Improving probabilistic flood forecasting through a data assimilation scheme based on genetic programming

Opportunities offered by high performance computing provide a significant degree of promise in the enhancement of the performance of real-time flood forecasting systems. In this paper, a real-time framework for probabilistic flood forecasting through data assimilation is presented. The distributed rainfall-runoff real-time interactive basin simulator (RIBS) model is selected to simulate the hydrological process in the basin. Although the RIBS model is deterministic, it is run in a probabilistic way through the results of calibration developed in a previous work performed by the authors that identifies the probability distribution functions that best characterise the most relevant model parameters. Adaptive techniques improve the result of flood forecasts because the model can be adapted to observations in real time as new information is available. The new adaptive forecast model based on genetic programming as a data assimilation technique is compared with the previously developed flood forecast model based on the calibration results. Both models are probabilistic as they generate an ensemble of hydrographs, taking the different uncertainties inherent in any forecast process into account. The Manzanares River basin was selected as a case study, with the process being computationally intensive as it requires simulation of many replicas of the ensemble in real time.

Reduction in Calculated Uncertainty of a Noise Map by Improving the Traffic Model Data Through Two Phases

The influence of applying European default traffic values to the making of a noise map was evaluated in a typical environment like Palma de Mallorca. To assess these default traffic values, a first model has been created and compared with measured noise levels. Subsequently a second traffic model, improving the input data used for the first one, has been created and validated according to the deviations. Different methodologies were also examined for collecting model input data that would be of higher quality, by analysing the improvement generated in the reduction in the uncertainty of the noise map introduced by the road traffic noise emission

Coupled model of initiation and propagation of corrosion in reinforced concrete

Corrosion of reinforcing steel in concrete due to chloride ingress is one of the main causes of the deterioration of reinforced concrete structures. Structures most affected by such a corrosion are marine zone buildings and structures exposed to de-icing salts like highways and bridges. Such process is accompanied by an increase in volume of the corrosión products on the rebarsconcrete interface. Depending on the level of oxidation, iron can expand as much as six times its original volume. This increase in volume exerts tensile stresses in the surrounding concrete which result in cracking and spalling of the concrete cover if the concrete tensile strength is exceeded. The mechanism by which steel embedded in concrete corrodes in presence of chloride is the local breakdown of the passive layer formed in the highly alkaline condition of the concrete. It is assumed that corrosion initiates when a critical chloride content reaches the rebar surface. The mathematical formulation idealized the corrosion sequence as a two-stage process: an initiation stage, during which chloride ions penetrate to the reinforcing steel surface and depassivate it, and a propagation stage, in which active corrosion takes place until cracking of the concrete cover has occurred. The aim of this research is to develop computer tools to evaluate the duration of the service life of reinforced concrete structures, considering both the initiation and propagation periods. Such tools must offer a friendly interface to facilitate its use by the researchers even though their background is not in numerical simulation. For the evaluation of the initiation period different tools have been developed: Program TavProbabilidade: provides means to carry out a probability analysis of a chloride ingress model. Such a tool is necessary due to the lack of data and general uncertainties associated with the phenomenon of the chloride diffusion. It differs from the deterministic approach because it computes not just a chloride profile at a certain age, but a range of chloride profiles for each probability or occurrence. Program TavProbabilidade_Fiabilidade: carries out reliability analyses of the initiation period. It takes into account the critical value of the chloride concentration on the steel that causes breakdown of the passive layer and the beginning of the propagation stage. It differs from the deterministic analysis in that it does not predict if the corrosion is going to begin or not, but to quantifies the probability of corrosion initiation. Program TavDif_1D: was created to do a one dimension deterministic analysis of the chloride diffusion process by the finite element method (FEM) which numerically solves Fick’second Law. Despite of the different FEM solver already developed in one dimension, the decision to create a new code (TavDif_1D) was taken because of the need to have a solver with friendly interface for pre- and post-process according to the need of IETCC. An innovative tool was also developed with a systematic method devised to compare the ability of the different 1D models to predict the actual evolution of chloride ingress based on experimental measurements, and also to quantify the degree of agreement of the models with each others. For the evaluation of the entire service life of the structure: a computer program has been developed using finite elements method to do the coupling of both service life periods: initiation and propagation. The program for 2D (TavDif_2D) allows the complementary use of two external programs in a unique friendly interface: • GMSH - an finite element mesh generator and post-processing viewer • OOFEM – a finite element solver. This program (TavDif_2D) is responsible to decide in each time step when and where to start applying the boundary conditions of fracture mechanics module in function of the amount of chloride concentration and corrosion parameters (Icorr, etc). This program is also responsible to verify the presence and the degree of fracture in each element to send the Information of diffusion coefficient variation with the crack width. • GMSH - an finite element mesh generator and post-processing viewer • OOFEM – a finite element solver. The advantages of the FEM with the interface provided by the tool are: • the flexibility to input the data such as material property and boundary conditions as time dependent function. • the flexibility to predict the chloride concentration profile for different geometries. • the possibility to couple chloride diffusion (initiation stage) with chemical and mechanical behavior (propagation stage). The OOFEM code had to be modified to accept temperature, humidity and the time dependent values for the material properties, which is necessary to adequately describe the environmental variations. A 3-D simulation has been performed to simulate the behavior of the beam on both, action of the external load and the internal load caused by the corrosion products, using elements of imbedded fracture in order to plot the curve of the deflection of the central region of the beam versus the external load to compare with the experimental data.

Comparative assessment of global irradiation from a satellite estimate model (CM SAF) and on-ground measurements (SIAR): a Spanish case study

An analysis and comparison of daily and yearly solar irradiation from the satellite CM SAF database and a set of 301 stations from the Spanish SIAR network is performed using data of 2010 and 2011. This analysis is completed with the comparison of the estimations of effective irradiation incident on three different tilted planes (fixed, two axis tracking, north-south hori- zontal axis) using irradiation from these two data sources. Finally, a new map of yearly values of irradiation both on the horizontal plane and on inclined planes is produced mixing both sources with geostatistical techniques (kriging with external drift, KED) The Mean Absolute Difference (MAD) between CM SAF and SIAR is approximately 4% for the irradiation on the horizontal plane and is comprised between 5% and 6% for the irradiation incident on the inclined planes. The MAD between KED and SIAR, and KED and CM SAF is approximately 3% for the irradiation on the horizontal plane and is comprised between 3% and 4% for the irradiation incident on the inclined planes. The methods have been implemented using free software, available as supplementary ma- terial, and the data sources are freely available without restrictions.

Comparative assessment of global irradiation from a satellite estimate model (CM SAF) and on-ground measurements (SIAR): a Spanish case study

An analysis and comparison of daily and yearly solar irradiation from the satellite CM SAF database and a set of 301 stations from the Spanish SIAR network is performed using data of 2010 and 2011. This analysis is completed with the comparison of the estimations of effective irradiation incident on three different tilted planes (fixed, two axis tracking, north-south hori- zontal axis) using irradiation from these two data sources. Finally, a new map of yearly values of irradiation both on the horizontal plane and on inclined planes is produced mixing both sources with geostatistical techniques (kriging with external drift, KED) The Mean Absolute Difference (MAD) between CM SAF and SIAR is approximately 4% for the irradiation on the horizontal plane and is comprised between 5% and 6% for the irradiation incident on the inclined planes. The MAD between KED and SIAR, and KED and CM SAF is approximately 3% for the irradiation on the horizontal plane and is comprised between 3% and 4% for the irradiation incident on the inclined planes. The methods have been implemented using free software, available as supplementary ma- terial, and the data sources are freely available without restrictions.

Contribution to integration and coordination mechanisms for mobile distributed services in publish/subscribe networks

Esta tesis doctoral está enmarcada en dos diferentes pero complementarias áreas de investigación: las redes de Publicación/Subscripción y los servicios móviles distribuidos. Con el paso de los años las redes de Publicación/Subscripción han ido ofreciendo el soporte de comunicaciones desacopladas y ligeras que a su vez, han mejorado la distribución de la información en muchos escenarios de aplicación como lo son la ejecución de servicios distribuidos en entornos fijos. Los servicios móviles distribuidos han de ser desplegados en ambientes inalámbricos en donde los dispositivos móviles deben confiar en las mismas características que las redes de Publicación/Subscripción han estado ofreciendo a sus contrapartes fijos. En este contexto, una de las líneas de investigación pendientes consiste en cómo tomar ventaja de estas características, y cómo avanzar hacia nuevas soluciones no existentes con el fin de mejorar la integración entre los dispositivos fijos y móviles, y la ejecución de los servicios móviles distribuidos. En esta tesis doctoral se pretende avanzar en los mecanismos de integración y coordinación de los servicios móviles distribuidos en el contexto de las redes de Publicación/Subscripción. Los objetivos específicos de esta disertación están enfocados en lograr la integración de los sistemas de Publicación/Suscripción fijos y móviles, y la pro-visión de una versión de red de Publicación/Subscripción específica y uniforme que cuente con mecanismos de coordinación que mejoren la ejecución de los servicios móviles distribuidos. Los resultados de esta tesis doctoral están enmarcados en una versión específica de una red de Publicación/Subscripción que integra brokers fijos y móviles, y permite una coordinación totalmente desacoplada y mejorada entre dispositivos móviles que ejecutan fragmentos de servicios. Las contribuciones específicas son las siguientes: una nueva arquitectura de broker móvil que he llamado Rendezvous Mobile broker, un modelo abstracto de servicios móviles distribuidos coordinados sobre una red de Publicación/Subscripción, mejoras en los mecanismos de enrutamiento epidémicos para diseminar eventos de control producidos por fragmentos de servicios, una solución para soportar servicios altamente fragmentados y geográficamente dispersos, y finalmente una solución de interconexión entre dos dominios de red basados en Publicación/Subscripción: una red basada en el protocolo PubSubHubbub y otro en una red basada en el Publish/Subscribe Internet Routing Paradigm (PSIRP). Los experimentos llevados a cabo confirman que la versión específica de red de Pu-blicación/Subscripción propuesta incrementa el rendimiento de la red en términos de tiempo de espera entre nodos finales, permite una coordinación de los servicios móviles distribuidos más resistente a interrupciones y un mejor uso de los recursos de red, y finalmente logra exitosamente, con variaciones mínimas en el rendimiento de las comunicaciones, la interconexión entre estos dominios de Publicación/Subscripción diferentes. ABSTRACT This dissertation is made up of two different but complementary research areas: Publish/Subscribe networks and mobile distributed services. Over the years, Publish/Subscribe networks have been offering the lightweight and decoupled communication characteristics to improve the information distribution in several application domains such as the execution of distributed services. Mobile distributed services are set to be deployed in wireless environments where mobile devices must rely on the same features Publish/Subscribe networks can offer; so one of the pending research directions consists of how to take advantage of these features and further advance to-wards new un-existing solutions that enhance the integration between mobile and fixed systems and the execution of mobile distributed services. This dissertation seeks to advance the integration and coordination mechanisms of mobile distributed services in the context of Publish/Subscribe networks. The specific objectives aim to enable the integration of mobile and fixed Publish/Subscribe systems and provide a uniform and specific version of a Publish/Subscribe network with new coordination mechanisms that improve the execution of mobile distributed services. The results of this dissertation are enclosed in one specific version of a Publish/Subscribe network that integrates mobile and fixed brokers and coordinates the execution of mobile distributed services. These specific contributions are: a new architecture of a mobile broker I called Rendezvous Mobile Broker, an abstract model for coordinating mobile distributed services executions using a Publish/Subscribe net-work, new gossip routing solutions to disseminate events of services, mechanisms to support highly partitioned and geographically dispersed services and finally, an inter-networking solution between two Publish/Subscribe domains: a PubSubHubbub-based network and the Publish/Subscribe Internet Routing Paradigm (PSIRP)-based network. The experimental efforts confirm that the specific version of the Publish/Subscribe proposed in this dissertation improves the performance of the overall network in terms of end-to-end delay, enables a more resilience execution of mobile distributed services, a better usage of the existing network resources, and finally successfully achieves, with minor variations in the network performance, the internetworking between two different Publish/Subscribe domains.

Towards a Transfer Model of Scientific and Technological Knowledge: the Case of Mexico

This paper shows the development of a science-technological knowledge transfer model in Mexico, as a means to boost the limited relations between the scientific and industrial environments. The proposal is based on the analysis of eight organizations (research centers and firms) with varying degrees of skill in the practice of science-technological knowledge transfer, and carried out by the case study approach. The analysis highlights the synergistic use of the organizational and technological capabilities of each organization, as a means to identification of the knowledge transfer mechanisms best suited to enabling the establishment of cooperative processes, and achieve the R&D and innovation activities results.

Estimation of the solubility parameters of model plant surfaces and agrochemicals: a valuable tool for understanding plant surface interactions

Background Most aerial plant parts are covered with a hydrophobic lipid-rich cuticle, which is the interface between the plant organs and the surrounding environment. Plant surfaces may have a high degree of hydrophobicity because of the combined effects of surface chemistry and roughness. The physical and chemical complexity of the plant cuticle limits the development of models that explain its internal structure and interactions with surface-applied agrochemicals. In this article we introduce a thermodynamic method for estimating the solubilities of model plant surface constituents and relating them to the effects of agrochemicals. Results Following the van Krevelen and Hoftyzer method, we calculated the solubility parameters of three model plant species and eight compounds that differ in hydrophobicity and polarity. In addition, intact tissues were examined by scanning electron microscopy and the surface free energy, polarity, solubility parameter and work of adhesion of each were calculated from contact angle measurements of three liquids with different polarities. By comparing the affinities between plant surface constituents and agrochemicals derived from (a) theoretical calculations and (b) contact angle measurements we were able to distinguish the physical effect of surface roughness from the effect of the chemical nature of the epicuticular waxes. A solubility parameter model for plant surfaces is proposed on the basis of an increasing gradient from the cuticular surface towards the underlying cell wall. Conclusions The procedure enabled us to predict the interactions among agrochemicals, plant surfaces, and cuticular and cell wall components, and promises to be a useful tool for improving our understanding of biological surface interactions.

Estimation of the solubility parameters of model plant surfaces and agrochemicals: a valuable tool for understanding plant surface interactions

Background Most aerial plant parts are covered with a hydrophobic lipid-rich cuticle, which is the interface between the plant organs and the surrounding environment. Plant surfaces may have a high degree of hydrophobicity because of the combined effects of surface chemistry and roughness. The physical and chemical complexity of the plant cuticle limits the development of models that explain its internal structure and interactions with surface-applied agrochemicals. In this article we introduce a thermodynamic method for estimating the solubilities of model plant surface constituents and relating them to the effects of agrochemicals. Results Following the van Krevelen and Hoftyzer method, we calculated the solubility parameters of three model plant species and eight compounds that differ in hydrophobicity and polarity. In addition, intact tissues were examined by scanning electron microscopy and the surface free energy, polarity, solubility parameter and work of adhesion of each were calculated from contact angle measurements of three liquids with different polarities. By comparing the affinities between plant surface constituents and agrochemicals derived from (a) theoretical calculations and (b) contact angle measurements we were able to distinguish the physical effect of surface roughness from the effect of the chemical nature of the epicuticular waxes. A solubility parameter model for plant surfaces is proposed on the basis of an increasing gradient from the cuticular surface towards the underlying cell wall. Conclusions The procedure enabled us to predict the interactions among agrochemicals, plant surfaces, and cuticular and cell wall components, and promises to be a useful tool for improving our understanding of biological surface interactions.

Using modular neural networks to model self-consciousness and self-representation for artificial entities

Self-consciousness implies not only self or group recognition, but also real knowledge of one’s own identity. Self-consciousness is only possible if an individual is intelligent enough to formulate an abstract self-representation. Moreover, it necessarily entails the capability of referencing and using this elf-representation in connection with other cognitive features, such as inference, and the anticipation of the consequences of both one’s own and other individuals’ acts. In this paper, a cognitive architecture for self-consciousness is proposed. This cognitive architecture includes several modules: abstraction, self-representation, other individuals'representation, decision and action modules. It includes a learning process of self-representation by direct (self-experience based) and observational learning (based on the observation of other individuals). For model implementation a new approach is taken using Modular Artificial Neural Networks (MANN). For model testing, a virtual environment has been implemented. This virtual environment can be described as a holonic system or holarchy, meaning that it is composed of autonomous entities that behave both as a whole and as part of a greater whole. The system is composed of a certain number of holons interacting. These holons are equipped with cognitive features, such as sensory perception, and a simplified model of personality and self-representation. We explain holons’ cognitive architecture that enables dynamic self-representation. We analyse the effect of holon interaction, focusing on the evolution of the holon’s abstract self-representation. Finally, the results are explained and analysed and conclusions drawn.

Some insights for a relationship marketing model integrating SERVQUAL and customer loyalty in dental clinics

The demand of new services, the emergence of new business models, insufficient innovation, underestimation of customer loyalty and reluctance to adopt new management are evidence of the deficiencies and the lack of research about the relations between patients and dental clinics. In this article we propose the structure of a model of Relationship Marketing (RM) in the dental clinic that integrates information from SERVQUAL, Customer Loyalty (CL) and activities of RM and combines the vision of dentist and patient. The first pilot study on dentists showed that: they recognize the value of maintaining better patients however they don't perform RM actions to retain them. They have databases of patients but not sophisticated enough as compared to RM tools. They perceive that the patients value "Assurance" and "Empathy" (two dimensions of service quality). Finally, they indicate that a loyal patient not necessarily pays more by the service. The proposed model will be validated using Fuzzy Logic simulation and the ultimate goal of this research line is contributing a new definition of CL.

A model of amacrine and ganglion cells for optical information processing

Based on a previously reported logic cell structure (see SPIE, vol. 2038, p. 67-77, 1993), the two types of cells present at the inner and ganglion cell layers of the vertebrate retina and their intracellular response, as well as their connections with each other, have been simulated. These cells are amacrines and ganglion cells. The main scheme of the authors' configuration is shown in a figure. These two types of cells, as well as some of their possible interconnections, have been implemented with the authors' previously reported optical-processing element. As it has been shown, the authors' logic structure is able to process two optical input binary signals, being the output two logical functions. Moreover, if a delayed feedback from one of the two possible outputs to one or both of the inputs is introduced, a very different behaviour is obtained. Depending on the value of the time delay, an oscillatory output can be obtained from a constant optical input signal. Period and length pulses are dependent on delay values, both external and internal, as well as on other control signals. Moreover, a chaotic behaviour can be obtained too under certain conditions

Development of a Model for Security and Usability

This research addressed the development of a consolidated model designed especially to cover the security and usability attributes of a software product. As a starting point, we built a new usability model on the basis of well-known quality standards and models. We then used an existing security model to analyse the relationship between these two approaches. This analysis consisted of a systematic mapping study of the relationship between security and usability as global quality factors. We identified five relationship types: inverse, direct, relative, one-way inverse, and no relationship. Most authors agree that there is an inverse relationship between security and usability. However, this is not a unanimous finding, and this study unveils a number of open questions, like application domain dependency and the need to explore lower-level relationships between attribute subcharacteristics. In order to clarify the questions raised during the research, we conducted a second systematic mapping to further analyse the finer-grained structure of these factors, such as authentication as a subset of security and user efficiency as a subset of usability. The most relevant finding is that efficiency does not depend on the security level during the authentication process. There are other subfactors that require analysis. Accordingly, this research is the first part of a larger project to develop a full-blown consolidated model for security and usability.

Enhancing K-12 science education through a multi-device web tool to facilitate content integration and e-infrastructure access

An effective K-12 science education is essential to succeed in future phases of the curriculum and the e-Infrastructures for education provide new opportunities to enhance it. This paper presents ViSH Viewer, an innovative web tool to consume educational content which aims to facilitate e-Science infrastructures access through a next generation learning object called "Virtual Excursion". Virtual Excursions provide a new way to explore science in class by taking advantage of e-Infrastructure resources and their integration with other educational contents, resulting in the creation of a reusable, interoperable and granular learning object. In order to better understand how this tool can allow teachers and students a joyful exploration of e-Science, we also present three Virtual Excursion examples. Details about the design, development and the tool itself are explained in this paper as well as the concept, structure and metadata of the new learning object.

A computational model coupling mechanics and electrophysiology in spinal cord injury

Traumatic brain injury and spinal cord injury have recently been put under the spotlight as major causes of death and disability in the developed world. Despite the important ongoing experimental and modeling campaigns aimed at understanding the mechanics of tissue and cell damage typically observed in such events, the differenti- ated roles of strain, stress and their corresponding loading rates on the damage level itself remain unclear. More specif- ically, the direct relations between brain and spinal cord tis- sue or cell damage, and electrophysiological functions are still to be unraveled. Whereas mechanical modeling efforts are focusing mainly on stress distribution and mechanistic- based damage criteria, simulated function-based damage cri- teria are still missing. Here, we propose a new multiscale model of myelinated axon associating electrophysiological impairment to structural damage as a function of strain and strain rate. This multiscale approach provides a new framework for damage evaluation directly relating neuron mechanics and electrophysiological properties, thus provid- ing a link between mechanical trauma and subsequent func- tional deficits.