Challenges for future of Natural Spaces of Canary Islands, Spain

The preservation of biodiversity is a fundamental objective of a ll policies related to a more sustainable development in any modern society. The rain forest and pine forests are two unique Canarian ecosystems with high importance to global biodiversity, holding a large number of endemic species and subspecies that is a priority to preserve. In this work the challenges that will face the natural areas of the Canary Islands are studied, as well as their fundamental value for economic and environmental development of the islands.

Discrete Multi-Criteria Methods for lands use and conservation planning on La Colacha in Arroyos Menores (Río Cuarto, Province of Córdoba, Argentina)

The study area is La Colacha sub-basins from Arroyos Menores basins, natural areas at West and South of Río Cuarto in Province of Córdoba of Argentina, fertile with loess soils and monsoon temperate climate, but with soil erosions including regressive gullies that degrade them progressively. Cultivated gently since some hundred sixty years, coordinated action planning became necessary to conserve lands while keeping good agro-production. The authors had improved data on soils and on hydrology for the study area, evaluated systems of soil uses and actions to be recommended and applied Decision Support Systems (DSS) tools for that, and were conducted to use discrete multi-criteria models (MCDM) for the more global views about soil conservation and hydraulic management actions and about main types of use of soils. For that they used weighted PROMETHEE, ELECTRE, and AHP methods with a system of criteria grouped as environmental, economic and social, and criteria from their data on effects of criteria. The alternatives resulting offer indication for planning depending somehow on sub basins and on selections of weights, but actions for conservation of soils and water management measures are recommended to conserve the basins conditions, actually sensibly degrading, mainly keeping actual uses of the lands.

Uso de una red inalámbrica de sensores para estimar riesgo de incendio

Una red inalámbrica de sensores (Wireless Sensor Network, WSN) constituye un sistema de comunicación de datos flexible utilizado como alternativa a las redes cableadas o como extensión de éstas y está compuesta por elementos de cómputo, medición y comunicación, que permiten al administrador instrumentar, observar y reaccionar a eventos y fenómenos en un ambiente específico. Una de las aplicaciones de estas redes es su uso en sistemas de predicción y prevención de incendios en áreas naturales. Su implementación se basa en el despliegue de sensores inalámbricos, realizado en una zona de riesgo de incendio para que puedan recolectar información sobre parámetros ambientales como temperatura, humedad, luz o presión, entre otros. Desde una estación base (o nodo "sumidero"), se suministra la información de los sensores a un centro de monitorización y control de forma estructurada. En este centro la información recibida puede ser analizada, procesada y visualizada en tiempo real. Desde este centro de control se puede controlar también la red WSN modificando el comportamiento de los sensores según el nivel de riesgo de incendio detectado. Este proyecto se basa en el diseño, implementación y despliegue de una red inalámbrica de sensores en un entorno simulado para observar su comportamiento en diferentes situaciones y mostrar su eficacia ante un posible caso de incendio. La implementación de este sistema denominado Sistema de Estimación de Riesgo de Incendio Utilizando una WSN (SERIUW) , junto con el desarrollado, en paralelo, de otro proyecto denominado Sistema de Control y Visualización de Información sobre Riesgo de Incendio (SCVIRI) que implementa las funciones de los centros de monitorización y control, conforman un Sistema de Anticipación y Seguimiento de Fuegos (SASF). Se han realizado pruebas de funcionalidad y eficacia, incluidas en la presente memoria del sistema unitario de en conjunto (ambos proyectos), en un entorno controlado simulado. Este sistema es una solución para la lucha contra los incendios forestales ya que predice y previene, de forma temprana, posibles incendios en las áreas naturales bajo supervisión. Ante un evento de incendio declarado este sistema es un poderoso instrumento de apoyo permitiendo, por un lado, generar alertas automáticas (con localización y gravedad de fuegos detectados) y por el otro, hacer un seguimiento del incendio con mapas en tiempo real (con su consecuente apoyo para la protección e información con las brigadas de bomberos en las zonas activas). ABSTRACT. A wireless sensor network (WSN) is a flexible data communication system used as an alternative to wired networks or as an extension of them and consists of nodes that perform calculation, measurement and communication activities. This allows the administrator to observe and react to events and phenomena in a specific environment. One application of these networks is fire prediction and prevention in natural areas. Its implementation is based on a deployment of wireless sensors, in a fire risk area, capable of collecting information such as temperature, humidity, luminance and pressure. A base station (or "sink") sends the collected information to a monitoring and control center following a structured format. At this center, the information received can be analyzed, processed and displayed in real time with monitoring systems. From this control center the WSN can also be controlled by changing the sensors behavior according to the level of fire risk detection. This project is based on the design, implementation and deployment of a Wireless Sensor Network (WSN) in a simulated environment in order to observe its behavior in different situations and show its effectiveness against a possible fire environment. The implementation of this system called SERIUW, has been done in parallel with other system, called SCVIRI, which has been developed in another project that implements the functions of monitoring and control center. Together, these two systems, make up a general system of anticipation and monitoring of fires. Functionality and performance tests have been performed on the overall system, in a controlled and simulated environment. The results of these tests are included in this document. The global system is a solution to fight the forest fires because it makes it easier to predict and prevent, early, possible fires in natural areas under supervision. This sytem can be a powerful tool since, before a fire event is declared, it generates automatic alerts (including location and severity information) and allows the real-time motorization of fire evolution integrated with maps. This could be also very useful for the support protection and information of fire brigades in zones in which a fire is already active.

Sistema de control y visualización de información sobre riesgo de incendios

Una red inalámbrica de sensores (Wireless Sensor Network, WSN) constituye un sistema de comunicación de datos flexible utilizado como alternativa a las redes cableadas o como extensión de éstas. Una de las aplicaciones de estas redes es para su uso en sistemas de predicción y prevención de incendios en áreas naturales. Su implementación se basa en el despliegue de sensores inalámbricos, realizado en una zona de riesgo de incendio que puedan recolectar información tal como temperatura, humedad y presión. Desde una estación base (o nodo "sumidero"), se suministra la información de los sensores a un centro de monitorización y control de forma estructurada. En estos centros la información recibida puede ser analizada, procesada y visualizada en tiempo real. Desde este centro de control se puede controlar también la red WSN modificando el comportamiento de los sensores según el nivel de riesgo de incendio detectado. Este proyecto se basa en el diseño, desarrollo e implementación de un Sistema de Control y Visualización de Información sobre Riesgo de Incendio (SCVIRI), que implementa las funciones de los centros de monitorización y control. La implementación de este sistema, junto con el desarrollado, en paralelo, de otro proyecto denominado Sistema de Estimación de Riesgo de Incendio Utilizando una WSN (SERIUW) que implementa la emulación de la red WSN, conforman un sistema general de anticipación y seguimiento de Fuegos. Se han realizado pruebas de funcionalidad y eficacia, incluidas en la presente memoria del sistema general (ambos proyectos), en un entorno controlado simulado. Este sistema es una solución para la lucha contra los incendios forestales ya que predice y previene, de forma temprana, posibles incendios en las áreas naturales bajo supervisión. Ante un evento de incendio declarado este sistema es un poderoso instrumento de apoyo permitiendo, por un lado, generar alertas automáticas (con localización y gravedad de fuegos detectados) y por el otro, hacer un seguimiento del incendio con mapas en tiempo real (con su consecuente apoyo para la protección e información con las brigadas de bomberos en las zonas activas). ABSTRACT. A wireless sensor network (WSN) is a flexible data communication system used as an alternative to wired networks or as an extension of them. One possible application of these networks is related to fire prediction and prevention in natural areas. Its implementation is based on a deployment of wireless sensors, in an area with high or moderate fire risk, to collect information such as temperature, humidity, luminance and pressure. A base station (or "sink") sends the collected information to a monitoring and control center according to an agreed structured format. At this center, the information received can be analyzed, processed and displayed in real time by using monitoring systems. From this control center the WSN can also be controlled by changing the sensors behavior in consistence with the detected level of fire risk. The work carried out in this project consists on the design, development and implementation of a system named SCVIRI, which implements the functions of the aforementioned monitoring and control center. This system works in connection with other one, called SERIUW, which has been developed in a different project and implements the WSN in an emulated environment. These two systems working together make up a general system of anticipation and monitoring of fires. This document also includes the functionality and performance tests performed on the overall system in a controlled and simulated environment. The global system is a solution that makes it easier to predict and prevent possible fires in natural areas under supervision. This system can be a powerful tool since, before a fire event is declared, it generates automatic alerts (including location and severity information) and allows the real-time motorization of fire evolution and its graphical visualization on maps. This could be also very useful for providing fire brigades with support, protection and information in zones in which a fire is already active.

Quantifying the relationship between drainage networks at hillslope scale and particle size distribution at pedon scale

Nowadays, translating information about hydrologic and soil properties and processes across scales has emerged as a major theme in soil science and hydrology, and suitable theories for upscaling or downscaling hydrologic and soil information are being looked forward. The recognition of low-order catchments as self-organized systems suggests the existence of a great amount of links at different scales between their elements. The objective of this work was to research in areas of homogeneous bedrock material, the relationship between the hierarchical structure of the drainage networks at hillslope scale and the heterogeneity of the particle-size distribution at pedon scale. One of the most innovative elements in this work is the choice of the parameters to quantify the organization level of the studied features. The fractal dimension has been selected to measure the hierarchical structure of the drainage networks, while the Balanced Entropy Index (BEI) has been the chosen parameter to quantify the heterogeneity of the particle-size distribution from textural data. These parameters have made it possible to establish quantifiable relationships between two features attached to different steps in the scale range. Results suggest that the bedrock lithology of the landscape constrains the architecture of the drainage networks developed on it and the particle soil distribution resulting in the fragmentation processes.

Quantifying the relationship between drainage networks at hillslope scale and particle size distribution at pedon scale

Nowadays, translating information about hydrologic and soil properties and processes across scales has emerged as a major theme in soil science and hydrology, and suitable theories for upscaling or downscaling hydrologic and soil information are being looked forward. The recognition of low-order catchments as self-organized systems suggests the existence of a great amount of links at different scales between their elements. The objective of this work was to research in areas of homogeneous bedrock material, the relationship between the hierarchical structure of the drainage networks at hillslope scale and the heterogeneity of the particle-size distribution at pedon scale. One of the most innovative elements in this work is the choice of the parameters to quantify the organization level of the studied features. The fractal dimension has been selected to measure the hierarchical structure of the drainage networks, while the Balanced Entropy Index (BEI) has been the chosen parameter to quantify the heterogeneity of the particle-size distribution from textural data. These parameters have made it possible to establish quantifiable relationships between two features attached to different steps in the scale range. Results suggest that the bedrock lithology of the landscape constrains the architecture of the drainage networks developed on it and the particle soil distribution resulting in the fragmentation processes.

Planning and Management of Mobility in Natural Protected Areas

The paper describes some relevant results of an on-going research aiming to elaborate a methodology to help the mobility management in natural parks, compatible with their protection missions: it has been developed a procedure to reproduce the mobility-environment relationships in various operational conditions. The final purpose is the identification of: a) the effects of various choices in transport planning, both at long term and strategic level; b) the most effective policies of mobility management. The work is articulated in the following steps: 1) definition of protected area on the basis of ecological and socio-economic criteria and legislative constraints; 2) analysis of mobility needs in the protected areas; 3) reconstruction of the state of the art of mobility management in natural parks at European level; 4) analysis of used traffic flows measurement methods; 5) analysis of environmental impacts due to transport systems modelling (air pollution and noise only); 6) identification of mitigation measures to be potentially applied. The whole methodology has been tested and validated on Italian case studies: i) the concerned area has been zoned according to the land-use peculiarities; ii) the local situations of transport infrastructure (roads and parking), services (public transport systems) and rules (traffic regulations) have been mapped with references to physical and functional attributes; iii) the mobility, both systematic and touristic, has been represented in an origin-destination matrix. By means of an assignment model the flows have been distributed and the corresponding average speeds to quantify gaseous and noise emissions was calculated, the criticalities in the reference scenario have been highlighted, as well as some alternative scenarios, including both operational and infrastructural measures have been identified. The comparison between projects and reference scenario allowed the quantification of effects (variation of emissions) for each scenario and a selection of the most effective management actions to be taken.

Land use modelling and the role of stakeholders in natural protected areas: the case of Doñana national park, Spain

Doñana, a National Park since 1969, a UNESCO site since 1994 among other protected area designations of national and international character, is a coastal dune and marshland ecosystem of outstanding importance for biodiversity and conservation at the mouth of the Guadalaquivir River, Southwest Spain. However, the Doñana natural area is seriously threatened by global change factors such as humanly induced climate change, habitat loss, overexploitation of ecosystem services, and pollution. Not all stakeholders are convinced of the benefits of the national park, and management of Doñana, its environs and watershed are the subject of intense disagreement. This interplay between natural characteristics of great value with intense human pressure makes Doñana a fascinating workshop for the study of global human environment interactions. Here, we discuss the role of stakeholders in the application of a cellular automatabased model to Doñana and its environs and present the results of a series of exercises undertaken with stakeholders to parametrize the model, something often done by researchers without stakeholder engagement. By engaging with stakeholders early in the project, feedback generated from workshops contributes to model development. Stakeholders are therefore contributors of empirical data for the model as well as independent evaluators providing local and specialist knowledge.

Development of mathematical models to elaborate strategies, select alternatives and development of plans for adaptation of communities to climate change in different geographical areas including costs to implement it.

There is evidence that the climate changes and that now, the change is influenced and accelerated by the CO2 augmentation in atmosphere due to combustion by humans. Such ?Climate change? is on the policy agenda at the global level, with the aim of understanding and reducing its causes and to mitigate its consequences. In most countries and international organisms UNO (e.g. Rio de Janeiro 1992), OECD, EC, etc . . . the efforts and debates have been directed to know the possible causes, to predict the future evolution of some variable conditioners, and trying to make studies to fight against the effects or to delay the negative evolution of such. The Protocol of Kyoto 1997 set international efforts about CO2 emissions, but it was partial and not followed e.g. by USA and China . . . , and in Durban 2011 the ineffectiveness of humanity on such global real challenges was set as evident. Among all that, the elaboration of a global model was not boarded that can help to choose the best alternative between the feasible ones, to elaborate the strategies and to evaluate the costs, and the authors propose to enter in that frame for study. As in all natural, technological and social changes, the best-prepared countries will have the best bear and the more rapid recover. In all the geographic areas the alternative will not be the same one, but the model must help us to make the appropriated decision. It is essential to know those areas that are more sensitive to the negative effects of climate change, the parameters to take into account for its evaluation, and comprehensive plans to deal with it. The objective of this paper is to elaborate a mathematical model support of decisions, which will allow to develop and to evaluate alternatives of adaptation to the climatic change of different communities in Europe and Latin-America, mainly in especially vulnerable areas to the climatic change, considering in them all the intervening factors. The models will consider criteria of physical type (meteorological, edaphic, water resources), of use of the ground (agriculturist, forest, mining, industrial, urban, tourist, cattle dealer), economic (income, costs, benefits, infrastructures), social (population), politician (implementation, legislation), educative (Educational programs, diffusion) and environmental, at the present moment and the future. The intention is to obtain tools for aiding to get a realistic position for these challenges, which are an important part of the future problems of humanity in next decades.

Cálculo de la recarga natural en grandes áreas, en función de la litología y la precipitación = Calculation of natural recharge in large areas, as a function of lithology and rainfall

En una región amplia como España se demuestra —mediante inferencias estadísticas sobre una muestra completa de 875 manantiales en los que se conoce su caudal medio y la litología de su área de alimentación y que han sido agrupados en regiones de distinta pluviometría— que la recarga media anual es una fracción fija de la precipitación media para cada litología. Se han establecido así unas tasas de recarga respecto de la precipitación para seis grupos litológicos de diferente permeabilidad: arenas, gravas y formaciones aluviales en general, 8.3%; conglomerados, 5.6%; areniscas, 7.3%; calizas y dolomías, 34.3%; margas, margocalizas, limos y arcillas, 3.3%; otras rocas, 1.3%. Teniendo en cuenta la representatividad de España, la cual tiene una gran variabilidad de litología, pluviometría, topografía, etcétera, estas tasas de recarga respecto de la precipita-ción son probablemente valores cuasi universales que pueden ser utilizados para estimar la recarga media o los recursos hídricos subterráneos medios de regiones amplias en cualquier parte del mundo, salvo en regiones especiales, como las que tienen permafrost, por ejemplo. En todo caso, estas tasas de recarga podrían ser retocadas para cada región según sus particulares características. Los datos de precipitación y litología son muy corrientes, por lo que el método puede ser ampliamente utilizado para completar balances hidráulicos.In a region as large as Spain, annual mean recharge is shown to be a fixed proportion of the mean rainfall for each lithology. This determination is based on statistical inferences from a complete sample of 875 springs for which mean flow and catchment areas are known and which have been grouped into distinct rainfall regions. Recharge rates have thus been established with respect to rainfall for six lithological groups with different permeability: sands, gravels and generally alluvial formations, 8.3%; conglomerates, 5.6%; sandstones, 7.3%; limestone and dolomite 34.3%; marls, marly limestones, silts and clays, 3.3%; and hard rocks, 1.3%. Considering the representativeness of Spain, which is large in size and has a highly varied lithology, topography and rainfall, these recharge rates for rainfall are probably quasi-universal values that can be used to estimate average recharge or average groundwater resources of large regions in any part of the world (except in special cases such as areas with permafrost, for example). For any case, these recharge rates can be adapted to each region according to its particular characteristics. Rainfall and lithology data are very common, and so the method can be widely used to calculate hydraulic balances.

A Landscape-based Regionalization of Natural Flow Regimes in the Ebro River Basin and its Biological Validation. River Research and Applications

Regionalización de tipos de régimen natural de caudales en la cuenca del Ebro y validación biológica de los tipos de regímen natural.

Volume, Surface, Connectivity and Size Distribution of Soil Pore Space in CT Images: Comparison of Samples at Different Depths from Nearby Natural and Tillage Areas

The study of soil structure, i.e., the pores, is of vital importance in different fields of science and technology. Total pore volume (porosity), pore surface, pore connectivity and pore size distribution are some (probably the most important) of the geometric measurements of pore space. The technology of X-ray computed tomography allows us to obtain 3D images of the inside of a soil sample enabling study of the pores without disturbing the samples. In this work we performed a set of geometrical measures, some of them from mathematical morphology, to assess and quantify any possible difference that tillage may have caused on the soil. We compared samples from tilled soil with samples from a soil with natural vegetation taken in a very close area. Our results show that the main differences between these two groups of samples are total surface area and pore connectivity per unit pore volume.

Planning and management of mobility in natural protected areas

The final purpose is the identification of: a) the effects of various choices in transport planning, both at long term and strategic level; b) the most effective policies of mobility management. The preliminary work was articulated in the following steps: 1) definition of protected area on the basis of ecological and socio-economic criteria and legislative constraints; 2) analysis of mobility needs in the protected areas; 3) reconstruction of the state of the art of mobility management in natural parks at European level; 4) analysis of used traffic flows measurement methods; 5) analysis of environmental impacts due to transport systems modelling (limited to air pollution and noise); 6) identification of mitigation measures to the potentially applied. The whole methodology has been firstly tested on the case study of the National Park of ?Gran Sasso and Monti della Laga? and further validated on the National Park of ?Gargano?, both located Italy: i) the concerned area has been zoned according to the land-use peculiarities; ii) the local situations of transport infrastructure (roads and parking), services (public transport systems) and rules (traffic regulations) have been mapped with references to physical and functional attributes; iii) the mobility, both systematic and touristic, has been synthetically represented in an origin-destination matrix. By means of an assignment model it has been determined the distribution of flows and the corresponding average speeds to quantify gaseous and noise emissions. On this basis the environmental criticalities in the reference scenario have been highlighted, as well as some alternative scenarios including both operational and infrastructural measures have been identified. The comparison between the projects and the reference scenario allowed the quantification of the effects (variation of emissions) for each scenario and a selection of the most effective management actions to be taken.

Context modelling for natural Human Computer Interaction applications in e-health

The conception of IoT (Internet of Things) is accepted as the future tendency of Internet among academia and industry. It will enable people and things to be connected at anytime and anyplace, with anything and anyone. IoT has been proposed to be applied into many areas such as Healthcare, Transportation，Logistics, and Smart environment etc. However, this thesis emphasizes on the home healthcare area as it is the potential healthcare model to solve many problems such as the limited medical resources, the increasing demands for healthcare from elderly and chronic patients which the traditional model is not capable of. A remarkable change in IoT in semantic oriented vision is that vast sensors or devices are involved which could generate enormous data. Methods to manage the data including acquiring, interpreting, processing and storing data need to be implemented. Apart from this, other abilities that IoT is not capable of are concluded, namely, interoperation, context awareness and security & privacy. Context awareness is an emerging technology to manage and take advantage of context to enable any type of system to provide personalized services. The aim of this thesis is to explore ways to facilitate context awareness in IoT. In order to realize this objective, a preliminary research is carried out in this thesis. The most basic premise to realize context awareness is to collect, model, understand, reason and make use of context. A complete literature review for the existing context modelling and context reasoning techniques is conducted. The conclusion is that the ontology-based context modelling and ontology-based context reasoning are the most promising and efficient techniques to manage context. In order to fuse ontology into IoT, a specific ontology-based context awareness framework is proposed for IoT applications. In general, the framework is composed of eight components which are hardware, UI (User Interface), Context modelling, Context fusion, Context reasoning, Context repository, Security unit and Context dissemination. Moreover, on the basis of TOVE (Toronto Virtual Enterprise), a formal ontology developing methodology is proposed and illustrated which consists of four stages: Specification & Conceptualization, Competency Formulation, Implementation and Validation & Documentation. In addition, a home healthcare scenario is elaborated by listing its well-defined functionalities. Aiming at representing this specific scenario, the proposed ontology developing methodology is applied and the ontology-based model is developed in a free and open-source ontology editor called Protégé. Finally, the accuracy and completeness of the proposed ontology are validated to show that this proposed ontology is able to accurately represent the scenario of interest.

A multi-scale analysis of transforming agricultural markets in the context of globalization: implications for natural resources, food prices and rural poverty in Latin America

Vivimos una época en la que el mundo se transforma aceleradamente. La globalización está siguiendo un curso imparable, la población mundial así como la población urbana siguen creciendo, y en los países emergentes los ingresos promedios aumentan, resultando en un cambio también acelerado de las dietas y hábitos alimentarios. En conjunto esos factores están causando un aumento fundamental de la demanda de alimentos. Junto con la apertura de los mercados agrícolas, estos procesos han provocado un crecimiento del comercio internacional de alimentos durante la última década. Dado que muchos países de América Latina están dotados de abundancia de recursos naturales, estas tendencias han producido un crecimiento rápido de las exportaciones de bienes primarios desde América Latina al resto del mundo. En sólo 30 años la participación en el mercado agrícola de América Latina casi se ha duplicado, desde 10% en 1980 a 18% en 2010. Este aumento del comercio agrícola ha dado lugar a un debate sobre una serie de cuestiones cruciales relacionadas con los impactos del comercio en la seguridad alimentaria mundial, en el medio ambiente o en la reducción de la pobreza rural en países en desarrollo. Esta tesis aplica un marco integrado para analizar varios impactos relacionados con la transformación de los mercados agrícolas y los mercados rurales debidos a la globalización y, en particular, al progresivo aumento del comercio internacional. En concreto, la tesis aborda los siguientes temas: En primer lugar, la producción mundial de alimentos tendrá que aumentar considerablemente para poder satisfacer la demanda de una población mundial de 9000 millones personas en 2050, lo cual plantea grandes desafíos sobre los sistemas de la producción de alimentos. Alcanzar este logro, sin comprometer la integridad del medio ambiente en regiones exportadoras, es un reto aún mayor. En este contexto, la tesis analiza los efectos de la liberalización del comercio mundial, considerando distintas tecnologías de producción agraria, sobre unos indicadores de seguridad alimentaria en diferentes regiones del mundo y sobre distintos indicadores ambientales, teniendo en cuenta escalas diferentes en América Latina y el Caribe. La tesis utiliza el modelo “International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT)” – un modelo dinámico de equilibrio parcial del sector agrícola a escala global – para modelar la apertura de los mercados agrícolas así como diferentes escenarios de la producción hasta el año 2050. Los resultados del modelo están vinculados a modelos biofísicos para poder evaluar los cambios en la huella hídrica y la calidad del agua, así como para cuantificar los impactos del cambio en el uso del suelo sobre la biodiversidad y los stocks de carbono en 2050. Los resultados indican que la apertura de los mercados agrícolas es muy importante para mejorar la seguridad alimentaria a nivel mundial, sin embargo, produce también presiones ambientales indeseables en algunas regiones de América Latina. Contrastando dos escenarios que consideran distintas modos de producción, la expansión de la tierra agrícola frente a un escenario de la producción más intensiva, se demuestra que las mejoras de productividad son generalmente superiores a la expansión de las tierras agrícolas, desde un punto de vista económico e ambiental. En cambio, los escenarios de intensificación sostenible no sólo hacen posible una mayor producción de alimentos, sino que también generan menos impactos medioambientales que los otros escenarios futuros en todas sus dimensiones: biodiversidad, carbono, emisiones de nitratos y uso del agua. El análisis muestra que hay un “trade-off” entre el objetivo de alcanzar la sostenibilidad ambiental y el objetivo de la seguridad alimentaria, independiente del manejo agrícola en el futuro. En segundo lugar, a la luz de la reciente crisis de los precios de alimentos en los años 2007/08, la tesis analiza los impactos de la apertura de los mercados agrícolas en la transmisión de precios de los alimentos en seis países de América Latina: Argentina, Brasil, Chile, Colombia, México y el Perú. Para identificar las posibles relaciones de cointegración entre los índices de precios al consumidor de alimentos y los índices de precios de agrarios internacionales, sujetos a diferentes grados de apertura de mercados agrícolas en los seis países de América Latina, se utiliza un modelo simple de corrección de error (single equation error correction). Los resultados indican que la integración global de los mercados agrícolas ha dado lugar a diferentes tasas de transmisión de precios en los países investigados. Sobre todo en el corto plazo, las tasas de transmisión dependen del grado de apertura comercial, mientras que en el largo plazo las tasas de transmisión son elevadas, pero en gran medida independientes del régimen de comercio. Por lo tanto, durante un período de shocks de precios mundiales una mayor apertura del comercio trae consigo más inestabilidad de los precios domésticos a corto plazo y la resultante persistencia en el largo plazo. Sin embargo, estos resultados no verifican necesariamente la utilidad de las políticas comerciales, aplicadas frecuentemente por los gobiernos para amortiguar los shocks de precios. Primero, porque existe un riesgo considerable de volatilidad de los precios debido a cambios bruscos de la oferta nacional si se promueve la autosuficiencia en el país; y segundo, la política de proteccionismo asume el riesgo de excluir el país de participar en las cadenas de suministro de alto valor del sector agrícola, y por lo tanto esa política podría obstaculizar el desarrollo económico. Sin embargo, es indispensable establecer políticas efectivas para reducir la vulnerabilidad de los hogares a los aumentos repentinos de precios de alimentos, lo cual requiere una planificación gubernamental precisa con el presupuesto requerido disponible. En tercer lugar, la globalización afecta a la estructura de una economía y, por medios distintos, la distribución de los ingreso en un país. Perú sirve como ejemplo para investigar más profundamente las cuestiones relacionadas con los cambios en la distribución de los ingresos en zonas rurales. Perú, que es un país que está cada vez más integrado en los mercados mundiales, consiguió importantes descensos en la pobreza extrema en sus zonas rurales, pero a la vez adolece de alta incidencia de pobreza moderada y de desigualdad de los ingresos en zonas rural al menos durante el periodo comprendido entre 2004 y 2012. Esta parte de la tesis tiene como objetivo identificar las fuerzas impulsoras detrás de estas dinámicas en el Perú mediante el uso de un modelo de microsimulación basado en modelos de generación de ingresos aplicado a nivel los hogares rurales. Los resultados indican que la fuerza principal detrás de la reducción de la pobreza ha sido el crecimiento económico general de la economía, debido a las condiciones macroeconómicas favorables durante el periodo de estudio. Estos efectos de crecimiento beneficiaron a casi todos los sectores rurales, y dieron lugar a la disminución de la pobreza rural extrema, especialmente entre los agricultores de papas y de maíz. En parte, estos agricultores probablemente se beneficiaron de la apertura de los mercados agrícolas, que es lo que podría haber provocado un aumento de los precios al productor en tiempos de altos precios mundiales de los alimentos. Sin embargo, los resultados también sugieren que para una gran parte de la población más pobre existían barreras de entrada a la hora de poder participar en el empleo asalariado fuera de la agricultura o en la producción de cultivos de alto valor. Esto podría explicarse por la falta de acceso a unos activos importantes: por ejemplo, el nivel de educación de los pobres era apenas mejor en 2012 que en 2004; y también las dotaciones de tierra y de mano de obra, sobre todo de los productores pobres de maíz y patata, disminuyeron entre 2004 y 2012. Esto lleva a la conclusión de que aún hay margen para aplicar políticas para facilitar el acceso a estos activos, que podría contribuir a la erradicación de la pobreza rural. La tesis concluye que el comercio agrícola puede ser un importante medio para abastecer una población mundial creciente y más rica con una cantidad suficiente de calorías. Para evitar adversos efectos ambientales e impactos negativos para los consumidores y de los productores pobres, el enfoque debe centrarse en las mejoras de la productividad agrícola, teniendo en cuenta los límites ambientales y ser socialmente inclusivo. En este sentido, será indispensable seguir desarrollando soluciones tecnológicas que garanticen prácticas de producción agrícola minimizando el uso de recursos naturales. Además, para los pequeños pobres agricultores será fundamental eliminar las barreras de entrada a los mercados de exportación que podría tener efectos indirectos favorables a través de la adopción de nuevas tecnologías alcanzables a través de mercados internacionales. ABSTRACT The world is in a state of rapid transition. Ongoing globalization, population growth, rising living standards and increasing urbanization, accompanied by changing dietary patterns throughout the world, are increasing the demand for food. Together with more open trade regimes, this has triggered growing international agricultural trade during the last decade. For many Latin American countries, which are gifted with relative natural resource abundance, these trends have fueled rapid export growth of primary goods. In just 30 years, the Latin American agricultural market share has almost doubled from 10% in 1980 to 18% in 2010. These market developments have given rise to a debate around a number of crucial issues related to the role of agricultural trade for global food security, for the environment or for poverty reduction in developing countries. This thesis uses an integrated framework to analyze a broad array of possible impacts related to transforming agricultural and rural markets in light of globalization, and in particular of increasing trade activity. Specifically, the following issues are approached: First, global food production will have to rise substantially by the year 2050 to meet effective demand of a nine billion people world population which poses major challenges to food production systems. Doing so without compromising environmental integrity in exporting regions is an even greater challenge. In this context, the thesis explores the effects of future global trade liberalization on food security indicators in different world regions and on a variety of environmental indicators at different scales in Latin America and the Caribbean, in due consideration of different future agricultural production practices. The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) –a global dynamic partial equilibrium model of the agricultural sector developed by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)– is applied to run different future production scenarios, and agricultural trade regimes out to 2050. Model results are linked to biophysical models, used to assess changes in water footprints and water quality, as well as impacts on biodiversity and carbon stocks from land use change by 2050. Results indicate that further trade liberalization is crucial for improving food security globally, but that it would also lead to more environmental pressures in some regions across Latin America. Contrasting land expansion versus more intensified agriculture shows that productivity improvements are generally superior to agricultural land expansion, from an economic and environmental point of view. Most promising for achieving food security and environmental goals, in equal measure, is the sustainable intensification scenario. However, the analysis shows that there are trade-offs between environmental and food security goals for all agricultural development paths. Second, in light of the recent food price crisis of 2007/08, the thesis looks at the impacts of increasing agricultural market integration on food price transmission from global to domestic markets in six Latin American countries, namely Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru. To identify possible cointegrating relationships between the domestic food consumer price indices and world food price levels, subject to different degrees of agricultural market integration in the six Latin American countries, a single equation error correction model is used. Results suggest that global agricultural market integration has led to different levels of price path-through in the studied countries. Especially in the short-run, transmission rates depend on the degree of trade openness, while in the long-run transmission rates are high, but largely independent of the country-specific trade regime. Hence, under world price shocks more trade openness brings with it more price instability in the short-term and the resulting persistence in the long-term. However, these findings do not necessarily verify the usefulness of trade policies, often applied by governments to buffer such price shocks. First, because there is a considerable risk of price volatility due to domestic supply shocks if self-sufficiency is promoted. Second, protectionism bears the risk of excluding a country from participating in beneficial high-value agricultural supply chains, thereby hampering economic development. Nevertheless, to reduce households’ vulnerability to sudden and large increases of food prices, effective policies to buffer food price shocks should be put in place, but must be carefully planned with the required budget readily available. Third, globalization affects the structure of an economy and, by different means, the distribution of income in a country. Peru serves as an example to dive deeper into questions related to changes in the income distribution in rural areas. Peru, a country being increasingly integrated into global food markets, experienced large drops in extreme rural poverty, but persistently high rates of moderate rural poverty and rural income inequality between 2004 and 2012. The thesis aims at disentangling the driving forces behind these dynamics by using a microsimulation model based on rural household income generation models. Results provide evidence that the main force behind poverty reduction was overall economic growth of the economy due to generally favorable macroeconomic market conditions. These growth effects benefited almost all rural sectors, and led to declines in extreme rural poverty, especially among potato and maize farmers. In part, these farmers probably benefited from policy changes towards more open trade regimes and the resulting higher producer prices in times of elevated global food price levels. However, the results also suggest that entry barriers existed for the poorer part of the population to participate in well-paid wage-employment outside of agriculture or in high-value crop production. This could be explained by a lack of sufficient access to important rural assets. For example, poor people’s educational attainment was hardly better in 2012 than in 2004. Also land and labor endowments, especially of (poor) maize and potato growers, rather decreased than increased over time. This leads to the conclusion that there is still scope for policy action to facilitate access to these assets, which could contribute to the eradication of rural poverty. The thesis concludes that agricultural trade can be one important means to provide a growing and richer world population with sufficient amounts of calories. To avoid adverse environmental effects and negative impacts for poor food consumers and producers, the focus should lie on agricultural productivity improvements, considering environmental limits and be socially inclusive. In this sense, it will be crucial to further develop technological solutions that guarantee resource-sparing agricultural production practices, and to remove entry barriers for small poor farmers to export markets which might allow for technological spill-over effects from high-value global agricultural supply chains.