in the middle Guadiana sub-basin, in Spain. The methodology is intended to capture the complexity of water management problems, incorporating the relevant sectors, as well as the relevant scales involved in water management decision making. The integrated model has allowed us testing different management, market and climate change scenarios and assessing the impacts of such scenarios on the natural system (crops), on the socio-economic system (farms) and on the environment (water resources). Finally, this integrated assessment modelling process has allowed stakeholder participation, complying with the main requirements of current European water laws.

Implications of agricultural production, policy and land use changes on water resource assessment

Una gestión más eficiente y equitativa del agua a escala de cuenca no se puede centrar exclusivamente en el recurso hídrico en sí, sino también en otras políticas y disciplinas científicas. Existe un consenso creciente de que, además de la consideración de las cambiantes condiciones climáticas, es necesaria una integración de ámbitos de investigación tales como la agronomía, planificación del territorio y ciencias políticas y económicas a fin de satisfacer de manera sostenible las demandas de agua por parte de la sociedad y del medio natural. La Política Agrícola Común (PAC) es el principal motor de cambio en las tendencias de paisajes rurales y sistemas agrícolas, pero el deterioro del medio ambiente es ahora una de las principales preocupaciones. Uno de los cambios más relevantes se ha producido con la expansión e intensificación del olivar en España, principalmente con nuevas zonas de regadío o la conversión de olivares de secano a sistemas en regadío. Por otra parte, el cambio de las condiciones climáticas podría ejercer un papel importante en las tendencias negativas de las aportaciones a los ríos, pero no queda claro el papel que podrían estar jugando los cambios de uso de suelo y cobertura vegetal sobre las tendencias negativas de caudal observadas. Esta tesis tiene como objetivo mejorar el conocimiento de los efectos de la producción agrícola, política agraria y cambios de uso de suelo y cobertura vegetal sobre las condiciones de calidad del agua, respuesta hidrológica y apropiación del agua por parte de la sociedad. En primer lugar, el estudio determina las tendencias existentes de nitratos y sólidos en suspensión en las aguas superficiales de la cuenca del río Guadalquivir durante el periodo de 1998 a 2009. Desde una perspectiva de política agraria, la investigación trata de evaluar mediante un análisis de datos de panel las principales variables, incluyendo la reforma de la PAC de 2003, que están teniendo una influencia en ambos indicadores de calidad. En segundo lugar, la apropiación del agua y el nivel de contaminación por nitratos debido a la producción del aceite de oliva en España se determinan con una evaluación de la huella hídrica (HH), teniendo en cuenta una variabilidad espacial y temporal a largo de las provincias españolas y entre 1997 y 2008. Por último, la tesis analiza los efectos de los cambios de uso de suelo y cobertura vegetal sobre las tendencias negativas observadas en la zona alta del Turia, cabecera de la cuenca del río Júcar, durante el periodo 1973-2008 mediante una modelización ecohidrológica. En la cuenca del Guadalquivir cerca del 20% de las estaciones de monitoreo muestran tendencias significativas, lineales o cuadráticas, para cada indicador de calidad de agua. La mayoría de las tendencias significativas en nitratos están aumentando, y la mayoría de tendencias cuadráticas muestran un patrón en forma de U. Los modelos de regresión de datos de panel muestran que las variables más importantes que empeoran ambos indicadores de calidad del agua son la intensificación de biomasa y las exportaciones de ambos indicadores de calidad procedentes de aguas arriba. En regiones en las que el abandono agrícola y/o desintensificación han tenido lugar han mejorado las condiciones de calidad del agua. Para los nitratos, el desacoplamiento de las subvenciones a la agricultura y la reducción de la cuantía de las subvenciones a tierras de regadío subyacen en la reducción observada de la concentración de nitratos. Las medidas de modernización de regadíos y el establecimiento de zonas vulnerables a nitratos reducen la concentración en subcuencas que muestran una tendencia creciente de nitratos. Sin embargo, el efecto de las exportaciones de nitratos procedente de aguas arriba, la intensificación de la biomasa y los precios de los cultivos presentan un mayor peso, explicando la tendencia creciente observada de nitratos. Para los sólidos en suspensión, no queda de forma evidente si el proceso de desacoplamiento ha influido negativa o positivamente. Sin embargo, los mayores valores de las ayudas agrarias aún ligadas a la producción, en particular en zonas de regadío, conllevan un aumento de las tasas de erosión. Aunque la cuenca del Guadalquivir ha aumentado la producción agrícola y la eficiencia del uso del agua, el problema de las altas tasas de erosión aún no ha sido mitigado adecuadamente. El estudio de la huella hídrica (HH) revela que en 1 L de aceite de oliva español más del 99,5% de la HH está relacionado con la producción de la aceituna, mientras que menos del 0,5% se debe a otros componentes, es decir, a la botella, tapón y etiqueta. Durante el período estudiado, la HH verde en secano y en regadío representa alrededor del 72% y 12%, respectivamente, del total de la HH. Las HHs azul y gris representan 6% y 10%, respectivamente. La producción de aceitunas se concentra en regiones con una HH menor por unidad de producto. La producción de aceite de oliva ha aumentado su productividad del agua durante 1997-2008, incentivado por los crecientes precios del aceite, como también lo ha hecho la cantidad de exportaciones de agua virtual. De hecho, las mayores zonas productoras presentan una eficiencia alta del uso y de productividad del agua, así como un menor potencial de contaminación por nitratos. Pero en estas zonas se ve a la vez reflejado un aumento de presión sobre los recursos hídricos locales. El aumento de extracciones de agua subterránea relacionadas con las exportaciones de aceite de oliva podría añadir una mayor presión a la ya estresada cuenca del Guadalquivir, mostrando la necesidad de equilibrar las fuerzas del mercado con los recursos locales disponibles. Los cambios de uso de suelo y cobertura vegetal juegan un papel importante en el balance del agua de la cuenca alta del Turia, pero no son el principal motor que sustenta la reducción observada de caudal. El aumento de la temperatura es el principal factor que explica las mayores tasas de evapotranspiración y la reducción de caudales. Sin embargo, los cambios de uso de suelo y el cambio climático han tenido un efecto compensatorio en la respuesta hidrológica. Por un lado, el caudal se ha visto afectado negativamente por el aumento de la temperatura, mientras que los cambios de uso de suelo y cobertura vegetal han compensado positivamente con una reducción de las tasas de evapotranspiración, gracias a los procesos de disminución de la densidad de matorral y de degradación forestal. El estudio proporciona una visión que fortalece la interdisciplinariedad entre la planificación hidrológica y territorial, destacando la necesidad de incluir las implicaciones de los cambios de uso de suelo y cobertura vegetal en futuros planes hidrológicos. Estos hallazgos son valiosos para la gestión de la cuenca del río Turia, y el enfoque empleado es útil para la determinación del peso de los cambios de uso de suelo y cobertura vegetal en la respuesta hidrológica en otras regiones. ABSTRACT Achieving a more efficient and equitable water management at catchment scale does not only rely on the water resource itself, but also on other policies and scientific knowledge. There is a growing consensus that, in addition to consideration of changing climate conditions, integration with research areas such as agronomy, land use planning and economics and political science is required to meet sustainably the societal and environmental water demands. The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is a main driver for trends in rural landscapes and agricultural systems, but environmental deterioration is now a principal concern. One of the most relevant changes has occurred with the expansion and intensification of olive orchards in Spain, taking place mainly with new irrigated areas or with the conversion from rainfed to irrigated systems. Moreover, changing climate conditions might exert a major role on water yield trends, but it remains unclear the role that ongoing land use and land cover changes (LULCC) might have on observed river flow trends. This thesis aims to improve the understanding of the effects of agricultural production, policies and LULCC on water quality conditions, hydrological response and human water appropriation. Firstly, the study determines the existing trends for nitrates and suspended solids in the Guadalquivir river basin’s surface waters (south Spain) during the period from 1998 to 2009. From a policy perspective, the research tries to assess with panel data analysis the main drivers, including the 2003 CAP reform, which are having an influence on both water quality indicators. Secondly, water appropriation and nitrate pollution level originating from the production of olive oil in Spain is determined with a water footprint (WF) assessment, considering a spatial temporal variability across the Spanish provinces and from 1997 to 2008 years. Finally, the thesis analyzes the effects of the LULCC on the observed negative trends over the period 1973-2008 in the Upper Turia basin, headwaters of the Júcar river demarcation (east Spain), with ecohydrological modeling. In the Guadalquivir river basin about 20% of monitoring stations show significant trends, linear or quadratic, for each water quality indicator. Most significant trends of nitrates are augmenting than decreasing, and most significant quadratic terms of both indicators exhibit U-shaped patterns. The panel data models show that the most important drivers that are worsening nitrates and suspended solids in the basin are biomass intensification and exports of both water quality indicators from upland regions. In regions that agricultural abandonment and/or de-intensification have taken place the water quality conditions have improved. For nitrates, the decoupling of agricultural subsidies and the reduction of the amount of subsidies to irrigated land underlie the observed reduction of nitrates concentration. Measures of irrigation modernization and establishment of vulnerable zones to nitrates ameliorate the concentration of nitrates in subbasins showing an increasing trend. However, the effect of nitrates load from upland areas, intensification of biomass and crop prices present a greater weight leading to the final increasing trend in this subbasins group, where annual crops dominate. For suspended solids, there is no clear evidence that decoupling process have influenced negatively or positively. Nevertheless, greater values of subsidies still linked to production, particularly in irrigated regions, lead to increasing erosion rates. Although agricultural production has augmented in the basin and water efficiency in the agricultural sector has improved, the issue of high erosion rates has not yet been properly faced. The water footprint (WF) assessment reveals that for 1 L Spanish olive oil more than 99.5% of the WF is related to the olive fruit production, whereas less than 0.5% is due to other components i.e. bottle, cap and label. Over the studied period, the green WF in rainfed and irrigated systems represents about 72% and 12%, respectively, of the total WF. Blue and grey WFs represent 6% and 10%, respectively. The olive production is concentrated in regions with the smallest WF per unit of product. The olive oil production has increased its apparent water productivity from 1997 to 2008 incentivized by growing trade prices, but also did the amount of virtual water exports. In fact, the largest producing areas present high water use efficiency per product and apparent water productivity as well as less nitrates pollution potential, but this enhances the pressure on the available water resources. Increasing groundwater abstractions related to olive oil exports may add further pressure to the already stressed Guadalquivir basin. This shows the need to balance the market forces with the available local resources. Concerning the effects of LULCC on the Upper Turia basin’s streamflow, LULCC play a significant role on the water balance, but it is not the main driver underpinning the observed reduction on Turia's streamflow. Increasing mean temperature is the main factor supporting larger evapotranspiration rates and streamflow reduction. In fact, LULCC and climate change have had an offsetting effect on the streamflow generation during the study period. While streamflow has been negatively affected by increasing temperature, ongoing LULCC have positively compensated with reduced evapotranspiration rates, thanks to mainly shrubland clearing and forest degradation processes. The research provides insight for strengthening the interdisciplinarity between hydrological and spatial planning, highlighting the need to include the implications of LULCC in future hydrological plans. These findings are valuable for the management of the Turia river basin, as well as a useful approach for the determination of the weight of LULCC on the hydrological response in other regions.

Sistema de autenticación accesible para el hogar digital

El Hogar Digital Accesible (HDA) de la ETSIST nace con el propósito de acercar las nuevas Tecnologías de la Información a las personas que precisan de necesidades concretas de accesibilidad y usabilidad, dotándoles de herramientas que les permitan aumentar su calidad de vida, confort, seguridad y autonomía. El entorno del HDA consta de elementos de control para puertas, persianas, iluminación, agua o gas, sensores de temperatura, incendios, gas, sistemas de climatización, sistemas de entretenimiento y sistemas de seguridad tales como detectores de presencia y alarmas. Todo ello apoyado sobre una arquitectura de red que proporciona una pasarela residencial y un acceso a banda ancha. El objetivo principal de este PFG ha sido el desarrollo de un sistema de autenticación para el Hogar Digital Accesible de bajo coste. La idea de integrar un sistema de autenticación en el HDA, surge de la necesidad de proteger de accesos no deseados determinados servicios disponibles dentro de un ámbito privado. Algunos de estos servicios pueden ser tales como el acceso a la lectura de los mensajes disponibles en el contestador automático, el uso de equipos multimedia, la desconexión de alarmas de seguridad o simplemente la configuración de ambientes según el usuario que esté autenticado (intensidad de luz, temperatura de la sala, etc.). En el desarrollo han primado los principios de accesibilidad, usabilidad y seguridad necesarios para la creación de un entorno no invasivo, que permitiera acreditar la identidad del usuario frente al sistema HDA. Se ha planteado como posible solución, un sistema basado en el reconocimiento de un trazo realizado por el usuario. Este trazo se usará como clave de cara a validar a los usuarios. El usuario deberá repetir el trazado que registró en el sistema para autenticarse. Durante la ejecución del presente PFG, se justificará la elección de este mecanismo de autenticación frente a otras alternativas disponibles en el mercado. Para probar la aplicación, se ha podido contar con dos periféricos de distintas gamas, el uDraw creado para la PS3 que se compone de una tableta digitalizadora y un lápiz que permite recoger los trazos realizados por el usuario de forma inalámbrica y la tableta digitalizadora Bamboo de Wacom. La herramienta desarrollada permite a su vez, la posibilidad de ser usada por otro tipo de dispositivos como es el caso del reloj con acelerómetro de 3 ejes de Texas Instruments Chronos eZ430 capaz de trasladar los movimientos del usuario al puntero de un ratón. El PFG se encuentra dividido en tres grandes bloques de flujo de trabajo. El primero se centra en el análisis del sistema y las tecnologías que lo componen, incluyendo los distintos algoritmos disponibles para realizar la autenticación basada en reconocimiento de patrones aplicados a imágenes que mejor se adaptan a las necesidades del usuario. En el segundo bloque se recoge una versión de prueba basada en el análisis y el diseño UML realizado previamente, sobre la que se efectuaron pruebas de concepto y se comprobó la viabilidad del proyecto. El último bloque incluye la verificación y validación del sistema mediante pruebas que certifican que se han alcanzado los niveles de calidad necesarios para la consecución de los objetivos planteados, generando finalmente la documentación necesaria. Como resultado del trabajo realizado, se ha obtenido un sistema que plantea una arquitectura fácilmente ampliable lograda a través del uso de técnicas como la introspección, que permiten separar la lógica de la capa de negocio del código que la implementa, pudiendo de forma simple e intuitiva sustituir código mediante ficheros de configuración, lo que hace que el sistema sea flexible y escalable. Tras la realización del PFG, se puede concluir que el producto final obtenido ha respondido de forma satisfactoria alcanzando los niveles de calidad requeridos, siendo capaz de proporcionar un sistema de autenticación alternativo a los convencionales, manteniendo unas cotas de seguridad elevadas y haciendo de la accesibilidad y el precio sus características más reseñables. ABSTRACT. Accessible Digital Home (HDA) of the ETSIST was created with the aim of bringing the latest information and communications technologies closer to the people who has special needs of accessibility and usability increasing their quality of life, comfort, security and autonomy. The HDA environment has different control elements for doors, blinds, lighting, water or gas, temperature sensors, fire protection systems, gas flashover, air conditioning systems, entertainments systems and security systems such as intruders detectors and alarms. Everything supported by an architecture net which provides a broadband residential services gateway. The main goal of this PFG was the development of a low-cost authentication system for the Accessible Digital Home. The idea of integrating an authentication system on the HDA, stems from the need to safeguard certain private key network resources from unauthorized access. Some of said resources are the access to the answering machine messages, the use of multimedia devices, the alarms deactivation or the parameter settings for each environment as programmed by the authenticated user (light intensity, room temperature, etc.). During the development priority was given to concepts like accessibility, usability and security. All of them necessary to create a non invasive environment that allows the users to certify their identity. A system based on stroke pattern recognition, was considered as a possible solution. This stroke is used as a key to validate users. The user must repeat the stroke that was saved on the system to validate access. The selection of this authentication mechanism among the others available options will be justified during this PFG. Two peripherals with different ranges were used to test the application. One of them was uDraw design for the PS3. It is wireless and is formed by a pen and a drawing tablet that allow us to register the different strokes drawn by the user. The other one was the Wacom Bamboo tablet, that supports the same functionality but with better accuracy. The developed tool allows another kind of peripherals like the 3-axes accelerometer digital wristwatch Texas Instruments Chronos eZ430 capable of transfering user movements to the mouse cursor. The PFG is divided by three big blocks that represent different workflows. The first block is focused on the system analysis and the technologies related to it, including algorithms for image pattern recognition that fits the user's needs. The second block describes how the beta version was developed based on the UML analysis and design previously done. It was tested and the viability of the project was verified. The last block contains the system verification and validation. These processes certify that the requirements have been fulfilled as well as the quality levels needed to reach the planned goals. Finally all the documentation has been produced. As a result of the work, an expandable system has been created, due to the introspection that provides the opportunity to separate the business logic from the code that implements it. With this technique, the code could be replaced throughout configuration files which makes the system flexible and highly scalable. Once the PFG has finished, it must therefore be concluded that the final product has been a success and high levels of quality have been achieved. This authentication tool gives us a low-cost alternative to the conventional ones. The new authentication system remains security levels reasonably high giving particular emphasis to the accessibility and the price.

High power beam dump project for the accelerator prototype LIPAc: Cooling design and analysis

En el campo de la fusión nuclear y desarrollándose en paralelo a ITER (International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor), el proyecto IFMIF (International Fusion Material Irradiation Facility) se enmarca dentro de las actividades complementarias encaminadas a solucionar las barreras tecnológicas que aún plantea la fusión. En concreto IFMIF es una instalación de irradiación cuya misión es caracterizar materiales resistentes a condiciones extremas como las esperadas en los futuros reactores de fusión como DEMO (DEMOnstration power plant). Consiste de dos aceleradores de deuterones que proporcionan un haz de 125 mA y 40 MeV cada uno, que al colisionar con un blanco de litio producen un flujo neutrónico intenso (1017 neutrones/s) con un espectro similar al de los neutrones de fusión [1], [2]. Dicho flujo neutrónico es empleado para irradiar los diferentes materiales candidatos a ser empleados en reactores de fusión, y las muestras son posteriormente examinadas en la llamada instalación de post-irradiación. Como primer paso en tan ambicioso proyecto, una fase de validación y diseño llamada IFMIFEVEDA (Engineering Validation and Engineering Design Activities) se encuentra actualmente en desarrollo. Una de las actividades contempladas en esta fase es la construcción y operación de una acelarador prototipo llamado LIPAc (Linear IFMIF Prototype Accelerator). Se trata de un acelerador de deuterones de alta intensidad idéntico a la parte de baja energía de los aceleradores de IFMIF. Los componentes del LIPAc, que será instalado en Japón, son suministrados por diferentes países europeos. El acelerador proporcionará un haz continuo de deuterones de 9 MeV con una potencia de 1.125 MW que tras ser caracterizado con diversos instrumentos deberá pararse de forma segura. Para ello se requiere un sistema denominado bloque de parada (Beam Dump en inglés) que absorba la energía del haz y la transfiera a un sumidero de calor. España tiene el compromiso de suministrar este componente y CIEMAT (Centro de Investigaciones Energéticas Medioambientales y Tecnológicas) es responsable de dicha tarea. La pieza central del bloque de parada, donde se para el haz de iones, es un cono de cobre con un ángulo de 3.5o, 2.5 m de longitud y 5 mm de espesor. Dicha pieza está refrigerada por agua que fluye en su superficie externa por el canal que se forma entre el cono de cobre y otra pieza concéntrica con éste. Este es el marco en que se desarrolla la presente tesis, cuyo objeto es el diseño del sistema de refrigeración del bloque de parada del LIPAc. El diseño se ha realizado utilizando un modelo simplificado unidimensional. Se han obtenido los parámetros del agua (presión, caudal, pérdida de carga) y la geometría requerida en el canal de refrigeración (anchura, rugosidad) para garantizar la correcta refrigeración del bloque de parada. Se ha comprobado que el diseño permite variaciones del haz respecto a la situación nominal siendo el flujo crítico calorífico al menos 2 veces superior al nominal. Se han realizado asimismo simulaciones fluidodinámicas 3D con ANSYS-CFX en aquellas zonas del canal de refrigeración que lo requieren. El bloque de parada se activará como consecuencia de la interacción del haz de partículas lo que impide cualquier cambio o reparación una vez comenzada la operación del acelerador. Por ello el diseño ha de ser muy robusto y todas las hipótesis utilizadas en la realización de éste deben ser cuidadosamente comprobadas. Gran parte del esfuerzo de la tesis se centra en la estimación del coeficiente de transferencia de calor que es determinante en los resultados obtenidos, y que se emplea además como condición de contorno en los cálculos mecánicos. Para ello por un lado se han buscado correlaciones cuyo rango de aplicabilidad sea adecuado para las condiciones del bloque de parada (canal anular, diferencias de temperatura agua-pared de decenas de grados). En un segundo paso se han comparado los coeficientes de película obtenidos a partir de la correlación seleccionada (Petukhov-Gnielinski) con los que se deducen de simulaciones fluidodinámicas, obteniendo resultados satisfactorios. Por último se ha realizado una validación experimental utilizando un prototipo y un circuito hidráulico que proporciona un flujo de agua con los parámetros requeridos en el bloque de parada. Tras varios intentos y mejoras en el experimento se han obtenido los coeficientes de película para distintos caudales y potencias de calentamiento. Teniendo en cuenta la incertidumbre de las medidas, los valores experimentales concuerdan razonablemente bien (en el rango de 15%) con los deducidos de las correlaciones. Por motivos radiológicos es necesario controlar la calidad del agua de refrigeración y minimizar la corrosión del cobre. Tras un estudio bibliográfico se identificaron los parámetros del agua más adecuados (conductividad, pH y concentración de oxígeno disuelto). Como parte de la tesis se ha realizado asimismo un estudio de la corrosión del circuito de refrigeración del bloque de parada con el doble fin de determinar si puede poner en riesgo la integridad del componente, y de obtener una estimación de la velocidad de corrosión para dimensionar el sistema de purificación del agua. Se ha utilizado el código TRACT (TRansport and ACTivation code) adaptándalo al caso del bloque de parada, para lo cual se trabajó con el responsable (Panos Karditsas) del código en Culham (UKAEA). Los resultados confirman que la corrosión del cobre en las condiciones seleccionadas no supone un problema. La Tesis se encuentra estructurada de la siguiente manera: En el primer capítulo se realiza una introducción de los proyectos IFMIF y LIPAc dentro de los cuales se enmarca esta Tesis. Además se describe el bloque de parada, siendo el diseño del sistema de rerigeración de éste el principal objetivo de la Tesis. En el segundo y tercer capítulo se realiza un resumen de la base teórica así como de las diferentes herramientas empleadas en el diseño del sistema de refrigeración. El capítulo cuarto presenta los resultados del relativos al sistema de refrigeración. Tanto los obtenidos del estudio unidimensional, como los obtenidos de las simulaciones fluidodinámicas 3D mediante el empleo del código ANSYS-CFX. En el quinto capítulo se presentan los resultados referentes al análisis de corrosión del circuito de refrigeración del bloque de parada. El capítulo seis se centra en la descripción del montaje experimental para la obtención de los valores de pérdida de carga y coeficiente de transferencia del calor. Asimismo se presentan los resultados obtenidos en dichos experimentos. Finalmente encontramos un capítulo de apéndices en el que se describen una serie de experimentos llevados a cabo como pasos intermedios en la obtención del resultado experimental del coeficiente de película. También se presenta el código informático empleado para el análisis unidimensional del sistema de refrigeración del bloque de parada llamado CHICA (Cooling and Heating Interaction and Corrosion Analysis). ABSTRACT In the nuclear fusion field running in parallel to ITER (International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor) as one of the complementary activities headed towards solving the technological barriers, IFMIF (International Fusion Material Irradiation Facility) project aims to provide an irradiation facility to qualify advanced materials resistant to extreme conditions like the ones expected in future fusion reactors like DEMO (DEMOnstration Power Plant). IFMIF consists of two constant wave deuteron accelerators delivering a 125 mA and 40 MeV beam each that will collide on a lithium target producing an intense neutron fluence (1017 neutrons/s) with a similar spectra to that of fusion neutrons [1], [2]. This neutron flux is employed to irradiate the different material candidates to be employed in the future fusion reactors, and the samples examined after irradiation at the so called post-irradiative facilities. As a first step in such an ambitious project, an engineering validation and engineering design activity phase called IFMIF-EVEDA (Engineering Validation and Engineering Design Activities) is presently going on. One of the activities consists on the construction and operation of an accelerator prototype named LIPAc (Linear IFMIF Prototype Accelerator). It is a high intensity deuteron accelerator identical to the low energy part of the IFMIF accelerators. The LIPAc components, which will be installed in Japan, are delivered by different european countries. The accelerator supplies a 9 MeV constant wave beam of deuterons with a power of 1.125 MW, which after being characterized by different instruments has to be stopped safely. For such task a beam dump to absorb the beam energy and take it to a heat sink is needed. Spain has the compromise of delivering such device and CIEMAT (Centro de Investigaciones Energéticas Medioambientales y Tecnológicas) is responsible for such task. The central piece of the beam dump, where the ion beam is stopped, is a copper cone with an angle of 3.5o, 2.5 m long and 5 mm width. This part is cooled by water flowing on its external surface through the channel formed between the copper cone and a concentric piece with the latter. The thesis is developed in this realm, and its objective is designing the LIPAc beam dump cooling system. The design has been performed employing a simplified one dimensional model. The water parameters (pressure, flow, pressure loss) and the required annular channel geometry (width, rugoisty) have been obtained guaranteeing the correct cooling of the beam dump. It has been checked that the cooling design allows variations of the the beam with respect to the nominal position, being the CHF (Critical Heat Flux) at least twice times higher than the nominal deposited heat flux. 3D fluid dynamic simulations employing ANSYS-CFX code in the beam dump cooling channel sections which require a more thorough study have also been performed. The beam dump will activateasaconsequenceofthe deuteron beam interaction, making impossible any change or maintenance task once the accelerator operation has started. Hence the design has to be very robust and all the hypotheses employed in the design mustbecarefully checked. Most of the work in the thesis is concentrated in estimating the heat transfer coefficient which is decisive in the obtained results, and is also employed as boundary condition in the mechanical analysis. For such task, correlations which applicability range is the adequate for the beam dump conditions (annular channel, water-surface temperature differences of tens of degrees) have been compiled. In a second step the heat transfer coefficients obtained from the selected correlation (Petukhov- Gnielinski) have been compared with the ones deduced from the 3D fluid dynamic simulations, obtaining satisfactory results. Finally an experimental validation has been performed employing a prototype and a hydraulic circuit that supplies a flow with the requested parameters in the beam dump. After several tries and improvements in the experiment, the heat transfer coefficients for different flows and heating powers have been obtained. Considering the uncertainty in the measurements the experimental values agree reasonably well (in the order of 15%) with the ones obtained from the correlations. Due to radiological reasons the quality of the cooling water must be controlled, hence minimizing the copper corrosion. After performing a bibligraphic study the most adequate water parameters were identified (conductivity, pH and dissolved oxygen concentration). As part of this thesis a corrosion study of the beam dump cooling circuit has been performed with the double aim of determining if corrosion can pose a risk for the copper beam dump , and obtaining an estimation of the corrosion velocitytodimension the water purification system. TRACT code(TRansport and ACTivation) has been employed for such study adapting the code for the beam dump case. For such study a collaboration with the code responsible (Panos Karditsas) at Culham (UKAEA) was established. The work developed in this thesis has supposed the publication of three articles in JCR journals (”Journal of Nuclear Materials” y ”Fusion Engineering and Design”), as well as presentations in more than four conferences and relevant meetings.