Price Formation and Real Estate Characteristics Residential Real Estate, Lisbon - Portugal

Análisis del proceso de formación de precios en el mercado residencial de Lisboa desde el punto de vista de la eliminación de los aspectos subjetivos de la apreciación por el tasador de las características de los inmuebles

Forecasting Electricity Prices and their volatilities using Unobserved Components.

The liberalization of electricity markets more than ten years ago in the vast majority of developed countries has introduced the need of modelling and forecasting electricity prices and volatilities, both in the short and long term. Thus, there is a need of providing methodology that is able to deal with the most important features of electricity price series, which are well known for presenting not only structure in conditional mean but also time-varying conditional variances. In this work we propose a new model, which allows to extract conditionally heteroskedastic common factors from the vector of electricity prices. These common factors are jointly estimated as well as their relationship with the original vector of series, and the dynamics affecting both their conditional mean and variance. The estimation of the model is carried out under the state-space formulation. The new model proposed is applied to extract seasonal common dynamic factors as well as common volatility factors for electricity prices and the estimation results are used to forecast electricity prices and their volatilities in the Spanish zone of the Iberian Market. Several simplified/alternative models are also considered as benchmarks to illustrate that the proposed approach is superior to all of them in terms of explanatory and predictive power.

The history of technology in education. A comparative study and forecast

Area, launched in 1999 with the Bologna Declaration, has bestowed such a magnitude and unprecedented agility to the transformation process undertaken by European universities. However, the change has been more profound and drastic with regards to the use of new technologies both inside and outside the classroom. This article focuses on the study and analysis of the technology’s history within the university education and its impact on teachers, students and teaching methods. All the elements that have been significant and innovative throughout the history inside the teaching process have been analyzed, from the use of blackboard and chalk during lectures, the use of slide projectors and transparent slides, to the use of electronic whiteboards and Internet nowadays. The study is complemented with two types of surveys that have been performed among teachers and students during the school years 1999 - 2011 in the School of Civil Engineering at the Polytechnic University of Madrid. The pros and cons of each of the techniques and methodologies used in the learning process over the last decades are described, unfolding how they have affected the teacher, who has evolved from writing on a whiteboard to project onto a screen, the student, who has evolved from taking handwritten notes to download information or search the Internet, and the educational process, that has evolved from the lecture to acollaborative learning and project-based learning. It is unknown how the process of learning will evolve in the future, but we do know the consequences that some of the multimedia technologies are having on teachers, students and the learning process. It is our goal as teachers to keep ourselves up to date, in order to offer the student adequate technical content, while providing proper motivation through the use of new technologies. The study provides a forecast in the evolution of multimedia within the classroom and the renewal of the education process, which in our view, will set the basis for future learning process within the context of this new interactive era.

Economics and forecast of energy consumption in NGN networks: the case of Spain

Reducing energy consumption is one of the main goals of sustainability planning in most countries. For instance in Europe, the EC established the objectives in the Communication “20 20 by 2020 Europe's climate change opportunity”.

Energy Consumption Forecast in 4G Networks: The Case of Spain

Reducing energy consumption is one of the main goals of sustainability planning in most countries. For instance in Europe, the EC established the objectives in the Communication “20 20 by 2020 Europe's climate change opportunity”. • Next Generation Networks (NGN)  One of the most relevant upcoming ICT development • The role of energy consumption seems mostly absent from the main analysis and the debate on NGN deployment.

Contribution to energy consumption modelling and forecast in next generation access networks

La contribución del sector de las tecnologías de la información y las comunicaciones (TICs) al consumo de energía a nivel global se ha visto incrementada considerablemente en la última década al mismo tiempo que su relevancia dentro de la economía global. Se prevé que esta tendencia continúe debido al uso cada vez más intensivo de estas tecnologías. Una de las principales causas es el tráfico de datos de banda ancha generado por el uso de las redes de telecomunicaciones. De hecho como respuesta a esta demanda de recursos por parte de los usuarios, de la industria de las telecomunicaciones está iniciando el despliegue de las redes de nueva generación. En cualquier caso, el consumo de energía es un factor generalmente ausente del debate sobre el despliegue de estas tecnologías, a pesar de la posible repercusión que pueda llegar a tener en los costes y la sostenibilidad de estos proyectos. A lo largo de este trabajo se desarrollan modelos para evaluar el consumo energético de las redes de acceso de nueva generación (NGAN). Estos servirán tanto para llevar a cabo cálculos en un escenario global estático, como en cualquiera otro que determine la potencial evolución de la red de acceso a lo largo de su despliegue. Estos modelos combinan tres factores: la penetración prospectiva de cada una de las tecnologías de banda ancha analizadas, el tráfico generado por usuario y su futura evolución, y el perfil de consumo de energía de cada uno de los dispositivos de red desplegados. Tras evaluar los resultados derivados de la aplicación de los modelos en el caso demográfico específico de España, se obtienen conclusiones acerca de las diferencias tecnológicas en cuanto al consumo energético, sus implicaciones económicas, y la sensibilidad de los cálculos atendiendo a posibles modificaciones en los valores de referencia de diferentes parámetros de diseño. Se destaca por tanto el efecto en el consumo energético de los desarrollos tecnológicos, tecno-económicos, y de las decisiones en el ámbito regulatorio. Aunque como se ha dicho, se ha ejemplificado el cálculo para un caso particular, tanto los modelos como las conclusiones extraídas se pueden extrapolar a otros países similares.

Factors influencing metal price selection in mining feasibility studies

The mineral price assigned in mining project design is critical to determining the economic feasibility of a project. Nevertheless, although it is not difficult to find literature about market metal prices, it is much more complicated to achieve a specific methodology for calculating the value or which justifications are appropriate to include. This study presents an analysis of various methods for selecting metal prices and investigates the mechanisms and motives underlying price selections. The results describe various attitudes adopted by the designers of mining investment projects, and how the price can be determined not just by means of forecasting but also by consideration of other relevant parameters.

Analysis of the Iberian Power Forward Price Formation

The price formation of the Iberian Energy Derivatives Market-the power futures market-starting in July 2006, is assessed until November 2011, through the evolution of the difference between forward and spot prices in the delivery period (“ex-post forward risk premium”) and the comparison with the forward generation costs from natural gas (“clean spark spread”). The premium tends to be positive in all existing mechanisms (futures, Over-the-Counter and auctions for catering part of the last resort supplies). Since year 2011, the values are smaller due to regulatorily recognized prices for coal power plants. The power futures are strongly correlated with European gas prices. The spreads built with prompt contracts tend also to be positive. The biggest ones are for the month contract, followed by the quarter contract and then by the year contract. Therefore, gas fired generation companies can maximize profits trading with contracts of shorter maturity.

An Empirical Analysis of the Spanish Gas Price Structure

We can say without hesitation that in energy markets a throughout data analysis is crucial when designing sophisticated models that are able to capture most of the critical market drivers. In this study we will attempt to investigate into Spanish natural gas prices structure to improve understanding of the role they play in the determination of electricity prices and decide in the future about price modelling aspects. To further understand the potential for modelling, this study will focus on the nature and characteristics of the different gas price data available. The fact that the existing gas market in Spain does not incorporate enough liquidity of trade makes it even more critical to analyze in detail available gas price data information that in the end will provide relevant information to understand how electricity prices are affected by natural gas markets. In this sense representative Spanish gas prices are typically difficult to explore given the fact that there is not a transparent gas market yet and all the gas imported in the country is negotiated and purchased by private companies at confidential terms.

Electricity price forecasting accounting for renewable energies: optimal combined forecasts

Electricity price forecasting is an interesting problem for all the agents involved in electricity market operation. For instance, every profit maximisation strategy is based on the computation of accurate one-day-ahead forecasts, which is why electricity price forecasting has been a growing field of research in recent years. In addition, the increasing concern about environmental issues has led to a high penetration of renewable energies, particularly wind. In some European countries such as Spain, Germany and Denmark, renewable energy is having a deep impact on the local power markets. In this paper, we propose an optimal model from the perspective of forecasting accuracy, and it consists of a combination of several univariate and multivariate time series methods that account for the amount of energy produced with clean energies, particularly wind and hydro, which are the most relevant renewable energy sources in the Iberian Market. This market is used to illustrate the proposed methodology, as it is one of those markets in which wind power production is more relevant in terms of its percentage of the total demand, but of course our method can be applied to any other liberalised power market. As far as our contribution is concerned, first, the methodology proposed by García-Martos et al(2007 and 2012) is generalised twofold: we allow the incorporation of wind power production and hydro reservoirs, and we do not impose the restriction of using the same model for 24h. A computational experiment and a Design of Experiments (DOE) are performed for this purpose. Then, for those hours in which there are two or more models without statistically significant differences in terms of their forecasting accuracy, a combination of forecasts is proposed by weighting the best models(according to the DOE) and minimising the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The MAPE is the most popular accuracy metric for comparing electricity price forecasting models. We construct the combi nation of forecasts by solving several nonlinear optimisation problems that allow computation of the optimal weights for building the combination of forecasts. The results are obtained by a large computational experiment that entails calculating out-of-sample forecasts for every hour in every day in the period from January 2007 to Decem ber 2009. In addition, to reinforce the value of our methodology, we compare our results with those that appear in recent published works in the field. This comparison shows the superiority of our methodology in terms of forecasting accuracy.

Impact of introducing longer and heavier vehicles on regional consumer price index and Spanish road freight transport system

This paper applies an integrated modeling approach to the case of Spain; the approach is based on a random utility-based multiregional input-output model and a road transport network model for assessing the effect of introducing longer and heavier vehicles (LHVs) on the regional consumer price index (CPI) and on the transportation system. The approach strongly supports the concept that changes in transport costs derived from the LHV allowance as well as the economic structure of regions have direct and indirect effects on the economy and on the transportation system. Results show that the introduction of LHVs might reduce prices paid by consumers for a representative basket of goods and services in the regions of Spain and would also lead to a reduction in the regional CPI. In addition, the magnitude and extent of changes in the transportation system are estimated by using the commodity-based structure of the approach to identify the effect of traffic changes on traffic flows and on pollutant emissions over the whole network.

Estrategia de desarrollo de negocio para el producto Atos RTTF (Real Time Traffic Forecast)

El objetivo del presente proyecto de fin de máster es desplegar la estrategia de negocio completa, desde las declaraciones y premisas hasta la implantación y ejecución, para una solución novedosa de la compañía AtoS. Esta solución se denomina RTTF (Real Time Traffic Forecast), y sus objetivos principales, a alto nivel, son los siguientes: a) Conseguir unas mejores ciudades en la que vivir y trabajar. b) Realizar una gestión de tráfico proactiva para un uso de recursos de las ciudades optimizado. Nuestro planteamiento en este trabajo es, basado en las el módulo de estrategia del máster, diseñar un plan de negocio para desarrollar y potenciar la anterior solución. Para ello también necesitaremos herramientas de otros módulos del máster, como el de marketing, operaciones, o finanzas. Para ello, comenzaremos analizando el entorno desde el punto de vista de la posible receptividad al producto, así como de los posibles competidores, con objeto de posicionar de manera inicial nuestra solución, y reflexionar sobre si ese posicionamiento es el adecuado. Añadiendo también el estudio interno de la compañía y de la propia solución sobre la que versa el proyecto. El principal entregable del presente trabajo será un plan de negocio, con fechas, objetivos y un listado de clientes por orden de prioridad, con el objetivo final de desarrollar la solución.

Modelos para el análisis dinámico y la predicción a corto plazo de los precios de la electricidad en mercados liberalizados

En esta tesis se va a describir y aplicar de forma novedosa la técnica del alisado exponencial multivariante a la predicción a corto plazo, a un día vista, de los precios horarios de la electricidad, un problema que se está estudiando intensivamente en la literatura estadística y económica reciente. Se van a demostrar ciertas propiedades interesantes del alisado exponencial multivariante que permiten reducir el número de parámetros para caracterizar la serie temporal y que al mismo tiempo permiten realizar un análisis dinámico factorial de la serie de precios horarios de la electricidad. En particular, este proceso multivariante de elevada dimensión se estimará descomponiéndolo en un número reducido de procesos univariantes independientes de alisado exponencial caracterizado cada uno por un solo parámetro de suavizado que variará entre cero (proceso de ruido blanco) y uno (paseo aleatorio). Para ello, se utilizará la formulación en el espacio de los estados para la estimación del modelo, ya que ello permite conectar esa secuencia de modelos univariantes más eficientes con el modelo multivariante. De manera novedosa, las relaciones entre los dos modelos se obtienen a partir de un simple tratamiento algebraico sin requerir la aplicación del filtro de Kalman. De este modo, se podrán analizar y poner al descubierto las razones últimas de la dinámica de precios de la electricidad. Por otra parte, la vertiente práctica de esta metodología se pondrá de manifiesto con su aplicación práctica a ciertos mercados eléctricos spot, tales como Omel, Powernext y Nord Pool. En los citados mercados se caracterizará la evolución de los precios horarios y se establecerán sus predicciones comparándolas con las de otras técnicas de predicción. ABSTRACT This thesis describes and applies the multivariate exponential smoothing technique to the day-ahead forecast of the hourly prices of electricity in a whole new way. This problem is being studied intensively in recent statistics and economics literature. It will start by demonstrating some interesting properties of the multivariate exponential smoothing that reduce drastically the number of parameters to characterize the time series and that at the same time allow a dynamic factor analysis of the hourly prices of electricity series. In particular this very complex multivariate process of dimension 24 will be estimated by decomposing a very reduced number of univariate independent of exponentially smoothing processes each characterized by a single smoothing parameter that varies between zero (white noise process) and one (random walk). To this end, the formulation is used in the state space model for the estimation, since this connects the sequence of efficient univariate models to the multivariate model. Through a novel way, relations between the two models are obtained from a simple algebraic treatment without applying the Kalman filter. Thus, we will analyze and expose the ultimate reasons for the dynamics of the electricity price. Moreover, the practical aspect of this methodology will be shown by applying this new technique to certain electricity spot markets such as Omel, Powernext and Nord Pool. In those markets the behavior of prices will be characterized, their predictions will be formulated and the results will be compared with those of other forecasting techniques.

PV power forecast using a nonparametric PV model

Forecasting the AC power output of a PV plant accurately is important both for plant owners and electric system operators. Two main categories of PV modeling are available: the parametric and the nonparametric. In this paper, a methodology using a nonparametric PV model is proposed, using as inputs several forecasts of meteorological variables from a Numerical Weather Forecast model, and actual AC power measurements of PV plants. The methodology was built upon the R environment and uses Quantile Regression Forests as machine learning tool to forecast AC power with a confidence interval. Real data from five PV plants was used to validate the methodology, and results show that daily production is predicted with an absolute cvMBE lower than 1.3%.

Hacia una arquitectura de procesos : transformaciones disciplinares a través de la Computación en los modelos de Alexander, Negroponte y Price

La premisa inicial de la tesis examina cómo las secuelas de Segunda Guerra mundial motivaron una revisión general de la Ciencia y procuraron una nueva relación entre el hombre y su entorno. Matemáticas, Física y Biología gestaron las Ciencias de la Computación como disciplina de convergencia. En un momento de re-definición del objeto científico, una serie de arquitectos vislumbraron la oportunidad para transformar ciertas convenciones disciplinares. Mediante la incorporación de ontologías y procedimientos de cibernética y computación, trazaron un nuevo espacio arquitectónico. Legitimados por un despegue tecnológico incuestionable, desafían los límites de la profesión explorando campos abiertos a nuevos programas y acciones; amplían el dominio natural de la Arquitectura más allá del objeto(terminado) hacia el proceso(abierto). Se da inicio a la tesis describiendo los antecedentes que conducen a ese escenario de cambio. Se anotan aspectos de Teoría de Sistemas, Computación, Biología y de ciertos referentes de Arquitectura con relevancia para esa nuevo planteamiento. En esos antecedentes residen los argumentos para orientar la disciplina hacia el trabajo con procesos. La linea argumental central del texto aborda la obra de Christopher Alexander, Nicholas Negroponte y Cedric Price a través de una producción teórica y práctica transformada por la computación, y examina la contribución conceptual de cada autor. El análisis comparado de sus modelos se dispone mediante la disección de tres conceptos convergentes: Sistema, Código y Proceso. La discusión crítica se articula por una triangulación entre los autores, donde se identifican comparando por pares las coincidencias y controversias entre ellos. Sirve este procedimiento al propósito de tender un puente conceptual con el escenario arquitectónico actual estimando el impacto de sus propuestas. Se valora su contribución en la deriva del programa cerrado a la especulación , de lo formal a lo informal, de lo único a lo múltiple; del estudio de arquitectura al laboratorio de investigación. Para guiar ese recorrido por la significación de cada autor en el desarrollo digital de la disciplina, se incorporan a la escena dos predicados esenciales; expertos en computación que trabajaron de enlace entre los autores, matizando el significado de sus modelos. El trabajo de Gordon Pask y John Frazer constituye el vehículo de transmisión de los hallazgos de aquellos años, prolonga los caminos iniciados entonces, en la arquitectura de hoy y la que ya se está diseñando para mañana. ABSTRACT The initial premise of the thesis examines how the aftermath of second world war motivated a general revision of science and procure the basis of a new relation between mankind and its environment. Mathematics, Physics, and Biology gave birth to the Computer Sciences as a blend of different knowledge and procedures. In a time when the object of major sciences was being redefined, a few architects saw a promising opportunity for transforming the Architectural convention. By implementing the concepts, ontology and procedures of Cybernetics, Artificial Intelligence and Information Technology, they envisioned a new space for their discipline. In the verge of transgression three prescient architects proposed complete architectural systems through their writings and projects; New systems that challenged the profession exploring open fields through program and action, questioning the culture of conservatism; They shifted architectural endeavor from object to process. The thesis starts describing the scientific and architectural background that lead to that opportunity, annotating aspects of Systems Theory, Computing, Biology and previous Architecture form the process perspective. It then focuses on the Works of Christopher Alexander, Nicholas Negroponte and Cedric Price through their work, and examines each authors conceptual contribution. It proceeds to a critical analysis of their proposals on three key converging aspects: system, architectural encoding and process. Finally, the thesis provides a comparative discussion between the three authors, and unfolds the impact of their work in todays architectural scenario. Their contribution to shift from service to speculation, from formal to informal , from unitary to multiple; from orthodox architecture studio to open laboratories of praxis through research. In order to conclude that triangle of concepts, other contributions come into scene to provide relevant predicates and complete those models. A reference to Gordon Pask and John Frazer is then provided with particular interest in their role as link between those pioneers and todays perspective, pushing the boundaries of both what architecture was and what it could become.