7 resultados para Mixed-effect models
em Universidad Politécnica de Madrid
Resumo:
The effects of conversion treatments, depending on ecological factors and silvicultural parameters (thinning intensity, thinning type and rotation, among others) have been studied during the last fifteen years in an experimental trial in Central Spain. The general climate is continental Mediterranean; soils are low depth and limy; vegetation is an homogeneous dense coppices of Quercus ilex with isolated Pinus nigra trees. The experimental design (three locations) includes different thinning intensities (from 0 to 100% of extracted basal area). Inventories have been carried out in 1994 and 2010; thinning treatments were done in 1995 and 2011. Analysis of the effects of the conversion treatment show the increment of diameter and height growth rates, the canopy recovery and the stand resprouting, finding differences in these effects between thinning treatments. Besides the induced changes at holm oak stand, the application of conversion treatment clearly changed the woodland dynamics. Fifteen years after the thinnings, floristic composition varied and an abundant pine regeneration was installed in the woodland. In this work we describe the changes between inventories in tree species composition and diameter distribution, specially in the case of black pine. The conversion treatment caused changes in forest dynamics in the short term, increasing biodiversity and diversifying the forest structure. The fast installation of Pinus regeneration suggests the potential of the zone for the establishment of multipurpose mixed Quercus-Pinus stands in wide areas where Quercus species were favoured by human populations for firewood production. Conversion treatment of coppices, with the creation of mixed stands, constitutes a good management alternative for extensive areas and an interesting technique to adaptation to global change.
Resumo:
We investigated how richness and composition of vascular plant species in the understory of a mixed hardwood forest stand varied with respect to the abundance and composition of the overstory. The stand is in central Spain and represents the southernmost range of distribution of several tree and herbaceous species in Europe. Understory species were identified in 46 quadrats (0.25 m2) where variables litter depth and light availability were measured. In addition, we estimated tree density, basal area, and percent basal area by tree species within 6-m-radius areas around each plot. Species richness and composition were studied using path analysis and scale-dependent geostatistical methods, respectively. We found that the relative abundance of certain trees species in the overstory was more important than total overstory abundance in explaining understory species richness. Richness decreased as soil litter depth increased, and soil litter increased as the relative proportion of Fagus sylvatica in the overstory increased, which accounted for a negative, indirect effect of Fagus sylvatica on richness. Regarding understory species composition, we found that some species distributed preferentially below certain tree species. For example, Melica uniflora was most frequent below Fagus sylvatica and Quercus petraea while the increasing proportion of Q. pyrenaica in the overstory favored the presence of Cruciata glabra, Arenaria montana, Prunus avium, Conopodium bourgaei, Holcus mollis, Stellaria media and Galium aparine in the understory. Overall, these results emphasize the importance of individual tree species in controlling the assemblage and richness of understory species in mixed stands. We conclude that soil litter accumulation is one way through which overstory composition shapes the understory community.
Resumo:
The influence of climate on forest stand composition, development and growth is undeniable. Many studies have tried to quantify the effect of climatic variables on forest growth and yield. These works become especially important because there is a need to predict the effects of climate change on the development of forest ecosystems. One of the ways of facing this problem is the inclusion of climatic variables into the classic empirical growth models. The work has a double objective: (i) to identify the indicators which best describe the effect of climate on Pinus halepensis growth and (ii) to quantify such effect in several scenarios of rainfall decrease which are likely to occur in the Mediterranean area. A growth mixed model for P. halepensis including climatic variables is presented in this work. Growth estimates are based on data from the Spanish National Forest Inventory (SNFI). The best results are obtained for the indices including rainfall, or rainfall and temperature together, with annual precipitation, precipitation effectiveness, Emberger?s index or free bioclimatic intensity standing out among them. The final model includes Emberger?s index, free bioclimatic intensity and interactions between competition and climate indices. The results obtained show that a rainfall decrease about 5% leads to a decrease in volume growth of 5.5?7.5% depending on site quality.
Mixing effect on volume growth of Fagus sylvatica and Pinus sylvestris is modulated by stand density
Resumo:
Despite the increasing relevance of mixed stands due to their potential benefits; little information is available with regard to the effect of mixtures on yield in forest systems. Hence, it is necessary to study inter-specific relationships, and the resulting yield in mixed stands, which may vary with stand development, site or stand density, etc. In Spain, the province of Navarra is considered one of the biodiversity reservoirs; however, mixed forests occupy only a small area, probably as a consequence of management plans, in which there is an excessive focus on the productivity aspect, favoring the presence of pure stands of the most marketable species. The aim of this paper is to study how growth efficiencies of beech (Fagus sylvatica) and pine (Pinus sylvestris) are modified by the admixture of the other species and to determine whether stand density modifies interspecific relationships and to what extent. Two models were fitted from Spanish National Forest Inventory data, for P. sylvestris and F. sylvatica respectively, which relate the growth efficiency of the species, i.e. the volume increment of the species divided by the species proportion by area, with dominant height, quadratic mean diameter, stocking degree, and the species proportions by area of each species. Growth efficiency of pine increased with the admixture of beech, decreasing this positive effect when stocking degree increased. However, the positive effect of pine admixture on beech growth was greater at higher stocking degrees. Growth efficiency of beech was also dependent on stand dominant height, resulting in a net negative mixing effect when stand dominant heights and stocking degrees were simultaneously low. There is a relatively large range of species proportions and stocking degrees which results in transgressive overyielding: higher volume increments in mixed stands than that of the most productive pure pine stands. We concluded that stocking degree is a key factor in between-species interactions, being the effects of mixing not always greater at higher stand densities, but it depends on species composition.
Resumo:
Short-run forecasting of electricity prices has become necessary for power generation unit schedule, since it is the basis of every profit maximization strategy. In this article a new and very easy method to compute accurate forecasts for electricity prices using mixed models is proposed. The main idea is to develop an efficient tool for one-step-ahead forecasting in the future, combining several prediction methods for which forecasting performance has been checked and compared for a span of several years. Also as a novelty, the 24 hourly time series has been modelled separately, instead of the complete time series of the prices. This allows one to take advantage of the homogeneity of these 24 time series. The purpose of this paper is to select the model that leads to smaller prediction errors and to obtain the appropriate length of time to use for forecasting. These results have been obtained by means of a computational experiment. A mixed model which combines the advantages of the two new models discussed is proposed. Some numerical results for the Spanish market are shown, but this new methodology can be applied to other electricity markets as well
Resumo:
In mixed stands, inter-specific competition can be lower than intra-specific competition when niche complementarity and/or facilitation between species prevail. These positive interactions can take place at belowground and/or aboveground levels. Belowground competition tends to be size symmetric while the aboveground competition is usually for light and almost always size-asymmetric. Interactions between forest tree species can be explored analyzing growth at tree level by comparing intra and inter-specific competition. At the same time, possible causes of niche complementarity can be inferred relating intra and inter-specific competition with the mode of competition, i.e. size-symmetric or sizeasymmetric. The aim of this paper is to further our understanding of the interactions between species and to detect possible causes of competition reduction in mixed stands of beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) with other species: pine?beech, oak?beech and fir?beech. To test whether species growth is better explained by size-symmetric and/or size-asymmetric competition, five different competition structures where included in basal area growth models fitted using data from the Spanish National Forest Inventory for the Pyrenees. These models considered either size-symmetry only (Reineke?s stand density index, SDI), size-asymmetry only (SDI of large trees or SDI of small trees), or both combined. In order to assess the influence of the admixture, these indices were introduced in two different ways, one of which was to consider that trees of all species compete in a similar way, and the other was to split the stand density indices into intra- and inter-specific competition components. The results showed that in pine?beech mixtures, there is a slightly negative effect of beech on pine basal area growth while beech benefitted from the admixture of Scots pine; this positive effect being greater as the proportion of pine trees in larger size classes increases. In oak?beech mixtures, beech growth was also positively influenced by the presence of oaks that were larger than the beech trees. The growth of oak, however, decreased when the proportion of beech in SDI increased, although the presence of beech in larger size classes promoted oak growth. Finally, in fir?beech mixtures, neither fir nor beech basal area growth were influenced by the presence of the other species. The results indicate that size-asymmetric is stronger than size-symmetric competition in these mixtures, highlighting the importance of light in competition. Positive species interactions in size-asymmetric competition involved a reduction of asymmetry in tree size-growth relationships.
Resumo:
Los montes Mediterráneos han experimentado múltiples cambios en las últimas décadas (tanto en clima como en usos), lo que ha conducido a variaciones en la distribución de especies. El aumento previsto de las temperaturas medias junto con la mayor variabilidad intra e inter anual en cuanto a la ocurrencia de eventos extremos o disturbios naturales (como periodos prolongados de sequía, olas de frío o calor, incendios forestales o vendavales) pueden dañar significativamente al regenerado, llevándolo hasta la muerte, y jugando un papel decisivo en la composición de especies y en la dinámica del monte. La amplitud ecológica de muchas especies forestales puede verse afectada, de forma que se esperan cambios en sus nichos actuales de regeneración. Sin embargo, la migración latitudinal de las especies en busca de mejores condiciones, podría ser una explicación demasiado simplista de un proceso mucho más complejo de interacción entre la temperatura y la precipitación, que afectaría a cada especie de un modo distinto. En este sentido tanto la capacidad de adaptación al estrés ambiental de una determinada especie, así como su habilidad para competir por los recursos limitados, podría significar variaciones dentro de una comunidad. Las características fisiológicas y morfológicas propias de cada especie se encuentran fuertemente relacionadas con el lugar donde cada una puede surgir, qué especies pueden convivir y como éstas responden a las condiciones ambientales. En este sentido, el conocimiento sobre las distintas respuestas ecofisiológicas observadas ante cambios ambientales puede ser fundamentales para la predicción de variaciones en la distribución de especies, composición de la comunidad y productividad del monte ante el cambio global. En esta tesis investigamos el grado de tolerancia y sensibilidad que cada una de las tres especies de estudio, coexistentes en el interior peninsular ibérico (Pinus pinea, Quercus ilex y Juniperus oxycedrus), muestra ante los factores abióticos de estrés típicos de la región Mediterránea. Nuestro trabajo se ha basado en la definición del nicho óptimo fisiológico para el regenerado de cada especie a través de la investigación en profundidad del efecto de la sequía, la temperatura y el ambiente lumínico. Para ello, hemos desarrollado un modelo de predicción de la tasa de asimilación de carbono que nos ha permitido identificar las condiciones óptimas ambientales donde el regenerado de cada especie podría establecerse con mayor facilidad. En apoyo a este trabajo y con la idea de estudiar el efecto de la sequía a nivel de toda la planta hemos desarrollado un experimento paralelo en invernadero. Aquí se han aplicado dos regímenes hídricos para estudiar las características fisiológicas y morfológicas de cada especie, sobre todo a nivel de raíz y crecimiento del tallo, y relacionarlas con las diferentes estrategias en el uso del agua de las especies. Por último, hemos estudiado los patrones de aclimatación y desaclimatación al frio de cada especie, identificando los periodos de sensibilidad a heladas, así como cuellos de botella donde la competencia entre especies podría surgir. A pesar de que el pino piñonero ha sido la especie objeto de la gestión de estas masas durante siglos, actualmente se encuentra en la posición más desfavorable para combatir el cambio global, presentado el nicho fisiológico más estrecho de las tres especies. La encina sin embargo, ha resultado ser la especie mejor cualificada para afrontar este cambio, seguida muy de cerca por el enebro. Nuestros resultados sugieren una posible expansión en el rango de distribución de la encina, un aumento en la presencia del enebro y una disminución progresiva del pino piñonero a medio plazo en estas masas. ABSTRACT Mediterranean forests have undergone multiple changes over the last decades (in both climate and land use), which have lead to variations in the distribution of species. The expected increase in mean annual temperature together with the greater inter and intra-annual variability in extreme events and disturbances occurrence (such as prolonged drought periods, cold or heat waves, wildfires or strong winds) can significantly damage natural regeneration, up to causing death, playing a decisive role on species composition and forest dynamics. The ecological amplitude for adaptation of many species can be affected in such a way that changes in the current regeneration niches of many species are expected. However, the forecasted poleward migration of species seeking better conditions could be an oversimplification of what is a more complex phenomenon of interactions among temperature and precipitation, that would affect different species in different ways. In this regard, either the ability to adapt to environmental stresses or to compete for limited resources of a single species in a mixed forest could lead to variations within a community. The ecophysiological and morphological traits specific to each species are strongly related to the place where each species can emerge, which species can coexist, and how they respond to environmental conditions. In this regard, the understanding of the ecophysiological responses observed against changes in environmental conditions can be essential for predicting variations in species distribution, community composition, and forest productivity in the context of global change. In this thesis we investigated the degree of tolerance and sensitivity that each of the three studied species, co-occurring in central of the Iberian Peninsula (Pinus pinea, Quercus ilex and Juniperus oxycedrus), show against the typical abiotic stress factors in the Mediterranean region. Our work is based on the optimal physiological niche for regeneration of each species through in-depth research on the effect of drought, temperature and light environment. For this purpose, we developed a model to predict the carbon assimilation rate which allows us to identify the optimal environmental conditions where regeneration from each species could establish itself more easily. To obtain a better understanding about the effect of low temperature on regeneration, we studied the acclimation and deacclimation patterns to cold of each species, identifying period of frost sensitivity, as well as bottlenecks where competition between species can arise. Finally, to support our results about the effect of water availabilty, we conducted a greenhouse experiment with a view of studying the drought effect at the whole plant level. Here, two watering regimes were applied in order to study the physiological and morphological traits of each species, mainly at the level of the root system and stem growth, and so relate them to the different water use strategies of the species. Despite the fact that stone pine has been the target species for centuries, nowadays this species is in the most unfavorable position to cope with climate change. Holm oak, however, resulted the species that is best adapted to tolerate the predicted changes, followed closely by prickly juniper. Our results suggest a feasible expansion of the distribution range in holm oak, an increase in the prickly juniper presence and a progressive decreasing of stone pine presence in the medium term in these stone pine-holm oak-prickly juniper mixed forests.