10 resultados para NEGATIVE BINOMIAL-DISTRIBUTION

em Universidad Politécnica de Madrid


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Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) are mostly implemented to circumvent budgetary constraints, and to encourage efficiency and quality in the provision of public infrastructure in order to reach social welfare. One of the ways of reaching the latter objective is by the introduction of performance based standards tied to bonuses and penalties to reward or punish the performance of the contractor. This paper focuses on the implementation of safety based incentives in PPPs in such a way that the better the safety outcome the greater larger will be the economic reward to the contractor. The main aim of this paper is to identify whether the incentives to improve road safety in PPPs are ultimately effective in improving safety ratios in Spain. To that end, Poisson and negative binomial regression models have been applied using information of motorways of the Spanish network of 2006. The findings indicate that even though road safety is highly influenced by variables that are not much controllable by the contractor such as the Average Annual Daily Traffic and the percentage of heavy vehicles, the implementation of safety incentives in PPPs has a positive influence in the reduction of fatalities, injuries and accidents.

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Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) are mostly implemented for three reasons: to circumvent budgetary constraints, encourage efficiency and improvement of quality in the provision of public infrastructure. One of the ways of reaching the latter objective is by the introduction of performance-based standards tied to bonuses and penalties to reward or punish the performance of the contractor. These performance based standards often refer to different aspects such as technical, environmental and safety issues. This paper focuses on the implementation of safety based incentives in PPPs. The main aim of this paper is to analyze whether the incentives to improve road safety in PPPs are effective in improving safety ratios in Spain. To this end, negative binomial regression models have been applied using information from the Spanish high capacity network in 2006. The findings indicate that even though road safety is highly influenced by variables that are not much controllable by the contractor such as the Average Annual Daily Traffic and the percentage of heavy vehicles in the highway, the implementation of safety incentives in PPPs has a positive influence in the reduction of fatalities, injuries and accidents.

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Many countries around the world are implementing Public?Private?Partnership (PPP) contacts to manage road infrastructure. In some of these contracts the public sector introduces economic incentives to the private operator to foster the accomplishment of social goals. One of the incentives that have been introduced in some PPP contracts is related to safety in such a way that the better the safety outcome the greater will be the economic reward to the contractor. The aim of this paper is at identify whether the incentives to improve road safety in highway PPPs are ultimately effective in improving safety ratios. To this end Poisson and negative binomial regression models have been applied using information from highway sections in Spain. The findings indicate that even though road safety is highly influenced by variables that are not much controllable by the contractor such as the Average Annual Daily Traffic and the percentage of heavy vehicles, the implementation of safety incentives in PPPs has a positive influence in the reduction of fatalities, injuries and accidents.

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The goal of this paper is to evaluate whether the incentives incorporated in toll highway concession contracts in order to encourage private operators to adopt measures to reduce accidents are actually effective at improving safety. To this end, we implemented negative binomial regression models using information about highway characteristics and accident data from toll highway concessions in Spain from 2007 to 2009. Our results show that even though road safety is highly influenced by variables that are not managed by the contractor, such as the annual average daily traffic (AADT), the percentage of heavy vehicles on the highway, number of lanes, number of intersections and average speed; the implementation of these incentives has a positive influence on the reduction of accidents and injuries. Consequently, this measure seems to be an effective way of improving safety performance in road networks.

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Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) are mostly implemented for three reasons: to circumvent budgetary constraints, encourage efficiency and improvement of quality in the provision of public infrastructure. One of the ways of reaching the latter objective is by the introduction of performance-based standards tied to bonuses and penalties to reward or punish the performance of the contractor. These performance based standards often refer to different aspects such as technical, environmental and safety issues. This paper focuses on the implementation of safety based incentives in PPPs. The main aim of this paper is to analyze whether the incentives to improve road safety in PPPs are effective in improving safety ratios in Spain. To this end, negative binomial regression models have been applied using information from the Spanish high capacity network in 2006. The findings indicate that even though road safety is highly influenced by variables that are not much controllable by the contractor such as the Average Annual Daily Traffic and the percentage of heavy vehicles in the highway, the implementation of safety incentives in PPPs has a positive influence in the reduction of fatalities, injuries and accidents.

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El Transportation Research Board es un congreso de reconocido prestigio internacional en el ámbito de la investigación del transporte. Aunque las actas publicadas están en formato digital y sin ISSN ni ISBN, lo consideramos lo suficientemente importante como para que se considere en los indicadores. This paper focuses on the implementation of safety based incentives in Public Private Partnerships (PPPs). The aim of this paper is twofold. First, to evaluate whether PPPs lead to an improvement in road safety, when compared with other infrastructure management systems. Second, is to analyze whether the incentives to improve road safety in PPP contracts in Spain have been effective at improving safety performance. To this end, negative binomial regression models have been applied using information from the Spanish high-capacity network covering years 2007-2009. The results showed that even though road safety is highly influenced by variables that are not manageable by the private concessionaire such as the average annual daily traffic, the implementation of safety incentives in PPPs has a positive influence in the reduction of accidents.

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Abstract The cloud forest is a special type of forest ecosystem that depends on suitable conditions of humidity and temperature to exist; hence, it is a very fragile ecosystem. The cloud forest is also one of the richest ecosystems in terms of species diversity and rate of endemism. However, today, it is one of the most threatened ecosystems in the world. Little is known about tree species distribution and coexistence among cloud forest trees. Trees are essential to understanding ecosystem functioning and maintenance because they support the ecosystem in important ways. For this dissertation, an analysis of woody plant species distribution at a small scale in a north-Peruvian Andean cloud forest was performed, and some of the factors implicated in the observed patterns were identified. Towards that end, different natural factors acting on species distribution within the forest were investigated: (i) intra-specific arrangements, (ii) heterospecific spatial relationships and (iii) relationships with external environmental factors. These analyses were conducted first on standing woody plants and then on seedlings. The woody plants were found to be clumped in the forest, either considering all the species together or each species separately. However, each species presented a specific pattern and specific spatial relationship among different-age individuals. Dispersal mode, growth form and shade tolerance played roles in the final distribution of the species. Furthermore, spatial associations among species, either positive or negative, were observed. These associations were more numerous when considering individuals of the interacting species at different developmental stages, i.e., younger individuals from one species and older individuals from another. Accordingly, competition and facilitation are asymmetric processes and vary throughout the life of an individual. Moreover, some species appear to prefer certain habitat conditions and avoid other habitats. The habitat definition that best explains species distribution is that which includes both environmental and stand characteristics; thus, a combination of these factors is necessary to understanding species' niche preferences. Seedling distribution was also associated with habitat conditions, but these conditions explained less than the 30% of the spatial variation. The position of conspecific adult individuals also affected seedling distribution; although the seedlings of many tree species avoid the vicinity of conspecifics, a few species appeared to prefer the formation of cohorts around their parent trees. The importance of habitat conditions and distance dependence with conspecifics varied among regions within the forest as well as on the developmental stage of the stand. The results from this thesis suggest that different species can coexist within a given space, forming a “puzzle” of species as a result of the intra- and interspecific spatial relationships along with niche preferences and adaptations that operate at different scales. These factors not only affect each species in a different way, but specific preferences also vary throughout species' lifespans. Resumen Resumen El bosque de niebla es uno de los ecosistemas más amenazados del mundo además de ser uno de los más frágiles. Son formaciones azonales que dependen de la existencia de unas condiciones de humedad y temperatura que permitan la formación de nubes que cubran el bosque; lo que dificulta en gran medida su conservación. También es uno de los ecosistemas con mayor riqueza de especies además de tener uno de los mayores porcentajes de endemismos. Uno de los aspectos más importantes para entender el ecosistema, es identificar y entender los elementos que lo componen y los mecanismos que regulan las relaciones entre ellos. Los árboles son el soporte del ecosistema. Sin embargo, apenas hay información sobre la distribución y coexistencia de los árboles en los bosques de niebla. Esta tesis presenta un análisis de la distribución a pequeña escala de las plantas leñosas en un bosque de niebla situado en la cordillera andina del norte de Perú; así como el análisis de algunos de los factores que pueden estar implicados en que se origine la distribución observada. Para este propósito se estudia cómo influyen factores de diferente naturaleza en la distribución de las especies (i) organización intra-específica (ii) relaciones espaciales heterospecíficas y (iii) relación con factores ambientales externos. En estos análisis se estudiaron primero las plantas jóvenes y las adultas, y después las plántulas. Los árboles aparecieron agregados en el bosque, tanto considerando todos a la vez como cuando se estudió cada especie por separado. Sin embargo, cada especie mostró un patrón distinto así como una particular relación espacial entre individuos jóvenes y adultos. El modo de dispersión, la forma de vida y la tolerancia de la especies estuvieron relacionados con el patrón general observado. Se vio también que ciertas especies aparecían relacionadas con otras, tanto de forma positiva (compartiendo zonas) como negativa (apareciendo en áreas distintas). Las asociaciones fueron mucho más numerosas cuando se consideraron los pares de especies en diferente estado de desarrollo, es decir, individuos jóvenes de una especie e individuos mayores de la otra. Eso indicaría que los procesos de competencia y facilitación son asimétricos y además varían durante la vida de la planta. Por otro lado, algunas especies aparecen preferentemente bajo ciertas condiciones de hábitat y evitan otras. La definición de hábitat a la que mejor responden las especies es cuando se incluyen tanto variables ambientales como de masa; así que ambos tipos de variables son necesarias para entender la preferencia de las especies por ciertos nichos. La distribución de las plántulas también estuvo relacionada con condiciones de hábitat, pero eso sólo llegaba a explicar hasta un 30% de la variabilidad espacial. La posición de los adultos de la misma especie también afectó a la distribución de las plántulas. En bastantes especies las plántulas evitan la cercanía de adultos de su misma especie, padres potenciales, aunque algunas especies aisladas mostraron el patrón contrario y aparecieron preferentemente en las mismas áreas que sus padres. La importancia de las condiciones de hábitat y posición de los adultos en la disposición de las plántulas varía de una zona a otra del bosque y además también varía según el estado de desarrollo de la masa.

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To determine the contribution of polar auxin transport (PAT) to auxin accumulation and to adventitious root (AR) formation in the stem base of Petunia hybrida shoot tip cuttings, the level of indole-3-acetic acid (IAA) was monitored in non-treated cuttings and cuttings treated with the auxin transport blocker naphthylphthalamic acid (NPA) and was complemented with precise anatomical studies. The temporal course of carbohydrates, amino acids and activities of controlling enzymes was also investigated. Analysis of initial spatial IAA distribution in the cuttings revealed that approximately 40 and 10% of the total IAA pool was present in the leaves and the stem base as rooting zone, respectively. A negative correlation existed between leaf size and IAA concentration. After excision of cuttings, IAA showed an early increase in the stem base with two peaks at 2 and 24h post excision and, thereafter, a decline to low levels. This was mirrored by the expression pattern of the auxin-responsive GH3 gene. NPA treatment completely suppressed the 24-h peak of IAA and severely inhibited root formation. It also reduced activities of cell wall and vacuolar invertases in the early phase of AR formation and inhibited the rise of activities of glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase and phosphofructokinase during later stages. We propose a model in which spontaneous AR formation in Petunia cuttings is dependent on PAT and on the resulting 24-h peak of IAA in the rooting zone, where it induces early cellular events and also stimulates sink establishment. Subsequent root development stimulates glycolysis and the pentosephosphate pathway

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In the photovoltaic field, the back contact solar cells technology has appeared as an alternative to the traditional silicon modules. This new type of cells places both positive and negative contacts on the back side of the cells maximizing the exposed surface to the light and making easier the interconnection of the cells in the module. The Emitter Wrap-Through solar cell structure presents thousands of tiny holes to wrap the emitter from the front surface to the rear surface. These holes are made in a first step over the silicon wafers by means of a laser drilling process. This step is quite harmful from a mechanical point of view since holes act as stress concentrators leading to a reduction in the strength of these wafers. This paper presents the results of the strength characterization of drilled wafers. The study is carried out testing the samples with the ring on ring device. Finite Element models are developed to simulate the tests. The stress concentration factor of the drilled wafers under this load conditions is determined from the FE analysis. Moreover, the material strength is characterized fitting the fracture stress of the samples to a three-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function. The parameters obtained are compared with the ones obtained in the analysis of a set of samples without holes to validate the method employed for the study of the strength of silicon drilled wafers.

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Although tree ferns are an important component of temperate and tropical forests, very little is known about their ecology. Their peculiar biology (e.g., dispersal by spores and two-phase life cycle) makes it difficult to extrapolate current knowledge on the ecology of other tree species to tree ferns. In this paper, we studied the effects of negative density dependence (NDD) and environmental heterogeneity on populations of two abundant tree fern species, Cyathea caracasana and Alsophila engelii, and how these effects change across a successional gradient. Species patterns harbor information on processes such as competition that can be easily revealed using point pattern analysis techniques. However, its detection may be difficult due to the confounded effects of habitat heterogeneity. Here, we mapped three forest plots along a successional gradient in the montane forests of Southern Ecuador. We employed homogeneous and inhomogeneous K and pair correlation functions to quantify the change in the spatial pattern of different size classes and a case-control design to study associations between juvenile and adult tree ferns. Using spatial estimates of the biomass of four functional tree types (short- and long-lived pioneer, shade- and partial shade-tolerant) as covariates, we fitted heterogeneous Poisson models to the point pattern of juvenile and adult tree ferns and explored the existence of habitat dependencies on these patterns. Our study revealed NDD effects for C. caracasana and strong environmental filtering underlying the pattern of A. engelii. We found that adult and juvenile populations of both species responded differently to habitat heterogeneity and in most cases this heterogeneity was associated with the spatial distribution of biomass of the four functional tree types. These findings show the effectiveness of factoring out environmental heterogeneity to avoid confounding factors when studying NDD and demonstrate the usefulness of covariate maps derived from mapped communities.