Seismic Activity Rates in the Iberian Peninsula

Evaluating the seismic hazard requires establishing a distribution of the seismic activity rate, irrespective of the methodology used in the evaluation. In practice, how that activity rate is established tends to be the main difference between the various evaluation methods. The traditional procedure relies on a seismogenic zonation and the Gutenberg-Richter (GR) hypothesis. Competing zonations are often compared looking only at the geometry of the zones, but the resulting activity rate is affected by both geometry and the values assigned to the GR parameters. Contour plots can be used for conducting more meaningful comparisons, providing the GR parameters are suitably normalised. More recent approaches for establishing the seismic activity rate forego the use of zones and GR statistics and special attention is paid here to such procedures. The paper presents comparisons between the local activity rates that result for the complete Iberian Peninsula using kernel estimators as well as two seismogenic zonations. It is concluded that the smooth variation of the seismic activity rate produced by zoneless methods is more realistic than the stepwise changes associated with zoned approaches; moreover, the choice of zonation often has a stronger influence on the results than its fairly subjective origin would warrant. It is also observed that the activity rate derived from the kernel approach, related with the GR parameter “a”, is qualitatively consistent with the epicentres in the catalogue. Finally, when comparing alternative zonations it is not just their geometry but the distribution of activity rate that should be compared.

Seismic hazards of the Iberian Peninsula - evaluation with Kernel functions

The seismic hazard of the Iberian Peninsula is analysed using a nonparametric methodology based on statistical kernel functions; the activity rate is derived from the catalogue data, both its spatial dependence (without a seismogenetic zonation) and its magnitude dependence (without using Gutenberg–Richter's law). The catalogue is that of the Instituto Geográfico Nacional, supplemented with other catalogues around the periphery; the quantification of events has been homogenised and spatially or temporally interrelated events have been suppressed to assume a Poisson process. The activity rate is determined by the kernel function, the bandwidth and the effective periods. The resulting rate is compared with that produced using Gutenberg–Richter statistics and a zoned approach. Three attenuation laws have been employed, one for deep sources and two for shallower events, depending on whether their magnitude was above or below 5. The results are presented as seismic hazard maps for different spectral frequencies and for return periods of 475 and 2475 yr, which allows constructing uniform hazard spectra.

Seismicity and seismic risk in Spain = Sismicite et risque sismique en Espagne

The spanish seismic norm has a direct application in building construction but it recomends specific studies in the case of important public works such us large dams or bridges. For this reason, and to establish specifical criteria in its field of activity, the Dirección General de Obras Hidráulicas of the spanish Ministerio de Obras Públicas y Urbanismo commissioned us a seismotectonical and seismic risk study applicable to Spain, materialized on a series of maps of inmediate and direct use. In this paper we explain the methodology pursued to obtain these maps. It has required, firstly, investigations with the aim to improve the seismic information corresponding to the historical or preinstrumental period, that allowed more precise cuantifications. Secondly, these data have been processed by probabilistic methods, using de intensity as foundamental parameter. The corresponding maps have been developed. Finally, other maps of seismic accelerations have been compiled. La normative sismorresistent espagnole á une application directe dans 1'edification, mais elle recommend la realitation des etudes especifiques dans le cas des travaux publics importants telles que ponts ou barrages. Pour cette raison et pour etablir des criteres especifiques dans son camp dáctivité, la Direccion General de Obras Hidraulicas du Ministerio de Obras Publicas y Urbanismo espagnol a commande un etude sismotectonique et de risque sismique applicable a l'Espagne, materialise en une serie de cartes de utilization directe et inmediate. Dans cette communication on explique la methodologie a suivre pour la realization de cettes cartes. Celá a fait necessaire, d'abord, des recherches pour amelliorer l'information concernant le periode historique ou preinstrumental, ce qui permet des cuantifications plus precises. En second lieu ces faits ont ête traités avec des methodes probabilistes, employant l'intensité come parametre fondamental. En consequence nous avons developpe des cartes d'intensite et d'acceleration sismique.

Seismic hazard of the Iberian Peninsula: evaluation with Kernel functions

The seismic hazard of the Iberian Peninsula is analysed using a nonparametric methodology based on statistical kernel functions; the activity rate is derived from the catalogue data, both its spatial dependence (without a seismogenic zonation) and its magnitude dependence (without using Gutenberg–Richter's relationship). The catalogue is that of the Instituto Geográfico Nacional, supplemented with other catalogues around the periphery; the quantification of events has been homogenised and spatially or temporally interrelated events have been suppressed to assume a Poisson process. The activity rate is determined by the kernel function, the bandwidth and the effective periods. The resulting rate is compared with that produced using Gutenberg–Richter statistics and a zoned approach. Three attenuation relationships have been employed, one for deep sources and two for shallower events, depending on whether their magnitude was above or below 5. The results are presented as seismic hazard maps for different spectral frequencies and for return periods of 475 and 2475 yr, which allows constructing uniform hazard spectra