Asymptotically Optimum Estimation of a Probability in Inverse Binomial Sampling under General Loss Functions

The optimum quality that can be asymptotically achieved in the estimation of a probability p using inverse binomial sampling is addressed. A general definition of quality is used in terms of the risk associated with a loss function that satisfies certain assumptions. It is shown that the limit superior of the risk for p asymptotically small has a minimum over all (possibly randomized) estimators. This minimum is achieved by certain non-randomized estimators. The model includes commonly used quality criteria as particular cases. Applications to the non-asymptotic regime are discussed considering specific loss functions, for which minimax estimators are derived.

Low initial aspect-ratio direct-drive target designs for shock- or self-ignition in the context of the laser Megajoule

Analysis of low initial aspect ratio direct-drive target designs is carried out by varying the implosion velocity and the fuel mass. Starting from two different spherical targets with a given 300?g-DT mass, optimization of laser pulse and drive power allows to obtain a set of target seeds referenced by their peak implosion velocities and initial aspect ratio (A = 3 and A = 5). Self-ignition is achieved with higher implosion velocity for A = 5-design than for A = 3-design. Then, rescaling is done to extend the set of designs to a huge amount of mass, peak kinetic energies and peak areal densities. Self-ignition kinetic energy threshold Ek is characterized by a dependance of Ek ? v? with ?-values which depart from self-ignition models. Nevertheless, self-ignition energy is seen lower for smaller initial aspect ratio. An analysis of Two-Plasmons Decay threshold and Rayleigh?Taylor instability e-folding is carried out and it is shown that two-plasmon decay threshold is always overpassed for all designs. The hydrodynamic stability analysis is performed by embedded models to deal with linear and non-linear regime. It is found that the A = 5-designs are always at the limit of disruption of the shell.

Non-uniform target illumination in deflagration regime : thermal smoothing

Thermal smoothing in the plasma ablated from a laser target under weakly nonuniform irradiation is analyzed, assuming absorption at nc and a deflagration regime (conduction restricted to a thin quasisteady layer next to the target). Magnetic generation effects are included and found to be weak. Differences from results available in the literature are explained; the importance of the character of the underdense flow at uniform irradiation is emphasized.

Non uniform target illumination in deflagration regime : refractive smoothing

Refractive smoothing of weak non-uniformities in the illumination of laser targets is analyzed, assuming absorption at the critical density and restricting conduction to a thin layer, and using results from thermal smoothing, which is uncoupled from the refraction. Magnetic effects are included. Non-uniformity wavelengths comparable to the thickness of the conduction layer are considered; efficient smoothing exists at both short and long wavelengths in this range. Thermal focusing could make the ablated plasma unstable.

Linear global instability of non-orthogonal incompressible swept attachment-line boundary layer flow

Instability of the orthogonal swept attachment line boundary layer has received attention by local1, 2 and global3–5 analysis methods over several decades, owing to the significance of this model to transition to turbulence on the surface of swept wings. However, substantially less attention has been paid to the problem of laminar flow instability in the non-orthogonal swept attachment-line boundary layer; only a local analysis framework has been employed to-date.6 The present contribution addresses this issue from a linear global (BiGlobal) instability analysis point of view in the incompressible regime. Direct numerical simulations have also been performed in order to verify the analysis results and unravel the limits of validity of the Dorrepaal basic flow7 model analyzed. Cross-validated results document the effect of the angle _ on the critical conditions identified by Hall et al.1 and show linear destabilization of the flow with decreasing AoA, up to a limit at which the assumptions of the Dorrepaal model become questionable. Finally, a simple extension of the extended G¨ortler-H¨ammerlin ODE-based polynomial model proposed by Theofilis et al.4 is presented for the non-orthogonal flow. In this model, the symmetries of the three-dimensional disturbances are broken by the non-orthogonal flow conditions. Temporal and spatial one-dimensional linear eigenvalue codes were developed, obtaining consistent results with BiGlobal stability analysis and DNS. Beyond the computational advantages presented by the ODE-based model, it allows us to understand the functional dependence of the three-dimensional disturbances in the non-orthogonal case as well as their connections with the disturbances of the orthogonal stability problem.

Reentrant and whirling hexagons in non-Boussinesq convection

We review recent computational results for hexagon patterns in non- Boussinesq convection. For sufficiently strong dependence of the fluid parameters on the temperature we find reentrance of steady hexagons, i.e. while near onset the hexagon patterns become unstable to rolls as usually, they become again stable in the strongly nonlinear regime. If the convection apparatus is rotated about a vertical axis the transition from hexagons to rolls is replaced by a Hopf bifurcation to whirling hexagons. For weak non-Boussinesq effects they display defect chaos of the type described by the two-dimensional (2D) complex Ginzburg-andau equation. For stronger non-Boussinesq effects the Hopf bifurcation becomes subcritical and localized bursting of the whirling amplitude is found. In this regime the cou- pling of the whirling amplitude to (small) deformations of the hexagon lattice becomes important. For yet stronger non-Boussinesq effects this coupling breaks up the hexagon lattice and strongly disordered states characterized by whirling and lattice defects are obtained.

Hexagons and spiral defect chaos in non-Boussinesq convection at low Prandtl numbers

We study the stability and dynamics of non-Boussinesq convection in pure gases ?CO2 and SF6? with Prandtl numbers near Pr? 1 and in a H2-Xe mixture with Pr= 0.17. Focusing on the strongly nonlinear regime we employ Galerkin stability analyses and direct numerical simulations of the Navier-Stokes equations. For Pr ? 1 and intermediate non-Boussinesq effects we find reentrance of stable hexagons as the Rayleigh number is increased. For stronger non-Boussinesq effects the usual, transverse side-band instability is superseded by a longitudinal side-band instability. Moreover, the hexagons do not exhibit any amplitude instability to rolls. Seemingly, this result contradicts the experimentally observed transition from hexagons to rolls. We resolve this discrepancy by including the effect of the lateral walls. Non-Boussinesq effects modify the spiral defect chaos observed for larger Rayleigh numbers. For convection in SF6 we find that non-Boussinesq effects strongly increase the number of small, compact convection cells and with it enhance the cellular character of the patterns. In H2-Xe, closer to threshold, we find instead an enhanced tendency toward roll-like structures. In both cases the number of spirals and of targetlike components is reduced. We quantify these effects using recently developed diagnostics of the geometric properties of the patterns.

Reentrant hexagons in non-Boussinesq convection.

While non-Boussinesq hexagonal convection patterns are known to be stable close to threshold (i.e. for Rayleigh numbers R ? Rc ), it has often been assumed that they are always unstable to rolls for slightly higher Rayleigh numbers. Using the incompressible Navier?Stokes equations for parameters corresponding to water as the working fluid, we perform full numerical stability analyses of hexagons in the strongly nonlinear regime ( ? (R ? Rc )/Rc = O(1)). We find ?re-entrant? behaviour of the hexagons, i.e. as is increased they can lose and regain stability. This can occur for values of as low as = 0.2. We identify two factors contributing to the re-entrance: (i) far above threshold there exists a hexagon attractor even in Boussinesq convection as has been shown recently and (ii) the non-Boussinesq effects increase with . Using direct simulations for circular containers we show that the re-entrant hexagons can prevail even for sidewall conditions that favour convection in the form of competing stable rolls. For sufficiently strong non-Boussinesq effects hexagons even become stable over the whole -range considered, 0 6 6 1.5.

Analysis of the influence of the plasma thermodynamic regime in the spectrally resolved and mean radiative opacity calculations of carbon plasmas in a wide range of density and temperature

In this work the spectrally resolved, multigroup and mean radiative opacities of carbon plasmas are calculated for a wide range of plasma conditions which cover situations where corona, local thermodynamic and non-local thermodynamic equilibrium regimes are found. An analysis of the influence of the thermodynamic regime on these magnitudes is also carried out by means of comparisons of the results obtained from collisional-radiative, corona or Saha–Boltzmann equations. All the calculations presented in this work were performed using ABAKO/RAPCAL code.

Source terms for calculations of vaporizing and burning fuel sprays with non-unity Lewis numbers in gases with temperature-dependent thermal conductivities

Liquid-fueled burners are used in a number of propulsion devices ranging from internal combustion engines to gas turbines. The structure of spray flames is quite complex and involves a wide range of time and spatial scales in both premixed and non-premixed modes (Williams 1965; Luo et al. 2011). A number of spray-combustion regimes can be observed experimentally in canonical scenarios of practical relevance such as counterflow diffusion flames (Li 1997), as sketched in figure 1, and for which different microscalemodelling strategies are needed. In this study, source terms for the conservation equations are calculated for heating, vaporizing and burning sprays in the single-droplet combustion regime. The present analysis provides extended formulation for source terms, which include non-unity Lewis numbers and variable thermal conductivities.

Temperature of solar cells with regard to photoactive and non-photoactive light absorption in concentrator PV modules

A new method has recently been proposed by us for accurate measurement of the solar cell temperature in any operational regime, in particular, at a maximum power point (MPP) of the I-V curve (T-p-n(MPP)). For this, fast switching of a cell from MPP to open circuit (OC) regime is carried out and open circuit voltage V-oc is measured immediately (within about 1 millisecond), so that this value becomes to be an indicator of T-p-n(MPP). In the present work, we have considered a practical case, when a solar cell is heated not only by absorption of light incident upon its surface (called "photoactive" absorption of power), but also by heat transferred from structural elements surrounding the cell and heated by absorption of direct or diffused sunlight ("non-photoactive" absorption of power with respect to a solar cell). This process takes place in any concentrator module with non-ideal concentrators. Low overheating temperature of the p-n junction (or p-n junctions in a multijunction cell) is a cumulative parameter characterizing the quality of a solar module by the factor of heat removal effectiveness and, at the same time, by the factor of low "non-photoactive" losses.