Desarrollo de un modelo de formación del valor inmobiliario en áreas de crecimiento suburbano. Aplicación a la comarca de la Vega Baja del Segura en el litoral alicantino

Una de las principales líneas de investigación de la economía urbana es el comportamiento del mercado inmobiliario y sus relaciones con la estructura territorial. Dentro de este contexto, la reflexión sobre el significado del valor urbano, y abordar su variabilidad, constituye un tema de especial importancia, dada la relevancia que ha supuesto y supone la actividad inmobiliaria en España. El presente estudio ha planteado como principal objetivo la identificación de aquellos factores, ligados a la localización que explican la formación del valor inmobiliario y justifican su variabilidad. Definir este proceso precisa de una evaluación a escala territorial estableciendo aquellos factores de carácter socioeconómico, medioambiental y urbanístico que estructuran el desarrollo urbano, condicionan la demanda de inmuebles y, por tanto, los procesos de formación de su valor. El análisis se centra en valores inmobiliarios residenciales localizados en áreas litorales donde la presión del sector turístico ha impulsado un amplio. Para ello, el ámbito territorial seleccionado como objeto de estudio se sitúa en la costa mediterránea española, al sur de la provincia de Alicante, la comarca de la Vega Baja del Segura. La zona, con una amplia diversidad ecológica y paisajística, ha mantenido históricamente una clara distinción entre espacio urbano y espacio rural. Esta dicotomía ha cambiado drásticamente en las últimas décadas, experimentándose un fuerte crecimiento demográfico y económico ligado a los sectores turístico e inmobiliario, aspectos que han tenido un claro reflejo en los valores inmobiliarios. Este desarrollo de la comarca es un claro ejemplo de la política expansionista de los mercados de suelo que ha tenido lugar en la costa española en las dos últimas décadas y que derivado en la regeneración de un amplio tejido suburbano. El conocimiento del marco territorial ha posibilitado realizar un análisis de variabilidad espacial mediante un tratamiento masivo de datos, así como un análisis econométrico que determina los factores que se valoran positivamente y negativamente por el potencial comprador. Estas relaciones permiten establecer diferentes estructuras matemáticas basadas en los modelos de precios hedónicos, que permiten identificar rasgos diferenciales en los ámbitos económico, social y espacial y su incidencia en el valor inmobiliario. También se ha sistematizado un proceso de valoración territorial a través del análisis del concepto de vulnerabilidad estructural, entendido como una situación de fragilidad debida a circunstancias tanto sociales como económicas, tanto actual como de tendencia en el futuro. Actualmente, esta estructura de demanda de segunda residencia y servicios ha mostrado su fragilidad y ha bloqueado el desarrollo económico de la zona al caer drásticamente la inversión en el sector inmobiliario por la crisis global de la deuda. El proceso se ha agravado al existir un tejido industrial marginal al que no se ha derivado inversiones importantes y un abandono progresivo de las explotaciones agropecuarias. El modelo turístico no sería en sí mismo la causa del bloqueo del desarrollo económico comarcal, sino la forma en que se ha implantado en la Costa Blanca, con un consumo del territorio basado en el corto plazo, poco respetuoso con aspectos paisajísticos y medioambientales, y sin una organización territorial global. Se observa cómo la vinculación entre índices de vulnerabilidad y valor inmobiliario no es especialmente significativa, lo que denota que las tendencias futuras de fragilidad no han sido incorporadas a la hora de establecer los precios de venta del producto inmobiliario analizado. El valor muestra una clara dependencia del sistema de asentamiento y conservación de las áreas medioambientales y un claro reconocimiento de tipologías propias del medio rural aunque vinculadas al sector turístico. En la actualidad, el continuo descenso de la demanda turística ha provocado una clara modificación en la estructura poblacional y económica. Al incorporar estas modificaciones a los modelos especificados podemos comprobar un verdadero desmoronamiento de los valores. Es posible que el remanente de vivienda construida actualmente vaya dirigido a un potencial comprador que se encuentra en retroceso y que se vincula a unos rasgos territoriales ya no existentes. Encontrar soluciones adaptables a la oferta existente, implica la viabilidad de renovación del sistema poblacional o modificaciones a nivel económico. La búsqueda de respuestas a estas cuestiones señala la necesidad de recanalizar el desarrollo, sin obviar la potencialidad del ámbito. SUMMARY One of the main lines of research regarding the urban economy focuses on the behavior of the real estate market and its relationship to territorial structure. Within this context, one of the most important themes involves considering the significance of urban property value and dealing with its variability, particularly given the significant role of the real estate market in Spain, both in the past and present. The main objective of this study is to identify those factors linked to location, which explain the formation of property values and justify their variability. Defining this process requires carrying out an evaluation on a territorial scale, establishing the socioeconomic, environmental and urban planning factors that constitute urban development and influence the demand for housing, thereby defining the processes by which their value is established. The analysis targets residential real estate values in coastal areas where pressure from the tourism industry has prompted large-scale transformations. Therefore, the focal point of this study is an area known as Vega Baja del Segura, which is located on the Spanish Mediterranean coast in southern Alicante (province). Characterized by its scenic and ecological diversity, this area has historically maintained a clear distinction between urban and rural spaces. This dichotomy has drastically changed in past decades due to the large increase in population attributed to the tourism and real estate markets – factors which have had a direct effect on property values. The development of this area provides a clear example of the expansionary policies which have affected the housing market on the coast of Spain during the past two decades, resulting in a large increase in suburban development. Understanding the territorial framework has made it possible to carry out a spatial variability analysis through massive data processing, as well as an econometric analysis that determines the factors that are evaluated positively and negatively by potential buyers. These relationships enable us to establish different mathematical systems based on hedonic pricing models that facilitate the identification of differential features in the economic, social and spatial spheres, and their impact on property values. Additionally, a process for land valuation was established through an analysis of the concept of structural vulnerability, which is understood to be a fragile situation resulting from either social or economic circumstances. Currently, this demand structure for second homes and services has demonstrated its fragility and has inhibited the area’s economic development as a result of the drastic fall in investment in the real estate market, due to the global debt crisis. This process has been worsened by the existence of a marginal industrial base into which no important investments have been channeled, combined with the progressive abandonment of agricultural and fishing operations. In and of itself, the tourism model did not inhibit the area’s economic development, rather it is the result of the manner in which it was implemented on the Costa Brava, with a land consumption based on the short-term, lacking respect for landscape and environmental aspects and without a comprehensive organization of the territory. It is clear that the link between vulnerability indexes and property values is not particularly significant, thereby indicating that future fragility trends have not been incorporated into the problem in terms of establishing the sale prices of the analyzed real estate product in question. Urban property values are clearly dependent on the system of development and environmental conservation, as well as on a clear recognition of the typologies that characterize rural areas, even those linked to the tourism industry. Today, the continued drop in tourism demand has provoked an obvious modification in the populational and economic structures. By incorporating these changes into the specified models, we can confirm a real collapse in values. It’s possible that the surplus of already-built homes is currently being marketed to a potential buyer who is in recession and linked to certain territorial characteristics that no longer exist. Finding solutions that can be adapted to the existing offer implies the viability of renewing the population system or carrying out modifications on an economic level. The search for answers to these questions suggests the need to reform the development model, without leaving out an area’s potentiality.

Modelling of chloride penetration into non-saturated concrete: Case study application for real marine off shore structures

The aim of this paper is to explain the chloride concentration profiles obtained experimentally from control samples of an offshore platform after 25 years of service life. The platform is located 12 km off the coast of the Brazilian province Rio Grande do Norte, in the north-east of Brazil. The samples were extracted at different orientations and heights above mean sea level. A simple model based on Fick’s second law is considered and compared with a finite element model which takes into account transport of chloride ions by diffusion and convection. Results show that convective flows significantly affect the studied chloride penetrations. The convection velocity is obtained by fitting the finite element solution to the experimental data and seems to be directly proportional to the height above mean sea level and also seems to depend on the orientation of the face of the platform. This work shows that considering solely diffusion as transport mechanism does not allow a good prediction of the chloride profiles. Accounting for capillary suction due to moisture gradients permits a better interpretation of the material’s behaviour.

Dilemas modernos: el proyecto urbano en Montevideo y la costa balnearia

Para analizar este complejo proceso se ha ensayado un recorrido que sigue los avatares y alternativas que se producen en la incorporación de las ideas que se gestaron en el urbanismo moderno en el Uruguay de la primera mitad del siglo XX. Ideas que se intensifican a partir de los años veinte. A través de una primer parte, se analizan las ideas que transitan los primeros años del urbanismo hasta los años treinta. Este es un período de preconstitución disciplinaria y búsqueda de imágenes urbanas análogas que por afinidad cultural, en general, recurren al repertorio europeo. Es un momento de constitución ciudadana y de su espacio cívico y, para ello, se responde al imaginario colectivo con propuestas urbanas que reflejan las ideas de ciudad presentes en el panorama internacional. Al aplicarse a un territorio sin tensiones sociales, las ideas y propuestas urbanas se presentan como una oportunidad de ensayo para los técnicos extranjeros y nacionales. El mito de la oportunidad que ofrece el Nuevo Mundo hace que un personaje reconocido llegue, casi sin prefigurarlo, a hacer una breve visita por Montevideo. La segunda parte describe al viajero Le Corbusier con sus ideas, sus propuestas sudamericanas y el Plan de Montevideo. La fugaz visita deja huellas indelebles, en el huésped y en sus anfitriones. Los caminos rápidamente se bifurcan pese a eventuales reencuentros. En Le Corbusier, Montevideo implica un punto de inflexión en la serie de planes que va a gestar. En los anfitriones abrazando aun más la bandera de la renovación desplegada antes de la visita, pese a no compartir el plan corbusiano para Montevideo, los impulsa a seguir el proceso de construcción moderna. A partir de la tercera parte, se indaga en el impulso moderno dejado por Le Corbusier, junto a la casi coincidente “celebración del futuro” donde se propone el Plan del Centenario para Montevideo. A partir del plan y su debate, sus consiguientes marchas y contramarchas, se muestra que las ideas modernas al igual que en toda celebración tuvieron momentos de apoteosis y entusiasmo, quedando luego, tan sólo las cenizas y los resplandores de la celebración, materializadas en algunos fragmentos de ideas urbanas. En la cuarta parte se analizan las ideas y propuestas en torno al proyecto urbano de la centralidad capitalina. Marchas y contramarchas, protagonizadas por anfitriones e integrantes del auditorio de Le Corbusier muestran un devenir donde se entrecruza la ciudad moderna, el crecimiento real, con las ideas urbanas que el amplio espectro cultural arquitectónico uruguayo conserva desde su constitución. La quinta parte desarrolla las propuestas estructuradas en torno a la expansión del balneario verificando las ideas de urbanismo que con naturalidad evaden la transposición literal o acrítica y se acondicionan y acomodan al territorio, conservando con intensidad, la esencia del pensamiento moderno. La relación entre la urbanidad y el horizonte marino permite el ensayo de una serie de estrategias proyectuales para la urbanización del borde costero que caracterizan y definen a la rambla montevideana y al conjunto de proyectos balnearios modernos. ABSTRACT In order to analyze this complex process, we have pursued a path that takes into consideration the vicissitudes and alternatives produced in the incorporation of the ideas conceived in modern urbanism in Uruguay in the first half of the twentieth century. These ideas have been intensified since the 1920s. The first part of the thesis analyzes the ideas of the first years of urbanism until the 1930s. This was a period of disciplinary pre-constitution and search of analogous urban images which, due to their cultural affinity, in general, resorted to the European repertoire. It was a moment of citizen constitution and the establishment of its civic space, and for that the collective imagination was responded with urban designs that reflected the ideas of the city, which could also be found in the international scene. As they were applied to a territory without social tensions, the ideas and urban designs were presented as an opportunity for rehearsal to foreign and national technicians. The myth of the opportunity offered by the New World caused the arrival of a well-known character that, almost without foreshadowing it, paid a short visit to Montevideo. The second part describes Le Corbusier, the traveler, with his ideas, his South American schemes and the Plan for Montevideo. His fleeting visit left a deep mark on the guest and on his hosts. The paths rapidly forked despite the sporadic reunions. For Le Corbusier, Montevideo marked a turning point in the series of plans that he would conceive. The hosts, who embraced the flag of renovation raised prior to his arrival, in spite of not sharing Le Corbusier’s plan for Montevideo, were encouraged to follow the process of modern construction. The third part of the thesis explores the modern impulse left by Le Corbusier, as well as the almost coincidental “celebration of the future” in which the Plan for the Centenary of Montevideo was proposed. From the plan and its discussion, its consequent progress and obstacles, it was shown that the modern ideas, as in any other celebration, had its moments of apotheosis and enthusiasm, only remaining the ashes and the glow of the celebration, materialized in some fragments of the urban design ideas. The fourth part discusses the ideas and schemes on the urban project of the centrality of the capital. Progress and obstacles, led by the hosts and the members of the auditorium of Le Corbusier, showed a development in which the modern city and the actual growth merged with the urban design ideas preserved, since its constitution, by the wide spectrum of the Uruguayan architectonic culture. Finally, the fifth part develops the schemes formulated for the expansion of the resort and verifies the ideas of urbanism which naturally avoid the literal or uncritical transposition and adjust and accommodate to the territory, preserving with intensity the essence of modern thought. The relation between urbanity and the marine horizon allowed the rehearsal of a series of design strategies for the urbanization of coastal areas which characterize and define the promenade of Montevideo and the whole set of projects of modern resorts.

Modelling of chloride penetration into non-saturated concrete: case study application for real marine offshore structures

The aim of this paper is to explain the chloride concentration profiles obtained experimentally from control samples of an offshore platform after 25 years of service life. The platform is located 12 km off the coast of the Brazilian province Rio Grande do Norte, in the north-east of Brazil. The samples were extracted at different orientations and heights above mean sea level. A simple model based on Fick’s second law is considered and compared with a finite element model which takes into account transport of chloride ions by diffusion and convection. Results show that convective flows significantly affect the studied chloride penetrations. The convection velocity is obtained by fitting the finite element solution to the experimental data and seems to be directly proportional to the height above mean sea level and also seems to depend on the orientation of the face of the platform. This work shows that considering solely diffusion as transport mechanism does not allow a good prediction of the chloride profiles. Accounting for capillary suction due to moisture gradients permits a better interpretation of the material’s behaviour