Improving the analysis of road pricing acceptability surveys by using hybrid models

Several international studies have analyzed the acceptability of road pricing schemes by means of an attitude survey in combination with the results of a stated choice experiment using both a descriptive analysis and a discrete-choice model with binary choice (?accept? or ?not accept? the toll). However, the use of hybrid discrete choice models constitutes an innovative alternative for integrating subjective attitudes and perceptions deriving from the survey of attitudes with the more objective variables from the stated choice experiment. This paper analyzes the results of applying these models to measure the acceptability of interurban road pricing among different groups of stakeholders (road freight and passenger operators, highway concessionaires, and associations of private car users) with qualitatively significant opinions on road pricing measures. Our results show that hybrid models are better suited to explaining the acceptability of a road pricing scheme by different groups of stakeholders than a separate analysis of the survey of attitudes and a discrete-choice model applied on a stated choice experiment. A particular finding was that the strong psycho-social latent variable of the perception of fairness explains the rejection or acceptance of a toll scheme by road stakeholders.

On-line breath analysis of volatile organic compounds as a method for colorectal cancer detection

Background: Analysis of exhaled volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in breath is an emerging approach for cancer diagnosis, but little is known about its potential use as a biomarker for colorectal cancer (CRC). We investigated whether a combination of VOCs could distinct CRC patients from healthy volunteers. Methods: In a pilot study, we prospectively analyzed breath exhalations of 38 CRC patient and 43 healthy controls all scheduled for colonoscopy, older than 50 in the average-risk category. The samples were ionized and analyzed using a Secondary ElectroSpray Ionization (SESI) coupled with a Time-of-Flight Mass Spectrometer (SESI-MS). After a minimum of 2 hours fasting, volunteers deeply exhaled into the system. Each test requires three soft exhalations and takes less than ten minutes. No breath condensate or collection are required and VOCs masses are detected in real time, also allowing for a spirometric profile to be analyzed along with the VOCs. A new sampling system precludes ambient air from entering the system, so background contamination is reduced by an overall factor of ten. Potential confounding variables from the patient or the environment that could interfere with results were analyzed. Results: 255 VOCs, with masses ranging from 30 to 431 Dalton have been identified in the exhaled breath. Using a classification technique based on the ROC curve for each VOC, a set of 9 biomarkers discriminating the presence of CRC from healthy volunteers was obtained, showing an average recognition rate of 81.94%, a sensitivity of 87.04% and specificity of 76.85%. Conclusions: A combination of cualitative and cuantitative analysis of VOCs in the exhaled breath could be a powerful diagnostic tool for average-risk CRC population. These results should be taken with precaution, as many endogenous or exogenous contaminants could interfere as confounding variables. On-line analysis with SESI-MS is less time-consuming and doesn’t need sample preparation. We are recruiting in a new pilot study including breath cleaning procedures and spirometric analysis incorporated into the postprocessing algorithms, to better control for confounding variables.

Regression models with MoPs Bayesian networks

We present a model of Bayesian network for continuous variables, where densities and conditional densities are estimated with B-spline MoPs. We use a novel approach to directly obtain conditional densities estimation using B-spline properties. In particular we implement naive Bayes and wrapper variables selection. Finally we apply our techniques to the problem of predicting neurons morphological variables from electrophysiological ones.

PV power forecast using a nonparametric PV model

Forecasting the AC power output of a PV plant accurately is important both for plant owners and electric system operators. Two main categories of PV modeling are available: the parametric and the nonparametric. In this paper, a methodology using a nonparametric PV model is proposed, using as inputs several forecasts of meteorological variables from a Numerical Weather Forecast model, and actual AC power measurements of PV plants. The methodology was built upon the R environment and uses Quantile Regression Forests as machine learning tool to forecast AC power with a confidence interval. Real data from five PV plants was used to validate the methodology, and results show that daily production is predicted with an absolute cvMBE lower than 1.3%.

Identidad, apropiación, sentido de comunidad y satisfacción residencial: claves de análisis para los estudios urbanos y la planificación. El caso del barrio Embajadores, Madrid

Las rápidas y continuas transformaciones urbanas que experimentan las ciudades actuales han generado importantes cambios en la forma en que se vive, experimenta y percibe la vida en ellas. Estos procesos de transformación, a veces fruto del rápido crecimiento de los entornos urbanos, de su heterogeneidad, de sus dinámicas económicas, de la confrontación de las diferencias sociales de los habitantes o simplemente producto de nuevos usos en los entornos, han propiciado un creciente interés por comprender el efecto que un determinado contexto urbano tiene sobre el individuo y viceversa. O dicho de forma más general, se ha buscado comprender la relación entre el ser humano y el entorno. Así, más recientemente, la atención de muchos estudios se ha posado también en los patrones de uso de los espacios, los cuales van acompañados de una infinidad de cogniciones y valoraciones surgidas en los residentes producto de sus experiencias con el entorno construido. Dentro del desarrollo de estas investigaciones, han surgido una gran variedad de conceptos que han sido identificados por la trascendencia que tienen sobre el vínculo entre el individuo y el contexto, entre los cuales encontramos los conceptos de Identidad, Apropiación de lugar, Sentido de Comunidad y Satisfacción residencial. Este trabajo, tomando como base estos cuatro conceptos, se ha preocupado por comprender la forma en que éstos se relacionan con una serie de variables socio-demográficas, físico-urbanas y cognitivas en la dimensión urbana, con el propósito de valorar el poder de estos constructos —y las variables vinculadas— con los procesos de transformación urbana. La finalidad de la realización de dicho análisis se sustenta en poder identificar como estos factores son tomados en consideración en el urbanismo para así poder reconocer diversas opciones para mediar o incidir sobre estas variables desde las políticas públicas, la planificación urbana o el proyecto urbano. Esto pues, se parte del entendimiento de que la práctica urbanística tiene la opción de interceder sobre una serie de cuestiones que afectan directamente el bienestar y la calidad de vida de las personas, por lo cual su absoluto entendimiento sobre los efectos que fenómenos urbanos como éstos tienen sobre los entornos, es de gran transcendencia para la disciplina. Por tanto, esta investigación ha recopilado y analizado, mediante diferentes herramientas estadísticas, gran cantidad de datos provenientes de una encuesta realizada en un barrio de la ciudad de Madrid, que le han permitido identificar las variables que más peso tienen en los procesos urbanos que desembocan en una mayor Identificación, Apropiación, Sentido de Comunidad y Satisfacción Residencial en el individuo. Esta primera etapa, permitió posteriormente indagar, con ayuda de un panel de expertos urbanistas, sobre las posibilidades de la disciplina para mediar o interceder sobre esos aspectos, lo que nos permitió finalmente alcanzar algunos resultados y conclusiones que permiten valorar las opciones de las diferentes escalas de intervención urbana y los retos de cara al futuro de trabajos sobre esta temática. ABSTRACT The fast and continuous urban transformations that current major cities experience, have generated important changes in the way in which we live, experience and perceive life in them. These transformation processes, sometimes result of rapid growth of urban environments, of their heterogeneity, of their economic dynamics, of the confrontation of social differences amongst its population or just as a product of new ways environments are used, have led to a growing interest in understanding the effect that a given urban context has on the individual and vice versa. In other words, it’s sought to understand the relationship between human beings and the environment. Thus, more recently, the attention of many studies have also focused in the patterns of use of space, which are accompanied by a multitude of cognitions and valuations arising in residents product of their experiences with the built environment. Within the development of those investigations, there have been a great variety of concepts that have been identified due to the importance they have on the relationship between the individual and the context, among which are the concepts of identity, appropriation of place, sense of community and residential satisfaction. This work, based on these four concepts, has been concerned with understanding how they relate to a series of socio-demographic, physical and cognitive variables in an urban dimension, in order to assess the power of these constructs —and related variables— with urban transformation processes. The purpose of that analysis is based on being able to identify how these factors are taken into consideration in planning, in order to recognize different options to mediate or influence on these variables from public policies, urban planning or urban project. This then, is on the understanding that the planning practice has the option to intercede on a number of issues that directly affect the welfare and quality of life of people, so the absolute understanding of the effects of urban phenomena like these have over environments, is of great importance to the discipline. Therefore, this research has collected and analyzed, using different statistical tools, lots of data obtained from a survey performed in a neighborhood of the city of Madrid, which enabled it to identify the variables that have more weight in urban processes that lead in higher identification, appropriation, sense of community and residential satisfaction in the individual. This first step, then allows investigating, with the help of a panel of expert planners, on the possibility of the discipline to mediate or intercede on these aspects, which ultimately enabled us to achieve some results and conclusions that allow evaluating the options of different scales of urban intervention and challenges for the future of work on this subject.

La coordinación motriz en la Adolescencia y su relación con el IMC, hábitos de práctica y motivación en E.F: Estudio transversal y longitudinal

En las últimas décadas, ha aumentado el interés de la investigación sobre el desarrollo de la coordinación motriz en la adolescencia por ser una etapa sensible, crítica y crucial para la adquisición de hábitos y conductas saludables de vida. Estos estudios han mostrado que la adquisición de unos niveles óptimos de coordinación y competencia motriz van a ser determinantes para el bienestar del adolescente y van a estar relacionados e influidos por otras dimensiones del desarrollo de la persona. Recientes investigaciones han sacado a la luz datos alarmantes sobre el aumento de problemas de coordinación motriz en la población infantil y adolescente (Cantell, Smyth y Ahonen, 1994; Gómez, 2004; Ruiz, Graupera, Gutiérrez y Miyahara, 2003; Sudgen y Chambers, 2005) donde abrocharse los botones de una camisa o correr de forma armónica puede ser todo un mundo lleno de dificultades y consecuencias sobre otras dimensiones del desarrollo (Ramón-Otero y Ruiz, 2015). Estos problemas han sido tratados por investigadores como una “dificultad oculta” (Gómez, Ruiz y Mata, 2006), cuya manifestación está presente en las actividades de la vida cotidiana, en contextos deportivos, en juegos y/o en la clase de Educación Física (Ruiz, 2004). La preocupación por estas dificultades se ha extendido a nivel internacional, creando todo un campo de investigación que estudia el diagnóstico de éstos problemas, conocido bajo las siglas DCD (Developmental Coordination Disorder). El presente estudio se centra en la etapa adolescente, periodo de transición entre la etapa infantil y adulta, caracterizada por numerosos cambios biológicos, cognitivos y socioemocionales (Santrock, 2005), que van a determinar la adaptación con el entorno (Gallahue, Ozmun y Goodway, 2011; Gómez, Ruiz, y Mata, 2006). El propósito principal del estudio es analizar el desarrollo de la coordinación motriz en la etapa adolescente investigando las diferencias de género y de edad en relación con variables psicosociales, los hábitos de práctica y las variables antropométricas. El diseño de la investigación se estructura en dos estudios. El primero de ellos, de carácter transversal, analizó una muestra representativa de 1.966 adolescentes de 1º a 4º de la ESO. El segundo, de naturaleza longitudinal, utilizó un grupo de 89 adolescentes del estudio transversal los cuales fueron estudiados durante 4 años, desde los 12 a los 15 años. Los mismos instrumentos fueron utilizados en ambos estudios: el Test Sportcomp para la evaluación de la coordinación motriz, el test AMPET4 para valorar la motivación de logro para el aprendizaje en Educación Física, el inventario HBSC para conocer los hábitos saludables sobre la práctica de actividad física y, por ultimo, se utilizó un estadiómetro para obtener el peso y la altura y así calcular el índice de masa corporal (IMC). La toma de datos del Estudio Transversal se realizó en 2 cursos académicos (2011/12 - 2012/13), en la cual se requirieron 3 sesiones coincidiendo con la clase de Educación Física. En la primera sesión, se evaluó la coordinación motriz. En la segunda se aplicaron los cuestionarios (AMPET4 y HBSC) y, en la última sesión se midió el peso y la altura en un espacio reservado al estadiómetro. El análisis de datos fue descriptivo y diferencial de cada una de las variables estudiadas: motoras, psicosociales, de hábitos de práctica de actividad física y antropométricas. Asimismo, se llevaron a cabo pruebas de análisis univariante y multivariante, calculando el valor-p y las pruebas de efecto. Respecto al Estudio Longitudinal, la toma de datos se llevó cabo durante 4 años desde el 2011 al 2014. La evaluación de la coordinación motriz se realizó en cada uno de los 4 años. Sin embargo, los 2 cuestionarios y las medidas antropométricas fueron evaluadas en el primer y cuarto año. Los análisis de datos fueron descriptivos y comparativos entre las variables analizadas. En el caso de la coordinación motriz, se realizaron las pruebas de medidas repetidas y, en el caso de las demás variables analizadas, se realizaron Prueba T para muestras relacionadas. Los resultados globales mostraron que el índice motor en el Estudio Transversal fue progresivo en el conjunto de chicos. Sin embargo, en las chicas, el rendimiento se estabiliza a partir de los 13 años. En el caso del Estudio Longitudinal, este índice se estabiliza en los 3 primeros años y a la edad de los 14, es cuando comienzan a acusarse las diferencias de género. En el caso de los hombres el rendimiento mejora y, por el contrario, en las mujeres empeora. En el Estudio Transversal, el análisis de varianza mostraron diferencias en función de la edad [F(7, 1958) = 220.70, p < .001; η2 = .101], del género [F(7, 1958) = 29.76, p < .001; η2 = .044], así como en la interacción entre ambos [F(7, 1958)= 11.90, p < .001; η2 = .018]. Únicamente aparecieron diferencias significativas con la edad en todos los grupos de hombres, excepto entre 14 y 15 años. En el Longitudinal, los contrastes multivariados mostraron que no hubo diferencias sgnificativas en el tiempo [F(3,85) = .05, p = .987, η2= .002] mostrando un nivel de coordinación estable a lo largo de los años, aunque existieron diferencias entre chicos y chicas [F(3,85) = 4.64 p = .005] con un tamaño de efecto destacable (η2 = .141). En cuanto a la motivación de logro para prender en Educación Física, en ambos estudios, los chicos fueron los que obtuvieron puntuaciones más elevadas en todas las dimensiones positivas del test (compromiso de aprendizaje, competencia autopercibida y comparada). Sin embargo, en la dimensión negativa del test, la referida a la ansiedad y al agobio ante el fracaso, fueron las chicas las que puntuaron más alto. En el Estudio Transversal, los resultados mostraron diferencias significativas en todas las dimensiones del AMPET4 en función del nivel de coordinación motriz: compromiso con el aprendizaje [F(2, 1644) = 8.66, p < .001; η2 = .010], competencia autopercibida [F(2, 1644) = 50.94, p < .001; η2 = .048], competencia comparada [F(2, 1644) = 41.56, p < .001, η2 = .020] y ansiedad [F(2, 1644) = 16.67, p < .001, η2 = .058]. En este sentido, los grupos de mejor nivel de coordinación motriz, fueron los que mayor puntuación obtuvieron en las dimensiones positivas y los que menor, en la negativa. En el Estudio Longitudinal, también se encontraron diferencias entre el primer y cuarto año de estudio en todas las dimensiones, excepto en competencia motriz autopercibida. Estas diferencias se tradujeron en una disminución en las 3 variables significativas del primer al cuarto año. Respecto al inventario HBSC, en el Estudio Longitudinal, la prueba T mostró únicamente la existencia de diferencias significativas entre el primer y cuarto año en 2 de los 11 ítems: percepción de la forma física (p = .006) y percepción de la salud (p = .047), los cuales disminuyeron en el intervalo de tiempo del estudio. En el Transversal, las diferencias se observaron en función del género (p < .001) y de la edad (p < .001). Asimismo, se mostraron diferencias significativas en todos los ítems respecto al nivel de coordinación motriz, excepto en 2 de ellos: frecuencia tiempo libre con los amigos fuera del colegio (p = .580) y facilidad para hacer amigos en el centro escolar (p = .098). Por último, en las variables antropométricas, los resultados del Estudio Transversal y Longitudinal coinciden tanto en la estatura como en el peso, apuntando, que en ambos estudios, se produce un aumento progresivo tanto en chicos como en chicas a medida que se avanza en edad. Concretamente en el Transversal, estas diferencias en la edad se encuentran en todos los grupos en ambos géneros, excepto en el conjunto de chicas entre los 14 y los 15 años. Asimismo, ambos estudios coincidieron en que tanto las ganancias en cm y kg, como las puntuaciones medias, fueron mayores en los chicos que en las chicas. Respecto al IMC, los 2 estudios coincidieron en que la evolución es paralela, y tal y como apuntan los resultados del Transversal, no se encontraron diferencias ni en la edad (p = 792) ni en el género (p = 284). No obstante, el Longitudinal apuntó únicamente diferencias significativas entre el primer y cuarto año en el conjunto de los hombres [t(41) = -4.01, p < .001]. Finalmente, y en relación con los niveles de coordinación motriz, hubo diferencias significativas en relación con el IMC (p = .012), mostrando como el grupo de peso normal coincide con puntuaciones óptimas de coordinación motriz. A modo de conclusiones, el presente estudio revela cómo la adquisición de un nivel de coordinación óptimo va a ser fundamental para el desarrollo psicosocial, para el desarrollo de hábitos saludables de práctica y para mantener un IMC dentro de la normalidad para el género y la edad. De esta manera, el desarrollo de la coordinación motriz será un aspecto fundamental para lograr un estado de bienestar físico y mental, y unos hábitos favorables para la práctica de actividad física. ABSTRACT In the past couple of decades, adolescence stage in motor coordination gained significant interest in research especially due to its sensitive and critical importance to achieving a healthy life style. These studies observed how to acquire optimum levels of coordination and motor competence, which proved crucial to the quality of the adolescent stage in addition to being influenced by other dimensions of development for each individual. Recent research shed light to an alarming set of data, which showed increased motor coordination problems in children and adolescents (Cantell, Smyth & Ahonen, 1994; Gómez, 2004; Ruiz, Graupera, Gutierrez & Miyahara, 2003; Sugden & Chambers, 2005). For instance, even to the extent that buttoning a shirt or running in a harmonic form can lead to a whole set of consequences and difficulties on the development stage. Researchers have addressed such problems in various studies such as “dificultad oculta” (Gomez, Ruiz & Mata, 2006), which literally translates as “hidden trouble”. The studies are evidently present in the activities of daily life, sporting contexts, games and/or Physical Education (Ruiz, 2004). Concern about these difficulties spread internationally, creating a whole framework research studying the diagnosis of these problems, known under the acronym DCD (Developmental Coordination Disorder). The study focuses on the adolescent stage, transition period between childhood and adulthood characterized by numerous biological, cognitive and socio-emotional changes (Santrock, 2005), which interestingly determines an individual´s adaptation to the environment (Gallahue, Ozmun & Goodway, 2011; Gomez, Ruiz & Mata, 2006). The main purpose of the study is to analyse the development of motor coordination in the adolescent stage investigating gender differences and age in relation to psychological variables, physical activity habits and anthropometric variables. The research design is structured in two studies. The first (transversal nature), analyses a representative sample of 1,966 adolescents from 1st to 4th of Secondary Education School. The second (longitudinal nature) used a group of 89 teenagers from cross-sectional study, which were studied for four years, from 12 to 15 years. The same instruments were used in both studies, namely; “Sportcomp Test” used to evaluate of motor coordination; “AMPET4 Test” which assesses the motivational achievement of learning Physical Education; “HBSC Inventory” to find out the healthy habits gained from physical activities; And finally a “stadiometer” was used to obtain the weight and height and thus calculate the body mass index (BMI). The data collection of the cross-sectional Study was conducted in two academic years (2011/12 - 2012/13), in which 3 sessions coinciding with the Physical Education level are required. In the first session, motor coordination was evaluated; questionnaires were applied in the second session (AMPET4 and HBSC); and in the last session the weight and height were measured in a reserved space for the “stadiometer”. Notably, data analysis was descriptive and differential in each of the variable studies: motor, psychological, practical and anthropometric habits of physical activity. Thus the tests were conducted in a univariate and multivariate analysis, calculating the p-value and effect tests. Regarding the Longitudinal Study, data collection was carried out during four years from 2011 to 2014 inclusively. The assessment of motor coordination was performed on each of the four years, however, the 2 questionnaires and anthropometric measures were evaluated in the first and fourth year. Data analyses were also descriptive and comparative among the variables that were put to the test. In the case of motor coordination tests, they were done on repeated measures, whilst, in the case of other variables analysed, they were accomplished through T Tests under comparable samples. The overall results showed that the engine Motor Index in Study 1 was progressive in all male gender studies, however in the females the performance remained constant after reaching 13 years of age. For the Longitudinal Study, this index is stabilized in the first 3 years and at the age of 14 is when the gender differences take place. In the case of males, the performance improves, however, in females worsens. The cross-sectional Study, analysis of variance showed differences in terms of age [F(7, 1958) = 220.70, p < .001; η2 = .101], gender [F(7, 1958) = 29.76, p <.001; η2 = .044], as well as their interaction [F(7, 1958) = 11.90, p <.001; η2 = .018]. They only show significant differences in respect to age in the male set sample, in all groups except between 14 and 15 years old. In the Longitudinal, the multivariate contrasts showed no significant differences in time [F(3,85) = 0.05, p = 0.987, η2 = 0.002] showing a stable level of coordination over the years, but if there were differences between both genders [F(3,85) = 4.64, p = .005] it took place with a noteworthy effect size (η2 = .141). In regards, to the Motivational Achievement for learning Physical Education, in both studies the male sample administered obtained higher scores on all the positive dimensions of the test (commitment to learning, self-assessed competence, and comparable competence). However, on the negative assessment side, namely, anxiety and fear of failure, the female sample scored higher than the male one. In Study 1, the multivariate analysis showed significant differences between the psychosocial dimensions and levels of motor coordination with moderate to significant effect [Lambada de Wilks = .931, F(8, 3282) = 14.99; p = <0.001; η2 = .035]. By the same token, the groups with the best level of motor coordination were the highest scoring ones in the positive dimensions, whilst the lower performing ones, performed better in the negative dimension. In the longitudinal study, there is also differences were also found between the first and fourth years of study in all dimensions, except in self-perceived motor competition. These differences resulted in a significant decrease in the 3 variables from first to fourth year. Regarding, the “HBSC Inventory”, the T test in the longitudinal study showed uniquely the existence of significant differences between the first and fourth year in 2 of the 11 items: perception of physical fitness (p = .006) and perceived health (p = 047), which diminished in the interval time of the study. In the Cross-sectional study, the se differences were also observed in gender (p < .001) and age (p < .001). Similarly, they showed significant differences in all items in respect to the motor coordination level, except in 2 of them; frequency of free time with friends outside of school (p = .580) and the ease to make friends at the educational centre (p = 098). And last but not least, the anthropometric variables, both the results of the Transversal and Longitudinal Study matched both height and weight, pointing out that in both studies a gradual increase in both genders, as they grow older. Notably in the Cross-sectional, these differences in age are found in all groups in both genders, except for the set of girls between 14 and 15 years. Thus both studies concluded that both gains in cm and kg and the mean scores were higher amongst males compared to females. Regarding BMI, the 2 studies concluded that the evolution is parallel, and as pointed cross-sectional study there isn’t differences found in age (p = 792) or in gender (p = 284). However, the Longitudinal study uniquely shows significant difference between the first and fourth year for male set sample [t (41) = -4.01, p < .001]. Finally, in relation to levels of motor coordination, there were significant differences in relation to BMI (p = .012), showing how the “normal weight group” matches the optimal scores of motor coordination. In conclusion, this study reveals how the acquisition of an optimal level of coordination is vital for psychological development, to develop and practice healthy habits, and to maintain a BMI within the normal range for age and gender. Therefore, the development of motor coordination is fundamental to achieving a state of physical and mental wellbeing, and preferable habits to pursuing physical activity.

Cartography of uncertainty of predicted forest variables estimated from ALS data

cartografía de incertidumbres

Improving runoff estimates from regional climate models: a performance analysis in Spain

An important step to assess water availability is to have monthly time series representative of the current situation. In this context, a simple methodology is presented for application in large-scale studies in regions where a properly calibrated hydrologic model is not available, using the output variables simulated by regional climate models (RCMs) of the European project PRUDENCE under current climate conditions (period 1961–1990). The methodology compares different interpolation methods and alternatives to generate annual times series that minimise the bias with respect to observed values. The objective is to identify the best alternative to obtain bias-corrected, monthly runoff time series from the output of RCM simulations. This study uses information from 338 basins in Spain that cover the entire mainland territory and whose observed values of natural runoff have been estimated by the distributed hydrological model SIMPA. Four interpolation methods for downscaling runoff to the basin scale from 10 RCMs are compared with emphasis on the ability of each method to reproduce the observed behaviour of this variable. The alternatives consider the use of the direct runoff of the RCMs and the mean annual runoff calculated using five functional forms of the aridity index, defined as the ratio between potential evapotranspiration and precipitation. In addition, the comparison with respect to the global runoff reference of the UNH/GRDC dataset is evaluated, as a contrast of the “best estimator” of current runoff on a large scale. Results show that the bias is minimised using the direct original interpolation method and the best alternative for bias correction of the monthly direct runoff time series of RCMs is the UNH/GRDC dataset, although the formula proposed by Schreiber (1904) also gives good results

Identifying Moderator Variables Through Requirements Elicitation Experiments Limitations

Interviews are the most widely used elicitation technique in Requirements Engineering (RE). Despite its importance, research in interviews is quite limited, in particular from an experimental perspective. We have performed a series of experiments exploring the relative effectiveness of structured and unstructured interviews. This line of research has been active in Information Systems in the past years, so that our experiments can be aggregated together with existing ones to obtain guidelines for practice. Experimental aggregation is a demanding task. It requires not only a large number of experiments, but also considering the influence of the existing moderators. However, in the current state of the practice in RE, those moderators are unknown. We believe that analyzing the threats to validity in interviewing experiments may give insight about how to improve further replications and the corresponding aggregations. It is likely that this strategy may be applied in other Software Engineering areas as well.

Lesson from the habitat suitability models to evaluate the environmental of Pinus nigra Arnold and Pinus sylvesris L. in the Iberian Peninsula

PREDICT POTENTIAL DISTRIBUTION. Spatial and temporal evolution of the species under different climate scenarios. Generation of habitat suitability models (HSM)  high degree of uncertainty and limitations. The importance of their validation has been stressed. In this work we discuss the present potential distribution of P. sylvestris and P. nigra in the Iberian Peninsula by using MaxEnt, and evaluate the influence of the different environmental variables. Our intention is to select a set of environmental variables that explains better their current distribution, to achieve the most accurate and reliable models. Then we project them to the past climatic conditions (21 to 0 kyrs BP), to evaluate the outputs with existing palaeo-ecological data.

Refining predictions of iberian plant distribution: lessons from p. nigra and p. sylvestris palaeoecological-based habitat suitability models

In recent years, challenged by the climate scenarios put forward by the IPCC and its potential impact on plant distribution, numerous predictive techniques -including the so called habitat suitability models (HSM)- have been developed. Yet, as the output of the different methods produces different distribution areas, developing validation tools are strong needs to reduce uncertainties. Focused in the Iberian Peninsula, we propose a palaeo-based method to increase the robustness of the HSM, by developing an ecological approach to understand the mismatches between the palaeoecological information and the projections of the HSMs. Here, we present the result of (1) investigating causal relationships between environmental variables and presence of Pinus sylvestris L. and P. nigra Arn. available from the 3rd Spanish Forest Inventory, (2) developing present and past presence-predictions through the MaxEnt model for 6 and 21 kyr BP, and (3) assessing these models through comparisons with biomized palaeoecological data available from the European Pollen Database for the Iberian Peninsula.

Trends in climatic variables and future reference evapotranspiration in Duero Valley (Spain)

The impact of climate change and its relation with evapotranspiration was evaluated in the Duero River Basin (Spain). The study shows possible future situations 50 yr from now from the reference evapotranspiration (ETo). The maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), dew point (Td), wind speed (U) and net radiation (Rn) trends during the 1980–2009 period were obtained and extrapolated with the FAO-56 Penman-Montheith equation to estimate ETo. Changes in stomatal resistance in response to increases in CO2 were also considered. Four scenarios were done, taking the concentration of CO2 and the period analyzed (annual or monthly) into consideration. The scenarios studied showed the changes in ETo as a consequence of the annual and monthly trends in the variables Tmax, Tmin, Td, U and Rn with current and future CO2 concentrations (372 ppm and 550 ppm). The future ETo showed increases between 118 mm (11 %) and 55 mm (5 %) with respect to the current situation of the river basin at 1042 mm. The months most affected by climate change are May, June, July, August and September, which also coincide with the maximum water needs of the basin’s crops

Parallelizing irregular and pointer-based computations automatically: perspectives from logic and constraint programming

Irregular computations pose sorne of the most interesting and challenging problems in automatic parallelization. Irregularity appears in certain kinds of numerical problems and is pervasive in symbolic applications. Such computations often use dynamic data structures, which make heavy use of pointers. This complicates all the steps of a parallelizing compiler, from independence detection to task partitioning and placement. Starting in the mid 80s there has been significant progress in the development of parallelizing compilers for logic pro­gramming (and more recently, constraint programming) resulting in quite capable paralle­lizers. The typical applications of these paradigms frequently involve irregular computations, and make heavy use of dynamic data structures with pointers, since logical variables represent in practice a well-behaved form of pointers. This arguably makes the techniques used in these compilers potentially interesting. In this paper, we introduce in a tutoríal way, sorne of the problems faced by parallelizing compilers for logic and constraint programs and provide pointers to sorne of the significant progress made in the area. In particular, this work has resulted in a series of achievements in the areas of inter-procedural pointer aliasing analysis for independence detection, cost models and cost analysis, cactus-stack memory management, techniques for managing speculative and irregular computations through task granularity control and dynamic task allocation such as work-stealing schedulers), etc.

Comparison of methods for downscaling runoff from regional climate models in Spanish basins

At present there is much literature that refers to the advantages and disadvantages of different methods of statistical and dynamical downscaling of climate variables projected by climate models. Less attention has been paid to other indirect variables, like runoff, which play a significant role in evaluating the impact of climate change on hydrological systems. Runoff presents a much greater bias in climate models than other climate variables, like temperature or precipitation. It is very important to identify the methods that minimize bias while downscaling runoff from the gridded results of climate models to the basin scale

Effect of bird age and storage system on physical properties of eggs from brown laying hens

A total of 108 eggs from a group of 100 brown laying hens housed in standard cages were analyzed. Thirty-six eggs were retired when the hens had 30 week of age, other 36 eggs were retired when the hens had 35 week of age and the remaining 36 eggs were retired five weeks afterwards. Each group of 36 eggs was radomly divided in three groups of 12 eggs. First group was analyzed at once, second group one was kept during one week in the refrigerator (5°C) and third group was kept also one week but on ambient temperature (25°C). Shell color, shell thickness, specific gravity, albumen height and Haugh units wre obtained. The bird age had significant effect on shell color and shell thickness, but the storage system had not influence on such variables. The hen age had not effect on specific gravity, but the storage system affected to this variable. Hen age and storage system had significant influence (P<0.05) on albumen height and Haugh units, and the interaction age × storage system was significant for these variables. The specific gravity had positive relations with shell thickness, yolk color, albumen height and Haugh units. It is concluded that bird age and storage system under high temperatures reduced the egg quality.