Diagnosing Causes of Water Scarcity in Complex Water Resources Systems and Identifying Risk Management Actions

From the water management perspective, water scarcity is an unacceptable risk of facing water shortages to serve water demands in the near future. Water scarcity may be temporary and related to drought conditions or other accidental situation, or may be permanent and due to deeper causes such as excessive demand growth, lack of infrastructure for water storage or transport, or constraints in water management. Diagnosing the causes of water scarcity in complex water resources systems is a precondition to adopt effective drought risk management actions. In this paper we present four indices which have been developed to evaluate water scarcity. We propose a methodology for interpretation of index values that can lead to conclusions about the reliability and vulnerability of systems to water scarcity, as well as to diagnose their possible causes and to propose solutions. The described methodology was applied to the Ebro river basin, identifying existing and expected problems and possible solutions. System diagnostics, based exclusively on the analysis of index values, were compared with the known reality as perceived by system managers, validating the conclusions in all cases

Improving the management of water and nitrogen resources in cropping systems by using simulation models

Los modelos de simulación de cultivos permiten analizar varias combinaciones de laboreo-rotación y explorar escenarios de manejo. El modelo DSSAT fue evaluado bajo condiciones de secano en un experimento de campo de 16 años en la semiárida España central. Se evaluó el efecto del sistema de laboreo y las rotaciones basadas en cereales de invierno, en el rendimiento del cultivo y la calidad del suelo. Los modelos CERES y CROPGRO se utilizaron para simular el crecimiento y rendimiento del cultivo, mientras que el modelo DSSAT CENTURY se utilizó en las simulaciones de SOC y SN. Tanto las observaciones de campo como las simulaciones con CERES-Barley, mostraron que el rendimiento en grano de la cebada era mas bajo para el cereal continuo (BB) que para las rotaciones de veza (VB) y barbecho (FB) en ambos sistemas de laboreo. El modelo predijo más nitrógeno disponible en el laboreo convencional (CT) que en el no laboreo (NT) conduciendo a un mayor rendimiento en el CT. El SOC y el SN en la capa superficial del suelo, fueron mayores en NT que en CT, y disminuyeron con la profundidad en los valores tanto observados como simulados. Las mejores combinaciones para las condiciones de secano estudiadas fueron CT-VB y CT-FB, pero CT presentó menor contenido en SN y SOC que NT. El efecto beneficioso del NT en SOC y SN bajo condiciones Mediterráneas semiáridas puede ser identificado por observaciones de campo y por simulaciones de modelos de cultivos. La simulación del balance de agua en sistemas de cultivo es una herramienta útil para estudiar como el agua puede ser utilizado eficientemente. La comparación del balance de agua de DSSAT , con una simple aproximación “tipping bucket”, con el modelo WAVE más mecanicista, el cual integra la ecuación de Richard , es un potente método para valorar el funcionamiento del modelo. Los parámetros de suelo fueron calibrados usando el método de optimización global Simulated Annealing (SA). Un lisímetro continuo de pesada en suelo desnudo suministró los valores observados de drenaje y evapotranspiración (ET) mientras que el contenido de agua en el suelo (SW) fue suministrado por sensores de capacitancia. Ambos modelos funcionaron bien después de la optimización de los parámetros de suelo con SA, simulando el balance de agua en el suelo para el período de calibración. Para el período de validación, los modelos optimizados predijeron bien el contenido de agua en el suelo y la evaporación del suelo a lo largo del tiempo. Sin embargo, el drenaje fue predicho mejor con WAVE que con DSSAT, el cual presentó mayores errores en los valores acumulados. Esto podría ser debido a la naturaleza mecanicista de WAVE frente a la naturaleza más funcional de DSSAT. Los buenos resultados de WAVE indican que, después de la calibración, este puede ser utilizado como "benchmark" para otros modelos para periodos en los que no haya medidas de campo del drenaje. El funcionamiento de DSSAT-CENTURY en la simulación de SOC y N depende fuertemente del proceso de inicialización. Se propuso como método alternativo (Met.2) la inicialización de las fracciones de SOC a partir de medidas de mineralización aparente del suelo (Napmin). El Met.2 se comparó con el método de inicialización de Basso et al. (2011) (Met.1), aplicando ambos métodos a un experimento de campo de 4 años en un área en regadío de España central. Nmin y Napmin fueron sobreestimados con el Met.1, ya que la fracción estable obtenida (SOC3) en las capas superficiales del suelo fue más baja que con Met.2. El N lixiviado simulado fue similar en los dos métodos, con buenos resultados en los tratamientos de barbecho y cebada. El Met.1 subestimó el SOC en la capa superficial del suelo cuando se comparó con una serie observada de 12 años. El crecimiento y rendimiento del cultivo fueron adecuadamente simulados con ambos métodos, pero el N en la parte aérea de la planta y en el grano fueron sobreestimados con el Met.1. Los resultados variaron significativamente con las fracciones iniciales de SOC, resaltando la importancia del método de inicialización. El Met.2 ofrece una alternativa para la inicialización del modelo CENTURY, mejorando la simulación de procesos de N en el suelo. La continua emergencia de nuevas variedades de híbridos modernos de maíz limita la aplicación de modelos de simulación de cultivos, ya que estos nuevos híbridos necesitan ser calibrados en el campo para ser adecuados para su uso en los modelos. El desarrollo de relaciones basadas en la duración del ciclo, simplificaría los requerimientos de calibración facilitando la rápida incorporación de nuevos cultivares en DSSAT. Seis híbridos de maiz (FAO 300 hasta FAO 700) fueron cultivados en un experimento de campo de dos años en un área semiárida de regadío en España central. Los coeficientes genéticos fueron obtenidos secuencialmente, comenzando con los parámetros de desarrollo fenológico (P1, P2, P5 and PHINT), seguido de los parámetros de crecimiento del cultivo (G2 and G3). Se continuó el procedimiento hasta que la salida de las simulaciones estuvo en concordancia con las observaciones fenológicas de campo. Después de la calibración, los parámetros simulados se ajustaron bien a los parámetros observados, con bajos RMSE en todos los casos. Los P1 y P5 calibrados, incrementaron con la duración del ciclo. P1 fue una función lineal del tiempo térmico (TT) desde emergencia hasta floración y P5 estuvo linealmente relacionada con el TT desde floración a madurez. No hubo diferencias significativas en PHINT entre híbridos de FAO-500 a 700 , ya que tuvieron un número de hojas similar. Como los coeficientes fenológicos estuvieron directamente relacionados con la duración del ciclo, sería posible desarrollar rangos y correlaciones que permitan estimar dichos coeficientes a partir de la clasificación del ciclo. ABSTRACT Crop simulation models allow analyzing various tillage-rotation combinations and exploring management scenarios. DSSAT model was tested under rainfed conditions in a 16-year field experiment in semiarid central Spain. The effect of tillage system and winter cereal-based rotations on the crop yield and soil quality was evaluated. The CERES and CROPGRO models were used to simulate crop growth and yield, while the DSSAT CENTURY was used in the SOC and SN simulations. Both field observations and CERES-Barley simulations, showed that barley grain yield was lower for continuous cereal (BB) than for vetch (VB) and fallow (FB) rotations for both tillage systems. The model predicted higher nitrogen availability in the conventional tillage (CT) than in the no tillage (NT) leading to a higher yield in the CT. The SOC and SN in the top layer, were higher in NT than in CT, and decreased with depth in both simulated and observed values. The best combinations for the dry land conditions studied were CT-VB and CT-FB, but CT presented lower SN and SOC content than NT. The beneficial effect of NT on SOC and SN under semiarid Mediterranean conditions can be identified by field observations and by crop model simulations. The simulation of the water balance in cropping systems is a useful tool to study how water can be used efficiently. The comparison of DSSAT soil water balance, with a simpler “tipping bucket” approach, with the more mechanistic WAVE model, which integrates Richard’s equation, is a powerful method to assess model performance. The soil parameters were calibrated by using the Simulated Annealing (SA) global optimizing method. A continuous weighing lysimeter in a bare fallow provided the observed values of drainage and evapotranspiration (ET) while soil water content (SW) was supplied by capacitance sensors. Both models performed well after optimizing soil parameters with SA, simulating the soil water balance components for the calibrated period. For the validation period, the optimized models predicted well soil water content and soil evaporation over time. However, drainage was predicted better by WAVE than by DSSAT, which presented larger errors in the cumulative values. That could be due to the mechanistic nature of WAVE against the more functional nature of DSSAT. The good results from WAVE indicate that, after calibration, it could be used as benchmark for other models for periods when no drainage field measurements are available. The performance of DSSAT-CENTURY when simulating SOC and N strongly depends on the initialization process. Initialization of the SOC pools from apparent soil N mineralization (Napmin) measurements was proposed as alternative method (Met.2). Method 2 was compared to the Basso et al. (2011) initialization method (Met.1), by applying both methods to a 4-year field experiment in a irrigated area of central Spain. Nmin and Napmin were overestimated by Met.1, since the obtained stable pool (SOC3) in the upper layers was lower than from Met.2. Simulated N leaching was similar for both methods, with good results in fallow and barley treatments. Method 1 underestimated topsoil SOC when compared with a 12-year observed serial. Crop growth and yield were properly simulated by both methods, but N in shoots and grain were overestimated by Met.1. Results varied significantly with the initial SOC pools, highlighting the importance of the initialization procedure. Method 2 offers an alternative to initialize the CENTURY model, enhancing the simulation of soil N processes. The continuous emergence of new varieties of modern maize hybrids limits the application of crop simulation models, since these new hybrids should be calibrated in the field to be suitable for model use. The development of relationships based on the cycle duration, would simplify the calibration requirements facilitating the rapid incorporation of new cultivars into DSSAT. Six maize hybrids (FAO 300 through FAO 700) were grown in a 2-year field experiment in a semiarid irrigated area of central Spain. Genetic coefficients were obtained sequentially, starting with the phenological development parameters (P1, P2, P5 and PHINT), followed by the crop growth parameters (G2 and G3). The procedure was continued until the simulated outputs were in good agreement with the field phenological observations. After calibration, simulated parameters matched observed parameters well, with low RMSE in most cases. The calibrated P1 and P5 increased with the duration of the cycle. P1 was a linear function of the thermal time (TT) from emergence to silking and P5 was linearly related with the TT from silking to maturity . There were no significant differences in PHINT between hybrids from FAO-500 to 700 , as they had similar leaf number. Since phenological coefficients were directly related with the cycle duration, it would be possible to develop ranges and correlations which allow to estimate such coefficients from the cycle classification.

Land cover dynamics and climate change implications on water resources in South Pacific Costa Rica

Water is fundamental to human life and the availability of freshwater is often a constraint on human welfare and economic development. Consequently, the potential effects of global changes on hydrology and water resources are considered among the most severe and vital ones. Water scarcity is one of the main problems in the rural communities of Central America, as a result of an important degradation of catchment areas and the over-exploitation of aquifers. The present Thesis is focused on two critical aspects of global changes over water resources: (1) the potential effects of climate change on water quantity and (2) the impacts of land cover and land use changes on the hydrological processes and water cycle. Costa Rica is among the few developing countries that have recently achieved a land use transition with a net increase in forest cover. Osa Region in South Pacific Costa Rica is an appealing study site to assess water supply management plans and to measure the effects of deforestation, forest transitions and climate change projections reported in the region. Rural Community Water Supply systems (ASADAS) in Osa are dealing with an increasing demand of freshwater due to the growing population and the change in the way of life in the rural livelihoods. Land cover mosaics which have resulted from the above mentioned processes are characterized by the abandonment of marginal farmland with the spread over these former grasslands of high return crops and the expansion of secondary forests due to reforestation initiatives. These land use changes have a significant impact on runoff generation in priority water-supply catchments in the humid tropics, as evidenced by the analysis of the Tinoco Experimental Catchment in the Southern Pacific area of Costa Rica. The monitoring system assesses the effects of the different land uses on the runoff responses and on the general water cycle of the basin. Runoff responses at plot scale are analyzed for secondary forests, oil palm plantations, forest plantations and grasslands. The Oil palm plantation plot presented the highest runoff coefficient (mean RC=32.6%), twice that measured under grasslands (mean RC=15.3%) and 20-fold greater than in secondary forest (mean RC=1.7%). A Thornthwaite-type water balance is proposed to assess the impact of land cover and climate change scenarios over water availability for rural communities in Osa Region. Climate change projections were obtained by the downscaling of BCM2, CNCM3 and ECHAM5 models. Precipitation and temperature were averaged and conveyed by the A1B, A2 and B1 IPCC climate scenario for 2030, 2060 and 2080. Precipitation simulations exhibit a positive increase during the dry season for the three scenarios and a decrease during the rainy season, with the highest magnitude (up to 25%) by the end of the 21st century under scenario B1. Monthly mean temperature simulations increase for the three scenarios throughout the year with a maximum increase during the dry season of 5% under A1B and A2 scenarios and 4% under B1 scenario. The Thornthwaite-type Water Balance model indicates important decreases of water surplus for the three climate scenarios during the rainy season, with a maximum decrease on May, which under A1B scenario drop up to 20%, under A2 up to 40% and under B1 scenario drop up to almost 60%. Land cover scenarios were created taking into account current land cover dynamics of the region. Land cover scenario 1 projects a deforestation situation, with forests decreasing up to 15% due to urbanization of the upper catchment areas; land cover scenario 2 projects a forest recovery situation where forested areas increase due to grassland abandonment on areas with more than 30% of slope. Deforestation scenario projects an annual water surplus decrease of 15% while the reforestation scenario projects a water surplus increase of almost 25%. This water balance analysis indicates that climate scenarios are equal contributors as land cover scenarios to future water resource estimations.

Knowledge Management and Information Systems based on Workflow Technology

Knowledge management is critical for the success of virtual communities, especially in the case of distributed working groups. A representative example of this scenario is the distributed software development, where it is necessary an optimal coordination to avoid common problems such as duplicated work. In this paper the feasibility of using the workflow technology as a knowledge management system is discussed, and a practical use case is presented. This use case is an information system that has been deployed within a banking environment. It combines common workflow technology with a new conception of the interaction among participants through the extension of existing definition languages.

A Fuzzy approach based on dynamic programming and metaheuristics for selecting safeguards for risk management for information systems

In this paper we focus on the selection of safeguards in a fuzzy risk analysis and management methodology for information systems (IS). Assets are connected by dependency relationships, and a failure of one asset may affect other assets. After computing impact and risk indicators associated with previously identified threats, we identify and apply safeguards to reduce risks in the IS by minimizing the transmission probabilities of failures throughout the asset network. However, as safeguards have associated costs, the aim is to select the safeguards that minimize costs while keeping the risk within acceptable levels. To do this, we propose a dynamic programming-based method that incorporates simulated annealing to tackle optimizations problems.

A study on the shallow water effect on a ship's pivot point

Information on the pivot point of a turning ship is collected, taking into account practical notes and manuals on ship maneuvering as well as experimental data and simulated results which all together reveal a consistent behavior when varying water depth or some ship particulars. Results from the studies already carried out on the Riverine Support Patrol Vessel (RSPV) of the Colombian Navy are included in this one, in order to estimate the pivot point’s position and to contrast those results with theory and available empirical observations. Linear manoeuvrability theory is tested and its results show poor approximation with respect to the kinematic equations. As to the depth variation effect, by means of fullscale experiments it is confirmed that the pivot point’s position, when going to shallow water, always varies in the same way, proving to be coherent with the available information on this phenomenon.

A Model-Based Monitoring Architecture for Heterogeneous Enterprise Services and Information Systems

Runtime management of distributed information systems is a complex and costly activity. One of the main challenges that must be addressed is obtaining a complete and updated view of all the managed runtime resources. This article presents a monitoring architecture for heterogeneous and distributed information systems. It is composed of two elements: an information model and an agent infrastructure. The model negates the complexity and variability of these systems and enables the abstraction over non-relevant details. The infrastructure uses this information model to monitor and manage the modeled environment, performing and detecting changes in execution time. The agents infrastructure is further detailed and its components and the relationships between them are explained. Moreover, the proposal is validated through a set of agents that instrument the JEE Glassfish application server, paying special attention to support distributed configuration scenarios.

Managing Industrial Simulator Visual Databases Using Geographic Information Systems

Geographic Information Systems are developed to handle enormous volumes of data and are equipped with numerous functionalities intended to capture, store, edit, organise, process and analyse or represent the geographically referenced information. On the other hand, industrial simulators for driver training are real-time applications that require a virtual environment, either geospecific, geogeneric or a combination of the two, over which the simulation programs will be run. In the final instance, this environment constitutes a geographic location with its specific characteristics of geometry, appearance, functionality, topography, etc. The set of elements that enables the virtual simulation environment to be created and in which the simulator user can move, is usually called the Visual Database (VDB). The main idea behind the work being developed approaches a topic that is of major interest in the field of industrial training simulators, which is the problem of analysing, structuring and describing the virtual environments to be used in large driving simulators. This paper sets out a methodology that uses the capabilities and benefits of Geographic Information Systems for organising, optimising and managing the visual Database of the simulator and for generally enhancing the quality and performance of the simulator.

Interchanging lexical resources on the Semantic Web

Lexica and terminology databases play a vital role in many NLP applications, but currently most such resources are published in application-specific formats, or with custom access interfaces, leading to the problem that much of this data is in ‘‘data silos’’ and hence difficult to access. The Semantic Web and in particular the Linked Data initiative provide effective solutions to this problem, as well as possibilities for data reuse by inter-lexicon linking, and incorporation of data categories by dereferencable URIs. The Semantic Web focuses on the use of ontologies to describe semantics on the Web, but currently there is no standard for providing complex lexical information for such ontologies and for describing the relationship between the lexicon and the ontology. We present our model, lemon, which aims to address these gaps

Optimizing rabbit production under heat stress: cage density and cage size during fattening, and breeding system and water quality on rabbit does

The aim of this work was to evaluate different management strategies to optimize rabbit production under chronic heat stress. To achieve it, three trials were conducted. In the first trial, to find the optimal cage density in tropical very dry forest condition, were measured growth performance, mortality rate, injured animals and carcass performance over an initial population of 300 cross-breed rabbits of New Zealand, California, Butterfly, Dutch and Satin, weaned at 30 days (535 ± 8 g, standard error). Treatments evaluated were: 6, 12, 18 and 24 rabbits/m2 (3, 6, 9 and 12 rabbits/cage, respectively, each cage of 0.5 m2). The maximal temperature-humidity index indicated a severe heat stress from weaning to 2.2 kg body weight (experimental time). At the end of experimental period 10, 20, 30 and 30 rabbits from the treatments of 6, 12, 18 and 24 rabbits/m2, respectively, were slaughtered and carcass performance recorded. Average daily gain and feed intake decreased by 0.31 ± 0.070 and 1.20 ± 0.25 g, respectively, per each unit that the density increased at the beginning of the experiment (P = 0.001). It increased the length of the fattening period by 0.91 ± 0.16 d (P = 0.001) per each unit of increment of density. However, rabbit production (kg/m2) increased linear and quadratically with the density (P < 0.008). Animals housed at the highest density compared to the lower one tended to show a higher incidence of ringworm (68.9 vs 39.4%; P = 0.075), injured animals (16.8 vs 3.03%; P = 0.12) and mortality (20.5 vs 9.63%; P = 0.043). The proportion of scapular fat (P = 0.042) increased linearly with increasing levels of density. Increasing density reduced linearly dorsal length (P = 0.001), and reduced linear and quadratically drip loss percentage (P = 0.097 and 0.018, respectively). In the second trial, 46 nulliparous rabbit does (23 clipped and 23 unclipped) with a BW of 3.67 ± 0.05 kg (s.e.) were used to evaluate heat stress and circadian rhythms comparing unclipped and clipped rabbit does, and to study if a more extensive breeding system increase litters performance at weaning without impairing rabbit doe performance,. Rectal temperature, feed and water 4 intake were recorded for 24 h. Rabbit does were mated 7 d after circadian measurements, and randomly assigned to two breeding systems. Control (C): mated at 14 d after parturition + litter weaned at 35 d of age. Extensive (E): mate at 21 after parturition + litter weaned at 42 d of age. The first three cycles were evaluated concerning to rabbit doe and litter performance. Two hundred twenty eight weaned rabbits, were divided into two cage sizes: 0.5 and 0.25 m2 with same density (16 rabbit/m2) and growing performance was recorded. Farm and rectal temperatures were minimal and feed and water intake maximal during the night (P < 0.001). Unclipped rabbit does showed higher rectal temperature (P = 0.045) and lower feed intake respect to clipped does (P = 0.019) which suggest a lower heat stress in the latter. Kits weaned per litter was reduced by 33% (P=0.038) in C group. This reduction was more important in the 2nd and 3rd cycles compared to the first (P ≤ 0.054). Rabbit doe feed efficiency tended to decrease in E respect C group (P = 0.093), whereas it was impaired from the first to the third cycle by 48% (P = 0.014). Growing rabbits from the E group were heavier at weaning (by 38%. P < 0.001), showed a higher feed intake (+7.4%) and lower feed efficiency (-8.4%) throughout the fattening period (P ≤ 0.056) respect to C group. Cage size had minor influence in growing performance. In the third trial, forty five non pregnant and non lactating rabbit does (21 nulliparous and 24 multiparous) were assigned randomly to farm water and to potable water to study if a water quality improvement can affect positively rabbit doe response to heat stress during pregnancy and lactation. A transponder was implanted in each animal to record subcutaneous temperature at 07:30 and 14:30 h. Experimental period extended from pregnancy (with no lactation) to the next lactation (until day 28). Body temperature and milk production were recorded daily, and body condition, feed and water intake weekly. Water quality did not affect any trait (P ≥ 0.15). Pregnant rabbit does were classified as does that weaned (W: 47%), not weaned (NW: 44%) or those pregnant that did not deliver (NB: 9%). Body temperature and feed intake decreased during pregnancy (P ≤ 0.031), but water intake remained constant. In this period body temperature decreased with metabolic weight (P ≤ 0.009). In W and NW does, 5 from mating to birth energy and protein balance impaired (P≤0.011). Body temperature of W does tended to be the lowest (P ≤ 0.090). Pregnancy length and total number of kits born tended to be longer and higher in NW than in W does (P = 0.10 and 0.053, respectively). Kit mortality at birth and from birth to 14 d of lactation was high, being worse for NW than for W does (97 vs. 40%; P<0.001). Body temperature during lactation was maximal at day 12, and milk production increased it (P ≤ 0.025). . In conclusion, in our heat stress conditions densities higher than 18 rabbits/m2 (34 kg/m2) at the end of fattening, are not recommended despite cage size, gestation and lactation productivity impaired not only when lactation is extended and along successive reproductive cycles but also due to a reduced embryo/kit survival and finally water quality improvement did not attenuate negative effect of heat stress. RESUMEN El propósito de éste trabajo fue evaluar diferentes estrategias de manejo para optimizar la producción de conejos bajo estrés térmico. Para lo cual se desarrollaron tres experimentos. En el primer experimento, para encontrar el número óptimo de gazapos por m2 de jaula durante el cebo en condiciones de bosque muy seco tropical, se estudiaron los rendimientos durante el cebo, mortalidad, animales lesionados y rendimiento de la canal sobre una población inicial de 300 conejos mestizos de Nueva Zelanda, California, Mariposa, Holandés y Satin, destetados a los 30 días de edad (535 ± 8g, error estándar). Los tratamientos evaluados fueron: 6, 12, 18 y 24 conejos/m2 (3, 6, 9 y 12 conejos/jaula, respectivamente, en jaulas de 0.5 m2). Durante el período experimental (destete a 2.2 kg de peso vivo), se observaron valores de THI correspondientes con un estrés térmico severo (THI max. De 31 a 35). Al final del período experimental, 10, 20, 30, y 30 conejos de los tratamientos con densidades de 6, 12, 18 y 24 conejos/m2, respectivamente, fueron sacrificados y su canal fue valorada. El promedio de la ganancia diaria y el consumo de alimento disminuyeron en 0.31 ± 0.070 y 1.20 ± 0.25 g, respectivamente, por cada unidad de incremento en la densidad al inicio del experimento (P=0.001). Esto alargó el período de engorde en 0.91 ± 0.16 d (P=0.001) por cada unidad de incremento de la densidad. Sin embargo, la producción de conejos (kg/m2) aumentó lineal y cuadráticamente con la densidad (P<0.008). Los animales alojados en las mayores densidades en comparación con el resto tendieron a mostrar una mayore incidencia de tiña (68.9 vs 39.4%; P=0.075), de cantidad de animales heridos (16.8 vs 3.03%; P=0.12), así como de mortalidad (20.5 vs 9.63%; P=0.043). El aumento en la densidad aumentó linealmente la proporción de grasa escapular (P=0.042) y redujo linealmente la longitud dorsal (P=0.001), y lineal y cuadráticamente el porcentaje de pérdida por goteo (P=0.018). En el segundo experimento, 46 conejas nulliparas (23 rasuradas y 23 no rasuradas) con un peso vivo de 3.67 ± 0.05 kg (e.e.) fueron usadas para evaluar el estrés 8 térmico y los ritmos circadianos comparando conejas rasuradas o no, y estudiar si un sistema de crianza más extensivo mejora el desempeño de la camada al destete sin perjudicar la productividad de la coneja. Durante 24 h se midió la temperatura rectal, consumo de alimento y de agua. Las conejas fueron montadas 7 días después, y distribuidas en dos sistemas de crianza. El control (C): monta a 14 días posparto y destete a 35 d de edad. El extensivo (E): monta a 21 días posparto y destete a 42 d de edad. Se controló la productividad de la coneja y la camada durante los tres primeros ciclos. Doscientos veintiocho gazapos fueron distribuidos en dos tamaños de jaulas (0.5 y 0.25 m2) con la misma densidad (16 conejos/m2) y se controlaron sus rendimientos productivos. Durante la noche se observaron los valores mínimos para la temperatura ambiental y rectal, y los máximos para consumo de alimento y agua (P< 0.001). Las conejas no rasuradas mostraron mayor temperatura rectal (P=0.045) y menores valores de consumo de alimento con respecto a las conejas rasuradas (P=0.019), lo que sugiere un menor estrés térmico en las últimas. El número de gazapos destetados por camada se redujo en 33% (P=0.038) en el grupo C. Este comportamiento se acentuó en el 2do y 3er ciclo en comparación con el primero (P≤0.054). La eficiencia alimenticia de las conejas tendió a disminuir en el grupo E con respecto al grupo C (P=0.093), dicha tendencia se acentúa del primer al tercer ciclo en un 48% (P=0.014). Los gazapos en fase de crecimiento provenientes del grupo E fueron más pesados al momento del destete (en 38% P<0.001), mostrando un mayor consumo de alimento (+7.4%) y menor eficiencia alimenticia (-8.4%) a lo largo del engorde (P≤0.056) con respecto al grupo C. El tamaño de la jaula tuvo una mínima influencia en el comportamiento durante el crecimiento de éstos gazapos. En el tercer experimento, cuarenta y cinco conejas no gestantes ni lactantes (21 nulíparas y 24 multíparas) se les asignó al azar agua dos tipos de agua: común de la granja y agua potable, con el fin de estudiar si una mejora en la calidad del agua puede afectar positivamente la respuesta de la coneja al estrés térmico durante la gestación y la lactancia. Se les implantó un transponder para registrar la temperatura subcutánea a las 7:30 y a las 14:30 h. El período experimental se extendió desde la gestación (sin 9 lactancia) hasta la lactanción consecutiva (hasta los 28 días). La temperatura corporal y la producción de leche se controlaron diariamente, y la condición corporal, consumo de agua y alimento, semanalmente. La calidad del agua no afectó a ninguna variable (P≥0.15). Las conejas preñadas fueron clasificadas como conejas que destetaron (W: 47%), que no destetaron (NW:44%) o aquellas que no parieron (NB: 9%). La temperatura corporal y consumo de alimento disminuyeron durante la gestación (P≤0.031), mientras que el consumo de agua se mantuvo constante. La temperatura corporal descendió con el peso metabólico durante la gestación (P≤0.009). El balance de energía y proteína disminuyó desde la monta al parto para las conejas W y NW (P≤0.011). Durante la gestación la temperatura corporal tendió a ser menor en las conejas W (P≤0.090). La longitud de la gestación y el número total de gazapos nacidos tendieron a ser mayores en conejas NW que en conejas W (P=0.10 y 0.053, respectivamente). La mortalidad de los gazapos al parto y del parto a los 14 días de lactancia fue alta, siendo peor para las conejas NW que para las W (97 vs 40%; P<0.001). Durante la lactancia la temperatura corporal alcanzó su valor máximo para el día 12, y la producción de leche indujo un incremento en la misma (P≤0.025). En conclusión, en nuestras condiciones de estrés térmico y sin importar el tamaño de la jaula, no se recomiendan densidades mayores a 18 conejos/m2 (34 kg/m2) al final del engorde. La productividad de la gestación y la lactancia disminuyen cuando la lactancia es mayor y se suceden varios ciclos reproductivos seguidos. Esto se debe al efecto negativo del estrés térmico sobre la vitalidad y supervivencia del embrión/gazapo. La mejora de la calidad del agua atenuó el efecto negativo del estrés térmico. Las conejas más productoras parece que son aquéllas que consiguen manejar mejor el estrés térmico.

Real time passenger information systems and quality of bus services

One of the main problems in urban areas is the steady growth in car ownership and traffic levels. Therefore, the challenge of sustainability is focused on a shift of the demand for mobility from cars to collective means of transport. For this end, buses are a key element of the public transport systems. In this respect Real Time Passenger Information (RTPI) systems help citizens change their travel behaviour towards more sustainable transport modes. This paper provides an assessment methodology which evaluates how RTPI systems improve the quality of bus services in two European cities, Madrid and Bremerhaven. In the case of Madrid, bus punctuality has increased by 3%. Regarding the travellers perception, Madrid raised its quality of service by 6% while Bremerhaven increased by 13%. On the other hand, the users ́ perception of Public Transport (PT) image increased by 14%.

A fuzzy approach to risk analysis in information systems

Assets are interrelated in risk analysis methodologies for information systems promoted by international standards. This means that an attack on one asset can be propagated through the network and threaten an organization's most valuable assets. It is necessary to valuate all assets, the direct and indirect asset dependencies, as well as the probability of threats and the resulting asset degradation. These methodologies do not, however, consider uncertain valuations and use precise values on different scales, usually percentages. Linguistic terms are used by the experts to represent assets values, dependencies and frequency and asset degradation associated with possible threats. Computations are based on the trapezoidal fuzzy numbers associated with these linguistic terms.

A fuzzy extension of MAGERIT methodology for risk analysis in information systems

We propose a fuzzy approach to deal with risk analysis for information systems. We extend MAGERIT methodology that valuates the asset dependencies to a fuzzy framework adding fuzzy linguistic terms to valuate the different elements (terminal asset values, asset dependencies as well as the probability of threats and the resulting asset degradation) in risk analysis. Computations are based on the trapezoidal fuzzy numbers associated with these linguistic terms and, finally, the results of these operations are translated into a linguistic term by means of a similarity function.

Quality of bus services performance: benefits of real time passenger information systems

One of the main problems in urban areas is the steady growth in car ownership and traffic levels. Therefore, the challenge of sustainability is focused on a shift of the demand for mobility from cars to collective means of transport. For this purpose, buses are a key element of the public transport systems. In this respect Real Time Passenger Information (RTPI) systems help people change their travel behaviour towards more sustainable transport modes. This paper provides an assessment methodology which evaluates how RTPI systems improve the quality of bus services performance in two European cities, Madrid and Bremerhaven. In the case of Madrid, bus punctuality has increased by 3%. Regarding the travellers perception, Madrid raised its quality of service by 6% while Bremerhaven increased by 13%. On the other hand, the users¿ perception of Public Transport (PT) image increased by 14%.

Evaluating alternative industrial network organizations and information systems

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to present a simulation‐based evaluation method for the comparison of different organizational forms and software support levels in the field of supply chain management (SCM). Design/methodology/approach – Apart from widely known logistic performance indicators, the discrete event simulation model considers explicitly coordination cost as stemming from iterative administration procedures. Findings - The method is applied to an exemplary supply chain configuration considering various parameter settings. Curiously, additional coordination cost does not always result in improved logistic performance. Influence factor variations lead to different organizational recommendations. The results confirm the high importance of (up to now) disregarded dimensions when evaluating SCM concepts and IT tools. Research limitations/implications – The model is based on simplified product and network structures. Future research shall include more complex, real world configurations. Practical implications – The developed method is designed for the identification of improvement potential when SCM software is employed. Coordination schemes based only on ERP systems are valid alternatives in industrial practice because significant investment IT can be avoided. Therefore, the evaluation of these coordination procedures, in particular the cost due to iterations, is of high managerial interest and the method provides a comprehensive tool for strategic IT decision making. Originality/value – Reviewed literature is mostly focused on the benefits of SCM software implementations. However, ERP system based supply chain coordination is still widespread industrial practice but associated coordination cost has not been addressed by researchers.