Hybrid wind-diesel power plant valuation and optimization using real option theory and dynamic programming

El sistema de energía eólica-diesel híbrido tiene un gran potencial en la prestación de suministro de energía a comunidades remotas. En comparación con los sistemas tradicionales de diesel, las plantas de energía híbridas ofrecen grandes ventajas tales como el suministro de capacidad de energía extra para "microgrids", reducción de los contaminantes y emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero, y la cobertura del riesgo de aumento inesperado del precio del combustible. El principal objetivo de la presente tesis es proporcionar nuevos conocimientos para la evaluación y optimización de los sistemas de energía híbrido eólico-diesel considerando las incertidumbres. Dado que la energía eólica es una variable estocástica, ésta no puede ser controlada ni predecirse con exactitud. La naturaleza incierta del viento como fuente de energía produce serios problemas tanto para la operación como para la evaluación del valor del sistema de energía eólica-diesel híbrido. Por un lado, la regulación de la potencia inyectada desde las turbinas de viento es una difícil tarea cuando opera el sistema híbrido. Por otro lado, el bene.cio económico de un sistema eólico-diesel híbrido se logra directamente a través de la energía entregada a la red de alimentación de la energía eólica. Consecuentemente, la incertidumbre de los recursos eólicos incrementa la dificultad de estimar los beneficios globales en la etapa de planificación. La principal preocupación del modelo tradicional determinista es no tener en cuenta la incertidumbre futura a la hora de tomar la decisión de operación. Con lo cual, no se prevé las acciones operativas flexibles en respuesta a los escenarios futuros. El análisis del rendimiento y simulación por ordenador en el Proyecto Eólico San Cristóbal demuestra que la incertidumbre sobre la energía eólica, las estrategias de control, almacenamiento de energía, y la curva de potencia de aerogeneradores tienen un impacto significativo sobre el rendimiento del sistema. En la presente tesis, se analiza la relación entre la teoría de valoración de opciones y el proceso de toma de decisiones. La opción real se desarrolla con un modelo y se presenta a través de ejemplos prácticos para evaluar el valor de los sistemas de energía eólica-diesel híbridos. Los resultados muestran que las opciones operacionales pueden aportar un valor adicional para el sistema de energía híbrida, cuando esta flexibilidad operativa se utiliza correctamente. Este marco se puede aplicar en la optimización de la operación a corto plazo teniendo en cuenta la naturaleza dependiente de la trayectoria de la política óptima de despacho, dadas las plausibles futuras realizaciones de la producción de energía eólica. En comparación con los métodos de valoración y optimización existentes, el resultado del caso de estudio numérico muestra que la política de operación resultante del modelo de optimización propuesto presenta una notable actuación en la reducción del con- sumo total de combustible del sistema eólico-diesel. Con el .n de tomar decisiones óptimas, los operadores de plantas de energía y los gestores de éstas no deben centrarse sólo en el resultado directo de cada acción operativa, tampoco deberían tomar decisiones deterministas. La forma correcta es gestionar dinámicamente el sistema de energía teniendo en cuenta el valor futuro condicionado en cada opción frente a la incertidumbre. ABSTRACT Hybrid wind-diesel power systems have a great potential in providing energy supply to remote communities. Compared with the traditional diesel systems, hybrid power plants are providing many advantages such as providing extra energy capacity to the micro-grid, reducing pollution and greenhouse-gas emissions, and hedging the risk of unexpected fuel price increases. This dissertation aims at providing novel insights for assessing and optimizing hybrid wind-diesel power systems considering the related uncertainties. Since wind power can neither be controlled nor accurately predicted, the energy harvested from a wind turbine may be considered a stochastic variable. This uncertain nature of wind energy source results in serious problems for both the operation and value assessment of the hybrid wind-diesel power system. On the one hand, regulating the uncertain power injected from wind turbines is a difficult task when operating the hybrid system. On the other hand, the economic profit of a hybrid wind-diesel system is achieved directly through the energy delivered to the power grid from the wind energy. Therefore, the uncertainty of wind resources has increased the difficulty in estimating the total benefits in the planning stage. The main concern of the traditional deterministic model is that it does not consider the future uncertainty when making the dispatch decision. Thus, it does not provide flexible operational actions in response to the uncertain future scenarios. Performance analysis and computer simulation on the San Cristobal Wind Project demonstrate that the wind power uncertainty, control strategies, energy storage, and the wind turbine power curve have a significant impact on the performance of the system. In this dissertation, the relationship between option pricing theory and decision making process is discussed. A real option model is developed and presented through practical examples for assessing the value of hybrid wind-diesel power systems. Results show that operational options can provide additional value to the hybrid power system when this operational flexibility is correctly utilized. This framework can be applied in optimizing short term dispatch decisions considering the path-dependent nature of the optimal dispatch policy, given the plausible future realizations of the wind power production. Comparing with the existing valuation and optimization methods, result from numerical example shows that the dispatch policy resulting from the proposed optimization model exhibits a remarkable performance in minimizing the total fuel consumption of the wind-diesel system. In order to make optimal decisions, power plant operators and managers should not just focus on the direct outcome of each operational action; neither should they make deterministic decisions. The correct way is to dynamically manage the power system by taking into consideration the conditional future value in each option in response to the uncertainty.

Development of a grid connected micro wind generator. A practical activity for the course on electric generation with wind energy

This paper describes a practical activity, part of the renewable energy course where the students have to build their own complete wind generation system, including blades, PM-generator, power electronics and control. After connecting the system to the electric grid the system has been tested during real wind scenarios. The paper will describe the electric part of the work surface-mounted permanent magnet machine design criteria as well as the power electronics part for the power control and the grid connection. A Kalman filter is used for the voltage phase estimation and current commands obtained in order to control active and reactive power. The connection to the grid has been done and active and reactive power has been measured in the system.

Compensación de energía reactiva en los servicios auxiliares de una central térmica

El proyecto tiene como objeto analizar desde el punto de vista técnico-económico las posibilidades para mejorar el factor de potencia en los consumos auxiliares de la Central térmica Litoral, perteneciente a Endesa Generación. Debido a un cambio normativo, las tarifas de acceso a las redes de transporte y distribución de energía eléctrica aplicarán ahora también a los consumos propios de las empresas productoras de electricidad dentro del ámbito de aplicación de las tarifas de acceso. Como la energía reactiva se facturará en función del factor de potencia se propone para su compensación la instalación de bancos de condensadores para mejorar el mismo y disminuir la penalización. Para el dimensionamiento de los bancos se han utilizado los consumos horarios de los años 2012 y 2013 de tres fronteras: grupos 1 y 2 de 400 kV y los transformadores auxiliares de arranque (OTAAs) de 6 kV , teniendo en cuenta las peculiaridades de una Central de Generación, ya que sólo serán objeto de estudio (a efecto de penalizaciones) las horas en las que el grupo está parado o arrancando. El resultado final muestra la diferencia en cuanto a los periodos de amortización de una instalación con generación y sin generación, siendo esta última más rentable económicamente. ABSTRACT The goal of this project is to analyse the possibilities to better the power factor in the auxiliary consumption of the Thermal Plant Litoral from an economic and technical viewpoint. Due to a normative changes, the access price rates for the transportation and distribution of electrical energy, will also apply now to the electricity productive companies own consumption within the scope of the access rate. Since reactive power is invoiced based on the potency factor, we propose the installation of capacitor banks to improve the aforementioned power factor as compensation so as to reduce sanctions. We have used the time profiles from 2012 and 2013 to dimension the banks, using 3 borders: Group 1 and 2 (400 kV) and the auxiliary starter transformers (OTAA's) of 6kV, taking into account the special characteristics of a Generation Plant , since we will only study the hours that the group was shut down or powering up (since these are what the penalties cover). The final result shows the difference in regards to repayment periods for both generating and nongenerating installation, being the aforesaid the most economically worthwile of the two

Optimal design of AC EMI filters with damping networks and effect on the systems power factor

The cutoff frequencies of an EMI filter are normally given by the noise attenuation requirements the filter has to fulfill. In order to select the component values of the filter elements, i.e. inductances and capacitances, an additional design criterium is needed. In this paper the effect of the EMI filter input and output impedances are considered. The input impedance influences the filters effect on the system displacement power factor and the output impedance plays a key role in the system stability. The effect of filter element values, the number of filter stages as well as additional damping networks are considered and a design procedure is provided. For this analysis a two-port description of the input filters employing ABCD-parameters is used.

Testing a GIS-based methodology for optimal location of Pumped Storage power plants in Norway

Europe needs to restructure its energy system. The aim to decrease the reliance on fossil fuels to a higher dependence on renewable energy has now been imposed by The European Commission. In order to achieve this goal there is a great interest in Norway to become "The Green Battery of Europe". In the pursuit of this goal a GIS-tool was created to investigate the pump storage potential in Norway. The tool searches for possible connections between existing reservoirs and dams with the criteria selected by the user. The aim of this thesis was to test the tool and see if the results suggested were plausible, develop a cost calculation method for the PSH lines, and make suggestions for further development of the tool. During the process the tool presented many non-feasible pumped storage hydropower (PSH) connections. The area of Telemark was chosen for the more detailed study. The results were discussed and some improvements were suggested for further development of the tool. Also a sensitivity test was done to see which of the parameters set by the user are the most relevant for the PSH connection suggestion. From a range of the most promising PSH plants suggested by the tool, the one between Songavatn and Totak was chosen for a case study, where there already exists a power plant between both reservoirs. A new Pumped Storage Plant was designed with a power production of 1200 MW. There are still many topics open to discussion, such as how to deal with environmental restrictions, or how to deal with inflows and outflows of the reservoirs from the existing power plants. Consequently the GIS-tool can be a very useful tool to establish the best possible connections between existing reservoirs and dams, but it still needs a deep study and the creation of new parameters for the user.

On the leakage-power modeling for optimal server operation

Leakage power consumption is a com- ponent of the total power consumption in data cen- ters that is not traditionally considered in the set- point temperature of the room. However, the effect of this power component, increased with temperature, can determine the savings associated with the careful management of the cooling system, as well as the re- liability of the system. The work presented in this paper detects the need of addressing leakage power in order to achieve substantial savings in the energy consumption of servers. In particular, our work shows that, by a careful detection and management of two working regions (low and high impact of thermal- dependent leakage), energy consumption of the data- center can be optimized by a reduction of the cooling budget.

The use of geographic information systems for the optimal location of biomass power plants in the Madrid Community (Spain)

This article has been extracted from the results of a thesis entitled “Potential bioelectricity production of the Madrid Community Agricultural Regions based on rye and triticale biomass.” The aim was, first, to quantify the potential of rye (Secale Cereale L.) and triticale ( Triticosecale Aestivum L.) biomass in each of the Madrid Community agricultural regions, and second, to locate the most suitable areas for the installation of power plants using biomass. At least 17,339.9 t d.m. of rye and triticale would be required to satisfy the biomass needs of a 2.2 MW power plant, (considering an efficiency of 21.5%, 8,000 expected operating hours/year and a biomass LCP of 4,060 kcal/kg for both crops), and 2,577 ha would be used (which represent 2.79% of the Madrid Community fallow dry land surface). Biomass yields that could be achieved in Madrid Community using 50% of the fallow dry land surface (46,150 ha representing 5.75% of the Community area), based on rye and triticale crops, are estimated at 84,855, 74,906, 70,109, 50,791, 13,481, and 943 t annually for the Campiña, Vegas, Sur Occidental, Área Metropolitana, Lozoya-Somosierra, and Guadarrama regions. The latter represents a bioelectricity potential of 10.77, 9.5, 8.9, 6.44, 1.71, and 0.12 MW, respectively.

EMI filter design of a three-phase buck-type rectifier for aircraft applications

An EMI filter for a three-phase buck-type medium power pulse-width modulation rectifier is designed. This filter considers differential mode noise and complies with MIL-STD- 461E for the frequency range of 10kHz to 10MHz. In industrial applications, the frequency range of the standard starts at 150kHz and the designer typically uses a switching frequency of 28kHz because the fifth harmonic is out of the range. This approach is not valid for aircraft applications. In order to design the switching frequency in aircraft applications, the power losses in the semiconductors and the weight of the reactive components should be considered. The proposed design is based on a harmonic analysis of the rectifier input current and an analytical study of the input filter. The classical industrial design does not consider the inductive effect in the filter design because the grid frequency is 50/60Hz. However, in the aircraft applications, the grid frequency is 400Hz and the inductance cannot be neglected. The proposed design considers the inductance and the capacitance effect of the filter in order to obtain unitary power factor at full power. In the optimization process, several filters are designed for different switching frequencies of the converter. In addition, designs from single to five stages are considered. The power losses of the converter plus the EMI filter are estimated at these switching frequencies. Considering overall losses and minimal filter volume, the optimal switching frequency is selected

New Considerations in the Input Filter Design of a Three-Phase Buck-Type PWM Rectifier for Aircraft Applications

An EMI filter for a three-phase buck-type medium power pulse-width modulation rectifier is designed. This filter considers differential mode noise and complies with MIL-STD-461E for the frequency range of 10kHz to 10MHz. In industrial applications, the frequency range of the standard starts at 150kHz and the designer typically uses a switching frequency of 28kHz because the fifth harmonic is out of the range. This approach is not valid for aircraft applications. In order to design the switching frequency in aircraft applications, the power losses in the semiconductors and the weight of the reactive components should be considered. The proposed design is based on a harmonic analysis of the rectifier input current and an analytical study of the input filter. The classical industrial design does not consider the inductive effect in the filter design because the grid frequency is 50/60Hz. However, in the aircraft applications, the grid frequency is 400Hz and the inductance cannot be neglected. The proposed design considers the inductance and the capacitance effect of the filter in order to obtain unitary power factor at full power. In the optimization process, several filters are designed for different switching frequencies of the converter. In addition, designs from single to five stages are considered. The power losses of the converter plus the EMI filter are estimated at these switching frequencies. Considering overall losses and minimal filter volume, the optimal switching frequency is selected.

Power system stability of a small sized isolated network supplied by a combined wind-pumped storage generation system: a case study in the Canary Islands

Massive integration of renewable energy sources in electrical power systems of remote islands is a subject of current interest. The increasing cost of fossil fuels, transport costs to isolated sites and environmental concerns constitute a serious drawback to the use of conventional fossil fuel plants. In a weak electrical grid, as it is typical on an island, if a large amount of conventional generation is substituted by renewable energy sources, power system safety and stability can be compromised, in the case of large grid disturbances. In this work, a model for transient stability analysis of an isolated electrical grid exclusively fed from a combination of renewable energy sources has been studied. This new generation model will be installed in El Hierro Island, in Spain. Additionally, an operation strategy to coordinate the generation units (wind, hydro) is also established. Attention is given to the assessment of inertial energy and reactive current to guarantee power system stability against large disturbances. The effectiveness of the proposed strategy is shown by means of simulation results.

Optimal Design of Envelope Amplifier Based on Linear Assisted Buck Converter

Envelope Tracking (ET) and Envelope Elimination and Restoration (EER) are two techniques that have been used as a solution for highly efficient linear RF Power Amplifiers (PA). In both techniques the most important part is a dc-dc converter called envelope amplifier that has to supply the RF PA with variable voltage. Besides high efficiency, its bandwidth is very important as well. Envelope amplifier based on parallel combination of a switching dc-dc converter and a linear regulator is an architecture that is widely used due to its simplicity. In this paper we discuss about theoretical limitations of this architecture regarding its efficiency and we demonstrate two possible way of its implementation. In order to derive the presented conclusions, a theoretical model of envelope amplifier's efficiency has been presented. Additionally, the benefits of the new emerging GaN technology for this application have been shown as well.

Statistical models for short-term wind power ramp forecasting

La predicción de energía eólica ha desempeñado en la última década un papel fundamental en el aprovechamiento de este recurso renovable, ya que permite reducir el impacto que tiene la naturaleza fluctuante del viento en la actividad de diversos agentes implicados en su integración, tales como el operador del sistema o los agentes del mercado eléctrico. Los altos niveles de penetración eólica alcanzados recientemente por algunos países han puesto de manifiesto la necesidad de mejorar las predicciones durante eventos en los que se experimenta una variación importante de la potencia generada por un parque o un conjunto de ellos en un tiempo relativamente corto (del orden de unas pocas horas). Estos eventos, conocidos como rampas, no tienen una única causa, ya que pueden estar motivados por procesos meteorológicos que se dan en muy diferentes escalas espacio-temporales, desde el paso de grandes frentes en la macroescala a procesos convectivos locales como tormentas. Además, el propio proceso de conversión del viento en energía eléctrica juega un papel relevante en la ocurrencia de rampas debido, entre otros factores, a la relación no lineal que impone la curva de potencia del aerogenerador, la desalineación de la máquina con respecto al viento y la interacción aerodinámica entre aerogeneradores. En este trabajo se aborda la aplicación de modelos estadísticos a la predicción de rampas a muy corto plazo. Además, se investiga la relación de este tipo de eventos con procesos atmosféricos en la macroescala. Los modelos se emplean para generar predicciones de punto a partir del modelado estocástico de una serie temporal de potencia generada por un parque eólico. Los horizontes de predicción considerados van de una a seis horas. Como primer paso, se ha elaborado una metodología para caracterizar rampas en series temporales. La denominada función-rampa está basada en la transformada wavelet y proporciona un índice en cada paso temporal. Este índice caracteriza la intensidad de rampa en base a los gradientes de potencia experimentados en un rango determinado de escalas temporales. Se han implementado tres tipos de modelos predictivos de cara a evaluar el papel que juega la complejidad de un modelo en su desempeño: modelos lineales autorregresivos (AR), modelos de coeficientes variables (VCMs) y modelos basado en redes neuronales (ANNs). Los modelos se han entrenado en base a la minimización del error cuadrático medio y la configuración de cada uno de ellos se ha determinado mediante validación cruzada. De cara a analizar la contribución del estado macroescalar de la atmósfera en la predicción de rampas, se ha propuesto una metodología que permite extraer, a partir de las salidas de modelos meteorológicos, información relevante para explicar la ocurrencia de estos eventos. La metodología se basa en el análisis de componentes principales (PCA) para la síntesis de la datos de la atmósfera y en el uso de la información mutua (MI) para estimar la dependencia no lineal entre dos señales. Esta metodología se ha aplicado a datos de reanálisis generados con un modelo de circulación general (GCM) de cara a generar variables exógenas que posteriormente se han introducido en los modelos predictivos. Los casos de estudio considerados corresponden a dos parques eólicos ubicados en España. Los resultados muestran que el modelado de la serie de potencias permitió una mejora notable con respecto al modelo predictivo de referencia (la persistencia) y que al añadir información de la macroescala se obtuvieron mejoras adicionales del mismo orden. Estas mejoras resultaron mayores para el caso de rampas de bajada. Los resultados también indican distintos grados de conexión entre la macroescala y la ocurrencia de rampas en los dos parques considerados. Abstract One of the main drawbacks of wind energy is that it exhibits intermittent generation greatly depending on environmental conditions. Wind power forecasting has proven to be an effective tool for facilitating wind power integration from both the technical and the economical perspective. Indeed, system operators and energy traders benefit from the use of forecasting techniques, because the reduction of the inherent uncertainty of wind power allows them the adoption of optimal decisions. Wind power integration imposes new challenges as higher wind penetration levels are attained. Wind power ramp forecasting is an example of such a recent topic of interest. The term ramp makes reference to a large and rapid variation (1-4 hours) observed in the wind power output of a wind farm or portfolio. Ramp events can be motivated by a broad number of meteorological processes that occur at different time/spatial scales, from the passage of large-scale frontal systems to local processes such as thunderstorms and thermally-driven flows. Ramp events may also be conditioned by features related to the wind-to-power conversion process, such as yaw misalignment, the wind turbine shut-down and the aerodynamic interaction between wind turbines of a wind farm (wake effect). This work is devoted to wind power ramp forecasting, with special focus on the connection between the global scale and ramp events observed at the wind farm level. The framework of this study is the point-forecasting approach. Time series based models were implemented for very short-term prediction, this being characterised by prediction horizons up to six hours ahead. As a first step, a methodology to characterise ramps within a wind power time series was proposed. The so-called ramp function is based on the wavelet transform and it provides a continuous index related to the ramp intensity at each time step. The underlying idea is that ramps are characterised by high power output gradients evaluated under different time scales. A number of state-of-the-art time series based models were considered, namely linear autoregressive (AR) models, varying-coefficient models (VCMs) and artificial neural networks (ANNs). This allowed us to gain insights into how the complexity of the model contributes to the accuracy of the wind power time series modelling. The models were trained in base of a mean squared error criterion and the final set-up of each model was determined through cross-validation techniques. In order to investigate the contribution of the global scale into wind power ramp forecasting, a methodological proposal to identify features in atmospheric raw data that are relevant for explaining wind power ramp events was presented. The proposed methodology is based on two techniques: principal component analysis (PCA) for atmospheric data compression and mutual information (MI) for assessing non-linear dependence between variables. The methodology was applied to reanalysis data generated with a general circulation model (GCM). This allowed for the elaboration of explanatory variables meaningful for ramp forecasting that were utilized as exogenous variables by the forecasting models. The study covered two wind farms located in Spain. All the models outperformed the reference model (the persistence) during both ramp and non-ramp situations. Adding atmospheric information had a noticeable impact on the forecasting performance, specially during ramp-down events. Results also suggested different levels of connection between the ramp occurrence at the wind farm level and the global scale.

Power density of a bare electrodynamic tether generator

The maximum performance of bare electrodynamic tethers as power generating systems under OML-theory is analyzed. Results show that best performance in terms of power density is achieved by designing the tether in such a way to increase ohmic impedance with respect to plasma contact impedance, hence favoring longer and thinner tethers. In such condition the corresponding optimal value of the load impedance is seen to approach the ohmic impedance of the conducting tether. At the other extreme, when plasma contact impedance dominates (which is not optimal but can be relevant for some applications) optimum power generation is found by matching the load impedance with an effective tether-plasma contact impedance whose expression is derived.

Optimal water allocation in shortage situations as applied to an irrigation community.

This work studies the most beneficial way of allocating water in an irrigation community in water shortage situations. Therefore, it proposes that the irrigation surface area be divided into homogeneous zones, each with a beneficial relationship with respect to the water applied. The mathematical formula that enables one to obtain the optimal quota for the users or irrigation community as a whole has been found for individual relations of a quadratic or power type, and these have yielded different and complementary characteristics. Dimensionless variables have been used to display the results, and to compare with other alternative allocation rules such as the proportional rule, referencing the situation without water restrictions. As a result, for each water shortage situation, the water that is allocated to each user is obtained, together with the losses in individual income and the losses for the community as a whole. Furthermore, a proposal is put forth for establishing the marginal benefit from the water available, which could be of interest in enabling each community to analyze whether it is in its best interest to invest in increasing the resource, or to sell the resource to other users. Finally, an example is given to demonstrate how the method works and to show that, when the differences between the production schemes are considered, the differences in benefit reduction between the proportional allocation and the optimal allocation are also sizeable. Read More: http://ascelibrary.org/doi/abs/10.1061/(ASCE)IR.1943-4774.0000667

Mission profile based optimization of a wearable power system

A Wearable Power System (WPS) is a portable power source utilized primarily to power the modern soldier’s electronic equipment. Such a system has to satisfy output power demands in the range of 20 W...200 W, specified as a 4-day mission profile and has a weight limit of 4 kg. To meet these demands, an optimization of a WPS, comprising an internal combustion (IC) engine, permanent magnetic three-phase electrical motor/generator, inverter, Li-batteries, DC-DC converters, and controller, is performed in this paper. The mechanical energy extracted from the fuel by IC engine is transferred to the generator that is used to recharge the battery and provide the power to the electrical output load. The main objectives are to select the engine, fuel and battery type, to match the weight of fuel and the number of battery cells, to find the optimal working point of engine and to minimize the system weight. To provide the second output voltage level of 14 VDC, a separate DC-DC converter is connected between the battery and the load, and optimized for the specified mission profile. A prototype of the WPS based on the optimization presented in the paper results in a total system weight of 3.9 kg and fulfils the mission profile.