Examining wheat yield sensitivity to temperature and precipitation changes for a large ensemble of crop models using impact response surfaces

Impact response surfaces (IRSs) depict the response of an impact variable to changes in two explanatory variables as a plotted surface. Here, IRSs of spring and winter wheat yields were constructed from a 25-member ensemble of process-based crop simulation models. Twenty-one models were calibrated by different groups using a common set of calibration data, with calibrations applied independently to the same models in three cases. The sensitivity of modelled yield to changes in temperature and precipitation was tested by systematically modifying values of 1981-2010 baseline weather data to span the range of 19 changes projected for the late 21st century at three locations in Europe.

High-quality conforming hexahedral meshes of patient-specific abdominal aortic aneurysms including their intraluminal thrombi

In order to perform finite element (FE) analyses of patient-specific abdominal aortic aneurysms, geometries derived from medical images must be meshed with suitable elements. We propose a semi-automatic method for generating conforming hexahedral meshes directly from contours segmented from medical images. Magnetic resonance images are generated using a protocol developed to give the abdominal aorta high contrast against the surrounding soft tissue. These data allow us to distinguish between the different structures of interest. We build novel quadrilateral meshes for each surface of the sectioned geometry and generate conforming hexahedral meshes by combining the quadrilateral meshes. The three-layered morphology of both the arterial wall and thrombus is incorporated using parameters determined from experiments. We demonstrate the quality of our patient-specific meshes using the element Scaled Jacobian. The method efficiently generates high-quality elements suitable for FE analysis, even in the bifurcation region of the aorta into the iliac arteries. For example, hexahedral meshes of up to 125,000 elements are generated in less than 130 s, with 94.8 % of elements well suited for FE analysis. We provide novel input for simulations by independently meshing both the arterial wall and intraluminal thrombus of the aneurysm, and their respective layered morphologies.

Temperature and precipitation effects on wheat yield across a European transect: a crop model ensemble analysis using impact response surfaces

This study explored the utility of the impact response surface (IRS) approach for investigating model ensemble crop yield responses under a large range of changes in climate. IRSs of spring and winter wheat Triticum aestivum yields were constructed from a 26-member ensemble of process-based crop simulation models for sites in Finland, Germany and Spain across a latitudinal transect. The sensitivity of modelled yield to systematic increments of changes in temperature (-2 to +9°C) and precipitation (-50 to +50%) was tested by modifying values of baseline (1981 to 2010) daily weather, with CO2 concentration fixed at 360 ppm. The IRS approach offers an effective method of portraying model behaviour under changing climate as well as advantages for analysing, comparing and presenting results from multi-model ensemble simulations. Though individual model behaviour occasionally departed markedly from the average, ensemble median responses across sites and crop varieties indicated that yields decline with higher temperatures and decreased precipitation and increase with higher precipitation. Across the uncertainty ranges defined for the IRSs, yields were more sensitive to temperature than precipitation changes at the Finnish site while sensitivities were mixed at the German and Spanish sites. Precipitation effects diminished under higher temperature changes. While the bivariate and multi-model characteristics of the analysis impose some limits to interpretation, the IRS approach nonetheless provides additional insights into sensitivities to inter-model and inter-annual variability. Taken together, these sensitivities may help to pinpoint processes such as heat stress, vernalisation or drought effects requiring refinement in future model development.