Modelling the Impact of Built Environment, Geographical Scales and Latent Constructs On Individual Travel Behaviour

La relación entre la estructura urbana y la movilidad ha sido estudiada desde hace más de 70 años. El entorno urbano incluye múltiples dimensiones como por ejemplo: la estructura urbana, los usos de suelo, la distribución de instalaciones diversas (comercios, escuelas y zonas de restauración, parking, etc.). Al realizar una revisión de la literatura existente en este contexto, se encuentran distintos análisis, metodologías, escalas geográficas y dimensiones, tanto de la movilidad como de la estructura urbana. En este sentido, se trata de una relación muy estudiada pero muy compleja, sobre la que no existe hasta el momento un consenso sobre qué dimensión del entorno urbano influye sobre qué dimensión de la movilidad, y cuál es la manera apropiada de representar esta relación. Con el propósito de contestar estas preguntas investigación, la presente tesis tiene los siguientes objetivos generales: (1) Contribuir al mejor entendimiento de la compleja relación estructura urbana y movilidad. y (2) Entender el rol de los atributos latentes en la relación entorno urbano y movilidad. El objetivo específico de la tesis es analizar la influencia del entorno urbano sobre dos dimensiones de la movilidad: número de viajes y tipo de tour. Vista la complejidad de la relación entorno urbano y movilidad, se pretende contribuir al mejor entendimiento de la relación a través de la utilización de 3 escalas geográficas de las variables y del análisis de la influencia de efectos inobservados en la movilidad. Para el análisis se utiliza una base de datos conformada por tres tipos de datos: (1) Una encuesta de movilidad realizada durante los años 2006 y 2007. Se obtuvo un total de 943 encuestas, en 3 barrios de Madrid: Chamberí, Pozuelo y Algete. (2) Información municipal del Instituto Nacional de Estadística: dicha información se encuentra enlazada con los orígenes y destinos de los viajes recogidos en la encuesta. Y (3) Información georeferenciada en Arc-GIS de los hogares participantes en la encuesta: la base de datos contiene información respecto a la estructura de las calles, localización de escuelas, parking, centros médicos y lugares de restauración. Se analizó la correlación entre e intra-grupos y se modelizaron 4 casos de atributos bajo la estructura ordinal logit. Posteriormente se evalúa la auto-selección a través de la estimación conjunta de las elecciones de tipo de barrio y número de viajes. La elección del tipo de barrio consta de 3 alternativas: CBD, Urban y Suburban, según la zona de residencia recogida en las encuestas. Mientras que la elección del número de viajes consta de 4 categorías ordinales: 0 viajes, 1-2 viajes, 3-4 viajes y 5 o más viajes. A partir de la mejor especificación del modelo ordinal logit. Se desarrolló un modelo joint mixed-ordinal conjunto. Los resultados indican que las variables exógenas requieren un análisis exhaustivo de correlaciones con el fin de evitar resultados sesgados. ha determinado que es importante medir los atributos del BE donde se realiza el viaje, pero también la información municipal es muy explicativa de la movilidad individual. Por tanto, la percepción de las zonas de destino a nivel municipal es considerada importante. En el contexto de la Auto-selección (self-selection) es importante modelizar conjuntamente las decisiones. La Auto-selección existe, puesto que los parámetros estimados conjuntamente son significativos. Sin embargo, sólo ciertos atributos del entorno urbano son igualmente importantes sobre la elección de la zona de residencia y frecuencia de viajes. Para analizar la Propensión al Viaje, se desarrolló un modelo híbrido, formado por: una variable latente, un indicador y un modelo de elección discreta. La variable latente se denomina “Propensión al Viaje”, cuyo indicador en ecuación de medida es el número de viajes; la elección discreta es el tipo de tour. El modelo de elección consiste en 5 alternativas, según la jerarquía de actividades establecida en la tesis: HOME, no realiza viajes durante el día de estudio, HWH tour cuya actividad principal es el trabajo o estudios, y no se realizan paradas intermedias; HWHs tour si el individuo reaiza paradas intermedias; HOH tour cuya actividad principal es distinta a trabajo y estudios, y no se realizan paradas intermedias; HOHs donde se realizan paradas intermedias. Para llegar a la mejor especificación del modelo, se realizó un trabajo importante considerando diferentes estructuras de modelos y tres tipos de estimaciones. De tal manera, se obtuvieron parámetros consistentes y eficientes. Los resultados muestran que la modelización de los tours, representa una ventaja sobre la modelización de los viajes, puesto que supera las limitaciones de espacio y tiempo, enlazando los viajes realizados por la misma persona en el día de estudio. La propensión al viaje (PT) existe y es específica para cada tipo de tour. Los parámetros estimados en el modelo híbrido resultaron significativos y distintos para cada alternativa de tipo de tour. Por último, en la tesis se verifica que los modelos híbridos representan una mejora sobre los modelos tradicionales de elección discreta, dando como resultado parámetros consistentes y más robustos. En cuanto a políticas de transporte, se ha demostrado que los atributos del entorno urbano son más importantes que los LOS (Level of Service) en la generación de tours multi-etapas. la presente tesis representa el primer análisis empírico de la relación entre los tipos de tours y la propensión al viaje. El concepto Propensity to Travel ha sido desarrollado exclusivamente para la tesis. Igualmente, el desarrollo de un modelo conjunto RC-Number of trips basado en tres escalas de medida representa innovación en cuanto a la comparación de las escalas geográficas, que no había sido hecha en la modelización de la self-selection. The relationship between built environment (BE) and travel behaviour (TB) has been studied in a number of cases, using several methods - aggregate and disaggregate approaches - and different focuses – trip frequency, automobile use, and vehicle miles travelled and so on. Definitely, travel is generated by the need to undertake activities and obtain services, and there is a general consensus that urban components affect TB. However researches are still needed to better understand which components of the travel behaviour are affected most and by which of the urban components. In order to fill the gap in the research, the present dissertation faced two main objectives: (1) To contribute to the better understanding of the relationship between travel demand and urban environment. And (2) To develop an econometric model for estimating travel demand with urban environment attributes. With this purpose, the present thesis faced an exhaustive research and computation of land-use variables in order to find the best representation of BE for modelling trip frequency. In particular two empirical analyses are carried out: 1. Estimation of three dimensions of travel demand using dimensions of urban environment. We compare different travel dimensions and geographical scales, and we measure self-selection contribution following the joint models. 2. Develop a hybrid model, integrated latent variable and discrete choice model. The implementation of hybrid models is new in the analysis of land-use and travel behaviour. BE and TB explicitly interact and allow richness information about a specific individual decision process For all empirical analysis is used a data-base from a survey conducted in 2006 and 2007 in Madrid. Spatial attributes describing neighbourhood environment are derived from different data sources: National Institute of Statistics-INE (Administrative: municipality and district) and GIS (circular units). INE provides raw data for such spatial units as: municipality and district. The construction of census units is trivial as the census bureau provides tables that readily define districts and municipalities. The construction of circular units requires us to determine the radius and associate the spatial information to our households. The first empirical part analyzes trip frequency by applying an ordered logit model. In this part is studied the effect of socio-economic, transport and land use characteristics on two travel dimensions: trip frequency and type of tour. In particular the land use is defined in terms of type of neighbourhoods and types of dwellers. Three neighbourhood representations are explored, and described three for constructing neighbourhood attributes. In particular administrative units are examined to represent neighbourhood and circular – unit representation. Ordered logit models are applied, while ordinal logit models are well-known, an intensive work for constructing a spatial attributes was carried out. On the other hand, the second empirical analysis consists of the development of an innovative econometric model that considers a latent variable called “propensity to travel”, and choice model is the choice of type of tour. The first two specifications of ordinal models help to estimate this latent variable. The latent variable is unobserved but the manifestation is called “indicators”, then the probability of choosing an alternative of tour is conditional to the probability of latent variable and type of tour. Since latent variable is unknown we fit the integral over its distribution. Four “sets of best variables” are specified, following the specification obtained from the correlation analysis. The results evidence that the relative importance of SE variables versus BE variables depends on how BE variables are measured. We found that each of these three spatial scales has its intangible qualities and drawbacks. Spatial scales play an important role on predicting travel demand due to the variability in measures at trip origin/destinations within the same administrative unit (municipality, district and so on). Larger units will produce less variation in data; but it does not affect certain variables, such as public transport supply, that are more significant at municipality level. By contrast, land-use measures are more efficient at district level. Self-selection in this context, is weak. Thus, the influence of BE attributes is true. The results of the hybrid model show that unobserved factors affect the choice of tour complexity. The latent variable used in this model is propensity to travel that is explained by socioeconomic aspects and neighbourhood attributes. The results show that neighbourhood attributes have indeed a significant impact on the choice of the type of tours either directly and through the propensity to travel. The propensity to travel has a different impact depending on the structure of each tour and increases the probability of choosing more complex tours, such as tours with many intermediate stops. The integration of choice and latent variable model shows that omitting important perception and attitudes leads to inconsistent estimates. The results also indicate that goodness of fit improves by adding the latent variable in both sequential and simultaneous estimation. There are significant differences in the sensitivity to the latent variable across alternatives. In general, as expected, the hybrid models show a major improvement into the goodness of fit of the model, compared to a classical discrete choice model that does not incorporate latent effects. The integrated model leads to a more detailed analysis of the behavioural process. Summarizing, the effect that built environment characteristics on trip frequency studied is deeply analyzed. In particular we tried to better understand how land use characteristics can be defined and measured and which of these measures do have really an impact on trip frequency. We also tried to test the superiority of HCM on this field. We can concluded that HCM shows a major improvement into the goodness of fit of the model, compared to classical discrete choice model that does not incorporate latent effects. And consequently, the application of HCM shows the importance of LV on the decision of tour complexity. People are more elastic to built environment attributes than level of services. Thus, policy implications must take place to develop more mixed areas, work-places in combination with commercial retails.

Assessing the passengers’ perception of implemented advanced management measures in bus service

The aim of this investigation is to evaluate the passenger?s perception of some attributes related to quality of bus services, and how this perception changes with the implementation of different measures. Surveys to passengers riding different bus lines were conducted in two scenarios: before the implementation of the measures and after the measures were implemented. The results of the passenger surveys were statistically analysed; then, an ordered logit model was used to analyse the differences between surveys thanks to the implemented measures. Finally, a factor analysis was done to identify the underlying unobserved factors (latent variables) that the respondents perceived

Projector Model for Efficient List-Mode Reconstruction in PET Scanners with Parallel Planar Detectors

We have developed a new projector model specifically tailored for fast list-mode tomographic reconstructions in Positron emission tomography (PET) scanners with parallel planar detectors. The model provides an accurate estimation of the probability distribution of coincidence events defined by pairs of scintillating crystals. This distribution is parameterized with 2D elliptical Gaussian functions defined in planes perpendicular to the main axis of the tube of response (TOR). The parameters of these Gaussian functions have been obtained by fitting Monte Carlo simulations that include positron range, acolinearity of gamma rays, as well as detector attenuation and scatter effects. The proposed model has been applied efficiently to list-mode reconstruction algorithms. Evaluation with Monte Carlo simulations over a rotating high resolution PET scanner indicates that this model allows to obtain better recovery to noise ratio in OSEM (ordered-subsets, expectation-maximization) reconstruction, if compared to list-mode reconstruction with symmetric circular Gaussian TOR model, and histogram-based OSEM with precalculated system matrix using Monte Carlo simulated models and symmetries.

Massively parallelizable list-mode reconstruction using a Monte Carlo-based elliptical Gaussian model

Purpose: A fully three-dimensional (3D) massively parallelizable list-mode ordered-subsets expectation-maximization (LM-OSEM) reconstruction algorithm has been developed for high-resolution PET cameras. System response probabilities are calculated online from a set of parameters derived from Monte Carlo simulations. The shape of a system response for a given line of response (LOR) has been shown to be asymmetrical around the LOR. This work has been focused on the development of efficient region-search techniques to sample the system response probabilities, which are suitable for asymmetric kernel models, including elliptical Gaussian models that allow for high accuracy and high parallelization efficiency. The novel region-search scheme using variable kernel models is applied in the proposed PET reconstruction algorithm. Methods: A novel region-search technique has been used to sample the probability density function in correspondence with a small dynamic subset of the field of view that constitutes the region of response (ROR). The ROR is identified around the LOR by searching for any voxel within a dynamically calculated contour. The contour condition is currently defined as a fixed threshold over the posterior probability, and arbitrary kernel models can be applied using a numerical approach. The processing of the LORs is distributed in batches among the available computing devices, then, individual LORs are processed within different processing units. In this way, both multicore and multiple many-core processing units can be efficiently exploited. Tests have been conducted with probability models that take into account the noncolinearity, positron range, and crystal penetration effects, that produced tubes of response with varying elliptical sections whose axes were a function of the crystal's thickness and angle of incidence of the given LOR. The algorithm treats the probability model as a 3D scalar field defined within a reference system aligned with the ideal LOR. Results: This new technique provides superior image quality in terms of signal-to-noise ratio as compared with the histogram-mode method based on precomputed system matrices available for a commercial small animal scanner. Reconstruction times can be kept low with the use of multicore, many-core architectures, including multiple graphic processing units. Conclusions: A highly parallelizable LM reconstruction method has been proposed based on Monte Carlo simulations and new parallelization techniques aimed at improving the reconstruction speed and the image signal-to-noise of a given OSEM algorithm. The method has been validated using simulated and real phantoms. A special advantage of the new method is the possibility of defining dynamically the cut-off threshold over the calculated probabilities thus allowing for a direct control on the trade-off between speed and quality during the reconstruction.

Proposal of a trust and reputation model to provide recommendation in open quality oriented environments

El auge y penetración de las nuevas tecnologías junto con la llamada Web Social están cambiando la forma en la que accedemos a la medicina. Cada vez más pacientes y profesionales de la medicina están creando y consumiendo recursos digitales de contenido clínico a través de Internet, surgiendo el problema de cómo asegurar la fiabilidad de estos recursos. Además, un nuevo concepto está apareciendo, el de pervasive healthcare o sanidad ubicua, motivado por pacientes que demandan un acceso a los servicios sanitarios en todo momento y en todo lugar. Este nuevo escenario lleva aparejado un problema de confianza en los proveedores de servicios sanitarios. Las plataformas de eLearning se están erigiendo como paradigma de esta nueva Medicina 2.0 ya que proveen un servicio abierto a la vez que controlado/supervisado a recursos digitales, y facilitan las interacciones y consultas entre usuarios, suponiendo una buena aproximación para esta sanidad ubicua. En estos entornos los problemas de fiabilidad y confianza pueden ser solventados mediante la implementación de mecanismos de recomendación de recursos y personas de manera confiable. Tradicionalmente las plataformas de eLearning ya cuentan con mecanismos de recomendación, si bien están más enfocados a la recomendación de recursos. Para la recomendación de usuarios es necesario acudir a mecanismos más elaborados como son los sistemas de confianza y reputación (trust and reputation) En ambos casos, tanto la recomendación de recursos como el cálculo de la reputación de los usuarios se realiza teniendo en cuenta criterios principalmente subjetivos como son las opiniones de los usuarios. En esta tesis doctoral proponemos un nuevo modelo de confianza y reputación que combina evaluaciones automáticas de los recursos digitales en una plataforma de eLearning, con las opiniones vertidas por los usuarios como resultado de las interacciones con otros usuarios o después de consumir un recurso. El enfoque seguido presenta la novedad de la combinación de una parte objetiva con otra subjetiva, persiguiendo mitigar el efecto de posibles castigos subjetivos por parte de usuarios malintencionados, a la vez que enriquecer las evaluaciones objetivas con información adicional acerca de la capacidad pedagógica del recurso o de la persona. El resultado son recomendaciones siempre adaptadas a los requisitos de los usuarios, y de la máxima calidad tanto técnica como educativa. Esta nueva aproximación requiere una nueva herramienta para su validación in-silico, al no existir ninguna aplicación que permita la simulación de plataformas de eLearning con mecanismos de recomendación de recursos y personas, donde además los recursos sean evaluados objetivamente. Este trabajo de investigación propone pues una nueva herramienta, basada en el paradigma de programación orientada a agentes inteligentes para el modelado de comportamientos complejos de usuarios en plataformas de eLearning. Además, la herramienta permite también la simulación del funcionamiento de este tipo de entornos dedicados al intercambio de conocimiento. La evaluación del trabajo propuesto en este documento de tesis se ha realizado de manera iterativa a lo largo de diferentes escenarios en los que se ha situado al sistema frente a una amplia gama de comportamientos de usuarios. Se ha comparado el rendimiento del modelo de confianza y reputación propuesto frente a dos modos de recomendación tradicionales: a) utilizando sólo las opiniones subjetivas de los usuarios para el cálculo de la reputación y por extensión la recomendación; y b) teniendo en cuenta sólo la calidad objetiva del recurso sin hacer ningún cálculo de reputación. Los resultados obtenidos nos permiten afirmar que el modelo desarrollado mejora la recomendación ofrecida por las aproximaciones tradicionales, mostrando una mayor flexibilidad y capacidad de adaptación a diferentes situaciones. Además, el modelo propuesto es capaz de asegurar la recomendación de nuevos usuarios entrando al sistema frente a la nula recomendación para estos usuarios presentada por el modo de recomendación predominante en otras plataformas que basan la recomendación sólo en las opiniones de otros usuarios. Por último, el paradigma de agentes inteligentes ha probado su valía a la hora de modelar plataformas virtuales complejas orientadas al intercambio de conocimiento, especialmente a la hora de modelar y simular el comportamiento de los usuarios de estos entornos. La herramienta de simulación desarrollada ha permitido la evaluación del modelo de confianza y reputación propuesto en esta tesis en una amplia gama de situaciones diferentes. ABSTRACT Internet is changing everything, and this revolution is especially present in traditionally offline spaces such as medicine. In recent years health consumers and health service providers are actively creating and consuming Web contents stimulated by the emergence of the Social Web. Reliability stands out as the main concern when accessing the overwhelming amount of information available online. Along with this new way of accessing the medicine, new concepts like ubiquitous or pervasive healthcare are appearing. Trustworthiness assessment is gaining relevance: open health provisioning systems require mechanisms that help evaluating individuals’ reputation in pursuit of introducing safety to these open and dynamic environments. Technical Enhanced Learning (TEL) -commonly known as eLearning- platforms arise as a paradigm of this Medicine 2.0. They provide an open while controlled/supervised access to resources generated and shared by users, enhancing what it is being called informal learning. TEL systems also facilitate direct interactions amongst users for consultation, resulting in a good approach to ubiquitous healthcare. The aforementioned reliability and trustworthiness problems can be faced by the implementation of mechanisms for the trusted recommendation of both resources and healthcare services providers. Traditionally, eLearning platforms already integrate recommendation mechanisms, although this recommendations are basically focused on providing an ordered classifications of resources. For users’ recommendation, the implementation of trust and reputation systems appears as the best solution. Nevertheless, both approaches base the recommendation on the information from the subjective opinions of other users of the platform regarding the resources or the users. In this PhD work a novel approach is presented for the recommendation of both resources and users within open environments focused on knowledge exchange, as it is the case of TEL systems for ubiquitous healthcare. The proposed solution adds the objective evaluation of the resources to the traditional subjective personal opinions to estimate the reputation of the resources and of the users of the system. This combined measure, along with the reliability of that calculation, is used to provide trusted recommendations. The integration of opinions and evaluations, subjective and objective, allows the model to defend itself against misbehaviours. Furthermore, it also allows ‘colouring’ cold evaluation values by providing additional quality information such as the educational capacities of a digital resource in an eLearning system. As a result, the recommendations are always adapted to user requirements, and of the maximum technical and educational quality. To our knowledge, the combination of objective assessments and subjective opinions to provide recommendation has not been considered before in the literature. Therefore, for the evaluation of the trust and reputation model defined in this PhD thesis, a new simulation tool will be developed following the agent-oriented programming paradigm. The multi-agent approach allows an easy modelling of independent and proactive behaviours for the simulation of users of the system, conforming a faithful resemblance of real users of TEL platforms. For the evaluation of the proposed work, an iterative approach have been followed, testing the performance of the trust and reputation model while providing recommendation in a varied range of scenarios. A comparison with two traditional recommendation mechanisms was performed: a) using only users’ past opinions about a resource and/or other users; and b) not using any reputation assessment and providing the recommendation considering directly the objective quality of the resources. The results show that the developed model improves traditional approaches at providing recommendations in Technology Enhanced Learning (TEL) platforms, presenting a higher adaptability to different situations, whereas traditional approaches only have good results under favourable conditions. Furthermore the promotion period mechanism implemented successfully helps new users in the system to be recommended for direct interactions as well as the resources created by them. On the contrary OnlyOpinions fails completely and new users are never recommended, while traditional approaches only work partially. Finally, the agent-oriented programming (AOP) paradigm has proven its validity at modelling users’ behaviours in TEL platforms. Intelligent software agents’ characteristics matched the main requirements of the simulation tool. The proactivity, sociability and adaptability of the developed agents allowed reproducing real users’ actions and attitudes through the diverse situations defined in the evaluation framework. The result were independent users, accessing to different resources and communicating amongst them to fulfil their needs, basing these interactions on the recommendations provided by the reputation engine.