Impacts of projected maximum temperature extremes for C21 by an ensemble of regional climate models on cereal cropping systems in the Iberian Peninsula

Crops growing in the Iberian Peninsula may be subjected to damagingly high temperatures during the sensitive development periods of flowering and grain filling. Such episodes are considered important hazards and farmers may take insurance to offset their impact. Increases in value and frequency of maximum temperature have been observed in the Iberian Peninsula during the 20th century, and studies on climate change indicate the possibility of further increase by the end of the 21st century. Here, impacts of current and future high temperatures on cereal cropping systems of the Iberian Peninsula are evaluated, focusing on vulnerable development periods of winter and summer crops. Climate change scenarios obtained from an ensemble of ten Regional Climate Models (multimodel ensemble) combined with crop simulation models were used for this purpose and related uncertainty was estimated. Results reveal that higher extremes of maximum temperature represent a threat to summer-grown but not to winter-grown crops in the Iberian Peninsula. The study highlights the different vulnerability of crops in the two growing seasons and the need to account for changes in extreme temperatures in developing adaptations in cereal cropping systems. Finally, this work contributes to clarifying the causes of high-uncertainty impact projections from previous studies.

Extreme temperature events analyzed with Fast Fourier Transform

Extreme weather and climate events have received increased attention in the last few years, due to the often large loss of agriculture business and exponentially increasing costs associated with them and insurance planning. This increased attention raises the question as to whether extreme weather and climate events are truly increasing, whether this is only a perceived increase exacerbated by enhanced media coverage, or both. There are a number of ways extreme climate events can be defined, such as extreme daily temperatures, extreme daily rainfall amounts, and large areas experiencing unusually warm monthly temperatures, among others. In this study, we will focus our attention in frost and heatstroke events measuring it as the number of days under 0 ºC and number of days with daily maximum over 30ºC monthly respectively. We have studied the trends in these extreme events applying a Fast Fourier Transform to the series to clarify the tendency. Lack of long-term climate data suitable for analysis of extremes is the single biggest obstacle to quantifying whether extreme events have changed over the twentieth century, including high temporal and spatial resolution observations of temperatures. However, several series have been grouped in different ways: chosen the longest series independently, by provinces, by main watersheds and altitude. On the other hand, synthetic series generated by Luna and Balairón (AEMet) were also analyzed. The results obtained by different pooling data are discussed concluding the difficulties to assess the extreme events tendencies and high regional variation in the trends.