An evaluation of seismic hazard in La Hispaniola, after the 2010 Haiti earthquake

An evaluation of the seismic hazard in La Hispaniola Island has been carried out, as part of the cooperative project SISMO-HAITI, supported by the Technical University of Madrid (UPM) and developed by several Spanish Universities, the National Observatory of Environment and Vulnerability) ONEV of Haiti, and with contributions from the Puerto Rico Seismic Network (PRSN) and University Seismological Institute of Dominican Republic (ISU). The study was aimed at obtaining results suitable for seismic design purposes. It started with the elaboration of a seismic catalogue for the Hispaniola Island, requiring an exhaustive revision of data reported by more than 20 seismic agencies, apart from these from the PRSN and ISU. The final catalogue contains 96 historical earthquakes and 1690 instrumental events, and it was homogenized to moment magnitude, Mw. Seismotectonic models proposed for the region were revised and a new regional zonation was proposed, taking into account geological andtectonic data, seismicity, focal mechanisms, and GPS observations. In parallel, attenuation models for subduction and crustal zones were revised in previous projects and the most suitable for the Caribbean plate were selected. Then, a seismic hazard analysis was developed in terms of peak ground acceleration, PGA, and spectral accelerations, SA (T), for periods of 0.1, 0.2, 0.5, 1 and 2s, using the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) methodology. As a result, different hazard maps were obtained for the quoted parameters, together with Uniform Hazard Spectra for Port au Prince and the main cities in the country. Hazard deaggregation was also carried out in these towns, for the target motion given by the PGA and SA (1s) obtained for return periods of 475, 975 and 2475 years. Therefore, the controlling earthquakes for short- and long-period target motions were derived. This study was started a few months after the 2010 earthquake, as a response to an aid request from the Haitian government to the UPM, and the results are available for the definition of the first building code in Haiti.

Uncertainty Analysis in New Seismic Hazard Study of Spain Aimed at the Revision of the Spanish Building Code.

In this paper we present a global overview of the recent study carried out in Spain for the new hazard map, which final goal is the revision of the Building Code in our country (NCSE-02). The study was carried our for a working group joining experts from The Instituto Geografico Nacional (IGN) and the Technical University of Madrid (UPM) , being the different phases of the work supervised by an expert Committee integrated by national experts from public institutions involved in subject of seismic hazard. The PSHA method (Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment) has been followed, quantifying the epistemic uncertainties through a logic tree and the aleatory ones linked to variability of parameters by means of probability density functions and Monte Carlo simulations. In a first phase, the inputs have been prepared, which essentially are: 1) a project catalogue update and homogenization at Mw 2) proposal of zoning models and source characterization 3) calibration of Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPE’s) with actual data and development of a local model with data collected in Spain for Mw < 5.5. In a second phase, a sensitivity analysis of the different input options on hazard results has been carried out in order to have criteria for defining the branches of the logic tree and their weights. Finally, the hazard estimation was done with the logic tree shown in figure 1, including nodes for quantifying uncertainties corresponding to: 1) method for estimation of hazard (zoning and zoneless); 2) zoning models, 3) GMPE combinations used and 4) regression method for estimation of source parameters. In addition, the aleatory uncertainties corresponding to the magnitude of the events, recurrence parameters and maximum magnitude for each zone have been also considered including probability density functions and Monte Carlo simulations The main conclusions of the study are presented here, together with the obtained results in terms of PGA and other spectral accelerations SA (T) for return periods of 475, 975 and 2475 years. The map of the coefficient of variation (COV) are also represented to give an idea of the zones where the dispersion among results are the highest and the zones where the results are robust.

Modelización de las fallas activas para la estimación de la Peligrosidad Sísmica. Aplicación Metodológica en Haití

The development of this Master's Thesis is aimed at modeling active for estimating seismic hazard in Haití failures. It has been used zoned probabilistic method, both classical and hybrid, considering the incorporation of active faults as independent units in the calculation of seismic hazard. In this case, the rate of seismic moment is divided between the failures and the area seismogenetic same region. Failures included in this study are the Septentrional, Matheux and Enriquillo fault. We compared the results obtained by both methods to determine the importance of considering the faults in the calculation. In the first instance, updating the seismic catalog, homogenization, completeness analysis and purification was necessary to obtain a catalog ready to proceed to the estimation of the hazard. With the seismogenic zoning defined in previous studies and the updated seismic catalog, they are obtained relations Gutenberg-Richter recurrence of seismicity, superficial and deep in each area. Selected attenuation models were those used in (Benito et al., 2011), as the tectonic area of study is very similar to that of Central America. Its implementation has been through the development of a logical in which each branch is multiplied by an index based on the relevance of each combination of models. Results are presented as seismic hazard maps for return periods of 475, 975 and 2475 years, and spectral acceleration (SA) in structural periods: 0.1 - 0.2 - 0.5 - 1.0 and 2.0 seconds, and the difference accelerations between maps obtained by the classical method and the hybrid method. Maps realize the importance of including faults as separate items in the calculation of the hazard. The morphology of the zoned maps presented higher values in the area where the superficial and deep zone overlap. In the results it can determine that the minimum values in the zoned approach they outweigh the hybrid method, especially in areas where there are no faults. Higher values correspond to those obtained in fault zones by the hybrid method understanding that the contribution of the faults in this method is very important with high values. The maximum value of PGA obtained is close to Septentrional in 963gal, near to 460 gal in Matheux, and the Enriquillo fault line value reaches 760gal PGA in the Eastern segment and Western 730gal in the segment. This compares with that obtained in the zoned approach in this area where the value of PGA obtained was 240gal. These values are compared with those obtained by Frankel et al., (2011) with those have much similarity in values and morphology, in contrast to those presented by Benito et al., (2012) and the Standard Seismic Dominican Republic

Desarrollos metodológicos y aplicaciones hacia el cálculo de la peligrosidad sísmica en el ecuador continental y estudio de riesgo sísmico en la ciudad de Quito

En el presente trabajo de tesis se desarrolla, en primer lugar, un estudio de peligrosidad sísmica en Ecuador continental, siguiendo una metodología probabilista zonificada. El estudio se plantea a escala regional y presenta como principales aportaciones: 1) la elaboración de un Estado del Arte sobre Tectónica y Geología de Ecuador, concluyendo con la identificación de las principales fuentes sísmicas; 2) La confección de un Catálogo Sísmico de proyecto, recopilando información de distintas agencias, que ha sido homogeneizado a magnitud momento, Mw, depurado de réplicas y premonitores y corregido por la falta de completitud para la estimación de tasas en diferentes rangos de magnitud; 3) la propuesta de un nueva zonificación sísmica, definiendo las zonas sismogenéticas en tres regímenes tectónicos: cortical, subducción interfase y subducción in-slab; 4) la caracterización sísmica de cada zona estimando los parámetros de recurrencia y Magnitud Máxima (Mmax), considerando para este último parámetro una distribución de valores posibles en función de la sismicidad y tectónica, tras un exhaustivo análisis de los datos existentes; 5) la generación de mapas de peligrosidad sísmica de Ecuador continental en términos de aceleración pico (PGA) y espectral SA (T= 1s) , en ambos casos para periodos de retorno (PR) de 475, 975 y 2475 años; 6) La estimación de espectros de peligrosidad uniforme (UHS) y sismos de control mediante desagregación de la peligrosidad, para PR de 475 y 2475 años en 4 capitales de provincia: Quito, Esmeraldas, Guayaquil y Loja. Una segunda parte del trabajo se destina al cálculo del riesgo sísmico en el Barrio Mariscal Sucre de Quito, lo que supone incidir ya a una escala municipal. Como principales contribuciones de este trabajo se destacan: 1) definición del escenario sísmico que más contribuye a la peligrosidad en Quito, que actuará como input de cálculo del riesgo; 2) caracterización de la acción sísmica asociada a ese escenario, incluyendo resultados de microzonación y efecto local en la zona de estudio; 3) Elaboración de una Base de Datos partiendo de información catastral e identificación de las tipologías dominantes; 4) Asignación de clases de vulnerabilidad y obtención de porcentajes de daño esperado en cada clase ante la acción sísmica definida previamente, con la consiguiente representación de mapas de vulnerabilidad y daño; 5) mapas de indicadores globales del riesgo sísmico; 6) Base de datos georreferenciada con toda la información generada en el estudio. Cabe destacar que el trabajo, aunque no formula nuevos métodos, si plantea una metodología integral de cálculo del riesgo sísmico, incorporando avances en cada fase abordada, desde la estimación de la peligrosidad o la definición de escenarios sísmicos con carácter hibrido (probabilista-determinista), hasta la asignación de vulnerabilidades y estimación de escenarios de daño. Esta tesis trata de presentar contribuciones hacia el mejor conocimiento de la peligrosidad sísmica en Ecuador y el riesgo sísmico en Quito, siendo uno de los primeros estudios de tesis que se desarrolla sobre estos temas en el país. El trabajo puede servir de ejemplo y punto de partida para estudios futuros; además de ser replicable en otras ciudades y municipios de Ecuador. -------------------- ABSTRACT: ------------------ This thesis first develops a study of seismic hazard in mainland Ecuador, following a zoned, probabilistic methodology. The study considers a regional scale and presents as main contributions: 1) The development of a State of Art on the Tectonics and Geology of Ecuador, concluding with the identification of the main seismic sources; 2) The creation of a Seismic Catalog project, collecting information from different agencies, which has been homogenized to Moment magnitude, Mw, purged from aftershocks and premonitories and corrected for the lack of completeness to estimate rates in different maggnitude ranges; 3) The proposal of a new seismic zoning, defining the seismogenic zones in three tectonic regimes: cortical, subduction interface and subduction in-slab; 4) The seismic characterization of each zone, estimating the parameters of recurrence and Maximum Magnitude (Mmax), considering the latter as a distribution of possible values, depending on the seismicity and tectonics, and after a thorough analysis of the existing data; 5) Seismic hazard maps of continental Ecuador in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral SA(T=1), and return periods (PR) of 475, 975 and 2475 years; 6) Uniform hazard spectra (UHS) and control earthquakes obtained by hazard disaggregation, for PR 475 and 2475 years in four provincial capitals: Quito, Esmeraldas, Guayaquil and Loja. The second section focuses on the calculation of seismic risk in the Quito Mariscal Sucre parish, which is already supposed to be influencing at a municipal level. The main contributions here are the: 1) Definition of the seismic scenario that contributes most to the hazard in Quito, which acts as an input in the risk calculation; 2) Characterization of the seismic action associated with that scenario, including results of micro-zoning and local effect in the study area; 3) Development of a database, based on cadastral data and identification of key typologies; 4) Allocation of vulnerability classes and obtaining percentages of damage expected in each class faced with the seismic action previously defined, with the consequent representation of maps of vulnerability and damage; 5) Global maps of seismic risk indicators; 6) Geo-referenced database with all the information generated in the study. It should be noted that although new methods are not prescribed, this study does set a comprehensive methodology for the calculation of seismic risk, incorporating advances in each phase approached, from the hazard estimation, or definition of seismic scenarios applying a hybrid (deterministic-probabilistic) method, to the allocation of vulnerabilities and estimation of damage scenarios. This thesis aims to present contributions leading to a better understanding of seismic hazard in Ecuador and seismic risk in Quito, and is one of the first studies in the country to develop such themes. This study can serve as an example and starting point for future studies, which could replicate this methodology in other cities and municipalities.