A model for turbulent combustion simulation of large scale hydrogen explosions

El agotamiento, la ausencia o, simplemente, la incertidumbre sobre la cantidad de las reservas de combustibles fósiles se añaden a la variabilidad de los precios y a la creciente inestabilidad en la cadena de aprovisionamiento para crear fuertes incentivos para el desarrollo de fuentes y vectores energéticos alternativos. El atractivo de hidrógeno como vector energético es muy alto en un contexto que abarca, además, fuertes inquietudes por parte de la población sobre la contaminación y las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero. Debido a su excelente impacto ambiental, la aceptación pública del nuevo vector energético dependería, a priori, del control de los riesgos asociados su manipulación y almacenamiento. Entre estos, la existencia de un innegable riesgo de explosión aparece como el principal inconveniente de este combustible alternativo. Esta tesis investiga la modelización numérica de explosiones en grandes volúmenes, centrándose en la simulación de la combustión turbulenta en grandes dominios de cálculo en los que la resolución que es alcanzable está fuertemente limitada. En la introducción, se aborda una descripción general de los procesos de explosión. Se concluye que las restricciones en la resolución de los cálculos hacen necesario el modelado de los procesos de turbulencia y de combustión. Posteriormente, se realiza una revisión crítica de las metodologías disponibles tanto para turbulencia como para combustión, que se lleva a cabo señalando las fortalezas, deficiencias e idoneidad de cada una de las metodologías. Como conclusión de esta investigación, se obtiene que la única estrategia viable para el modelado de la combustión, teniendo en cuenta las limitaciones existentes, es la utilización de una expresión que describa la velocidad de combustión turbulenta en función de distintos parámetros. Este tipo de modelos se denominan Modelos de velocidad de llama turbulenta y permiten cerrar una ecuación de balance para la variable de progreso de combustión. Como conclusión también se ha obtenido, que la solución más adecuada para la simulación de la turbulencia es la utilización de diferentes metodologías para la simulación de la turbulencia, LES o RANS, en función de la geometría y de las restricciones en la resolución de cada problema particular. Sobre la base de estos hallazgos, el crea de un modelo de combustión en el marco de los modelos de velocidad de la llama turbulenta. La metodología propuesta es capaz de superar las deficiencias existentes en los modelos disponibles para aquellos problemas en los que se precisa realizar cálculos con una resolución moderada o baja. Particularmente, el modelo utiliza un algoritmo heurístico para impedir el crecimiento del espesor de la llama, una deficiencia que lastraba el célebre modelo de Zimont. Bajo este enfoque, el énfasis del análisis se centra en la determinación de la velocidad de combustión, tanto laminar como turbulenta. La velocidad de combustión laminar se determina a través de una nueva formulación capaz de tener en cuenta la influencia simultánea en la velocidad de combustión laminar de la relación de equivalencia, la temperatura, la presión y la dilución con vapor de agua. La formulación obtenida es válida para un dominio de temperaturas, presiones y dilución con vapor de agua más extenso de cualquiera de las formulaciones previamente disponibles. Por otra parte, el cálculo de la velocidad de combustión turbulenta puede ser abordado mediante el uso de correlaciones que permiten el la determinación de esta magnitud en función de distintos parámetros. Con el objetivo de seleccionar la formulación más adecuada, se ha realizado una comparación entre los resultados obtenidos con diversas expresiones y los resultados obtenidos en los experimentos. Se concluye que la ecuación debida a Schmidt es la más adecuada teniendo en cuenta las condiciones del estudio. A continuación, se analiza la importancia de las inestabilidades de la llama en la propagación de los frentes de combustión. Su relevancia resulta significativa para mezclas pobres en combustible en las que la intensidad de la turbulencia permanece moderada. Estas condiciones son importantes dado que son habituales en los accidentes que ocurren en las centrales nucleares. Por ello, se lleva a cabo la creación de un modelo que permita estimar el efecto de las inestabilidades, y en concreto de la inestabilidad acústica-paramétrica, en la velocidad de propagación de llama. El modelado incluye la derivación matemática de la formulación heurística de Bauwebs et al. para el cálculo de la incremento de la velocidad de combustión debido a las inestabilidades de la llama, así como el análisis de la estabilidad de las llamas con respecto a una perturbación cíclica. Por último, los resultados se combinan para concluir el modelado de la inestabilidad acústica-paramétrica. Tras finalizar esta fase, la investigación se centro en la aplicación del modelo desarrollado en varios problemas de importancia para la seguridad industrial y el posterior análisis de los resultados y la comparación de los mismos con los datos experimentales correspondientes. Concretamente, se abordo la simulación de explosiones en túneles y en contenedores, con y sin gradiente de concentración y ventilación. Como resultados generales, se logra validar el modelo confirmando su idoneidad para estos problemas. Como última tarea, se ha realizado un analisis en profundidad de la catástrofe de Fukushima-Daiichi. El objetivo del análisis es determinar la cantidad de hidrógeno que explotó en el reactor número uno, en contraste con los otros estudios sobre el tema que se han centrado en la determinación de la cantidad de hidrógeno generado durante el accidente. Como resultado de la investigación, se determinó que la cantidad más probable de hidrogeno que fue consumida durante la explosión fue de 130 kg. Es un hecho notable el que la combustión de una relativamente pequeña cantidad de hidrogeno pueda causar un daño tan significativo. Esta es una muestra de la importancia de este tipo de investigaciones. Las ramas de la industria para las que el modelo desarrollado será de interés abarca la totalidad de la futura economía de hidrógeno (pilas de combustible, vehículos, almacenamiento energético, etc) con un impacto especial en los sectores del transporte y la energía nuclear, tanto para las tecnologías de fisión y fusión. ABSTRACT The exhaustion, absolute absence or simply the uncertainty on the amount of the reserves of fossil fuels sources added to the variability of their prices and the increasing instability and difficulties on the supply chain are strong incentives for the development of alternative energy sources and carriers. The attractiveness of hydrogen in a context that additionally comprehends concerns on pollution and emissions is very high. Due to its excellent environmental impact, the public acceptance of the new energetic vector will depend on the risk associated to its handling and storage. Fromthese, the danger of a severe explosion appears as the major drawback of this alternative fuel. This thesis investigates the numerical modeling of large scale explosions, focusing on the simulation of turbulent combustion in large domains where the resolution achievable is forcefully limited. In the introduction, a general description of explosion process is undertaken. It is concluded that the restrictions of resolution makes necessary the modeling of the turbulence and combustion processes. Subsequently, a critical review of the available methodologies for both turbulence and combustion is carried out pointing out their strengths and deficiencies. As a conclusion of this investigation, it appears clear that the only viable methodology for combustion modeling is the utilization of an expression for the turbulent burning velocity to close a balance equation for the combustion progress variable, a model of the Turbulent flame velocity kind. Also, that depending on the particular resolution restriction of each problem and on its geometry the utilization of different simulation methodologies, LES or RANS, is the most adequate solution for modeling the turbulence. Based on these findings, the candidate undertakes the creation of a combustion model in the framework of turbulent flame speed methodology which is able to overcome the deficiencies of the available ones for low resolution problems. Particularly, the model utilizes a heuristic algorithm to maintain the thickness of the flame brush under control, a serious deficiency of the Zimont model. Under the approach utilized by the candidate, the emphasis of the analysis lays on the accurate determination of the burning velocity, both laminar and turbulent. On one side, the laminar burning velocity is determined through a newly developed correlation which is able to describe the simultaneous influence of the equivalence ratio, temperature, steam dilution and pressure on the laminar burning velocity. The formulation obtained is valid for a larger domain of temperature, steam dilution and pressure than any of the previously available formulations. On the other side, a certain number of turbulent burning velocity correlations are available in the literature. For the selection of the most suitable, they have been compared with experiments and ranked, with the outcome that the formulation due to Schmidt was the most adequate for the conditions studied. Subsequently, the role of the flame instabilities on the development of explosions is assessed. Their significance appears to be of importance for lean mixtures in which the turbulence intensity remains moderate. These are important conditions which are typical for accidents on Nuclear Power Plants. Therefore, the creation of a model to account for the instabilities, and concretely, the acoustic parametric instability is undertaken. This encloses the mathematical derivation of the heuristic formulation of Bauwebs et al. for the calculation of the burning velocity enhancement due to flame instabilities as well as the analysis of the stability of flames with respect to a cyclic velocity perturbation. The results are combined to build a model of the acoustic-parametric instability. The following task in this research has been to apply the model developed to several problems significant for the industrial safety and the subsequent analysis of the results and comparison with the corresponding experimental data was performed. As a part of such task simulations of explosions in a tunnel and explosions in large containers, with and without gradient of concentration and venting have been carried out. As a general outcome, the validation of the model is achieved, confirming its suitability for the problems addressed. As a last and final undertaking, a thorough study of the Fukushima-Daiichi catastrophe has been carried out. The analysis performed aims at the determination of the amount of hydrogen participating on the explosion that happened in the reactor one, in contrast with other analysis centered on the amount of hydrogen generated during the accident. As an outcome of the research, it was determined that the most probable amount of hydrogen exploding during the catastrophe was 130 kg. It is remarkable that the combustion of such a small quantity of material can cause tremendous damage. This is an indication of the importance of these types of investigations. The industrial branches that can benefit from the applications of the model developed in this thesis include the whole future hydrogen economy, as well as nuclear safety both in fusion and fission technology.

Flamelet structures in spray ignition

In typical liquid-fueled burners the fuel is injected as a high-velocity liquid jet that breaks up to form the spray. The initial heating and vaporization of the liquid fuel rely on the relatively large temperatures of the sourrounding gas, which may include hot combustion products and preheated air. The heat exchange between the liquid and the gas phases is enhanced by droplet dispersion arising from the turbulent motion. Chemical reaction takes place once molecular mixing between the fuel vapor and the oxidizer has occurred in mixing layers separating the spray flow from the hot air stream. Since in most applications the injection velocities are much larger than the premixed-flame propagation velocity, combustion stabilization relies on autoignition of the fuel-oxygen mixture, with the combustion stand-off distance being controlled by the interaction of turbulent transport, droplet heating and vaporization, and gas-phase chemical reactions. In this study, conditions are identified under which analyses of laminar flamelets canshed light on aspects of turbulent spray ignition. This study extends earlier fundamental work by Liñan & Crespo (1976) on ignition in gaseous mixing layers to ignition of sprays. Studies of laminar mixing layers have been found to be instrumental in developing un-derstanding of turbulent combustion (Peters 2000), including the ignition of turbulent gaseous diffusion flames (Mastorakos 2009). For the spray problem at hand, the configuration selected, shown in Figure 1, involves a coflow mixing layer formed between a stream of hot air moving at velocity UA and a monodisperse spray moving at velocity USUA. The boundary-layer approximation will be used below to describe the resulting sl ender flow, which exhibits different igniting behaviors depending on the characteristics of t he fuel. In this approximation, consideration of the case U A = U S enables laminar ignition distances to be related to ignition times of unstrained spray flamelets, thereby pro viding quantitative information of direct applicability in regions of low scala r dissipation-rate in turbulent reactive flows (see the discussion in pp. 181–186 of Peters (2000)) . This report is organized as follows. Effects of droplet dispersion dynamics on ignition of sprays in turbulent mixing layers are discussed in Section 2. The formulation f or ignition in laminar mixing layers is outlined in Sections 3 and 4. The results are presented in Section 5. In Section 6, the mixture-fraction field and associated scalar dissipat ion rates for spray ignition are discussed. Finally, some brief conclusions are drawn in Section 7.

Flammability conditions for ultra-lean hydrogen premixed combustion based on flame-ball analyses

It has been reasoned that the structures of strongly cellular flames in very lean mixtures approach an array of flame balls, each burning as if it were isolated, thereby indicating a connection between the critical conditions required for existence of steady flame balls and those necessary for occurrence of self-sustained premixed combustion. This is the starting assumption of the present study, in which structures of near-limit steady sphericosym-metrical flame balls are investigated with the objective of providing analytic expressions for critical combustion conditions in ultra-lean hydrogen-oxygen mixtures diluted with N2 and water vapor. If attention were restricted to planar premixed flames, then the lean-limit mole fraction of H2 would be found to be roughly ten percent, more than twice the observed flammability limits, thereby emphasizing the relevance of the flame-ball phenomena. Numerical integrations using detailed models for chemistry and radiation show that a onestep chemical-kinetic reduced mechanism based on steady-state assumptions for all chemical intermediates, together with a simple, optically thin approximation for water-vapor radiation, can be used to compute near-limit fuel-lean flame balls with excellent accuracy. The previously developed one-step reaction rate includes a crossover temperature that determines in the first approximation a chemical-kinetic lean limit below which combustión cannot occur, with critical conditions achieved when the diffusion-controlled radiation-free peak temperature, computed with account taken of hydrogen Soret diffusion, is equal to the crossover temperature. First-order corrections are found by activation-energy asymptotics in a solution that involves a near-field radiation-free zone surrounding a spherical flame sheet, together with a far-field radiation-conduction balance for the temperature profile. Different scalings are found depending on whether or not the surrounding atmosphere contains wáter vapor, leading to different analytic expressions for the critical conditions for flame-ball existence, which give results in very good agreement with those obtained by detailed numerical computations.

On the formation of nitrogen oxides in the combustion processes of hydrogen in air

A research programme is being carried out at the Institute Nacional de Tecnica Aeroespacial of Spain, on several aspects of the formation of nitrogen oxides in continuous flow combustion systems, considering hydrogen and hydrocarbons as fuels. The research programme is fundamentally oriented on the basic aspects of the problem, although it also includes the study of the influence on the formation process of several operational and design variables of the combusters, such as type of fuels, fuel/air ratio, degree of mixing in premixed type flames, existence of droplets as compared with homogeneous combustion.This problem of nitrogen oxides formation is receiving lately great attention, specially in connection with automobile reciprocating engines and aircraft gas turbines. This is due to the fact of the increasing frequency and intensity of photochemical hazes or smog, typical of urban areas submitted to strong solar radiation, which are originated by the action on organic compounds of the oxidants resulting from the photochemical decomposition of nitrogen dioxide N02. In the combustion process almost all nitrogen oxides are in form of NO. This nitric oxide reacts with the oxygen of the air and forms N02, this reaction only taking place in or near the exhaust of tne motors, since the N0-02 reaction becomes frozen for the concentration existing in the atmosphere.

Dynamics of thermal ignition of spray flames in mixing layers

Conditions are identified under which analyses of laminar mixing layers can shed light on aspects of turbulent spray combustion. With this in mind, laminar spray-combustion models are formulated for both non-premixed and partially premixed systems. The laminar mixing layer separating a hot-air stream from a monodisperse spray carried by either an inert gas or air is investigated numerically and analytically in an effort to increase understanding of the ignition process leading to stabilization of high-speed spray combustion. The problem is formulated in an Eulerian framework, with the conservation equations written in the boundary-layer approximation and with a one-step Arrhenius model adopted for the chemistry description. The numerical integrations unveil two different types of ignition behaviour depending on the fuel availability in the reaction kernel, which in turn depends on the rates of droplet vaporization and fuel-vapour diffusion. When sufficient fuel is available near the hot boundary, as occurs when the thermochemical properties of heptane are employed for the fuel in the integrations, combustion is established through a precipitous temperature increase at a well-defined thermal-runaway location, a phenomenon that is amenable to a theoretical analysis based on activation-energy asymptotics, presented here, following earlier ideas developed in describing unsteady gaseous ignition in mixing layers. By way of contrast, when the amount of fuel vapour reaching the hot boundary is small, as is observed in the computations employing the thermochemical properties of methanol, the incipient chemical reaction gives rise to a slowly developing lean deflagration that consumes the available fuel as it propagates across the mixing layer towards the spray. The flame structure that develops downstream from the ignition point depends on the fuel considered and also on the spray carrier gas, with fuel sprays carried by air displaying either a lean deflagration bounding a region of distributed reaction or a distinct double-flame structure with a rich premixed flame on the spray side and a diffusion flame on the air side. Results are calculated for the distributions of mixture fraction and scalar dissipation rate across the mixing layer that reveal complexities that serve to identify differences between spray-flamelet and gaseous-flamelet problems.

Numerical simulation of the upward propagation of a flame in a vertical tube filled with a very lean mixture.

Upwardpropagation of a premixed flame in averticaltubefilled with a very leanmixture is simulated numerically using a single irreversible Arrhenius reaction model with infinitely high activation energy. In the absence of heat losses and preferential diffusion effects, a curved flame with stationary shape and velocity close to those of an open bubble ascending in the same tube is found for values of the fuel mass fraction above a certain minimum that increases with the radius of the tube, while the numerical computations cease to converge to a stationary solution below this minimum mass fraction. The vortical flow of the gas behind the flame and in its transport region is described for tubes of different radii. It is argued that this flow may become unstable when the fuel mass fraction is decreased, and that this instability, together with the flame stretch due to the strong curvature of the flame tip in narrow tubes, may be responsible for the minimum fuel mass fraction. Radiation losses and a Lewis number of the fuel slightly above unity decrease the final combustion temperature at the flame tip and increase the minimum fuel mass fraction, while a Lewis number slightly below unity has the opposite effect.

Clean Coal Technologies Scenario and Evaluation of Present CO2 Dwindling Initiatives to Approach Zero Emission Power Stations By Coal Combustion. Deployment Situation and Evaluation Study

In the present uncertain global context of reaching an equal social stability and steady thriving economy, power demand expected to grow and global electricity generation could nearly double from 2005 to 2030. Fossil fuels will remain a significant contribution on this energy mix up to 2050, with an expected part of around 70% of global and ca. 60% of European electricity generation. Coal will remain a key player. Hence, a direct effect on the considered CO2 emissions business-as-usual scenario is expected, forecasting three times the present CO2 concentration values up to 1,200ppm by the end of this century. Kyoto protocol was the first approach to take global responsibility onto CO2 emissions monitoring and cap targets by 2012 with reference to 1990. Some of principal CO2emitters did not ratify the reduction targets. Although USA and China spur are taking its own actions and parallel reduction measures. More efficient combustion processes comprising less fuel consuming, a significant contribution from the electricity generation sector to a CO2 dwindling concentration levels, might not be sufficient. Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technologies have started to gain more importance from the beginning of the decade, with research and funds coming out to drive its come in useful. After first researching projects and initial scale testing, three principal capture processes came out available today with first figures showing up to 90% CO2 removal by its standard applications in coal fired power stations. Regarding last part of CO2 reduction chain, two options could be considered worthy, reusing (EOR & EGR) and storage. The study evaluates the state of the CO2 capture technology development, availability and investment cost of the different technologies, with few operation cost analysis possible at the time. Main findings and the abatement potential for coal applications are presented. DOE, NETL, MIT, European universities and research institutions, key technology enterprises and utilities, and key technology suppliers are the main sources of this study. A vision of the technology deployment is presented.

Dynamic analysis of road vehicle-bridge systems under turbulent wind by means of Finite Element Models

When an automobile passes over a bridge dynamic effects are produced in vehicle and structure. In addition, the bridge itself moves when exposed to the wind inducing dynamic effects on the vehicle that have to be considered. The main objective of this work is to understand the influence of the different parameters concerning the vehicle, the bridge, the road roughness or the wind in the comfort and safety of the vehicles when crossing bridges. Non linear finite element models are used for structures and multibody dynamic models are employed for vehicles. The interaction between the vehicle and the bridge is considered by contact methods. Road roughness is described by the power spectral density (PSD) proposed by the ISO 8608. To consider that the profiles under right and left wheels are different but not independent, the hypotheses of homogeneity and isotropy are assumed. To generate the wind velocity history along the road the Sandia method is employed. The global problem is solved by means of the finite element method. First the methodology for modelling the interaction is verified in a benchmark. Following, the case of a vehicle running along a rigid road and subjected to the action of the turbulent wind is analyzed and the road roughness is incorporated in a following step. Finally the flexibility of the bridge is added to the model by making the vehicle run over the structure. The application of this methodology will allow to understand the influence of the different parameters in the comfort and safety of road vehicles crossing wind exposed bridges. Those results will help to recommend measures to make the traffic over bridges more reliable without affecting the structural integrity of the viaduct

Time Evolution of the Fractal Dimension in Turbulent Plumes

Turbulent mixing is a very important issue in the study of geophysical phenomena because most fluxes arising in geophysics fluids are turbulent. We study turbulent mixing due to convection using a laboratory experimental model with two miscible fluids of different density with an initial top heavy density distribution. The fluids that form the initial unstable stratification are miscible and the turbulence will produce molecular mixing. The denser fluid comes into the lighter fluid layer and it generates several forced plumes which are gravitationally unstable. As the turbulent plumes develop, the denser fluid comes into contact with the lighter fluid layer and the mixing process grows. Their development is caused by the lateral interaction between these plumes at the complex fractal surface between the dense and light fluids

AFBC of coal with tyre rubber. Influence of the co-combustion variables on the mineral matter of solid by-products and on Zn lixiviation

The study focuses on the generation and distribution of mineral species in fly and bottom ashes. These were formed during a fluidised co-combustion of a fossil fuel (coal) and a non-fossil fuel (tyre rubber) in a small fluidised bed combustor (7cm x 70cm). The pilot plant had continuous fuel feed using varying ratios of coal and rubber. The study also focuses on the lixiviation behaviour of metallic elements with the assessement of zinc recovering.

Assessment of self-combustion risks for solid fuels (POSTER)

Every solid fuel has a tendency to react with oxygen, a fact that constitutes the basis of their ability to oxidation and energy intake for combustion, but that poses a risk when it occurs in an uncontrolled manner. When the slow oxidation phenomenon produces more heat than can be evacuated, the result is a heating process, which promotes combustion reactions, primarily fuel oxidation, and a progressive increase in temperature.

PAH occurrence during combustion of biodiesel from various feedstocks

PAHs are pollutants of concern since they are known carcinogenic compounds. Their occurrence is mainly related to combustion or pyrolysis of organic matter such as fossil fuels. In the current scenario where biofuels are growingly important, it is also necessary to characterize PAH emissions due to their combustion. There are a number of works concerning PAH emissions from biodiesel combustion in Diesel engines, however, there are few regarding the difference between them depending on the feedstock and type of alcohol used in the transesterification. The authors have processed and characterized biodiesel from several feedstocks (Le. tallow, palm, rapeseed, soy-bean, coconut, peanut and linseed oils) to obtain FAME and FAEE and they have developed a method to measure the PAHs originated during their combustion in a bomb calorimeter. The tests have been carried out under different oxygen pressure conditions, and samples have been c1eaned from the bomb after each one of these tests. The samples have been prepared for GC-MS analysis, where PAH quantities among some other combustion products have been assessed. This work shows statistical relations obtained between the measured amounts of 18 PAHs of concern and the composition (oil and type of alcohol) used to obtain the biodiesel, and also the oxygen pressure during combustion.

Numerical characterization of particle dispersion in the turbulent recirculation zones of sudden expansion pipe flows

The dispersion of solid particles in the turbulent recirculation zones of sudden expansion pipes can be characterized by different Stokes numbers and mean drift parameter and its study is important because this kind of flows appears in many technological applications.

Co2 capture in power plants-using the oxy-combustion principle

In the C02 capture from power generation, the energy penalties for the capture are one of the main challenges. Nowadays, the post-combustion methods have energy penalties 10wer than the oxy combustion and pre-combustion technologies. One of the main disadvantages of the post combustion method is the fact that the capture ofC02at atmospheric pressure requires quite big equipment for the high flow rates of flue gas, and the 10w partial pressure of the CO2generates an important 10ss of energy. The A1lam cyc1e presented for NETPOWER gives high efficiencies in the power production and 10w energy penalties. A simulation of this cyc1e is made together with a simulation of power plants with pre-combustion and post-combustion capture and without capture for natural gas and forcoa1. The simulations give 10wer efficiencies than the proposed for NETPOWER For natural gas the efficiency is 52% instead of the 59% presented, and 33% instead of51% in the case of using coal as fuel. Are brought to light problems in the CO2compressor due the high flow ofC02that is compressed unti1300 bar to be recyc1ed into the combustor.

Laminar-turbulent transition induced by a discrete roughness element in a supersonic boundary layer

The linear instability and breakdown to turbulence induced by an isolated roughness element in a boundary layer at Mach 2:5, over an isothermal flat plate with laminar adiabatic wall temperature, have been analysed by means of direct numerical simulations, aided by spatial BiGlobal and three-dimensional parabolized (PSE-3D) stability analyses. It is important to understand transition in this flow regime since the process can be slower than in incompressible flow and is crucial to prediction of local heat loads on next-generation flight vehicles. The results show that the roughness element, with a height of the order of the boundary layer displacement thickness, generates a highly unstable wake, which is composed of a low-velocity streak surrounded by a three-dimensional high-shear layer and is able to sustain the rapid growth of a number of instability modes. The most unstable of these modes are associated with varicose or sinuous deformations of the low-velocity streak; they are a consequence of the instability developing in the three-dimensional shear layer as a whole (the varicose mode) or in the lateral shear layers (the sinuous mode). The most unstable wake mode is of the varicose type and grows on average 17% faster tan the most unstable sinuous mode and 30 times faster than the most unstable boundary layer mode occurring in the absence of a roughness element. Due to the high growthrates registered in the presence of the roughness element, an amplification factor of N D 9 is reached within 50 roughness heights from the roughness trailing edge. The independently performed Navier–Stokes, spatial BiGlobal and PSE-3D stability results are in excellent agreement with each other, validating the use of simplified theories for roughness-induced transition involving wake instabilities. Following the linear stages of the laminar–turbulent transition process, the roll-up of the three-dimensional shear layer leads to the formation of a wedge of turbulence, which spreads laterally at a rate similar to that observed in the case of compressible turbulent spots for the same Mach number.