A Methodological model to assist the optimization and risk management of mining investment decisions

Identifying, quantifying, and minimizing technical risks associated with investment decisions is a key challenge for mineral industry decision makers and investors. However, risk analysis in most bankable mine feasibility studies are based on the stochastic modelling of project “Net Present Value” (NPV)which, in most cases, fails to provide decision makers with a truly comprehensive analysis of risks associated with technical and management uncertainty and, as a result, are of little use for risk management and project optimization. This paper presents a value-chain risk management approach where project risk is evaluated for each step of the project lifecycle, from exploration to mine closure, and risk management is performed as a part of a stepwise value-added optimization process.

Agent-based modelling for cement hydration

The Agent-Based Modelling and simulation (ABM) is a rather new approach for studying complex systems withinteracting autonomous agents that has lately undergone great growth in various fields such as biology, physics, social science, economics and business. Efforts to model and simulate the highly complex cement hydration process have been made over the past 40 years, with the aim of predicting the performance of concrete and designing innovative and enhanced cementitious materials. The ABM presented here - based on previous work - focuses on the early stages of cement hydration by modelling the physical-chemical processes at the particle level. The model considers the cement hydration process as a time and 3D space system, involving multiple diffusing and reacting species of spherical particles. Chemical reactions are simulated by adaptively selecting discrete stochastic simulation for the appropriate reaction, whenever that is necessary. Interactions between particles are also considered. The model has been inspired by reported cellular automata?s approach which provides detailed predictions of cement microstructure at the expense of significant computational difficulty. The ABM approach herein seeks to bring about an optimal balance between accuracy and computational efficiency.

Modelling Pinus pinea forest management to attain natural regeneration under present and future climatic scenarios

Natural regeneration-based silviculture has been increasingly regarded as a reliable option in sustainable forest management. However, successful natural regeneration is not always easy to achieve. Recently, new concerns have arisen because of changing future climate. To date, regeneration models have proved helpful in decision-making concerning natural regeneration. The implementation of such models into optimization routines is a promising approach in providing forest managers with accurate tools for forest planning. In the present study, we present a stochastic multistage regeneration model for Pinus pinea L. managed woodlands in Central Spain, where regeneration has been historically unsuccessful. The model is able to quantify recruitment under different silviculture alternatives and varying climatic scenarios, with further application to optimize management scheduling. The regeneration process in the species showed high between-year variation, with all subprocesses (seed production, dispersal, germination, predation, and seedling survival) having the potential to become bottlenecks. However, model simulations demonstrate that current intensive management is responsible for regeneration failure in the long term. Specifically, stand densities at rotation age are too low to guarantee adequate dispersal, the optimal density of seed-producing trees being around 150 stems·ha−1. In addition, rotation length needs to be extended up to 120 years to benefit from the higher seed production of older trees. Stochastic optimization confirms these results. Regeneration does not appear to worsen under climate change conditions; the species exhibiting resilience worthy of broader consideration in Mediterranean silviculture.

Multisensor data fusion for accurate modelling of mobile objects

In the last decade, multi-sensor data fusion has become a broadly demanded discipline to achieve advanced solutions that can be applied in many real world situations, either civil or military. In Defence,accurate detection of all target objects is fundamental to maintaining situational awareness, to locating threats in the battlefield and to identifying and protecting strategically own forces. Civil applications, such as traffic monitoring, have similar requirements in terms of object detection and reliable identification of incidents in order to ensure safety of road users. Thanks to the appropriate data fusion technique, we can give these systems the power to exploit automatically all relevant information from multiple sources to face for instance mission needs or assess daily supervision operations. This paper focuses on its application to active vehicle monitoring in a particular area of high density traffic, and how it is redirecting the research activities being carried out in the computer vision, signal processing and machine learning fields for improving the effectiveness of detection and tracking in ground surveillance scenarios in general. Specifically, our system proposes fusion of data at a feature level which is extracted from a video camera and a laser scanner. In addition, a stochastic-based tracking which introduces some particle filters into the model to deal with uncertainty due to occlusions and improve the previous detection output is presented in this paper. It has been shown that this computer vision tracker contributes to detect objects even under poor visual information. Finally, in the same way that humans are able to analyze both temporal and spatial relations among items in the scene to associate them a meaning, once the targets objects have been correctly detected and tracked, it is desired that machines can provide a trustworthy description of what is happening in the scene under surveillance. Accomplishing so ambitious task requires a machine learning-based hierarchic architecture able to extract and analyse behaviours at different abstraction levels. A real experimental testbed has been implemented for the evaluation of the proposed modular system. Such scenario is a closed circuit where real traffic situations can be simulated. First results have shown the strength of the proposed system.