Estimate of the total ice volume of Svalbard glaciers and their potential contribution to sea-level rise = Estimación del volumen de hielo de Svalbard y su contribución potencial a la subida del nivel del mar

El objetivo final de las investigaciones recogidas en esta tesis doctoral es la estimación del volumen de hielo total de los ms de 1600 glaciares de Svalbard, en el Ártico, y, con ello, su contribución potencial a la subida del nivel medio del mar en un escenario de calentamiento global. Los cálculos más exactos del volumen de un glaciar se efectúan a partir de medidas del espesor de hielo obtenidas con georradar. Sin embargo, estas medidas no son viables para conjuntos grandes de glaciares, debido al coste, dificultades logísticas y tiempo requerido por ellas, especialmente en las regiones polares o de montaña. Frente a ello, la determinación de áreas de glaciares a partir de imágenes de satélite sí es viable a escalas global y regional, por lo que las relaciones de escala volumen-área constituyen el mecanismo más adecuado para las estimaciones de volúmenes globales y regionales, como las realizadas para Svalbard en esta tesis. Como parte del trabajo de tesis, hemos elaborado un inventario de los glaciares de Svalbard en los que se han efectuado radioecosondeos, y hemos realizado los cálculos del volumen de hielo de más de 80 cuencas glaciares de Svalbard a partir de datos de georradar. Estos volúmenes han sido utilizados para calibrar las relaciones volumen-área desarrolladas en la tesis. Los datos de georradar han sido obtenidos en diversas campañas llevadas a cabo por grupos de investigación internacionales, gran parte de ellas lideradas por el Grupo de Simulación Numérica en Ciencias e Ingeniería de la Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, del que forman parte la doctoranda y los directores de tesis. Además, se ha desarrollado una metodología para la estimación del error en el cálculo de volumen, que aporta una novedosa técnica de cálculo del error de interpolación para conjuntos de datos del tipo de los obtenidos con perfiles de georradar, que presentan distribuciones espaciales con unos patrones muy característicos pero con una densidad de datos muy irregular. Hemos obtenido en este trabajo de tesis relaciones de escala específicas para los glaciares de Svalbard, explorando la sensibilidad de los parámetros a diferentes morfologías glaciares, e incorporando nuevas variables. En particular, hemos efectuado experimentos orientados a verificar si las relaciones de escala obtenidas caracterizando los glaciares individuales por su tamaño, pendiente o forma implican diferencias significativas en el volumen total estimado para los glaciares de Svalbard, y si esta partición implica algún patrón significativo en los parámetros de las relaciones de escala. Nuestros resultados indican que, para un valor constante del factor multiplicativo de la relacin de escala, el exponente que afecta al área en la relación volumen-área decrece según aumentan la pendiente y el factor de forma, mientras que las clasificaciones basadas en tamaño no muestran un patrón significativo. Esto significa que los glaciares con mayores pendientes y de tipo circo son menos sensibles a los cambios de área. Además, los volúmenes de la población total de los glaciares de Svalbard calculados con fraccionamiento en grupos por tamaño y pendiente son un 1-4% menores que los obtenidas usando la totalidad de glaciares sin fraccionamiento en grupos, mientras que los volúmenes calculados fraccionando por forma son un 3-5% mayores. También realizamos experimentos multivariable para obtener estimaciones óptimas del volumen total mediante una combinación de distintos predictores. Nuestros resultados muestran que un modelo potencial simple volumen-área explica el 98.6% de la varianza. Sólo el predictor longitud del glaciar proporciona significación estadística cuando se usa además del área del glaciar, aunque el coeficiente de determinación disminuye en comparación con el modelo más simple V-A. El predictor intervalo de altitud no proporciona información adicional cuando se usa además del área del glaciar. Nuestras estimaciones del volumen de la totalidad de glaciares de Svalbard usando las diferentes relaciones de escala obtenidas en esta tesis oscilan entre 6890 y 8106 km3, con errores relativos del orden de 6.6-8.1%. El valor medio de nuestras estimaciones, que puede ser considerado como nuestra mejor estimación del volumen, es de 7.504 km3. En términos de equivalente en nivel del mar (SLE), nuestras estimaciones corresponden a una subida potencial del nivel del mar de 17-20 mm SLE, promediando 19_2 mm SLE, donde el error corresponde al error en volumen antes indicado. En comparación, las estimaciones usando las relaciones V-A de otros autores son de 13-26 mm SLE, promediando 20 _ 2 mm SLE, donde el error representa la desviación estándar de las distintas estimaciones. ABSTRACT The final aim of the research involved in this doctoral thesis is the estimation of the total ice volume of the more than 1600 glaciers of Svalbard, in the Arctic region, and thus their potential contribution to sea-level rise under a global warming scenario. The most accurate calculations of glacier volumes are those based on ice-thicknesses measured by groundpenetrating radar (GPR). However, such measurements are not viable for very large sets of glaciers, due to their cost, logistic difficulties and time requirements, especially in polar or mountain regions. On the contrary, the calculation of glacier areas from satellite images is perfectly viable at global and regional scales, so the volume-area scaling relationships are the most useful tool to determine glacier volumes at global and regional scales, as done for Svalbard in this PhD thesis. As part of the PhD work, we have compiled an inventory of the radio-echo sounded glaciers in Svalbard, and we have performed the volume calculations for more than 80 glacier basins in Svalbard from GPR data. These volumes have been used to calibrate the volume-area relationships derived in this dissertation. Such GPR data have been obtained during fieldwork campaigns carried out by international teams, often lead by the Group of Numerical Simulation in Science and Engineering of the Technical University of Madrid, to which the PhD candidate and her supervisors belong. Furthermore, we have developed a methodology to estimate the error in the volume calculation, which includes a novel technique to calculate the interpolation error for data sets of the type produced by GPR profiling, which show very characteristic data distribution patterns but with very irregular data density. We have derived in this dissertation scaling relationships specific for Svalbard glaciers, exploring the sensitivity of the scaling parameters to different glacier morphologies and adding new variables. In particular, we did experiments aimed to verify whether scaling relationships obtained through characterization of individual glacier shape, slope and size imply significant differences in the estimated volume of the total population of Svalbard glaciers, and whether this partitioning implies any noticeable pattern in the scaling relationship parameters. Our results indicate that, for a fixed value of the factor in the scaling relationship, the exponent of the area in the volume-area relationship decreases as slope and shape increase, whereas size-based classifications do not reveal any clear trend. This means that steep slopes and cirque-type glaciers are less sensitive to changes in glacier area. Moreover, the volumes of the total population of Svalbard glaciers calculated according to partitioning in subgroups by size and slope are smaller (by 1-4%) than that obtained considering all glaciers without partitioning into subgroups, whereas the volumes calculated according to partitioning in subgroups by shape are 3-5% larger. We also did multivariate experiments attempting to optimally predict the volume of Svalbard glaciers from a combination of different predictors. Our results show that a simple power-type V-A model explains 98.6% of the variance. Only the predictor glacier length provides statistical significance when used in addition to the predictor glacier area, though the coefficient of determination decreases as compared with the simpler V-A model. The predictor elevation range did not provide any additional information when used in addition to glacier area. Our estimates of the volume of the entire population of Svalbard glaciers using the different scaling relationships that we have derived along this thesis range within 6890-8106 km3, with estimated relative errors in total volume of the order of 6.6-8.1% The average value of all of our estimates, which could be used as a best estimate for the volume, is 7,504 km3. In terms of sea-level equivalent (SLE), our volume estimates correspond to a potential contribution to sea-level rise within 17-20 mm SLE, averaging 19 _ 2 mm SLE, where the quoted error corresponds to our estimated relative error in volume. For comparison, the estimates using the V-A scaling relations found in the literature range within 13-26 mm SLE, averaging 20 _ 2 mm SLE, where the quoted error represents the standard deviation of the different estimates.

Estimate of the total volume of Svalbard glaciers, and their potential contribution to sea-level rise, using new regionally based scaling relationships

We present a set of new volume scaling relationships specific to Svalbard glaciers, derived from a sample of 60 volume–area pairs. Glacier volumes are computed from ground-penetrating radar (GPR)-retrieved ice thickness measurements, which have been compiled from different sources for this study. The most precise scaling models, in terms of lowest cross-validation errors, are obtained using a multivariate approach where, in addition to glacier area, glacier length and elevation range are also used as predictors. Using this multivariate scaling approach, together with the Randolph Glacier Inventory V3.2 for Svalbard and Jan Mayen, we obtain a regional volume estimate of 6700 ± 835 km3, or 17 ± 2 mm of sea-level equivalent (SLE). This result lies in the mid- to low range of recently published estimates, which show values as varied as 13 and 24 mm SLE. We assess the sensitivity of the scaling exponents to glacier characteristics such as size, aspect ratio and average slope, and find that the volume of steep-slope and cirque-type glaciers is not very sensitive to changes in glacier area.

The potential of organic fertilizers and water management to reduce N2O emissions in Mediterranean climate cropping systems. A review.

Environmental problems related to the use of synthetic fertilizers and to organic waste management have led to increased interest in the use of organic materials as an alternative source of nutrients for crops, but this is also associated with N2O emissions. There has been an increasing amount of research into the effects of using different types of fertilization on N2O emissions under Mediterranean climatic conditions, but the findings have sometimes been rather contradictory. Available information also suggests that water management could exert a high influence on N2O emissions. In this context, we have reviewed the current scientific knowledge, including an analysis of the effect of fertilizer type and water management on direct N2O emissions. A meta-analysis of compliant reviewed experiments revealed significantly lower N2O emissions for organic as opposed to synthetic fertilizers (23% reduction). When organic materials were segregated in solid and liquid, only solid organic fertilizer emissions were significantly lower than those of synthetic fertilizers (28% reduction in cumulative emissions). The EF is similar to the IPCC factor in conventionally irrigated systems (0.98% N2O-N N applied−1), but one order of magnitude lower in rainfed systems (0.08%). Drip irrigation produces intermediate emission levels (0.66%). Differences are driven by Mediterranean agro-climatic characteristics, which include low soil organic matter (SOM) content and a distinctive rainfall and temperature pattern. Interactions between environmental and management factors and the microbial processes involved in N2O emissions are discussed in detail. Indirect emissions have not been fully accounted for, but when organic fertilizers are applied at similar N rates to synthetic fertilizers, they generally make smaller contributions to the leached NO3− pool. The most promising practices for reducing N2O through organic fertilization include: (i) minimizing water applications; (ii) minimizing bare soil; (iii) improving waste management; and (iv) tightening N cycling through N immobilization. The mitigation potential may be limited by: (i) residual effect; (ii) the long-term effects of fertilizers on SOM; (iii) lower yield-scaled performance; and (iv) total N availability from organic sources. Knowledge gaps identified in the review included: (i) insufficient sampling periods; (ii) high background emissions; (iii) the need to provide N2O EF and yield-scaled EF; (iv) the need for more research on specific cropping systems; and (v) the need for full GHG balances. In conclusion, the available information suggests a potential of organic fertilizers and water-saving practices to mitigate N2O emissions under Mediterranean climatic conditions, although further research is needed before it can be regarded as fully proven, understood and developed.

A Schwarz lemma for Kahler affine metrics and the canonical potential of a proper convex cone

This is an account of some aspects of the geometry of Kahler affine metrics based on considering them as smooth metric measure spaces and applying the comparison geometry of Bakry-Emery Ricci tensors. Such techniques yield a version for Kahler affine metrics of Yau s Schwarz lemma for volume forms. By a theorem of Cheng and Yau, there is a canonical Kahler affine Einstein metric on a proper convex domain, and the Schwarz lemma gives a direct proof of its uniqueness up to homothety. The potential for this metric is a function canonically associated to the cone, characterized by the property that its level sets are hyperbolic affine spheres foliating the cone. It is shown that for an n -dimensional cone, a rescaling of the canonical potential is an n -normal barrier function in the sense of interior point methods for conic programming. It is explained also how to construct from the canonical potential Monge-Ampère metrics of both Riemannian and Lorentzian signatures, and a mean curvature zero conical Lagrangian submanifold of the flat para-Kahler space.

Ecotoxicology of pesticides on natural enemies of olive groves. Potential of ecdysone agonists for controlling Bactrocera oleae (Rossi) (Diptera: Tephritidae)

Pesticide applications are still one of the most common control methods against the main olive grove pests and diseases: the olive fruit fly, Bactrocera oleae (Rossi), the olive moth, Prays oleae (Bernard), the black scale, Saissetia oleae (Olivier), and the olive leaf spot, caused by the fungus Spilocaea oleagina Fries. However, and because the new pesticide legislation is aimed at an integrated pest and disease management, it is still important to evaluate and to know the ecotoxicology of pesticides on the natural enemies of the different agrosystems. A part of this work has been focusses on evaluating the direct and indirect effects of kaolin particle films and two copper-based products (Bordeaux mixture and copper oxychloride) through different laboratory, extended laboratory and semi-field experiments. Two natural enemies have been chosen: Psyttalia concolor (Szèpligeti), a parasitoid of the olive fruit fly, and Chilocorus nigritus (F.), predator of Diaspididae. This predator has been used instead of C. bipustulatus (L.), which is the species found in olive orchards. Kaolin mainly acts as a repellent of insects and/or as an oviposition deterrent. It is used in olive groves to control the olive fruit fly and the olive moth. Copper is applied against fungal and bacterial diseases. In olive groves it is used against the olive leaf spot and other diseases. No statistical differences were found in any of the experiments performed, compared to the controls, except when the oral toxicity of the products was evaluated on P. concolor females. In this case, kaolin and copper oxychloride caused a higher mortality 72 hours after the treatments, and both kaolin and the two copper formulations decreased females’ life span. Reproductive parameters were only negatively affected when kaolin was ingested. Apart from these experiments, due to the uncommon mode of action of kaolin, two extra experiments were carried out: a dual choice and a no-choice experiment. In this case, both P. concolor females and C. nigritus adults showed a clear preference for the untreated surfaces when they had the possibility of choosing between a treated surface and an untreated one. When there was no choice, no statistical differences were found between the treatments and the controls. Furthermore, the efficacy and the selectivity of three insect growth regulators (methoxyfenozide, tebufenozide and RH-5849) on B. oleae and P. concolor, respectively, have also been evaluated. In addition to laboratory experiments to evaluate the toxicity of the insecticides, also molecular approaches were used. RNA of both insects was isolated. cDNA was subsequently synthesized and the complete sequences of the ligand biding domain (LBD) of the ecdysone receptor of each insect were then determined. Afterwards the three dimensional structures of both LBDs were constructed. Finally, the docking of the insecticide molecules in the cavity delineated by the 12 α-helix that composed the LBD was performed. Both toxicity assays and molecular docking approaches showed that either methoxyfenozide or tebufenozide had no negative effects nor on B. oleae nor on P. concolor. In contrast, RH-5849 had no deleterious effect to the parasitoid but decreased olive fruit fly adults’ life span, especially when they were in contact with the fresh residue of the insecticide applied on a glass surface. The docking study of RH-5849 molecule has shown a very light hindrance with the wall of the LBD pocket. This means that this molecule could more or less adjust in the cavity. Thus, searching of new insecticides for controlling the olive fruit fly could be based on the basic lead structure of RH-5849 molecule.

A review of the potential of renewable energy sources for the State of Jammu and Kashmir (India)

The future economic development trajectory for India is likely to result in rapid and accelerated growth in energy demand, with expected shortages. Many of its current policies and strategies are aimed at the improvement and possible maximization of energy production from the renewable sector. It is also clear that while energy-conservation and energy-efficiency can make an important contribution in the national energy strategy, renewable energies will be essential to the solution and are likely to play an increasingly important role for the growth of grid power, providing energy access, reducing consumption of fossil fuels, and helping India pursue its low carbon progressive pathway. However, most of the states in India, like the northernmost State of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), have experienced an energy crisis over a sustained period of time. As India intends to be one of the emerging powers of the 21st century, it has to embark upon with these pressing issues in a more sustainable manner and accordingly initiate various renewable energy projects within these states. This paper will provide a broad-spectrum view about the energy situation within J&K and will highlight the current policies along with future strategies for the optimal utilization of renewable energy resources.

Potential of the renewable energy development in Jammu and Kashmir, India

The future economic growth for India is likely to result in rapid and accelerated surge in energy demand, with expected shortages in terms of supply. Many of its current policies and strategies are aimed at the improvement and possible maximization of energy production from the renewable sector. It is also clear that while energy conservation and energy efficiency can make an important contribution, renewable energies will be essential to the solution and are likely to play an increasingly important role for providing enhanced energy access, reducing consumption of fossil fuels, and helping India pursue its low-carbon progressive pathway. However, most of the states in India, like the northernmost state of Jammu and Kashmir, have experienced an energy crisis over a sustained period of time and the government both at center and state level has to embark upon with these pressing issues in a more sustainable manner and accordingly initiate various renewable energy projects within these states. This paper will provide a broad-spectrum view about the energy situation within Jammu and Kashmir and will highlight the current policies along with future strategies for the optimal utilization of renewable energy resources.

Assessing the potential of hybrid fossil–solar thermal plants for energy policy making: Brayton cycles

This paper proposes a first study in-depth of solar-fossil hybridization from a general perspective. It develops a set of useful parameters for analyzing and comparing hybrid plants, it studies the case of hybridizing Brayton cycles with current solar technologies and shows a tentative extrapolation of the results to integrated combined cycle systems (ISCSS). In particular, three points have been analyzed: the technical requirements for solar technologies to be hybridized with Brayton cycles, the temperatures and pressures at which hybridization would produce maximum power per unit of fossil fuel, and their mapping to current solar technologies and Brayton cycles. Major conclusions are that a hybrid plant works in optimum conditions which are not equal to those of the solar or power blocks considered independently, and that hybridizing at the Brayton cycle of a combined cycle could be energetically advantageous.

Energy saving potential of semi-transparent photovoltaic elements for building integration

Within the building energy saving strategies, BIPV (building integrated photovoltaic systems) present a promising potential based on the close relationship existing between these multifunctional systems and the overall building energy balance. Building integration of STPV (semi-transparent photovoltaic) elements affects deeply the building energy demand since it influences the heating, cooling and lighting loads as well as the local electricity generation. This work analyses over different window-to-wall ratios the overall energy performance of five STPV elements, each element having a specific degree of transparency, in order to assess the energy saving potential compared to a conventional solar control glass compliant with the local technical standard. The prior optical characterization, focused to measure the spectral properties of the elements, was experimentally undertaken. The obtained data were used to perform simulations based on a reference office building using a package of specific software tools (DesignBuilder, EnergyPlus, PVsyst, and COMFEN) to take proper account of the STPV peculiarities. To evaluate the global energy performance of the STPV elements a new Energy Balance Index was formulated. The results show that for intermediate and large façade openings the energy saving potential provided by the STPV solutions ranges between 18% and 59% compared to the reference glass.

Analysis and Potential of Use of Biomass Energy in Canary Islands, Spain

Biomass has always been associated with the development of the population in the Canary Islands as the first source of elemental energy that was in the archipelago and the main cause of deforestation of forests, which over the years has been replaced by forest fossil fuels. The Canary Islands store a large amount of energy in the form of biomass. This may be important on a small scale for the design of small power plants with similar fuels from agricultural activities, and these plants could supply rural areas that could have self-sufficiency energy. The problem with the Canary Islands for a boost in this achievement is to ensure the supply to the consumer centers or power plants for greater efficiency that must operate continuously, allowing them to have a resource with regularity, quality and at an acceptable cost. In the Canary Islands converge also a unique topography with a very rugged terrain that makes it greater difficult to use and significantly more expensive. In this work all these aspects are studied, giving conclusions, action paths and theoretical potentials.

Energy efficiency evaluation of zero energy houses

Given the global energy and environmental situation, the European Union has been issuing directives with increasingly demanding requirements in term of the energy efficiency in buildings. The international competition of sustainable houses, Solar Decathlon Europe (SDE), is aligned with these European objectives. SDE houses are low energy solar buildings that must reach the near to zero energy houses’ goal. In the 2012 edition, in order to emphasize its significance, the Energy Efficiency Contest was added. SDE houses’ interior comfort, functioning and energy performance is monitored. The monitoring data can give an idea about the efficiency of the houses. However, a jury comprised by international experts is responsible for carrying out the houses energy efficiency evaluation. Passive strategies and houses services are analyzed. Additionally, the jury's assessment has been compared with the behavior of the houses during the monitoring period. Comparative studies make emphasis on the energy aspects, houses functioning and their interior comfort. Conclusions include thoughts related with the evaluation process, the results of the comparative studies and suggestions for the next competitions.