Bayesian model selection of structural explanatory models: Application to road accident data

Using the Bayesian approach as the model selection criteria, the main purpose in this study is to establish a practical road accident model that can provide a better interpretation and prediction performance. For this purpose we are using a structural explanatory model with autoregressive error term. The model estimation is carried out through Bayesian inference and the best model is selected based on the goodness of fit measures. To cross validate the model estimation further prediction analysis were done. As the road safety measures the number of fatal accidents in Spain, during 2000-2011 were employed. The results of the variable selection process show that the factors explaining fatal road accidents are mainly exposure, economic factors, and surveillance and legislative measures. The model selection shows that the impact of economic factors on fatal accidents during the period under study has been higher compared to surveillance and legislative measures.

Microstructural segmentation of 3D images of alsphalt specimen using Matlab engine

En este proyecto se ha desarrollado un código de MATLAB para el procesamiento de imágenes tomográficas 3D, de muestras de asfalto de carreteras en Polonia. Estas imágenes en 3D han sido tomadas por un equipo de investigación de la Universidad Tecnológica de Lodz (LUT). El objetivo de este proyecto es crear una herramienta que se pueda utilizar para estudiar las diferentes muestras de asfalto 3D y pueda servir para estudiar las pruebas de estrés que experimentan las muestras en el laboratorio. Con el objetivo final de encontrar soluciones a la degradación sufrida en las carreteras de Polonia, debido a diferentes causas, como son las condiciones meteorológicas. La degradación de las carreteras es un tema que se ha investigado desde hace muchos años, debido a la fuerte degradación causada por diferentes factores como son climáticos, la falta de mantenimiento o el tráfico excesivo en algunos casos. Es en Polonia, donde estos tres factores hacen que la composición de muchas carreteras se degrade rápidamente, sobre todo debido a las condiciones meteorológicas sufridas a lo largo del año, con temperaturas que van desde 30° C en verano a -20° C en invierno. Esto hace que la composición de las carreteras sufra mucho y el asfalto se levante, lo que aumenta los costos de mantenimiento y los accidentes de carretera. Este proyecto parte de la base de investigación que se lleva a cabo en la LUT, tratando de mejorar el análisis de las muestras de asfalto, por lo que se realizarán las pruebas de estrés y encontrar soluciones para mejorar el asfalto en las carreteras polacas. Esto disminuiría notablemente el costo de mantenimiento. A pesar de no entrar en aspectos muy técnicos sobre el asfalto y su composición, se ha necesitado realizar un estudio profundo sobre todas sus características, para crear un código capaz de obtener los mejores resultados. Por estas razones, se ha desarrollado en Matlab, los algoritmos que permiten el estudio de los especímenes 3D de asfalto. Se ha utilizado este software, ya que Matlab es una poderosa herramienta matemática que permite operar con matrices para realización de operaciones rápidamente, permitiendo desarrollar un código específico para el tratamiento y procesamiento de imágenes en 3D. Gracias a esta herramienta, estos algoritmos realizan procesos tales como, la segmentación de la imagen 3D, pre y post procesamiento de la imagen, filtrado o todo tipo de análisis microestructural de las muestras de asfalto que se están estudiando. El código presentado para la segmentación de las muestras de asfalto 3D es menos complejo en su diseño y desarrollo, debido a las herramientas de procesamiento de imágenes que incluye Matlab, que facilitan significativamente la tarea de programación, así como el método de segmentación utilizado. Respecto al código, este ha sido diseñado teniendo en cuenta el objetivo de facilitar el trabajo de análisis y estudio de las imágenes en 3D de las muestras de asfalto. Por lo tanto, el principal objetivo es el de crear una herramienta para el estudio de este código, por ello fue desarrollado para que pueda ser integrado en un entorno visual, de manera que sea más fácil y simple su utilización. Ese es el motivo por el cual todos estos algoritmos y funciones, que ha sido desarrolladas, se integrarán en una herramienta visual que se ha desarrollado con el GUIDE de Matlab. Esta herramienta ha sido creada en colaboración con Jorge Vega, y fue desarrollada en su proyecto final de carrera, cuyo título es: Segmentación microestructural de Imágenes en 3D de la muestra de asfalto utilizando Matlab. En esta herramienta se ha utilizado todo las funciones programadas en este proyecto, y tiene el objetivo de desarrollar una herramienta que permita crear un entorno gráfico intuitivo y de fácil uso para el estudio de las muestras de 3D de asfalto. Este proyecto se ha dividido en 4 capítulos, en un primer lugar estará la introducción, donde se presentarán los aspectos más importante que se va a componer el proyecto. En el segundo capítulo se presentarán todos los datos técnicos que se han tenido que estudiar para desarrollar la herramienta, entre los que cabe los tres temas más importantes que se han estudiado en este proyecto: materiales asfálticos, los principios de la tomografías 3D y el procesamiento de imágenes. Esta será la base para el tercer capítulo, que expondrá la metodología utilizada en la elaboración del código, con la explicación del entorno de trabajo utilizado en Matlab y todas las funciones de procesamiento de imágenes utilizadas. Además, se muestra todo el código desarrollado, así como una descripción teórica de los métodos utilizados para el pre-procesamiento y segmentación de las imagenes en 3D. En el capítulo 4, se mostrarán los resultados obtenidos en el estudio de una de las muestras de asfalto, y, finalmente, el último capítulo se basa en las conclusiones sobre el desarrollo de este proyecto. En este proyecto se ha llevado han realizado todos los puntos que se establecieron como punto de partida en el anteproyecto para crear la herramienta, a pesar de que se ha dejado para futuros proyectos nuevas posibilidades de este codigo, como por ejemplo, la detección automática de las diferentes regiones de una muestra de asfalto debido a su composición. Como se muestra en este proyecto, las técnicas de procesamiento de imágenes se utilizan cada vez más en multitud áreas, como pueden ser industriales o médicas. En consecuencia, este tipo de proyecto tiene multitud de posibilidades, y pudiendo ser la base para muchas nuevas aplicaciones que se puedan desarrollar en un futuro. Por último, se concluye que este proyecto ha contribuido a fortalecer las habilidades de programación, ampliando el conocimiento de Matlab y de la teoría de procesamiento de imágenes. Del mismo modo, este trabajo proporciona una base para el desarrollo de un proyecto más amplio cuyo alcance será una herramienta que puedas ser utilizada por el equipo de investigación de la Universidad Tecnológica de Lodz y en futuros proyectos. ABSTRACT In this project has been developed one code in MATLAB to process X-ray tomographic 3D images of asphalt specimens. These images 3D has been taken by a research team of the Lodz University of Technology (LUT). The aim of this project is to create a tool that can be used to study differents asphalt specimen and can be used to study them after stress tests undergoing the samples. With the final goal to find solutions to the degradation suffered roads in Poland due to differents causes, like weather conditions. The degradation of the roads is an issue that has been investigated many years ago, due to strong degradation suffered caused by various factors such as climate, poor maintenance or excessive traffic in some cases. It is in Poland where these three factors make the composition of many roads degrade rapidly, especially due to the weather conditions suffered along the year, with temperatures ranging from 30 o C in summer to -20 ° C in winter. This causes the roads suffers a lot and asphalt rises shortly after putting, increasing maintenance costs and road accident. This project part of the base that research is taking place at the LUT, in order to better analyze the asphalt specimens, they are tested for stress and find solutions to improve the asphalt on Polish roads. This would decrease remarkable maintenance cost. Although this project will not go into the technical aspect as asphalt and composition, but it has been required a deep study about all of its features, to create a code able to obtain the best results. For these reasons, there have been developed in Matlab, algorithms that allow the study of 3D specimens of asphalt. Matlab is a powerful mathematical tool, which allows arrays operate fastly, allowing to develop specific code for the treatment and processing of 3D images. Thus, these algorithms perform processes such as the multidimensional matrix sgementation, pre and post processing with the same filtering algorithms or microstructural analysis of asphalt specimen which being studied. All these algorithms and function that has been developed to be integrated into a visual tool which it be developed with the GUIDE of Matlab. This tool has been created in the project of Jorge Vega which name is: Microstructural segmentation of 3D images of asphalt specimen using Matlab engine. In this tool it has been used all the functions programmed in this project, and it has the aim to develop an easy and intuitive graphical environment for the study of 3D samples of asphalt. This project has been divided into 4 chapters plus the introduction, the second chapter introduces the state-of-the-art of the three of the most important topics that have been studied in this project: asphalt materials, principle of X-ray tomography and image processing. This will be the base for the third chapter, which will outline the methodology used in developing the code, explaining the working environment of Matlab and all the functions of processing images used. In addition, it will be shown all the developed code created, as well as a theoretical description of the methods used for preprocessing and 3D image segmentation. In Chapter 4 is shown the results obtained from the study of one of the specimens of asphalt, and finally the last chapter draws the conclusions regarding the development of this project.

Modelos Estadísticos Dinámicos para Análisis de Evolución de Tasas de Accidentes: Metodología y Herramientas Computacionales

Los accidentes del tráfico son un fenómeno social muy relevantes y una de las principales causas de mortalidad en los países desarrollados. Para entender este fenómeno complejo se aplican modelos econométricos sofisticados tanto en la literatura académica como por las administraciones públicas. Esta tesis está dedicada al análisis de modelos macroscópicos para los accidentes del tráfico en España. El objetivo de esta tesis se puede dividir en dos bloques: a. Obtener una mejor comprensión del fenómeno de accidentes de trafico mediante la aplicación y comparación de dos modelos macroscópicos utilizados frecuentemente en este área: DRAG y UCM, con la aplicación a los accidentes con implicación de furgonetas en España durante el período 2000-2009. Los análisis se llevaron a cabo con enfoque frecuencista y mediante los programas TRIO, SAS y TRAMO/SEATS. b. La aplicación de modelos y la selección de las variables más relevantes, son temas actuales de investigación y en esta tesis se ha desarrollado y aplicado una metodología que pretende mejorar, mediante herramientas teóricas y prácticas, el entendimiento de selección y comparación de los modelos macroscópicos. Se han desarrollado metodologías tanto para selección como para comparación de modelos. La metodología de selección de modelos se ha aplicado a los accidentes mortales ocurridos en la red viaria en el período 2000-2011, y la propuesta metodológica de comparación de modelos macroscópicos se ha aplicado a la frecuencia y la severidad de los accidentes con implicación de furgonetas en el período 2000-2009. Como resultado de los desarrollos anteriores se resaltan las siguientes contribuciones: a. Profundización de los modelos a través de interpretación de las variables respuesta y poder de predicción de los modelos. El conocimiento sobre el comportamiento de los accidentes con implicación de furgonetas se ha ampliado en este proceso. bl. Desarrollo de una metodología para selección de variables relevantes para la explicación de la ocurrencia de accidentes de tráfico. Teniendo en cuenta los resultados de a) la propuesta metodológica se basa en los modelos DRAG, cuyos parámetros se han estimado con enfoque bayesiano y se han aplicado a los datos de accidentes mortales entre los años 2000-2011 en España. Esta metodología novedosa y original se ha comparado con modelos de regresión dinámica (DR), que son los modelos más comunes para el trabajo con procesos estocásticos. Los resultados son comparables, y con la nueva propuesta se realiza una aportación metodológica que optimiza el proceso de selección de modelos, con escaso coste computacional. b2. En la tesis se ha diseñado una metodología de comparación teórica entre los modelos competidores mediante la aplicación conjunta de simulación Monte Cario, diseño de experimentos y análisis de la varianza ANOVA. Los modelos competidores tienen diferentes estructuras, que afectan a la estimación de efectos de las variables explicativas. Teniendo en cuenta el estudio desarrollado en bl) este desarrollo tiene el propósito de determinar como interpretar la componente de tendencia estocástica que un modelo UCM modela explícitamente, a través de un modelo DRAG, que no tiene un método específico para modelar este elemento. Los resultados de este estudio son importantes para ver si la serie necesita ser diferenciada antes de modelar. b3. Se han desarrollado nuevos algoritmos para realizar los ejercicios metodológicos, implementados en diferentes programas como R, WinBUGS, y MATLAB. El cumplimiento de los objetivos de la tesis a través de los desarrollos antes enunciados se remarcan en las siguientes conclusiones: 1. El fenómeno de accidentes del tráfico se ha analizado mediante dos modelos macroscópicos. Los efectos de los factores de influencia son diferentes dependiendo de la metodología aplicada. Los resultados de predicción son similares aunque con ligera superioridad de la metodología DRAG. 2. La metodología para selección de variables y modelos proporciona resultados prácticos en cuanto a la explicación de los accidentes de tráfico. La predicción y la interpretación también se han mejorado mediante esta nueva metodología. 3. Se ha implementado una metodología para profundizar en el conocimiento de la relación entre las estimaciones de los efectos de dos modelos competidores como DRAG y UCM. Un aspecto muy importante en este tema es la interpretación de la tendencia mediante dos modelos diferentes de la que se ha obtenido información muy útil para los investigadores en el campo del modelado. Los resultados han proporcionado una ampliación satisfactoria del conocimiento en torno al proceso de modelado y comprensión de los accidentes con implicación de furgonetas y accidentes mortales totales en España. ABSTRACT Road accidents are a very relevant social phenomenon and one of the main causes of death in industrialized countries. Sophisticated econometric models are applied in academic work and by the administrations for a better understanding of this very complex phenomenon. This thesis is thus devoted to the analysis of macro models for road accidents with application to the Spanish case. The objectives of the thesis may be divided in two blocks: a. To achieve a better understanding of the road accident phenomenon by means of the application and comparison of two of the most frequently used macro modelings: DRAG (demand for road use, accidents and their gravity) and UCM (unobserved components model); the application was made to van involved accident data in Spain in the period 2000-2009. The analysis has been carried out within the frequentist framework and using available state of the art software, TRIO, SAS and TRAMO/SEATS. b. Concern on the application of the models and on the relevant input variables to be included in the model has driven the research to try to improve, by theoretical and practical means, the understanding on methodological choice and model selection procedures. The theoretical developments have been applied to fatal accidents during the period 2000-2011 and van-involved road accidents in 2000-2009. This has resulted in the following contributions: a. Insight on the models has been gained through interpretation of the effect of the input variables on the response and prediction accuracy of both models. The behavior of van-involved road accidents has been explained during this process. b1. Development of an input variable selection procedure, which is crucial for an efficient choice of the inputs. Following the results of a) the procedure uses the DRAG-like model. The estimation is carried out within the Bayesian framework. The procedure has been applied for the total road accident data in Spain in the period 2000-2011. The results of the model selection procedure are compared and validated through a dynamic regression model given that the original data has a stochastic trend. b2. A methodology for theoretical comparison between the two models through Monte Carlo simulation, computer experiment design and ANOVA. The models have a different structure and this affects the estimation of the effects of the input variables. The comparison is thus carried out in terms of the effect of the input variables on the response, which is in general different, and should be related. Considering the results of the study carried out in b1) this study tries to find out how a stochastic time trend will be captured in DRAG model, since there is no specific trend component in DRAG. Given the results of b1) the findings of this study are crucial in order to see if the estimation of data with stochastic component through DRAG will be valid or whether the data need a certain adjustment (typically differencing) prior to the estimation. The model comparison methodology was applied to the UCM and DRAG models, considering that, as mentioned above, the UCM has a specific trend term while DRAG does not. b3. New algorithms were developed for carrying out the methodological exercises. For this purpose different softwares, R, WinBUGs and MATLAB were used. These objectives and contributions have been resulted in the following findings: 1. The road accident phenomenon has been analyzed by means of two macro models: The effects of the influential input variables may be estimated through the models, but it has been observed that the estimates vary from one model to the other, although prediction accuracy is similar, with a slight superiority of the DRAG methodology. 2. The variable selection methodology provides very practical results, as far as the explanation of road accidents is concerned. Prediction accuracy and interpretability have been improved by means of a more efficient input variable and model selection procedure. 3. Insight has been gained on the relationship between the estimates of the effects using the two models. A very relevant issue here is the role of trend in both models, relevant recommendations for the analyst have resulted from here. The results have provided a very satisfactory insight into both modeling aspects and the understanding of both van-involved and total fatal accidents behavior in Spain.

Energy- and environmentally efficient road management: The case of the Spanish motorway network

Transport is responsible for 41% of CO2 emissions in Spain, and around 65% of that figure is due to road traffic. Tolled motorways are currently managed according to economic criteria: minimizing operational costs and maximizing revenues from tolls. Within this framework, this paper develops a new methodology for managing motorways based on a target of maximum energy efficiency. It includes technological and demand-driven policies, which are applied to two case studies. Various conclusions emerge from this study. One is, that the use of intelligent payment systems is recommended; and another, is that the most sustainable policy would involve defining the most efficient strategy for each motorway section, including the maximum use of its capacity, the toll level which attracts the most vehicles, and the optimum speed limit for each type of vehicle.

Do charges to freight trucks and trains in the European Union reflect their social marginal costs? Application to the case of Spain

In the last few years, the European Union (EU) has become greatly concerned about the environmental costs of road transport in Europe as a result of the constant growth in the market share of trucks and the steady decline in the market share of railroads. In order to reverse this trend, the EU is promoting the implementation of additional charges for heavy goods vehicles (HGV) on the trunk roads of the EU countries. However, the EU policy is being criticised because it does not address the implementation of charges to internalise the external costs produced by automobiles and other transport modes such as railroad. In this paper, we first describe the evolution of the HGV charging policy in the EU, and then assess its practical implementation across different European countries. Second, and of greater significance, by using the case study of Spain, we evaluate to what extent the current fees on trucks and trains reflect their social marginal costs, and consequently lead to an allocative-efficient outcome. We found that for the average case in Spain the truck industry meets more of the marginal social cost produced by it than does the freight railroad industry. The reason for this lies in the large sums of money paid by truck companies in fuel taxes, and the subsidies that continue to be granted by the government to the railroads.

The interurban DRAG-Spain model: the main factors of influence on road accidents in Spain

This paper presents the results of applying DRAG methodology to the identification of the main factors of influence on the number of injury and fatal accidents occurring on Spain’s interurban network. Nineteen independent variables have been included in the model grouped together under ten categories: exposure, infrastructure, weather, drivers, economic variables, vehicle stock, surveillance, speed and legislative measures. Highly interesting conclusions can be reached from the results on the basis of the different effects of a single variable on each of the accident types according to severity. The greatest influence revealed by the results is exposure, which together with inexperienced drivers, speed and an ageing vehicle stock, have a negative effect, while the increased surveillance on roads, the improvement in the technological features of vehicles and the proportion of high capacity networks have a positive effect, since the results obtained show a significant drop in accidents.

The influence of economic incentives linked to road safety indicators on accidents: The case of toll concessions in Spain

The goal of this paper is to evaluate whether the incentives incorporated in toll highway concession contracts in order to encourage private operators to adopt measures to reduce accidents are actually effective at improving safety. To this end, we implemented negative binomial regression models using information about highway characteristics and accident data from toll highway concessions in Spain from 2007 to 2009. Our results show that even though road safety is highly influenced by variables that are not managed by the contractor, such as the annual average daily traffic (AADT), the percentage of heavy vehicles on the highway, number of lanes, number of intersections and average speed; the implementation of these incentives has a positive influence on the reduction of accidents and injuries. Consequently, this measure seems to be an effective way of improving safety performance in road networks.

Changes in the external costs of freight surface transport in Spain

This paper studies the external costs of surface freight transport in Spain and finds that a reduction occurred over the past 15 years. The analysis yields two conclusions: trucks have experienced a reduction in external costs, and rail has lower externalities. The external costs of road freight transport decrease between 1993 and 2007 (44%). The external costs of rail freight increase by 12%. During this period, the external costs of road freight related to climate increase by 16%, oppositely than those from air pollution and accidents (51 and 44%). The external costs of rail related to pollutant emissions and climate increase by 4% and 43%. Oppositely, the external costs related to accidents decrease by 27%. Road freight generates eight times the external costs of rail, 2.35 Euro cents per tonne kilometre in 2005 (5.6% accidents, 74.7% air pollution and 19.7% climate) vs. 0.28 (13.4% accidents, 53.9% air pollution and 32.7% climate).

Impact of introducing longer and heavier vehicles on regional consumer price index and Spanish road freight transport system

This paper applies an integrated modeling approach to the case of Spain; the approach is based on a random utility-based multiregional input-output model and a road transport network model for assessing the effect of introducing longer and heavier vehicles (LHVs) on the regional consumer price index (CPI) and on the transportation system. The approach strongly supports the concept that changes in transport costs derived from the LHV allowance as well as the economic structure of regions have direct and indirect effects on the economy and on the transportation system. Results show that the introduction of LHVs might reduce prices paid by consumers for a representative basket of goods and services in the regions of Spain and would also lead to a reduction in the regional CPI. In addition, the magnitude and extent of changes in the transportation system are estimated by using the commodity-based structure of the approach to identify the effect of traffic changes on traffic flows and on pollutant emissions over the whole network.

Bayesian model selection methodology for road safety

Road accidents are a very relevant issue in many countries and macroeconomic models are very frequently applied by academia and administrations to reduce their frequency and consequences. The selection of explanatory variables and response transformation parameter within the Bayesian framework for the selection of the set of explanatory variables a TIM and 3IM (two input and three input models) procedures are proposed. The procedure also uses the DIC and pseudo -R2 goodness of fit criteria. The model to which the methodology is applied is a dynamic regression model with Box-Cox transformation (BCT) for the explanatory variables and autorgressive (AR) structure for the response. The initial set of 22 explanatory variables are identified. The effects of these factors on the fatal accident frequency in Spain, during 2000-2012, are estimated. The dependent variable is constructed considering the stochastic trend component.

An integrated modeling approach to assess the impact on road freight transport demand of allowing longer and heavier vehicles (LHVs) in Spain

The assessment on introducing Longer and Heavier Vehicles (LHVs) on the road freight transport demand is performed in this paper by applying an integrated modeling approach composed of a Random Utility-Based Multiregional Input-Output model (RUBMRIO) and a road transport network model. The approach strongly supports the concept that changes in transport costs derived from the LHVs allowance as well as the economic structure of regions have both direct and indirect effects on the road freight transport system. In addition, we estimate the magnitude and extent of demand changes in the road freight transportation system by using the commodity-based structure of the approach to identify the effect on traffic flows and on pollutant emissions over the whole network of Spain by considering a sensitivity analysis of the main parameters which determine the share of Heavy-Goods Vehicles (HGVs) and LHVs. The results show that the introduction of LHVs will strengthen the competitiveness of the road haulage sector by reducing costs, emissions, and the total freight vehicles required.

Spatial analysis of geometric design consistency and road sight distance

Because of the high number of crashes occurring on highways, it is necessary to intensify the search for new tools that help in understanding their causes. This research explores the use of a geographic information system (GIS) for an integrated analysis, taking into account two accident-related factors: design consistency (DC) (based on vehicle speed) and available sight distance (ASD) (based on visibility). Both factors require specific GIS software add-ins, which are explained. Digital terrain models (DTMs), vehicle paths, road centerlines, a speed prediction model, and crash data are integrated in the GIS. The usefulness of this approach has been assessed through a study of more than 500 crashes. From a regularly spaced grid, the terrain (bare ground) has been modeled through a triangulated irregular network (TIN). The length of the roads analyzed is greater than 100 km. Results have shown that DC and ASD could be related to crashes in approximately 4% of cases. In order to illustrate the potential of GIS, two crashes are fully analyzed: a car rollover after running off road on the right side and a rear-end collision of two moving vehicles. Although this procedure uses two software add-ins that are available only for ArcGIS, the study gives a practical demonstration of the suitability of GIS for conducting integrated studies of road safety.