Some past decision theory models for euro construction model codes and for road drainage in Spain, and modest hints with multi-criteria methods for agro and environmental assurance

The authors are from UPM and are relatively grouped, and all have intervened in different academic or real cases on the subject, at different times as being of different age. With precedent from E. Torroja and A. P��ez in Madrid Spain Safety Probabilistic models for concrete about 1957, now in ICOSSAR conferences, author J.M. Ant��n involved since autumn 1967 for euro-steel construction in CECM produced a math model for independent load superposition reductions, and using it a load coefficient pattern for codes in Rome Feb. 1969, practically adopted for European constructions, giving in JCSS Lisbon Feb. 1974 suggestion of union for concrete-steel-al.. That model uses model for loads like Gumbel type I, for 50 years for one type of load, reduced to 1 year to be added to other independent loads, the sum set in Gumbel theories to 50 years return period, there are parallel models. A complete reliability system was produced, including non linear effects as from buckling, phenomena considered somehow in actual Construction Eurocodes produced from Model Codes. The system was considered by author in CEB in presence of Hydraulic effects from rivers, floods, sea, in reference with actual practice. When redacting a Road Drainage Norm in MOPU Spain an optimization model was realized by authors giving a way to determine the figure of Return Period, 10 to 50 years, for the cases of hydraulic flows to be considered in road drainage. Satisfactory examples were a stream in SE of Spain with Gumbel Type I model and a paper of Ven Te Chow with Mississippi in Keokuk using Gumbel type II, and the model can be modernized with more varied extreme laws. In fact in the MOPU drainage norm the redacting commission acted also as expert to set a table of return periods for elements of road drainage, in fact as a multi-criteria complex decision system. These precedent ideas were used e.g. in wide Codes, indicated in symposia or meetings, but not published in journals in English, and a condensate of contributions of authors is presented. The authors are somehow involved in optimization for hydraulic and agro planning, and give modest hints of intended applications in presence of agro and environment planning as a selection of the criteria and utility functions involved in bayesian, multi-criteria or mixed decision systems. Modest consideration is made of changing in climate, and on the production and commercial systems, and on others as social and financial.

Continuous multi-criteria methods for crop and soil conservation planning on La Colacha (R��o Cuarto, Province of Cordoba, Argentina)

Agro-areas of Arroyos Menores (La Colacha) west and south of Rand south of R?o Cuarto (Prov. of Cordoba, Argentina) basins are very fertile but have high soil loses. Extreme rain events, inundations and other severe erosions forming gullies demand urgently actions in this area to avoid soil degradation and erosion supporting good levels of agro production. The authors first improved hydrologic data on La Colacha, evaluated the systems of soil uses and actions that could be recommended considering the relevant aspects of the study area and applied decision support systems (DSS) with mathematic tools for planning of defences and uses of soils in these areas. These were conducted here using multi-criteria models, in multi-criteria decision making (MCDM); first of discrete MCDM to chose among global types of use of soils, and then of continuous MCDM to evaluate and optimize combined actions, including repartition of soil use and the necessary levels of works for soil conservation and for hydraulic management to conserve against erosion these basins. Relatively global solutions for La Colacha area have been defined and were optimised by Linear Programming in Goal Programming forms that are presented as Weighted or Lexicographic Goal Programming and as Compromise Programming. The decision methods used are described, indicating algorithms used, and examples for some representative scenarios on La Colacha area are given.

Discrete Multi-Criteria Methods for lands use and conservation planning on La Colacha in Arroyos Menores (R��o Cuarto, Province of C��rdoba, Argentina)

The study area is La Colacha sub-basins from Arroyos Menores basins, natural areas at West and South of R��o Cuarto in Province of C��rdoba of Argentina, fertile with loess soils and monsoon temperate climate, but with soil erosions including regressive gullies that degrade them progressively. Cultivated gently since some hundred sixty years, coordinated action planning became necessary to conserve lands while keeping good agro-production. The authors had improved data on soils and on hydrology for the study area, evaluated systems of soil uses and actions to be recommended and applied Decision Support Systems (DSS) tools for that, and were conducted to use discrete multi-criteria models (MCDM) for the more global views about soil conservation and hydraulic management actions and about main types of use of soils. For that they used weighted PROMETHEE, ELECTRE, and AHP methods with a system of criteria grouped as environmental, economic and social, and criteria from their data on effects of criteria. The alternatives resulting offer indication for planning depending somehow on sub basins and on selections of weights, but actions for conservation of soils and water management measures are recommended to conserve the basins conditions, actually sensibly degrading, mainly keeping actual uses of the lands.

Multi-criteria selection of structural adhesives to bond ABS parts obtained by rapid prototyping

One of the most used methods in rapidprototyping is Fused Deposition Modeling (FDM), which provides components with a reasonable strength in plastic materials such as ABS and has a low environmental impact. However, the FDM process exhibits low levels of surface finishing, difficulty in getting complex and/or small geometries and low consistency in ���slim��� elements of the parts. Furthermore, ���cantilever��� elements need large material structures to be supported. The solution of these deficiencies requires a comprehensive review of the three-dimensional part design to enhance advantages and performances of FDM and reduce their constraints. As a key feature of this redesign a novel method of construction by assembling parts with structuraladhesive joints is proposed. These adhesive joints should be designed specifically to fit the plastic substrate and the FDM manufacturing technology. To achieve this, the most suitable structuraladhesiveselection is firstly required. Therefore, the present work analyzes five different families of adhesives (cyanoacrylate, polyurethane, epoxy, acrylic and silicone), and, by means of the application of technical multi-criteria decision analysis based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), to select the structuraladhesive that better conjugates mechanical benefits and adaptation to the FDM manufacturing process

A multi-criteria optimization and decision-making approach for improvement of food engineering processes.

The objective of this study was to propose a multi-criteria optimization and decision-making technique to solve food engineering problems. This technique was demostrated using experimental data obtained on osmotic dehydratation of carrot cubes in a sodium chloride solution. The Aggregating Functions Approach, the Adaptive Random Search Algorithm, and the Penalty Functions Approach were used in this study to compute the initial set of non-dominated or Pareto-optimal solutions. Multiple non-linear regression analysis was performed on a set of experimental data in order to obtain particular multi-objective functions (responses), namely water loss, solute gain, rehydration ratio, three different colour criteria of rehydrated product, and sensory evaluation (organoleptic quality). Two multi-criteria decision-making approaches, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Tabular Method (TM), were used simultaneously to choose the best alternative among the set of non-dominated solutions. The multi-criteria optimization and decision-making technique proposed in this study can facilitate the assessment of criteria weights, giving rise to a fairer, more consistent, and adequate final compromised solution or food process. This technique can be useful to food scientists in research and education, as well as to engineers involved in the improvement of a variety of food engineering processes.

Efficient Monte Carlo methods for multi-dimensional learning with classifier chains

Multi-dimensional classification (MDC) is the supervised learning problem where an instance is associated with multiple classes, rather than with a single class, as in traditional classification problems. Since these classes are often strongly correlated, modeling the dependencies between them allows MDC methods to improve their performance ��� at the expense of an increased computational cost. In this paper we focus on the classifier chains (CC) approach for modeling dependencies, one of the most popular and highest-performing methods for multi-label classification (MLC), a particular case of MDC which involves only binary classes (i.e., labels). The original CC algorithm makes a greedy approximation, and is fast but tends to propagate errors along the chain. Here we present novel Monte Carlo schemes, both for finding a good chain sequence and performing efficient inference. Our algorithms remain tractable for high-dimensional data sets and obtain the best predictive performance across several real data sets.

Is building renovation truly sustainable? The need for applying a multi-criteria assessment through life cycle approach

The aim of the present research is to characterise the international scene in the field of building refurbishment, by thoroughly reviewing the literature relating to building renovation and systematising the results according to the different aspects considered by the authors. Even though there is certain consensus with respect to the criteria for the selection of energy efficiency measures, the assessment criteria differ broadly and widely. The present work highlights the lack of consensus on the assessment criteria and the need of harmonization. A holistic view is required in order to identify the most sustainable strategies in each particular case, considering social, environmental and economic impacts from a life cycle perspective.

How should the sustainability of the location of dry ports be measured? A proposed methodology using Bayesian networks and multi-criteria decision analysis

The global economic structure, with its decentralized production and the consequent increase in freight traffic all over the world, creates considerable problems and challenges for the freight transport sector. This situation has led shipping to become the most suitable and cheapest way to transport goods. Thus, ports are configured as nodes with critical importance in the logistics supply chain as a link between two transport systems, sea and land. Increase in activity at seaports is producing three undesirable effects: increasing road congestion, lack of open space in port installations and a significant environmental impact on seaports. These adverse effects can be mitigated by moving part of the activity inland. Implementation of dry ports is a possible solution and would also provide an opportunity to strengthen intermodal solutions as part of an integrated and more sustainable transport chain, acting as a link between road and railway networks. In this sense, implementation of dry ports allows the separation of the links of the transport chain, thus facilitating the shortest possible routes for the lowest capacity and most polluting means of transport. Thus, the decision of where to locate a dry port demands a thorough analysis of the whole logistics supply chain, with the objective of transferring the largest volume of goods possible from road to more energy efficient means of transport, like rail or short-sea shipping, that are less harmful to the environment. However, the decision of where to locate a dry port must also ensure the sustainability of the site. Thus, the main goal of this article is to research the variables influencing the sustainability of dry port location and how this sustainability can be evaluated. With this objective, in this paper we present a methodology for assessing the sustainability of locations by the use of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) and Bayesian Networks (BNs). MCDA is used as a way to establish a scoring, whilst BNs were chosen to eliminate arbitrariness in setting the weightings using a technique that allows us to prioritize each variable according to the relationships established in the set of variables. In order to determine the relationships between all the variables involved in the decision, giving us the importance of each factor and variable, we built a K2 BN algorithm. To obtain the scores of each variable, we used a complete cartography analysed by ArcGIS. Recognising that setting the most appropriate location to place a dry port is a geographical multidisciplinary problem, with significant economic, social and environmental implications, we consider 41 variables (grouped into 17 factors) which respond to this need. As a case of study, the sustainability of all of the 10 existing dry ports in Spain has been evaluated. In this set of logistics platforms, we found that the most important variables for achieving sustainability are those related to environmental protection, so the sustainability of the locations requires a great respect for the natural environment and the urban environment in which they are framed.

Sustainability assessment of energy saving measures: A multi-criteria approach for residential buildings retrofitting���A case study of the Spanish housing stock

The building sector is well known to be one of the key energy consumers worldwide. The renovation of existing buildings provides excellent opportunities for an effective reduction of energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions but it is essential to identify the optimal strategies. In this paper a multi-criteria methodology is proposed for the comparative analysis of retrofitting solutions. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and Life Cycle Cost (LCC) are combined by expressing environmental impacts in monetary values. A Pareto optimization is used to select the preferred strategies. The methodology is exemplified by a case study: the renovation of a representative housing block from the 1960s located in Madrid. Eight scenarios have been proposed, from the Business as Usual scenario (BAU), through Spanish Building Regulation requirements (for new buildings) up to the Passive House standard. Results show how current renovation strategies that are being applied in Madrid are far from being optimal solutions. The required additional investment, which is needed to obtain an overall performance improvement of the envelope compared with the common practice to date, is relatively low (8%) considering the obtained life cycle environmental and financial savings (43% and 45%, respectively).

Validaci��n de sistemas constructivos de los cerramientos de la edificaci��n mediante la aplicaci��n de los m��todos de decisi��n multicriterio : aplicaci��n al cat��logo de elementos constructivos del C��digo T��cnico de la Edificaci��n

Como punto de partida para el desarrollo de la Tesis, se mantiene la hip��tesis de que es posible establecer m��todos de evaluaci��n global sobre el grado de utilidad de los sistemas constructivos correspondientes a los cerramientos de la edificaci��n. Tales m��todos habr��an de posibilitar, de entre una serie finita de sistemas alternativos, cu��les de ellos son los objetivamente m��s adecuados para su selecci��n en un entorno de decisi��n concreto, y habr��an de permitir fundamentar la justificaci��n objetiva de tal decisi��n. Paralelamente a esta hip��tesis de car��cter general, se plante�� desde el inicio la necesidad de comprobaci��n de una hip��tesis de partida particular seg��n la cual los sistemas constructivos basados en la utilizaci��n de componentes prefabricados, o procesos de puesta en obra con un alto grado de industrializaci��n arrojar��an valores de utilidad mayores que los sistemas tradicionales basados en la alba��iler��a. Para la verificaci��n de estas dos hip��tesis de partida se ha procedido inicialmente a la selecci��n de un conjunto coherente de doce sistemas de cerramientos de la edificaci��n que pudiese servir como testigo de su diversidad potencial, para proceder a su valoraci��n comparativa. El m��todo de valoraci��n propuesto ha entrado a considerar una serie de factores de diversa ��ndole que no son reducibles a un ��nico par��metro o magnitud que permitiese una valoraci��n de tipo lineal sobre su idoneidad relativa, ni que permitiese establecer un grado de prelaci��n entre los distintos sistemas constructivos alternativos de manera absoluta. Para resolver este tour de force o desaf��o metodol��gico se ha acudido a la aplicaci��n de metodolog��as de valoraci��n que nos permitiesen establecer de forma racional dicha comparativa. Nos referimos a una serie de metodolog��as provenientes en primera instancia de las ciencias exactas, que reciben la denominaci��n de m��todos de ayuda a la decisi��n multicriterio, y en concreto el denominado m��todo ELECTRE. Inicialmente, se ha planteado la aplicaci��n del m��todo de an��lisis sobre doce sistemas constructivos seleccionados de tal forma que representasen de forma adecuada las tres categor��as establecidas para caracterizar la totalidad de sistemas constructivos posibles; por peso, grado de prefabricaci��n y grado de ventilaci��n. Si bien la combinaci��n de las tres categor��as b��sicas anteriormente se��aladas produce un total de 18 subcategor��as conceptuales, tomamos finalmente doce subcategor��as dado que consideramos que es un n��mero operativo suficiente por extenso para el an��lisis propuesto y elimina tipos no relevantes. Aplicado el m��todo propuesto, a estos doce sistemas constructivos ���testigo���, se constata el mayor grado de utilidad de los sistemas prefabricados, pesados y no ventilados. Al hilo del an��lisis realizado en la Parte II de la Tesis sobre los doce sistemas constructivos ���testigo���, se ha realizado un volcado de los sistemas constructivos incluidos en el Catalogo de Elementos Constructivos del CTE (versi��n 2010) sobre las dieciocho subcategor��as definidas en dicha Parte II para caracterizar los sistemas constructivos ���testigo���. Posteriormente, se ha procedido a una parametrizaci��n de la totalidad de sistemas constructivos para cerramientos de fachadas incluidos en este Cat��logo. La parametrizaci��n sistem��tica realizada ha permitido establecer, mediante el c��lculo del valor medio que adoptan los par��metros de los sistemas pertenecientes a una misma familia de las establecidas por el Cat��logo, una caracterizaci��n comparativa del grado de utilidad de dichas familias, tanto en lo relativo a cada uno de los par��metros como en una valoraci��n global de sus valores, de car��cter indicativo. Una vez realizada una parametrizaci��n completa de la totalidad de sistemas constructivos incluidos en el Cat��logo, se ha realizado una simulaci��n de aplicaci��n de la metodolog��a de validaci��n desarrollada en la Parte II de la presente Tesis, con el objeto de comprobar su adecuaci��n al caso. En conclusi��n, el desarrollo de una herramienta de apoyo a la decisi��n multicriterio aplicada al Cat��logo de Elementos constructivos del CTE se ha demostrado t��cnicamente viable y arroja resultados significativos. Se han dise��ado dos sistemas constructivos mediante la aplicaci��n de la herramienta desarrollada, uno de fachada no ventilada y otro de fachada ventilada. Comparados estos dos sistemas constructivos mejorados con otros sistemas constructivos analizados Se comprueba el alto grado de utilidad objetiva de los dos sistemas dise��ados en relaci��n con el resto. La realizaci��n de este ejercicio de dise��o de un sistema constructivo espec��fico, que responde a los requerimientos de un decisor concreto viene a demostrar, as�� pues, la utilidad del algoritmo propuesto en su aplicaci��n a los procesos de dise��o de los sistemas constructivos. La tesis incorpora dos innovaciones metodol��gicas y tres innovaciones instrumentales. ABSTRACT The starting point for the thesis is the hypothesis that it is possible to devise suitability degree evaluation methods of building enclosure systems. Such methods should allow optimizing appraisal, given a specific domain of decision, among a finite number of alternative systems, and provide objective justification of such decision. Along with the above mentioned general assumption, a second hypothesis whereby constructive systems based on the use of prefabricated components, or high industrialization degree work processes, would throw efficiency values higher than traditional masonry systems needed to be tested. In order to validate these two hypothesis a coherent set of twelve enclosure systems that could serve as a reference sample of their potential diversity was selected and a comparative evaluation was carried out. The valuation method proposed has considered several different factors that are neither reducible to a single parameter or magnitude that would allow a linear evaluation of their relative suitability nor allow to establishing an absolute priority ranking between different alternative constructive systems. In order to resolve this tour de force or methodological challenge, valuation methodologies that enable use establishing rational assessments were used. We are referring to a number of methodologies taken from the exact sciences field, usually known as aid methods for multi-criteria decision, in particular the so-called ELECTRE method. Even though the combination of the mentioned three basic categories result in eighteen conceptual sub categories, we are finally considering just twelve since we deem it adequately extended for the our intended purpose and eliminates non relevant instances. The method of analysis was initially applied to the set of twelve selected constructive systems is a way that they could represent adequately the three previously established categories set out to characterize all possible enclosure systems, namely weight, prefabrication degree and ventilation degree. Once the proposed method is applied to the sample systems, the higher efficiency of the prefabricated, heavy and not ventilated systems was confirmed. In line with the analysis in Part II of the thesis on the twelve chosen enclosure systems, it has done an uploading data of construction systems listed in the Catalogue of constructive elements of the CTE (version 2010) according the eighteen subcategories used in this part II to characterize the construction systems taken as sample. Subsequently, a parameterization of all enclosure facade systems included in this catalog has been undertaken. The systematic parameterization has allowed to set, by means of calculating the average values of the parameters of the systems belonging to the same family of those established by the Catalog, a comparative characterization of the efficiency degree of these families, both in relation to each parameter as to an overall evaluation of its values, in a indicative way. After the parameterization of all enclosure systems included in the Catalog, a simulation of validation methodology application developed in Part II of this Thesis has been made, in order to assess its consistency to the referred case. In conclusion, the development of a multi-criteria decision aid tool, applied to the CTE Catalog of constructive elements, has proved to be technically feasible and yields significant results. Two building systems through the application of the developed tool, a non-ventilated fa��ade and a ventilated fa��ade have been designed. Comparing these two improved construction systems with other building systems analyzed, we were able to assess the high degree of objective efficiency of the two systems designed in relation to the rest. The exercise of designing a specific enclosure system that meets the requirements of a particular decision-maker hence shows the suitability of the proposed algorithm applied to the process of enclosure systems design. This Thesis includes two methodological innovations and three instrumental innovations.

An Integrated Transport Planning Framework Involving a Combined Utility-Regret Approach

Sustainable transport planning requires an integrated approach involving strategic planning, impact analysis and multi-criteria evaluation. This study aims at relaxing the utility-based decision-making assumption by newly embedding anticipated-regret and combined utility-regret decision mechanisms in an integrated transport planning framework. The framework consists of a two-round Delphi survey, an integrated land-use and transport model for Madrid, and multi-criteria analysis. Results show that (i) regret-based ranking has similar mean but larger variance than utility-based ranking; (ii) the least-regret scenario forms a compromise between the desired and the expected scenarios; (iii) the least-regret scenario can lead to higher user benefits in the short-term and lower user benefits in the long-term; (iv) utility-based, regret-based and combined utility-regret-based multi-criteria analysis result in different rankings of policy packages; and (v) the combined utility-regret ranking is more informative compared with utility-based or regret-based ranking.

Mathematical models for the arrangement and the cleaning of the river basin and surroundings of the river sandy grounds to its passage by the city of Salta (Argentina)

The province of Salta is located the Northwest of Argentina in the border with Bolivia, Chile and Paraguay. Its Capital is the city of Salta that concentrates half of the inhabitants of the province and has grown to 600000 hab., from a small active Spanish town well founded in 1583. The city is crossed by the Arenales River descending from close mountains at North, source of water and end of sewers. But with actual growing it has become a focus of infection and of remarkable unhealthiness. It is necessary to undertake a plan for the recovery of the river, directed to the attainment of the well-being and to improve the life?s quality of the Community. The fundamental idea of the plan is to obtain an ordering of the river basin and an integral management of the channel and its surroundings, including the cleaning out. The improvement of the water?s quality, the healthiness of the surroundings and the improvement of the environment, must go hand by hand with the development of sport activities, of relaxation, tourism, establishment of breeding grounds, kitchen gardens, micro enterprises with clean production and other actions that contribute to their benefit by the society, that being a basic factor for their care and sustainable use. The present pollution is organic, chemical, industrial, domestic, due to the disposition of sweepings and sewer effluents that affects not only the flora and small fauna, destroying the biodiversity, but also to the health of people living in their margins. Within the plan it will be necessary to consider, besides hydric and environmental cleaning and the prevention of floods, the planning of the extraction of aggregates, the infrastructure and consolidation of margins works and the arrangement of all the river basin. It will be necessary to consider the public intervention at state, provincial and local level, and the private intervention. In the model it has been necessary to include the sub-model corresponding to the election of the entity to be the optimal instrument to reach the proposed objectives, giving an answer to the social, environmental and economic requirements. For that the authors have used multi-criteria decision methods to qualify and select alternatives, and for the programming of their implementation. In the model the authors have contemplated the short, average and long term actions. They conform a Paretooptimal alternative which secures the ordering, integral and suitable management of the basin of the Arenales River, focusing on its passage by the city of Salta.

Dominance Measuring Method Performance under Incomplete Information about Weights.

In multi-attribute utility theory, it is often not easy to elicit precise values for the scaling weights representing the relative importance of criteria. A very widespread approach is to gather incomplete information. A recent approach for dealing with such situations is to use information about each alternative?s intensity of dominance, known as dominance measuring methods. Different dominancemeasuring methods have been proposed, and simulation studies have been carried out to compare these methods with each other and with other approaches but only when ordinal information about weights is available. In this paper, we useMonte Carlo simulation techniques to analyse the performance of and adapt such methods to deal with weight intervals, weights fitting independent normal probability distributions orweights represented by fuzzy numbers.Moreover, dominance measuringmethod performance is also compared with a widely used methodology dealing with incomplete information on weights, the stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA). SMAA is based on exploring the weight space to describe the evaluations that would make each alternative the preferred one.

Drivers in adopting adaptation strategies to face increased water scarcity in agriculture. A case study in Do��ana (Spain) and Makueni (Kenya)

La agricultura es uno de los sectores m��s afectados por el cambio clim��tico. A pesar de haber demostrado a lo largo de la historia una gran capacidad para adaptarse a nuevas situaciones, hoy en d��a la agricultura se enfrenta a nuevos retos tales como satisfacer un elevado crecimiento en la demanda de alimentos, desarrollar una agricultura sostenible con el medio ambiente y reducir las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero. El potencial de adaptaci��n debe ser definido en un contexto que incluya el comportamiento humano, ya que ��ste juega un papel decisivo en la implementaci��n final de las medidas. Por este motivo, y para desarrollar correctamente pol��ticas que busquen influir en el comportamiento de los agricultores para fomentar la adaptaci��n a estas nuevas condiciones, es necesario entender previamente los procesos de toma de decisiones a nivel individual o de explotaci��n, as�� como los efectos de los factores que determinan las barreras o motivaciones de la implementaci��n de medidas. Esta Tesis doctoral trata de profundizar en el an��lisis de factores que influyen en la toma de decisiones de los agricultores para adoptar estrategias de adaptaci��n al cambio clim��tico. Este trabajo revisa la literatura actual y desarrolla un marco metodol��gico a nivel local y regional. Dos casos de estudio a nivel local (Do��ana, Espa��a y Makueni, Kenia) han sido llevados a cabo con el fin de explorar el comportamiento de los agricultores hacia la adaptaci��n. Estos casos de estudio representan regiones con notables diferencias en climatolog��a, impactos del cambio clim��tico, barreras para la adaptaci��n y niveles de desarrollo e influencia de las instituciones p��blicas y privadas en la agricultura. Mientras el caso de estudio de Do��ana representa un ejemplo de problemas asociados al uso y escasez del agua donde se espera que se agraven en el futuro, el caso de estudio de Makueni ejemplifica una zona fuertemente amenazada por las predicciones de cambio clim��tico, donde adicionalmente la falta de infraestructura y la tecnolog��a juegan un papel crucial para la implementaci��n de la adaptaci��n. El caso de estudio a nivel regional trata de generalizar en ��frica el comportamiento de los agricultores sobre la implementaci��n de medidas. El marco metodol��gico que se ha seguido en este trabajo abarca una amplia gama de enfoques y m��todos para la recolecci��n y an��lisis de datos. Los m��todos utilizados para la toma de datos incluyen la implementaci��n de encuestas, entrevistas, talleres con grupos de inter��s, grupos focales de discusi��n, revisi��n de estudios previos y bases de datos p��blicas. Los m��todos anal��ticos incluyen m��todos estad��sticos, an��lisis multi���criterio para la toma de decisiones, modelos de optimizaci��n de uso del suelo y un ��ndice compuesto calculado a trav��s de indicadores. Los m��todos estad��sticos se han utilizado con el fin de evaluar la influencia de los factores socio���econ��micos y psicol��gicos sobre la adopci��n de medidas de adaptaci��n. Dentro de estos m��todos se incluyen regresiones log��sticas, an��lisis de componentes principales y modelos de ecuaciones estructurales. Mientras que el an��lisis multi���criterio se ha utilizado con el fin de evaluar las opciones de adaptaci��n de acuerdo a las opiniones de las diferentes partes interesadas, el modelo de optimizaci��n ha tenido como fin analizar la combinaci��n ��ptima de medidas de adaptaci��n. El ��ndice compuesto se ha utilizado para evaluar a nivel regional la implementaci��n de medidas de adaptaci��n en ��frica. En general, los resultados del estudio ponen de relieve la gran importancia de considerar diferentes escalas espaciales a la hora de evaluar la implementaci��n de medidas de adaptaci��n al cambio clim��tico. El comportamiento de los agricultores es diferente entre lugares considerados a una escala local relativamente peque��a, por lo que la generalizaci��n de los patrones del comportamiento a escalas regionales o globales resulta relativamente compleja. Los resultados obtenidos han permitido identificar factores determinantes tanto socioecon��micos como psicol��gicos y calcular su efecto sobre la adopci��n de medidas de adaptaci��n. Adem��s han proporcionado una mejor comprensi��n del distinto papel que desempe��an los cinco tipos de capital (natural, f��sico, financiero, social y humano) en la implementaci��n de estrategias de adaptaci��n. Con este trabajo se proporciona informaci��n de gran inter��s en los procesos de desarrollo de pol��ticas destinadas a mejorar el apoyo de la sociedad a tomar medidas contra el cambio clim��tico. Por ��ltimo, en el an��lisis a nivel regional se desarrolla un ��ndice compuesto que muestra la probabilidad de adoptar medidas de adaptaci��n en las regiones de ��frica y se analizan las causas que determinan dicha probabilidad de adopci��n de medidas. ABSTRACT Agriculture is and will continue to be one of the sectors most affected by climate change. Despite having demonstrated throughout history a great ability to adapt, agriculture today faces new challenges such as meeting growing food demands, developing sustainable agriculture and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Adaptation policies planned on global, regional or local scales are ultimately implemented in decision���making processes at the farm or individual level so adaptation potentials have to be set within the context of individual behaviour and regional institutions. Policy instruments can play a formative role in the adoption of such policies by addressing incentives/disincentives that influence farmer���s behaviour. Hence understanding farm���level decision���making processes and the influence of determinants of adoption is crucial when designing policies aimed at fostering adoption. This thesis seeks to analyse the factors that influence decision���making by farmers in relation to the uptake of adaptation options. This work reviews the current knowledge and develops a methodological framework at local and regional level. Whilst the case studies at the local level are conducted with the purpose of exploring farmer���s behaviour towards adaptation the case study at the regional level attempts to up���scale and generalise theory on adoption of farmlevel adaptation options. The two case studies at the local level (Do��ana, Spain and Makueni, Kenya) encompass areas with different; climates, impacts of climate change, adaptation constraints and limits, levels of development, institutional support for agriculture and influence from public and private institutions. Whilst the Do��ana Case Study represents an area plagued with water���usage issues, set to be aggravated further by climate change, Makueni Case study exemplifies an area decidedly threatened by climate change where a lack of infrastructure and technology plays a crucial role in the uptake of adaptation options. The proposed framework is based on a wide range of approaches for collecting and analysing data. The approaches used for data collection include the implementation of surveys, interviews, stakeholder workshops, focus group discussions, a review of previous case studies, and public databases. The analytical methods include statistical approaches, multi criteria analysis for decision���making, land use optimisation models, and a composite index based on public databases. Statistical approaches are used to assess the influence of socio���economic and psychological factors on the adoption or support for adaptation measures. The statistical approaches used are logistic regressions, principal component analysis and structural equation modelling. Whilst a multi criteria analysis approach is used to evaluate adaptation options according to the different perspectives of stakeholders, the optimisation model analyses the optimal combination of adaptation options. The composite index is developed to assess adoption of adaptation measures in Africa. Overall, the results of the study highlight the importance of considering various scales when assessing adoption of adaptation measures to climate change. As farmer���s behaviour varies at a local scale there is elevated complexity when generalising behavioural patterns for farmers at regional or global scales. The results identify and estimate the effect of most relevant socioeconomic and psychological factors that influence adoption of adaptation measures to climate change. They also provide a better understanding of the role of the five types of capital (natural, physical, financial, social, and human) on the uptake of farm���level adaptation options. These assessments of determinants help to explain adoption of climate change measures and provide helpful information in order to design polices aimed at enhancing societal support for adaptation policies. Finally the analysis at the regional level develops a composite index which suggests the likelihood of the regions in Africa to adopt farm���level adaptation measures and analyses the main causes of this likelihood of adoption.

A novel motion tracking system for evaluation of functional rehabilitation of the upper limbs

Upper limb function impairment is one of the most common sequelae of central nervous system injury, especially in stroke patients and when spinal cord injury produces tetraplegia. Conventional assessment methods cannot provide objective evaluation of patient performance and the tiveness of therapies. The most common assessment tools are based on rating scales, which are inefficient when measuring small changes and can yield subjective bias. In this study, we designed an inertial sensor-based monitoring system composed of five sensors to measure and analyze the complex movements of the upper limbs, which are common in activities of daily living. We developed a kinematic model with nine degrees of freedom to analyze upper limb and head movements in three dimensions. This system was then validated using a commercial optoelectronic system. These findings suggest that an inertial sensor-based motion tracking system can be used in patients who have upper limb impairment through data integration with a virtual reality-based neuroretation system.