Assessing the effects of complexity in cross-temporal transferability of species distribution modelling predictions using palaeobotanical data

Valoración de la transferencia temporal de los modelos de distribución de especies para su aplicación en nuestros días utilizando datos paleobotánicos Corilus avellana y Alnus glutinosa.

Using ecological niche models to support tree species selection for forest restoration planning in largely deforested regions

Species selection for forest restoration is often supported by expert knowledge on local distribution patterns of native tree species. This approach is not applicable to largely deforested regions unless enough data on pre-human tree species distribution is available. In such regions, ecological niche models may provide essential information to support species selection in the framework of forest restoration planning. In this study we used ecological niche models to predict habitat suitability for native tree species in "Tierra de Campos" region, an almost totally deforested area of the Duero Basin (Spain). Previously available models provide habitat suitability predictions for dominant native tree species, but including non-dominant tree species in the forest restoration planning may be desirable to promote biodiversity, specially in largely deforested areas were near seed sources are not expected. We used the Forest Map of Spain as species occurrence data source to maximize the number of modeled tree species. Penalized logistic regression was used to train models using climate and lithological predictors. Using model predictions a set of tools were developed to support species selection in forest restoration planning. Model predictions were used to build ordered lists of suitable species for each cell of the study area. The suitable species lists were summarized drawing maps that showed the two most suitable species for each cell. Additionally, potential distribution maps of the suitable species for the study area were drawn. For a scenario with two dominant species, the models predicted a mixed forest (Quercus ilex and a coniferous tree species) for almost one half of the study area. According to the models, 22 non-dominant native tree species are suitable for the study area, with up to six suitable species per cell. The model predictions pointed to Crataegus monogyna, Juniperus communis, J.oxycedrus and J.phoenicea as the most suitable non-dominant native tree species in the study area. Our results encourage further use of ecological niche models for forest restoration planning in largely deforested regions.

Lesson from the habitat suitability models to evaluate the environmental of Pinus nigra Arnold and Pinus sylvesris L. in the Iberian Peninsula

PREDICT POTENTIAL DISTRIBUTION. Spatial and temporal evolution of the species under different climate scenarios. Generation of habitat suitability models (HSM)  high degree of uncertainty and limitations. The importance of their validation has been stressed. In this work we discuss the present potential distribution of P. sylvestris and P. nigra in the Iberian Peninsula by using MaxEnt, and evaluate the influence of the different environmental variables. Our intention is to select a set of environmental variables that explains better their current distribution, to achieve the most accurate and reliable models. Then we project them to the past climatic conditions (21 to 0 kyrs BP), to evaluate the outputs with existing palaeo-ecological data.

An Empirical Analysis of the Spanish Gas Price Structure

We can say without hesitation that in energy markets a throughout data analysis is crucial when designing sophisticated models that are able to capture most of the critical market drivers. In this study we will attempt to investigate into Spanish natural gas prices structure to improve understanding of the role they play in the determination of electricity prices and decide in the future about price modelling aspects. To further understand the potential for modelling, this study will focus on the nature and characteristics of the different gas price data available. The fact that the existing gas market in Spain does not incorporate enough liquidity of trade makes it even more critical to analyze in detail available gas price data information that in the end will provide relevant information to understand how electricity prices are affected by natural gas markets. In this sense representative Spanish gas prices are typically difficult to explore given the fact that there is not a transparent gas market yet and all the gas imported in the country is negotiated and purchased by private companies at confidential terms.

Conservación de plantas regeneradas in vitro y análisis de la variación somaclonal de Cinchona officinalis, Linneo

Cinchona officinalis (Rubiaceae), especie endémica del Valle de Loja, ubicado en la región sur del Ecuador, es un recurso forestal de importancia medicinal y ecológica, además la especie ha sido catalogada como planta nacional y es un ícono de la región sur por su aporte a la farmacopea mundial. Esta especie, entre los siglos XVII-XIX sufrió una gran presión en sus poblaciones debido a la extracción masiva de la corteza para la cura del paludismo. Aunque la actividad extractiva generó grandes ingresos a la Corona Española y a la región Sur del Ecuador, ésta fue poco o nada sustentable ecológicamente, provocando la desaparición de la especie en muchos sitios de la provincia, pues, en su momento, no se consideraron alternativas de recuperación de las poblaciones naturales. Actualmente la extracción y consumo de la corteza en la zona de origen es baja o nula, sin embargo esta zona enfrenta nuevas amenazas. La deforestación a causa de proyectos de desarrollo en infraestructuras, la práctica de actividades agrícolas y de ganadería, y los efectos del cambio climático han ocasionado, en estos últimos años, la fragmentación de los ecosistemas. La mayoría de los bosques del sur del Ecuador se han convertido en parches aislados (los bosques en los que se distribuye C. officinalis no son la excepción) siendo esta la principal causa para que la especie se encuentre en estado de amenaza. Los individuos de la especie tienen una alta capacidad de rebrote y producen semillas durante todo el año; sin embargo la capacidad germinativa y la tasa de sobrevivencia son bajas, además de estas dificultades la especie requiere de la asociación con otras especies vegetales para su desarrollo, lo cual ha limitado su distribución en pequeños parches aislados. Con esta problemática, la recuperación natural de las poblaciones es una necesidad evidente. Varios trabajos y esfuerzos previos se han realizado a nivel local: i. Identificación de la distribución actual y potencial; ii. Determinación de la fenología y fructificación iii. Programas de educación ambiental, iv. Análisis moleculares para determinar la diversidad genética. v. Ensayos de propagación vegetativa; y otras acciones de tipo cultural. No obstante, el estado de conservación y manejo de las poblaciones naturales no ha mejorado significativamente, siendo necesaria la aplicación de estrategias integradas de conservación in situ y ex situ, que permitan la recuperación y permanencia de las poblaciones naturales a largo plazo. El presente trabajo tiene como fin dar alternativas para el cultivo de tejidos in vitro de Cinchona officinalis centrados en la propagación masiva a partir de semillas, análisis de la fidelidad genética y alternativas de conservación de tejidos. Los objetivos específicos que se plantean son: i. Analizar el proceso de germinación y proliferación in vitro. ii. Evaluar la estabilidad genética en explantes cultivados in vitro, mediante marcadores ISSR. iii. Establecer protocolos de conservación in vitro mediante limitación del crecimiento y criopreservación de segmentos nodales y yemas. Los resultados más significativos de esta investigación fueron: i. El desarrollo de protocolos eficientes para mejorar los porcentajes de germinación y la proliferación de brotes en explantos cultivados in vitro. Para evaluar el efecto de los fenoles sobre la germinación, se determinó el contenido total de fenoles y el porcentaje de germinación en semillas de C. officinalis comparados con una especie de control, C. pubescens. Para inducir a proliferación, se utilizaron segmentos nodales de plántulas germinadas in vitro en medio Gamborg (1968) suplementado con diferentes combinaciones de reguladores de crecimiento (auxinas y citoquininas). Los resultados obtenidos sugieren que el contenido de compuestos fenólicos es alto en las semillas de C. officinalis en comparación con las semillas de C. pubescens. Estos fenoles pueden eliminarse con peróxido de hidrógeno o con lavados de agua para estimular la germinación. La formación de nuevos brotes y callos en la mayoría de las combinaciones de reguladores de crecimiento se observó en un período de 45 días. El mayor porcentaje de proliferación de brotes, formación de callos y presencia de brotes adventicios se obtuvo en medio Gamborg (B5) suplementado con 5.0 mg/l 6-bencil-aminopurina y 3.0 mg/l de ácido indol-3-butírico. ii. La evaluación de la fidelidad genética de los explantes obtenidos con distintas combinaciones de reguladores de crecimiento vegetal y diversos subcultivos. Se realizó el seguimiento a los explantes obtenidos de la fase anterior, determinando el índice de multiplicación y analizando la fidelidad genética de los tejidos obtenidos por las dos vías regenerativas: brotación directa y regeneración de brotes a partir de callos. Este análisis se realizó por amplificación mediante PCR de las secuencias ubicadas entre microsatélites-ISSR (Inter simple sequence repeat). El medio Gamborg (B5) con 3.0 mg/l de AIB y 5.0 mg/l de BAP usado como medio de inducción en la primera etapa de cultivo generó el mayor índice de proliferación (11.5). Un total de 13 marcadores ISSR fueron analizados, 6 de éstos fueron polimórficos. El mayor porcentaje de variación somaclonal fue inducido en presencia de 1.0 mg/l 2,4-D combinado con 0.2 mg/l Kin con un 1.8% en el segundo sub-cultivo de regeneración, la cual incrementó a 3.6% en el tercer sub-cultivo. Todas las combinaciones con presencia de 2,4-D produjeron la formación de callos y presentaron variación genética. Por su parte la fidelidad genética se mantuvo en los sistemas de propagación directa a través de la formación de brotes a partir de meristemos preformados. iii. El establecimiento de protocolos de conservación in vitro y crioconservación de segmentos nodales y yemas. Para la conservación limitando el crecimiento, se cultivaron segmentos nodales en los medios MS y B5 en tres concentraciones de sus componentes (25, 50 y 100%); y en medio B5 más agentes osmóticos como el manitol, sorbitol y sacarosa en diferentes concentraciones (2, 4 y 8%); los cultivos se mantuvieron por 12 meses sin subcultivos. Para el establecimiento de protocolos para la crioconservación (paralización del metabolismo) se usaron yemas axilares y apicales a las cuales se les aplicaron los métodos de encapsulación-deshidratación y vitrificación. La efectividad de los protocolos usados se determinó en función de la sobrevivencia, reducción del crecimiento y regeneración. Los resultados obtenidos en este apartado reflejan que un crecimiento limitado puede mantener tejidos durante 12 meses de almacenamiento, usando medio B5 más manitol entre 2 y 8%. En los protocolos de crioconservación, se obtuvo el mayor porcentaje de recuperación tras la congelación en NL en el tratamiento control seguido por el método crioprotector de encapsulación-deshidratación. Este trabajo brinda alternativas para la propagación de C. officinalis bajo condiciones in vitro, partiendo de material vegetal con alta diversidad genética. El material propagado puede ser fuente de germoplasma para la recuperación y reforzamiento de las poblaciones naturales así como una alternativa de producción para las comunidades locales debido a la demanda actual de corteza de la zona de origen para la elaboración de agua tónica. ABSTRACT Cinchona officinalis (Rubiaceae) is endemic to the Loja Valley, located in the southern area of Ecuador. The importance of this plant as medical and ecological resource is so great that it has been designated as the national flower and is an icon of the southern region for its contribution to the world pharmacopoeia. Between XVII-XIX centuries its population suffered great reduction due to massive harvesting of the bark to cure malaria. Although extraction activity generated large revenues to the Spanish Crown and the southern region of Ecuador, this was not ecologically sustainable, causing the disappearance of the species in many areas of the province, because during that time alternatives to prevent extinction and recover natural populations were not taken in account. Currently the extraction and consumption of bark in the area of origin is almost absent, but this species faces new threats. Deforestation due to infrastructure development, the practice of farming and ranching, and the effects of climate change had led to the fragmentation of ecosystems during the recent years. Most of the forests of southern Ecuador have become isolated patches, including those where C. officinalis is diffused. The lack of suitable habitat is today the main threat for the species. The species has a high capacity for regeneration and produces seeds throughout the year, but the germination rate is low and the growth is slow. In addition, the species requires the association with other plant species to develop. All these factors had limited its distribution to small isolated patches. The natural recovery of populations is essential to face this problem. Several studies and previous efforts had been made at local level: i. Identification of current and potential distribution; ii. Phenology determination. iii. Environmental education programs, iv. Molecular analisis to determine the genetic diversity. v. Testing of vegetative propagation; and other actions of cultural nature. Despite these efforts, the state of conservation and management of natural populations has not improved significantly. Implementation of integrated in situ and ex situ conservation strategies for the recovery and permanence of long-term natural populations is still needed. This work aims to provide alternatives for in vitro culture of tissue of Cinchona officinalis focused on mass propagation from seeds, genetic fidelity analysis and tissue conservation alternatives. The specific aims are: i. Analyze the process of germination and proliferation in vitro. ii. To evaluate the genetic stability of the explants cultured in vitro by ISSR markers. iii. Establish protocols for in vitro conservation by limiting growth and cryopreservation of nodal segments and buds. The most significant results of this research were: i. The development of efficient protocols to improve germination rates and proliferation of buds in explants cultured in vitro. To study the effect of phenols on germination, the total phenolic content and percentage germination was measured in C. officinalis and in a control species, C. pubescens, for comparison. The content of phenolic compounds in C. officinalis seeds is higher than in C. pubescens. These phenols can be removed with hydrogen peroxide or water washes to stimulate germination. To analyze the regeneration, we used nodal explants from seedlings germinated in vitro on Gamborg medium (1968) supplemented with different combinations of growth regulators (auxins and cytokinins) to induce proliferation. The formation of new shoots and calluses was observed within a period of 45 days in most combinations of growth regulators. The highest percentage of shoot proliferation, callus formation and adventitious buds were obtained in B5 medium supplemented with 5.0 mg/l 6-benzyl-aminopurine and 3.0 mg/l indole-3-butyric acid. ii. Evaluating genetic fidelity explants obtained with various combinations of plant growth regulators and different subcultures. The genetic fidelity was analyzed in tissues obtained by the two regenerative pathways: direct sprouting and shoot regeneration from callus. This analysis was performed by PCR amplification of the sequences located between microsatellite-ISSR (Inter Simple Sequence Repeat). Among a total of 13 ISSR markers analyzed, 6 were polymorphic. The highest percentage of somaclonal variation was induced in the presence of 1.0 mg/l 2,4-D combined with 0.2 mg/l Kin with 1.8% in the second round of regeneration, and increased to 3.6% in the third round. The presence of 2,4-D induced genetic variation in all the combinations of growth regulators. Meanwhile genetic fidelity remained systems propagation through direct shoot formation from meristems preformed. iii. Establishing conservation protocols in vitro and cryoconservation of nodal segments and buds. For medium-term conservation (limited growth) nodal segments were cultured in MS and B5 media at three concentrations (25, 50 and 100%); we tested B5 medium with different concentrations of osmotic agents such as mannitol, sorbitol and sucrose (2, 4 and 8%); cultures were maintained for 12 months with regular subculturing. To establish protocols for cryoconservation (cessation of metabolism) different methods of encapsulation-dehydration and vitrification were applied to axillary and apical buds. The effectiveness of the used protocols is determined based on the survival, growth and regeneration success. The results show that these tissues can be maintained in storage for 12 months, using B5 medium plus mannitol between 2 and 8%. The cryoconservation protocol with highest percentage of recovery was obtained by contral treatment, followed by freezing in NL with encapsulation-dehydration method. This work provides alternatives for the propagation in vitro of C. officinalis, starting from plant material with high genetic diversity. The obtained material represents a source of germplasm to support the recovery and strengthening of natural populations as well as a creation of alternative sources for local communities due to the current demand of bark for the preparation of tonic water.

Modelling the spatio-temporal pattern of primary dispersal in stone pine (Pinus pinea L.) stands in the Northern Plateau (Spain)

Natural regeneration in stone pine (Pinus pinea L.) managed forests in the Spanish Northern Plateau is not achieved successfully under current silviculture practices, constituting a main concern for forest managers. We modelled spatio-temporal features of primary dispersal to test whether (a) present low stand densities constrain natural regeneration success and (b) seed release is a climate-controlled process. The present study is based on data collected from a 6 years seed trap experiment considering different regeneration felling intensities. From a spatial perspective, we attempted alternate established kernels under different data distribution assumptions to fit a spatial model able to predict P. pinea seed rain. Due to P. pinea umbrella-like crown, models were adapted to account for crown effect through correction of distances between potential seed arrival locations and seed sources. In addition, individual tree fecundity was assessed independently from existing models, improving parameter estimation stability. Seed rain simulation enabled to calculate seed dispersal indexes for diverse silvicultural regeneration treatments. The selected spatial model of best fit (Weibull, Poisson assumption) predicted a highly clumped dispersal pattern that resulted in a proportion of gaps where no seed arrival is expected (dispersal limitation) between 0.25 and 0.30 for intermediate intensity regeneration fellings and over 0.50 for intense fellings. To describe the temporal pattern, the proportion of seeds released during monthly intervals was modelled as a function of climate variables – rainfall events – through a linear model that considered temporal autocorrelation, whereas cone opening took place over a temperature threshold. Our findings suggest the application of less intensive regeneration fellings, to be carried out after years of successful seedling establishment and, seasonally, subsequent to the main rainfall period (late fall). This schedule would avoid dispersal limitation and would allow for a complete seed release. These modifications in present silviculture practices would produce a more efficient seed shadow in managed stands.