Exploring the feasibility of integrating water issues into the CAPRI model

Although numerous modelling efforts have integrated food and water considerations at the farm or river basin level, very few agro-economic models are able to jointly assess water and food policies at the global level. The present report explores the feasibility of integrating water considerations into the CAPRI model. First, a literature review of modelling approaches integrating food and water issues has been conducted. Three agro-economic models, IMPACT, WATERSIM and GLOBIOM, have been analysed in detail. In addition, biophysical and hydrological models estimating agricultural water use have also been studied, in particular the global hydrological model WATERGAP and the LISFLOOD model. Thanks to the programming approach of its supply module, CAPRI shows a high potentiality to integrate environmental indicators as well as to enter new resource constraints (land potentially irrigated, irrigation water) and input-output relationships. At least in theory, the activity-based approach of the regional programming model in CAPRI allows differentiating between rainfed and irrigated activities. The suggested approach to include water into the CAPRI model involves creating an irrigation module and a water use module. The development of the CAPRI water module will enable to provide scientific assessment on agricultural water use within the EU and to analyze agricultural pressures on water resources. The feasibility of the approach has been tested in a pilot case study including two NUTS 2 regions (Andalucia in Spain and Midi-Pyrenees in France). Preliminary results are presented, highlighting the interrelations between water and agricultural developments in Europe. As a next step, it is foreseen to further develop the CAPRI water module to account for competition between agricultural and non-agricultural water use. This will imply building a water use sub-module to compute water use balances.

Concrete Swelling in Existing Dams

Several chemical reactions are able to produce swelling of concrete for decades after its initial curing, a problem that affects a considerable number of concrete dams around the world. Principia has had several contracts to study this problem in recent years, which have required reviewing the state-of-the-art, adopting appropriate mathematical descriptions, programming them into user routines in Abaqus, determining model parameters on the basis of some parts of the dams’ monitored histories, ensuring reliability using some other parts, and finally predicting the future evolution of the dams and their safety margins. The paper describes some of the above experience, including the programming of sophisticated non-isotropic swelling models, that must be compatible with cracking and other nonlinearities involved in concrete behaviour. The applications concentrate on two specific cases, an archgravity dam and a double-curvature arch dam, both with a long history of concrete swelling and which, interestingly, entailed different degrees of success in the modelling efforts

Stability and mechanical evaluation of bovine pericardium cross-linked with polyurethane prepolymer in aqueous medium

The present study investigates the potential use of non-catalyzed water-soluble blocked polyurethane prepolymer (PUP) as a bifunctional cross-linker for collagenous scaffolds. The effect of concentration (5, 10, 15 and 20%), time (4, 6, 12 and 24 h), medium volume (50, 100, 200 and 300%) and pH (7.4, 8.2, 9 and 10) over stability, microstructure and tensile mechanical behavior of acellular pericardial matrix was studied. The cross-linking index increased up to 81% while the denaturation temperature increased up to 12 °C after PUP crosslinking. PUP-treated scaffold resisted the collagenase degradation (0.167 ± 0.14 mmol/g of liberated amine groups vs. 598 ± 60 mmol/g for non-cross-linked matrix). The collagen fiber network was coated with PUP while viscoelastic properties were altered after cross-linking. The treatment of the pericardial scaffold with PUP allows (i) different densities of cross-linking depending of the process parameters and (ii) tensile properties similar to glutaraldehyde method.

Modelling of chloride transport in non-saturated concrete : from microscale to macroscale

Corrosion of steel bars embedded in concrete has a great influence on structural performance and durability of reinforced concrete. Chloride penetration is considered to be a primary cause of concrete deterioration in a vast majority of structures. Therefore, modelling of chloride penetration into concrete has become an area of great interest. The present work focuses on modelling of chloride transport in concrete. The differential macroscopic equations which govern the problem were derived from the equations at the microscopic scale by comparing the porous network with a single equivalent pore whose properties are the same as the average properties of the real porous network. The resulting transport model, which accounts for diffusion, migration, advection, chloride binding and chloride precipitation, consists of three coupled differential equations. The first equation models the transport of chloride ions, while the other two model the flow of the pore water and the heat transfer. In order to calibrate the model, the material parameters to determine experimentally were identified. The differential equations were solved by means of the finite element method. The classical Galerkin method was employed for the pore solution flow and the heat transfer equations, while the streamline upwind Petrov Galerkin method was adopted for the transport equation in order to avoid spatial instabilities for advection dominated problems. The finite element codes are implemented in Matlab® . To retrieve a good understanding of the influence of each variable and parameter, a detailed sensitivity analysis of the model was carried out. In order to determine the diffusive and hygroscopic properties of the studied concretes, as well as their chloride binding capacity, an experimental analysis was performed. The model was successfully compared with experimental data obtained from an offshore oil platform located in Brazil. Moreover, apart from the main objectives, numerous results were obtained throughout this work. For instance, several diffusion coefficients and the relation between them are discussed. It is shown how the electric field set up between the ionic species depends on the gradient of the species’ concentrations. Furthermore, the capillary hysteresis effects are illustrated by a proposed model, which leads to the determination of several microstructure properties, such as the pore size distribution and the tortuosity-connectivity of the porous network. El fenómeno de corrosión del acero de refuerzo embebido en el hormigón ha tenido gran influencia en estructuras de hormigón armado, tanto en su funcionalidad estructural como en aspectos de durabilidad. La penetración de cloruros en el interior del hormigón esta considerada como el factor principal en el deterioro de la gran mayoría de estructuras. Por lo tanto, la modelización numérica de dicho fenómeno ha generado gran interés. El presente trabajo de investigación se centra en la modelización del transporte de cloruros en el interior del hormigón. Las ecuaciones diferenciales que gobiernan los fenómenos a nivel macroscópico se deducen de ecuaciones planteadas a nivel microscópico. Esto se obtiene comparando la red porosa con un poro equivalente, el cual mantiene las mismas propiedades de la red porosa real. El modelo está constituido por tres ecuaciones diferenciales acopladas que consideran el transporte de cloruros, el flujo de la solución de poro y la transferencia de calor. Con estas ecuaciones se tienen en cuenta los fenómenos de difusión, migración, advección, combinación y precipitación de cloruros. El análisis llevado a cabo en este trabajo ha definido los parámetros necesarios para calibrar el modelo. De acuerdo con ellas, se seleccionaron los ensayos experimentales a realizar. Las ecuaciones diferenciales se resolvieron mediante el método de elementos finitos. El método clásico de Galerkin se empleó para solucionar las ecuaciones de flujo de la solución de poro y de la transferencia de calor, mientras que el método streamline upwind Petrov-Galerkin se utilizó para resolver la ecuación de transporte de cloruros con la finalidad de evitar inestabilidades espaciales en problemas con advección dominante. El código de elementos finitos está implementado en Matlab® . Con el objetivo de facilitar la comprensión del grado de influencia de cada variable y parámetro, se realizó un análisis de sensibilidad detallado del modelo. Se llevó a cabo una campaña experimental sobre los hormigones estudiados, con el objeto de obtener sus propiedades difusivas, químicas e higroscópicas. El modelo se contrastó con datos experimentales obtenidos en una plataforma petrolera localizada en Brasil. Las simulaciones numéricas corroboraron los datos experimentales. Además, durante el desarrollo de la investigación se obtuvieron resultados paralelos a los planteados inicialmente. Por ejemplo, el análisis de diferentes coeficientes de difusión y la relación entre ellos. Así como también se observó que el campo eléctrico establecido entre las especies iónicas disueltas en la solución de poro depende del gradiente de concentración de las mismas. Los efectos de histéresis capilar son expresados por el modelo propuesto, el cual conduce a la determinación de una serie de propiedades microscópicas, tales como la distribución del tamaño de poro, además de la tortuosidad y conectividad de la red porosa.

Comparing linear and non linear wind flow models

Assessing wind conditions on complex terrain has become a hard task as terrain complexity increases. That is why there is a need to extrapolate in a reliable manner some wind parameters that determine wind farms viability such as annual average wind speed at all hub heights as well as turbulence intensities. The development of these tasks began in the early 90´s with the widely used linear model WAsP and WAsP Engineering especially designed for simple terrain with remarkable results on them but not so good on complex orographies. Simultaneously non-linearized Navier Stokes solvers have been rapidly developed in the last decade through CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) codes allowing simulating atmospheric boundary layer flows over steep complex terrain more accurately reducing uncertainties. This paper describes the features of these models by validating them through meteorological masts installed in a highly complex terrain. The study compares the results of the mentioned models in terms of wind speed and turbulence intensity.

Improving the management of water and nitrogen resources in cropping systems by using simulation models

Los modelos de simulación de cultivos permiten analizar varias combinaciones de laboreo-rotación y explorar escenarios de manejo. El modelo DSSAT fue evaluado bajo condiciones de secano en un experimento de campo de 16 años en la semiárida España central. Se evaluó el efecto del sistema de laboreo y las rotaciones basadas en cereales de invierno, en el rendimiento del cultivo y la calidad del suelo. Los modelos CERES y CROPGRO se utilizaron para simular el crecimiento y rendimiento del cultivo, mientras que el modelo DSSAT CENTURY se utilizó en las simulaciones de SOC y SN. Tanto las observaciones de campo como las simulaciones con CERES-Barley, mostraron que el rendimiento en grano de la cebada era mas bajo para el cereal continuo (BB) que para las rotaciones de veza (VB) y barbecho (FB) en ambos sistemas de laboreo. El modelo predijo más nitrógeno disponible en el laboreo convencional (CT) que en el no laboreo (NT) conduciendo a un mayor rendimiento en el CT. El SOC y el SN en la capa superficial del suelo, fueron mayores en NT que en CT, y disminuyeron con la profundidad en los valores tanto observados como simulados. Las mejores combinaciones para las condiciones de secano estudiadas fueron CT-VB y CT-FB, pero CT presentó menor contenido en SN y SOC que NT. El efecto beneficioso del NT en SOC y SN bajo condiciones Mediterráneas semiáridas puede ser identificado por observaciones de campo y por simulaciones de modelos de cultivos. La simulación del balance de agua en sistemas de cultivo es una herramienta útil para estudiar como el agua puede ser utilizado eficientemente. La comparación del balance de agua de DSSAT , con una simple aproximación “tipping bucket”, con el modelo WAVE más mecanicista, el cual integra la ecuación de Richard , es un potente método para valorar el funcionamiento del modelo. Los parámetros de suelo fueron calibrados usando el método de optimización global Simulated Annealing (SA). Un lisímetro continuo de pesada en suelo desnudo suministró los valores observados de drenaje y evapotranspiración (ET) mientras que el contenido de agua en el suelo (SW) fue suministrado por sensores de capacitancia. Ambos modelos funcionaron bien después de la optimización de los parámetros de suelo con SA, simulando el balance de agua en el suelo para el período de calibración. Para el período de validación, los modelos optimizados predijeron bien el contenido de agua en el suelo y la evaporación del suelo a lo largo del tiempo. Sin embargo, el drenaje fue predicho mejor con WAVE que con DSSAT, el cual presentó mayores errores en los valores acumulados. Esto podría ser debido a la naturaleza mecanicista de WAVE frente a la naturaleza más funcional de DSSAT. Los buenos resultados de WAVE indican que, después de la calibración, este puede ser utilizado como "benchmark" para otros modelos para periodos en los que no haya medidas de campo del drenaje. El funcionamiento de DSSAT-CENTURY en la simulación de SOC y N depende fuertemente del proceso de inicialización. Se propuso como método alternativo (Met.2) la inicialización de las fracciones de SOC a partir de medidas de mineralización aparente del suelo (Napmin). El Met.2 se comparó con el método de inicialización de Basso et al. (2011) (Met.1), aplicando ambos métodos a un experimento de campo de 4 años en un área en regadío de España central. Nmin y Napmin fueron sobreestimados con el Met.1, ya que la fracción estable obtenida (SOC3) en las capas superficiales del suelo fue más baja que con Met.2. El N lixiviado simulado fue similar en los dos métodos, con buenos resultados en los tratamientos de barbecho y cebada. El Met.1 subestimó el SOC en la capa superficial del suelo cuando se comparó con una serie observada de 12 años. El crecimiento y rendimiento del cultivo fueron adecuadamente simulados con ambos métodos, pero el N en la parte aérea de la planta y en el grano fueron sobreestimados con el Met.1. Los resultados variaron significativamente con las fracciones iniciales de SOC, resaltando la importancia del método de inicialización. El Met.2 ofrece una alternativa para la inicialización del modelo CENTURY, mejorando la simulación de procesos de N en el suelo. La continua emergencia de nuevas variedades de híbridos modernos de maíz limita la aplicación de modelos de simulación de cultivos, ya que estos nuevos híbridos necesitan ser calibrados en el campo para ser adecuados para su uso en los modelos. El desarrollo de relaciones basadas en la duración del ciclo, simplificaría los requerimientos de calibración facilitando la rápida incorporación de nuevos cultivares en DSSAT. Seis híbridos de maiz (FAO 300 hasta FAO 700) fueron cultivados en un experimento de campo de dos años en un área semiárida de regadío en España central. Los coeficientes genéticos fueron obtenidos secuencialmente, comenzando con los parámetros de desarrollo fenológico (P1, P2, P5 and PHINT), seguido de los parámetros de crecimiento del cultivo (G2 and G3). Se continuó el procedimiento hasta que la salida de las simulaciones estuvo en concordancia con las observaciones fenológicas de campo. Después de la calibración, los parámetros simulados se ajustaron bien a los parámetros observados, con bajos RMSE en todos los casos. Los P1 y P5 calibrados, incrementaron con la duración del ciclo. P1 fue una función lineal del tiempo térmico (TT) desde emergencia hasta floración y P5 estuvo linealmente relacionada con el TT desde floración a madurez. No hubo diferencias significativas en PHINT entre híbridos de FAO-500 a 700 , ya que tuvieron un número de hojas similar. Como los coeficientes fenológicos estuvieron directamente relacionados con la duración del ciclo, sería posible desarrollar rangos y correlaciones que permitan estimar dichos coeficientes a partir de la clasificación del ciclo. ABSTRACT Crop simulation models allow analyzing various tillage-rotation combinations and exploring management scenarios. DSSAT model was tested under rainfed conditions in a 16-year field experiment in semiarid central Spain. The effect of tillage system and winter cereal-based rotations on the crop yield and soil quality was evaluated. The CERES and CROPGRO models were used to simulate crop growth and yield, while the DSSAT CENTURY was used in the SOC and SN simulations. Both field observations and CERES-Barley simulations, showed that barley grain yield was lower for continuous cereal (BB) than for vetch (VB) and fallow (FB) rotations for both tillage systems. The model predicted higher nitrogen availability in the conventional tillage (CT) than in the no tillage (NT) leading to a higher yield in the CT. The SOC and SN in the top layer, were higher in NT than in CT, and decreased with depth in both simulated and observed values. The best combinations for the dry land conditions studied were CT-VB and CT-FB, but CT presented lower SN and SOC content than NT. The beneficial effect of NT on SOC and SN under semiarid Mediterranean conditions can be identified by field observations and by crop model simulations. The simulation of the water balance in cropping systems is a useful tool to study how water can be used efficiently. The comparison of DSSAT soil water balance, with a simpler “tipping bucket” approach, with the more mechanistic WAVE model, which integrates Richard’s equation, is a powerful method to assess model performance. The soil parameters were calibrated by using the Simulated Annealing (SA) global optimizing method. A continuous weighing lysimeter in a bare fallow provided the observed values of drainage and evapotranspiration (ET) while soil water content (SW) was supplied by capacitance sensors. Both models performed well after optimizing soil parameters with SA, simulating the soil water balance components for the calibrated period. For the validation period, the optimized models predicted well soil water content and soil evaporation over time. However, drainage was predicted better by WAVE than by DSSAT, which presented larger errors in the cumulative values. That could be due to the mechanistic nature of WAVE against the more functional nature of DSSAT. The good results from WAVE indicate that, after calibration, it could be used as benchmark for other models for periods when no drainage field measurements are available. The performance of DSSAT-CENTURY when simulating SOC and N strongly depends on the initialization process. Initialization of the SOC pools from apparent soil N mineralization (Napmin) measurements was proposed as alternative method (Met.2). Method 2 was compared to the Basso et al. (2011) initialization method (Met.1), by applying both methods to a 4-year field experiment in a irrigated area of central Spain. Nmin and Napmin were overestimated by Met.1, since the obtained stable pool (SOC3) in the upper layers was lower than from Met.2. Simulated N leaching was similar for both methods, with good results in fallow and barley treatments. Method 1 underestimated topsoil SOC when compared with a 12-year observed serial. Crop growth and yield were properly simulated by both methods, but N in shoots and grain were overestimated by Met.1. Results varied significantly with the initial SOC pools, highlighting the importance of the initialization procedure. Method 2 offers an alternative to initialize the CENTURY model, enhancing the simulation of soil N processes. The continuous emergence of new varieties of modern maize hybrids limits the application of crop simulation models, since these new hybrids should be calibrated in the field to be suitable for model use. The development of relationships based on the cycle duration, would simplify the calibration requirements facilitating the rapid incorporation of new cultivars into DSSAT. Six maize hybrids (FAO 300 through FAO 700) were grown in a 2-year field experiment in a semiarid irrigated area of central Spain. Genetic coefficients were obtained sequentially, starting with the phenological development parameters (P1, P2, P5 and PHINT), followed by the crop growth parameters (G2 and G3). The procedure was continued until the simulated outputs were in good agreement with the field phenological observations. After calibration, simulated parameters matched observed parameters well, with low RMSE in most cases. The calibrated P1 and P5 increased with the duration of the cycle. P1 was a linear function of the thermal time (TT) from emergence to silking and P5 was linearly related with the TT from silking to maturity . There were no significant differences in PHINT between hybrids from FAO-500 to 700 , as they had similar leaf number. Since phenological coefficients were directly related with the cycle duration, it would be possible to develop ranges and correlations which allow to estimate such coefficients from the cycle classification.

Testing of crop Models for Accurate Predictions of Evapotranspiration and crop Water Use

All crop models, whether site-specific or global-gridded and regardless of crop, simulate daily crop transpiration and soil evaporation during the crop life cycle, resulting in seasonal crop water use. Modelers use several methods for predicting daily potential evapotranspiration (ET), including FAO-56, Penman-Monteith, Priestley-Taylor, Hargreaves, full energy balance, and transpiration water efficiency. They use extinction equations to partition energy to soil evaporation or transpiration, depending on leaf area index. Most models simulate soil water balance and soil-root water supply for transpiration, and limit transpiration if water uptake is insufficient, and thereafter reduce dry matter production. Comparisons among multiple crop and global gridded models in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) show surprisingly large differences in simulated ET and crop water use for the same climatic conditions. Model intercomparisons alone are not enough to know which approaches are correct. There is an urgent need to test these models against field-observed data on ET and crop water use. It is important to test various ET modules/equations in a model platform where other aspects such as soil water balance and rooting are held constant, to avoid compensation caused by other parts of models. The CSM-CROPGRO model in DSSAT already has ET equations for Priestley-Taylor, Penman-FAO-24, Penman-Monteith-FAO-56, and an hourly energy balance approach. In this work, we added transpiration-efficiency modules to DSSAT and AgMaize models and tested the various ET equations against available data on ET, soil water balance, and season-long crop water use of soybean, fababean, maize, and other crops where runoff and deep percolation were known or zero. The different ET modules created considerable differences in predicted ET, growth, and yield.

A study of the mechanical behaviour of the human aortic artery by means of non-linear finite element models

En la presente tesis desarrollamos una estrategia para la simulación numérica del comportamiento mecánico de la aorta humana usando modelos de elementos finitos no lineales. Prestamos especial atención a tres aspectos claves relacionados con la biomecánica de los tejidos blandos. Primero, el análisis del comportamiento anisótropo característico de los tejidos blandos debido a las familias de fibras de colágeno. Segundo, el análisis del ablandamiento presentado por los vasos sanguíneos cuando estos soportan cargas fuera del rango de funcionamiento fisiológico. Y finalmente, la inclusión de las tensiones residuales en las simulaciones en concordancia con el experimento de apertura de ángulo. El análisis del daño se aborda mediante dos aproximaciones diferentes. En la primera aproximación se presenta una formulación de daño local con regularización. Esta formulación tiene dos ingredientes principales. Por una parte, usa los principios de la teoría de la fisura difusa para garantizar la objetividad de los resultados con diferentes mallas. Por otra parte, usa el modelo bidimensional de Hodge-Petruska para describir el comportamiento mesoscópico de los fibriles. Partiendo de este modelo mesoscópico, las propiedades macroscópicas de las fibras de colágeno son obtenidas a través de un proceso de homogenización. En la segunda aproximación se presenta un modelo de daño no-local enriquecido con el gradiente de la variable de daño. El modelo se construye a partir del enriquecimiento de la función de energía con un término que contiene el gradiente material de la variable de daño no-local. La inclusión de este término asegura una regularización implícita de la implementación por elementos finitos, dando lugar a resultados de las simulaciones que no dependen de la malla. La aplicabilidad de este último modelo a problemas de biomecánica se estudia por medio de una simulación de un procedimiento quirúrgico típico conocido como angioplastia de balón. In the present thesis we develop a framework for the numerical simulation of the mechanical behaviour of the human aorta using non-linear finite element models. Special attention is paid to three key aspects related to the biomechanics of soft tissues. First, the modelling of the characteristic anisotropic behaviour of the softue due to the collagen fibre families. Secondly, the modelling of damage-related softening that blood vessels exhibit when subjected to loads beyond their physiological range. And finally, the inclusion of the residual stresses in the simulations in accordance with the opening-angle experiment The modelling of damage is addressed with two major and different approaches. In the first approach a continuum local damage formulation with regularisation is presented. This formulation has two principal ingredients. On the one hand, it makes use of the principles of the smeared crack theory to avoid the mesh size dependence of the structural response in softening. On the other hand, it uses a Hodge-Petruska bidimensional model to describe the fibrils as staggered arrays of tropocollagen molecules, and from this mesoscopic model the macroscopic material properties of the collagen fibres are obtained using an homogenisation process. In the second approach a non-local gradient-enhanced damage formulation is introduced. The model is built around the enhancement of the free energy function by means of a term that contains the referential gradient of the non-local damage variable. The inclusion of this term ensures an implicit regularisation of the finite element implementation, yielding mesh-objective results of the simulations. The applicability of the later model to biomechanically-related problems is studied by means of the simulation of a typical surgical procedure, namely, the balloon angioplasty.

Some recent applications of non-linear models to the engineering practice

The Department of Structural Analysis of the University of Santander has been for a longtime involved in the solution of the country´s practical engineering problems. Some of these have required the use of non-conventional methods of analysis, in order to achieve adequate engineering answers. As an example of the increasing application of non-linear computer codes in the nowadays engineering practice, some cases will be briefly presented. In each case, only the main features of the problem involved and the solution used to solve it will be shown