33 resultados para Multi-scheme ensemble prediction system

em Universidad Politécnica de Madrid


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CIAO is an advanced programming environment supporting Logic and Constraint programming. It offers a simple concurrent kernel on top of which declarative and non-declarative extensions are added via librarles. Librarles are available for supporting the ISOProlog standard, several constraint domains, functional and higher order programming, concurrent and distributed programming, internet programming, and others. The source language allows declaring properties of predicates via assertions, including types and modes. Such properties are checked at compile-time or at run-time. The compiler and system architecture are designed to natively support modular global analysis, with the two objectives of proving properties in assertions and performing program optimizations, including transparently exploiting parallelism in programs. The purpose of this paper is to report on recent progress made in the context of the CIAO system, with special emphasis on the capabilities of the compiler, the techniques used for supporting such capabilities, and the results in the áreas of program analysis and transformation already obtained with the system.

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Abstract is not available.

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Abstract is not available

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The size and complexity of cloud environments make them prone to failures. The traditional approach to achieve a high dependability for these systems relies on constant monitoring. However, this method is purely reactive. A more proactive approach is provided by online failure prediction (OFP) techniques. In this paper, we describe a OFP system for private IaaS platforms, currently under development, that combines di_erent types of data input, including monitoring information, event logs, and failure data. In addition, this system operates at both the physical and virtual planes of the cloud, taking into account the relationships between nodes and failure propagation mechanisms that are unique to cloud environments.

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Maximizing energy autonomy is a consistent challenge when deploying mobile robots in ionizing radiation or other hazardous environments. Having a reliable robot system is essential for successful execution of missions and to avoid manual recovery of the robots in environments that are harmful to human beings. For deployment of robots missions at short notice, the ability to know beforehand the energy required for performing the task is essential. This paper presents a on-line method for predicting energy requirements based on the pre-determined power models for a mobile robot. A small mobile robot, Khepera III is used for the experimental study and the results are promising with high prediction accuracy. The applications of the energy prediction models in energy optimization and simulations are also discussed along with examples of significant energy savings.

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This document contains detailed description of the design and the implementation of a multi-agent application controlling traffic lights in a city together with a system for simulating traffic and testing. The goal of this thesis is to design and build a simplified intelligent and distributed solution to the problem with the traffic in the big cities following different good practices in order to allow future refining of the model of the real world. The problem of the traffic in the big cities is still a problem that cannot be solved. Not only is the increasing number of cars a reason for the traffic jams, but also the way the traffic is organized. Usually, the intersections with traffic lights are replaced by roundabouts or interchanges to increase the number of cars that can cross the intersection in certain time. But still there are places where the infrastructure cannot be changed and the traffic light semaphores are the only way to control the car flows. In real life, the traffic lights have a predefined plan for change or they receive information from a centralized system when and how they have to change. But what if the traffic lights can cooperate and decide on their own when and how to change? Using this problem, the purpose of the thesis is to explore different agent-based software engineering approaches to design and build a non-conventional distributed system. From the software engineering point of view, the goal of the thesis is to apply the knowledge and use the skills, acquired during the various courses of the master program in Software Engineering, while solving a practical and complex problem such as the traffic in the cities.

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Dynamic and Partial Reconfiguration (DPR) allows a system to be able to modify certain parts of itself during run-time. This feature gives rise to the capability of evolution: changing parts of the configuration according to the online evaluation of performance or other parameters. The evolution is achieved through a bio-inspired model in which the features of the system are identified as genes. The objective of the evolution may not be a single one; in this work, power consumption is taken into consideration, together with the quality of filtering, as the measure of performance, of a noisy image. Pareto optimality is applied to the evolutionary process, in order to find a representative set of optimal solutions as for performance and power consumption. The main contributions of this paper are: implementing an evolvable system on a low-power Spartan-6 FPGA included in a Wireless Sensor Network node and, by enabling the availability of a real measure of power consumption at run-time, achieving the capability of multi-objective evolution, that yields different optimal configurations, among which the selected one will depend on the relative “weights” of performance and power consumption.

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Recently there has been an important increase in electric equipment, as well as, electric power demand in aircrafts applications. This prompts to the necessity of efficient, reliable, and low-weight converters, especially rectifiers from 115VAC to 270VDC because these voltages are used in power distribution. In order to obtain a high efficiency, in aircraft application where the derating in semiconductors is high, normally several semiconductors are used in parallel to decrease the conduction losses. However, this is in conflict with high reliability. To match both goals of high efficiency and reliability, this work proposes an interleaved multi-cell rectifier system, employing several converter cells in parallel instead of parallel-connected semiconductors. In this work a 10kW multi-cell isolated rectifier system has been designed where each cell is composed of a buck type rectifier and a full bridge DC-DC converter. The implemented system exhibits 91% of efficiency, high power density (10kW/10kg), low THD (2.5%), and n−1 fault tolerance which complies, with military aircraft standards.

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The authors are from UPM and are relatively grouped, and all have intervened in different academic or real cases on the subject, at different times as being of different age. With precedent from E. Torroja and A. Páez in Madrid Spain Safety Probabilistic models for concrete about 1957, now in ICOSSAR conferences, author J.M. Antón involved since autumn 1967 for euro-steel construction in CECM produced a math model for independent load superposition reductions, and using it a load coefficient pattern for codes in Rome Feb. 1969, practically adopted for European constructions, giving in JCSS Lisbon Feb. 1974 suggestion of union for concrete-steel-al.. That model uses model for loads like Gumbel type I, for 50 years for one type of load, reduced to 1 year to be added to other independent loads, the sum set in Gumbel theories to 50 years return period, there are parallel models. A complete reliability system was produced, including non linear effects as from buckling, phenomena considered somehow in actual Construction Eurocodes produced from Model Codes. The system was considered by author in CEB in presence of Hydraulic effects from rivers, floods, sea, in reference with actual practice. When redacting a Road Drainage Norm in MOPU Spain an optimization model was realized by authors giving a way to determine the figure of Return Period, 10 to 50 years, for the cases of hydraulic flows to be considered in road drainage. Satisfactory examples were a stream in SE of Spain with Gumbel Type I model and a paper of Ven Te Chow with Mississippi in Keokuk using Gumbel type II, and the model can be modernized with more varied extreme laws. In fact in the MOPU drainage norm the redacting commission acted also as expert to set a table of return periods for elements of road drainage, in fact as a multi-criteria complex decision system. These precedent ideas were used e.g. in wide Codes, indicated in symposia or meetings, but not published in journals in English, and a condensate of contributions of authors is presented. The authors are somehow involved in optimization for hydraulic and agro planning, and give modest hints of intended applications in presence of agro and environment planning as a selection of the criteria and utility functions involved in bayesian, multi-criteria or mixed decision systems. Modest consideration is made of changing in climate, and on the production and commercial systems, and on others as social and financial.

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This study explored the utility of the impact response surface (IRS) approach for investigating model ensemble crop yield responses under a large range of changes in climate. IRSs of spring and winter wheat Triticum aestivum yields were constructed from a 26-member ensemble of process-based crop simulation models for sites in Finland, Germany and Spain across a latitudinal transect. The sensitivity of modelled yield to systematic increments of changes in temperature (-2 to +9°C) and precipitation (-50 to +50%) was tested by modifying values of baseline (1981 to 2010) daily weather, with CO2 concentration fixed at 360 ppm. The IRS approach offers an effective method of portraying model behaviour under changing climate as well as advantages for analysing, comparing and presenting results from multi-model ensemble simulations. Though individual model behaviour occasionally departed markedly from the average, ensemble median responses across sites and crop varieties indicated that yields decline with higher temperatures and decreased precipitation and increase with higher precipitation. Across the uncertainty ranges defined for the IRSs, yields were more sensitive to temperature than precipitation changes at the Finnish site while sensitivities were mixed at the German and Spanish sites. Precipitation effects diminished under higher temperature changes. While the bivariate and multi-model characteristics of the analysis impose some limits to interpretation, the IRS approach nonetheless provides additional insights into sensitivities to inter-model and inter-annual variability. Taken together, these sensitivities may help to pinpoint processes such as heat stress, vernalisation or drought effects requiring refinement in future model development.

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Objective: This research is focused in the creation and validation of a solution to the inverse kinematics problem for a 6 degrees of freedom human upper limb. This system is intended to work within a realtime dysfunctional motion prediction system that allows anticipatory actuation in physical Neurorehabilitation under the assisted-as-needed paradigm. For this purpose, a multilayer perceptron-based and an ANFIS-based solution to the inverse kinematics problem are evaluated. Materials and methods: Both the multilayer perceptron-based and the ANFIS-based inverse kinematics methods have been trained with three-dimensional Cartesian positions corresponding to the end-effector of healthy human upper limbs that execute two different activities of the daily life: "serving water from a jar" and "picking up a bottle". Validation of the proposed methodologies has been performed by a 10 fold cross-validation procedure. Results: Once trained, the systems are able to map 3D positions of the end-effector to the corresponding healthy biomechanical configurations. A high mean correlation coefficient and a low root mean squared error have been found for both the multilayer perceptron and ANFIS-based methods. Conclusions: The obtained results indicate that both systems effectively solve the inverse kinematics problem, but, due to its low computational load, crucial in real-time applications, along with its high performance, a multilayer perceptron-based solution, consisting in 3 input neurons, 1 hidden layer with 3 neurons and 6 output neurons has been considered the most appropriated for the target application.

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This article presents a multi-agent expert system (SMAF) , that allows the input of incidents which occur in different elements of the telecommunications area. SMAF interacts with experts and general users, and each agent with all the agents? community, recording the incidents and their solutions in a knowledge base, without the analysis of their causes. The incidents are expressed using keywords taken from natural language (originally Spanish) and their main concepts are recorded with their severities as the users express them. Then, there is a search of the best solution for each incident, being helped by a human operator using a distancenotions between them.

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In this paper we present an adaptive multi-camera system for real time object detection able to efficiently adjust the computational requirements of video processing blocks to the available processing power and the activity of the scene. The system is based on a two level adaptation strategy that works at local and at global level. Object detection is based on a Gaussian mixtures model background subtraction algorithm. Results show that the system can efficiently adapt the algorithm parameters without a significant loss in the detection accuracy.

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Cable-stayed bridges represent nowadays key points in transport networks and their seismic behavior needs to be fully understood, even beyond the elastic range of materials. Both nonlinear dynamic (NL-RHA) and static (pushover) procedures are currently available to face this challenge, each with intrinsic advantages and disadvantages, and their applicability in the study of the nonlinear seismic behavior of cable-stayed bridges is discussed here. The seismic response of a large number of finite element models with different span lengths, tower shapes and class of foundation soil is obtained with different procedures and compared. Several features of the original Modal Pushover Analysis (MPA) are modified in light of cable-stayed bridge characteristics, furthermore, an extension of MPA and a new coupled pushover analysis (CNSP) are suggested to estimate the complex inelastic response of such outstanding structures subjected to multi-axial strong ground motions.

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El audio multicanal ha avanzado a pasos agigantados en los últimos años, y no solo en las técnicas de reproducción, sino que en las de capitación también. Por eso en este proyecto se encuentran ambas cosas: un array microfónico, EigenMike32 de MH Acoustics, y un sistema de reproducción con tecnología Wave Field Synthesis, instalado Iosono en la Jade Höchscule Oldenburg. Para enlazar estos dos puntos de la cadena de audio se proponen dos tipos distintos de codificación: la reproducción de la toma horizontal del EigenMike32; y el 3er orden de Ambisonics (High Order Ambisonics, HOA), una técnica de codificación basada en Armónicos Esféricos mediante la cual se simula el campo acústico en vez de simular las distintas fuentes. Ambas se desarrollaron en el entorno Matlab y apoyadas por la colección de scripts de Isophonics llamada Spatial Audio Matlab Toolbox. Para probar éstas se llevaron a cabo una serie de test en los que se las comparó con las grabaciones realizadas a la vez con un Dummy Head, a la que se supone el método más aproximado a nuestro modo de escucha. Estas pruebas incluían otras grabaciones hechas con un Doble MS de Schoeps que se explican en el proyecto “Sally”. La forma de realizar éstas fue, una batería de 4 audios repetida 4 veces para cada una de las situaciones garbadas (una conversación, una clase, una calle y un comedor universitario). Los resultados fueron inesperados, ya que la codificación del tercer orden de HOA quedo por debajo de la valoración Buena, posiblemente debido a la introducción de material hecho para un array tridimensional dentro de uno de 2 dimensiones. Por el otro lado, la codificación que consistía en extraer los micrófonos del plano horizontal se mantuvo en el nivel de Buena en todas las situaciones. Se concluye que HOA debe seguir siendo probado con mayores conocimientos sobre Armónicos Esféricos; mientras que el otro codificador, mucho más sencillo, puede ser usado para situaciones sin mucha complejidad en cuanto a espacialidad. In the last years the multichannel audio has increased in leaps and bounds and not only in the playback techniques, but also in the recording ones. That is the reason of both things being in this project: a microphone array, EigenMike32 from MH Acoustics; and a playback system with Wave Field Synthesis technology, installed by Iosono in Jade Höchscule Oldenburg. To link these two points of the audio chain, 2 different kinds of codification are proposed: the reproduction of the EigenMike32´s horizontal take, and the Ambisonics´ third order (High Order Ambisonics, HOA), a codification technique based in Spherical Harmonics through which the acoustic field is simulated instead of the different sound sources. Both have been developed inside Matlab´s environment and supported by the Isophonics´ scripts collection called Spatial Audio Matlab Toolbox. To test these, a serial of tests were made in which they were compared with recordings made at the time by a Dummy Head, which is supposed to be the closest method to our hearing way. These tests included other recording and codifications made by a Double MS (DMS) from Schoeps which are explained in the project named “3D audio rendering through Ambisonics techniques: from multi-microphone recordings (DMS Schoeps) to a WFS system, through Matlab”. The way to perform the tests was, a collection made of 4 audios repeated 4 times for each recorded situation (a chat, a class, a street and college canteen or Mensa). The results were unexpected, because the HOA´s third order stood under the Well valuation, possibly caused by introducing material made for a tridimensional array inside one made only by 2 dimensions. On the other hand, the codification that consisted of extracting the horizontal plane microphones kept the Well valuation in all the situations. It is concluded that HOA should keep being tested with larger knowledge about Spherical Harmonics; while the other coder, quite simpler, can be used for situations without a lot of complexity with regards to spatiality.