Improving runoff estimates from regional climate models: a performance analysis in Spain

An important step to assess water availability is to have monthly time series representative of the current situation. In this context, a simple methodology is presented for application in large-scale studies in regions where a properly calibrated hydrologic model is not available, using the output variables simulated by regional climate models (RCMs) of the European project PRUDENCE under current climate conditions (period 1961–1990). The methodology compares different interpolation methods and alternatives to generate annual times series that minimise the bias with respect to observed values. The objective is to identify the best alternative to obtain bias-corrected, monthly runoff time series from the output of RCM simulations. This study uses information from 338 basins in Spain that cover the entire mainland territory and whose observed values of natural runoff have been estimated by the distributed hydrological model SIMPA. Four interpolation methods for downscaling runoff to the basin scale from 10 RCMs are compared with emphasis on the ability of each method to reproduce the observed behaviour of this variable. The alternatives consider the use of the direct runoff of the RCMs and the mean annual runoff calculated using five functional forms of the aridity index, defined as the ratio between potential evapotranspiration and precipitation. In addition, the comparison with respect to the global runoff reference of the UNH/GRDC dataset is evaluated, as a contrast of the “best estimator” of current runoff on a large scale. Results show that the bias is minimised using the direct original interpolation method and the best alternative for bias correction of the monthly direct runoff time series of RCMs is the UNH/GRDC dataset, although the formula proposed by Schreiber (1904) also gives good results

Comparison of Mesh Adaptation Using the Adjoint Methodology and Truncation Error Estimates

Mesh adaptation based on error estimation has become a key technique to improve th eaccuracy o fcomputational-fluid-dynamics computations. The adjoint-based approach for error estimation is one of the most promising techniques for computational-fluid-dynamics applications. Nevertheless, the level of implementation of this technique in the aeronautical industrial environment is still low because it is a computationally expensive method. In the present investigation, a new mesh refinement method based on estimation of truncation error is presented in the context of finite-volume discretization. The estimation method uses auxiliary coarser meshes to estimate the local truncation error, which can be used for driving an adaptation algorithm. The method is demonstrated in the context of two-dimensional NACA0012 and three-dimensional ONERA M6 wing inviscid flows, and the results are compared against the adjoint-based approach and physical sensors based on features of the flow field.

Cup Anemometer's loss of performance due to ageing process, and its effect on Annual energy Production (AEP) estimates

The deviation of calibration coefficients from five cup anemometer models over time was analyzed. The analysis was based on a series of laboratory calibrations between January 2001 and August 2010. The analysis was performed on two different groups of anemometers: (1) anemometers not used for any industrial purpose (that is, just stored); and (2) anemometers used in different industrial applications (mainly in the field—or outside—applications like wind farms). Results indicate a loss of performance of the studied anemometers over time. In the case of the unused anemometers the degradation shows a clear pattern. In the case of the anemometers used in the field, the data analyzed also suggest a loss of performance, yet the degradation does not show a clear trend. A recalibration schedule is proposed based on the observed performances variations

Construction Cost Estimates for Residences in Spain: practical application of the Pcr.5n model

The construction cost estimation systems in Spain are undeveloped and, hence, infrequently used by technicians and professionals in the building sector. However, estimation of an approximate real cost prior to the execution of the work is compulsory under current legal regulations (Technical Building Code). Therefore, the development of research projects on construction cost estimation models such as the one described and demonstrated in this talk is extremely interesting.

Radio-echo sounding and ice volume estimates of western Nordenskiöld Land glaciers, Svalbard

As part of ongoing work to obtain a reliable estimate of the total ice volume of Svalbard glaciers and their potential contribution to sea-level rise, we present here volume calculations, with detailed error estimates, for ten glaciers on western Nordenskiöld Land, central Spitsbergen, Svalbard. The volume estimates are based upon a dense net of GPR-retrieved ice thickness data collected over several field campaigns spanning the period 1999-2012. On the basis of the pattern of scattering in theradargrams, we also analyse the hydrothermal structure of these glaciers.

Tree height integrated into pantropical forest biomass estimates

Aboveground tropical tree biomass and carbon storage estimates commonly ignore tree height (H). We estimate the effect of incorporating H on tropics-wide forest biomass estimates in 327 plots across four continents using 42 656 H and diameter measurements and harvested trees from 20 sites to answer the following questions: 1. What is the best H-model form and geographic unit to include in biomass models to minimise site-level uncertainty in estimates of destructive biomass? 2. To what extent does including H estimates derived in (1) reduce uncertainty in biomass estimates across all 327 plots? 3. What effect does accounting for H have on plot- and continental-scale forest biomass estimates? The mean relative error in biomass estimates of destructively harvested trees when including H (mean 0.06), was half that when excluding H (mean 0.13). Power- andWeibull-H models provided the greatest reduction in uncertainty, with regional Weibull-H models preferred because they reduce uncertainty in smaller-diameter classes (?40 cm D) that store about one-third of biomass per hectare in most forests. Propagating the relationships from destructively harvested tree biomass to each of the 327 plots from across the tropics shows that including H reduces errors from 41.8Mgha?1 (range 6.6 to 112.4) to 8.0Mgha?1 (?2.5 to 23.0). For all plots, aboveground live biomass was ?52.2 Mgha?1 (?82.0 to ?20.3 bootstrapped 95%CI), or 13%, lower when including H estimates, with the greatest relative reductions in estimated biomass in forests of the Brazilian Shield, east Africa, and Australia, and relatively little change in the Guiana Shield, central Africa and southeast Asia. Appreciably different stand structure was observed among regions across the tropical continents, with some storing significantly more biomass in small diameter stems, which affects selection of the best height models to reduce uncertainty and biomass reductions due to H. After accounting for variation in H, total biomass per hectare is greatest in Australia, the Guiana Shield, Asia, central and east Africa, and lowest in eastcentral Amazonia, W. Africa, W. Amazonia, and the Brazilian Shield (descending order). Thus, if tropical forests span 1668 million km2 and store 285 Pg C (estimate including H), then applying our regional relationships implies that carbon storage is overestimated by 35 PgC (31?39 bootstrapped 95%CI) if H is ignored, assuming that the sampled plots are an unbiased statistical representation of all tropical forest in terms of biomass and height factors. Our results show that tree H is an important allometric factor that needs to be included in future forest biomass estimates to reduce error in estimates of tropical carbon stocks and emissions due to deforestation.

Effects of the ruminal comminution rate and microbial contamination of particles on accuracy of in situ estimates of ruminal degradability and intestinal digestibility of feedstuffs.

Effects of considering the comminution rate -kc- and the correction of microbial contamination -using 15N techniques- of particles in the rumen on estimates of ruminally undegraded fractions and their intestinal digestibility were examined generating composite samples -from rumen-incubated residues- representative of the undegraded feed rumen outflow. The study used sunflower meal -SFM- and Italian ryegrass hay -RGH- and three rumen and duodenum cannulated wethers fed with a 40:60 RGH to concentrate diet -75 g DM/kgBW0.75-. Transit studies up to the duodenum with Yb-SFM and Eu-RGH marked samples showed higher kc values -/h- in SFM than in RGH -0.577 vs. 0.0892, p = 0.034-, whereas similar values occurred for the rumen passage rate -kp-. Estimates of ruminally undegraded and intestinal digestibility of all tested fractions decreased when kc was considered and also applying microbial correction. Thus, microbial uncorrected kp-based proportions of intestinal digested undegraded crude protein overestimated those corrected and kc-kp-based by 39% in SFM -0.146 vs. 0.105- and 761% in RGH -0.373 vs. 0.0433-. Results show that both kc and microbial contamination correction should be considered to obtain accurate in situ estimates in grasses, whereas in protein concentrates not considering kc is an important source of error.

Ice volume estimates from ground-penetrating radar surveys, western Nordenskiöld Land glaciers, Svalbard

As part of ongoing work within the SvalGlac project aimed to obtain a reliable estimate of the total ice volume of Svalbard glaciers and their potential contribution to sea level rise, in this contribution we present volume calculations, with detailed error estimates, for ten glaciers on western Nordenskiöld Land, central Spitsbergen, Svalbard. The volume estimates are based upon a dense net of GPR-retrieved ice thickness data collected over several field campaigns spanning the period 1999-2012, all of them except one within 2010-2012. The total area and volume of the ensemble are 113.38±0.09 km2 and 10.439±0.185 km3, respectively, while the individual areas, volumes and average ice thickness lie within 2.5-49.1 km2, 0.08-5.48 km3 and 29-108 m, respectively. The maximum recorded ice thickness, 265±15 m, corresponds to Fridtjovbreen, which has also the largest average thickness (108±1m). Available empirical formulae for Svalbard glaciers overestimate the total volume of these glaciers by 24% with respect to our calculation. On the basis of the pattern of scattering in the radargrams, we also analyse the hydrothermal structure of these glaciers. Nine out of ten are polythermal, while only one is entirely cold.

Ice volume estimates from ground-penetrating radar surveys, Wedel Jarlsberg Land glaciers, Svalbard

One of the aims of the SvalGlac project is to obtain an improved estimate, with reliable error estimates, of the volume of Svalbard glaciers and their potential contribution to sea level rise. As part of this work, we present volume calculations, with detailed error estimates, for eight glaciers on Wedel Jarlsberg Land, southern Spitsbergen, Svalbard. The volume estimates are based upon a dense net of GPR-retrieved ice thickness data collected over several field campaigns spanning the period 2004-2011. The total area and volume of the ensemble are 502.9±18.6 km2 and 80.72±2.85 km3, respectively. Excluding Ariebreen (a tiny glacier, menor que 0.4 km2 in area), the individual areas, volumes and average ice thickness lie within 4.7-141.0 km2, 0.30-25.85 km3 and 64-183 m, respectively. The maximum recorded ice thickness, ca. 619±13 m, is found in Austre Torellbreen. To estimate the ice volume of small non-echo-sounded tributary glaciers, we used a function providing the best fit to the ice thickness along the centre line of a collection of such tributaries where echo-soundings were available, and assuming parabolic cross-sections. We did some tests on the effect on the measured ice volumes of the distinct radio-wave velocity (RWV) of firn as compared to ice, and cold versus temperate ice, concluding that the changes in volume implied by such corrections were within the error bounds of our volume estimate using a constant RWV for the entire glacier inferred from common mid-point measurements on the upper ablation area.

Ground-penetrating radar surveys and ice volume estimates of Wedel Jarlsberg Land glaciers, Svalbard

We present volume calculations, with detailed error estimates, for eight glaciers on Wedel Jarlsberg Land, southern Spitsbergen, Svalbard, and compare them to those obtained from area-volume scaling relationships. The volume estimates are based upon a dense net of GPR-retrieved ice thickness data collected over several field campaigns spanning the period 2004-2011.

Accuracy estimates based on multifield variational principles

Recent developments to fit the so called Free Formulation into a variational framework have suggested the possibility of introducing a new category of error estimates for finite element computations. Such error estimates are based on differences between certain multifield functionals, which give the same value for the true solution. In the present paper the formulation of some estimates of this kind is introduced for elasticity and plate bending problems, and several examples of their performance are discussed. The observed numerical behavior of the new accuracy measures seems to be acceptable from an engineering point of view. However, further numerical experimentation is still needed to establish practical tolerance levels for real problems.

Analysis of advanced European nuclear fuel cycle scenarios including transmutation and economic estimates

Four European fuel cycle scenarios involving transmutation options (in coherence with PATEROS and CPESFR EU projects) have been addressed from a point of view of resources utilization and economic estimates. Scenarios include: (i) the current fleet using Light Water Reactor (LWR) technology and open fuel cycle, (ii) full replacement of the initial fleet with Fast Reactors (FR) burning U?Pu MOX fuel, (iii) closed fuel cycle with Minor Actinide (MA) transmutation in a fraction of the FR fleet, and (iv) closed fuel cycle with MA transmutation in dedicated Accelerator Driven Systems (ADS). All scenarios consider an intermediate period of GEN-III+ LWR deployment and they extend for 200 years, looking for long term equilibrium mass flow achievement. The simulations were made using the TR_EVOL code, capable to assess the management of the nuclear mass streams in the scenario as well as economics for the estimation of the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) and other costs. Results reveal that all scenarios are feasible according to nuclear resources demand (natural and depleted U, and Pu). Additionally, we have found as expected that the FR scenario reduces considerably the Pu inventory in repositories compared to the reference scenario. The elimination of the LWR MA legacy requires a maximum of 55% fraction (i.e., a peak value of 44 FR units) of the FR fleet dedicated to transmutation (MA in MOX fuel, homogeneous transmutation) or an average of 28 units of ADS plants (i.e., a peak value of 51 ADS units). Regarding the economic analysis, the main usefulness of the provided economic results is for relative comparison of scenarios and breakdown of LCOE contributors rather than provision of absolute values, as technological readiness levels are low for most of the advanced fuel cycle stages. The obtained estimations show an increase of LCOE ? averaged over the whole period ? with respect to the reference open cycle scenario of 20% for Pu management scenario and around 35% for both transmutation scenarios. The main contribution to LCOE is the capital costs of new facilities, quantified between 60% and 69% depending on the scenario. An uncertainty analysis is provided around assumed low and high values of processes and technologies.

Permanent deformation estimates of dynamic equipment foundations: Application to a gas turbine in granular soils

Permanent displacements of a gas turbine founded on a fine, poorly graded, and medium density sand are studied. The amplitudes and modes of vibration are computed using Barkan´s formulation, and the “High-Cycle Accumulation” (HCA) model is employed to account for accumulated deformations due to the high number of cycles. The methodology is simple: it can be easily incorporated into standard mathematical software, and HCA model parameters can be estimated based on granulometry and index properties. Special attention is devoted to ‘transient’ situations at equipment´s start-up, during which a range of frequencies – including frequencies that could be similar to the natural frequencies of the ground – is traversed. Results show that such transient situations could be more restrictive than stationary situations corresponding to normal operation. Therefore, checking the stationary situation only might not be enough, and studying the influence of transient situations on computed permanent displacements is needed to produce a proper foundation design

Extralimital Senegalese species during Marine Isotope Stages 5.5 and 11 in the Canary Islands (29° N): Sea surface temperature estimates

The presence of Harpa doris Röding, 1798 in marine deposits of the last interglacial period, ~130-120 ka (marine isotope stage or MIS 5.5) in the Canary Islands (Gran Canaria, Lanzarote and Fuerteventura) enabled us to compare this occurrence with its present habitat in the Gulf of Guinea and the Cape Verde Islands, well to the south. This comparison leads to the conclusion that sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the waters around the Canary Islands during the last interglacial period were at least 3.3 °C higher than today. H. doris is found in association with the large gastropod Persististrombus latus (Gmelin, 1791) as well as the coral Siderastrea radians (Pallas, 1766). The presence of these extralimital southern,warm-water species in the Canary Islands during the last interglacial period also implies a northward expansion of plankton-feeding larvae in seawater with a high chlorophyll-a content. Such conditionswould require a shortening of the southern arm of the cool Canary Current that dominates the waters around the Canary Islands at present. Marine deposits dating to ~400 ka (MIS 11) are also found on the Canary Islands. In these deposits, the presence of Saccostrea cucullata (Born, 1778) allows a comparison with its present habitat in the Gulf of Guinea. In this analysis, we conclude that SSTs in waters around the Canary Islands during this major interglacial period were at least 4.2 °C higher than today. Middle Pleistocene fossils of S. cucullata have also been found in the western Mediterranean Sea and Morocco, as well as the Cape Verde Islands. If these deposits also date to MIS 11, SST warming could have been a regional phenomenon, including much of the eastern Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea.

Ice volume estimates from ground-penetrating radar surveys, Wedel Jarlsberg Land glaciers, Svalbard

We present ground-penetrating radar (GPR)—based volume calculations, with associated error estimates, for eight glaciers on Wedel Jarlsberg Land, southwestern Spitsbergen, Svalbard, and compare them with those obtained from volume-area scaling relationships. The volume estimates are based upon GPR ice-thickness data collected during the period 2004–2013. The total area and volume of the ensemble are 502.91 ± 18.60 km2 and 91.91 ± 3.12 km3, respectively. The individual areas, volumes, and average ice thickness lie within 0.37–140.99 km2, 0.01–31.98 km3, and 28–227 m, respectively, with a maximum recorded ice thickness of 619 ± 13 m on Austre Torellbreen. To estimate the ice volume of unsurveyed tributary glaciers, we combine polynomial cross-sections with a function providing the best fit to the measured ice thickness along the center line of a collection of 22 surveyed tributaries. For the time-to-depth conversion of GPR data, we test the use of a glacierwide constant radio-wave velocity chosen on the basis of local or regional common midpoint measurements, versus the use of distinct velocities for the firn, cold ice, and temperate ice layers, concluding that the corresponding volume calculations agree with each other within their error bounds.