Unit Root Analysis of Traffic Time Series in Toll Highways

Concession contracts in highways often include some kind of clauses (for example, a minimum traffic guarantee) that allow for better management of the business risks. The value of these clauses may be important and should be added to the total value of the concession. However, in these cases, traditional valuation techniques, like the NPV (net present value) of the project, are insufficient. An alternative methodology for the valuation of highway concession is one based on the real options approach. This methodology is generally built on the assumption of the evolution of traffic volume as a GBM (geometric Brownian motion), which is the hypothesis analyzed in this paper. First, a description of the methodology used for the analysis of the existence of unit roots (i.e., the hypothesis of non-stationarity) is provided. The Dickey-Fuller approach has been used, which is the most common test for this kind of analysis. Then this methodology is applied to perform a statistical analysis of traffic series in Spanish toll highways. For this purpose, data on the AADT (annual average daily traffic) on a set of highways have been used. The period of analysis is around thirty years in most cases. The main outcome of the research is that the hypothesis that traffic volume follows a GBM process in Spanish toll highways cannot be rejected. This result is robust, and therefore it can be used as a starting point for the application of the real options theory to assess toll highway concessions.

Muro cortina modular con marco de baja transmitancia térmica integrado en el vidrio aislante a través de adhesivos estructurales = Unitised curtain wall with low thermal transmittance frame integrated within the insulating glass unit through structural adhesives

Los muros cortina modulares están constituidos por paneles prefabricados que se fijan al edificio a través de anclajes a lo largo del borde del forjado. El proceso de prefabricación garantiza buena calidad y control de los acabados y el proceso de instalación es rápido y no requiere andamiaje. Por estas razones su uso está muy extendido en torres. Sin embargo, el diseño de los marcos de aluminio podría ser más eficiente si se aprovechara la rigidez de los vidrios para reducir la profundidad estructural de los montantes. Asimismo, se podrían reducir los puentes térmicos en las juntas si se sustituyeran los marcos por materiales de menor conductividad térmica que el aluminio. Esta investigación persigue desarrollar un muro cortina alternativo que reduzca la profundidad estructural, reduzca la transmisión térmica en las juntas y permita un acabado enrasado al interior, sin que sobresalgan los montantes. La idea consiste en conectar un marco de material compuesto de fibra de vidrio a lo largo del borde del vidrio aislante a través de adhesivos estructurales para así movilizar una acción estructural compuesta entre los dos vidrios y lograr una baja transmitancia térmica. El marco ha de estar integrado en la profundidad del vidrio aislante. En una primera fase se han efectuado cálculos estructurales y térmicos preliminares para evaluar las prestaciones a un nivel esquemático. Además, se han realizado ensayos a flexión en materiales compuestos de fibra de vidrio y ensayos a cortante en las conexiones adhesivas entre vidrio y material compuesto. Con la información obtenida se ha seleccionado el material del marco y del adhesivo y se han efectuado cambios sobre el diseño original. Los análisis numéricos finales demuestran una reducción de la profundidad estructural de un 80% y una reducción de la transmisión térmica de un 6% en comparación con un sistema convencional tomado como referencia. El sistema propuesto permite obtener acabados enrasados. ABSTRACT Unitised curtain wall systems consist of pre manufactured cladding panels which can be fitted to the building via pre fixed brackets along the edge of the floor slab. They are universally used for high rise buildings because the factory controlled assembly of units ensures high quality and allows fast installation without external access. However, its frame is structurally over-dimensioned because it is designed to carry the full structural load, failing to take advantage of potential composite contribution of glass. Subsequently, it is unnecessarily deep, occupying valuable space, and protrudes to the inside, causing visual disruption. Moreover, it is generally made of high thermal conductivity metal alloys, contributing to substantial thermal transmission at joints. This research aims to develop a novel frame-integrated unitised curtain wall system that will reduce thermal transmission at joints, reduce structural depth significantly and allow an inside flush finish. The idea is to adhesively bond a Fibre Reinforced Polymer (FRP) frame to the edge of the Insulated Glass Unit (IGU), thereby achieving composite structural behaviour and low thermal transmittance. The frame is to fit within the glazing cavity depth. Preliminary analytical structural and numerical thermal calculations are carried out to assess the performance of an initial schematic design. 4-point bending tests on GFRP and single-lap shear tests on bonded connections between GFRP and glass are performed to inform the frame and adhesive material selection process and to characterise these materials. Based on the preliminary calculations and experimental tests, some changes are put into effect to improve the performance of the system and mitigate potential issues. Structural and thermal numerical analysis carried out on the final detail design confirm a reduction of the structural depth to almost one fifth and a reduction of thermal transmission of 6% compared to a benchmark conventional system. A flush glazed appearance both to the inside and the outside are provided while keeping the full functionality of a unitised system.