Agricultural trade and prosperity

In an environment where there is no communication between different social levels and which is suffering an increasing demand in agricultural production, agribusiness and quality, trade, as a regulator of the supply and demand, has a strong impact on the economic and environmental areas as well as on the farmers quality of life. This entails the need to find a sustainable and fair balance between the different parties (farmers and traders). This paper seeks to find this balance through the integration of trade with prosperity, understood not from a purely economic point of view, but as an improvement in life quality. This proposal is framed within Working With People (WWP) as the main conceptual base for achieving concrete actions that will promote a rapprochement between the parties that will lead to the sector?s sustainable resilience. This will be achieved through a exhaustive review of scientific literature in order to analyze and develop the state of the art of the concepts involved. The result is a conceptual proposal presented from the three dimensions of the WWP model: technical-entrepeneurial, ethical-social, political-contextual"

Análisis de los factores determinantes de la repetición del proceso de compra en el comercio electrónico entre empresas y consumidores finales. Aplicación al mercado español

Las Tecnologías de la Información y la Comunicación en general e Internet en particular han supuesto una revolución en nuestra forma de comunicarnos, relacionarnos, producir, comprar y vender acortando tiempo y distancias entre proveedores y consumidores. A la paulatina penetración del ordenador, los teléfonos inteligentes y la banda ancha fija y/o móvil ha seguido un mayor uso de estas tecnologías entre ciudadanos y empresas. El comercio electrónico empresa–consumidor (B2C) alcanzó en 2010 en España un volumen de 9.114 millones de euros, con un incremento del 17,4% respecto al dato registrado en 2009. Este crecimiento se ha producido por distintos hechos: un incremento en el porcentaje de internautas hasta el 65,1% en 2010 de los cuales han adquirido productos o servicios a través de la Red un 43,1% –1,6 puntos porcentuales más respecto a 2010–. Por otra parte, el gasto medio por comprador ha ascendido a 831€ en 2010, lo que supone un incremento del 10,9% respecto al año anterior. Si segmentamos a los compradores según por su experiencia anterior de compra podemos encontrar dos categorías: el comprador novel –que adquirió por primera vez productos o servicios en 2010– y el comprador constante –aquel que había adquirido productos o servicios en 2010 y al menos una vez en años anteriores–. El 85,8% de los compradores se pueden considerar como compradores constantes: habían comprado en la Red en 2010, pero también lo habían hecho anteriormente. El comprador novel tiene un perfil sociodemográfico de persona joven de entre 15–24 años, con estudios secundarios, de clase social media y media–baja, estudiante no universitario, residente en poblaciones pequeñas y sigue utilizando fórmulas de pago como el contra–reembolso (23,9%). Su gasto medio anual ascendió en 2010 a 449€. El comprador constante, o comprador que ya había comprado en Internet anteriormente, tiene un perfil demográfico distinto: estudios superiores, clase alta, trabajador y residente en grandes ciudades, con un comportamiento maduro en la compra electrónica dada su mayor experiencia –utiliza con mayor intensidad canales exclusivos en Internet que no disponen de tienda presencial–. Su gasto medio duplica al observado en compradores noveles (con una media de 930€ anuales). Por tanto, los compradores constantes suponen una mayoría de los compradores con un gasto medio que dobla al comprador que ha adoptado el medio recientemente. Por consiguiente es de interés estudiar los factores que predicen que un internauta vuelva a adquirir un producto o servicio en la Red. La respuesta a esta pregunta no se ha revelado sencilla. En España, la mayoría de productos y servicios aún se adquieren de manera presencial, con una baja incidencia de las ventas a distancia como la teletienda, la venta por catálogo o la venta a través de Internet. Para dar respuesta a las preguntas planteadas se ha investigado desde distintos puntos de vista: se comenzará con un estudio descriptivo desde el punto de vista de la demanda que trata de caracterizar la situación del comercio electrónico B2C en España, poniendo el foco en las diferencias entre los compradores constantes y los nuevos compradores. Posteriormente, la investigación de modelos de adopción y continuidad en el uso de las tecnologías y de los factores que inciden en dicha continuidad –con especial interés en el comercio electrónico B2C–, permiten afrontar el problema desde la perspectiva de las ecuaciones estructurales pudiendo también extraer conclusiones de tipo práctico. Este trabajo sigue una estructura clásica de investigación científica: en el capítulo 1 se introduce el tema de investigación, continuando con una descripción del estado de situación del comercio electrónico B2C en España utilizando fuentes oficiales (capítulo 2). Posteriormente se desarrolla el marco teórico y el estado del arte de modelos de adopción y de utilización de las tecnologías (capítulo 3) y de los factores principales que inciden en la adopción y continuidad en el uso de las tecnologías (capítulo 4). El capítulo 5 desarrolla las hipótesis de la investigación y plantea los modelos teóricos. Las técnicas estadísticas a utilizar se describen en el capítulo 6, donde también se analizan los resultados empíricos sobre los modelos desarrollados en el capítulo 5. El capítulo 7 expone las principales conclusiones de la investigación, sus limitaciones y propone nuevas líneas de investigación. La primera parte corresponde al capítulo 1, que introduce la investigación justificándola desde un punto de vista teórico y práctico. También se realiza una breve introducción a la teoría del comportamiento del consumidor desde una perspectiva clásica. Se presentan los principales modelos de adopción y se introducen los modelos de continuidad de utilización que se estudiarán más detalladamente en el capítulo 3. En este capítulo se desarrollan los objetivos principales y los objetivos secundarios, se propone el mapa mental de la investigación y se planifican en un cronograma los principales hitos del trabajo. La segunda parte corresponde a los capítulos dos, tres y cuatro. En el capítulo 2 se describe el comercio electrónico B2C en España utilizando fuentes secundarias. Se aborda un diagnóstico del sector de comercio electrónico y su estado de madurez en España. Posteriormente, se analizan las diferencias entre los compradores constantes, principal interés de este trabajo, frente a los compradores noveles, destacando las diferencias de perfiles y usos. Para los dos segmentos se estudian aspectos como el lugar de acceso a la compra, la frecuencia de compra, los medios de pago utilizados o las actitudes hacia la compra. El capítulo 3 comienza desarrollando los principales conceptos sobre la teoría del comportamiento del consumidor, para continuar estudiando los principales modelos de adopción de tecnología existentes, analizando con especial atención su aplicación en comercio electrónico. Posteriormente se analizan los modelos de continuidad en el uso de tecnologías (Teoría de la Confirmación de Expectativas; Teoría de la Justicia), con especial atención de nuevo a su aplicación en el comercio electrónico. Una vez estudiados los principales modelos de adopción y continuidad en el uso de tecnologías, el capítulo 4 analiza los principales factores que se utilizan en los modelos: calidad, valor, factores basados en la confirmación de expectativas –satisfacción, utilidad percibida– y factores específicos en situaciones especiales –por ejemplo, tras una queja– como pueden ser la justicia, las emociones o la confianza. La tercera parte –que corresponde al capítulo 5– desarrolla el diseño de la investigación y la selección muestral de los modelos. En la primera parte del capítulo se enuncian las hipótesis –que van desde lo general a lo particular, utilizando los factores específicos analizados en el capítulo 4– para su posterior estudio y validación en el capítulo 6 utilizando las técnicas estadísticas apropiadas. A partir de las hipótesis, y de los modelos y factores estudiados en los capítulos 3 y 4, se definen y vertebran dos modelos teóricos originales que den respuesta a los retos de investigación planteados en el capítulo 1. En la segunda parte del capítulo se diseña el trabajo empírico de investigación definiendo los siguientes aspectos: alcance geográfico–temporal, tipología de la investigación, carácter y ambiente de la investigación, fuentes primarias y secundarias utilizadas, técnicas de recolección de datos, instrumentos de medida utilizados y características de la muestra utilizada. Los resultados del trabajo de investigación constituyen la cuarta parte de la investigación y se desarrollan en el capítulo 6, que comienza analizando las técnicas estadísticas basadas en Modelos de Ecuaciones Estructurales. Se plantean dos alternativas, modelos confirmatorios correspondientes a Métodos Basados en Covarianzas (MBC) y modelos predictivos. De forma razonada se eligen las técnicas predictivas dada la naturaleza exploratoria de la investigación planteada. La segunda parte del capítulo 6 desarrolla el análisis de los resultados de los modelos de medida y modelos estructurales construidos con indicadores formativos y reflectivos y definidos en el capítulo 4. Para ello se validan, sucesivamente, los modelos de medida y los modelos estructurales teniendo en cuenta los valores umbrales de los parámetros estadísticos necesarios para la validación. La quinta parte corresponde al capítulo 7, que desarrolla las conclusiones basándose en los resultados del capítulo 6, analizando los resultados desde el punto de vista de las aportaciones teóricas y prácticas, obteniendo conclusiones para la gestión de las empresas. A continuación, se describen las limitaciones de la investigación y se proponen nuevas líneas de estudio sobre distintos temas que han ido surgiendo a lo largo del trabajo. Finalmente, la bibliografía recoge todas las referencias utilizadas a lo largo de este trabajo. Palabras clave: comprador constante, modelos de continuidad de uso, continuidad en el uso de tecnologías, comercio electrónico, B2C, adopción de tecnologías, modelos de adopción tecnológica, TAM, TPB, IDT, UTAUT, ECT, intención de continuidad, satisfacción, confianza percibida, justicia, emociones, confirmación de expectativas, calidad, valor, PLS. ABSTRACT Information and Communication Technologies in general, but more specifically those related to the Internet in particular, have changed the way in which we communicate, relate to one another, produce, and buy and sell products, reducing the time and shortening the distance between suppliers and consumers. The steady breakthrough of computers, Smartphones and landline and/or wireless broadband has been greatly reflected in its large scale use by both individuals and businesses. Business–to–consumer (B2C) e–commerce reached a volume of 9,114 million Euros in Spain in 2010, representing a 17.4% increase with respect to the figure in 2009. This growth is due in part to two different facts: an increase in the percentage of web users to 65.1% en 2010, 43.1% of whom have acquired products or services through the Internet– which constitutes 1.6 percentage points higher than 2010. On the other hand, the average spending by individual buyers rose to 831€ en 2010, constituting a 10.9% increase with respect to the previous year. If we select buyers according to whether or not they have previously made some type of purchase, we can divide them into two categories: the novice buyer–who first made online purchases in 2010– and the experienced buyer: who also made purchases in 2010, but had done so previously as well. The socio–demographic profile of the novice buyer is that of a young person between 15–24 years of age, with secondary studies, middle to lower–middle class, and a non–university educated student who resides in smaller towns and continues to use payment methods such as cash on delivery (23.9%). In 2010, their average purchase grew to 449€. The more experienced buyer, or someone who has previously made purchases online, has a different demographic profile: highly educated, upper class, resident and worker in larger cities, who exercises a mature behavior when making online purchases due to their experience– this type of buyer frequently uses exclusive channels on the Internet that don’t have an actual store. His or her average purchase doubles that of the novice buyer (with an average purchase of 930€ annually.) That said, the experienced buyers constitute the majority of buyers with an average purchase that doubles that of novice buyers. It is therefore of interest to study the factors that help to predict whether or not a web user will buy another product or use another service on the Internet. The answer to this question has proven not to be so simple. In Spain, the majority of goods and services are still bought in person, with a low amount of purchases being made through means such as the Home Shopping Network, through catalogues or Internet sales. To answer the questions that have been posed here, an investigation has been conducted which takes into consideration various viewpoints: it will begin with a descriptive study from the perspective of the supply and demand that characterizes the B2C e–commerce situation in Spain, focusing on the differences between experienced buyers and novice buyers. Subsequently, there will be an investigation concerning the technology acceptance and continuity of use of models as well as the factors that have an effect on their continuity of use –with a special focus on B2C electronic commerce–, which allows for a theoretic approach to the problem from the perspective of the structural equations being able to reach practical conclusions. This investigation follows the classic structure for a scientific investigation: the subject of the investigation is introduced (Chapter 1), then the state of the B2C e–commerce in Spain is described citing official sources of information (Chapter 2), the theoretical framework and state of the art of technology acceptance and continuity models are developed further (Chapter 3) and the main factors that affect their acceptance and continuity (Chapter 4). Chapter 5 explains the hypothesis behind the investigation and poses the theoretical models that will be confirmed or rejected partially or completely. In Chapter 6, the technical statistics that will be used are described briefly as well as an analysis of the empirical results of the models put forth in Chapter 5. Chapter 7 explains the main conclusions of the investigation, its limitations and proposes new projects. First part of the project, chapter 1, introduces the investigation, justifying it from a theoretical and practical point of view. It is also a brief introduction to the theory of consumer behavior from a standard perspective. Technology acceptance models are presented and then continuity and repurchase models are introduced, which are studied more in depth in Chapter 3. In this chapter, both the main and the secondary objectives are developed through a mind map and a timetable which highlights the milestones of the project. The second part of the project corresponds to Chapters Two, Three and Four. Chapter 2 describes the B2C e–commerce in Spain from the perspective of its demand, citing secondary official sources. A diagnosis concerning the e–commerce sector and the status of its maturity in Spain is taken on, as well as the barriers and alternative methods of e–commerce. Subsequently, the differences between experienced buyers, which are of particular interest to this project, and novice buyers are analyzed, highlighting the differences between their profiles and their main transactions. In order to study both groups, aspects such as the place of purchase, frequency with which online purchases are made, payment methods used and the attitudes of the purchasers concerning making online purchases are taken into consideration. Chapter 3 begins by developing the main concepts concerning consumer behavior theory in order to continue the study of the main existing acceptance models (among others, TPB, TAM, IDT, UTAUT and other models derived from them) – paying special attention to their application in e–commerce–. Subsequently, the models of technology reuse are analyzed (CDT, ECT; Theory of Justice), focusing again specifically on their application in e–commerce. Once the main technology acceptance and reuse models have been studied, Chapter 4 analyzes the main factors that are used in these models: quality, value, factors based on the contradiction of expectations/failure to meet expectations– satisfaction, perceived usefulness– and specific factors pertaining to special situations– for example, after receiving a complaint justice, emotions or confidence. The third part– which appears in Chapter 5– develops the plan for the investigation and the sample selection for the models that have been designed. In the first section of the Chapter, the hypothesis is presented– beginning with general ideas and then becoming more specific, using the detailed factors that were analyzed in Chapter 4– for its later study and validation in Chapter 6– as well as the corresponding statistical factors. Based on the hypothesis and the models and factors that were studied in Chapters 3 and 4, two original theoretical models are defined and organized in order to answer the questions posed in Chapter 1. In the second part of the Chapter, the empirical investigation is designed, defining the following aspects: geographic–temporal scope, type of investigation, nature and setting of the investigation, primary and secondary sources used, data gathering methods, instruments according to the extent of their use and characteristics of the sample used. The results of the project constitute the fourth part of the investigation and are developed in Chapter 6, which begins analyzing the statistical techniques that are based on the Models of Structural Equations. Two alternatives are put forth: confirmatory models which correspond to Methods Based on Covariance (MBC) and predictive models– Methods Based on Components–. In a well–reasoned manner, the predictive techniques are chosen given the explorative nature of the investigation. The second part of Chapter 6 explains the results of the analysis of the measurement models and structural models built by the formative and reflective indicators defined in Chapter 4. In order to do so, the measurement models and the structural models are validated one by one, while keeping in mind the threshold values of the necessary statistic parameters for their validation. The fifth part corresponds to Chapter 7 which explains the conclusions of the study, basing them on the results found in Chapter 6 and analyzing them from the perspective of the theoretical and practical contributions, and consequently obtaining conclusions for business management. The limitations of the investigation are then described and new research lines about various topics that came up during the project are proposed. Lastly, all of the references that were used during the project are listed in a final bibliography. Key Words: constant buyer, repurchase models, continuity of use of technology, e–commerce, B2C, technology acceptance, technology acceptance models, TAM, TPB, IDT, UTAUT, ECT, intention of repurchase, satisfaction, perceived trust/confidence, justice, feelings, the contradiction of expectations, quality, value, PLS.

Rebalancing urban mobility: a tale of four cities

The key of mobility in urban planning is not in dispute. Integrated strategies that take into account the interrelations among land use, transport supply and demand and the different transportation modes are more necessary than ever. In Europe, regulatory tools such as local mobility plans or traffic plans have been enforced for a long time, evolving into so-called sustainable urban transport plans (SUTP) ? that is, plans thatmerge urban planning,mobility governance, social awareness and environmental safeguards to develop a vision based on sustainability and equity. Indeed, SUTP are aimed at solving typical problems in current land use, such as urban sprawl, which make clear the need for a paradigm shift from transport (or mobility) planning to land use (or city) planning, thereby producing urban mobility plans that are fully aligned with integrated urban development plans. This paper describes how SUTP are articulated across Europe according to four case studies: Peterborough (UK), Chambe¿ry (France), Ferrara (Italy) and Pinto (Spain), to highlight variations and commonalities, both among the four national legal frameworks and the actual planning processes at the local level. Objectives, measures and indicators used in the monitoring and evaluation phases have been analysed and the results assessed. The main conclusion of the paper is that, as seen in these real-life examples, the lack of integration between spatial planning and transport strategies results in the unsustainability of urban areas and, therefore, in a significant loss of competitiveness.

Diseño y aplicación de una metodología prospectiva para la determinación de los condicionantes futuros del crecimiento de los grandes buques portacontenedores

Durante las últimas décadas se observa una tendencia sostenida al crecimiento en las dimensiones de los grandes buques portacontenedores, que produce, que las infraestructuras portuarias y otras destinadas al tráfico de contenedores deban adaptarse para poder brindar los servicios correspondientes y mantenerse competitivas con otras para no perder el mercado. Esta situación implica importantes inversiones y modificaciones en los sistemas de transporte de contenedores por el gran volumen de carga que se debe mover en un corto periodo de tiempo, lo que genera la necesidad de tomar previsiones relacionadas con la probable evolución a futuro de las dimensiones que alcanzarán los grandes buques portacontenedores. En relación a los aspectos citados surge la inquietud de determinar los condicionantes futuros del crecimiento de los grandes buques portacontenedores, con una visión totalizadora de todos los factores que incidirán en los próximos años, ya sea como un freno o un impulso a la tendencia que se verifica en el pasado y en el presente. En consideración a que el tema a tratar y resolver se encuentra en el futuro, con un horizonte de predicción de veinte años, se diseña y se aplica una metodología prospectiva, que permite alcanzar conclusiones con mayor grado de objetividad sobre probables escenarios futuros. La metodología prospectiva diseñada, conjuga distintas herramientas metodológicas, cualitativas, semi-cuantitativas y cuantitativas que se validan entre sí. Sobre la base del pasado y el presente, las herramientas cuantitativas permiten encontrar relaciones entre variables y hacer proyecciones, sin embargo, estas metodologías pierden validez más allá de los tres a cuatro años, por los vertiginosos y dinámicos cambios que se producen actualmente, en las áreas política, social y económica. Las metodologías semi-cuantitativas y cualitativas, empleadas en forma conjunta e integradas, permiten el análisis de circunstancias del pasado y del presente, obteniendo resultados cuantitativos que se pueden proyectar hacia un futuro cercano, los que integrados en estudios cualitativos proporcionan resultados a largo plazo, facilitando considerar variables cualitativas como la creciente preocupación por la preservación del medio ambiente y la piratería. La presente tesis, tiene como objetivo principal “identificar los condicionantes futuros del crecimiento de los grandes buques portacontenedores y determinar sus escenarios”. Para lo cual, la misma se estructura en fases consecutivas y que se retroalimentan continuamente. Las tres primeras fases son un enfoque sobre el pasado y el presente, que establece el problema a resolver. Se estudian los antecedentes y el estado del conocimiento en relación a los factores y circunstancias que motivaron y facilitaron la tendencia al crecimiento de los grandes buques. También se estudia el estado del conocimiento de las metodologías para predecir el futuro y se diseña de una metodología prospectiva. La cuarta fase, denominada Resultados, se desarrolla en distintas etapas, fundamentadas en las fases anteriores, con el fin de resolver el problema dando respuestas a las preguntas que se formularon para alcanzar el objetivo fijado. En el proceso de esta fase, con el objeto de predecir probables futuros, se aplica la metodología prospectiva diseñada, que contempla el análisis del pasado y el presente, que determina los factores cuya influencia provocó el crecimiento en dimensiones de los grandes buques hasta la actualidad, y que constituye la base para emplear los métodos prospectivos que permiten determinar qué factores condicionarán en el futuro la evolución de los grandes buques. El probable escenario futuro formado por los factores determinados por el criterio experto, es validado mediante un modelo cuantitativo dinámico, que además de obtener el probable escenario futuro basado en las tendencias de comportamiento hasta el presente de los factores determinantes considerados, permite estudiar distintos probables escenarios futuros en función de considerar un cambio en la tendencia futura de los factores determinantes. El análisis del pasado indica que la tendencia al crecimiento de los grandes buques portacontenedores hasta el presente, se ha motivado por un crecimiento económico mundial que se tradujo en un aumento del comercio internacional, particularmente entre los países de Asia, con Europa y Estados Unidos. Esta tendencia se ha visto favorecida por el factor globalización y la acelerada evolución tecnológica que ha permitido superar los obstáculos que se presentaron. Es de destacar que aún en periodos de crisis económicas, con pronósticos de contracciones en el comercio, en los últimos años continuó la tendencia al crecimiento en dimensiones, en busca de una economía de escala para el transporte marítimo de contenedores, en las rutas transoceánicas. La investigación de la evolución de los grandes buques portacontenedores en el futuro, se efectúa mediante el empleo de una metodología prospectiva en la que el criterio experto se valida con un método cuantitativo dinámico, y además se fundamenta en una solida base pre-prospectiva. La metodología diseñada permite evaluar con un alto grado de objetividad cuales serán los condicionantes que incidirán en el crecimiento en tamaño de los grandes buques portacontenedores en el escenario con mayor probabilidad de acontecer en los próximos veinte años (2032), y también en otros escenarios que podrían presentarse en el caso de que los factores modifiquen su tendencia o bien se produzcan hechos aleatorios. El resultado se sintetiza en que la tendencia al crecimiento de los grandes buques portacontenedores en los próximos 20 años se verá condicionada por factores en relación a los conceptos de oferta (los que facilitan u obstaculizan la tendencia), demanda (los que motivan o impulsan la tendencia) y factores externos (los que desestabilizan el equilibrio entre oferta y demanda). La tendencia al crecimiento de los grandes buques portacontenedores se verá obstaculizada / limitada principalmente por factores relacionados a las infraestructuras, resultando los pasos y/o canales vinculados a las rutas marítimas, los limitantes futuros al crecimiento en dimensiones de los grandes buques portacontenedores; y la interacción buque / infraestructura (grúas) un factor que tenderá a obstaculizar esta tendencia de los grandes portacontenedores. El desarrollo económico mundial que estimula el comercio internacional y los factores precio del petróleo y condicionantes medioambientales impulsarán la tendencia al crecimiento de los grandes buques portacontenedores. Recent years have seen a sustained tendency towards the growth in the dimensions of large container ships. This has meant that port and other infrastructure used for container traffic has had to be adapted in order to provide the required services and to maintain a competitive position, so as not to lose market share. This situation implies the need for major investments in modifications to the container transport system, on account of the large volume of traffic to be handled in a short period of time. This in turn has generated a need to make provision for the probable future evolution of the ultimate dimensions that will be reached by large container ships. Such considerations give rise to the question of what are the future determinants for the growth of large container ships, requiring an overall vision of all the factors that will apply in future years, whether as a brake on or an incentive to the growth tendency which has been seen in the past and present In view of the fact that the theme to be dealt with and resolved relates to the future, with a forecasting horizon of some 20 years, a foresight methodology has been designed and applied so as to enable conclusions about probable future scenarios to be reached with a greater degree of objectivity. The designed methodology contains different methodological tools, both qualitative, semi-quantitative and quantitative, which are internally consistent. On the basis of past and present observations, the quantitative elements enable relationships to be established and forecasts to be made. Nevertheless such an approach loses validity more than three or four years into the future, on account of the very rapid and dynamic changes which may be seen at present in political, social and economic spheres. The semi-quantitative and qualitative methodologies are used coherently together and allow the analysis of past and present conditions, thus obtaining quantitative results which for short-term projections, which when integrated with the qualitative studies provide results for the long-term, facilitating the consideration of qualitative variables such as the increasing importance of environmental protection and the impact of piracy. The principal objective of the present thesis is "to identify the future conditions affecting the growth of large container ships and to determine possible scenarios". The thesis is structured in consecutive and related phases. The first three phases focus on the past and present in order to determine the problem to be resolved. The background is studied in order to establish the state of knowledge about the factors and circumstances which have motivated and facilitated the growth tendency for large container ships and the methodologies that have been used. In this way a specific foresight methodology is designed. The fourth phase, Results, is developed in distinct stages based on the previous phases, so as to resolve the problem posed and responding to the questions that arise. In this way the determined objective is reached. The fourth phase sees the application of the methodology that has been designed in order to predict posible futures. This includes analysis of the past and present factors which have caused the growth in the dimensions of large container ships up to the present. These provide the basis on which to apply the foresight methods which enable the future factors which will condition the development of such large container ships. The probable future scenarios are made up of the factors identified by expert judgement (using the Delphi technique) and validated by means of a dynamic quantitative model. This model both identifies the probable future scenarios based on past and present factors and enables the different future scenarios to be analysed as a function of future changes in the conditioning factors. Analysis of the past shows that the growth tendency up to the present for large container ships has been motivated by the growth of the world economy and the consequent increased international trade, especially between the countries of Asia with Europe and the United States. This tendency has been favoured by the trend towards globalization and by the rapid technical evolution in ship design, which has allowed the obstacles encountered to be overcome. It should be noted that even in periods of economic crisis, with an expectation for reduced trade, as experienced in recent years, the tendency towards increased ship dimensions has continued in search of economies of scale for the maritime transport of containers on transoceanic routes. The present investigation of the future evolution of large container ships has been done using a foresight methodology in which the expert judgement is validated by a dynamic quantitative methodology, founded on a firm pre-foresight analysis. The methodology that has been designed permits the evaluation, with a high degree of objectivity, of the future factors that will affect the growth of large container ships for the most probable scenario expected in the next 20 years (up to 2032). The evaluation applies also to other scenarios which may arise, in the event that their component factors are modified or indeed in the light of random events. In summary, the conclusión is that the tendency for growth in large container ships in the future 20 years will be determined by: factors related to supply, which slow or halt the tendency; factors related to demand, which encourage the tendency and finally, external factors which interrupt the equilibrium between supply and demand. The tendency for increasing growth in large container ships will be limited or even halted by factors related to infrastructure, including the natural and man-made straits and canals used by maritime transport. In addition the infrastructure required to serve such vessels both in port (including cranes and other equipment) and related transport, will tend to slow the growth tendency. The factors which will continue to encourage the tendency towards the growth of large container ships include world economic development, which stimulates international trade, and an increasing emphasis on environmental aspects.

What role does climate change play in agricultural market uncertainty? An integrated assessment taking into account market-driven adjustments

Recent studies point to climate change being one of the long-term drivers of agricultural market uncertainty. To advance in the understanding of the influence of climate change on future agricultural market developments, we compare a reference scenario for 2030 with alternative simulation scenarios that differ regarding: (1) emission scenarios; (2) climate projections; and (3) the consideration of carbon fertilization effects. For each simulation scenario, the CAPRI model provides global and EU-wide impacts of climate change on agricultural markets. Results show that climate change would considerably affect agrifood markets up to 2030. Nevertheless, market-driven adaptation strategies (production intensification, trade adjustments) would soften the impact of yield shocks on supply and demand. As a result, regional changes in production would be lower than foreseen by other studies focused on supply effects.

Irrigation efficiency and water-policy implications for river-basin resilience

Rising demand for food, fiber, and biofuels drives expanding irrigation withdrawals from surface water and groundwater. Irrigation efficiency and water savings have become watchwords in response to climate-induced hydrological variability, increasing freshwater demand for other uses including ecosystem water needs, and low economic productivity of irrigation compared to most other uses. We identify three classes of unintended consequences, presented here as paradoxes. Ever-tighter cycling of water has been shown to increase resource use, an example of the efficiency paradox. In the absence of effective policy to constrain irrigated-area expansion using "saved water", efficiency can aggravate scarcity, deteriorate resource quality, and impair river basin resilience through loss of flexibility and redundancy. Water scarcity and salinity effects in the lower reaches of basins (symptomatic of the scale paradox) may partly be offset over the short-term through groundwater pumping or increasing surface water storage capacity. However, declining ecological flows and increasing salinity have important implications for riparian and estuarine ecosystems and for non-irrigation human uses of water including urban supply and energy generation, examples of the sectoral paradox. This paper briefly considers three regional contexts with broadly similar climatic and water-resource conditions – central Chile, southwestern US, and south-central Spain – where irrigation efficiency directly influences basin resilience. The comparison leads to more generic insights on water policy in relation to irrigation efficiency and emerging or overdue needs for environmental protection.

Application of Ultraintense Lasers to validate materials for laser fusion: production of ions and other relevant species

Justification of the need and demand of experimental facilities to test and validate materials for first wall in laser fusion reactors - Characteristics of the laser fusion products - Current ?possible? facilities for tests Ultraintense Lasers as ?complete? solution facility - Generation of ion pulses - Generation of X-ray pulses - Generation of other relevant particles (electrons, neutrons..)

Estudio técnico y económico para la sustitución del gasóleo por biomasa térmica en edificios urbanos

La finalidad del proyecto consiste en realizar la sustitución de calderas de gasóleo por calderas de biomasa para suministrar calefacción a edificios urbanos. En primer lugar, se ha hecho un estudio de la demanda calorífica de los edificios, y posteriormente se ha estudiado el ciclo completo de la biomasa, incluyendo el suministro y tipo de biomasa, dimensiones de los equipos y espacios necesarios para la instalación. Después de estudiar la viabilidad técnica y económica, podemos concluir que utilizar biomasa en edificios con calderas centralizadas nos aporta un gran ahorro en comparación con el gasóleo, además de evitar emisiones de CO2 y utilizar un combustible renovable y de producción nacional. ABSTRACT The purpose of the project consists of performing the substitution of diesel boilers by biomass boilers to provide the heating to urban buildings. In first place, it has been made a study of the calorific demand of the buildings. In addition, it has been studied the completed cycle of the biomass even including the supply and the type of biomass, the dimensions of the machines and the necessary spaces to carry out the installation. After studying the technical and economical viability, we can conclude that using biomass in buildings with central boilers provides us an important saving in comparison with diesel as well as to avoid CO2 emissions and using a renewable combustible of national production.

Intereses exógenos y resistencia ciudadana en la transformación físicosocial de un asentamiento auto-producido de Dakar (2005-2011)

La presión sobre el acceso a la tierra en la península de Dakar, Senegal, ha generado un proceso de transformación físico-social del mayor asentamiento auto-producido de la periferia urbana de Dakar (Pikine Irregular Sur) en el periodo 2005-2011. Esta investigación se propone analizar en qué medida las acciones llevadas a cabo: i) satisfacen o no el sistema integral de necesidades de los afectados (Demanda); ii) favorecen la implicación de los afectados o, por el contrario, fortalecen las estructuras de poder dominantes (Oferta), y iii) promueven o no la autonomía económica, la sostenibilidad ambiental, la equidad social y la legitimidad de los actores que participan (Entorno). La investigación se ha llevado a cabo por el método de estudio de casos, mediante un proceso de recogida de información participativo, articulado de abajo hacia arriba, en el que han participado 196 personas; la información recogida se ha procesado mediante la utilización de dos herramientas de análisis de realidades complejas: flujo de programa y sistema funcional. Los resultados del estudio de los casos 1 y 2 muestran que las acciones se han llevado a cabo en beneficio de los intereses de los mercados y de los actores que toman las decisiones y gestionan los recursos, incrementando la dependencia económica, empobreciendo a los directamente afectados y fragmentando su tejido social, promoviendo un desarrollo urbano desequilibrado, disperso y segregado, y deslegitimando a las instituciones involucradas. En el estudio del caso 3, en cambio, se verifica que la acción se ha llevado a cabo en beneficio de los intereses de los directamente afectados, utilizando recursos endógenos, fortaleciendo su tejido social, promoviendo un desarrollo urbano concentrado e inclusivo, e incrementando la legitimidad de las instituciones involucradas. El análisis cruzado de los resultados muestra que la pobreza, la exclusión social y la precariedad habitacional, en el contexto específico de la periferia de Dakar, no son un problema de falta de recursos, sino de falta de ética por parte de quienes gestionan y financian los procesos de transformación físico-social, y de falta de voluntad por parte de las autoridades de implicar a los ciudadanos, y en particular a los directamente afectados, en los procesos de toma de decisiones de las acciones y los programas que les afectan. Finalmente se concluye que no se trata de luchar contra la pobreza, sino de luchar contra los sistemas injustos que generan la pobreza y la exclusión. ABSTRACT The pressure on the access to land in the area of Dakar, Senegal, has generated a physical/social transformation process in the largest self-produced settlement in the urban periphery of Dakar (South Irregular Pikine), in the period 2005-2011. This research aims to analyze to what extent the actions carried out: i) satisfy the integral needs of the affected population (Demand), ii) encourage the involvement of those affected or otherwise strengthen dominant power structures (Supply), and iii) promote or inhibit economic autonomy, environmental sustainability, social equity and legitimacy of the actors involved (Environment). The research was conducted by the case study method. 196 people participated in a bottom-up participatory process of information gathering. The information collected was processed using two custom tools aimed to analyse complex systems: the program flow and the functional system. The results of case studies 1 and 2 show that the actions were carried out in the best interest of the markets and the actors who made decisions and managed resources, increasing economic dependence, impoverishing those directly affected and fragmenting their social network by promoting an unbalanced, dispersed and segregated urban development, and de-legitimizing the institutions involved in the process. On the contrary, in the case study 3 it is verified that the action has been carried out on behalf of the interests of those directly affected, using endogenous resources, strengthening the social network, promoting a focused and inclusive urban development, and increasing legitimacy of the institutions involved. The comparative analysis of the results shows that poverty, social exclusion and precarious housing in South Irregular Pikine are not a problem of lack of resources but of unethical behaviour of those who manage and finance physical and social transformation processes, as well as unwillingness on the part of the authorities to involve citizens in the decision making processes for the actions and programs that affect them. Finally we conclude that the enemy to fight against is not poverty but unfair systems that generate poverty and exclusion. RÉSUMÉ La pression sur le foncier dans la presqu'île de Dakar, au Sénégal, a généré un processus de transformation physico-sociale du plus grand établissement auto-produit de la périphérie urbaine de Dakar (Pikine Irrégulier Sud), durant la période 2005-2011. Cette recherche vise à analyser dans quelle mesure les actions menées: i) répondent ou non à l’ensemble des besoins intégrales des personnes concernés (Demande), ii) encouragent l'implication des concernées ou au contraire renforcent les structures de pouvoir dominant (Offre), et iii) favorisent ou non l'autonomie économique, la durabilité environnementale, l'équité sociale et la légitimité des acteurs concernés (Contexte). La recherche a été menée par la méthode des études de cas, par un processus de collecte d'information participative articulée du bas vers le haut dans lequel ont participé 196 personnes. Les informations recueillies ont été traitées à l'aide de deux outils d'analyse de réalités complexes: le système fonctionnel et le flux de programme. Les résultats de l'étude de cas 1 et 2 montrent que les actions ont été menées au profit des intérêts des marchés et des acteurs qui prennent les décisions et gèrent les ressources, augmentant la dépendance économique, appauvrissant ceux qui sont directement concernés et fragmentant leur tissu social, encourageant un développement urbain déséquilibré, dispersé et ségrégé, et délégitimant les institutions concernées. Dans l'étude de cas 3, cependant, il est vérifié que l'action a été menée au profit des intérêts de ceux qui sont directement concernés, en utilisant des ressources endogènes, en renforçant son tissu social, en encourageant un développement urbain concentré et inclusif, et en augmentant la légitimité des institutions concernées. L'analyse comparée des résultats montre que la pauvreté, l'exclusion sociale et le logement précaire, dans le contexte spécifique de la banlieue de Dakar, ne sont pas un problème de manque de ressources, mais de manque d'éthique de la part de ceux qui gèrent et financent les processus de transformation physico-sociale, et de manque de volonté de la part des autorités d'impliquer les citoyens, en particulier ceux qui sont directement concernés, dans le processus de prise de décision des actions et des programmes qui les impliquent. Finalement, on conclut qu'il ne s'agit pas de lutter contre la pauvreté, mais de lutter contre les systèmes injustes qui produisent la pauvreté et l'exclusion.

Energy- and environmentally efficient road management: The case of the Spanish motorway network

Transport is responsible for 41% of CO2 emissions in Spain, and around 65% of that figure is due to road traffic. Tolled motorways are currently managed according to economic criteria: minimizing operational costs and maximizing revenues from tolls. Within this framework, this paper develops a new methodology for managing motorways based on a target of maximum energy efficiency. It includes technological and demand-driven policies, which are applied to two case studies. Various conclusions emerge from this study. One is, that the use of intelligent payment systems is recommended; and another, is that the most sustainable policy would involve defining the most efficient strategy for each motorway section, including the maximum use of its capacity, the toll level which attracts the most vehicles, and the optimum speed limit for each type of vehicle.

Localization and Tracking in Energy-Constrained Networks with Dynamic Connectivity

Systems used for target localization, such as goods, individuals, or animals, commonly rely on operational means to meet the final application demands. However, what would happen if some means were powered up randomly by harvesting systems? And what if those devices not randomly powered had their duty cycles restricted? Under what conditions would such an operation be tolerable in localization services? What if the references provided by nodes in a tracking problem were distorted? Moreover, there is an underlying topic common to the previous questions regarding the transfer of conceptual models to reality in field tests: what challenges are faced upon deploying a localization network that integrates energy harvesting modules? The application scenario of the system studied is a traditional herding environment of semi domesticated reindeer (Rangifer tarandus tarandus) in northern Scandinavia. In these conditions, information on approximate locations of reindeer is as important as environmental preservation. Herders also need cost-effective devices capable of operating unattended in, sometimes, extreme weather conditions. The analyses developed are worthy not only for the specific application environment presented, but also because they may serve as an approach to performance of navigation systems in absence of reasonably accurate references like the ones of the Global Positioning System (GPS). A number of energy-harvesting solutions, like thermal and radio-frequency harvesting, do not commonly provide power beyond one milliwatt. When they do, battery buffers may be needed (as it happens with solar energy) which may raise costs and make systems more dependent on environmental temperatures. In general, given our problem, a harvesting system is needed that be capable of providing energy bursts of, at least, some milliwatts. Many works on localization problems assume that devices have certain capabilities to determine unknown locations based on range-based techniques or fingerprinting which cannot be assumed in the approach considered herein. The system presented is akin to range-free techniques, but goes to the extent of considering very low node densities: most range-free techniques are, therefore, not applicable. Animal localization, in particular, uses to be supported by accurate devices such as GPS collars which deplete batteries in, maximum, a few days. Such short-life solutions are not particularly desirable in the framework considered. In tracking, the challenge may times addressed aims at attaining high precision levels from complex reliable hardware and thorough processing techniques. One of the challenges in this Thesis is the use of equipment with just part of its facilities in permanent operation, which may yield high input noise levels in the form of distorted reference points. The solution presented integrates a kinetic harvesting module in some nodes which are expected to be a majority in the network. These modules are capable of providing power bursts of some milliwatts which suffice to meet node energy demands. The usage of harvesting modules in the aforementioned conditions makes the system less dependent on environmental temperatures as no batteries are used in nodes with harvesters--it may be also an advantage in economic terms. There is a second kind of nodes. They are battery powered (without kinetic energy harvesters), and are, therefore, dependent on temperature and battery replacements. In addition, their operation is constrained by duty cycles in order to extend node lifetime and, consequently, their autonomy. There is, in turn, a third type of nodes (hotspots) which can be static or mobile. They are also battery-powered, and are used to retrieve information from the network so that it is presented to users. The system operational chain starts at the kinetic-powered nodes broadcasting their own identifier. If an identifier is received at a battery-powered node, the latter stores it for its records. Later, as the recording node meets a hotspot, its full record of detections is transferred to the hotspot. Every detection registry comprises, at least, a node identifier and the position read from its GPS module by the battery-operated node previously to detection. The characteristics of the system presented make the aforementioned operation own certain particularities which are also studied. First, identifier transmissions are random as they depend on movements at kinetic modules--reindeer movements in our application. Not every movement suffices since it must overcome a certain energy threshold. Second, identifier transmissions may not be heard unless there is a battery-powered node in the surroundings. Third, battery-powered nodes do not poll continuously their GPS module, hence localization errors rise even more. Let's recall at this point that such behavior is tight to the aforementioned power saving policies to extend node lifetime. Last, some time is elapsed between the instant an identifier random transmission is detected and the moment the user is aware of such a detection: it takes some time to find a hotspot. Tracking is posed as a problem of a single kinetically-powered target and a population of battery-operated nodes with higher densities than before in localization. Since the latter provide their approximate positions as reference locations, the study is again focused on assessing the impact of such distorted references on performance. Unlike in localization, distance-estimation capabilities based on signal parameters are assumed in this problem. Three variants of the Kalman filter family are applied in this context: the regular Kalman filter, the alpha-beta filter, and the unscented Kalman filter. The study enclosed hereafter comprises both field tests and simulations. Field tests were used mainly to assess the challenges related to power supply and operation in extreme conditions as well as to model nodes and some aspects of their operation in the application scenario. These models are the basics of the simulations developed later. The overall system performance is analyzed according to three metrics: number of detections per kinetic node, accuracy, and latency. The links between these metrics and the operational conditions are also discussed and characterized statistically. Subsequently, such statistical characterization is used to forecast performance figures given specific operational parameters. In tracking, also studied via simulations, nonlinear relationships are found between accuracy and duty cycles and cluster sizes of battery-operated nodes. The solution presented may be more complex in terms of network structure than existing solutions based on GPS collars. However, its main gain lies on taking advantage of users' error tolerance to reduce costs and become more environmentally friendly by diminishing the potential amount of batteries that can be lost. Whether it is applicable or not depends ultimately on the conditions and requirements imposed by users' needs and operational environments, which is, as it has been explained, one of the topics of this Thesis.

The University in the Cloud Computing.

With the advancement of Information and Communication Technology ICT which favors increasingly fast, easy, and accessible communication for all and which can reach large groups of people, there have been changes, in recent years in our society that have modified the way we interact, communicate and transmit information. Access to this, it is possible, not only through computers situated in a fixed location, but new mobile devices make it available, wherever the user happens to be located. Now, information "travels" with the user. These forms of communication, transmission and access to information, have also affected the way to conceive and manage business. To these new forms of business that the Internet has brought, is now added the concept of companies in the Cloud Computing ClC. The ClC technology is based on the supply and consumption of services on demand and pay per use, and it gives a 180 degree turn to the business management concept. Small and large businesses may use the latest developments in ICT, to manage their organizations without the need for expensive investments in them. This will enable enterprises to focus more specifically within the scope of their business, leaving the ICT control to the experts. We believe that education can also and should benefit from these new philosophies. ?Due to the global economic crisis in general and each country in particular, economic cutbacks have come to most universities. These are seen in the need to raise tuition rates, which makes increasingly fewer students have the opportunity to pursue higher education?. In this paper we propose using ClC technologies in universities and we make a dissertation on the advantages that it can provide to both: universities and students. For the universities, we expose two focuses, one: ?to reorganize university ICT structures with the ClC philosophy? and the other one, ?to extend the offer of the university education with education on demand?. Regarding the former we propose to use public or private Clouds, to reuse resources across the education community, to save costs on infrastructure investment, in upgrades and in maintenance of ICT, and paying only for what you use and with the ability to scale according to needs. Regarding the latter, we propose an educational model in the ClC, to increase the current university offerings, using educational units in the form of low-cost services and where students pay only for the units consumed on demand. For the students, they could study at any university in the world (virtually), from anywhere, without travel costs: money and time, and what is most important paying only for what they consume. We think that this proposal of education on demand may represent a great change in the current educational model, because strict registration deadlines disappear, and also the problem of economically disadvantaged students, who will not have to raise large amounts of money for an annual tuition. Also it will decrease the problem of loss of the money invested in an enrollment when the student dropout. In summary we think that this proposal is interesting for both, universities and students, we aim for "Higher education from anywhere, with access from any mobile device, at any time, without requiring large investments for students, and with reuse and optimization of resources by universities. Cost by consumption and consumption by service?. We argue for a Universal University "wisdom and knowledge accessible to all?

Optimizing PV use through active demand side management

With recent technological developments within the field of power conditioning and the progressive decrease of incentives for PV electricity in grid-connected markets, new operation modes for PV systems should be explored beyond the traditional maximization of PV electri city feed-in. An example can be found in the domestic sector, where the use of modern PV hybrid systems combin ed with efficient electrical appliances and demand side management strategies can significantly enhance the PV value for the user. This paper presents an active demand side management system able to displace the consumer’s load curve in response to local (PV hybrid system, user) and external conditions (external grid). In this way, th e consumer becomes an “active consumer” that can also cooperate with others and the grid, increasing even more the PV value for the electrical system.

Estudio para un Modelo de Gestión de un Acuífero Costero, mediante Metodologías Participativas y Análisis Geoestadístico en el marco del Desarrollo Local. Manglaralto, Ecuador

El presente estudio se fundamenta en la investigación-acción-participativa (IAP), para buscar alternativas que tiendan al desarrollo local de un territorio. Se centra en la cuenca hidrográfica del rio Manglaralto-Santa Elena-Ecuador, aplicando un sistema metodológico participativo que considera las características peculiares del territorio, que se analizan geoespacialmente reconociendo la influencia de la dinámica de sus cambios y observando los móviles que la propiciaban. A través de mecanismos participativos, se conectan los aspectos técnicos para el conocimiento y el aprovechamiento racional del acuífero costero, con los valores de los habitantes del territorio, para mejorar su abastecimiento de agua y crear nuevas condiciones y oportunidades en el camino del desarrollo local, vislumbrando la sostenibilidad. Cabe indicar que el ente administrativo y propulsor es la Junta de Agua Potable Regional Manglaralto (JAPRM). La hipótesis del estudio considera, que los métodos participativos generan en la comunidad una respuesta basada en su identidad y sus deseos de mejorar, que propiciará una gestión del acuífero costero que conlleve al desarrollo local. Otra hipótesis complementaria estipula que las estrategias del gobierno respecto al turismo propicia un crecimiento en la demanda del agua del acuífero. En Manglaralto-Ecuador, una parroquia de 30.000 habitantes aproximadamente, donde la JAPRM, administra y suministra agua a 23.586 habitantes que cuenta en su organización, llevada por 6 representantes de las comunidades rurales que la conforman, empezaron hace 7 años a buscar una forma de lograr un cambio, de tener agua para el desarrollo de la comunidad. Buscaron ayuda por diferentes medios, políticos, económicas, sociales y encontraron como base fundamental a la cooperación con el Organismo Internacional de Energía Atómica (OIEA) y la Escuela Superior Politécnica del Litoral (ESPOL) para entrelazar aspectos técnicos, ambientales, sociales y culturales. La gestión del acuífero costero, desde la perspectiva del IAP repercute en el desarrollo de Manglaralto. También se realiza un análisis geoespacial-geoestadístico, para vislumbrar aspectos de cambios en el territorio ligados al crecimiento turístico, que afectan a la demanda del recurso agua proveniente del acuífero costero bajo la administración de la JAPRM. La tesis presenta el modelo integral y propio de la comunidad de Manglaralto, que refleja una evolución que alcanzó un apogeo en 2011 y parte del 2012, con 9 pozos de agua que daban servicio los 365 días del año, 24 horas al día ininterrumpidamente. Las condiciones externas (promociones turísticas de la ruta del Spondylus) han repercutido en nuevas problemáticas (crecimiento elevado de la demanda del agua). El acuífero costero se convierte en el emblema y móvil de solución, gracias a la gestión integral y a la interacción IAP que se amolda a la evolución de las condiciones, buscando soluciones para la comunidad y su entorno. El modelo integral del territorio con la participación de sus pobladores, considera el aspecto turístico, como un agente que propicia la mayor demanda del agua. Situación a la que hay que dar respuesta mediante la observación-reflexión en el ciclo del IAP para generar nuevas directrices estratégicas y gestionar el desarrollo local. ABSTRACT The present study is based on the participatory action research (PAR) methodology in order to look for alternatives which tend to the local development of a territory. It focuses on the Manglaralto hydrographic river basin located in Santa Elena-Ecuador through the application of the participatory methodology which considers the peculiar characteristics of the territory. These are geospatially analyzed recognizing the influence of its dynamic of changes and observing the causes that originated them. Through the use of participatory mechanisms, technical aspects are connected for stimulating knowledge and rational use of the coastal aquifer with the values of inhabitants of the territory to improve the water supply and create new conditions of sustainability. It is important to point out that the administrative organism and promoter is the Manglaralto Regional Fresh Water Board (JAPRM). In Manglaralto-Ecuador, a parish of approximately 30,000 inhabitants, the MRFWB manages and supplies water to 23.586 inhabitants. This organization is composed by 6 representatives of rural communities. It started 7 years ago looking for a way to achieve a change, from obtaining water to developing the community. They seeked for help in different fields such as: political, economic and social and they found International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and Escuela Superior Politécnica del Litoral (ESPOL) as a fundamental basis for cooperation to bond technical, environmental, social and cultural aspects. Management of coastal aquifer, from the PAR perspective affects the development of Manglaralto. Also, a geospatial and geostatistical analysis is carried out to distinguish change aspects in territories related to touristy growth which affects the demand of water obtained from the coastal aquifer under the management of the MRFWB. The thesis presents a comprehensive model that belongs to the Manglaralto community and reveals an evolution that reached a peak in 2011 and part of 2012, with 9 water wells that operated the 365 days of the year 24 hours a day without interruption. The external conditions (touristic packages of Spondylus route) have created new problems (higher demand of water). The coastal aquifer is a symbol and solution, thanks to the comprehensive management and PAR interaction which fits the evolution of conditions, looking for solutions for the community and its surroundings. The comprehensive model of territory with the participation of inhabitants considers the touristic aspect as an agent which brings about a higher demand of water. This situation requests a response through the observation-reflection in the PAR cycle to generate new strategic guidelines and promote the local development.