Examining wheat yield sensitivity to temperature and precipitation changes for a large ensemble of crop models using impact response surfaces

Impact response surfaces (IRSs) depict the response of an impact variable to changes in two explanatory variables as a plotted surface. Here, IRSs of spring and winter wheat yields were constructed from a 25-member ensemble of process-based crop simulation models. Twenty-one models were calibrated by different groups using a common set of calibration data, with calibrations applied independently to the same models in three cases. The sensitivity of modelled yield to changes in temperature and precipitation was tested by systematically modifying values of 1981-2010 baseline weather data to span the range of 19 changes projected for the late 21st century at three locations in Europe.

Temperature and precipitation effects on wheat yield across a European transect: a crop model ensemble analysis using impact response surfaces

This study explored the utility of the impact response surface (IRS) approach for investigating model ensemble crop yield responses under a large range of changes in climate. IRSs of spring and winter wheat Triticum aestivum yields were constructed from a 26-member ensemble of process-based crop simulation models for sites in Finland, Germany and Spain across a latitudinal transect. The sensitivity of modelled yield to systematic increments of changes in temperature (-2 to +9°C) and precipitation (-50 to +50%) was tested by modifying values of baseline (1981 to 2010) daily weather, with CO2 concentration fixed at 360 ppm. The IRS approach offers an effective method of portraying model behaviour under changing climate as well as advantages for analysing, comparing and presenting results from multi-model ensemble simulations. Though individual model behaviour occasionally departed markedly from the average, ensemble median responses across sites and crop varieties indicated that yields decline with higher temperatures and decreased precipitation and increase with higher precipitation. Across the uncertainty ranges defined for the IRSs, yields were more sensitive to temperature than precipitation changes at the Finnish site while sensitivities were mixed at the German and Spanish sites. Precipitation effects diminished under higher temperature changes. While the bivariate and multi-model characteristics of the analysis impose some limits to interpretation, the IRS approach nonetheless provides additional insights into sensitivities to inter-model and inter-annual variability. Taken together, these sensitivities may help to pinpoint processes such as heat stress, vernalisation or drought effects requiring refinement in future model development.

Strategies for adapting maize to climate change and extreme temperatures in Andalusia, Spain

Climate projections indicate that rising temperatures will affect summer crops in the southern Iberian Peninsula. The aim of this study was to obtain projections of the impacts of rising temperatures, and of higher frequency of extreme events on irrigated maize, and to evaluate some adaptation strategies. The study was conducted at several locations in Andalusia using the CERES-Maize crop model, previously calibrated/validated with local experimental datasets. The simulated climate consisted of projections from regional climate models from the ENSEMBLES project; these were corrected for daily temperature and precipitation with regard to the E-OBS observational dataset. These bias-corrected projections were used with the CERES-Maize model to generate future impacts. Crop model results showed a decrease in maize yield by the end of the 21st century from 6 to 20%, a decrease of up to 25% in irrigation water requirements, and an increase in irrigation water productivity of up to 22%, due to earlier maturity dates and stomatal closure caused by CO2 increase. When adaptation strategies combining earlier sowing dates and cultivar changes were considered, impacts were compensated, and maize yield increased up to 14%, compared with the baseline period (1981-2010), with similar reductions in crop irrigation water requirements. Effects of extreme maximum temperatures rose to 40% at the end of the 21st century, compared with the baseline. Adaptation resulted in an overall reduction in extreme Tmax damages in all locations, with the exception of Granada, where losses were limited to 8%.

Temperature and Photoperiod Effects on Vicia faba Phenology Simulated by CROPGRO-Fababean

Models may be useful tools to design efficient crop management practices provided they are able to accurately simulate the effect of weather variables on crop performance. The objective of this work was to accurately simulate the effects of temperature and day length on the rate of vegetative node expression, time to flowering, time to first pod, and time to physiological maturity of faba bean (Vicia faba L.) using the CROPGRO-Fababean model. Field experiments with multiple sowing dates were conducted in northwest Spain during 3 yr (17 sowing dates: 12 used for calibration and five for validation). Observed daily minimum and maximum air temperatures were within the range of ?9.0 and 39.2°C and observed photoperiods within 10.1 to 16.6 h. Optimization of thermal models to predict leaf appearance raised the base temperature (Tb) from the commonly used value of 0.0 to 3.9°C. In addition, photothermal models detected a small accelerating effect of day length on the rate of leaf appearance. Accurate prediction of the flowering date required incorporating day length, but the solved Tb approached negative values, close to ?4°C. All the reproductive phases after flowering were affected only by temperature, but postanthesis Tb was also mayor que0°C and approached values close to 8°C for time to first pod set and 5.5°C for time from first pod to physiological maturity. Our data indicated that cardinal base temperatures are not the same across all phenological phases.

Climate Change and Restoration of Degraded Land

The United Nations Climate Change Conference, Durban 2011, delivered a breakthrough on the international community's response to climate change. In the second largest meeting of its kind, the negotiations advanced, in a balanced fashion, the implementation of the Convention and the Kyoto Protocol, the Bali Action Plan, and the Cancun Agreements. The outcomes included a decision by Parties to adopt a universal legal agreement on climate change as soon as possible, and no later than 2015. One of the decisions adopted by COP 17 and CMP 7 regard to the land use, land-use change and forestry, and invites the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to review and, if necessary, update supplementary methodologies for estimating anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions by sources and removals by sinks resulting from land use, land-use change and forestry activities under Article 3, paragraphs 3 and 4, of the Kyoto Protocol. Land degradation is a human-induced or natural process which negatively affects the productivity of land within an ecosystem. The direct causes of land degradation are geographically specific. Climate change, including changes in short-term variation, as well as long-term gradual changes in temperature and precipitation, is expected to be an additional stress on rates of land degradation. Book Topics: • Introduction to Climate Change and Land Degradation • Change Mitigation • Climate Change and Waste Land Restoration • Water Management and Planning • Erosion and Hydrological Restoration • Forest Fire Land Restoration • Polluted Soils Restoration • Combating Climate Change by Restoration of Degraded Land • Research Matters – Climate Change Governance • Advanced Statistics Climate Change and Restoration of Degraded Land is of interests to academics, engineers, consultans, designers and professionals involved in restoration of degraded lands projects.

Land cover dynamics and climate change implications on water resources in South Pacific Costa Rica

Water is fundamental to human life and the availability of freshwater is often a constraint on human welfare and economic development. Consequently, the potential effects of global changes on hydrology and water resources are considered among the most severe and vital ones. Water scarcity is one of the main problems in the rural communities of Central America, as a result of an important degradation of catchment areas and the over-exploitation of aquifers. The present Thesis is focused on two critical aspects of global changes over water resources: (1) the potential effects of climate change on water quantity and (2) the impacts of land cover and land use changes on the hydrological processes and water cycle. Costa Rica is among the few developing countries that have recently achieved a land use transition with a net increase in forest cover. Osa Region in South Pacific Costa Rica is an appealing study site to assess water supply management plans and to measure the effects of deforestation, forest transitions and climate change projections reported in the region. Rural Community Water Supply systems (ASADAS) in Osa are dealing with an increasing demand of freshwater due to the growing population and the change in the way of life in the rural livelihoods. Land cover mosaics which have resulted from the above mentioned processes are characterized by the abandonment of marginal farmland with the spread over these former grasslands of high return crops and the expansion of secondary forests due to reforestation initiatives. These land use changes have a significant impact on runoff generation in priority water-supply catchments in the humid tropics, as evidenced by the analysis of the Tinoco Experimental Catchment in the Southern Pacific area of Costa Rica. The monitoring system assesses the effects of the different land uses on the runoff responses and on the general water cycle of the basin. Runoff responses at plot scale are analyzed for secondary forests, oil palm plantations, forest plantations and grasslands. The Oil palm plantation plot presented the highest runoff coefficient (mean RC=32.6%), twice that measured under grasslands (mean RC=15.3%) and 20-fold greater than in secondary forest (mean RC=1.7%). A Thornthwaite-type water balance is proposed to assess the impact of land cover and climate change scenarios over water availability for rural communities in Osa Region. Climate change projections were obtained by the downscaling of BCM2, CNCM3 and ECHAM5 models. Precipitation and temperature were averaged and conveyed by the A1B, A2 and B1 IPCC climate scenario for 2030, 2060 and 2080. Precipitation simulations exhibit a positive increase during the dry season for the three scenarios and a decrease during the rainy season, with the highest magnitude (up to 25%) by the end of the 21st century under scenario B1. Monthly mean temperature simulations increase for the three scenarios throughout the year with a maximum increase during the dry season of 5% under A1B and A2 scenarios and 4% under B1 scenario. The Thornthwaite-type Water Balance model indicates important decreases of water surplus for the three climate scenarios during the rainy season, with a maximum decrease on May, which under A1B scenario drop up to 20%, under A2 up to 40% and under B1 scenario drop up to almost 60%. Land cover scenarios were created taking into account current land cover dynamics of the region. Land cover scenario 1 projects a deforestation situation, with forests decreasing up to 15% due to urbanization of the upper catchment areas; land cover scenario 2 projects a forest recovery situation where forested areas increase due to grassland abandonment on areas with more than 30% of slope. Deforestation scenario projects an annual water surplus decrease of 15% while the reforestation scenario projects a water surplus increase of almost 25%. This water balance analysis indicates that climate scenarios are equal contributors as land cover scenarios to future water resource estimations.

Water scarcity and climate change impact and vulnerability in irrigated agriculture in Mediterranean river basins

Actualmente, la escasez de agua constituye un importante problema en muchos lugares del mundo. El crecimiento de la población, la creciente necesidad de alimentos, el desarrollo socio-económico y el cambio climático ejercen una importante y cada vez mayor presión sobre los recursos hídricos, a la que muchos países van a tener que enfrentarse en los próximos anos. La región Mediterránea es una de las regiones del mundo de mayor escasez de recursos hídricos, y es además una de las zonas más vulnerables al cambio climático. La mayoría de estudios sobre cambio climático prevén mayores temperaturas y una disminución de las precipitaciones, y una creciente escasez de agua debida a la disminución de recursos disponibles y al aumento de las demandas de riego. En el contexto actual de desarrollo de políticas se demanda cada vez más una mayor consideración del cambio climático en el marco de las políticas sectoriales. Sin embargo, los estudios enfocados a un solo sector no reflejan las múltiples dimensiones del los efectos del cambio climático. Numerosos estudios científicos han demostrado que el cambio climático es un fenómeno de naturaleza multi-dimensional y cuyos efectos se transmiten a múltiples escalas. Por tanto, es necesaria la producción de estudios y herramientas de análisis capaces de reflejar todas estas dimensiones y que contribuyan a la elaboración de políticas robustas en un contexto de cambio climático. Esta investigación pretende aportar una visión global de la problemática de la escasez de agua y los impactos, la vulnerabilidad y la adaptación al cambio climático en el contexto de la región mediterránea. La investigación presenta un marco integrado de modelización que se va ampliando progresivamente en un proceso secuencial y multi-escalar en el que en cada etapa se incorpora una nueva dimensión. La investigación consta de cuatro etapas que se abordan a lo largo de cuatro capítulos. En primer lugar, se estudia la vulnerabilidad económica de las explotaciones de regadío del Medio Guadiana, en España. Para ello, se utiliza un modelo de programación matemática en combinación con un modelo econométrico. A continuación, en la segunda etapa, se utiliza un modelo hidro-económico que incluye un modelo de cultivo para analizar los procesos que tienen lugar a escala de cultivo, explotación y cuenca teniendo en cuenta distintas escalas geográficas y de toma de decisiones. Esta herramienta permite el análisis de escenarios de cambio climático y la evaluación de posibles medidas de adaptación. La tercera fase consiste en el análisis de las barreras que dificultan la aplicación de procesos de adaptación para lo cual se analizan las redes socio-institucionales en la cuenca. Finalmente, la cuarta etapa aporta una visión sobre la escasez de agua y el cambio climático a escala nacional y regional mediante el estudio de distintos escenarios de futuro plausibles y los posibles efectos de las políticas en la escasez de agua. Para este análisis se utiliza un modelo econométrico de datos de panel para la región mediterránea y un modelo hidro-económico que se aplica a los casos de estudio de España y Jordania. Los resultados del estudio ponen de relieve la importancia de considerar múltiples escalas y múltiples dimensiones en el estudio de la gestión de los recursos hídricos y la adaptación al cambio climático en los contextos mediterráneos de escasez de agua estudiados. Los resultados muestran que los impactos del cambio climático en la cuenca del Guadiana y en el conjunto de España pueden comprometer la sostenibilidad del regadío y de los ecosistemas. El análisis a escala de cuenca hidrográfica resalta la importancia de las interacciones entre los distintos usuarios del agua y en concreto entre distintas comunidades de regantes, así como la necesidad de fortalecer el papel de las instituciones y de fomentar la creación de una visión común en la cuenca para facilitar la aplicación de los procesos de adaptación. Asimismo, los resultados de este trabajo evidencian también la capacidad y el papel fundamental de las políticas para lograr un desarrollo sostenible y la adaptación al cambio climático es regiones de escasez de agua tales como la región mediterránea. Especialmente, este trabajo pone de manifiesto el potencial de la Directiva Marco del Agua de la Unión Europea para lograr una efectiva adaptación al cambio climático. Sin embargo, en Jordania, además de la adaptación al cambio climático, es preciso diseñar estrategias de desarrollo sostenible más ambiciosas que contribuyan a reducir el riesgo futuro de escasez de agua. ABSTRACT Water scarcity is becoming a major concern in many parts of the world. Population growth, increasing needs for food production, socio-economic development and climate change represent pressures on water resources that many countries around the world will have to deal in the coming years. The Mediterranean region is one of the most water scarce regions of the world and is considered a climate change hotspot. Most projections of climate change envisage an increase in temperatures and a decrease in precipitation and a resulting reduction in water resources availability as a consequence of both reduced water availability and increased irrigation demands. Current policy development processes require the integration of climate change concerns into sectoral policies. However, sector-oriented studies often fail to address all the dimensions of climate change implications. Climate change research in the last years has evidenced the need for more integrated studies and methodologies that are capable of addressing the multi-scale and multi-dimensional nature of climate change. This research attempts to provide a comprehensive view of water scarcity and climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation in Mediterranean contexts. It presents an integrated modelling framework that is progressively enlarged in a sequential multi-scale process in which a new dimension of climate change and water resources is addressed at every stage. It is comprised of four stages, each one explained in a different chapter. The first stage explores farm-level economic vulnerability in the Spanish Guadiana basin using a mathematical programming model in combination with an econometric model. Then, in a second stage, the use of a hydro-economic modelling framework that includes a crop growth model allows for the analysis of crop, farm and basin level processes taking into account different geographical and decision-making scales. This integrated tool is used for the analysis of climate change scenarios and for the assessment of potential adaptation options. The third stage includes the analysis of barriers to the effective implementation of adaptation processes based on socioinstitutional network analysis. Finally, a regional and country level perspective of water scarcity and climate change is provided focusing on different possible socio-economic development pathways and the effect of policies on future water scarcity. For this analysis, a panel-data econometric model and a hydro-economic model are applied for the analysis of the Mediterranean region and country level case studies in Spain and Jordan. The overall results of the study demonstrate the value of considering multiple scales and multiple dimensions in water management and climate change adaptation in the Mediterranean water scarce contexts analysed. Results show that climate change impacts in the Guadiana basin and in Spain may compromise the sustainability of irrigation systems and ecosystems. The analysis at the basin level highlights the prominent role of interactions between different water users and irrigation districts and the need to strengthen institutional capacity and common understanding in the basin to enhance the implementation of adaptation processes. The results of this research also illustrate the relevance of water policies in achieving sustainable development and climate change adaptation in water scarce areas such as the Mediterranean region. Specifically, the EU Water Framework Directive emerges as a powerful trigger for climate change adaptation. However, in Jordan, outreaching sustainable development strategies are required in addition to climate change adaptation to reduce future risk of water scarcity.

Technology and characterization of GaN-HEMTs devices: high temperature and trapping effects

Los transistores de alta movilidad electrónica basados en GaN han sido objeto de una extensa investigación ya que tanto el GaN como sus aleaciones presentan unas excelentes propiedades eléctricas (alta movilidad, elevada concentración de portadores y campo eléctrico crítico alto). Aunque recientemente se han incluido en algunas aplicaciones comerciales, su expansión en el mercado está condicionada a la mejora de varios asuntos relacionados con su rendimiento y habilidad. Durante esta tesis se han abordado algunos de estos aspectos relevantes; por ejemplo, la fabricación de enhancement mode HEMTs, su funcionamiento a alta temperatura, el auto calentamiento y el atrapamiento de carga. Los HEMTs normalmente apagado o enhancement mode han atraído la atención de la comunidad científica dedicada al desarrollo de circuitos amplificadores y conmutadores de potencia, ya que su utilización disminuiría significativamente el consumo de potencia; además de requerir solamente una tensión de alimentación negativa, y reducir la complejidad del circuito y su coste. Durante esta tesis se han evaluado varias técnicas utilizadas para la fabricación de estos dispositivos: el ataque húmedo para conseguir el gate-recess en heterostructuras de InAl(Ga)N/GaN; y tratamientos basados en flúor (plasma CF4 e implantación de F) de la zona debajo de la puerta. Se han llevado a cabo ataques húmedos en heteroestructuras de InAl(Ga)N crecidas sobre sustratos de Si, SiC y zafiro. El ataque completo de la barrera se consiguió únicamente en las muestras con sustrato de Si. Por lo tanto, se puede deducir que la velocidad de ataque depende de la densidad de dislocaciones presentes en la estructura, ya que el Si presenta un peor ajuste del parámetro de red con el GaN. En relación a los tratamientos basados en flúor, se ha comprobado que es necesario realizar un recocido térmico después de la fabricación de la puerta para recuperar la heteroestructura de los daños causados durante dichos tratamientos. Además, el estudio de la evolución de la tensión umbral con el tiempo de recocido ha demostrado que en los HEMTs tratados con plasma ésta tiende a valores más negativos al aumentar el tiempo de recocido. Por el contrario, la tensión umbral de los HEMTs implantados se desplaza hacia valores más positivos, lo cual se atribuye a la introducción de iones de flúor a niveles más profundos de la heterostructura. Los transistores fabricados con plasma presentaron mejor funcionamiento en DC a temperatura ambiente que los implantados. Su estudio a alta temperatura ha revelado una reducción del funcionamiento de todos los dispositivos con la temperatura. Los valores iniciales de corriente de drenador y de transconductancia medidos a temperatura ambiente se recuperaron después del ciclo térmico, por lo que se deduce que dichos efectos térmicos son reversibles. Se han estudiado varios aspectos relacionados con el funcionamiento de los HEMTs a diferentes temperaturas. En primer lugar, se han evaluado las prestaciones de dispositivos de AlGaN/GaN sobre sustrato de Si con diferentes caps: GaN, in situ SiN e in situ SiN/GaN, desde 25 K hasta 550 K. Los transistores con in situ SiN presentaron los valores más altos de corriente drenador, transconductancia, y los valores más bajos de resistencia-ON, así como las mejores características en corte. Además, se ha confirmado que dichos dispositivos presentan gran robustez frente al estrés térmico. En segundo lugar, se ha estudiado el funcionamiento de transistores de InAlN/GaN con diferentes diseños y geometrías. Dichos dispositivos presentaron una reducción casi lineal de los parámetros en DC en el rango de temperaturas de 25°C hasta 225°C. Esto se debe principalmente a la dependencia térmica de la movilidad electrónica, y también a la reducción de la drift velocity con la temperatura. Además, los transistores con mayores longitudes de puerta mostraron una mayor reducción de su funcionamiento, lo cual se atribuye a que la drift velocity disminuye más considerablemente con la temperatura cuando el campo eléctrico es pequeño. De manera similar, al aumentar la distancia entre la puerta y el drenador, el funcionamiento del HEMT presentó una mayor reducción con la temperatura. Por lo tanto, se puede deducir que la degradación del funcionamiento de los HEMTs causada por el aumento de la temperatura depende tanto de la longitud de la puerta como de la distancia entre la puerta y el drenador. Por otra parte, la alta densidad de potencia generada en la región activa de estos transistores conlleva el auto calentamiento de los mismos por efecto Joule, lo cual puede degradar su funcionamiento y Habilidad. Durante esta tesis se ha desarrollado un simple método para la determinación de la temperatura del canal basado en medidas eléctricas. La aplicación de dicha técnica junto con la realización de simulaciones electrotérmicas han posibilitado el estudio de varios aspectos relacionados con el autocalentamiento. Por ejemplo, se han evaluado sus efectos en dispositivos sobre Si, SiC, y zafiro. Los transistores sobre SiC han mostrado menores efectos gracias a la mayor conductividad térmica del SiC, lo cual confirma el papel clave que desempeña el sustrato en el autocalentamiento. Se ha observado que la geometría del dispositivo tiene cierta influencia en dichos efectos, destacando que la distribución del calor generado en la zona del canal depende de la distancia entre la puerta y el drenador. Además, se ha demostrado que la temperatura ambiente tiene un considerable impacto en el autocalentamiento, lo que se atribuye principalmente a la dependencia térmica de la conductividad térmica de las capas y sustrato que forman la heterostructura. Por último, se han realizado numerosas medidas en pulsado para estudiar el atrapamiento de carga en HEMTs sobre sustratos de SiC con barreras de AlGaN y de InAlN. Los resultados obtenidos en los transistores con barrera de AlGaN han presentado una disminución de la corriente de drenador y de la transconductancia sin mostrar un cambio en la tensión umbral. Por lo tanto, se puede deducir que la posible localización de las trampas es la región de acceso entre la puerta y el drenador. Por el contrario, la reducción de la corriente de drenador observada en los dispositivos con barrera de InAlN llevaba asociado un cambio significativo en la tensión umbral, lo que implica la existencia de trampas situadas en la zona debajo de la puerta. Además, el significativo aumento del valor de la resistencia-ON y la degradación de la transconductancia revelan la presencia de trampas en la zona de acceso entre la puerta y el drenador. La evaluación de los efectos del atrapamiento de carga en dispositivos con diferentes geometrías ha demostrado que dichos efectos son menos notables en aquellos transistores con mayor longitud de puerta o mayor distancia entre puerta y drenador. Esta dependencia con la geometría se puede explicar considerando que la longitud y densidad de trampas de la puerta virtual son independientes de las dimensiones del dispositivo. Finalmente se puede deducir que para conseguir el diseño óptimo durante la fase de diseño no sólo hay que tener en cuenta la aplicación final sino también la influencia que tiene la geometría en los diferentes aspectos estudiados (funcionamiento a alta temperatura, autocalentamiento, y atrapamiento de carga). ABSTRACT GaN-based high electron mobility transistors have been under extensive research due to the excellent electrical properties of GaN and its related alloys (high carrier concentration, high mobility, and high critical electric field). Although these devices have been recently included in commercial applications, some performance and reliability issues need to be addressed for their expansion in the market. Some of these relevant aspects have been studied during this thesis; for instance, the fabrication of enhancement mode HEMTs, the device performance at high temperature, the self-heating and the charge trapping. Enhancement mode HEMTs have become more attractive mainly because their use leads to a significant reduction of the power consumption during the stand-by state. Moreover, they enable the fabrication of simpler power amplifier circuits and high-power switches because they allow the elimination of negativepolarity voltage supply, reducing significantly the circuit complexity and system cost. In this thesis, different techniques for the fabrication of these devices have been assessed: wet-etching for achieving the gate-recess in InAl(Ga)N/GaN devices and two different fluorine-based treatments (CF4 plasma and F implantation). Regarding the wet-etching, experiments have been carried out in InAl(Ga)N/GaN grown on different substrates: Si, sapphire, and SiC. The total recess of the barrier was achieved after 3 min of etching in devices grown on Si substrate. This suggests that the etch rate can critically depend on the dislocations present in the structure, since the Si exhibits the highest mismatch to GaN. Concerning the fluorine-based treatments, a post-gate thermal annealing was required to recover the damages caused to the structure during the fluorine-treatments. The study of the threshold voltage as a function of this annealing time has revealed that in the case of the plasma-treated devices it become more negative with the time increase. On the contrary, the threshold voltage of implanted HEMTs showed a positive shift when the annealing time was increased, which is attributed to the deep F implantation profile. Plasma-treated HEMTs have exhibited better DC performance at room temperature than the implanted devices. Their study at high temperature has revealed that their performance decreases with temperature. The initial performance measured at room temperature was recovered after the thermal cycle regardless of the fluorine treatment; therefore, the thermal effects were reversible. Thermal issues related to the device performance at different temperature have been addressed. Firstly, AlGaN/GaN HEMTs grown on Si substrate with different cap layers: GaN, in situ SiN, or in situ SiN/GaN, have been assessed from 25 K to 550 K. In situ SiN cap layer has been demonstrated to improve the device performance since HEMTs with this cap layer have exhibited the highest drain current and transconductance values, the lowest on-resistance, as well as the best off-state characteristics. Moreover, the evaluation of thermal stress impact on the device performance has confirmed the robustness of devices with in situ cap. Secondly, the high temperature performance of InAlN/GaN HEMTs with different layouts and geometries have been assessed. The devices under study have exhibited an almost linear reduction of the main DC parameters operating in a temperature range from room temperature to 225°C. This was mainly due to the thermal dependence of the electron mobility, and secondly to the drift velocity decrease with temperature. Moreover, HEMTs with large gate length values have exhibited a great reduction of the device performance. This was attributed to the greater decrease of the drift velocity for low electric fields. Similarly, the increase of the gate-to-drain distance led to a greater reduction of drain current and transconductance values. Therefore, this thermal performance degradation has been found to be dependent on both the gate length and the gate-to-drain distance. It was observed that the very high power density in the active region of these transistors leads to Joule self-heating, resulting in an increase of the device temperature, which can degrade the device performance and reliability. A simple electrical method have been developed during this work to determine the channel temperature. Furthermore, the application of this technique together with the performance of electro-thermal simulations have enabled the evaluation of different aspects related to the self-heating. For instance, the influence of the substrate have been confirmed by the study of devices grown on Si, SiC, and Sapphire. HEMTs grown on SiC substrate have been confirmed to exhibit the lowest self-heating effects thanks to its highest thermal conductivity. In addition to this, the distribution of the generated heat in the channel has been demonstrated to be dependent on the gate-to-drain distance. Besides the substrate and the geometry of the device, the ambient temperature has also been found to be relevant for the self-heating effects, mainly due to the temperature-dependent thermal conductivity of the layers and the substrate. Trapping effects have been evaluated by means of pulsed measurements in AlGaN and InAIN barrier devices. AlGaN barrier HEMTs have exhibited a de crease in drain current and transconductance without measurable threshold voltage change, suggesting the location of the traps in the gate-to-drain access region. On the contrary, InAIN barrier devices have showed a drain current associated with a positive shift of threshold voltage, which indicated that the traps were possibly located under the gate region. Moreover, a significant increase of the ON-resistance as well as a transconductance reduction were observed, revealing the presence of traps on the gate-drain access region. On the other hand, the assessment of devices with different geometries have demonstrated that the trapping effects are more noticeable in devices with either short gate length or the gate-to-drain distance. This can be attributed to the fact that the length and the trap density of the virtual gate are independent on the device geometry. Finally, it can be deduced that besides the final application requirements, the influence of the device geometry on the performance at high temperature, on the self-heating, as well as on the trapping effects need to be taken into account during the device design stage to achieve the optimal layout.

Brown trout thermal niche and climate change: expected changes in the distribution of cold-water fish in central Spain

This paper addresses the determination of the realized thermal niche and the effects of climate change on the range distribution of two brown trout populations inhabiting two streams in the Duero River basin (Iberian Peninsula) at the edge of the natural distribution area of this species. For reaching these goals, new methodological developments were applied to improve reliability of forecasts. Water temperature data were collected using 11 thermographs located along the altitudinal gradient, and they were used to model the relationship between stream temperature and air temperature along the river continuum. Trout abundance was studied using electrofishing at 37 sites to determine the current distribution. The RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 change scenarios adopted by the International Panel of Climate Change for its Fifth Assessment Report were used for simulations and local downscaling in this study. We found more reliable results using the daily mean stream temperature than maximum daily temperature and their respective seven days moving-average to determine the distribution thresholds. Thereby, the observed limits of the summer distribution of brown trout were linked to thresholds between 18.1ºC and 18.7ºC. These temperatures characterise a realised thermal niche narrower than the physiological thermal range. In the most unfavourable climate change scenario, the thermal habitat loss of brown trout increased to 38% (Cega stream) and 11% (Pirón stream) in the upstream direction at the end of the century; however, at the Cega stream, the range reduction could reach 56% due to the effect of a ?warm-window? opening in the piedmont reach.

Desarrollo de un método estadístico para la generación de escenarios climáticos de alta resolución a partir de simulaciones de baja resolución de Modelos de Circulación General: aplicación a España

Esta tesis doctoral presenta el desarrollo, verificación y aplicación de un método original de regionalización estadística para generar escenarios locales de clima futuro de temperatura y precipitación diarias, que combina dos pasos. El primer paso es un método de análogos: los "n" días cuya configuración atmosférica de baja resolución es más parecida a la del día problema, se seleccionan de un banco de datos de referencia del pasado. En el segundo paso, se realiza un análisis de regresión múltiple sobre los "n" días más análogos para la temperatura, mientras que para la precipitación se utiliza la distribución de probabilidad de esos "n" días análogos para obtener la estima de precipitación. La verificación de este método se ha llevado a cabo para la España peninsular y las Islas Baleares. Los resultados muestran unas buenas prestaciones para temperatura (BIAS cerca de 0.1ºC y media de errores absolutos alrededor de 1.9ºC); y unas prestaciones aceptables para la precipitación (BIAS razonablemente bajo con una media de -18%; error medio absoluto menor que para una simulación de referencia (la persistencia); y una distribución de probabilidad simulada similar a la observada según dos test no-paramétricos de similitud). Para mostrar la aplicabilidad de la metodología desarrollada, se ha aplicado en detalle en un caso de estudio. El método se aplicó a cuatro modelos climáticos bajo diferentes escenarios futuros de emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero, para la región de Aragón, produciendo así proyecciones futuras de precipitación y temperaturas máximas y mínimas diarias. La fiabilidad de la técnica de regionalización fue evaluada de nuevo para el caso de estudio mediante un proceso de verificación. Para determinar la capacidad de los modelos climáticos para simular el clima real, sus simulaciones del pasado (la denominada salida 20C3M) se regionalizaron y luego se compararon con el clima observado (los resultados son bastante robustos para la temperatura y menos concluyentes para la precipitación). Las proyecciones futuras a escala local presentan un aumento significativo durante todo el siglo XXI de las temperaturas máximas y mínimas para todos los futuros escenarios de emisiones considerados. Las simulaciones de precipitación presentan mayores incertidumbres. Además, la aplicabilidad práctica del método se demostró también mediante su utilización para producir escenarios climáticos futuros para otros casos de estudio en los distintos sectores y regiones del mundo. Se ha prestado especial atención a una aplicación en Centroamérica, una región que ya está sufriendo importantes impactos del cambio climático y que tiene un clima muy diferente. ABSTRACT This doctoral thesis presents the development, verification and application of an original downscaling method for daily temperature and precipitation, which combines two statistical approaches. The first step is an analogue approach: the “n” days most similar to the day to be downscaled are selected. In the second step, a multiple regression analysis using the “n” most analogous days is performed for temperature, whereas for precipitation the probability distribution of the “n” analogous days is used to obtain the amount of precipitation. Verification of this method has been carried out for the Spanish Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands. Results show good performance for temperature (BIAS close to 0.1ºC and Mean Absolute Errors around 1.9ºC); and an acceptable skill for precipitation (reasonably low BIAS with a mean of - 18%, Mean Absolute Error lower than for a reference simulation, i.e. persistence, and a well-simulated probability distribution according to two non-parametric tests of similarity). To show the applicability of the method, a study case has been analyzed. The method was applied to four climate models under different future emission scenarios for the region of Aragón, thus producing future projections of daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures. The reliability of the downscaling technique was re-assessed for the study case by a verification process. To determine the ability of the climate models to simulate the real climate, their simulations of the past (the 20C3M output) were downscaled and then compared with the observed climate – the results are quite robust for temperature and less conclusive for the precipitation. The downscaled future projections exhibit a significant increase during the entire 21st century of the maximum and minimum temperatures for all the considered future emission scenarios. Precipitation simulations exhibit greater uncertainties. Furthermore, the practical applicability of the method was demonstrated also by using it to produce future climate scenarios for some other study cases in different sectors and regions of the world. Special attention was paid to an application of the method in Central America, a region that is already suffering from significant climate change impacts and that has a very different climate from others where the method was previously applied.