57 resultados para Parametric sensitivity analysis

em Universidad Politécnica de Madrid


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Análisis de sensibilidad de modelos de turbulencia para un modelo CFD de viento aplicados a un emplazamiento en terreno complejo. Validación con datos de viento y turbulencia registrados a 3 alturas en 3 torres de medida.

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A sensitivity analysis has been performed to assess the influence of the inertial properties of railway vehicles on their dynamic behaviour. To do this, 216 dynamic simulations were performed modifying, one at a time, the masses, moments of inertia and heights of the centre of gravity of the carbody, the bogie and the wheelset. Three values were assigned to each parameter, corresponding to the percentiles 10, 50 and 90 of a data set stored in a database of railway vehicles. After processing the results of these simulations, the analyzed parameters were sorted by increasing influence. It was also found which of these parameters could be estimated with a lesser degree of accuracy for future simulations without appreciably affecting the simulation results. In general terms, it was concluded that the most sensitive inertial properties are the mass and the vertical moment of inertia, and the least sensitive ones the longitudinal and lateral moments of inertia.

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Different methods to reduce the high suction caused by conical vortices have been reported in the literature: vertical parapets, either solid or porous, placed at the roof edges being the most analysed configuration. Another method for alleviating the high suction peaks due to conical vortices is the use of some non-standard parapet configuration like cantilever parapets. In this paper the influence of roof curvature on the conical vortex pattern appearing on a curved roof (Fig. 1) when subject to oblique winds is experimentally analysed by testing the mean pressure distribution on the curved roofs of low-rise building models in a wind tunnel. Also, the efficiency of cantilever parapets to reduce mean suction loads on curved roofs is experimentally checked. Very high suction loads have been measured on curved roofs, the magnitude of these high suction loads being significantly decreased when cantilever parapets are used. Thus, the suitability of these parapets to reduce wind pressure loads on curved roofs is demonstrated.

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During the last years many researchers have been working on the active matching or on non-Foster matching networks for one- and two-port electrically small antennas (ESAs). A new parameter on the sensitivity of the two-port electrically small antenna when loaded with a non-F oster network is presented. This sensitivity analysis will allow us to choose what kind of antennas can be properly matched with non-Foster networks and their position in order to optimi ze the performance of the design. Then, a typical high Q two-port antenna will be harder to match over a broad bandwidth, since |S21| is very small and only agrees with |S11| over very small frequency bands, yielding very large sensitivity values. However, for these two-port antennas, if high levels of coupling can be engineered for a high Q multiple-port antenna, the return and insertion losses can be similar over larger bandwidths and, hence, the sensitivity can be kept low over larger bandwidths, enabling broader impedance matched bandwidths to be achieved, even for highly resonant antennas.

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Air pollution abatement policies must be based on quantitative information on current and future emissions of pollutants. As emission projections uncertainties are inevitable and traditional statistical treatments of uncertainty are highly time/resources consuming, a simplified methodology for nonstatistical uncertainty estimation based on sensitivity analysis is presented in this work. The methodology was applied to the “with measures” scenario for Spain, concretely over the 12 highest emitting sectors regarding greenhouse gas and air pollutants emissions. Examples of methodology application for two important sectors (power plants, and agriculture and livestock) are shown and explained in depth. Uncertainty bands were obtained up to 2020 by modifying the driving factors of the 12 selected sectors and the methodology was tested against a recomputed emission trend in a low economic-growth perspective and official figures for 2010, showing a very good performance. Implications: A solid understanding and quantification of uncertainties related to atmospheric emission inventories and projections provide useful information for policy negotiations. However, as many of those uncertainties are irreducible, there is an interest on how they could be managed in order to derive robust policy conclusions. Taking this into account, a method developed to use sensitivity analysis as a source of information to derive nonstatistical uncertainty bands for emission projections is presented and applied to Spain. This method simplifies uncertainty assessment and allows other countries to take advantage of their sensitivity analyses.

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Este trabajo presenta un método discreto para el cálculo de estabilidad hidrodinámica y análisis de sensibilidad a perturbaciones externas para ecuaciones diferenciales y en particular para las ecuaciones de Navier-Stokes compressible. Se utiliza una aproximación con variable compleja para obtener una precisión analítica en la evaluación de la matriz Jacobiana. Además, mapas de sensibilidad para la sensibilidad a las modificaciones del flujo de base y a una fuerza constante permiten identificar las regiones del campo fluido donde una modificacin (ej. fuerza puntual) tiene un efecto estabilizador del flujo. Se presentan cuatro casos de prueba: (1) un caso analítico para comprobar la derivación discreta, (2) una cavidad cerrada a bajo Reynolds para mostrar la mayor precisión en el cálculo de los valores propios con la aproximación de paso complejo, (3) flujo 2D en un cilindro circular para validar la metodología, y (4) flujo en un cavidad abierta, presentado para validar el método en casos de inestabilidades convectivamente inestables. Los tres últimos casos mencionados (2-4) se resolvieron con las ecuaciones de Navier-Stokes compresibles, utilizando un método Discontinuous Galerkin Spectral Element Method. Se obtuvo una buena concordancia para el caso de validación (3), cuando se comparó el nuevo método con resultados de la literatura. Además, este trabajo muestra que para el cálculo de los modos propios directos y adjuntos, así como para los mapas de sensibilidad, el uso de variables complejas es de suprema importancia para obtener una predicción precisa. El método descrito es aplicado al análisis para la estabilización de la estela generada por un disco actuador, que representa un modelo sencillo para hélices, rotores de helicópteros o turbinas eólicas. Se explora la primera bifurcación del flujo para un disco actuador, y se sugiere que está asociada a una inestabilidad de tipo Kelvin-Helmholtz, cuya estabilidad se controla con en el número de Reynolds y en la resistencia del disco actuador (o fuerza resistente). En primer lugar, se verifica que la disminución de la resistencia del disco tiene un efecto estabilizador parecido a una disminución del Reynolds. En segundo lugar, el análisis hidrodinmico discreto identifica dos regiones para la colocación de una fuerza puntual que controle las inestabilidades, una cerca del disco y otra en una zona aguas abajo. En tercer lugar, se muestra que la inclusión de un forzamiento localizado cerca del actuador produce una estabilización más eficiente que al forzar aguas abajo. El análisis de los campos de flujo controlados confirma que modificando el gradiente de velocidad cerca del actuador es más eficiente para estabilizar la estela. Estos resultados podrían proporcionar nuevas directrices para la estabilización de la estela de turbinas de viento o de marea cuando estén instaladas en un parque eólico y minimizar las interacciones no estacionarias entre turbinas. ABSTRACT A discrete framework for computing the global stability and sensitivity analysis to external perturbations for any set of partial differential equations is presented. In particular, a complex-step approximation is used to achieve near analytical accuracy for the evaluation of the Jacobian matrix. Sensitivity maps for the sensitivity to base flow modifications and to a steady force are computed to identify regions of the flow field where an input could have a stabilising effect. Four test cases are presented: (1) an analytical test case to prove the theory of the discrete framework, (2) a lid-driven cavity at low Reynolds case to show the improved accuracy in the calculation of the eigenvalues when using the complex-step approximation, (3) the 2D flow past a circular cylinder at just below the critical Reynolds number is used to validate the methodology, and finally, (4) the flow past an open cavity is presented to give an example of the discrete method applied to a convectively unstable case. The latter three (2–4) of the aforementioned cases were solved with the 2D compressible Navier–Stokes equations using a Discontinuous Galerkin Spectral Element Method. Good agreement was obtained for the validation test case, (3), with appropriate results in the literature. Furthermore, it is shown that for the calculation of the direct and adjoint eigenmodes and their sensitivity maps to external perturbations, the use of complex variables is paramount for obtaining an accurate prediction. An analysis for stabilising the wake past an actuator disc, which represents a simple model for propellers, helicopter rotors or wind turbines is also presented. We explore the first flow bifurcation for an actuator disc and it suggests that it is associated to a Kelvin- Helmholtz type instability whose stability relies on the Reynolds number and the flow resistance applied through the disc (or actuator forcing). First, we report that decreasing the disc resistance has a similar stabilising effect to an decrease in the Reynolds number. Second, a discrete sensitivity analysis identifies two regions for suitable placement of flow control forcing, one close to the disc and one far downstream where the instability originates. Third, we show that adding a localised forcing close to the actuator provides more stabilisation that forcing far downstream. The analysis of the controlled flow fields, confirms that modifying the velocity gradient close to the actuator is more efficient to stabilise the wake than controlling the sheared flow far downstream. An interesting application of these results is to provide guidelines for stabilising the wake of wind or tidal turbines when placed in an energy farm to minimise unsteady interactions.

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A broadband primary standard for thermal noise measurements is presented and its thermal and electromagnetic behaviour is analysed by means of a novel hybrid analytical?numerical simulation methodology. The standard consists of a broadband termination connected to a 3.5mm coaxial airline partially immersed in liquid nitrogen and is designed in order to obtain a low reflectivity and a low uncertainty in the noise temperature. A detailed sensitivity analysis is made in order to highlight the critical characteristics that mostly affect the uncertainty in the noise temperature, and also to determine the manufacturing and operation tolerances for a proper performance in the range 10MHz to 26.5 GHz. Aspects such as the thermal bead design, the level of liquid nitrogen or the uncertainties associated with the temperatures, the physical properties of the materials in the standard and the simulation techniques are discussed.

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En los últimos años ha aumentado el interés en el desarrollo de proyectos en el ámbito de las centrales hidroeléctricas y en concreto en las centrales reversibles. Estas centrales están diseñadas para grandes caudales y saltos, lo cual conlleva túneles de gran diámetro y alta presión y a menudo son esquemas subterráneos. Por ello, los estudios relativos a revestimientos de túneles en presión y los referentes a los blindajes de acero han cobrado una mayor relevancia. En las décadas de los 60 y 70 se realizó una importante labor de investigación coincidiendo con el desarrollo hidroeléctrico en Europa y Norteamérica, que sin embargo ha quedado sin continuidad hasta esta década, en la que se ha experimentado un impulso debido al desarrollo de nuevos proyectos hidroeléctricos de gran magnitud. La adecuación de los métodos de cálculo de blindajes supone una herramienta imprescindible en el correcto desarrollo técnico de los nuevos proyectos hidroeléctricos, así como para la evaluación de la seguridad de los saltos hidroeléctricos existentes en operación. En la presente Tesis se realiza un análisis del comportamiento estructural de las galerías en presión de saltos hidroeléctricos, así como una discusión y revisión de los métodos de cálculo existentes. En concreto se analizan los siguientes aspectos: •Descripción y comparación de las formulaciones existentes para el cálculo de blindajes tanto a presión exterior como interior. •Aplicación del Método de Elementos Finitos para la modelización y cálculo resistente y frente a inestabilidad de blindajes sometidos a presión exterior. •Análisis de un caso real, en el que se ha producido un fallo estructural en un blindaje sometido a presión exterior. Discusión sobre el comportamiento de blindajes con rigidizadores. Estudio paramétrico de la capacidad resistente y de la estabilidad de los blindajes con rigidizadores. •Estudio del comportamiento diferenciado entre un rigidizador y un conector. •Detalles constructivos y de durabilidad de las galerías en presión. •Desarrollo de una metodología para el cálculo de blindajes y tuberías forzadas a fatiga derivada de las variaciones de presión de la conducción. •Análisis de un caso real de una tubería forzada sometida a procesos de variación de carga, evaluando su seguridad frente a la fatiga. El cálculo de blindajes en galerías forzadas presenta una serie de aspectos complejos, y que no permiten la definición del problema con exactitud, tales como las características del macizo rocoso y su permeabilidad, la determinación del nivel freático, la holgura existente entre el blindaje y el revestimiento del trasdós y sus posibles defectos geométricos. Por estas incertidumbres, el cálculo de blindajes supone una materia compleja y que debe ser abordada desde la cautela y el análisis de otros trabajos y/o análisis realizados con anterioridad. En cualquier caso, debe realizarse un análisis de sensibilidad de los diversos parámetros que intervienen en el cálculo. En esta tesis se han descrito las principales formulaciones de cálculo de blindajes de galerías forzadas sometidas a presión interior y exterior; se ha constatado que existe una gran diversidad y que de su aplicación no se llega a resultados concluyentes. Las formulaciones clásicas utilizadas en el cálculo de blindajes lisos y con rigidizadores sometidos a presión exterior (Amstutz y Jacobsen) no resultan del todo adecuadas ni son de aplicación general. Además, pueden arrojar resultados no conservadores o conducir a un sobredimensionamiento del blindaje en otros casos. En las formulaciones tradicionales de diseño se han tenido en cuenta como imperfecciones la holgura del blindaje y la ovalidad del mismo. En la presente tesis, se han analizado imperfecciones de tipo ondulatorio derivadas de los procesos de soldadura y la existencia de espesores reducidos en zonas de corrosión. En el caso práctico analizado sometido a presión exterior, se ha comprobado el funcionamiento real del blindaje mediante los modelos realizados con elementos finitos. Se desprende que los rigidizadores no han funcionado como tales, puesto que para blindajes lisos se obtienen presiones más bajas de pandeo y para el caso de funcionamiento correcto de los rigidizadores se habría obtenido un coeficiente de seguridad suficiente. Por este motivo, se ha analizado el posible funcionamiento de los rigidizadores, que en determinados casos pueden actuar como conectores. En estos casos deben dimensionarse de forma adecuada las soldaduras para soportar las tensiones entre chapa y conector. Por otra parte, tradicionalmente no se han tenido en cuenta los efectos de fatiga que pueden ocasionar los golpes de ariete y las pulsaciones de presión debidas a la regulación secundaria de la red. En esta tesis se ha establecido un procedimiento de comprobación de tuberías forzadas y blindajes sometidos a procesos de fatiga. Adicionalmente, se ha estudiado el caso real de las tuberías forzadas de una central reversible real (Bolarque II) en funcionamiento de regulación secundaria. Se ha concluido, como en otros casos analizados en la bibliografía, que las pulsaciones derivadas de la regulación secundaria no son significativas como para tener en cuenta la fatiga del acero. Por otra parte, las maniobras de arranque y parada (golpe de ariete) suponen una variación importante de la presión en la conducción. Sin embargo, el moderado número de ciclos permite asegurar la integridad de la tubería frente a fenómenos de fatiga. Nowadays, there is a significant concern in the development of projects in the field of hydroelectric power plants, particularly in the pump-storage projects. These plants are designed for high flow rates and heads, which entails large-diameter tunnels and high pressure ratios), and often as underground schemes. Therefore, this concern has reactivated studies about penstocks and in particular those related to steel liners. During the 1960s and 1970s due to hydropower-engineering development in Europe and North America, a major research effort was done. However, the increasing development of new large-scale hydropower projects has involved a renewed research effort during this decade. The adequacy of steel liner calculation methods is a very important issue in the proper technical development of new hydroelectric projects, and for the safety assessment of existing hydroelectric power plants in operation. In this work, an analysis of the structural behavior of pressure galleries in hydroelectric schemes was carried out. Also, a discussion and a review of existing calculation methods are included. In particular, the following issues have been considered: •Description and comparison of existing formulations for calculating the liner response to both external and internal pressure. •Analysis of an actual case study of a steel liner which failed due to external pressure. •Application of the Finite Element Method to liner modeling and analysis subjected to external pressure. •A parametric study of the shielding with stiffeners and discussion about the behavior of liner with stiffeners. •Constructive aspects and durability of pressure galleries. •Development of a methodology for estimating fatigue effects on penstocks and liners sue to pressure changes. •Analysis of an actual case study of a penstock under varying load and assessment of its safety against fatigue. The project of a hydropower penstock is a complex issue, due to the uncertainties in the definition of the problem data, such as the characteristics of the rock mass and its permeability, the determination of the water table, the existing gap between the steel liner and the concrete of the backfill, the geometric imperfections... Hence, the design and analysis of a steel liner must be addressed cautiously and take into account a review of previous studies performed. Ever, a sensitivity analysis of the various parameters involved in the calculation should be performed. In this work, some of the most relevant formulations for liner design subjected to inside and outside pressure have been studied. As a whole, there is a wide variety and its application does not lead to conclusive results. The classical formulations used in the steel liner calculation either with or without stiffeners under external pressure (Amstutz and Jacobsen) are not entirely adequate Also, those can yield both conservative and non-conservative results in large ranges of application. Traditionally design approaches only considered initial gap and ovality as the most relevant geometric imperfections. Thus, little attention was paid to those caused either by welding or by thickness loss in corroded areas. In the case study analyzed in this thesis, the actual working of the liner under external pressure has been simulated by the Finite Element Method. Results show that the stiffeners have not performed as such, since for unstiffened liner lower buckling pressures are obtained and for proper performance of the stiffeners would give a sufficient safety factor. Hence, it must be pointed out that stiffeners may perform either as such or as connectors. For the latter, welding must be designed to properly withstand stresses between the shell and the stiffener. Likewise, the potential fatigue effects due to both water hammer and pressure pulsations due to secondary regulation of the network have not been considered in many studies. It has been included in this work a procedure for checking penstocks and liners under fatigue processes. Additionally, the penstock fatigue response of an actual pump storage project (Bolarque II, Spain) subjected to secondary control operation has been assessed. As in other cases discussed in the literature, pulsations derived from the secondary control are not significant to account for fatigue of steel. Moreover, the start and stop manoeuvres (water hammer) cause a significant change in penstock pressure. However, the moderate number of cycles ensures the integrity of the penstock against fatigue phenomena.

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A sensitivity analysis on the multiplication factor, keffkeff, to the cross section data has been carried out for the MYRRHA critical configuration in order to show the most relevant reactions. With these results, a further analysis on the 238Pu and 56Fe cross sections has been performed, comparing the evaluations provided in the JEFF-3.1.2 and ENDF/B-VII.1 libraries for these nuclides. Then, the effect in MYRRHA of the differences between evaluations are analysed, presenting the source of the differences. With these results, recommendations for the 56Fe and 238Pu evaluations are suggested. These calculations have been performed with SCALE6.1 and MCNPX-2.7e.

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In this paper we present a global overview of the recent study carried out in Spain for the new hazard map, which final goal is the revision of the Building Code in our country (NCSE-02). The study was carried our for a working group joining experts from The Instituto Geografico Nacional (IGN) and the Technical University of Madrid (UPM) , being the different phases of the work supervised by an expert Committee integrated by national experts from public institutions involved in subject of seismic hazard. The PSHA method (Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment) has been followed, quantifying the epistemic uncertainties through a logic tree and the aleatory ones linked to variability of parameters by means of probability density functions and Monte Carlo simulations. In a first phase, the inputs have been prepared, which essentially are: 1) a project catalogue update and homogenization at Mw 2) proposal of zoning models and source characterization 3) calibration of Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPE’s) with actual data and development of a local model with data collected in Spain for Mw < 5.5. In a second phase, a sensitivity analysis of the different input options on hazard results has been carried out in order to have criteria for defining the branches of the logic tree and their weights. Finally, the hazard estimation was done with the logic tree shown in figure 1, including nodes for quantifying uncertainties corresponding to: 1) method for estimation of hazard (zoning and zoneless); 2) zoning models, 3) GMPE combinations used and 4) regression method for estimation of source parameters. In addition, the aleatory uncertainties corresponding to the magnitude of the events, recurrence parameters and maximum magnitude for each zone have been also considered including probability density functions and Monte Carlo simulations The main conclusions of the study are presented here, together with the obtained results in terms of PGA and other spectral accelerations SA (T) for return periods of 475, 975 and 2475 years. The map of the coefficient of variation (COV) are also represented to give an idea of the zones where the dispersion among results are the highest and the zones where the results are robust.

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Advanced control techniques like V2, Vout hysteresis or V2Ic can strongly reduce the required output capacitance in PowerSoC converters. Techniques to analyze power converters based on the analysis of the frequency response are not suitable for ripple-based controllers that use fast-scale dynamics to control the power stage. This paper proves that the use of discrete modeling together with Floquet theory is a very powerful tool to model the system and derive stable region diagrams for sensitivity analysis. It is applied to V 2Ic control, validating experimentally that Floquet theory predicts accurately subharmonic oscillations. This method is applied to several ripplebased controllers, providing higher accuracy when it is compared with other techniques based on the frequency response. The paper experimentally validates the usefulness of the discrete modeling and the Floquet theory on a 5 MHz Buck converter with a V 2Ic control.

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Ripple-based controls can strongly reduce the required output capacitance in PowerSoC converter thanks to a very fast dynamic response. Unfortunately, these controls are prone to sub-harmonic oscillations and several parameters affect the stability of these systems. This paper derives and validates a simulation-based modeling and stability analysis of a closed-loop V 2Ic control applied to a 5 MHz Buck converter using discrete modeling and Floquet theory to predict stability. This allows the derivation of sensitivity analysis to design robust systems. The work is extended to different V 2 architectures using the same methodology.

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In this paper a novel bidirectional multiple port dc/dc transformer topology is presented. The novel concept for dc/dc transformer is based on the Series Resonant Converter (SRC) topology operated at its resonant frequency point. This allows for higher switching frequency to be adopted and enables high efficiency/high power density operation. The feasibility of the proposed concept is verified on a 300W, 700 kHz three port prototype with 390V input voltage and 48V and 12V output voltages. A peak overall efficiency of 93% is measured at full load. A very good load and cross regulation characteristic of the converter is observed in the whole load range, from full load to open circuit. The sensitivity analysis of the resonant capacitance is also performed showing very slight deterioration in the converter performances when a resonant capacitor is changed ±30% of its nominal value.

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This article presents a new and computationally efficient method of analysis of a railway track modelled as a continuous beam of 2N spans supported by elastic vertical springs. The main feature of this method is its important reduction in computational effort with respect to standard matrix methods of structural analysis. In this article, the whole structure is considered to be a repetition of a single one. The analysis presented is applied to a simple railway track model, i.e. to a repetitive beam supported on vertical springs (sleepers). The proposed method of analysis is based on the general theory of spatially periodic structures. The main feature of this theory is the possibility to apply Discrete Fourier Transform (DFT) in order to reduce a large system of q(2N + 1) linear stiffness equilibrium equations to a set of 2N + 1 uncoupled systems of q equations each. In this way, a dramatic reduction of the computational effort of solving the large system of equations is achieved. This fact is particularly important in the analysis of railway track structures, in which N is a very large number (around several thousands), and q = 2, the vertical displacement and rotation, is very small. The proposed method allows us to easily obtain the exact solution given by Samartín [1], i.e. the continuous beam railway track response. The comparison between the proposed method and other methods of analysis of railway tracks, such as Lorente de Nó and Zimmermann-Timoshenko, clearly shows the accuracy of the obtained results for the proposed method, even for low values of N. In addition, identical results between the proposed and the Lorente methods have been found, although the proposed method seems to be of simpler application and computationally more efficient than the Lorente one. Small but significative differences occur between these two methods and the one developed by Zimmermann-Timoshenko. This article also presents a detailed sensitivity analysis of the vertical displacement of the sleepers. Although standard matrix methods of structural analysis can handle this railway model, one of the objectives of this article is to show the efficiency of DFT method with respect to standard matrix structural analysis. A comparative analysis between standard matrix structural analysis and the proposed method (DFT), in terms of computational time, input, output and also software programming, will be carried out. Finally, a URL link to a MatLab computer program list, based on the proposed method, is given

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In this article, a model for the determination of displacements, strains, and stresses of a submarine pipeline during its construction is presented. Typically, polyethylene outfall pipelines are the ones treated by this model. The process is carried out from an initial floating situation to the final laying position on the seabed. The following control variables are considered in the laying process: the axial load in the pipe, the flooded inner length, and the distance of the control barge from the coast. External loads such as self-weight, dead loads, and forces due to currents and small waves are also taken into account.This paper describes both the conceptual framework for the proposed model and its practical application in a real engineering situation. The authors also consider how the model might be used as a tool to study how sensitive the behavior of the pipeline is to small changes in the values of the control variables. A detailed description of the actions is considered, especially the ones related to the marine environment such as buoyancy, current, and sea waves. The structural behavior of the pipeline is simulated in the framework of a geometrically nonlinear dynamic analysis. The pipeline is assumed to be a two-dimensional Navier_Bernoulli beam. In the nonlinear analysis an updated Lagrangian formulation is used, and special care is taken regarding the numerical aspects of sea bed contact, follower forces due to external water pressures, and dynamic actions. The paper concludes by describing the implementation of the proposed techniques, using the ANSYS computer program with a number of subroutines developed by the authors. This implementation permits simulation of the two-dimensional structural pipe behavior of the whole construction process. A sensitivity analysis of the bending moments, axial forces, and stresses for different values of the control variables is carried out. Using the techniques described, the engineer may optimize the construction steps in the pipe laying process