A general framework to testing the effect of transport policy measures to achieve a modal shift: a sequental hybrid model

In order to achieve to minimize car-based trips, transport planners have been particularly interested in understanding the factors that explain modal choices. In the transport modelling literature there has been an increasing awareness that socioeconomic attributes and quantitative variables are not sufficient to characterize travelers and forecast their travel behavior. Recent studies have also recognized that users? social interactions and land use patterns influence travel behavior, especially when changes to transport systems are introduced, but links between international and Spanish perspectives are rarely deal. In this paper, factorial and path analyses through a Multiple-Indicator Multiple-Cause (MIMIC) model are used to understand and describe the relationship between the different psychological and environmental constructs with social influence and socioeconomic variables. The MIMIC model generates Latent Variables (LVs) to be incorporated sequentially into Discrete Choice Models (DCM) where the levels of service and cost attributes of travel modes are also included directly to measure the effect of the transport policies that have been introduced in Madrid during the last three years in the context of the economic crisis. The data used for this paper are collected from a two panel smartphone-based survey (n=255 and 190 respondents, respectively) of Madrid.

Win-win transport strategies: searching for sinergies

In order to achieve to minimize car-based trips, transport planners have been particularly interested in understanding the factors that explain modal choices. In the transport modelling literature there has been an increasing awareness that socioeconomic attributes and quantitative variables are not sufficient to characterize travelers and forecast their travel behavior. Recent studies have also recognized that users? social interactions and land use patterns influence travel behavior, especially when changes to transport systems are introduced, but links between international and Spanish perspectives are rarely deal. In this paper, factorial and path analyses through a Multiple-Indicator Multiple-Cause (MIMIC) model are used to understand and describe the relationship between the different psychological and environmental constructs with social influence and socioeconomic variables. The MIMIC model generates Latent Variables (LVs) to be incorporated sequentially into Discrete Choice Models (DCM) where the levels of service and cost attributes of travel modes are also included directly to measure the effect of the transport policies that have been introduced in Madrid during the last three years in the context of the economic crisis. The data used for this paper are collected from a two panel smartphone-based survey (n=255 and 190 respondents, respectively) of Madrid.

Assessment methodology applied to demand measures to change urban mobility behavior

In order to minimize car-based trips, transport planners have been particularly interested in understanding the factors that explain modal choices. Transport modelling literature has been increasingly aware that socioeconomic attributes and quantitative variables are not sufficient to characterize travelers and forecast their travel behavior. Recent studies have also recognized that users’ social interactions and land use patterns influence travel behavior, especially when changes to transport systems are introduced; but links between international and Spanish perspectives are rarely dealt with. The overall objective of the thesis is to develop a stepped methodology that integrate diverse perspectives to evaluate the willingness to change patterns of urban mobility in Madrid, based on four steps: (1st) analysis of causal relationships between both objective and subjective personal variables, and travel behavior to capture pro-car and pro-public transport intentions; (2nd) exploring the potential influence of individual trip characteristics and social influence variables on transport mode choice; (3rd) identifying built environment dimensions on travel behavior; and (4th) exploring the potential influence on transport mode choice of extrinsic characteristics of individual trip using panel data, land use variables using spatial characteristics and social influence variables. The data used for this thesis have been collected from a two panel smartphone-based survey (n=255 and 190 respondents, respectively) carried out in Madrid. Although the steps above are mainly methodological, the application to the area of Madrid allows deriving important results that can be directly used to forecast travel demand and to evaluate the benefits of specific policies that might be implemented in the area. The results demonstrated, respectively: (1st) transport policy actions are more likely to be effective when pro-car intention has been disrupted first; (2nd) the consideration of “helped” and “voluntary” users as tested here could have a positive and negative impact, respectively, on the use of public transport; (3rd) the importance of density, design, diversity and accessibility underlying dimensions responsible for land use variables; and (4th) there are clearly different types of combinations of social interactions, land use and time frame on travel behavior studies. Finally, with the objective to study the impact of demand measures to change urban mobility behavior, those previous results have been considered in a unique way, a hybrid discrete choice model has been used on a 5th step. Then it can be concluded that urban mobility behavior is not only ruled by the maximum utility criterion, but also by a strong psychological-environment concept, developed without the mediation of cognitive processes during choice, i.e., many people using public transport on their way to work do not do it for utilitarian reasons, but because no other choice is available. Regarding built environment dimensions, the more diversity place of residence, the more difficult the use of public transport or walking.

Modelling of chloride transport in non-saturated concrete : from microscale to macroscale

Corrosion of steel bars embedded in concrete has a great influence on structural performance and durability of reinforced concrete. Chloride penetration is considered to be a primary cause of concrete deterioration in a vast majority of structures. Therefore, modelling of chloride penetration into concrete has become an area of great interest. The present work focuses on modelling of chloride transport in concrete. The differential macroscopic equations which govern the problem were derived from the equations at the microscopic scale by comparing the porous network with a single equivalent pore whose properties are the same as the average properties of the real porous network. The resulting transport model, which accounts for diffusion, migration, advection, chloride binding and chloride precipitation, consists of three coupled differential equations. The first equation models the transport of chloride ions, while the other two model the flow of the pore water and the heat transfer. In order to calibrate the model, the material parameters to determine experimentally were identified. The differential equations were solved by means of the finite element method. The classical Galerkin method was employed for the pore solution flow and the heat transfer equations, while the streamline upwind Petrov Galerkin method was adopted for the transport equation in order to avoid spatial instabilities for advection dominated problems. The finite element codes are implemented in Matlab® . To retrieve a good understanding of the influence of each variable and parameter, a detailed sensitivity analysis of the model was carried out. In order to determine the diffusive and hygroscopic properties of the studied concretes, as well as their chloride binding capacity, an experimental analysis was performed. The model was successfully compared with experimental data obtained from an offshore oil platform located in Brazil. Moreover, apart from the main objectives, numerous results were obtained throughout this work. For instance, several diffusion coefficients and the relation between them are discussed. It is shown how the electric field set up between the ionic species depends on the gradient of the species’ concentrations. Furthermore, the capillary hysteresis effects are illustrated by a proposed model, which leads to the determination of several microstructure properties, such as the pore size distribution and the tortuosity-connectivity of the porous network. El fenómeno de corrosión del acero de refuerzo embebido en el hormigón ha tenido gran influencia en estructuras de hormigón armado, tanto en su funcionalidad estructural como en aspectos de durabilidad. La penetración de cloruros en el interior del hormigón esta considerada como el factor principal en el deterioro de la gran mayoría de estructuras. Por lo tanto, la modelización numérica de dicho fenómeno ha generado gran interés. El presente trabajo de investigación se centra en la modelización del transporte de cloruros en el interior del hormigón. Las ecuaciones diferenciales que gobiernan los fenómenos a nivel macroscópico se deducen de ecuaciones planteadas a nivel microscópico. Esto se obtiene comparando la red porosa con un poro equivalente, el cual mantiene las mismas propiedades de la red porosa real. El modelo está constituido por tres ecuaciones diferenciales acopladas que consideran el transporte de cloruros, el flujo de la solución de poro y la transferencia de calor. Con estas ecuaciones se tienen en cuenta los fenómenos de difusión, migración, advección, combinación y precipitación de cloruros. El análisis llevado a cabo en este trabajo ha definido los parámetros necesarios para calibrar el modelo. De acuerdo con ellas, se seleccionaron los ensayos experimentales a realizar. Las ecuaciones diferenciales se resolvieron mediante el método de elementos finitos. El método clásico de Galerkin se empleó para solucionar las ecuaciones de flujo de la solución de poro y de la transferencia de calor, mientras que el método streamline upwind Petrov-Galerkin se utilizó para resolver la ecuación de transporte de cloruros con la finalidad de evitar inestabilidades espaciales en problemas con advección dominante. El código de elementos finitos está implementado en Matlab® . Con el objetivo de facilitar la comprensión del grado de influencia de cada variable y parámetro, se realizó un análisis de sensibilidad detallado del modelo. Se llevó a cabo una campaña experimental sobre los hormigones estudiados, con el objeto de obtener sus propiedades difusivas, químicas e higroscópicas. El modelo se contrastó con datos experimentales obtenidos en una plataforma petrolera localizada en Brasil. Las simulaciones numéricas corroboraron los datos experimentales. Además, durante el desarrollo de la investigación se obtuvieron resultados paralelos a los planteados inicialmente. Por ejemplo, el análisis de diferentes coeficientes de difusión y la relación entre ellos. Así como también se observó que el campo eléctrico establecido entre las especies iónicas disueltas en la solución de poro depende del gradiente de concentración de las mismas. Los efectos de histéresis capilar son expresados por el modelo propuesto, el cual conduce a la determinación de una serie de propiedades microscópicas, tales como la distribución del tamaño de poro, además de la tortuosidad y conectividad de la red porosa.

Modelling Saharan dust transport into the Mediterranean basin with CMAQ

The need for a better quantification of the influence of Saharan dust transport processes on the air quality modelling in the Mediterranean basin led to the formulation of a dust emission module (DEM) integrated into the Air Quality Risk Assessment System for the Iberian Peninsula (SERCA). This paper is focused on the formulation of DEM based on the GOCART aerosol model, along with its integration and execution into the air quality model. It also addresses the testing of the module and its evaluation by contrasting results against satellite products such as MODIS and CALIPSO and ground-level observations of aerosol optical thickness (AOT) and concentration levels of PM10 for different periods in July 2007. DEM was found capable of reproducing the spatial (horizontal and vertical) and temporal profiles of Saharan dust outbreaks into the Mediterranean basin and the Atlantic coast of Africa. Moreover, it was observed that its combination with CMAQ increased the correlation degree between observed and modelled PM10 concentrations at the selected monitoring locations. DEM also enhanced CMAQ capabilities to reproduce observed AOT, although significant underestimations remain. The implementation of CMAQ + DEM succeeded in capturing Saharan dust transport into the Iberian Peninsula, with contributions up to 25 and 14 μg m−3 in 1 h and 24 h average PM10 respectively. The general improvement of total PM10 predictions in Spain are however moderate. The analysis of model performance for the main PM components points out that remaining PM10 underestimation is due to dust local sources missing in the inventories and misrepresentation of organic aerosol processes, which constitutes the main areas for future improvement of CMAQ capabilities to simulate particulate matter within SERCA.

Atmospheric modelling of tritium forms transport: review of capabilities and R&D needs for the assessment of fusion facilities environmental impact

One of the key scrutiny issues of new coming energy era would be the environmental impact of fusion facilities managing one kg of tritium. The potential change of committed dose regulatory limits together with the implementation of nuclear design principles (As Low as Reasonably achievable - ALARA -, Defense in Depth -D-i-D-) for fusion facilities could strongly impact on the cost of deployment of coming fusion technology. Accurate modeling of environmental tritium transport forms (HT, HTO) for the assessment of fusion facility dosimetric impact in Accidental case appears as of major interest. This paper considers different short-term releases of tritium forms (HT and HTO) to the atmosphere from a potential fusion reactor located in the Mediterranean Basin. This work models in detail the dispersion of tritium forms and dosimetric impact of selected environmental patterns both inland and in-sea using real topography and forecast meteorological data-fields (ECMWF/FLEXPART). We explore specific values of this ratio in different levels and we examine the influence of meteorological conditions in the HTO behavior for 24 hours. For this purpose we have used a tool which consists on a coupled Lagrangian ECMWF/FLEXPART model useful to follow real time releases of tritium at 10, 30 and 60 meters together with hourly observations of wind (and in some cases precipitations) to provide a short-range approximation of tritium cloud behavior. We have assessed inhalation doses. And also HTO/HT ratios in a representative set of cases during winter 2010 and spring 2011 for the 3 air levels.

Modelling of chloride transport in non-saturated concrete : from microscale to macroscale

A model for chloride transport in concrete is proposed. The model accounts for transport several transport mechanisms such as diffusion, advection, migration, etc. This work shows the chloride transport equations at the macroscopic scale in non-saturated concrete. The equations involve diffusion, migration, capillary suction, chloride combination and precipitation mechanisms. The material is assumed to be infinitely rigid, though the porosity can change under influence of chloride binding and precipitation. The involved microscopic and macroscopic properties of the materials are measured by standardized methods. The variables which must be imposed on the boundaries are temperature, relative humidity and chloride concentration. The output data of the model are the free, bound, precipitated and total chloride ion concentrations, as well as the pore solution content and the porosity. The proposed equations are solved by means of the finite element method (FEM) implemented in MATLAB (classical Galerkin formulation and the streamline upwind Petrov-Galerkin (SUPG) method to avoid spatial instabilities for advection dominated flows).

Understanding how to reduce road transport emissions : modelling the impact of eco-driving

Entre los problemas medioambientales más trascendentales para la sociedad, se encuentra el del cambio climático así como el de la calidad del aire en nuestras áreas metropolitanas. El transporte por carretera es uno de los principales causantes, y como tal, las administraciones públicas se enfrentan a estos problemas desde varios ángulos: Cambios a modos de transporte más limpios, nuevas tecnologías y combustibles en los vehículos, gestión de la demanda y el uso de tecnologías de la información y la comunicación (ICT) aplicadas al transporte. En esta tesis doctoral se plantea como primer objetivo el profundizar en la comprensión de cómo ciertas medidas ICT afectan al tráfico, las emisiones y la propia dinámica de los vehículos. El estudio se basa en una campaña de recogida de datos con vehículos flotantes para evaluar los impactos de cuatro medidas concretas: Control de velocidad por tramo, límites variables de velocidad, limitador de velocidad (control de crucero) y conducción eficiente (eco‐driving). Como segundo objetivo, el estudio se centra en la conducción eficiente, ya que es una de las medidas que más ahorros de combustible presenta a nivel individual. Aunque estas reducciones están suficientemente documentadas en la literatura, muy pocos estudios se centran en estudiar el efecto que los conductores eficientes pueden tener en el flujo de tráfico, y cuál sería el impacto si se fuera aumentando el porcentaje de este tipo de conductores. A través de una herramienta de microsimulación de tráfico, se han construido cuatro modelos de vías urbanas que se corresponden con una autopista urbana, una arteria, un colector y una vía local. Gracias a los datos recogidos en la campaña de vehículos flotantes, se ha calibrado el modelo, tanto el escenario base como el ajuste de parámetros de conducción para simular la conducción eficiente. En total se han simulado 72 escenarios, variando el tipo de vía, la demanda de tráfico y el porcentaje de conductores eficientes. A continuación se han calculado las emisiones de CO2 and NOx mediante un modelo de emisiones a nivel microscópico. Los resultados muestran que en escenarios con alto porcentaje de conductores eficientes y altas demandas de tráfico las emisiones aumentan. Esto se debe a que las mayores distancias de seguridad y las aceleraciones y frenadas suaves hacen que aumente la congestión, produciendo así mayores emisiones a nivel global. Climate change and the reduced air quality in our metropolitan areas are two of the main environmental problems that the society is addressing currently. Being road transportation one of the main contributors, public administrations are facing these problems from different points of view: shift to cleaner modes, new fuels and vehicle technologies, demand management and the use of information and communication technologies (ICT) applied to transportation. The first objective of this thesis is to understand how certain ICT measures affect traffic, emissions and vehicle dynamics. The study is based on a data collection campaign with floating vehicles to evaluate the impact of four specific measures: section speed control, variable speed limits, cruise control and eco‐driving. The second objective of the study focuses on eco‐driving, as it is one of the measures that present the largest fuel savings at an individual level. Although these savings are well documented in the literature, few studies focus on how ecodrivers affect the surrounding vehicles and the traffic, and what would be the impact in case of different eco‐drivers percentage. Using a traffic micro‐simulation tool, four models in urban context have been built, corresponding to urban motorway, urban arterial, urban collector and a local street. Both the base‐case and the parameters setting to simulate eco‐driving have been calibrated with the data collected through floating vehicles. In total 72 scenarios were simulated, varying the type of road, traffic demand and the percentage of eco‐drivers. Then, the CO2 and NOx emissions have been estimated through the use of an emission model at microscopic level. The results show that in scenarios with high percentage of co‐drivers and high traffic demand the emissions rise. Higher headways and smooth acceleration and decelerations increase congestion, producing higher emissions globally.

Modelling the Impact of Built Environment, Geographical Scales and Latent Constructs On Individual Travel Behaviour

La relación entre la estructura urbana y la movilidad ha sido estudiada desde hace más de 70 años. El entorno urbano incluye múltiples dimensiones como por ejemplo: la estructura urbana, los usos de suelo, la distribución de instalaciones diversas (comercios, escuelas y zonas de restauración, parking, etc.). Al realizar una revisión de la literatura existente en este contexto, se encuentran distintos análisis, metodologías, escalas geográficas y dimensiones, tanto de la movilidad como de la estructura urbana. En este sentido, se trata de una relación muy estudiada pero muy compleja, sobre la que no existe hasta el momento un consenso sobre qué dimensión del entorno urbano influye sobre qué dimensión de la movilidad, y cuál es la manera apropiada de representar esta relación. Con el propósito de contestar estas preguntas investigación, la presente tesis tiene los siguientes objetivos generales: (1) Contribuir al mejor entendimiento de la compleja relación estructura urbana y movilidad. y (2) Entender el rol de los atributos latentes en la relación entorno urbano y movilidad. El objetivo específico de la tesis es analizar la influencia del entorno urbano sobre dos dimensiones de la movilidad: número de viajes y tipo de tour. Vista la complejidad de la relación entorno urbano y movilidad, se pretende contribuir al mejor entendimiento de la relación a través de la utilización de 3 escalas geográficas de las variables y del análisis de la influencia de efectos inobservados en la movilidad. Para el análisis se utiliza una base de datos conformada por tres tipos de datos: (1) Una encuesta de movilidad realizada durante los años 2006 y 2007. Se obtuvo un total de 943 encuestas, en 3 barrios de Madrid: Chamberí, Pozuelo y Algete. (2) Información municipal del Instituto Nacional de Estadística: dicha información se encuentra enlazada con los orígenes y destinos de los viajes recogidos en la encuesta. Y (3) Información georeferenciada en Arc-GIS de los hogares participantes en la encuesta: la base de datos contiene información respecto a la estructura de las calles, localización de escuelas, parking, centros médicos y lugares de restauración. Se analizó la correlación entre e intra-grupos y se modelizaron 4 casos de atributos bajo la estructura ordinal logit. Posteriormente se evalúa la auto-selección a través de la estimación conjunta de las elecciones de tipo de barrio y número de viajes. La elección del tipo de barrio consta de 3 alternativas: CBD, Urban y Suburban, según la zona de residencia recogida en las encuestas. Mientras que la elección del número de viajes consta de 4 categorías ordinales: 0 viajes, 1-2 viajes, 3-4 viajes y 5 o más viajes. A partir de la mejor especificación del modelo ordinal logit. Se desarrolló un modelo joint mixed-ordinal conjunto. Los resultados indican que las variables exógenas requieren un análisis exhaustivo de correlaciones con el fin de evitar resultados sesgados. ha determinado que es importante medir los atributos del BE donde se realiza el viaje, pero también la información municipal es muy explicativa de la movilidad individual. Por tanto, la percepción de las zonas de destino a nivel municipal es considerada importante. En el contexto de la Auto-selección (self-selection) es importante modelizar conjuntamente las decisiones. La Auto-selección existe, puesto que los parámetros estimados conjuntamente son significativos. Sin embargo, sólo ciertos atributos del entorno urbano son igualmente importantes sobre la elección de la zona de residencia y frecuencia de viajes. Para analizar la Propensión al Viaje, se desarrolló un modelo híbrido, formado por: una variable latente, un indicador y un modelo de elección discreta. La variable latente se denomina “Propensión al Viaje”, cuyo indicador en ecuación de medida es el número de viajes; la elección discreta es el tipo de tour. El modelo de elección consiste en 5 alternativas, según la jerarquía de actividades establecida en la tesis: HOME, no realiza viajes durante el día de estudio, HWH tour cuya actividad principal es el trabajo o estudios, y no se realizan paradas intermedias; HWHs tour si el individuo reaiza paradas intermedias; HOH tour cuya actividad principal es distinta a trabajo y estudios, y no se realizan paradas intermedias; HOHs donde se realizan paradas intermedias. Para llegar a la mejor especificación del modelo, se realizó un trabajo importante considerando diferentes estructuras de modelos y tres tipos de estimaciones. De tal manera, se obtuvieron parámetros consistentes y eficientes. Los resultados muestran que la modelización de los tours, representa una ventaja sobre la modelización de los viajes, puesto que supera las limitaciones de espacio y tiempo, enlazando los viajes realizados por la misma persona en el día de estudio. La propensión al viaje (PT) existe y es específica para cada tipo de tour. Los parámetros estimados en el modelo híbrido resultaron significativos y distintos para cada alternativa de tipo de tour. Por último, en la tesis se verifica que los modelos híbridos representan una mejora sobre los modelos tradicionales de elección discreta, dando como resultado parámetros consistentes y más robustos. En cuanto a políticas de transporte, se ha demostrado que los atributos del entorno urbano son más importantes que los LOS (Level of Service) en la generación de tours multi-etapas. la presente tesis representa el primer análisis empírico de la relación entre los tipos de tours y la propensión al viaje. El concepto Propensity to Travel ha sido desarrollado exclusivamente para la tesis. Igualmente, el desarrollo de un modelo conjunto RC-Number of trips basado en tres escalas de medida representa innovación en cuanto a la comparación de las escalas geográficas, que no había sido hecha en la modelización de la self-selection. The relationship between built environment (BE) and travel behaviour (TB) has been studied in a number of cases, using several methods - aggregate and disaggregate approaches - and different focuses – trip frequency, automobile use, and vehicle miles travelled and so on. Definitely, travel is generated by the need to undertake activities and obtain services, and there is a general consensus that urban components affect TB. However researches are still needed to better understand which components of the travel behaviour are affected most and by which of the urban components. In order to fill the gap in the research, the present dissertation faced two main objectives: (1) To contribute to the better understanding of the relationship between travel demand and urban environment. And (2) To develop an econometric model for estimating travel demand with urban environment attributes. With this purpose, the present thesis faced an exhaustive research and computation of land-use variables in order to find the best representation of BE for modelling trip frequency. In particular two empirical analyses are carried out: 1. Estimation of three dimensions of travel demand using dimensions of urban environment. We compare different travel dimensions and geographical scales, and we measure self-selection contribution following the joint models. 2. Develop a hybrid model, integrated latent variable and discrete choice model. The implementation of hybrid models is new in the analysis of land-use and travel behaviour. BE and TB explicitly interact and allow richness information about a specific individual decision process For all empirical analysis is used a data-base from a survey conducted in 2006 and 2007 in Madrid. Spatial attributes describing neighbourhood environment are derived from different data sources: National Institute of Statistics-INE (Administrative: municipality and district) and GIS (circular units). INE provides raw data for such spatial units as: municipality and district. The construction of census units is trivial as the census bureau provides tables that readily define districts and municipalities. The construction of circular units requires us to determine the radius and associate the spatial information to our households. The first empirical part analyzes trip frequency by applying an ordered logit model. In this part is studied the effect of socio-economic, transport and land use characteristics on two travel dimensions: trip frequency and type of tour. In particular the land use is defined in terms of type of neighbourhoods and types of dwellers. Three neighbourhood representations are explored, and described three for constructing neighbourhood attributes. In particular administrative units are examined to represent neighbourhood and circular – unit representation. Ordered logit models are applied, while ordinal logit models are well-known, an intensive work for constructing a spatial attributes was carried out. On the other hand, the second empirical analysis consists of the development of an innovative econometric model that considers a latent variable called “propensity to travel”, and choice model is the choice of type of tour. The first two specifications of ordinal models help to estimate this latent variable. The latent variable is unobserved but the manifestation is called “indicators”, then the probability of choosing an alternative of tour is conditional to the probability of latent variable and type of tour. Since latent variable is unknown we fit the integral over its distribution. Four “sets of best variables” are specified, following the specification obtained from the correlation analysis. The results evidence that the relative importance of SE variables versus BE variables depends on how BE variables are measured. We found that each of these three spatial scales has its intangible qualities and drawbacks. Spatial scales play an important role on predicting travel demand due to the variability in measures at trip origin/destinations within the same administrative unit (municipality, district and so on). Larger units will produce less variation in data; but it does not affect certain variables, such as public transport supply, that are more significant at municipality level. By contrast, land-use measures are more efficient at district level. Self-selection in this context, is weak. Thus, the influence of BE attributes is true. The results of the hybrid model show that unobserved factors affect the choice of tour complexity. The latent variable used in this model is propensity to travel that is explained by socioeconomic aspects and neighbourhood attributes. The results show that neighbourhood attributes have indeed a significant impact on the choice of the type of tours either directly and through the propensity to travel. The propensity to travel has a different impact depending on the structure of each tour and increases the probability of choosing more complex tours, such as tours with many intermediate stops. The integration of choice and latent variable model shows that omitting important perception and attitudes leads to inconsistent estimates. The results also indicate that goodness of fit improves by adding the latent variable in both sequential and simultaneous estimation. There are significant differences in the sensitivity to the latent variable across alternatives. In general, as expected, the hybrid models show a major improvement into the goodness of fit of the model, compared to a classical discrete choice model that does not incorporate latent effects. The integrated model leads to a more detailed analysis of the behavioural process. Summarizing, the effect that built environment characteristics on trip frequency studied is deeply analyzed. In particular we tried to better understand how land use characteristics can be defined and measured and which of these measures do have really an impact on trip frequency. We also tried to test the superiority of HCM on this field. We can concluded that HCM shows a major improvement into the goodness of fit of the model, compared to classical discrete choice model that does not incorporate latent effects. And consequently, the application of HCM shows the importance of LV on the decision of tour complexity. People are more elastic to built environment attributes than level of services. Thus, policy implications must take place to develop more mixed areas, work-places in combination with commercial retails.

Development of a methodology and tool to evaluate the impact of ICT measures on road transport emissions

The paper presents the main elements of a project entitled ICT-Emissions that aims at developing a novel methodology to evaluate the impact of ICT-related measures on mobility, vehicle energy consumption and CO2 emissions of vehicle fleets at the local scale, in order to promote the wider application of the most appropriate ICT measures. The proposed methodology combines traffic and emission modelling at micro and macro scales. These will be linked with interfaces and submodules which will be specifically designed and developed. A number of sources are available to the consortium to obtain the necessary input data. Also, experimental campaigns are offered to fill in gaps of information in traffic and emission patterns. The application of the methodology will be demonstrated using commercially available software. However, the methodology is developed in such a way as to enable its implementation by a variety of emission and traffic models. Particular emphasis is given to (a) the correct estimation of driver behaviour, as a result of traffic-related ICT measures, (b) the coverage of a large number of current vehicle technologies, including ICT systems, and (c) near future technologies such as hybrid, plug-in hybrids, and electric vehicles. The innovative combination of traffic, driver, and emission models produces a versatile toolbox that can simulate the impact on energy and CO2 of infrastructure measures (traffic management, dynamic traffic signs, etc.), driver assistance systems and ecosolutions (speed/cruise control, start/stop systems, etc.) or a combination of measures (cooperative systems).The methodology is validated by application in the Turin area and its capacity is further demonstrated by application in real world conditions in Madrid and Rome.

Impacts of the EU Biofuel Target on Agricultural Markets and Land Use - A Comparative Modelling Assessment

The Renewable Energy Directive (2009/28/EC) requires that 20% of the EU's energy needs should come from renewable sources by 2020, and includes a target for the transport sector of 10% from biofuels. This report analyses and discusses the global impacts of this biofuel target on agricultural production, markets and land use, as simulated by three agricultural sector models, AGLINK-COSIMO, ESIM and CAPRI. The impacts identified include higher EU production of ethanol and biodiesel, and of the crops used to produce them, as well as more imports of both biofuels. Trade flows of biofuel feedstocks also change to reflect greater EU demand, including a significant increase in vegetable oil imports. However, as the extra demand is small in world market terms, the impact on world market prices is limited. With the EU biofuel target, global use of land for crop cultivation is higher by 5.2 million hectares. About one quarter is area within the EU, some of which would otherwise have left agriculture.

Modelling of chloride penetration into non-saturated concrete: Case study application for real marine off shore structures

The aim of this paper is to explain the chloride concentration profiles obtained experimentally from control samples of an offshore platform after 25 years of service life. The platform is located 12 km off the coast of the Brazilian province Rio Grande do Norte, in the north-east of Brazil. The samples were extracted at different orientations and heights above mean sea level. A simple model based on Fick’s second law is considered and compared with a finite element model which takes into account transport of chloride ions by diffusion and convection. Results show that convective flows significantly affect the studied chloride penetrations. The convection velocity is obtained by fitting the finite element solution to the experimental data and seems to be directly proportional to the height above mean sea level and also seems to depend on the orientation of the face of the platform. This work shows that considering solely diffusion as transport mechanism does not allow a good prediction of the chloride profiles. Accounting for capillary suction due to moisture gradients permits a better interpretation of the material’s behaviour.

Modelling the relationship between urban environment and travel behaviour: policy and indicators

Due to the necessity to undertake activities, every year people increase their standards of travelling (distance and time). Urban sprawl development plays an important role in these "enlargements". Thus, governments invest money in an exhaustiva search for solutions to high levels of congestion and car-trips. The complex relationship between urban environment and travel behaviour has been studied in a number of cases. Thus, the objective of this paper is to answer the important question of which land-use attributes influence which dimensions of travel behaviour, and to verify to what extent specific urban planning measures affect the individual decision process, by exhaustiva statistical and systematic tests. This paper found that a crucial issue in the analysis of the relationship between the built environment and travel behaviour is the definition of indicators. As such, we recommend a feasible list of indicators to analyze this relationship.

Modelling of chloride penetration into non-saturated concrete: case study application for real marine offshore structures

The aim of this paper is to explain the chloride concentration profiles obtained experimentally from control samples of an offshore platform after 25 years of service life. The platform is located 12 km off the coast of the Brazilian province Rio Grande do Norte, in the north-east of Brazil. The samples were extracted at different orientations and heights above mean sea level. A simple model based on Fick’s second law is considered and compared with a finite element model which takes into account transport of chloride ions by diffusion and convection. Results show that convective flows significantly affect the studied chloride penetrations. The convection velocity is obtained by fitting the finite element solution to the experimental data and seems to be directly proportional to the height above mean sea level and also seems to depend on the orientation of the face of the platform. This work shows that considering solely diffusion as transport mechanism does not allow a good prediction of the chloride profiles. Accounting for capillary suction due to moisture gradients permits a better interpretation of the material’s behaviour

A methodology to compute emission projections from road transport (EmiTRANS)

Atmospheric emissions from road transport have increased all around the world during the last decades more rapidly than from other pollution sources. For instance, they contribute to more than 25% of total CO, CO2, NOx, and fine particle emissions in most of the European countries. This situation shows the importance of road transport when complying with emission ceilings and air quality standards applied to these pollutants. This paper presents a modelling system to perform atmospheric emission projections (simultaneously both air quality pollutants and greenhouse gases) from road transport including the development of a tailored software tool (EmiTRANS) as a planning tool. The methodology has been developed with two purposes: 1) to obtain outputs used as inputs to the COPERT4 software to calculate emission projections and 2) to summarize outputs for policy making evaluating the effect of emission abatement measures for a vehicle fleet. This methodology has been applied to the calculation of emission projections in Spain up to 2020 under several scenarios, including a sensitivity analysis useful for a better interpretation and confidence building on the results. This case study demonstrates the EmiTRANS applicability to a country, and points out the need for combining both technical and non-technical measures (such as behavioural changes or demand management) to reduce emissions, indirectly improving air quality and contributing to mitigate climate change.