Modelización de series temporales complejas: de las redes de telecomunicación a los mercados financieros

Este trabajo aborda el problema de modelizar sistemas din´amicos reales a partir del estudio de sus series temporales, usando una formulaci´on est´andar que pretende ser una abstracci´on universal de los sistemas din´amicos, independientemente de su naturaleza determinista, estoc´astica o h´ıbrida. Se parte de modelizaciones separadas de sistemas deterministas por un lado y estoc´asticos por otro, para converger finalmente en un modelo h´ıbrido que permite estudiar sistemas gen´ericos mixtos, esto es, que presentan una combinaci´on de comportamiento determinista y aleatorio. Este modelo consta de dos componentes, uno determinista consistente en una ecuaci´on en diferencias, obtenida a partir de un estudio de autocorrelaci´on, y otro estoc´astico que modeliza el error cometido por el primero. El componente estoc´astico es un generador universal de distribuciones de probabilidad, basado en un proceso compuesto de variables aleatorias, uniformemente distribuidas en un intervalo variable en el tiempo. Este generador universal es deducido en la tesis a partir de una nueva teor´ıa sobre la oferta y la demanda de un recurso gen´erico. El modelo resultante puede formularse conceptualmente como una entidad con tres elementos fundamentales: un motor generador de din´amica determinista, una fuente interna de ruido generadora de incertidumbre y una exposici´on al entorno que representa las interacciones del sistema real con el mundo exterior. En las aplicaciones estos tres elementos se ajustan en base al hist´orico de las series temporales del sistema din´amico. Una vez ajustados sus componentes, el modelo se comporta de una forma adaptativa tomando como inputs los nuevos valores de las series temporales del sistema y calculando predicciones sobre su comportamiento futuro. Cada predicci´on se presenta como un intervalo dentro del cual cualquier valor es equipro- bable, teniendo probabilidad nula cualquier valor externo al intervalo. De esta forma el modelo computa el comportamiento futuro y su nivel de incertidumbre en base al estado actual del sistema. Se ha aplicado el modelo en esta tesis a sistemas muy diferentes mostrando ser muy flexible para afrontar el estudio de campos de naturaleza dispar. El intercambio de tr´afico telef´onico entre operadores de telefon´ıa, la evoluci´on de mercados financieros y el flujo de informaci´on entre servidores de Internet son estudiados en profundidad en la tesis. Todos estos sistemas son modelizados de forma exitosa con un mismo lenguaje, a pesar de tratarse de sistemas f´ısicos totalmente distintos. El estudio de las redes de telefon´ıa muestra que los patrones de tr´afico telef´onico presentan una fuerte pseudo-periodicidad semanal contaminada con una gran cantidad de ruido, sobre todo en el caso de llamadas internacionales. El estudio de los mercados financieros muestra por su parte que la naturaleza fundamental de ´estos es aleatoria con un rango de comportamiento relativamente acotado. Una parte de la tesis se dedica a explicar algunas de las manifestaciones emp´ıricas m´as importantes en los mercados financieros como son los “fat tails”, “power laws” y “volatility clustering”. Por ´ultimo se demuestra que la comunicaci´on entre servidores de Internet tiene, al igual que los mercados financieros, una componente subyacente totalmente estoc´astica pero de comportamiento bastante “d´ocil”, siendo esta docilidad m´as acusada a medida que aumenta la distancia entre servidores. Dos aspectos son destacables en el modelo, su adaptabilidad y su universalidad. El primero es debido a que, una vez ajustados los par´ametros generales, el modelo se “alimenta” de los valores observables del sistema y es capaz de calcular con ellos comportamientos futuros. A pesar de tener unos par´ametros fijos, la variabilidad en los observables que sirven de input al modelo llevan a una gran riqueza de ouputs posibles. El segundo aspecto se debe a la formulaci´on gen´erica del modelo h´ıbrido y a que sus par´ametros se ajustan en base a manifestaciones externas del sistema en estudio, y no en base a sus caracter´ısticas f´ısicas. Estos factores hacen que el modelo pueda utilizarse en gran variedad de campos. Por ´ultimo, la tesis propone en su parte final otros campos donde se han obtenido ´exitos preliminares muy prometedores como son la modelizaci´on del riesgo financiero, los algoritmos de routing en redes de telecomunicaci´on y el cambio clim´atico. Abstract This work faces the problem of modeling dynamical systems based on the study of its time series, by using a standard language that aims to be an universal abstraction of dynamical systems, irrespective of their deterministic, stochastic or hybrid nature. Deterministic and stochastic models are developed separately to be merged subsequently into a hybrid model, which allows the study of generic systems, that is to say, those having both deterministic and random behavior. This model is a combination of two different components. One of them is deterministic and consisting in an equation in differences derived from an auto-correlation study and the other is stochastic and models the errors made by the deterministic one. The stochastic component is an universal generator of probability distributions based on a process consisting in random variables distributed uniformly within an interval varying in time. This universal generator is derived in the thesis from a new theory of offer and demand for a generic resource. The resulting model can be visualized as an entity with three fundamental elements: an engine generating deterministic dynamics, an internal source of noise generating uncertainty and an exposure to the environment which depicts the interactions between the real system and the external world. In the applications these three elements are adjusted to the history of the time series from the dynamical system. Once its components have been adjusted, the model behaves in an adaptive way by using the new time series values from the system as inputs and calculating predictions about its future behavior. Every prediction is provided as an interval, where any inner value is equally probable while all outer ones have null probability. So, the model computes the future behavior and its level of uncertainty based on the current state of the system. The model is applied to quite different systems in this thesis, showing to be very flexible when facing the study of fields with diverse nature. The exchange of traffic between telephony operators, the evolution of financial markets and the flow of information between servers on the Internet are deeply studied in this thesis. All these systems are successfully modeled by using the same “language”, in spite the fact that they are systems physically radically different. The study of telephony networks shows that the traffic patterns are strongly weekly pseudo-periodic but mixed with a great amount of noise, specially in the case of international calls. It is proved that the underlying nature of financial markets is random with a moderate range of variability. A part of this thesis is devoted to explain some of the most important empirical observations in financial markets, such as “fat tails”, “power laws” and “volatility clustering”. Finally it is proved that the communication between two servers on the Internet has, as in the case of financial markets, an underlaying random dynamics but with a narrow range of variability, being this lack of variability more marked as the distance between servers is increased. Two aspects of the model stand out as being the most important: its adaptability and its universality. The first one is due to the fact that once the general parameters have been adjusted , the model is “fed” on the observable manifestations of the system in order to calculate its future behavior. Despite the fact that the model has fixed parameters the variability in the observable manifestations of the system, which are used as inputs of the model, lead to a great variability in the possible outputs. The second aspect is due to the general “language” used in the formulation of the hybrid model and to the fact that its parameters are adjusted based on external manifestations of the system under study instead of its physical characteristics. These factors made the model suitable to be used in great variety of fields. Lastly, this thesis proposes other fields in which preliminary and promising results have been obtained, such as the modeling of financial risk, the development of routing algorithms for telecommunication networks and the assessment of climate change.

Instabilities in two-liquid layers subject to a horizontal temperature gradient

We study theoretically the stability of two superposed fluid layers heated laterally. The fluids are supposed to be immiscible, the interface undeformable and of infinite horizontal extension. Combined thermocapillary and buoyancy forces give rise to a basic flow when a temperature difference is applied. The calculations are performed for a melt of GaAs under a layer of molten B2 O3 , a configuration of considerable technological importance. Four dif- ferent flow patterns and five temperature configurations are found for the basic state in this system. A linear stability analysis shows that the basic state may be destabilized by oscilla- tory motions leading to the so-called hydrothermal waves. Depending on the relative height of the two layers these hydrothermal waves propagate parallel or perpendicular to the temperature gradient. This analysis reveals that these perturbations can alter significantly the liquid flow in the liquid-encapsulated crystal growth techniques.

Un algoritmo de replanificación en tiempo real basado en un índice de estabilidad de Lyapunov para líneas de metro

(SPA) En este trabajo, se propone un nuevo índice basado en el método directo de Lyapunov para el diseño de un algoritmo de reprogramación en tiempo real para líneas de metro. En este estudio se utiliza una versión modificada de un modelo de espacio de estados en tiempo real discreto, que considera los efectos de saturación en la línea de metro. Una vez que el modelo de espacio de estados se ha obtenido, el método directo de Lyapunov se aplica con el fin de analizar la estabilidad del sistema de la línea de metro. Como resultado de este análisis no sólo se propone un nuevo índice de estabilidad, sino también la creación de tres zonas de estabilidad para indicar el estado actual del sistema. Finalmente, se presenta un nuevo algoritmo que permite la reprogramación del calendario de los trenes en tiempo real en presencia de perturbaciones medianas. (ENG) A new Lyapunov-based index for designing a rescheduling algorithm in real time for metro lines has been proposed in this paper. A modified real time discrete space state model which considers saturation effects in the metro line has been utilized in this study. Once the space state model has been obtained, the direct method of Lyapunov is applied in order to analyze the stability of the metro line system. As a result of this analysis not only a new stability index is proposed, but also the establishment of three stability zones to indicate the current state of the system. Finally, a new algorithm which allows the rescheduling of the timetable in the real time of the trains under presence of medium disturbances has been presented.

Output Impedance Correction Circuit (OICC): A New Concept to Improve the Dynamic Response of DC/DC Converters with Additional Energy Path

El desarrollo da las nuevas tecnologías permite a los ingenieros llevar al límite el funcionamiento de los circuitos integrados (Integrated Circuits, IC). Las nuevas generaciones de procesadores, DSPs o FPGAs son capaces de procesar la información a una alta velocidad, con un alto consumo de energía, o esperar en modo de baja potencia con el mínimo consumo posible. Esta gran variación en el consumo de potencia y el corto tiempo necesario para cambiar de un nivel al otro, afecta a las especificaciones del Módulo de Regulador de Tensión (Voltage Regulated Module, VRM) que alimenta al IC. Además, las características adicionales obligatorias, tales como adaptación del nivel de tensión (Adaptive Voltage Positioning, AVP) y escalado dinámico de la tensión (Dynamic Voltage Scaling, DVS), imponen requisitos opuestas en el diseño de la etapa de potencia del VRM. Para poder soportar las altas variaciones de los escalones de carga, el condensador de filtro de salida del VRM se ha de sobredimensionar, penalizando la densidad de energía y el rendimiento durante la operación de DVS. Por tanto, las actuales tendencias de investigación se centran en mejorar la respuesta dinámica del VRM, mientras se reduce el tamaño del condensador de salida. La reducción del condensador de salida lleva a menor coste y una prolongación de la vida del sistema ya que se podría evitar el uso de condensadores voluminosos, normalmente implementados con condensadores OSCON. Una ventaja adicional es que reduciendo el condensador de salida, el DVS se puede realizar más rápido y con menor estrés de la etapa de potencia, ya que la cantidad de carga necesaria para cambiar la tensión de salida es menor. El comportamiento dinámico del sistema con un control lineal (Control Modo Tensión, VMC, o Control Corriente de Pico, Peak Current Mode Control, PCMC,…) está limitado por la frecuencia de conmutación del convertidor y por el tamaño del filtro de salida. La reducción del condensador de salida se puede lograr incrementando la frecuencia de conmutación, así como incrementando el ancho de banda del sistema, y/o aplicando controles avanzados no-lineales. Usando esos controles, las variables del estado se saturan para conseguir el nuevo régimen permanente en un tiempo mínimo, así como el filtro de salida, más específicamente la pendiente de la corriente de la bobina, define la respuesta de la tensión de salida. Por tanto, reduciendo la inductancia de la bobina de salida, la corriente de bobina llega más rápido al nuevo régimen permanente, por lo que una menor cantidad de carga es tomada del condensador de salida durante el tránsito. El inconveniente de esa propuesta es que el rendimiento del sistema es penalizado debido al incremento de pérdidas de conmutación y las corrientes RMS. Para conseguir tanto la reducción del condensador de salida como el alto rendimiento del sistema, mientras se satisfacen las estrictas especificaciones dinámicas, un convertidor multifase es adoptado como estándar para aplicaciones VRM. Para asegurar el reparto de las corrientes entre fases, el convertidor multifase se suele implementar con control de modo de corriente. Para superar la limitación impuesta por el filtro de salida, la segunda posibilidad para reducir el condensador de salida es aplicar alguna modificación topológica (Topologic modifications) de la etapa básica de potencia para incrementar la pendiente de la corriente de bobina y así reducir la duración de tránsito. Como el transitorio se ha reducido, una menor cantidad de carga es tomada del condensador de salida bajo el mismo escalón de la corriente de salida, con lo cual, el condensador de salida se puede reducir para lograr la misma desviación de la tensión de salida. La tercera posibilidad para reducir el condensador de salida del convertidor es introducir un camino auxiliar de energía (additional energy path, AEP) para compensar el desequilibrio de la carga del condensador de salida reduciendo consecuentemente la duración del transitorio y la desviación de la tensión de salida. De esta manera, durante el régimen permanente, el sistema tiene un alto rendimiento debido a que el convertidor principal con bajo ancho de banda es diseñado para trabajar con una frecuencia de conmutación moderada para conseguir requisitos estáticos. Por otro lado, el comportamiento dinámico durante los transitorios es determinado por el AEP con un alto ancho de banda. El AEP puede ser implementado como un camino resistivo, como regulador lineal (Linear regulator, LR) o como un convertidor conmutado. Las dos primeras implementaciones proveen un mayor ancho de banda, acosta del incremento de pérdidas durante el transitorio. Por otro lado, la implementación del convertidor computado presenta menor ancho de banda, limitado por la frecuencia de conmutación, aunque produce menores pérdidas comparado con las dos anteriores implementaciones. Dependiendo de la aplicación, la implementación y la estrategia de control del sistema, hay una variedad de soluciones propuestas en el Estado del Arte (State-of-the-Art, SoA), teniendo diferentes propiedades donde una solución ofrece más ventajas que las otras, pero también unas desventajas. En general, un sistema con AEP ideal debería tener las siguientes propiedades: 1. El impacto del AEP a las pérdidas del sistema debería ser mínimo. A lo largo de la operación, el AEP genera pérdidas adicionales, con lo cual, en el caso ideal, el AEP debería trabajar por un pequeño intervalo de tiempo, solo durante los tránsitos; la otra opción es tener el AEP constantemente activo pero, por la compensación del rizado de la corriente de bobina, se generan pérdidas innecesarias. 2. El AEP debería ser activado inmediatamente para minimizar la desviación de la tensión de salida. Para conseguir una activación casi instantánea, el sistema puede ser informado por la carga antes del escalón o el sistema puede observar la corriente del condensador de salida, debido a que es la primera variable del estado que actúa a la perturbación de la corriente de salida. De esa manera, el AEP es activado con casi cero error de la tensión de salida, logrando una menor desviación de la tensión de salida. 3. El AEP debería ser desactivado una vez que el nuevo régimen permanente es detectado para evitar los transitorios adicionales de establecimiento. La mayoría de las soluciones de SoA estiman la duración del transitorio, que puede provocar un transitorio adicional si la estimación no se ha hecho correctamente (por ejemplo, si la corriente de bobina del convertidor principal tiene un nivel superior o inferior al necesitado, el regulador lento del convertidor principal tiene que compensar esa diferencia una vez que el AEP es desactivado). Otras soluciones de SoA observan las variables de estado, asegurando que el sistema llegue al nuevo régimen permanente, o pueden ser informadas por la carga. 4. Durante el transitorio, como mínimo un subsistema, o bien el convertidor principal o el AEP, debería operar en el lazo cerrado. Implementando un sistema en el lazo cerrado, preferiblemente el subsistema AEP por su ancho de banda elevado, se incrementa la robustez del sistema a los parásitos. Además, el AEP puede operar con cualquier tipo de corriente de carga. Las soluciones que funcionan en el lazo abierto suelen preformar el control de balance de carga con mínimo tiempo, así reducen la duración del transitorio y tienen un impacto menor a las pérdidas del sistema. Por otro lado, esas soluciones demuestran una alta sensibilidad a las tolerancias y parásitos de los componentes. 5. El AEP debería inyectar la corriente a la salida en una manera controlada, así se reduce el riesgo de unas corrientes elevadas y potencialmente peligrosas y se incrementa la robustez del sistema bajo las perturbaciones de la tensión de entrada. Ese problema suele ser relacionado con los sistemas donde el AEP es implementado como un convertidor auxiliar. El convertidor auxiliar es diseñado para una potencia baja, con lo cual, los dispositivos elegidos son de baja corriente/potencia. Si la corriente no es controlada, bajo un pico de tensión de entrada provocada por otro parte del sistema (por ejemplo, otro convertidor conectado al mismo bus), se puede llegar a un pico en la corriente auxiliar que puede causar la perturbación de tensión de salida e incluso el fallo de los dispositivos del convertidor auxiliar. Sin embargo, cuando la corriente es controlada, usando control del pico de corriente o control con histéresis, la corriente auxiliar tiene el control con prealimentación (feed-forward) de tensión de entrada y la corriente es definida y limitada. Por otro lado, si la solución utiliza el control de balance de carga, el sistema puede actuar de forma deficiente si la tensión de entrada tiene un valor diferente del nominal, provocando que el AEP inyecta/toma más/menos carga que necesitada. 6. Escalabilidad del sistema a convertidores multifase. Como ya ha sido comentado anteriormente, para las aplicaciones VRM por la corriente de carga elevada, el convertidor principal suele ser implementado como multifase para distribuir las perdidas entre las fases y bajar el estrés térmico de los dispositivos. Para asegurar el reparto de las corrientes, normalmente un control de modo corriente es usado. Las soluciones de SoA que usan VMC son limitadas a la implementación con solo una fase. Esta tesis propone un nuevo método de control del flujo de energía por el AEP y el convertidor principal. El concepto propuesto se basa en la inyección controlada de la corriente auxiliar al nodo de salida donde la amplitud de la corriente es n-1 veces mayor que la corriente del condensador de salida con las direcciones apropiadas. De esta manera, el AEP genera un condensador virtual cuya capacidad es n veces mayor que el condensador físico y reduce la impedancia de salida. Como el concepto propuesto reduce la impedancia de salida usando el AEP, el concepto es llamado Output Impedance Correction Circuit (OICC) concept. El concepto se desarrolla para un convertidor tipo reductor síncrono multifase con control modo de corriente CMC (incluyendo e implementación con una fase) y puede operar con la tensión de salida constante o con AVP. Además, el concepto es extendido a un convertidor de una fase con control modo de tensión VMC. Durante la operación, el control de tensión de salida de convertidor principal y control de corriente del subsistema OICC están siempre cerrados, incrementando la robustez a las tolerancias de componentes y a los parásitos del cirquito y permitiendo que el sistema se pueda enfrentar a cualquier tipo de la corriente de carga. Según el método de control propuesto, el sistema se puede encontrar en dos estados: durante el régimen permanente, el sistema se encuentra en el estado Idle y el subsistema OICC esta desactivado. Por otro lado, durante el transitorio, el sistema se encuentra en estado Activo y el subsistema OICC está activado para reducir la impedancia de salida. El cambio entre los estados se hace de forma autónoma: el sistema entra en el estado Activo observando la corriente de condensador de salida y vuelve al estado Idle cunado el nuevo régimen permanente es detectado, observando las variables del estado. La validación del concepto OICC es hecha aplicándolo a un convertidor tipo reductor síncrono con dos fases y de 30W cuyo condensador de salida tiene capacidad de 140μF, mientras el factor de multiplicación n es 15, generando en el estado Activo el condensador virtual de 2.1mF. El subsistema OICC es implementado como un convertidor tipo reductor síncrono con PCMC. Comparando el funcionamiento del convertidor con y sin el OICC, los resultados demuestran que se ha logrado una reducción de la desviación de tensión de salida con factor 12, tanto con funcionamiento básico como con funcionamiento AVP. Además, los resultados son comparados con un prototipo de referencia que tiene la misma etapa de potencia y un condensador de salida físico de 2.1mF. Los resultados demuestran que los dos sistemas tienen el mismo comportamiento dinámico. Más aun, se ha cuantificado el impacto en las pérdidas del sistema operando bajo una corriente de carga pulsante y bajo DVS. Se demuestra que el sistema con OICC mejora el rendimiento del sistema, considerando las pérdidas cuando el sistema trabaja con la carga pulsante y con DVS. Por lo último, el condensador de salida de sistema con OICC es mucho más pequeño que el condensador de salida del convertidor de referencia, con lo cual, por usar el concepto OICC, la densidad de energía se incrementa. En resumen, las contribuciones principales de la tesis son: • El concepto propuesto de Output Impedance Correction Circuit (OICC), • El control a nivel de sistema basado en el método usado para cambiar los estados de operación, • La implementación del subsistema OICC en lazo cerrado conjunto con la implementación del convertidor principal, • La cuantificación de las perdidas dinámicas bajo la carga pulsante y bajo la operación DVS, y • La robustez del sistema bajo la variación del condensador de salida y bajo los escalones de carga consecutiva. ABSTRACT Development of new technologies allows engineers to push the performance of the integrated circuits to its limits. New generations of processors, DSPs or FPGAs are able to process information with high speed and high consumption or to wait in low power mode with minimum possible consumption. This huge variation in power consumption and the short time needed to change from one level to another, affect the specifications of the Voltage Regulated Module (VRM) that supplies the IC. Furthermore, additional mandatory features, such as Adaptive Voltage Positioning (AVP) and Dynamic Voltage Scaling (DVS), impose opposite trends on the design of the VRM power stage. In order to cope with high load-step amplitudes, the output capacitor of the VRM power stage output filter is drastically oversized, penalizing power density and the efficiency during the DVS operation. Therefore, the ongoing research trend is directed to improve the dynamic response of the VRM while reducing the size of the output capacitor. The output capacitor reduction leads to a smaller cost and longer life-time of the system since the big bulk capacitors, usually implemented with OSCON capacitors, may not be needed to achieve the desired dynamic behavior. An additional advantage is that, by reducing the output capacitance, dynamic voltage scaling (DVS) can be performed faster and with smaller stress on the power stage, since the needed amount of charge to change the output voltage is smaller. The dynamic behavior of the system with a linear control (Voltage mode control, VMC, Peak Current Mode Control, PCMC,…) is limited by the converter switching frequency and filter size. The reduction of the output capacitor can be achieved by increasing the switching frequency of the converter, thus increasing the bandwidth of the system, and/or by applying advanced non-linear controls. Applying nonlinear control, the system variables get saturated in order to reach the new steady-state in a minimum time, thus the output filter, more specifically the output inductor current slew-rate, determines the output voltage response. Therefore, by reducing the output inductor value, the inductor current reaches faster the new steady state, so a smaller amount of charge is taken from the output capacitor during the transient. The drawback of this approach is that the system efficiency is penalized due to increased switching losses and RMS currents. In order to achieve both the output capacitor reduction and high system efficiency, while satisfying strict dynamic specifications, a Multiphase converter system is adopted as a standard for VRM applications. In order to ensure the current sharing among the phases, the multiphase converter is usually implemented with current mode control. In order to overcome the limitation imposed by the output filter, the second possibility to reduce the output capacitor is to apply Topologic modifications of the basic power stage topology in order to increase the slew-rate of the inductor current and, therefore, reduce the transient duration. Since the transient is reduced, smaller amount of charge is taken from the output capacitor under the same load current, thus, the output capacitor can be reduced to achieve the same output voltage deviation. The third possibility to reduce the output capacitor of the converter is to introduce an additional energy path (AEP) to compensate the charge unbalance of the output capacitor, consequently reducing the transient time and output voltage deviation. Doing so, during the steady-state operation the system has high efficiency because the main low-bandwidth converter is designed to operate at moderate switching frequency, to meet the static requirements, whereas the dynamic behavior during the transients is determined by the high-bandwidth auxiliary energy path. The auxiliary energy path can be implemented as a resistive path, as a Linear regulator, LR, or as a switching converter. The first two implementations provide higher bandwidth, at the expense of increasing losses during the transient. On the other hand, the switching converter implementation presents lower bandwidth, limited by the auxiliary converter switching frequency, though it produces smaller losses compared to the two previous implementations. Depending on the application, the implementation and the control strategy of the system, there is a variety of proposed solutions in the State-of-the-Art (SoA), having different features where one solution offers some advantages over the others, but also some disadvantages. In general, an ideal additional energy path system should have the following features: 1. The impact on the system losses should be minimal. During its operation, the AEP generates additional losses, thus ideally, the AEP should operate for a short period of time, only when the transient is occurring; the other option is to have the AEP constantly on, but due to the inductor current ripple compensation at the output, unnecessary losses are generated. 2. The AEP should be activated nearly instantaneously to prevent bigger output voltage deviation. To achieve near instantaneous activation, the converter system can be informed by the load prior to the load-step or the system can observe the output capacitor current, which is the first system state variable that reacts on the load current perturbation. In this manner, the AEP is turned on with near zero output voltage error, providing smaller output voltage deviation. 3. The AEP should be deactivated once the new steady state is reached to avoid additional settling transients. Most of the SoA solutions estimate duration of the transient which may cause additional transient if the estimation is not performed correctly (e.g. if the main converter inductor current has higher or lower value than needed, the slow regulator of the main converter needs to compensate the difference after the AEP is deactivated). Other SoA solutions are observing state variables, ensuring that the system reaches the new steady state or they are informed by the load. 4. During the transient, at least one subsystem, either the main converter or the AEP, should be in closed-loop. Implementing a closed loop system, preferably the AEP subsystem, due its higher bandwidth, increases the robustness under system tolerances and circuit parasitic. In addition, the AEP can operate with any type of load. The solutions that operate in open loop usually perform minimum time charge balance control, thus reducing the transient length and minimizing the impact on the losses, however they are very sensitive to tolerances and parasitics. 5. The AEP should inject current at the output in a controlled manner, thus reducing the risk of high and potentially damaging currents and increasing robustness on the input voltage deviation. This issue is mainly related to the systems where AEP is implemented as auxiliary converter. The auxiliary converter is designed for small power and, as such, the MOSFETs are rated for small power/currents. If the current is not controlled, due to the some unpredicted spike in input voltage caused by some other part of the system (e.g. different converter), it may lead to a current spike in auxiliary current which will cause the perturbation of the output voltage and even failure of the switching components of auxiliary converter. In the case when the current is controlled, using peak CMC or Hysteretic Window CMC, the auxiliary converter has inherent feed-forwarding of the input voltage in current control and the current is defined and limited. Furthermore, if the solution employs charge balance control, the system may perform poorly if the input voltage has different value than the nominal, causing that AEP injects/extracts more/less charge than needed. 6. Scalability of the system to multiphase converters. As commented previously, in VRM applications, due to the high load currents, the main converters are implemented as multiphase to redistribute losses among the modules, lowering temperature stress of the components. To ensure the current sharing, usually a Current Mode Control (CMC) is employed. The SoA solutions that are implemented with VMC are limited to a single stage implementation. This thesis proposes a novel control method of the energy flow through the AEP and the main converter system. The proposed concept relays on a controlled injection of the auxiliary current at the output node where the instantaneous current value is n-1 times bigger than the output capacitor current with appropriate directions. Doing so, the AEP creates an equivalent n times bigger virtual capacitor at the output, thus reducing the output impedance. Due to the fact that the proposed concept reduces the output impedance using the AEP, it has been named the Output Impedance Correction Circuit (OICC) concept. The concept is developed for a multiphase CMC synchronous buck converter (including a single phase implementation), operating with a constant output voltage and with AVP feature. Further, it is extended to a single phase VMC synchronous buck converter. During the operation, the main converter voltage loop and the OICC subsystem capacitor current loop is constantly closed, increasing the robustness under system tolerances and circuit parasitic and allowing the system to operate with any load-current shape or pattern. According to the proposed control method, the system operates in two states: during the steady-state the system is in the Idle state and the OICC subsystem is deactivated, while during the load-step transient the system is in the Active state and the OICC subsystem is activated in order to reduce the output impedance. The state changes are performed autonomously: the system enters in the Active state by observing the output capacitor current and it returns back to the Idle state when the steady-state operation is detected by observing the state variables. The validation of the OICC concept has been done by applying it to a 30W two phase synchronous buck converter with 140μF output capacitor and with the multiplication factor n equal to 15, generating during the Active state equivalent output capacitor of 2.1mF. The OICC subsystem is implemented as single phase PCMC synchronous buck converter. Comparing the converter operation with and without the OICC the results demonstrate that the 12 times reduction of the output voltage deviation is achieved, for both basic operation and for the AVP operation. Furthermore, the results have been compared to a reference prototype which has the same power stage and a fiscal output capacitor of 2.1mF. The results show that the two systems have the same dynamic behavior. Moreover, an impact on the system losses under the pulsating load and DVS operation has been quantified and it has been demonstrated that the OICC system has improved the system efficiency, considering the losses when the system operates with the pulsating load and the DVS operation. Lastly, the output capacitor of the OICC system is much smaller than the reference design output capacitor, therefore, by applying the OICC concept the power density can be increased. In summary, the main contributions of the thesis are: • The proposed Output Impedance Correction Circuit (OICC) concept, • The system level control based on the used approach to change the states of operation, • The OICC subsystem closed-loop implementation, together with the main converter implementation, • The dynamic losses under the pulsating load and the DVS operation quantification, and • The system robustness on the capacitor impedance variation and consecutive load-steps.

Engineering Computational Emotion - A Reference Model for Emotion in Artificial Systems

Emotion is generally argued to be an influence on the behavior of life systems, largely concerning flexibility and adaptivity. The way in which life systems acts in response to a particular situations of the environment, has revealed the decisive and crucial importance of this feature in the success of behaviors. And this source of inspiration has influenced the way of thinking artificial systems. During the last decades, artificial systems have undergone such an evolution that each day more are integrated in our daily life. They have become greater in complexity, and the subsequent effects are related to an increased demand of systems that ensure resilience, robustness, availability, security or safety among others. All of them questions that raise quite a fundamental challenges in control design. This thesis has been developed under the framework of the Autonomous System project, a.k.a the ASys-Project. Short-term objectives of immediate application are focused on to design improved systems, and the approaching of intelligence in control strategies. Besides this, long-term objectives underlying ASys-Project concentrate on high order capabilities such as cognition, awareness and autonomy. This thesis is placed within the general fields of Engineery and Emotion science, and provides a theoretical foundation for engineering and designing computational emotion for artificial systems. The starting question that has grounded this thesis aims the problem of emotion--based autonomy. And how to feedback systems with valuable meaning has conformed the general objective. Both the starting question and the general objective, have underlaid the study of emotion, the influence on systems behavior, the key foundations that justify this feature in life systems, how emotion is integrated within the normal operation, and how this entire problem of emotion can be explained in artificial systems. By assuming essential differences concerning structure, purpose and operation between life and artificial systems, the essential motivation has been the exploration of what emotion solves in nature to afterwards analyze analogies for man--made systems. This work provides a reference model in which a collection of entities, relationships, models, functions and informational artifacts, are all interacting to provide the system with non-explicit knowledge under the form of emotion-like relevances. This solution aims to provide a reference model under which to design solutions for emotional operation, but related to the real needs of artificial systems. The proposal consists of a multi-purpose architecture that implement two broad modules in order to attend: (a) the range of processes related to the environment affectation, and (b) the range or processes related to the emotion perception-like and the higher levels of reasoning. This has required an intense and critical analysis beyond the state of the art around the most relevant theories of emotion and technical systems, in order to obtain the required support for those foundations that sustain each model. The problem has been interpreted and is described on the basis of AGSys, an agent assumed with the minimum rationality as to provide the capability to perform emotional assessment. AGSys is a conceptualization of a Model-based Cognitive agent that embodies an inner agent ESys, the responsible of performing the emotional operation inside of AGSys. The solution consists of multiple computational modules working federated, and aimed at conforming a mutual feedback loop between AGSys and ESys. Throughout this solution, the environment and the effects that might influence over the system are described as different problems. While AGSys operates as a common system within the external environment, ESys is designed to operate within a conceptualized inner environment. And this inner environment is built on the basis of those relevances that might occur inside of AGSys in the interaction with the external environment. This allows for a high-quality separate reasoning concerning mission goals defined in AGSys, and emotional goals defined in ESys. This way, it is provided a possible path for high-level reasoning under the influence of goals congruence. High-level reasoning model uses knowledge about emotional goals stability, letting this way new directions in which mission goals might be assessed under the situational state of this stability. This high-level reasoning is grounded by the work of MEP, a model of emotion perception that is thought as an analogy of a well-known theory in emotion science. The work of this model is described under the operation of a recursive-like process labeled as R-Loop, together with a system of emotional goals that are assumed as individual agents. This way, AGSys integrates knowledge that concerns the relation between a perceived object, and the effect which this perception induces on the situational state of the emotional goals. This knowledge enables a high-order system of information that provides the sustain for a high-level reasoning. The extent to which this reasoning might be approached is just delineated and assumed as future work. This thesis has been studied beyond a long range of fields of knowledge. This knowledge can be structured into two main objectives: (a) the fields of psychology, cognitive science, neurology and biological sciences in order to obtain understanding concerning the problem of the emotional phenomena, and (b) a large amount of computer science branches such as Autonomic Computing (AC), Self-adaptive software, Self-X systems, Model Integrated Computing (MIC) or the paradigm of models@runtime among others, in order to obtain knowledge about tools for designing each part of the solution. The final approach has been mainly performed on the basis of the entire acquired knowledge, and described under the fields of Artificial Intelligence, Model-Based Systems (MBS), and additional mathematical formalizations to provide punctual understanding in those cases that it has been required. This approach describes a reference model to feedback systems with valuable meaning, allowing for reasoning with regard to (a) the relationship between the environment and the relevance of the effects on the system, and (b) dynamical evaluations concerning the inner situational state of the system as a result of those effects. And this reasoning provides a framework of distinguishable states of AGSys derived from its own circumstances, that can be assumed as artificial emotion.