An interactive method of fuzzy probability elicitation in risk analysis

Expert knowledge is used to assign probabilities to events in many risk analysis models. However, experts sometimes find it hard to provide specific values for these probabilities, preferring to express vague or imprecise terms that are mapped using a previously defined fuzzy number scale. The rigidity of these scales generates bias in the probability elicitation process and does not allow experts to adequately express their probabilistic judgments. We present an interactive method for extracting a fuzzy number from experts that represents their probabilistic judgments for a given event, along with a quality measure of the probabilistic judgments, useful in a final information filtering and analysis sensitivity process.

Teaching based on the case method of building collective protection

One of the fundamental aspects in the adaptation of the teaching to the European higher education is changing based models of teacher education to models based on student learning. In this work we present an educational experience developed with the teaching method based on the case method, with a clearly multidisciplinary. The experience has been developed in the teaching of analysis and verification of safety rails. This is a multidisciplinary field that presents great difficulties during their teaching. The use of the case method has given good results in the competences achieved by students

Development of a method of assessment of the problem-solving competence at the technical University of Madrid.

The competence evaluation promoted by the European High Education Area entails a very important methodological change that requires guiding support to help lecturers carry out this new and complex task. In this regard, the Technical University of Madrid (UPM, by its Spanish acronym) has financed a series of coordinated projects with the objective of developing a model for teaching and evaluating core competences and providing support to lecturers. This paper deals with the problem-solving competence. The first step has been to elaborate a guide for teachers to provide a homogeneous way to asses this competence. This guide considers several levels of acquisition of the competence and provides the rubrics to be applied for each one. The guide has been subsequently validated with several pilot experiences. In this paper we will explain the problem-solving assessment guide for teachers and will show the pilot experiences that has been carried out. We will finally justify the validity of the method to assess the problem-solving competence.

Development of a method of assessment of the problem-solving competency at the Technical University of Madrid

The competence evaluation promoted by the European High Education Area entails a very important methodological change that requires guiding support to help lecturers carry out this new and complex task. In this regard, the Technical University of Madrid (UPM, by its Spanish acronym) has financed a series of coordinated projects with the objective of developing a model for teaching and evaluating core competences and providing support to lecturers. This paper deals with the problem solving competence. The first step has been to elaborate a guide for teachers to provide an homogeneous way to asses this competence. This guide considers several levels of acquisition of the competence and provided the rubrics to be applied for each one. The guide has been subsequently validated with several pilot experiences. In this paper we will explain the problem-solving assessment guide for teachers and will show the pilot experiences that has been carried out. We will finally justify the validity of the method to assess the problem solving competence.

Initial design with L2 Monge-Kantorovich theory for the Monge–Ampère equation method of freeform optics

The Monge–Ampère (MA) equation arising in illumination design is highly nonlinear so that the convergence of the MA method is strongly determined by the initial design. We address the initial design of the MA method in this paper with the L2 Monge-Kantorovich (LMK) theory, and introduce an efficient approach for finding the optimal mapping of the LMK problem. Three examples, including the beam shaping of collimated beam and point light source, are given to illustrate the potential benefits of the LMK theory in the initial design. The results show the MA method converges more stably and faster with the application of the LMK theory in the initial design.

A bankable method of assessing the performance of a CPV plant

Concentrating Photovoltaics (CPV) is an alternative to flat-plate module photovoltaic (PV) technology. The bankability of CPV projects is an important issue to pave the way toward a swift and sustained growth in this technology. The bankability of a PV plant is generally addressed through the modeling of its energy yield under a baseline loss scenario, followed by an on-site measurement campaign aimed at verifying its energy performance. This paper proposes a procedure for assessing the performance of a CPV project, articulated around four main successive steps: Solar Resource Assessment, Yield Assessment, Certificate of Provisional Acceptance, and Certificate of Final Acceptance. This methodology allows the long-term energy production of a CPV project to be estimated with an associated uncertainty of ≈5%. To our knowledge, no such method has been proposed to the CPV industry yet, and this critical situation has hindered or made impossible the completion of several important CPV projects undertaken in the world. The main motive for this proposed method is to bring a practical solution to this urgent problem. This procedure can be operated under a wide range of climatic conditions, and makes it possible to assess the bankability of a CPV plant whose design uses any of the technologies currently available on the market. The method is also compliant with both international standards and local regulations. In consequence, its applicability is both general and international.

Effect of type of fiber, site of fermentation, and method of analysis on digestibility of soluble and insoluble fiber in rabbits

The effect of type of fiber, site of fermetation, method for quantifying insoluble and soluble dietary fiber, and their correction for intestinal mucin on fiber digestibility were examined in rabbits. Three diets differing in soluble fiber were formulated (8.5% soluble fiber, on DM basis, in the low soluble fiber [LSF] diet; 10.2% in the medium soluble fiber [MSF] diet; and 14.5% in the high soluble fiber [HSF] diet). They were obtained by replacing half of the dehydrated alfalfa in the MSF diet with a mixture of beet and apple pulp (HSF diet) or with a mix of oat hulls and soybean protein (LSF diet). Thirty rabbits with ileal T-cannulas were used to determine ileal and fecal digestibility. Cecal digestibility was determined by difference between fecal and ileal digestibility. Insoluble fiber was measured as NDF, insoluble dietary fiber (IDF), and in vitro insoluble fiber, whereas soluble fiber was calculated as the difference between total dietary fiber (TDF) and NDF (TDF_NDF), IDF (TDF-IDF), and in vitro insoluble fiber (TDF-in vitro insoluble fiber). The intestinal mucin content was used to correct the TDF and soluble fiber digestibility. Ileal and fecal concentration of mucin increased from the LSF to the HSF diet group (P < 0.01). Once corrected for intestinal mucin, ileal and fecal digestibility of TDF and soluble fiber increased whereas cecal digestibility decreased (P < 0.01). Ileal digestibility of TDF increased from the LSF to the HSF diet group (12.0 vs. 28.1%; P < 0.01), with no difference in the cecum (26.4%), resulting in a higher fecal digestibility from the LSF to the HSF diet group (P < 0.01). Ileal digestibility of insoluble fiber increased from the LSF to the HSF diet group (11.3 vs. 21.0%; P < 0.01), with no difference in the cecum (13.9%) and no effect of fiber method, resulting in a higher fecal digestibility for rabbits fed the HSF diet compared with the MSF and LSF diets groups (P < 0.01).Fecal digestibility of NDF was higher compared with IDF or in vitro insoluble fiber (P < 0.01). Ileal soluble fiber digestibility was higher for the HSF than for the LSF diet group (43.6 vs. 14.5%; P < 0.01) and fiber method did not affect it. Cecal soluble fiber digestibility decreased from the LSF to the HSF diet group (72.1 vs. 49.2%; P < 0.05). The lowest cecal and fecal soluble fiber digestibility was measured using TDF-NDF (P < 0.01). In conclusion, a correction for intestinal mucin is necessary for ileal TDF and soluble fiber digestibility whereas the selection of the fiber method has a minor relevance. The inclusion of sugar beet and apple pulp increased the amount of TDF fermented in the small intestine.

A consistent method of analysis of RC shell structures

In this paper some topics related to the design of reinforced concrete (RC) shells are addressed. The influence of the reinforcement layout on the service and ultimate behavior of the shell structure is commented. The well established methodology for dimensioning and verifying RC sections of beam structures is extended. In this way it is possible to treat within a unified procedure the design and verification of RC two dimensional structures, in particular membrane and shell structures. Realistic design situations as multiple steel farnilies and non orthogonal reinforcement layout can be handled. Finally, some examples and applications of the proposed methodology are presented.

Theoretical Stark broadening parameters for spectral lines arising from the 2p5ns, 2p5np and 2p5nd electronic configurations of MgIII

In the present work we report theoretical Stark widths and shifts calculated using the Griem semi-empirical approach, corresponding to 237 spectral lines of MgIII. Data are presented for an electron density of 1017 cm?3 and temperatures T = 0.5?10.0 (104 K). The matrix elements used in these calculations have been determined from 23 configurations of MgIII: 2s22p6, 2s22p53p, 2s22p54p, 2s22p54f and 2s22p55f for even parity and 2s22p5ns (n = 3?6), 2s22p5nd (n = 3?9), 2s22p55g and 2s2p6np (n = 3?8) for odd parity. For the intermediate coupling (IC) calculations, we use the standard method of least-squares fitting from experimental energy levels by means of the Cowan computer code. Also, in order to test the matrix elements used in our calculations, we present calculated values of 70 transition probabilities of MgIII spectral lines and 14 calculated values of radiative lifetimes of MgIII levels. There is good agreement between our calculations and experimental radiative lifetimes. Spectral lines of MgIII are relevant in astrophysics and also play an important role in the spectral analysis of laboratory plasma. Theoretical trends of the Stark broadening parameter versus the temperature for relevant lines are presented. No values of Stark parameters can be found in the bibliography.

Modeling and optimization of frequencies on congested bus lines

In this paper some mathematical programming models are exposed in order to set the number of services on a specified system of bus lines, which are intended to assist high demand levels which may arise because of the disruption of Rapid Transit services or during the celebration of massive events. By means of this model two types of basic magnitudes can be determined, basically: a) the number of bus units assigned to each line and b) the number of services that should be assigned to those units. In these models, passenger flow assignment to lines can be considered of the system optimum type, in the sense that the assignment of units and of services is carried out minimizing a linear combination of operation costs and total travel time of users. The models consider delays experienced by buses as a consequence of the get in/out of the passengers, queueing at stations and the delays that passengers experience waiting at the stations. For the case of a congested strategy based user optimal passenger assignment model with strict capacities on the bus lines, the use of the method of successive averages is shown.

Theoretical Transition Probabilities, Oscillator Strengths and Radiative Lifetimes Of Levels In Pb IV

Transitionprobabilities and oscillatorstrengths of 176 spectral lines with astrophysical interest arising from 5d10ns (n = 7,8), 5d10np (n = 6,7), 5d10nd (n = 6,7), 5d105f, 5d105g, 5d10nh (n = 6,7,8), 5d96s2, and 5d96s6p configurations, and radiativelifetimes for 43 levels of PbIV, have been calculated. These values were obtained in intermediate coupling (IC) and using relativistic Hartree–Fock calculations including core-polarization effects. For the IC calculations, we use the standard method of least-square fitting from experimental energy levels by means of the Cowan computer code. The inclusion in these calculations of the 5d107p and 5d105f configurations has facilitated a complete assignment of the energy levels in the PbIV. Transitionprobabilities, oscillatorstrengths, and radiativelifetimes obtained are generally in good agreement with the experimental data.

Si(100) versus Ge(100): Watching the interface formation for the growth of III-V-based solar cells on abundant substrates

We investigated the atomic surface properties of differently prepared silicon and germanium (100) surfaces during metal-organic vapour phase epitaxy/chemical vapour deposition (MOVPE/MOCVD), in particular the impact of the MOVPE ambient, and applied reflectance anisotropy/difference spectroscopy (RAS/RDS) in our MOVPE reactor to in-situ watch and control the preparation on the atomic length scale for subsequent III-V-nucleation. The technological interest in the predominant opto-electronic properties of III-V-compounds drives the research for their heteroepitaxial integration on more abundant and cheaper standard substrates such as Si(100) or Ge(100). In these cases, a general task must be accomplished successfully, i.e. the growth of polar materials on non-polar substrates and, beyond that, very specific variations such as the individual interface formation and the atomic step structure, have to be controlled. Above all, the method of choice to grow industrial relevant high-performance device structures is MOVPE, not normally compatible with surface and interface sensitive characterization tools, which are commonly based on ultrahigh vacuum (UHV) ambients. A dedicated sample transfer system from MOVPE environment to UHV enabled us to benchmark the optical in-situ spectra with results from various surfaces science instruments without considering disruptive contaminants. X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) provided direct observation of different terminations such as arsenic and phosphorous and verified oxide removal under various specific process parameters. Absorption lines in Fourier-transform infrared (FTIR) spectra were used to identify specific stretch modes of coupled hydrides and the polarization dependence of the anti-symmetric stretch modes distinguished different dimer orientations. Scanning tunnelling microscopy (STM) studied the atomic arrangement of dimers and steps and tip-induced H-desorption proved the saturation of dangling bonds after preparati- n. In-situ RAS was employed to display details transiently such as the presence of H on the surface at lower temperatures (T <; 800°C) and the absence of Si-H bonds at elevated annealing temperature and also surface terminations. Ge buffer growth by the use of GeH4 enables the preparation of smooth surfaces and leads to a more pronounced amplitude of the features in the spectra which indicates improvements of the surface quality.

Assessing the landscape value of public works: validation of the method in the lowlands of the middle section of the Tajo river (Spain)

This paper proposes a method of landscape characterisation and assessment of public works associated with fluvial landscapes, which is validated in the middle section of the Tajo River. In this method, a set of criteria is identified that unifies various characteristics of the landscape associated to the infrastructures. A specific weight is then assigned to each criterion in such a way as to produce a semi-quantitative value ranging from a minimum value of 0 to a maximum value of 10. Taken together, these criteria enable us to describe and assess the value of the public works selected for study, in this case helping us to evaluate the sections of the River Tajo analysed in our study area. Accordingly, the value of all the infrastructures associated to a stretch of the river covering several hundred kilometres was determined and after dividing this stretch into sections, they were compared under equivalent conditions to provide a hierarchal ranking.

Ab initio calculations of Ca III Stark broadening parameters,transition probabilities and radiative lifetimes

We have determined matrix elements for all experimental configurations of Ca III, including the 3s3p63d configuration. These values have been obtained using intermediate coupling (IC). For these IC calculations, we have used the standard method of least-squares fitting from the experimental energy levels, using the computer code developed by Robert Cowan. In this paper, using these matrix elements, we report the calculated values of the Ca III Stark widths and shifts for 148 spectral lines, of 56 Ca III spectral line transition probabilities and of eight radiative lifetimes of Ca III levels. The Stark widths and shifts, calculated using the Griem semi-empirical approach, correspond to the spectral lines of Ca III and are presented for an electron density of 1017 cm?3 and temperatures T = 1.0?10.0 (×104 K). The theoretical trends of the Stark broadening parameter versus the temperature are presented for transitions that are of astrophysical interest. There is good agreement between our calculations, for transition probabilities and radiative lifetimes, and the experimental values presented in the literature. We have not been able to find any values for the Stark parameters in the references.

Analysis of Magnetic Nozzles For Space Plasma Thrusters = Análisis de Toberas Magnéticas para Motores Espaciales de Plasma

Esta tesis presenta un análisis teórico del funcionamiento de toberas magnéticas para la propulsión espacial por plasmas. El estudio está basado en un modelo tridimensional y bi-fluido de la expansión supersónica de un plasma caliente en un campo magnético divergente. El modelo básico es ampliado progresivamente con la inclusión de términos convectivos dominantes de electrones, el campo magnético inducido por el plasma, poblaciones electrónicas múltiples a distintas temperaturas, y la capacidad de integrar el flujo en la región de expansión lejana. La respuesta hiperbólica del plasma es integrada con alta precisión y eficiencia haciendo uso del método de las líneas características. Se realiza una caracterización paramétrica de la expansión 2D del plasma en términos del grado de magnetización de iones, la geometría del campo magnético, y el perfil inicial del plasma. Se investigan los mecanismos de aceleración, mostrando que el campo ambipolar convierte la energía interna de electrones en energía dirigida de iones. Las corrientes diamagnéticas de Hall, que pueden hallarse distribuidas en el volumen del plasma o localizadas en una delgada capa de corriente en el borde del chorro, son esenciales para la operación de la tobera, ya que la fuerza magnética repulsiva sobre ellas es la encargada de confinar radialmente y acelerar axialmente el plasma. El empuje magnético es la reacción a esta fuerza sobre el motor. La respuesta del plasma muestra la separación gradual hacia adentro de los tubos de iones respecto de los magnéticos, lo cual produce la formación de corrientes eléctricas longitudinales y pone el plasma en rotación. La ganancia de empuje obtenida y las pérdidas radiales de la pluma de plasma se evalúan en función de los parámetros de diseño. Se analiza en detalle la separación magnética del plasma aguas abajo respecto a las líneas magnéticas (cerradas sobre sí mismas), necesaria para la aplicación de la tobera magnética a fines propulsivos. Se demuestra que tres teorías existentes sobre separación, que se fundamentan en la resistividad del plasma, la inercia de electrones, y el campo magnético que induce el plasma, son inadecuadas para la tobera magnética propulsiva, ya que producen separación hacia afuera en lugar de hacia adentro, aumentando la divergencia de la pluma. En su lugar, se muestra que la separación del plasma tiene lugar gracias a la inercia de iones y la desmagnetización gradual del plasma que tiene lugar aguas abajo, que permiten la separación ilimitada del flujo de iones respecto a las líneas de campo en condiciones muy generales. Se evalúa la cantidad de plasma que permanece unida al campo magnético y retorna hacia el motor a lo largo de las líneas cerradas de campo, mostrando que es marginal. Se muestra cómo el campo magnético inducido por el plasma incrementa la divergencia de la tobera magnética y por ende de la pluma de plasma en el caso propulsivo, contrariamente a las predicciones existentes. Se muestra también cómo el inducido favorece la desmagnetización del núcleo del chorro, acelerando la separación magnética. La hipótesis de ambipolaridad de corriente local, común a varios modelos de tobera magnética existentes, es discutida críticamente, mostrando que es inadecuada para el estudio de la separación de plasma. Una inconsistencia grave en la derivación matemática de uno de los modelos más aceptados es señalada y comentada. Incluyendo una especie adicional de electrones supratérmicos en el modelo, se estudia la formación y geometría de dobles capas eléctricas en el interior del plasma. Cuando dicha capa se forma, su curvatura aumenta cuanto más periféricamente se inyecten los electrones supratérmicos, cuanto menor sea el campo magnético, y cuanto más divergente sea la tobera magnética. El plasma con dos temperaturas electrónicas posee un mayor ratio de empuje magnético frente a total. A pesar de ello, no se encuentra ninguna ventaja propulsiva de las dobles capas, reforzando las críticas existentes frente a las propuestas de estas formaciones como un mecanismo de empuje. Por último, se presenta una formulación general de modelos autosemejantes de la expansión 2D de una pluma no magnetizada en el vacío. El error asociado a la hipótesis de autosemejanza es calculado, mostrando que es pequeño para plumas hipersónicas. Tres modelos de la literatura son particularizados a partir de la formulación general y comparados. Abstract This Thesis presents a theoretical analysis of the operation of magnetic nozzles for plasma space propulsion. The study is based on a two-dimensional, two-fluid model of the supersonic expansion of a hot plasma in a divergent magnetic field. The basic model is extended progressively to include the dominant electron convective terms, the plasma-induced magnetic field, multi-temperature electron populations, and the capability to integrate the plasma flow in the far expansion region. The hyperbolic plasma response is integrated accurately and efficiently with the method of the characteristic lines. The 2D plasma expansion is characterized parametrically in terms of the ion magnetization strength, the magnetic field geometry, and the initial plasma profile. Acceleration mechanisms are investigated, showing that the ambipolar electric field converts the internal electron energy into directed ion energy. The diamagnetic electron Hall current, which can be distributed in the plasma volume or localized in a thin current sheet at the jet edge, is shown to be central for the operation of the magnetic nozzle. The repelling magnetic force on this current is responsible for the radial confinement and axial acceleration of the plasma, and magnetic thrust is the reaction to this force on the magnetic coils of the thruster. The plasma response exhibits a gradual inward separation of the ion streamtubes from the magnetic streamtubes, which focuses the jet about the nozzle axis, gives rise to the formation of longitudinal currents and sets the plasma into rotation. The obtained thrust gain in the magnetic nozzle and radial plasma losses are evaluated as a function of the design parameters. The downstream plasma detachment from the closed magnetic field lines, required for the propulsive application of the magnetic nozzle, is investigated in detail. Three prevailing detachment theories for magnetic nozzles, relying on plasma resistivity, electron inertia, and the plasma-induced magnetic field, are shown to be inadequate for the propulsive magnetic nozzle, as these mechanisms detach the plume outward, increasing its divergence, rather than focusing it as desired. Instead, plasma detachment is shown to occur essentially due to ion inertia and the gradual demagnetization that takes place downstream, which enable the unbounded inward ion separation from the magnetic lines beyond the turning point of the outermost plasma streamline under rather general conditions. The plasma fraction that remains attached to the field and turns around along the magnetic field back to the thruster is evaluated and shown to be marginal. The plasmainduced magnetic field is shown to increase the divergence of the nozzle and the resulting plasma plume in the propulsive case, and to enhance the demagnetization of the central part of the plasma jet, contrary to existing predictions. The increased demagnetization favors the earlier ion inward separation from the magnetic field. The local current ambipolarity assumption, common to many existing magnetic nozzle models, is critically discussed, showing that it is unsuitable for the study of plasma detachment. A grave mathematical inconsistency in a well-accepted model, related to the acceptance of this assumption, is found out and commented on. The formation and 2D shape of electric double layers in the plasma expansion is studied with the inclusion of an additional suprathermal electron population in the model. When a double layer forms, its curvature is shown to increase the more peripherally suprathermal electrons are injected, the lower the magnetic field strength, and the more divergent the magnetic nozzle is. The twoelectron- temperature plasma is seen to have a greater magnetic-to-total thrust ratio. Notwithstanding, no propulsive advantage of the double layer is found, supporting and reinforcing previous critiques to their proposal as a thrust mechanism. Finally, a general framework of self-similar models of a 2D unmagnetized plasma plume expansion into vacuum is presented and discussed. The error associated with the self-similarity assumption is calculated and shown to be small for hypersonic plasma plumes. Three models of the literature are recovered as particularizations from the general framework and compared.