Probabilistic Analysis of Tunnel Liners

The use of probabilistic methods to analyse reliability of structures is being applied to a variety of engineering problems due to the possibility of establishing the failure probability on rational grounds. In this paper we present the application of classical reliability theory to analyse the safety of underground tunnels.

El problema del rozamiento en el análisis de estructuras de fábrica mediante modelos de sólidos rígidos

La evaluación de la seguridad de estructuras antiguas de fábrica es un problema abierto.El material es heterogéneo y anisótropo, el estado previo de tensiones difícil de conocer y las condiciones de contorno inciertas. A comienzos de los años 50 se demostró que el análisis límite era aplicable a este tipo de estructuras, considerándose desde entonces como una herramienta adecuada. En los casos en los que no se produce deslizamiento la aplicación de los teoremas del análisis límite estándar constituye una herramienta formidable por su simplicidad y robustez. No es necesario conocer el estado real de tensiones. Basta con encontrar cualquier solución de equilibrio, y que satisfaga las condiciones de límite del material, en la seguridad de que su carga será igual o inferior a la carga real de inicio de colapso. Además esta carga de inicio de colapso es única (teorema de la unicidad) y se puede obtener como el óptimo de uno cualquiera entre un par de programas matemáticos convexos duales. Sin embargo, cuando puedan existir mecanismos de inicio de colapso que impliquen deslizamientos, cualquier solución debe satisfacer tanto las restricciones estáticas como las cinemáticas, así como un tipo especial de restricciones disyuntivas que ligan las anteriores y que pueden plantearse como de complementariedad. En este último caso no está asegurada la existencia de una solución única, por lo que es necesaria la búsqueda de otros métodos para tratar la incertidumbre asociada a su multiplicidad. En los últimos años, la investigación se ha centrado en la búsqueda de un mínimo absoluto por debajo del cual el colapso sea imposible. Este método es fácil de plantear desde el punto de vista matemático, pero intratable computacionalmente, debido a las restricciones de complementariedad 0 y z 0 que no son ni convexas ni suaves. El problema de decisión resultante es de complejidad computacional No determinista Polinomial (NP)- completo y el problema de optimización global NP-difícil. A pesar de ello, obtener una solución (sin garantía de exito) es un problema asequible. La presente tesis propone resolver el problema mediante Programación Lineal Secuencial, aprovechando las especiales características de las restricciones de complementariedad, que escritas en forma bilineal son del tipo y z = 0; y 0; z 0 , y aprovechando que el error de complementariedad (en forma bilineal) es una función de penalización exacta. Pero cuando se trata de encontrar la peor solución, el problema de optimización global equivalente es intratable (NP-difícil). Además, en tanto no se demuestre la existencia de un principio de máximo o mínimo, existe la duda de que el esfuerzo empleado en aproximar este mínimo esté justificado. En el capítulo 5, se propone hallar la distribución de frecuencias del factor de carga, para todas las soluciones de inicio de colapso posibles, sobre un sencillo ejemplo. Para ello, se realiza un muestreo de soluciones mediante el método de Monte Carlo, utilizando como contraste un método exacto de computación de politopos. El objetivo final es plantear hasta que punto está justificada la busqueda del mínimo absoluto y proponer un método alternativo de evaluación de la seguridad basado en probabilidades. Las distribuciones de frecuencias, de los factores de carga correspondientes a las soluciones de inicio de colapso obtenidas para el caso estudiado, muestran que tanto el valor máximo como el mínimo de los factores de carga son muy infrecuentes, y tanto más, cuanto más perfecto y contínuo es el contacto. Los resultados obtenidos confirman el interés de desarrollar nuevos métodos probabilistas. En el capítulo 6, se propone un método de este tipo basado en la obtención de múltiples soluciones, desde puntos de partida aleatorios y calificando los resultados mediante la Estadística de Orden. El propósito es determinar la probabilidad de inicio de colapso para cada solución.El método se aplica (de acuerdo a la reducción de expectativas propuesta por la Optimización Ordinal) para obtener una solución que se encuentre en un porcentaje determinado de las peores. Finalmente, en el capítulo 7, se proponen métodos híbridos, incorporando metaheurísticas, para los casos en que la búsqueda del mínimo global esté justificada. Abstract Safety assessment of the historic masonry structures is an open problem. The material is heterogeneous and anisotropic, the previous state of stress is hard to know and the boundary conditions are uncertain. In the early 50's it was proven that limit analysis was applicable to this kind of structures, being considered a suitable tool since then. In cases where no slip occurs, the application of the standard limit analysis theorems constitutes an excellent tool due to its simplicity and robustness. It is enough find any equilibrium solution which satisfy the limit constraints of the material. As we are certain that this load will be equal to or less than the actual load of the onset of collapse, it is not necessary to know the actual stresses state. Furthermore this load for the onset of collapse is unique (uniqueness theorem), and it can be obtained as the optimal from any of two mathematical convex duals programs However, if the mechanisms of the onset of collapse involve sliding, any solution must satisfy both static and kinematic constraints, and also a special kind of disjunctive constraints linking the previous ones, which can be formulated as complementarity constraints. In the latter case, it is not guaranted the existence of a single solution, so it is necessary to look for other ways to treat the uncertainty associated with its multiplicity. In recent years, research has been focused on finding an absolute minimum below which collapse is impossible. This method is easy to set from a mathematical point of view, but computationally intractable. This is due to the complementarity constraints 0 y z 0 , which are neither convex nor smooth. The computational complexity of the resulting decision problem is "Not-deterministic Polynomialcomplete" (NP-complete), and the corresponding global optimization problem is NP-hard. However, obtaining a solution (success is not guaranteed) is an affordable problem. This thesis proposes solve that problem through Successive Linear Programming: taking advantage of the special characteristics of complementarity constraints, which written in bilinear form are y z = 0; y 0; z 0 ; and taking advantage of the fact that the complementarity error (bilinear form) is an exact penalty function. But when it comes to finding the worst solution, the (equivalent) global optimization problem is intractable (NP-hard). Furthermore, until a minimum or maximum principle is not demonstrated, it is questionable that the effort expended in approximating this minimum is justified. XIV In chapter 5, it is proposed find the frequency distribution of the load factor, for all possible solutions of the onset of collapse, on a simple example. For this purpose, a Monte Carlo sampling of solutions is performed using a contrast method "exact computation of polytopes". The ultimate goal is to determine to which extent the search of the global minimum is justified, and to propose an alternative approach to safety assessment based on probabilities. The frequency distributions for the case study show that both the maximum and the minimum load factors are very infrequent, especially when the contact gets more perfect and more continuous. The results indicates the interest of developing new probabilistic methods. In Chapter 6, is proposed a method based on multiple solutions obtained from random starting points, and qualifying the results through Order Statistics. The purpose is to determine the probability for each solution of the onset of collapse. The method is applied (according to expectations reduction given by the Ordinal Optimization) to obtain a solution that is in a certain percentage of the worst. Finally, in Chapter 7, hybrid methods incorporating metaheuristics are proposed for cases in which the search for the global minimum is justified.

Seismicity and seismic risk in Spain = Sismicite et risque sismique en Espagne

The spanish seismic norm has a direct application in building construction but it recomends specific studies in the case of important public works such us large dams or bridges. For this reason, and to establish specifical criteria in its field of activity, the Dirección General de Obras Hidráulicas of the spanish Ministerio de Obras Públicas y Urbanismo commissioned us a seismotectonical and seismic risk study applicable to Spain, materialized on a series of maps of inmediate and direct use. In this paper we explain the methodology pursued to obtain these maps. It has required, firstly, investigations with the aim to improve the seismic information corresponding to the historical or preinstrumental period, that allowed more precise cuantifications. Secondly, these data have been processed by probabilistic methods, using de intensity as foundamental parameter. The corresponding maps have been developed. Finally, other maps of seismic accelerations have been compiled. La normative sismorresistent espagnole á une application directe dans 1'edification, mais elle recommend la realitation des etudes especifiques dans le cas des travaux publics importants telles que ponts ou barrages. Pour cette raison et pour etablir des criteres especifiques dans son camp dáctivité, la Direccion General de Obras Hidraulicas du Ministerio de Obras Publicas y Urbanismo espagnol a commande un etude sismotectonique et de risque sismique applicable a l'Espagne, materialise en une serie de cartes de utilization directe et inmediate. Dans cette communication on explique la methodologie a suivre pour la realization de cettes cartes. Celá a fait necessaire, d'abord, des recherches pour amelliorer l'information concernant le periode historique ou preinstrumental, ce qui permet des cuantifications plus precises. En second lieu ces faits ont ête traités avec des methodes probabilistes, employant l'intensité come parametre fondamental. En consequence nous avons developpe des cartes d'intensite et d'acceleration sismique.

Monte Carlo Neutronics and Thermal-hydraulics coupling applied to Fast Reactors

Un escenario habitualmente considerado para el uso sostenible y prolongado de la energía nuclear contempla un parque de reactores rápidos refrigerados por metales líquidos (LMFR) dedicados al reciclado de Pu y la transmutación de actínidos minoritarios (MA). Otra opción es combinar dichos reactores con algunos sistemas subcríticos asistidos por acelerador (ADS), exclusivamente destinados a la eliminación de MA. El diseño y licenciamiento de estos reactores innovadores requiere herramientas computacionales prácticas y precisas, que incorporen el conocimiento obtenido en la investigación experimental de nuevas configuraciones de reactores, materiales y sistemas. A pesar de que se han construido y operado un cierto número de reactores rápidos a nivel mundial, la experiencia operacional es todavía reducida y no todos los transitorios se han podido entender completamente. Por tanto, los análisis de seguridad de nuevos LMFR están basados fundamentalmente en métodos deterministas, al contrario que las aproximaciones modernas para reactores de agua ligera (LWR), que se benefician también de los métodos probabilistas. La aproximación más usada en los estudios de seguridad de LMFR es utilizar una variedad de códigos, desarrollados a base de distintas teorías, en busca de soluciones integrales para los transitorios e incluyendo incertidumbres. En este marco, los nuevos códigos para cálculos de mejor estimación ("best estimate") que no incluyen aproximaciones conservadoras, son de una importancia primordial para analizar estacionarios y transitorios en reactores rápidos. Esta tesis se centra en el desarrollo de un código acoplado para realizar análisis realistas en reactores rápidos críticos aplicando el método de Monte Carlo. Hoy en día, dado el mayor potencial de recursos computacionales, los códigos de transporte neutrónico por Monte Carlo se pueden usar de manera práctica para realizar cálculos detallados de núcleos completos, incluso de elevada heterogeneidad material. Además, los códigos de Monte Carlo se toman normalmente como referencia para los códigos deterministas de difusión en multigrupos en aplicaciones con reactores rápidos, porque usan secciones eficaces punto a punto, un modelo geométrico exacto y tienen en cuenta intrínsecamente la dependencia angular de flujo. En esta tesis se presenta una metodología de acoplamiento entre el conocido código MCNP, que calcula la generación de potencia en el reactor, y el código de termohidráulica de subcanal COBRA-IV, que obtiene las distribuciones de temperatura y densidad en el sistema. COBRA-IV es un código apropiado para aplicaciones en reactores rápidos ya que ha sido validado con resultados experimentales en haces de barras con sodio, incluyendo las correlaciones más apropiadas para metales líquidos. En una primera fase de la tesis, ambos códigos se han acoplado en estado estacionario utilizando un método iterativo con intercambio de archivos externos. El principal problema en el acoplamiento neutrónico y termohidráulico en estacionario con códigos de Monte Carlo es la manipulación de las secciones eficaces para tener en cuenta el ensanchamiento Doppler cuando la temperatura del combustible aumenta. Entre todas las opciones disponibles, en esta tesis se ha escogido la aproximación de pseudo materiales, y se ha comprobado que proporciona resultados aceptables en su aplicación con reactores rápidos. Por otro lado, los cambios geométricos originados por grandes gradientes de temperatura en el núcleo de reactores rápidos resultan importantes para la neutrónica como consecuencia del elevado recorrido libre medio del neutrón en estos sistemas. Por tanto, se ha desarrollado un módulo adicional que simula la geometría del reactor en caliente y permite estimar la reactividad debido a la expansión del núcleo en un transitorio. éste módulo calcula automáticamente la longitud del combustible, el radio de la vaina, la separación de los elementos de combustible y el radio de la placa soporte en función de la temperatura. éste efecto es muy relevante en transitorios sin inserción de bancos de parada. También relacionado con los cambios geométricos, se ha implementado una herramienta que, automatiza el movimiento de las barras de control en busca d la criticidad del reactor, o bien calcula el valor de inserción axial las barras de control. Una segunda fase en la plataforma de cálculo que se ha desarrollado es la simulació dinámica. Puesto que MCNP sólo realiza cálculos estacionarios para sistemas críticos o supercríticos, la solución más directa que se propone sin modificar el código fuente de MCNP es usar la aproximación de factorización de flujo, que resuelve por separado la forma del flujo y la amplitud. En este caso se han estudiado en profundidad dos aproximaciones: adiabática y quasiestática. El método adiabático usa un esquema de acoplamiento que alterna en el tiempo los cálculos neutrónicos y termohidráulicos. MCNP calcula el modo fundamental de la distribución de neutrones y la reactividad al final de cada paso de tiempo, y COBRA-IV calcula las propiedades térmicas en el punto intermedio de los pasos de tiempo. La evolución de la amplitud de flujo se calcula resolviendo las ecuaciones de cinética puntual. Este método calcula la reactividad estática en cada paso de tiempo que, en general, difiere de la reactividad dinámica que se obtendría con la distribución de flujo exacta y dependiente de tiempo. No obstante, para entornos no excesivamente alejados de la criticidad ambas reactividades son similares y el método conduce a resultados prácticos aceptables. Siguiendo esta línea, se ha desarrollado después un método mejorado para intentar tener en cuenta el efecto de la fuente de neutrones retardados en la evolución de la forma del flujo durante el transitorio. El esquema consiste en realizar un cálculo cuasiestacionario por cada paso de tiempo con MCNP. La simulación cuasiestacionaria se basa EN la aproximación de fuente constante de neutrones retardados, y consiste en dar un determinado peso o importancia a cada ciclo computacial del cálculo de criticidad con MCNP para la estimación del flujo final. Ambos métodos se han verificado tomando como referencia los resultados del código de difusión COBAYA3 frente a un ejercicio común y suficientemente significativo. Finalmente, con objeto de demostrar la posibilidad de uso práctico del código, se ha simulado un transitorio en el concepto de reactor crítico en fase de diseño MYRRHA/FASTEF, de 100 MW de potencia térmica y refrigerado por plomo-bismuto. ABSTRACT Long term sustainable nuclear energy scenarios envisage a fleet of Liquid Metal Fast Reactors (LMFR) for the Pu recycling and minor actinides (MAs) transmutation or combined with some accelerator driven systems (ADS) just for MAs elimination. Design and licensing of these innovative reactor concepts require accurate computational tools, implementing the knowledge obtained in experimental research for new reactor configurations, materials and associated systems. Although a number of fast reactor systems have already been built, the operational experience is still reduced, especially for lead reactors, and not all the transients are fully understood. The safety analysis approach for LMFR is therefore based only on deterministic methods, different from modern approach for Light Water Reactors (LWR) which also benefit from probabilistic methods. Usually, the approach adopted in LMFR safety assessments is to employ a variety of codes, somewhat different for the each other, to analyze transients looking for a comprehensive solution and including uncertainties. In this frame, new best estimate simulation codes are of prime importance in order to analyze fast reactors steady state and transients. This thesis is focused on the development of a coupled code system for best estimate analysis in fast critical reactor. Currently due to the increase in the computational resources, Monte Carlo methods for neutrons transport can be used for detailed full core calculations. Furthermore, Monte Carlo codes are usually taken as reference for deterministic diffusion multigroups codes in fast reactors applications because they employ point-wise cross sections in an exact geometry model and intrinsically account for directional dependence of the ux. The coupling methodology presented here uses MCNP to calculate the power deposition within the reactor. The subchannel code COBRA-IV calculates the temperature and density distribution within the reactor. COBRA-IV is suitable for fast reactors applications because it has been validated against experimental results in sodium rod bundles. The proper correlations for liquid metal applications have been added to the thermal-hydraulics program. Both codes are coupled at steady state using an iterative method and external files exchange. The main issue in the Monte Carlo/thermal-hydraulics steady state coupling is the cross section handling to take into account Doppler broadening when temperature rises. Among every available options, the pseudo materials approach has been chosen in this thesis. This approach obtains reasonable results in fast reactor applications. Furthermore, geometrical changes caused by large temperature gradients in the core, are of major importance in fast reactor due to the large neutron mean free path. An additional module has therefore been included in order to simulate the reactor geometry in hot state or to estimate the reactivity due to core expansion in a transient. The module automatically calculates the fuel length, cladding radius, fuel assembly pitch and diagrid radius with the temperature. This effect will be crucial in some unprotected transients. Also related to geometrical changes, an automatic control rod movement feature has been implemented in order to achieve a just critical reactor or to calculate control rod worth. A step forward in the coupling platform is the dynamic simulation. Since MCNP performs only steady state calculations for critical systems, the more straight forward option without modifying MCNP source code, is to use the flux factorization approach solving separately the flux shape and amplitude. In this thesis two options have been studied to tackle time dependent neutronic simulations using a Monte Carlo code: adiabatic and quasistatic methods. The adiabatic methods uses a staggered time coupling scheme for the time advance of neutronics and the thermal-hydraulics calculations. MCNP computes the fundamental mode of the neutron flux distribution and the reactivity at the end of each time step and COBRA-IV the thermal properties at half of the the time steps. To calculate the flux amplitude evolution a solver of the point kinetics equations is used. This method calculates the static reactivity in each time step that in general is different from the dynamic reactivity calculated with the exact flux distribution. Nevertheless, for close to critical situations, both reactivities are similar and the method leads to acceptable practical results. In this line, an improved method as an attempt to take into account the effect of delayed neutron source in the transient flux shape evolutions is developed. The scheme performs a quasistationary calculation per time step with MCNP. This quasistationary simulations is based con the constant delayed source approach, taking into account the importance of each criticality cycle in the final flux estimation. Both adiabatic and quasistatic methods have been verified against the diffusion code COBAYA3, using a theoretical kinetic exercise. Finally, a transient in a critical 100 MWth lead-bismuth-eutectic reactor concept is analyzed using the adiabatic method as an application example in a real system.

Some past decision theory models for euro construction model codes and for road drainage in Spain, and modest hints with multi-criteria methods for agro and environmental assurance

The authors are from UPM and are relatively grouped, and all have intervened in different academic or real cases on the subject, at different times as being of different age. With precedent from E. Torroja and A. Páez in Madrid Spain Safety Probabilistic models for concrete about 1957, now in ICOSSAR conferences, author J.M. Antón involved since autumn 1967 for euro-steel construction in CECM produced a math model for independent load superposition reductions, and using it a load coefficient pattern for codes in Rome Feb. 1969, practically adopted for European constructions, giving in JCSS Lisbon Feb. 1974 suggestion of union for concrete-steel-al.. That model uses model for loads like Gumbel type I, for 50 years for one type of load, reduced to 1 year to be added to other independent loads, the sum set in Gumbel theories to 50 years return period, there are parallel models. A complete reliability system was produced, including non linear effects as from buckling, phenomena considered somehow in actual Construction Eurocodes produced from Model Codes. The system was considered by author in CEB in presence of Hydraulic effects from rivers, floods, sea, in reference with actual practice. When redacting a Road Drainage Norm in MOPU Spain an optimization model was realized by authors giving a way to determine the figure of Return Period, 10 to 50 years, for the cases of hydraulic flows to be considered in road drainage. Satisfactory examples were a stream in SE of Spain with Gumbel Type I model and a paper of Ven Te Chow with Mississippi in Keokuk using Gumbel type II, and the model can be modernized with more varied extreme laws. In fact in the MOPU drainage norm the redacting commission acted also as expert to set a table of return periods for elements of road drainage, in fact as a multi-criteria complex decision system. These precedent ideas were used e.g. in wide Codes, indicated in symposia or meetings, but not published in journals in English, and a condensate of contributions of authors is presented. The authors are somehow involved in optimization for hydraulic and agro planning, and give modest hints of intended applications in presence of agro and environment planning as a selection of the criteria and utility functions involved in bayesian, multi-criteria or mixed decision systems. Modest consideration is made of changing in climate, and on the production and commercial systems, and on others as social and financial.

Grid-based histogram arithmetic for the probabilistic analysis of functions

The selection of predefined analytic grids (partitions of the numeric ranges) to represent input and output functions as histograms has been proposed as a mechanism of approximation in order to control the tradeoff between accuracy and computation times in several áreas ranging from simulation to constraint solving. In particular, the application of interval methods for probabilistic function characterization has been shown to have advantages over other methods based on the simulation of random samples. However, standard interval arithmetic has always been used for the computation steps. In this paper, we introduce an alternative approximate arithmetic aimed at controlling the cost of the interval operations. Its distinctive feature is that grids are taken into account by the operators. We apply the technique in the context of probability density functions in order to improve the accuracy of the probability estimates. Results show that this approach has advantages over existing approaches in some particular situations, although computation times tend to increase significantly when analyzing large functions.

A review on probabilistic graphical models in evolutionary computation

Thanks to their inherent properties, probabilistic graphical models are one of the prime candidates for machine learning and decision making tasks especially in uncertain domains. Their capabilities, like representation, inference and learning, if used effectively, can greatly help to build intelligent systems that are able to act accordingly in different problem domains. Evolutionary algorithms is one such discipline that has employed probabilistic graphical models to improve the search for optimal solutions in complex problems. This paper shows how probabilistic graphical models have been used in evolutionary algorithms to improve their performance in solving complex problems. Specifically, we give a survey of probabilistic model building-based evolutionary algorithms, called estimation of distribution algorithms, and compare different methods for probabilistic modeling in these algorithms.

Fusion of probabilistic knowledge-based classification rules and learning automata for automatic recognition of digital images

In this paper, the fusion of probabilistic knowledge-based classification rules and learning automata theory is proposed and as a result we present a set of probabilistic classification rules with self-learning capability. The probabilities of the classification rules change dynamically guided by a supervised reinforcement process aimed at obtaining an optimum classification accuracy. This novel classifier is applied to the automatic recognition of digital images corresponding to visual landmarks for the autonomous navigation of an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) developed by the authors. The classification accuracy of the proposed classifier and its comparison with well-established pattern recognition methods is finally reported.

Level 2 reliability of simplified pushover methods

Pushover methods are being used as an everyday tool in engineering practice and some of them have been included in Regulatory Codes. Recently several efforts have been done trying to look at them from a probabilistic viewpoint. In this paper the authors shall present a Level 2 approach based on a probabilistic definition of the characteristic points defining the response spectra as well as a probabilistic definition of the elasto-plastic pushover curve representing the structural behavior. Comparisons with Montecarlo simulations will help to precise the accuracy of the proposed approach.

Probabilistic assessment of risk from the exposure to mercury in artisanal gold mining communities in Colombia

Colombia is one the largest per capita mercury polluters as a consequence of its artisanal gold mining operations, which are steadily increasing following the rising price of this metal. Compared to gravimetric separation methods and cyanidation, the concentration of gold using Hg amalgams presents several advantages: the process is less time-consuming and minimizes gold losses, and Hg is easily transported and inexpensive relative to the selling price of gold. Very often, mercury amalgamation is carried out on site by unprotected workers. During this operation large amounts of mercury are discharged to the environment and eventually reach the fresh water bodies in the vicinity where it is subjected to methylation. Additionally, as gold is released from the amalgam by heating on open charcoal furnaces in small workshops, mercury vapors are emitted and inhaled by the artisanal smelters and the general population

Integrated deterministic-probabilistic safety assessment methodologies

(ENG) IDPSA (Integrated Deterministic-Probabilistic Safety Assessment) is a family of methods which use tightly coupled probabilistic and deterministic approaches to address respective sources of uncertainties, enabling Risk informed decision making in a consistent manner. The starting point of the IDPSA framework is that safety justification must be based on the coupling of deterministic (consequences) and probabilistic (frequency) considerations to address the mutual interactions between stochastic disturbances (e.g. failures of the equipment, human actions, stochastic physical phenomena) and deterministic response of the plant (i.e. transients). This paper gives a general overview of some IDPSA methods as well as some possible applications to PWR safety analyses (SPA)DPSA (Metodologías Integradas de Análisis Determinista-Probabilista de Seguridad) es un conjunto de métodos que utilizan métodos probabilistas y deterministas estrechamente acoplados para abordar las respectivas fuentes de incertidumbre, permitiendo la toma de decisiones Informada por el Riesgo de forma consistente. El punto de inicio del marco IDPSA es que la justificación de seguridad debe estar basada en el acoplamiento entre consideraciones deterministas (consecuencias) y probabilistas (frecuencia) para abordar la interacción mutua entre perturbaciones estocásticas (como por ejemplo fallos de los equipos, acciones humanas, fenómenos físicos estocásticos) y la respuesta determinista de la planta (como por ejemplo los transitorios). Este artículo da una visión general de algunos métodos IDSPA así como posibles aplicaciones al análisis de seguridad de los PWR.