Impacts of projected maximum temperature extremes for C21 by an ensemble of regional climate models on cereal cropping systems in the Iberian Peninsula

Crops growing in the Iberian Peninsula may be subjected to damagingly high temperatures during the sensitive development periods of flowering and grain filling. Such episodes are considered important hazards and farmers may take insurance to offset their impact. Increases in value and frequency of maximum temperature have been observed in the Iberian Peninsula during the 20th century, and studies on climate change indicate the possibility of further increase by the end of the 21st century. Here, impacts of current and future high temperatures on cereal cropping systems of the Iberian Peninsula are evaluated, focusing on vulnerable development periods of winter and summer crops. Climate change scenarios obtained from an ensemble of ten Regional Climate Models (multimodel ensemble) combined with crop simulation models were used for this purpose and related uncertainty was estimated. Results reveal that higher extremes of maximum temperature represent a threat to summer-grown but not to winter-grown crops in the Iberian Peninsula. The study highlights the different vulnerability of crops in the two growing seasons and the need to account for changes in extreme temperatures in developing adaptations in cereal cropping systems. Finally, this work contributes to clarifying the causes of high-uncertainty impact projections from previous studies.

Comparison of methods for downscaling runoff from regional climate models in Spanish basins

At present there is much literature that refers to the advantages and disadvantages of different methods of statistical and dynamical downscaling of climate variables projected by climate models. Less attention has been paid to other indirect variables, like runoff, which play a significant role in evaluating the impact of climate change on hydrological systems. Runoff presents a much greater bias in climate models than other climate variables, like temperature or precipitation. It is very important to identify the methods that minimize bias while downscaling runoff from the gridded results of climate models to the basin scale

Aerial video geo-registration using terrain models from dense and coherent stereo matching

In the context of aerial imagery, one of the first steps toward a coherent processing of the information contained in multiple images is geo-registration, which consists in assigning geographic 3D coordinates to the pixels of the image. This enables accurate alignment and geo-positioning of multiple images, detection of moving objects and fusion of data acquired from multiple sensors. To solve this problem there are different approaches that require, in addition to a precise characterization of the camera sensor, high resolution referenced images or terrain elevation models, which are usually not publicly available or out of date. Building upon the idea of developing technology that does not need a reference terrain elevation model, we propose a geo-registration technique that applies variational methods to obtain a dense and coherent surface elevation model that is used to replace the reference model. The surface elevation model is built by interpolation of scattered 3D points, which are obtained in a two-step process following a classical stereo pipeline: first, coherent disparity maps between image pairs of a video sequence are estimated and then image point correspondences are back-projected. The proposed variational method enforces continuity of the disparity map not only along epipolar lines (as done by previous geo-registration techniques) but also across them, in the full 2D image domain. In the experiments, aerial images from synthetic video sequences have been used to validate the proposed technique.

Examining wheat yield sensitivity to temperature and precipitation changes for a large ensemble of crop models using impact response surfaces

Impact response surfaces (IRSs) depict the response of an impact variable to changes in two explanatory variables as a plotted surface. Here, IRSs of spring and winter wheat yields were constructed from a 25-member ensemble of process-based crop simulation models. Twenty-one models were calibrated by different groups using a common set of calibration data, with calibrations applied independently to the same models in three cases. The sensitivity of modelled yield to changes in temperature and precipitation was tested by systematically modifying values of 1981-2010 baseline weather data to span the range of 19 changes projected for the late 21st century at three locations in Europe.