A Methodological model to assist the optimization and risk management of mining investment decisions

Identifying, quantifying, and minimizing technical risks associated with investment decisions is a key challenge for mineral industry decision makers and investors. However, risk analysis in most bankable mine feasibility studies are based on the stochastic modelling of project “Net Present Value” (NPV)which, in most cases, fails to provide decision makers with a truly comprehensive analysis of risks associated with technical and management uncertainty and, as a result, are of little use for risk management and project optimization. This paper presents a value-chain risk management approach where project risk is evaluated for each step of the project lifecycle, from exploration to mine closure, and risk management is performed as a part of a stepwise value-added optimization process.

A multinational SDI-based system to facilitate disaster risk management in the Andean Community

A useful strategy for improving disaster risk management is sharing spatial data across different technical organizations using shared information systems. However, the implementation of this type of system requires a large effort, so it is difficult to find fully implemented and sustainable information systems that facilitate sharing multinational spatial data about disasters, especially in developing countries. In this paper, we describe a pioneer system for sharing spatial information that we developed for the Andean Community. This system, called SIAPAD (Andean Information System for Disaster Prevention and Relief), integrates spatial information from 37 technical organizations in the Andean countries (Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru). SIAPAD was based on the concept of a thematic Spatial Data Infrastructure (SDI) and includes a web application, called GEORiesgo, which helps users to find relevant information with a knowledge-based system. In the paper, we describe the design and implementation of SIAPAD together with general conclusions and future directions which we learned as a result of this work.

Influence of nutritional and management practices on productive performance and egg quality of brown egg-laying hens = Influencia de factores nutricionales y de manejo sobre la productividad y calidad del huevo en gallinas ponedoras rubias

El objetivo general de esta Tesis Doctoral fue estudiar la influencia de diversos factores nutricionales y de manejo sobre la productividad y la calidad del huevo en gallinas ponedoras comerciales rubias. Los factores estudiados fueron: 1) Cereal principal y tipo de grasa en la dieta; 2) Nivel de proteína bruta y grasa en la dieta; 3) Nivel energético de la dieta; 4) Peso vivo al inicio del período de puesta. En el experimento 1, la influencia del cereal principal en la dieta y el tipo de grasa suplementada en la dieta sobre los parámetros productivos y la calidad del huevo fue estudiado en 756 gallinas rubias de la estirpe Lohmann desde la sem 22 hasta las 54 de vida. El experimento se realizó mediante un diseño completamente al azar con 9 tratamientos ordenados factorialmente, con 3 cereales bases (maíz, trigo blando y cebada) y 3 tipos de grasa que variaban en su contenido en ácido linoléico (aceite de soja, oleína vegetal mezcla y manteca). Todas las dietas satisfacian las recomendaciones nutricionales para gallinas ponedoras rubias según el NRC (1994) y FEDNA (2008). La unidad experimental fue la jaula para todas las variables. Cada tratamiento fue replicado 4 veces, y la unidad experimental estuvo formada por 21 gallinas alojadas en grupos de 7. Las dietas fueron formuladas con un contenido nutritivo similar, excepto para el ácido linoléico, que varió en función del tipo de cereal y grasa utilizado. Así, dependiendo de la combinación de estos elementos el contenido de este ácido graso varió desde un 0.8% (dieta trigo-manteca) a un 3.4% (dieta maíz-aceite de soja). Este rango de ácido linoléico permitió estimar el nivel mínimo de este nutriente en el pienso que permite maximizar el peso del huevo. Los parámetros productivos y la calidad del huevo se controlaron cada 28 días y el peso de las aves se midió individualmente al inicio y al final del experimento con el objetivo de estudiar la variación en el peso vivo de los animales. No se observaron interacciones entre el tipo de cereal y grasa en la dieta para ninguna de las variables productivas estudiadas. Los tratamientos experimentales no afectaron a las principales variables productivas (porcentaje de puesta, peso del huevo y masa de huevo). Sin embargo, la ganancia de peso fue mayor en gallinas alimentadas con maíz o trigo que las gallinas alimentadas con cebada (243 vs. 238 vs. 202 g, respectivamente; P< 0.05). En el mismo sentido, las gallinas alimentadas con manteca obtuvieron una mayor ganancia de peso que las gallinas alimentadas con aceite de soja u oleína vegetal (251 vs. 221 vs. 210 g, respectivamente; P< 0.05). En cuanto a las variables estudiadas en relación con la calidad del huevo, ninguna de las variables estudiadas se vio afectada por el tratamiento experimental, salvo la pigmentación de la yema. Así, las gallinas alimentadas con maíz como cereal principal obtuvieron una mayor puntuación en relación con la escala de color que las gallinas alimentadas con trigo y con cebada (9.0 vs. 8.3 vs. 8.3, respectivamente; P< 0.001). La pigmentación de la yema también se vio afectada por el tipo de grasa en la dieta, así, las gallinas alimentadas con manteca obtuvieron una mayor puntuación de color en relación con la escala de color que las gallinas alimentadas con aceite de soja u oleína vegetal (8.9 vs. 8.5 vs. 8.2, respectivamente; P< 0.001). La influencia del contenido en ácido linoléico respecto al peso de huevo y masa de huevo fue mayor a medida que el contenido de dicho ácido graso se redujo en la dieta. Así, la influencia de la dieta en los radios peso de huevo/g linoléico ingerido y masa de huevo/g linoléico ingerido fue significativamente mayor a medida que el contenido en dicho ácido graso disminuyo en la dieta (P< 0.001). Los resultados del ensayo indican que las gallinas ponedoras rubias no necesitan más de un 1.0% de ácido linoléico en la dieta para maximizar la producción y el tamaño del huevo. Además, se pudo concluir que los 3 cereales y las 3 grasas utilizadas pueden sustituirse en la dieta sin ningún perjuicio productivo o referente a la calidad del huevo siempre que los requerimientos de los animales sean cubiertos. En el experimento 2, la influencia del nivel de proteína bruta y el contenido de grasa de la dieta sobre los parámetros productivos y la calidad del huevo fue estudiado en 672 gallinas ponedoras rubias de la estirpe Lohmann entre las sem 22 y 50 de vida. El experimento fue conducido mediante un diseño completamente al azar con 8 tratamientos ordenados factorialmente con 4 dietas y 2 pesos vivos distintos al inicio de puesta (1592 vs. 1860g). Tres de esas dietas diferían en el contenido de proteína bruta (16.5%, 17.5% y 18.5%) y tenían un contenido en grasa añadida de 1.8%. La cuarta dieta tenía el nivel proteico más elevado (18.5%) pero fue suplementada con 3.6% de grasa añadida en vez de 1.8%. Cada tratamiento fue replicado 4 veces y la unidad experimental consistió en 21 gallinas alojadas dentro de grupos de 7 animales en 3 jaulas contiguas. Todas las dietas fueron isocalóricas (2750 kcal EMAn/kg) y cubrieron las recomendaciones en aminoácidos para gallinas ponedoras rubias (Arg, Ile, Lys, Met, Thr, Trp, TSAA y Val) según el NRC (1994) y FEDNA (2008). Los efectos de los tratamientos sobre las variables productivas y la calidad de huevo fueron estudiados cada 28 días. La dieta no afecto a ninguna de las variables productivas estudiadas a lo largo del período productivo. Sin embargo, el peso inicial origino que las gallinas pesadas consumieran más (120.6 vs. 113.9 g; P< 0.001), obtuvieran un porcentaje de puesta mayor (92.5 vs. 89.8%; P< 0.01) y un peso del huevo mayor (64.9 vs. 62.4 g; P< 0.001) que las gallinas ligeras. El peso inicial de las gallinas no afecto al IC por kg de huevo ni a la mortalidad, sin embargo, la ganancia de peso fue mayor (289 vs. 233 g; P< 0.01) y el IC por docena de huevos fue mejor (1.52 vs. 1.57; P< 0.01) en las gallinas ligeras que en las gallinas pesadas. En cuanto a la calidad del huevo, la dieta no influyó sobre ninguna de las variables estudiadas. Los resultados del ensayo muestran que las gallinas ponedoras rubias, independientemente de su peso vivo al inicio de la puesta, no necesitan una cantidad de proteína bruta superior a 16.5% para maximizar la producción, asegurando que las dietas cubren los requerimientos en AA indispensables. Asimismo, se puedo concluir que las gallinas con un peso más elevado al inicio de puesta producen más masa de huevo que las gallinas con un peso más bajo debido a que las primeras producen más cantidad de huevos y más pesados. Sin embargo, ambos grupos de peso obtuvieron el mismo IC por kg de huevo y las gallinas más livianas en peso obtuvieron un mejor IC por docena de huevo que las pesadas. En el experimento 3 la influencia de la concentración energética sobre los parámetros productivos y la calidad del huevo fue estudiada en 520 gallinas ponedoras rubias de la estirpe Hy-Line en el período 24-59 sem de vida. Se utilizaron 8 tratamientos ordenados factorialmente con 4 dietas que variaron en el contenido energético (2650, 2750, 2850 y 2950 kcal EMAn/kg) y 2 pesos vivos distintos al inicio del período de puesta (1733 vs. 1606g). Cada tratamiento fue replicado 5 veces y la unidad experimental consistió en una jaula con 13 aves. Todas las dietas se diseñaron para que tuvieran una concentración nutritiva similar por unidad energética. Las variables productivas y de calidad de huevo se estudiaron mediante controles cada 28 días desde el inicio del experimento. No se observaron interacciones entre el nivel energético y el peso inicial del ave para ninguna de las variables estudiadas. Un incremento en la concentración energética de la dieta incrementó la producción de huevos (88.8 % vs. 91.2 % vs. 92.7 % vs. 90.5 %), masa de huevo (56.1 g/d vs. 58.1 g/d vs. 58.8 g/d vs. 58.1 g/d), y eficiencia energética (5.42 vs. 5.39 vs. 5.38 vs. 5.58 kcal EMA/g huevo) de forma lineal y cuadrática (P< 0.05) y afectó significativamente a la ganancia de peso (255 g vs. 300 g vs. 325 g vs. 359 g; P<0.05) . Sin embargo, un incremento en la concentración energética provocó un descenso lineal en el consumo de los animales (115 g vs. 114 g vs. 111 g vs. 110 g; P< 0.001) y un descenso lineal y cuadrático en el IC por kg de huevo (2.05 vs. 1.96 vs. 1.89 vs. 1.89; P< 0.01). En cuanto a la calidad del huevo, un incremento en el contenido energético de la dieta provocó una reducción en la calidad del albumen de forma lineal en forma de reducción de Unidades Haugh (88.4 vs. 87.8 vs. 86.3 vs. 84.7; P< 0.001), asimismo el incremento de energía redujo de forma lineal la proporción relativa de cáscara en el huevo (9.7 vs. 9.6 vs. 9.6 vs. 9.5; P< 0.001). Sin embargo, el incremento energético propició un incremento lineal en la pigmentación de la yema del huevo (7.4 vs. 7.4 vs. 7.6 vs. 7.9; P< 0.001). El peso vivo al inicio de la prueba afecto a las variables productivas y a la calidad del huevo. Así, los huevos procedentes de gallinas pesadas al inicio de puesta tuvieron una mayor proporción de yema (25.7 % vs. 25.3 %; P< 0.001) y menor de albumen (64.7 vs. 65.0; P< 0.01) y cáscara (9.5 vs. 9.6; P< 0.05) respecto de los huevos procedentes de gallinas ligeras. Consecuentemente, el ratio yema:albumen fue mayor (0.40 vs. 0.39; P< 0.001) para las gallinas pesadas. Según los resultados del experimento se pudo concluir que las actuales gallinas ponedoras rubias responden con incrementos en la producción y en la masa del huevo a incrementos en la concentración energética hasta un límite que se sitúa en 2850 kcal EMAn/kg. Asimismo, los resultados obtenidos entre los 2 grupos de peso al inicio de puesta demostraron que las gallinas pesadas al inicio de puesta tienen un mayor consumo y producen huevos más pesados, con el consecuente aumento de la masa del huevo respecto de gallinas más ligeras. Sin embargo, el IC por kg de huevo fue el mismo en ambos grupos de gallinas y el IC por docena de huevo fue mejor en las gallinas ligeras. Asimismo, la eficiencia energética fue mejor en las gallinas ligeras. Abstract The general aim of this PhD Thesis was to study the influence of different nutritional factors and management on the productivity and egg quality of comercial Brown laying hens. The factor studied were: 1) The effect of the main cereal and type of fat of the diet; 2) The effect of crude protein and fat content of the diet; 3) The effect of energy concentration of the diet; 4) The effect of initial body weight of the hens at the onset of lay period. In experiment 1, the influence of the main cereal and type of supplemental fat in the diet on productive performance and egg quality of the eggs was studied in 756 Lohmann brown-egg laying hens from 22 to 54 wk of age. The experiment was conducted as a completely randomized design with 9 treatments arranged factorially with 3 cereals (dented corn, soft wheat, and barley) and 3 types of fat (soy oil, acidulated vegetable soapstocks, and lard). Each treatment was replicated 4 times (21 hens per replicate). All diets were formulated according to NRC (1994) and FEDNA (2008) to have similar nutrient content except for linoleic acid that ranged from 0.8 (wheat-lard diet) to 3.4% (corn-soy bean oil) depending on the combination of cereal and fat source used. This approach will allow to estimate the minimum level of linoleic acid in the diets that maximizes egg weight. Productive performance and egg quality traits were recorded every 28 d and BW of the hens was measured individually at the beginning and at the end of the experiment. No significant interactions between main factors were detected for any of the variables studied. Egg production, egg weight, and egg mass were not affected by dietary treatment. Body weight gain was higher (243 vs. 238 vs. 202 g; P<0.05) for hens fed corn or wheat than for hens fed barley and also for hens fed lard than for hens fed soy oil or acidulated vegetable soapstocks (251 vs. 221 vs. 210 g; P< 0.05). Egg quality was not influenced by dietary treatment except for yolk color that was greater (9.0 vs. 8.3 vs. 8.3; P< 0.001) for hens fed corn than for hens fed wheat or barley and for hens fed lard than for hens fed soy oil or acidulated vegetable soapstocks (8.9 vs. 8.5 vs. 8.2, respectivamente; P< 0.001). The influence of linoleic acid on egg weight and egg mass was higher when the fatty acid was reduced in the diet. Thus, the influence of the diet in egg weight/g linoleic acid intake and egg mass/g linolec acid intake was higher when the amount of this fatty acid decreased in the diet (P< 0.001). It is concluded that brown egg laying hens do not need more than 1.0% of linoleic acid in the diet (1.16 g/hen/d) to maximize egg production and egg size. The 3 cereals and the 3 fat sources tested can replace each other in the diet provided that the linoleic acid requirements to maximize egg size are met. In experiment 2, the influence of CP and fat content of the diet on performance and egg quality traits was studied in 672 Lohmann brown egg-laying hens from 22 to 50 wk of age. The experiment was conducted as a completely randomized design with 8 treatments arranged factorially with 4 diets and 2 initial BW of the hens (1,592 vs. 1,860 g). Three of these diets differed in the CP content (16.5, 17.5, and 18.5%) and included 1.8% added fat. The fourth diet had also 18.5% CP but was supplemented with 3.6% fat instead of 1.8% fat. Each treatment was replicated 4 times and the experimental unit consisted of 21 hens allocated in groups of 7 in 3 adjacent cages. All diets were isocaloric (2,750 kcal AME/kg) and met the recommendations of brown egg-laying hens for digestible Arg, Ile, Lys, Met, Thr, Trp, TSAA, and Val. Productive performance and egg quality were recorded by replicate every 28-d. For the entire experimental period, diet did not affect any of the productive performance traits studied but the heavier hens had higher ADFI (120.6 vs. 113.9g; P< 0.001), egg production (92.5 vs. 89.8%; P< 0.01), and egg weight (64.9 vs. 62.4g; P< 0.001) than the lighter hens. Initial BW did not affect feed conversion per kilogram of eggs or hen mortality but BW gain was higher (289 vs. 233g; P< 0.01) and FCR per dozen of eggs was better (1.52 vs. 1.57; P< 0.01) for the lighter than for the heavier hens. None of the egg quality variables studied was affected by dietary treatment or initial BW of the hens. It is concluded that brown egg-laying hens, irrespective of their initial BW, do not need more than 16.5% CP to maximize egg production provided that the diet meet the requirements for key indispensable amino acids. Heavier hens produce more eggs that are larger than lighter hens but feed efficiency per kilogram of eggs is not affected. In experiment 3, the influence of AMEn concentration of the diet on productive performance and egg quality traits was studied in 520 Hy-Line brown egg-laying hens differing in initial BW from 24 to 59 wks of age. There were 8 treatments arranged factorially with 4 diets varying in energy content (2,650, 2,750, 2,850, and 2,950 kcal AMEn/kg) and 2 initial BW of the hens (1,733 vs. 1,606 g). Each treatment was replicated 5 times (13 hens per replicate) and all diets had similar nutrient content per unit of energy. No interactions between energy content of the diet and initial BW of the hens were detected for any trait. An increase in energy concentration of the diet increased (linear, P< 0.05; quadratic P< 0.05) egg production (88.8 % vs. 91.2 % vs. 92.7 % vs. 90.5 %), egg mass (56.1 g/d vs. 58.1 g/d vs. 58.8 g/d vs. 58.1 g/d), energy efficiency (5.42 vs. 5.39 vs. 5.38 vs. 5.58 kcal AMEn/g of egg), and BW gain (255 g vs. 300 g vs. 325 g vs. 359 g; P<0.05) but decreased ADFI (115 g vs. 114 g vs. 111 g vs. 110 g; P< linear, P< 0.001) and FCR per kg of eggs (2.05 vs. 1.96 vs. 1.89 vs. 1.89; linear, P< 0.01; quadratic P< 0.01). An increase in energy content of the diet reduced Haugh units (88.4 vs. 87.8 vs. 86.3 vs. 84.7; P< 0.01) and the proportion of shell in the egg (9.7 vs. 9.6 vs. 9.6 vs. 9.5; P< 0.001). Feed intake (114.6 vs. 111.1 g/hen per day), AMEn intake (321 vs. 311 kcal/hen per day), egg weight (64.2 vs. 63.0 g), and egg mass (58.5 vs. 57.0 g) were higher for the heavier than for the lighter hens (P<0.01) but FCR per kg of eggs and energy efficiency were not affected. Eggs from the heavier hens had higher proportion of yolk (25.7 % vs. 25.3 %; P< 0.001) and lower of albumen (64.7 vs. 65.0; P< 0.01) and shell (9.5 vs. 9.6; P< 0.05) than eggs from the lighter hens. Consequently, the yolk to albumen ratio was higher (0.40 vs. 0.39; P< 0.001) for the heavier hens. It is concluded that brown egg-laying hens respond with increases in egg production and egg mass, to increases in AMEn concentration of the diet up to 2,850 kcal/kg. Heavy hens had higher feed intake and produced heavier eggs and more egg mass than light hens. However, energy efficiency was better for the lighter hens.

Diagnosing Causes of Water Scarcity in Complex Water Resources Systems and Identifying Risk Management Actions

From the water management perspective, water scarcity is an unacceptable risk of facing water shortages to serve water demands in the near future. Water scarcity may be temporary and related to drought conditions or other accidental situation, or may be permanent and due to deeper causes such as excessive demand growth, lack of infrastructure for water storage or transport, or constraints in water management. Diagnosing the causes of water scarcity in complex water resources systems is a precondition to adopt effective drought risk management actions. In this paper we present four indices which have been developed to evaluate water scarcity. We propose a methodology for interpretation of index values that can lead to conclusions about the reliability and vulnerability of systems to water scarcity, as well as to diagnose their possible causes and to propose solutions. The described methodology was applied to the Ebro river basin, identifying existing and expected problems and possible solutions. System diagnostics, based exclusively on the analysis of index values, were compared with the known reality as perceived by system managers, validating the conclusions in all cases

Effects of different soil management practices on soil mechanic resistance and seed depth placement in a maize crop in Alentejo, Portugal Mediterranean region.

No tillage, minimum tillage and conventional tillage practices are commonly used in maize crops in Alentejo, affecting soil physic conditions and determining seeders performance. Seeders distribution can be evaluated in the longitudinal and vertical planes. Vertical plane is specified by seeding depth (Karayel et al., 2008). If, in one hand seeding depth uniformity is a goal for all crop establishment , in the other hand, seeders furrow openers depth control is never constant depending on soil conditions. Seed depth uniformity affects crop emergence, Liu et al. (2004) showed an higher correlation between crop productivity and emergence uniformity than with longitudinal plants distribution. Neto et al. (2007) evaluating seed depth placement by measuring maize mesocotyl length under no tillage conditions in 38 farms concluded that 20% of coefficient of variation suggests the need of improvement seeders depth control mechanisms. The objective of this study was to evaluate casual relationships and create spatial variability maps between soil mechanic resistance and vertical distribution under three different soil practices to improve seed depth uniformity.

Assessment of irrigators’ preferences for different water supply risk management tools: option contract and insurance.

Irrigators face the risk of not having enough water to meet their crops’ demand. There are different mechanisms to cope with this risk, including water markets (option contracts) or insurance. A farmer will purchase them when the expected utility change derived from the tool is positive. This paper presents a theoretical assessment of the farmer’s expected utility under two different option contracts, a drought insurance and a combination of an option contract and the insurance. We analyze the conditions that determine farmer’s reference for one instrument or the other and perform a numerical application that is relevant for a Spanish region.

Fractal parameters of pore space from CT images of soils under contrasting management practices

Soil structure plays an important role in flow and transport phenomena, and a quantitative characterization of the spatial heterogeneity of the pore space geometry is beneficial for prediction of soil physical properties. Morphological features such as pore-size distribution, pore space volume or pore?solid surface can be altered by different soil management practices. Irregularity of these features and their changes can be described using fractal geometry. In this study, we focus primarily on the characterization of soil pore space as a 3D geometrical shape by fractal analysis and on the ability of fractal dimensions to differentiate between two a priori different soil structures. We analyze X-ray computed tomography (CT) images of soils samples from two nearby areas with contrasting management practices. Within these two different soil systems, samples were collected from three depths. Fractal dimensions of the pore-size distributions were different depending on soil use and averaged values also differed at each depth. Fractal dimensions of the volume and surface of the pore space were lower in the tilled soil than in the natural soil but their standard deviations were higher in the former as compared to the latter. Also, it was observed that soil use was a factor that had a statistically significant effect on fractal parameters. Fractal parameters provide useful complementary information about changes in soil structure due to changes in soil management. Read More: http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S0218348X14400118?queryID=%24%7BresultBean.queryID%7D&

A Fuzzy approach based on dynamic programming and metaheuristics for selecting safeguards for risk management for information systems

In this paper we focus on the selection of safeguards in a fuzzy risk analysis and management methodology for information systems (IS). Assets are connected by dependency relationships, and a failure of one asset may affect other assets. After computing impact and risk indicators associated with previously identified threats, we identify and apply safeguards to reduce risks in the IS by minimizing the transmission probabilities of failures throughout the asset network. However, as safeguards have associated costs, the aim is to select the safeguards that minimize costs while keeping the risk within acceptable levels. To do this, we propose a dynamic programming-based method that incorporates simulated annealing to tackle optimizations problems.

Impact attribution models to evaluate drought effects: economic impacts, risk analyses and management strategies in Spain and Chile

La sequía es un fenómeno natural que se origina por el descenso de las precipitaciones con respecto a una media, y que resulta en la disponibilidad insuficiente de agua para alguna actividad. La creciente presión que se ha venido ejerciendo sobre los recursos hídricos ha hecho que los impactos de la sequía se hayan visto agravados a la vez que ha desencadenado situaciones de escasez de agua en muchas partes del planeta. Los países con clima mediterráneo son especialmente vulnerables a las sequías, y, su crecimiento económico dependiente del agua da lugar a impactos importantes. Para reducir los impactos de la sequía es necesaria una reducción de la vulnerabilidad a las sequías que viene dada por una gestión más eficiente y por una mejor preparación. Para ello es muy importante disponer de información acerca de los impactos y el alcance de este fenómeno natural. Esta investigación trata de abarcar el tema de los impactos de las sequías, de manera que plantea todos los tipos de impactos que pueden darse y además compara sus efectos en dos países (España y Chile). Para ello se proponen modelos de atribución de impactos que sean capaces de medir las pérdidas económicas causadas por la falta de agua. Los modelos propuestos tienen una base econométrica en la que se incluyen variables clave a la hora de evaluar los impactos como es una variable relacionada con la disponibilidad de agua, y otras de otra naturaleza para distinguir los efectos causados por otras fuentes de variación. Estos modelos se adaptan según la fase del estudio en la que nos encontremos. En primer lugar se miden los impactos directos sobre el regadío y se introduce en el modelo un factor de aleatoriedad para evaluar el riesgo económico de sequía. Esto se hace a dos niveles geográficos (provincial y de Unidad de Demanda Agraria) y además en el último se introduce no solo el riesgo de oferta sino también el riesgo de demanda de agua. La introducción de la perspectiva de riesgo en el modelo da lugar a una herramienta de gestión del riesgo económico que puede ser utilizada para estrategias de planificación. Más adelante una extensión del modelo econométrico se desarrolla para medir los impactos en el sector agrario (impactos directos sobre el regadío y el secano e impactos indirectos sobre la Agro Industria) para ello se adapta el modelo y se calculan elasticidades concatenadas entre la falta de agua y los impactos secundarios. Por último se plantea un modelo econométrico para el caso de estudio en Chile y se evalúa el impacto de las sequías debidas al fenómeno de La Niña. iv Los resultados en general muestran el valor que brinda el conocimiento más preciso acerca de los impactos, ya que en muchas ocasiones se tiende a sobreestimar los daños realmente producidos por la falta de agua. Los impactos indirectos de la sequía confirman su alcance a la vez que son amortiguados a medida que nos acercamos al ámbito macroeconómico. En el caso de Chile, su diferente gestión muestra el papel que juegan el fenómeno de El Niño y La Niña sobre los precios de los principales cultivos del país y sobre el crecimiento del sector. Para reducir las pérdidas y su alcance se deben plantear más medidas de mitigación que centren su esfuerzo en una gestión eficiente del recurso. Además la prevención debe jugar un papel muy importante para reducir los riesgos que pueden sufrirse ante situaciones de escasez. ABSTRACT Drought is a natural phenomenon that originates by the decrease in rainfall in comparison to the average, and that results in water shortages for some activities. The increasing pressure on water resources has augmented the impact of droughts just as water scarcity has become an additional problem in many parts of the planet. Countries with Mediterranean climate are especially vulnerable to drought, and its waterdependent economic growth leads to significant impacts. To reduce the negative impacts it is necessary to deal with drought vulnerability, and to achieve this objective a more efficient management is needed. The availability of information about the impacts and the scope of droughts become highly important. This research attempts to encompass the issue of drought impacts, and therefore it characterizes all impact types that may occur and also compares its effects in two different countries (Spain and Chile). Impact attribution models are proposed in order to measure the economic losses caused by the lack of water. The proposed models are based on econometric approaches and they include key variables for measuring the impacts. Variables related to water availability, crop prices or time trends are included to be able to distinguish the effects caused by any of the possible sources. These models are adapted for each of the parts of the study. First, the direct impacts on irrigation are measured and a source of variability is introduced into the model to assess the economic risk of drought. This is performed at two geographic levels provincial and Agricultural Demand Unit. In the latter, not only the supply risk is considered but also the water demand risk side. The introduction of the risk perspective into the model results in a risk management tool that can be used for planning strategies. Then an extension of the econometric model is developed to measure the impacts on the agricultural sector (direct impacts on irrigated and rainfed productions and indirect impacts on the Agri-food Industry). For this aim the model is adapted and concatenated elasticities between the lack of water and the impacts are estimated. Finally an econometric model is proposed for the Chilean case study to evaluate the impact of droughts, especially caused by El Niño Southern Oscillation. The overall results show the value of knowing better about the precise impacts that often tend to be overestimated. The models allow for measuring accurate impacts due to the lack of water. Indirect impacts of drought confirm their scope while they confirm also its dilution as we approach the macroeconomic variables. In the case of Chile, different management strategies of the country show the role of ENSO phenomena on main crop prices and on economic trends. More mitigation measures focused on efficient resource management are necessary to reduce drought losses. Besides prevention must play an important role to reduce the risks that may be suffered due to shortages.

Governance Structure Choices in Supply Chain Management Evidence from Spanish and Chinese Pork Chain Cases

The author participated in the 6 th EU Framework Project ―Q-pork Chains (FP6-036245-2)‖ from 2007 to 2009. With understanding of work reports from China and other countries, it is found that compared with other countries, China has great problems in pork quality and safety. By comparing the pork chain management between China and Spain, It is found that the difference in governance structure is one of the main differences in pork chain management between Spain and China. In China, spot-market relationship still dominates governance structure of pork chain, especially between the numerous house-hold pig holders and the great number of small slaughters. While in Spain, chain agents commonly apply cooperatives or integrations to cooperate. It also has been proven by recent studies, that in quality management at the chain level that supply chain integration has a direct effect on quality management practices (Han, 2010). Therefore, the author started to investigate the governance structure choices in supply chain management. And it has been set as the first research objective, which is to explain the governance structure choices process and the influencing factors in supply chain management, analyzing the pork chains cases in Spain and in China. During the further investigation, the author noticed the international trade of pork between Spain and China is not smooth since the signature of bi-lateral agreement on pork trade in 2007. Thus, another objective of the research is to find and solve the problems exist in the international pork chain between Spain and China. For the first objective, to explain the governance structure choices in supply chain management, the thesis conducts research in three main sections. 10 First of all, the thesis gives a literature overview in chapter two on Supply Chain Management (SCM), agri-food chain management and pork chain management. It concludes that SCM is a systems approach to view the supply chains as a whole, and to manage the total flow of goods inventory from the supplier to the ultimate customer. It includes the bi-directional flow of products (materials and services) and information, and the associated managerial and operational activities. And it also is a customer focus to create unique and individual source of customer value with an appropriate use of resources, leading to customer satisfaction and building competitive chain advantages. Agri-food chain management and pork chain management are applications of SCM in agri-food sector and pork sector respectively. Then, the research gives a comparative study in chapter three in the pork chain and pork chain management between Spain and China. Many differences are found, while the main difference is governance structure in pork chain management. Furthermore, the author gives an empirical study on governance structure choice in chapter five. It is concluded that governance structure of supply chain consists of a collection of rules/institutions/constraints structuring the transactions between the various stakeholders. Based on the overview on literatures closely related with governance structure, such as transaction cost economics, transaction value analysis and resource-based view theories, seven hypotheses are proposed, which are: Hypothesis 1: Transaction cost has positive relationship with governance structure choice Hypothesis 2: Uncertainty has positive relationship with transaction cost; higher uncertainty exerts high transaction cost Hypothesis 3: The relationship between asset specificity and transaction cost is positive Hypothesis 4: Collaboration advantages and governance structure choice have positive relationship11 Hypothesis 5: Willingness to collaborate has positive relationship with collaboration advantages Hypothesis 6: Capability to collaborate has positive relationship with collaboration advantages Hypothesis 7: Uncertainty has negative effect on collaboration advantages It is noted that as transaction cost value is negative, the transaction cost mentioned in the hypotheses is its absolute value. To test the seven hypotheses, Structural Equation Model (SEM) is applied and data collected from 350 pork slaughtering and processing companies in Jiangsu, Shandong and Henan Provinces in China is used. Based on the empirical SEM model and its results, the seven hypotheses are proved. The author generates several conclusions accordingly. It is found that the governance structure choice of the chain not only depends on transaction cost, it also depends on collaboration advantages. Exchange partners establish more stable and more intense relationship to reduce transaction cost and to maximize collaboration advantages. ―Collaboration advantages‖ in this thesis is defined as the joint value achieved through transaction (mutual activities) of agents in supply chains. This value forms as improvements, mainly in mutual logistics systems, cash response, information exchange, technological improvements and innovative improvements and quality management improvements, etc. Governance structure choice is jointly decided by transaction cost and collaboration advantages. Chain agents take different governance structures to coordinate in order to decrease their transaction cost and to increase their collaboration advantages. In China´s pork chain case, spot market relationship dominates the governance structure among the numerous backyard pig farmer and small family slaughterhouse 12 as they are connected by acquaintance relationship and the transaction cost in turn is low. Their relationship is reliable as they know each other in the neighborhood; as a result, spot market relationship is suitable for their exchange. However, the transaction between large-scale slaughtering and processing industries and small-scale pig producers is becoming difficult. The information hold back behavior and hold-up behavior of small-scale pig producers increase transaction cost between them and large-scale slaughtering and processing industries. Thus, through the more intense and stable relationship between processing industries and pig producers, processing industries reduce the transaction cost and improve the collaboration advantages with their chain partners, in which quality and safety collaboration advantages be increased, meaning that processing industries are able to provide consumers products with better quality and higher safety. It is also drawn that transaction cost is influenced mainly by uncertainty and asset specificity, which is in line with new institutional economics theories developed by Williamson O. E. In China´s pork chain case, behavioral uncertainty is created by the hold-up behaviors of great numbers of small pig producers, while big slaughtering and processing industries having strong asset specificity. On the other hand, ―collaboration advantages‖ is influenced by chain agents´ willingness to collaborate and chain agents´ capabilities to cooperate. With the fast growth of big scale slaughtering and processing industries, they are more willing to know and make effort to cooperate with their chain members, and they are more capable to create joint value together with other chain agents. Therefore, they are now the main chain agents who drive more intense and stable governance structure in China‘s pork chain. For the other objective, to find and solve the problems in the international pork chain between Spain and China, the research gives an analysis in chapter four on the 13 international pork chain. This study gives explanations why the international trade of pork between Spain and China is not sufficient from the chain perspective. It is found that the first obstacle is the high quality and safety requirement set by Chinese government. It makes the Spanish companies difficult to get authorities to export. Other aspects, such as Spanish pork is not competitive in price compared with other countries such as Denmark, United States, Canada, etc., Chinese consumers do not have sufficient information on Spanish pork products, are also important reasons that Spain does not export great quantity of pork products to China. It is concluded that China´s government has too much concern on the quality and safety requirements to Spanish pork products, which makes trade difficult to complete. The two countries need to establish a more stable and intense trade relationship. They also should make the information exchange sufficient and efficient and try to break trade barriers. Spanish companies should consider proper price strategies to win the Chinese pork market

Optimización del Abonado Nitrogenado en el Melón (Cucumis Melo L.) Tipo Piel de Sapo

Spain is the fifth-largest producer of melon (Cucumis melo L.) and the second exporter in the world. To a national level, Castilla-La Mancha emphasize and, specifically, Ciudad Real, where is cultivated 27% of national area dedicated to this crop and 30% of melon national production. Melon crop is cultivating majority in Ciudad Real and it is mainly located in the Alto Guadiana, where the major aquifers of the region are located, the aquifer 23 or Mancha Occidental and the aquifer 24 or Campo de Montiel, both declared overexploited and vulnerable zones to nitrate pollution from agricultural sources. The problem is exacerbated because in this area, groundwater is the basic resource of supply to populations, and even often the only one. Given the importance of melon in the area, recent research has focused on the irrigation of melon crop. Unfortunately, scant information has been forthcoming on the effect of N fertilizer on melon piel de sapo crop, so it is very important to tackle in a serious study that lead to know the N requirements on the melon crop melon by reducing the risks of contamination by nitrate leaching without affecting productivity and crop quality. In fact, the recommended dose is often subjective and practice is a N overdose. In this situation, the taking of urgent measures to optimize the use of N fertilization is required. To do it, the effect of N in a melon crop, fertirrigated and on plastic mulch, was studied. The treatments consisted in different rates of N supply, considering N fertilizer and N content in irrigation water, so the treatment applied were: 30 (N30), 85 (N85), 112 (N112) and 139 (N139) Kg N ha-1 in 2005; 93 (N93), 243 (N243) and 393 (N393) kg ha-1 in 2006; and 11 (N11), 61 (N61), 95 (N95) and 148 (N148) kg ha-1 in 2007. A randomized complete-block design was used and each treatment was replicated four times. The results showed a significant effect of N on dry biomass and two patterns of growth were observed. On the one hand, a gradual increase in vegetative biomass of the plant, leaves and stem, with increasing N, and on the other hand, an increase of fruit biomass also with increasing N up to a maximum of biomass corresponding to the optimal dose determined in 90 kg ha-1 of N applied, corresponding to 160 kg ha-1 of N available for melon crop, since this optimum dose, the fruit biomass suffers a decline. A significant effect was observed in concentration and N uptake in leaf, steam, fruit and whole plant, increasing in all of them with increasing of N doses. Fast N uptake occurred from 30-35 to 70-80 days after transplanting, coinciding with the fruit development. The N had a clear influence on the melon yield, its components, skin thickness and flesh ratio. The melon yield increased, as the mean fruit weight and number of fruits per m2 with increasing N until achieve an above 95% of the maximum yield when the N applied is 90 kg ha-1 or 160 kg ha-1 of N available. When N exceeds the optimal amount, there is a decline in yield, reducing the mean fruit weight and number of fruits per square meter, and was also observed a decrease in fruit quality by increasing the skin thickness and decrease the flesh ratio, which means an increase in fruit hollowed with excessive N doses. There was a trend for all indexes of N use efficiency (NUE) to decline with increasing N rate. We observed two different behaviours in the calculation result of the NUE; on the one hand, all the efficiency indexes calculated with N applied and N available had an exponential trend, and on the other hand, all the efficiency indexes calculated with N uptake has a linear trend. The linear regression cuts the exponential curve, delimiting a range within which lies the optimum quantity of N. The N leaching as nitrates increased exponentially with the amount of N. The increase of N doses was affected on the N mineralization. There was a negative exponential effect of N available on the mineralization of this element that occurs in the soil during the growing season, calculated from the balances of this element. The study of N leaching for each N rate used, allowed to us to establish several environmental indices related to environmental risk that causes the use of such doses, a simple way for them to be included in the code of Best Management Practices.

Innovative tools to address drought risk in grazing lands

Drought spells can impose severe impacts in most vulnerable farms. It is well known that uninsured exposure exacerbates income inequality in farming systems. However, high administrative costs of traditional insurance hinder small farmers? access to risk management tools. The existence of moral hazard and systemic risk prevents the implementation of traditional insurance programs to address drought risk in rural areas. Innovative technologies like satellite images are being used to derive vegetation index which are highly correlated with drought impacts. The implementation of this technology in agricultural insurance may help to overcome some of the limitations of traditional insurance. However, basis risk has been identified as one of the main problems that hinder the acceptance of index insurance. In this paper we focus on the analyses of basis risk under different contract options in the grazing lands of the Araucanía region. A vegetation index database is used to develop an actuarial insurance model and estimate risk premiums for moderate and severe drought coverage. Risk premium sharply increases with risk coverage. In contrast with previous findings in the literature, our results are not conclusive and show that lowering the coverage level does not necessarily imply a reduction in basis risk. Further analyses of the relation between contract design and basis risk is a promising area of research that may render an important social utility for most vulnerable farming systems.

Assessment of the requirement management process using a two-stage questionnaire

This research advocates the idea that although requirements management process is not carried out in many organizations there is some people within the organization that perform some requirements management practices. However, these practices are usually not documented and as consequence are not spread across the organization. This paper proposes an assessment methodology based on a two-stage questionnaire to identify which practices of the requirements management process are performed but not documented, which practices require to be prioritized and which are not implemented due to bad management or unawareness. In order to validate the assessment methodology, the questionnaire was applied to an industrial case study.

An Integrated Approach to Strategic Asset Management

This paper focuses on identifying and analysing the elements of Strategic Management for infrastructure and engineering assets. These elements are contended to involve an understanding of governance, corporate policy, corporate objectives, corporate strategy and interagency collaboration and will in turn, allow the ability determine a broader and more comprehensive framework for engineering asset management, ie a ‘staged approach’ to understanding how assets are managed within organisations. While the assets themselves have often been the sole concern for good management practices, other social and contextual elements have come into the mix in order to promote strategic asset management. The development of an integrated approach to asset management is at the base of the research question. What are the considerations and implications for adopting and implementing an integrated strategic asset management (ISAM) framework? While operational matters have been given prominence, a subset of corporate governance, Asset Governance, details the policies and processes needed to acquire, utilise, maintain and account for an organisation’s assets. Asset governance stems from the organisation’s overarching corporate governance principles; as a result it defines the management context in which engineering asset management is implemented. This aspect will be examined to determine the appropriate relationship between organisational strategic management and strategic asset management to further the theoretical engagement with the maturity of strategy,policy and governance for infrastructure and engineered assets. Asset governance stems from the organisation’s overarching corporate governance principles; as a result it defines the management context in which engineering asset management is implemented. The research proceeds by a document analysis of corporate reports and policy recommendations in terms of infrastructure and engineered assets. The paper concludes that incorporating an integrated asset management framework can promote a more robust conceptualisation of public assets and how they combine to provide a comprehensive system of service outcomes.

Environmental risk assessment in open pit blasting operations: compliance with ISO 31010:2010

All activities of an organization involve risks that should be managed. The risk management process aids decision making by taking account of uncertainty and the possibility of future events or circumstances (intended or unintended) and their effects on agreed objectives. With that idea, new ISO Standard has been drawn up. ISO 31010 has been recently issued which provides a structured process that identifies how objectives may be affected, and analyses the risk in term of consequences and their probabilities before deciding on whether further treatment is required. In this lecture, that ISO Standard has been adapted to Open Pit Blasting Operations, focusing in Environmental effects which can be managed properly. Technique used is Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), which is applied in all possible scenarios, providing to Blasting Professionals the tools to identify, analyze and manage environmental effects in blasting operations. Also this lecture can help to minimize each effect, studying each case. This paper also can be useful to Project Managers and Occupational Health and Safety Departments (OH&S) because blasting operations can be evaluated and compared one to each other to determine the risks that should be managed in different case studies. The environmental effects studied are: ground vibrations, flyrock and air overpressure (airblast). Sometimes, blasting operations are carried out near populated areas where environmental effects may impose several limitations on the use of explosives. In those cases, where these factors approach certain limits, National Standards and Regulations have to be applied.