Hybrid wind-diesel power plant valuation and optimization using real option theory and dynamic programming

El sistema de energía eólica-diesel híbrido tiene un gran potencial en la prestación de suministro de energía a comunidades remotas. En comparación con los sistemas tradicionales de diesel, las plantas de energía híbridas ofrecen grandes ventajas tales como el suministro de capacidad de energía extra para "microgrids", reducción de los contaminantes y emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero, y la cobertura del riesgo de aumento inesperado del precio del combustible. El principal objetivo de la presente tesis es proporcionar nuevos conocimientos para la evaluación y optimización de los sistemas de energía híbrido eólico-diesel considerando las incertidumbres. Dado que la energía eólica es una variable estocástica, ésta no puede ser controlada ni predecirse con exactitud. La naturaleza incierta del viento como fuente de energía produce serios problemas tanto para la operación como para la evaluación del valor del sistema de energía eólica-diesel híbrido. Por un lado, la regulación de la potencia inyectada desde las turbinas de viento es una difícil tarea cuando opera el sistema híbrido. Por otro lado, el bene.cio económico de un sistema eólico-diesel híbrido se logra directamente a través de la energía entregada a la red de alimentación de la energía eólica. Consecuentemente, la incertidumbre de los recursos eólicos incrementa la dificultad de estimar los beneficios globales en la etapa de planificación. La principal preocupación del modelo tradicional determinista es no tener en cuenta la incertidumbre futura a la hora de tomar la decisión de operación. Con lo cual, no se prevé las acciones operativas flexibles en respuesta a los escenarios futuros. El análisis del rendimiento y simulación por ordenador en el Proyecto Eólico San Cristóbal demuestra que la incertidumbre sobre la energía eólica, las estrategias de control, almacenamiento de energía, y la curva de potencia de aerogeneradores tienen un impacto significativo sobre el rendimiento del sistema. En la presente tesis, se analiza la relación entre la teoría de valoración de opciones y el proceso de toma de decisiones. La opción real se desarrolla con un modelo y se presenta a través de ejemplos prácticos para evaluar el valor de los sistemas de energía eólica-diesel híbridos. Los resultados muestran que las opciones operacionales pueden aportar un valor adicional para el sistema de energía híbrida, cuando esta flexibilidad operativa se utiliza correctamente. Este marco se puede aplicar en la optimización de la operación a corto plazo teniendo en cuenta la naturaleza dependiente de la trayectoria de la política óptima de despacho, dadas las plausibles futuras realizaciones de la producción de energía eólica. En comparación con los métodos de valoración y optimización existentes, el resultado del caso de estudio numérico muestra que la política de operación resultante del modelo de optimización propuesto presenta una notable actuación en la reducción del con- sumo total de combustible del sistema eólico-diesel. Con el .n de tomar decisiones óptimas, los operadores de plantas de energía y los gestores de éstas no deben centrarse sólo en el resultado directo de cada acción operativa, tampoco deberían tomar decisiones deterministas. La forma correcta es gestionar dinámicamente el sistema de energía teniendo en cuenta el valor futuro condicionado en cada opción frente a la incertidumbre. ABSTRACT Hybrid wind-diesel power systems have a great potential in providing energy supply to remote communities. Compared with the traditional diesel systems, hybrid power plants are providing many advantages such as providing extra energy capacity to the micro-grid, reducing pollution and greenhouse-gas emissions, and hedging the risk of unexpected fuel price increases. This dissertation aims at providing novel insights for assessing and optimizing hybrid wind-diesel power systems considering the related uncertainties. Since wind power can neither be controlled nor accurately predicted, the energy harvested from a wind turbine may be considered a stochastic variable. This uncertain nature of wind energy source results in serious problems for both the operation and value assessment of the hybrid wind-diesel power system. On the one hand, regulating the uncertain power injected from wind turbines is a difficult task when operating the hybrid system. On the other hand, the economic profit of a hybrid wind-diesel system is achieved directly through the energy delivered to the power grid from the wind energy. Therefore, the uncertainty of wind resources has increased the difficulty in estimating the total benefits in the planning stage. The main concern of the traditional deterministic model is that it does not consider the future uncertainty when making the dispatch decision. Thus, it does not provide flexible operational actions in response to the uncertain future scenarios. Performance analysis and computer simulation on the San Cristobal Wind Project demonstrate that the wind power uncertainty, control strategies, energy storage, and the wind turbine power curve have a significant impact on the performance of the system. In this dissertation, the relationship between option pricing theory and decision making process is discussed. A real option model is developed and presented through practical examples for assessing the value of hybrid wind-diesel power systems. Results show that operational options can provide additional value to the hybrid power system when this operational flexibility is correctly utilized. This framework can be applied in optimizing short term dispatch decisions considering the path-dependent nature of the optimal dispatch policy, given the plausible future realizations of the wind power production. Comparing with the existing valuation and optimization methods, result from numerical example shows that the dispatch policy resulting from the proposed optimization model exhibits a remarkable performance in minimizing the total fuel consumption of the wind-diesel system. In order to make optimal decisions, power plant operators and managers should not just focus on the direct outcome of each operational action; neither should they make deterministic decisions. The correct way is to dynamically manage the power system by taking into consideration the conditional future value in each option in response to the uncertainty.

Contribution to the Analysis, Design and Assessment of Compact Antenna Test Ranges At Millimeter Wavelengths - Contribución al Análisis, Diseño y Caracterización de Sistemas de Medida de Antenas en Rango Compacto para Frecuencias Milimétricas

This Doctoral Thesis entitled Contribution to the analysis, design and assessment of compact antenna test ranges at millimeter wavelengths aims to deepen the knowledge of a particular antenna measurement system: the compact range, operating in the frequency bands of millimeter wavelengths. The thesis has been developed at Radiation Group (GR), an antenna laboratory which belongs to the Signals, Systems and Radiocommunications department (SSR), from Technical University of Madrid (UPM). The Radiation Group owns an extensive experience on antenna measurements, running at present four facilities which operate in different configurations: Gregorian compact antenna test range, spherical near field, planar near field and semianechoic arch system. The research work performed in line with this thesis contributes the knowledge of the first measurement configuration at higher frequencies, beyond the microwaves region where Radiation Group features customer-level performance. To reach this high level purpose, a set of scientific tasks were sequentially carried out. Those are succinctly described in the subsequent paragraphs. A first step dealed with the State of Art review. The study of scientific literature dealed with the analysis of measurement practices in compact antenna test ranges in addition with the particularities of millimeter wavelength technologies. Joint study of both fields of knowledge converged, when this measurement facilities are of interest, in a series of technological challenges which become serious bottlenecks at different stages: analysis, design and assessment. Thirdly after the overview study, focus was set on Electromagnetic analysis algorithms. These formulations allow to approach certain electromagnetic features of interest, such as field distribution phase or stray signal analysis of particular structures when they interact with electromagnetic waves sources. Properly operated, a CATR facility features electromagnetic waves collimation optics which are large, in terms of wavelengths. Accordingly, the electromagnetic analysis tasks introduce an extense number of mathematic unknowns which grow with frequency, following different polynomic order laws depending on the used algorithmia. In particular, the optics configuration which was of our interest consisted on the reflection type serrated edge collimator. The analysis of these devices requires a flexible handling of almost arbitrary scattering geometries, becoming this flexibility the nucleus of the algorithmia’s ability to perform the subsequent design tasks. This thesis’ contribution to this field of knowledge consisted on reaching a formulation which was powerful at the same time when dealing with various analysis geometries and computationally speaking. Two algorithmia were developed. While based on the same principle of hybridization, they reached different order Physics performance at the cost of the computational efficiency. Inter-comparison of their CATR design capabilities was performed, reaching both qualitative as well as quantitative conclusions on their scope. In third place, interest was shifted from analysis - design tasks towards range assessment. Millimetre wavelengths imply strict mechanical tolerances and fine setup adjustment. In addition, the large number of unknowns issue already faced in the analysis stage appears as well in the on chamber field probing stage. Natural decrease of dynamic range available by semiconductor millimeter waves sources requires in addition larger integration times at each probing point. These peculiarities increase exponentially the difficulty of performing assessment processes in CATR facilities beyond microwaves. The bottleneck becomes so tight that it compromises the range characterization beyond a certain limit frequency which typically lies on the lowest segment of millimeter wavelength frequencies. However the value of range assessment moves, on the contrary, towards the highest segment. This thesis contributes this technological scenario developing quiet zone probing techniques which achieves substantial data reduction ratii. Collaterally, it increases the robustness of the results to noise, which is a virtual rise of the setup’s available dynamic range. In fourth place, the environmental sensitivity of millimeter wavelengths issue was approached. It is well known the drifts of electromagnetic experiments due to the dependance of the re sults with respect to the surrounding environment. This feature relegates many industrial practices of microwave frequencies to the experimental stage, at millimeter wavelengths. In particular, evolution of the atmosphere within acceptable conditioning bounds redounds in drift phenomena which completely mask the experimental results. The contribution of this thesis on this aspect consists on modeling electrically the indoor atmosphere existing in a CATR, as a function of environmental variables which affect the range’s performance. A simple model was developed, being able to handle high level phenomena, such as feed - probe phase drift as a function of low level magnitudes easy to be sampled: relative humidity and temperature. With this model, environmental compensation can be performed and chamber conditioning is automatically extended towards higher frequencies. Therefore, the purpose of this thesis is to go further into the knowledge of millimetre wavelengths involving compact antenna test ranges. This knowledge is dosified through the sequential stages of a CATR conception, form early low level electromagnetic analysis towards the assessment of an operative facility, stages for each one of which nowadays bottleneck phenomena exist and seriously compromise the antenna measurement practices at millimeter wavelengths.

Assessment of oral bioaccessibility of arsenic in playground soil in Madrid (Spain): A three-method comparison and implications for risk assessment

Three methodologies to assess As bioaccessibility were evaluated using playgroundsoil collected from 16 playgrounds in Madrid, Spain: two (Simplified Bioaccessibility Extraction Test: SBET, and hydrochloric acid-extraction: HCl) assess gastric-only bioaccessibility and the third (Physiologically Based Extraction Test: PBET) evaluates mouth–gastric–intestinal bioaccessibility. Aqua regia-extractable (pseudo total) As contents, which are routinely employed in riskassessments, were used as the reference to establish the following percentages of bioaccessibility: SBET – 63.1; HCl – 51.8; PBET – 41.6, the highest values associated with the gastric-only extractions. For Madridplaygroundsoils – characterised by a very uniform, weakly alkaline pH, and low Fe oxide and organic matter contents – the statistical analysis of the results indicates that, in contrast with other studies, the highest percentage of As in the samples was bound to carbonates and/or present as calcium arsenate. As opposed to the As bound to Fe oxides, this As is readily released in the gastric environment as the carbonate matrix is decomposed and calcium arsenate is dissolved, but some of it is subsequently sequestered in unavailable forms as the pH is raised to 5.5 to mimic intestinal conditions. The HCl extraction can be used as a simple and reliable (i.e. low residual standard error) proxy for the more expensive, time consuming, and error-prone PBET methodology. The HCl method would essentially halve the estimate of carcinogenic risk for children playing in Madridplaygroundsoils, providing a more representative value of associated risk than the pseudo-total concentrations used at present

Pounding force assessment in performance-based design of bridges

Bridges with deck supported on either sliding or elastomeric bearings are very common in mid-seismicity regions. Their main seismic vulnerabilities are related to the pounding of the deck against abutments or between the different deck elements. A simplified model of the longitudinal behavior of those bridges will allow to characterize the reaction forces developed during pounding using the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center framework formula. In order to ensure the general applicability of the results obtained, a large number of system parameter combinations will be considered. The heart of the formula is the identification of suitable intermediate variables. First, the pseudo acceleration spectral value for the fundamental period of the system (Sa(Ts)) will be used as an intensity measure (IM). This IM will result in a very large non-explained variability of the engineering demand parameter. A portion of this variability will be proved to be related to the relative content of high-frequency energy in the input motion. Two vector-valued IMs including a second parameter taking this energy content into account will then be considered. For both of them, a suitable form for the conditional intensity dependence of the response will be obtained. The question of which one to choose will also be analyzed. Finally, additional issues related to the IM will be studied: its applicability to pulse-type records, the validity of scaling records and the sufficiency of the IM.

Counting Highly Cited Papers for University Research Assessment: Conceptual and Technical Issues

A Kuhnian approach to research assessment requires us to consider that the important scientific breakthroughs that drive scientific progress are infrequent and that the progress of science does not depend on normal research. Consequently, indicators of research performance based on the total number of papers do not accurately measure scientific progress. Similarly, those universities with the best reputations in terms of scientific progress differ widely from other universities in terms of the scale of investments made in research and in the higher concentrations of outstanding scientists present, but less so in terms of the total number of papers or citations. This study argues that indicators for the 1% high-citation tail of the citation distribution reveal the contribution of universities to the progress of science and provide quantifiable justification for the large investments in research made by elite research universities. In this tail, which follows a power low, the number of the less frequent and highly cited important breakthroughs can be predicted from the frequencies of papers in the upper part of the tail. This study quantifies the false impression of excellence produced by multinational papers, and by other types of papers that do not contribute to the progress of science. Many of these papers are concentrated in and dominate lists of highly cited papers, especially in lower-ranked universities. The h-index obscures the differences between higher- and lower-ranked universities because the proportion of h-core papers in the 1% high-citation tail is not proportional to the value of the h-index.

Assessing the landscape value of public works: validation of the method in the lowlands of the middle section of the Tajo river (Spain)

This paper proposes a method of landscape characterisation and assessment of public works associated with fluvial landscapes, which is validated in the middle section of the Tajo River. In this method, a set of criteria is identified that unifies various characteristics of the landscape associated to the infrastructures. A specific weight is then assigned to each criterion in such a way as to produce a semi-quantitative value ranging from a minimum value of 0 to a maximum value of 10. Taken together, these criteria enable us to describe and assess the value of the public works selected for study, in this case helping us to evaluate the sections of the River Tajo analysed in our study area. Accordingly, the value of all the infrastructures associated to a stretch of the river covering several hundred kilometres was determined and after dividing this stretch into sections, they were compared under equivalent conditions to provide a hierarchal ranking.

Competence assessment of final year projects for undergraduate telecommunication students

The value of project-based learning has lead to the inclusion of project development activities in engineering courses, being the Final Year Project (FYP) the most remarkable one. Several approaches have been proposed for assessing and grading FYPs but, among them, rubrics are becoming a standard for such type of assessment. However, due to the different characteristics and orientations of the projects (some are more practically oriented, some more theoretically), and the high amount of different competences to be evaluated (knowledge, working capability, communication skills, etc.), the definition of one unique rubric suitable for the evaluation of all FYPs presented in different degree programs, is a big challenge. In a former work, the educational outcomes expected from the FYP were defined and resulted in a proposal for their assessment. Afterwards, the proposal has been tested during one year within an educational innovation-project at the Universidad Politécnica de Madrid which involved the follow-up of 8 undergraduate telecommunication students elaborating their FYPs. In this publication, our experience will be described, based on the emerging work taking place through the formalisation of the process which consisted in the following steps: i) establishment of a schedule for the whole process (publication of FYPs topics, selection of applying students and their enrolment, assignation of a jury to each FYP, elaboration and follow-up of FYPs, final report submission, oral presentation, etc.); ii) design of rubrics for each of three assessment parts: working process, final report and oral presentation; and iii) follow-up and evaluation of the involved FYPs. Finally, problems that appeared during this experience (e.g. administrative aspects, criticisms and suggestions from the students, tutors and juries involved) are discussed and some modifications in the assessment system will be proposed in order to solve or minimize these problems.

Mealiness assessment in fruits using MRI techniques.

Mealiness is a sensory attribute that cannot be defined by a single parameter but through a combination of variables (multidimensional structure). Previous studies propose the definition of mealiness as the lack of crispiness, of hardness and of juiciness. Current aims are focused on establishing non destructive tests for mealiness assessment. MultiSliceMultiEcho Magnetic resonance images (MRI, 64*64pixels) have been taken corresponding to a 3ms of Echo time. Small samples of Top Red apples stored 6 months at controlled atmosphere (expected to be non mealy) and 2°C (expected to be mealy) have been used for MRI imaging. Three out of four apples corresponding to the sample maintained at controlled atmosphere did not develop mealiness while three out of four fruits corresponding to the sample stored at 2°C became mealy after 6 month of storage. The minimum T2 values/image obtained for the mealy apples shows to be significantly lower when compared with non mealy apples pointing that a more dis-aggregated structure leads to a quicker loss of signal Also, there is a significant linear correlation (r=-0.76) between the number of pixels with a T2 value below 35ms within a fruit image and the deformation parameter registered during the Magness-Taylor firmness test. Finally, all the T2 images of the mealy apples show a regional variation of contrast which is not shown for non mealy apples. This variation of contrast is similar to the MRI images of water-cored apples indicating that in these cases there is a differential water movement that may precede the internal browning.

Assessing urban mobility through participatory scenario building and combined utility-regret assessment

La planificación de la movilidad sostenible urbana es una tarea compleja que implica un alto grado de incertidumbre debido al horizonte de planificación a largo plazo, la amplia gama de paquetes de políticas posibles, la necesidad de una aplicación efectiva y eficiente, la gran escala geográfica, la necesidad de considerar objetivos económicos, sociales y ambientales, y la respuesta del viajero a los diferentes cursos de acción y su aceptabilidad política (Shiftan et al., 2003). Además, con las tendencias inevitables en motorización y urbanización, la demanda de terrenos y recursos de movilidad en las ciudades está aumentando dramáticamente. Como consecuencia de ello, los problemas de congestión de tráfico, deterioro ambiental, contaminación del aire, consumo de energía, desigualdades en la comunidad, etc. se hacen más y más críticos para la sociedad. Esta situación no es estable a largo plazo. Para enfrentarse a estos desafíos y conseguir un desarrollo sostenible, es necesario considerar una estrategia de planificación urbana a largo plazo, que aborde las necesarias implicaciones potencialmente importantes. Esta tesis contribuye a las herramientas de evaluación a largo plazo de la movilidad urbana estableciendo una metodología innovadora para el análisis y optimización de dos tipos de medidas de gestión de la demanda del transporte (TDM). La metodología nueva realizado se basa en la flexibilización de la toma de decisiones basadas en utilidad, integrando diversos mecanismos de decisión contrariedad‐anticipada y combinados utilidad‐contrariedad en un marco integral de planificación del transporte. La metodología propuesta incluye dos aspectos principales: 1) La construcción de escenarios con una o varias medidas TDM usando el método de encuesta que incorpora la teoría “regret”. La construcción de escenarios para este trabajo se hace para considerar específicamente la implementación de cada medida TDM en el marco temporal y marco espacial. Al final, se construyen 13 escenarios TDM en términos del más deseable, el más posible y el de menor grado de “regret” como resultado de una encuesta en dos rondas a expertos en el tema. 2) A continuación se procede al desarrollo de un marco de evaluación estratégica, basado en un Análisis Multicriterio de Toma de Decisiones (Multicriteria Decision Analysis, MCDA) y en un modelo “regret”. Este marco de evaluación se utiliza para comparar la contribución de los distintos escenarios TDM a la movilidad sostenible y para determinar el mejor escenario utilizando no sólo el valor objetivo de utilidad objetivo obtenido en el análisis orientado a utilidad MCDA, sino también el valor de “regret” que se calcula por medio del modelo “regret” MCDA. La función objetivo del MCDA se integra en un modelo de interacción de uso del suelo y transporte que se usa para optimizar y evaluar los impactos a largo plazo de los escenarios TDM previamente construidos. Un modelo de “regret”, llamado “referencedependent regret model (RDRM)” (modelo de contrariedad dependiente de referencias), se ha adaptado para analizar la contribución de cada escenario TDM desde un punto de vista subjetivo. La validación de la metodología se realiza mediante su aplicación a un caso de estudio en la provincia de Madrid. La metodología propuesta define pues un procedimiento técnico detallado para la evaluación de los impactos estratégicos de la aplicación de medidas de gestión de la demanda en el transporte, que se considera que constituye una herramienta de planificación útil, transparente y flexible, tanto para los planificadores como para los responsables de la gestión del transporte. Planning sustainable urban mobility is a complex task involving a high degree of uncertainty due to the long‐term planning horizon, the wide spectrum of potential policy packages, the need for effective and efficient implementation, the large geographical scale, the necessity to consider economic, social, and environmental goals, and the traveller’s response to the various action courses and their political acceptability (Shiftan et al., 2003). Moreover, with the inevitable trends on motorisation and urbanisation, the demand for land and mobility in cities is growing dramatically. Consequently, the problems of traffic congestion, environmental deterioration, air pollution, energy consumption, and community inequity etc., are becoming more and more critical for the society (EU, 2011). Certainly, this course is not sustainable in the long term. To address this challenge and achieve sustainable development, a long‐term perspective strategic urban plan, with its potentially important implications, should be established. This thesis contributes on assessing long‐term urban mobility by establishing an innovative methodology for optimizing and evaluating two types of transport demand management measures (TDM). The new methodology aims at relaxing the utility‐based decision‐making assumption by embedding anticipated‐regret and combined utilityregret decision mechanisms in an integrated transport planning framework. The proposed methodology includes two major aspects: 1) Construction of policy scenarios within a single measure or combined TDM policy‐packages using the survey method incorporating the regret theory. The purpose of building the TDM scenarios in this work is to address the specific implementation in terms of time frame and geographic scale for each TDM measure. Finally, 13 TDM scenarios are built in terms of the most desirable, the most expected and the least regret choice by means of the two‐round Delphi based survey. 2) Development of the combined utility‐regret analysis framework based on multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA). This assessment framework is used to compare the contribution of the TDM scenario towards sustainable mobility and to determine the best scenario considering not only the objective utility value obtained from the utilitybased MCDA, but also a regret value that is calculated via a regret‐based MCDA. The objective function of the utility‐based MCDA is integrated in a land use and transport interaction model and is used for optimizing and assessing the long term impacts of the constructed TDM scenarios. A regret based model, called referente dependent regret model (RDRM) is adapted to analyse the contribution of each TDM scenario in terms of a subjective point of view. The suggested methodology is implemented and validated in the case of Madrid. It defines a comprehensive technical procedure for assessing strategic effects of transport demand management measures, which can be useful, transparent and flexible planning tool both for planners and decision‐makers.

Gasification technology assessment of sterile coal to clean electrical power generation.

Sterile coal is a low-value residue associated to the coal extraction and mining activity. According to the type and origin of the coal bed configuration, sterile coal production can mainly vary on quantity, calorific value and presence of sulphur compounds. In addition, the potential availability of sterile coal within Spain is apparently high and its contribution to the local power generation would be of interest playing a significant role. The proposed study evaluates the availability and deployment of gasification technologies to drive clean electricity generation from waste coal and sterile rock coal, incorporating greenhouse gas emission mitigation systems, like CO2, H2S and NOx removal systems. It establishes the target facility and its conceptual basic design proposal. The syngas obtained after the gasification of sterile coal is processed through specific conditioning units before entering into the combustion chamber of a gas turbine. Flue gas leaving the gas turbine is ducted to a heat recovery steam generation boiler; the steam produced within the boilerdrives a steam turbine. The target facility resembles a singular Integrated Gasification in Combined Cycle (IGCC) power station. The evaluation of the conceptual basic design according to the power output set for a maximum sterile contribution, established that rates over 95% H2S and 90% CO2 removal can be achieved. Noticeable decrease of NOx compounds can be also achieved by the use of commercial technology. A techno-economic approach of the conceptual basic design is made evaluating the integration of potential unitsand their implementation within the target facility aiming toachieve clean power generation. The criterion to be compliant with the most restrictive regulation regarding environmental emissions is setting to carry out this analysis.

A water footprint assessment of a pair of jeans: the influence of agricultural policies on the sustainability of consumer products.

This study reports the results of a water footprint (WF) assessment of five types of textiles commonly used for the production of jeans, including two different fibres (cotton and Lyocell fibre) and five corresponding production methods for spinning, dyeing and weaving. The results show that the fibre production is the stage with the highest water consumption, being cotton production particularly relevant. Therefore, the study pays particular attention to the water footprint of cotton production and analyses the effects of external factors influencing the water footprint of a product, in this case, the incentives provided by the EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), and the relevance of agricultural practices to the water footprint of a product is emphasised. An extensification of the crop production led to higher WF per unit, but a lower overall pressure on the basins water resources. This study performs a sustainability assessment of the estimated cotton WFs with the water scarcity index, as proposed by Hoekstra et al. (2011), and shows their variations in different years as a result of different water consumption by crops in the rest of the river basin. In our case, we applied the assessment to the Guadalquivir, Guadalete and Barbate river basins, three semi-arid rivers in South Spain. Because they are found to be relevant, the available water stored in dams and the outflow are also incorporated as reference points for the sustainability assessment. The study concludes that, in the case of Spanish cotton production, the situation of the basin and the policy impact are more relevant for the status of the basin s water resources than the actual WF of cotton production. Therefore, strategies aimed at reducing the impact of the water footprint of a product need to analyse both the WF along the value chain and within the local context.

Performance metrics for small-signal stability assessment of DC-distributed power-system-architecture comparisons

The objective of this paper is to provide performance metrics for small-signal stability assessment of a given system architecture. The stability margins are stated utilizing a concept of maximum peak criteria (MPC) derived from the behavior of an impedance-based sensitivity function. For each minor-loop gain defined at every system interface, a single number to state the robustness of stability is provided based on the computed maximum value of the corresponding sensitivity function. In order to compare various power-architecture solutions in terms of stability, a parameter providing an overall measure of the whole system stability is required. The selected figure of merit is geometric average of each maximum peak value within the system. It provides a meaningful metrics for system comparisons: the best system in terms of robust stability is the one that minimizes this index. In addition, the largest peak value within the system interfaces is given thus detecting the weakest point of the system in terms of robustness.

Neutron spectra and dosimetric assessment around a neutron Howitzer container

The neutron Howitzer container at the Neutron Measurements Laboratory of the Nuclear Engineering Department of the Polytechnic University of Madrid (UPM), is equipped with a 241Am-Be neutron source of 74 GBq in its center. The container allows the source to be in either the irradiation or the storage position. To measure the neutron fluence rate spectra around the Howitzer container, measurements were performed using a Bonner spheres spectrometer and the spectra were unfolded using the NSDann program. A calibrated neutron area monitor LB6411 was used to measure the ambient dose equivalent rates, H*(10). Detailed Monte-Carlo simulations were performed to calculate the measured quantities at the same positions. The maximum relative deviation between simulations and measurements was 19.53%. After validation, the simulated model was used to calculate the equivalent dose rate in several key organs of a voxel phantom. The computed doses in the skin and lenses of the eyes are within the ICRP recommended dose limits, as is the H*(10) value for the storage position.

Discrete element analysis for the assessment of the accuracy of load cell-based dynamic weighing systems in grape harvesters under different ground conditions

Dynamic weighing systems based on load cells are commonly used to estimate crop yields in the field. There is lack of data, however, regarding the accuracy of such weighing systems mounted on harvesting machinery, especially on that used to collect high value crops such as fruits and vegetables. Certainly, dynamic weighing systems mounted on the bins of grape harvesters are affected by the displacement of the load inside the bin when moving over terrain of changing topography. In this work, the load that would be registered in a grape harvester bin by a dynamic weighing system based on the use of a load cell was inferred by using the discrete element method (DEM). DEM is a numerical technique capable of accurately describing the behaviour of granular materials under dynamic situations and it has been proven to provide successful predictions in many different scenarios. In this work, different DEM models of a grape harvester bin were developed contemplating different influencing factors. Results obtained from these models were used to infer the output given by the load cell of a real bin. The mass detected by the load cell when the bin was inclined depended strongly on the distribution of the load within the bin, but was underestimated in all scenarios. The distribution of the load was found to be dependent on the inclination of the bin caused by the topography of the terrain, but also by the history of inclination (inclination rate, presence of static periods, etc.) since the effect of the inertia of the particles (i.e., representing the grapes) was not negligible. Some recommendations are given to try to improve the accuracy of crop load measurement in the field.

Development and implementation of an air quality integrated assessment modelling system for the Iberian Peninsula

La mejora de la calidad del aire es una tarea eminentemente interdisciplinaria. Dada la gran variedad de ciencias y partes involucradas, dicha mejora requiere de herramientas de evaluación simples y completamente integradas. La modelización para la evaluación integrada (integrated assessment modeling) ha demostrado ser una solución adecuada para la descripción de los sistemas de contaminación atmosférica puesto que considera cada una de las etapas involucradas: emisiones, química y dispersión atmosférica, impactos ambientales asociados y potencial de disminución. Varios modelos de evaluación integrada ya están disponibles a escala continental, cubriendo cada una de las etapas antesmencionadas, siendo el modelo GAINS (Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies) el más reconocido y usado en el contexto europeo de toma de decisiones medioambientales. Sin embargo, el manejo de la calidad del aire a escala nacional/regional dentro del marco de la evaluación integrada es deseable. Esto sin embargo, no se lleva a cabo de manera satisfactoria con modelos a escala europea debido a la falta de resolución espacial o de detalle en los datos auxiliares, principalmente los inventarios de emisión y los patrones meteorológicos, entre otros. El objetivo de esta tesis es presentar los desarrollos en el diseño y aplicación de un modelo de evaluación integrada especialmente concebido para España y Portugal. El modelo AERIS (Atmospheric Evaluation and Research Integrated system for Spain) es capaz de cuantificar perfiles de concentración para varios contaminantes (NO2, SO2, PM10, PM2,5, NH3 y O3), el depósito atmosférico de especies de azufre y nitrógeno así como sus impactos en cultivos, vegetación, ecosistemas y salud como respuesta a cambios porcentuales en las emisiones de sectores relevantes. La versión actual de AERIS considera 20 sectores de emisión, ya sea equivalentes a sectores individuales SNAP o macrosectores, cuya contribución a los niveles de calidad del aire, depósito e impactos han sido modelados a través de matrices fuentereceptor (SRMs). Estas matrices son constantes de proporcionalidad que relacionan cambios en emisiones con diferentes indicadores de calidad del aire y han sido obtenidas a través de parametrizaciones estadísticas de un modelo de calidad del aire (AQM). Para el caso concreto de AERIS, su modelo de calidad del aire “de origen” consistió en el modelo WRF para la meteorología y en el modelo CMAQ para los procesos químico-atmosféricos. La cuantificación del depósito atmosférico, de los impactos en ecosistemas, cultivos, vegetación y salud humana se ha realizado siguiendo las metodologías estándar establecidas bajo los marcos internacionales de negociación, tales como CLRTAP. La estructura de programación está basada en MATLAB®, permitiendo gran compatibilidad con software típico de escritorio comoMicrosoft Excel® o ArcGIS®. En relación con los niveles de calidad del aire, AERIS es capaz de proveer datos de media anual y media mensual, así como el 19o valor horario más alto paraNO2, el 25o valor horario y el 4o valor diario más altos para SO2, el 36o valor diario más alto para PM10, el 26o valor octohorario más alto, SOMO35 y AOT40 para O3. En relación al depósito atmosférico, el depósito acumulado anual por unidad de area de especies de nitrógeno oxidado y reducido al igual que de azufre pueden ser determinados. Cuando los valores anteriormente mencionados se relacionan con características del dominio modelado tales como uso de suelo, cubiertas vegetales y forestales, censos poblacionales o estudios epidemiológicos, un gran número de impactos puede ser calculado. Centrándose en los impactos a ecosistemas y suelos, AERIS es capaz de estimar las superaciones de cargas críticas y las superaciones medias acumuladas para especies de nitrógeno y azufre. Los daños a bosques se calculan como una superación de los niveles críticos de NO2 y SO2 establecidos. Además, AERIS es capaz de cuantificar daños causados por O3 y SO2 en vid, maíz, patata, arroz, girasol, tabaco, tomate, sandía y trigo. Los impactos en salud humana han sido modelados como consecuencia de la exposición a PM2,5 y O3 y cuantificados como pérdidas en la esperanza de vida estadística e indicadores de mortalidad prematura. La exactitud del modelo de evaluación integrada ha sido contrastada estadísticamente con los resultados obtenidos por el modelo de calidad del aire convencional, exhibiendo en la mayoría de los casos un buen nivel de correspondencia. Debido a que la cuantificación de los impactos no es llevada a cabo directamente por el modelo de calidad del aire, un análisis de credibilidad ha sido realizado mediante la comparación de los resultados de AERIS con los de GAINS para un escenario de emisiones determinado. El análisis reveló un buen nivel de correspondencia en las medias y en las distribuciones probabilísticas de los conjuntos de datos. Las pruebas de verificación que fueron aplicadas a AERIS sugieren que los resultados son suficientemente consistentes para ser considerados como razonables y realistas. En conclusión, la principal motivación para la creación del modelo fue el producir una herramienta confiable y a la vez simple para el soporte de las partes involucradas en la toma de decisiones, de cara a analizar diferentes escenarios “y si” con un bajo coste computacional. La interacción con políticos y otros actores dictó encontrar un compromiso entre la complejidad del modeladomedioambiental con el carácter conciso de las políticas, siendo esto algo que AERIS refleja en sus estructuras conceptual y computacional. Finalmente, cabe decir que AERIS ha sido creado para su uso exclusivo dentro de un marco de evaluación y de ninguna manera debe ser considerado como un sustituto de los modelos de calidad del aire ordinarios. ABSTRACT Improving air quality is an eminently inter-disciplinary task. The wide variety of sciences and stakeholders that are involved call for having simple yet fully-integrated and reliable evaluation tools available. Integrated AssessmentModeling has proved to be a suitable solution for the description of air pollution systems due to the fact that it considers each of the involved stages: emissions, atmospheric chemistry, dispersion, environmental impacts and abatement potentials. Some integrated assessment models are available at European scale that cover each of the before mentioned stages, being the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model the most recognized and widely-used within a European policy-making context. However, addressing air quality at the national/regional scale under an integrated assessment framework is desirable. To do so, European-scale models do not provide enough spatial resolution or detail in their ancillary data sources, mainly emission inventories and local meteorology patterns as well as associated results. The objective of this dissertation is to present the developments in the design and application of an Integrated Assessment Model especially conceived for Spain and Portugal. The Atmospheric Evaluation and Research Integrated system for Spain (AERIS) is able to quantify concentration profiles for several pollutants (NO2, SO2, PM10, PM2.5, NH3 and O3), the atmospheric deposition of sulfur and nitrogen species and their related impacts on crops, vegetation, ecosystems and health as a response to percentual changes in the emissions of relevant sectors. The current version of AERIS considers 20 emission sectors, either corresponding to individual SNAP sectors or macrosectors, whose contribution to air quality levels, deposition and impacts have been modeled through the use of source-receptor matrices (SRMs). Thesematrices are proportionality constants that relate emission changes with different air quality indicators and have been derived through statistical parameterizations of an air qualitymodeling system (AQM). For the concrete case of AERIS, its parent AQM relied on the WRF model for meteorology and on the CMAQ model for atmospheric chemical processes. The quantification of atmospheric deposition, impacts on ecosystems, crops, vegetation and human health has been carried out following the standard methodologies established under international negotiation frameworks such as CLRTAP. The programming structure isMATLAB ® -based, allowing great compatibility with typical software such as Microsoft Excel ® or ArcGIS ® Regarding air quality levels, AERIS is able to provide mean annual andmean monthly concentration values, as well as the indicators established in Directive 2008/50/EC, namely the 19th highest hourly value for NO2, the 25th highest daily value and the 4th highest hourly value for SO2, the 36th highest daily value of PM10, the 26th highest maximum 8-hour daily value, SOMO35 and AOT40 for O3. Regarding atmospheric deposition, the annual accumulated deposition per unit of area of species of oxidized and reduced nitrogen as well as sulfur can be estimated. When relating the before mentioned values with specific characteristics of the modeling domain such as land use, forest and crops covers, population counts and epidemiological studies, a wide array of impacts can be calculated. When focusing on impacts on ecosystems and soils, AERIS is able to estimate critical load exceedances and accumulated average exceedances for nitrogen and sulfur species. Damage on forests is estimated as an exceedance of established critical levels of NO2 and SO2. Additionally, AERIS is able to quantify damage caused by O3 and SO2 on grapes, maize, potato, rice, sunflower, tobacco, tomato, watermelon and wheat. Impacts on human health aremodeled as a consequence of exposure to PM2.5 and O3 and quantified as losses in statistical life expectancy and premature mortality indicators. The accuracy of the IAM has been tested by statistically contrasting the obtained results with those yielded by the conventional AQM, exhibiting in most cases a good agreement level. Due to the fact that impacts cannot be directly produced by the AQM, a credibility analysis was carried out for the outputs of AERIS for a given emission scenario by comparing them through probability tests against the performance of GAINS for the same scenario. This analysis revealed a good correspondence in the mean behavior and the probabilistic distributions of the datasets. The verification tests that were applied to AERIS suggest that results are consistent enough to be credited as reasonable and realistic. In conclusion, the main reason thatmotivated the creation of this model was to produce a reliable yet simple screening tool that would provide decision and policy making support for different “what-if” scenarios at a low computing cost. The interaction with politicians and other stakeholders dictated that reconciling the complexity of modeling with the conciseness of policies should be reflected by AERIS in both, its conceptual and computational structures. It should be noted however, that AERIS has been created under a policy-driven framework and by no means should be considered as a substitute of the ordinary AQM.