How should the sustainability of the location of dry ports be measured? A proposed methodology using Bayesian networks and multi-criteria decision analysis

The global economic structure, with its decentralized production and the consequent increase in freight traffic all over the world, creates considerable problems and challenges for the freight transport sector. This situation has led shipping to become the most suitable and cheapest way to transport goods. Thus, ports are configured as nodes with critical importance in the logistics supply chain as a link between two transport systems, sea and land. Increase in activity at seaports is producing three undesirable effects: increasing road congestion, lack of open space in port installations and a significant environmental impact on seaports. These adverse effects can be mitigated by moving part of the activity inland. Implementation of dry ports is a possible solution and would also provide an opportunity to strengthen intermodal solutions as part of an integrated and more sustainable transport chain, acting as a link between road and railway networks. In this sense, implementation of dry ports allows the separation of the links of the transport chain, thus facilitating the shortest possible routes for the lowest capacity and most polluting means of transport. Thus, the decision of where to locate a dry port demands a thorough analysis of the whole logistics supply chain, with the objective of transferring the largest volume of goods possible from road to more energy efficient means of transport, like rail or short-sea shipping, that are less harmful to the environment. However, the decision of where to locate a dry port must also ensure the sustainability of the site. Thus, the main goal of this article is to research the variables influencing the sustainability of dry port location and how this sustainability can be evaluated. With this objective, in this paper we present a methodology for assessing the sustainability of locations by the use of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) and Bayesian Networks (BNs). MCDA is used as a way to establish a scoring, whilst BNs were chosen to eliminate arbitrariness in setting the weightings using a technique that allows us to prioritize each variable according to the relationships established in the set of variables. In order to determine the relationships between all the variables involved in the decision, giving us the importance of each factor and variable, we built a K2 BN algorithm. To obtain the scores of each variable, we used a complete cartography analysed by ArcGIS. Recognising that setting the most appropriate location to place a dry port is a geographical multidisciplinary problem, with significant economic, social and environmental implications, we consider 41 variables (grouped into 17 factors) which respond to this need. As a case of study, the sustainability of all of the 10 existing dry ports in Spain has been evaluated. In this set of logistics platforms, we found that the most important variables for achieving sustainability are those related to environmental protection, so the sustainability of the locations requires a great respect for the natural environment and the urban environment in which they are framed.

A multi-criteria optimization and decision-making approach for improvement of food engineering processes.

The objective of this study was to propose a multi-criteria optimization and decision-making technique to solve food engineering problems. This technique was demostrated using experimental data obtained on osmotic dehydratation of carrot cubes in a sodium chloride solution. The Aggregating Functions Approach, the Adaptive Random Search Algorithm, and the Penalty Functions Approach were used in this study to compute the initial set of non-dominated or Pareto-optimal solutions. Multiple non-linear regression analysis was performed on a set of experimental data in order to obtain particular multi-objective functions (responses), namely water loss, solute gain, rehydration ratio, three different colour criteria of rehydrated product, and sensory evaluation (organoleptic quality). Two multi-criteria decision-making approaches, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Tabular Method (TM), were used simultaneously to choose the best alternative among the set of non-dominated solutions. The multi-criteria optimization and decision-making technique proposed in this study can facilitate the assessment of criteria weights, giving rise to a fairer, more consistent, and adequate final compromised solution or food process. This technique can be useful to food scientists in research and education, as well as to engineers involved in the improvement of a variety of food engineering processes.

Multi-criteria selection of structural adhesives to bond ABS parts obtained by rapid prototyping

One of the most used methods in rapidprototyping is Fused Deposition Modeling (FDM), which provides components with a reasonable strength in plastic materials such as ABS and has a low environmental impact. However, the FDM process exhibits low levels of surface finishing, difficulty in getting complex and/or small geometries and low consistency in “slim” elements of the parts. Furthermore, “cantilever” elements need large material structures to be supported. The solution of these deficiencies requires a comprehensive review of the three-dimensional part design to enhance advantages and performances of FDM and reduce their constraints. As a key feature of this redesign a novel method of construction by assembling parts with structuraladhesive joints is proposed. These adhesive joints should be designed specifically to fit the plastic substrate and the FDM manufacturing technology. To achieve this, the most suitable structuraladhesiveselection is firstly required. Therefore, the present work analyzes five different families of adhesives (cyanoacrylate, polyurethane, epoxy, acrylic and silicone), and, by means of the application of technical multi-criteria decision analysis based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), to select the structuraladhesive that better conjugates mechanical benefits and adaptation to the FDM manufacturing process

Continuous multi-criteria methods for crop and soil conservation planning on La Colacha (Río Cuarto, Province of Cordoba, Argentina)

Agro-areas of Arroyos Menores (La Colacha) west and south of Rand south of R?o Cuarto (Prov. of Cordoba, Argentina) basins are very fertile but have high soil loses. Extreme rain events, inundations and other severe erosions forming gullies demand urgently actions in this area to avoid soil degradation and erosion supporting good levels of agro production. The authors first improved hydrologic data on La Colacha, evaluated the systems of soil uses and actions that could be recommended considering the relevant aspects of the study area and applied decision support systems (DSS) with mathematic tools for planning of defences and uses of soils in these areas. These were conducted here using multi-criteria models, in multi-criteria decision making (MCDM); first of discrete MCDM to chose among global types of use of soils, and then of continuous MCDM to evaluate and optimize combined actions, including repartition of soil use and the necessary levels of works for soil conservation and for hydraulic management to conserve against erosion these basins. Relatively global solutions for La Colacha area have been defined and were optimised by Linear Programming in Goal Programming forms that are presented as Weighted or Lexicographic Goal Programming and as Compromise Programming. The decision methods used are described, indicating algorithms used, and examples for some representative scenarios on La Colacha area are given.

Some past decision theory models for euro construction model codes and for road drainage in Spain, and modest hints with multi-criteria methods for agro and environmental assurance

The authors are from UPM and are relatively grouped, and all have intervened in different academic or real cases on the subject, at different times as being of different age. With precedent from E. Torroja and A. Páez in Madrid Spain Safety Probabilistic models for concrete about 1957, now in ICOSSAR conferences, author J.M. Antón involved since autumn 1967 for euro-steel construction in CECM produced a math model for independent load superposition reductions, and using it a load coefficient pattern for codes in Rome Feb. 1969, practically adopted for European constructions, giving in JCSS Lisbon Feb. 1974 suggestion of union for concrete-steel-al.. That model uses model for loads like Gumbel type I, for 50 years for one type of load, reduced to 1 year to be added to other independent loads, the sum set in Gumbel theories to 50 years return period, there are parallel models. A complete reliability system was produced, including non linear effects as from buckling, phenomena considered somehow in actual Construction Eurocodes produced from Model Codes. The system was considered by author in CEB in presence of Hydraulic effects from rivers, floods, sea, in reference with actual practice. When redacting a Road Drainage Norm in MOPU Spain an optimization model was realized by authors giving a way to determine the figure of Return Period, 10 to 50 years, for the cases of hydraulic flows to be considered in road drainage. Satisfactory examples were a stream in SE of Spain with Gumbel Type I model and a paper of Ven Te Chow with Mississippi in Keokuk using Gumbel type II, and the model can be modernized with more varied extreme laws. In fact in the MOPU drainage norm the redacting commission acted also as expert to set a table of return periods for elements of road drainage, in fact as a multi-criteria complex decision system. These precedent ideas were used e.g. in wide Codes, indicated in symposia or meetings, but not published in journals in English, and a condensate of contributions of authors is presented. The authors are somehow involved in optimization for hydraulic and agro planning, and give modest hints of intended applications in presence of agro and environment planning as a selection of the criteria and utility functions involved in bayesian, multi-criteria or mixed decision systems. Modest consideration is made of changing in climate, and on the production and commercial systems, and on others as social and financial.

Discrete Multi-Criteria Methods for lands use and conservation planning on La Colacha in Arroyos Menores (Río Cuarto, Province of Córdoba, Argentina)

The study area is La Colacha sub-basins from Arroyos Menores basins, natural areas at West and South of Río Cuarto in Province of Córdoba of Argentina, fertile with loess soils and monsoon temperate climate, but with soil erosions including regressive gullies that degrade them progressively. Cultivated gently since some hundred sixty years, coordinated action planning became necessary to conserve lands while keeping good agro-production. The authors had improved data on soils and on hydrology for the study area, evaluated systems of soil uses and actions to be recommended and applied Decision Support Systems (DSS) tools for that, and were conducted to use discrete multi-criteria models (MCDM) for the more global views about soil conservation and hydraulic management actions and about main types of use of soils. For that they used weighted PROMETHEE, ELECTRE, and AHP methods with a system of criteria grouped as environmental, economic and social, and criteria from their data on effects of criteria. The alternatives resulting offer indication for planning depending somehow on sub basins and on selections of weights, but actions for conservation of soils and water management measures are recommended to conserve the basins conditions, actually sensibly degrading, mainly keeping actual uses of the lands.

Dominance Measuring Method Performance under Incomplete Information about Weights.

In multi-attribute utility theory, it is often not easy to elicit precise values for the scaling weights representing the relative importance of criteria. A very widespread approach is to gather incomplete information. A recent approach for dealing with such situations is to use information about each alternative?s intensity of dominance, known as dominance measuring methods. Different dominancemeasuring methods have been proposed, and simulation studies have been carried out to compare these methods with each other and with other approaches but only when ordinal information about weights is available. In this paper, we useMonte Carlo simulation techniques to analyse the performance of and adapt such methods to deal with weight intervals, weights fitting independent normal probability distributions orweights represented by fuzzy numbers.Moreover, dominance measuringmethod performance is also compared with a widely used methodology dealing with incomplete information on weights, the stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA). SMAA is based on exploring the weight space to describe the evaluations that would make each alternative the preferred one.

Dominance intensity measure within fuzzy weight oriented MAUT: an application

We introduce a dominance intensity measuring method to derive a ranking of alternatives to deal with incomplete information in multi-criteria decision-making problems on the basis of multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT) and fuzzy sets theory. We consider the situation where there is imprecision concerning decision-makers’ preferences, and imprecise weights are represented by trapezoidal fuzzy weights.The proposed method is based on the dominance values between pairs of alternatives. These values can be computed by linear programming, as an additive multi-attribute utility model is used to rate the alternatives. Dominance values are then transformed into dominance intensity measures, used to rank the alternatives under consideration. Distances between fuzzy numbers based on the generalization of the left and right fuzzy numbers are utilized to account for fuzzy weights. An example concerning the selection of intervention strategies to restore an aquatic ecosystem contaminated by radionuclides illustrates the approach. Monte Carlo simulation techniques have been used to show that the proposed method performs well for different imprecision levels in terms of a hit ratio and a rank-order correlation measure.

Is building renovation truly sustainable? The need for applying a multi-criteria assessment through life cycle approach

The aim of the present research is to characterise the international scene in the field of building refurbishment, by thoroughly reviewing the literature relating to building renovation and systematising the results according to the different aspects considered by the authors. Even though there is certain consensus with respect to the criteria for the selection of energy efficiency measures, the assessment criteria differ broadly and widely. The present work highlights the lack of consensus on the assessment criteria and the need of harmonization. A holistic view is required in order to identify the most sustainable strategies in each particular case, considering social, environmental and economic impacts from a life cycle perspective.

Sustainability assessment of energy saving measures: A multi-criteria approach for residential buildings retrofitting—A case study of the Spanish housing stock

The building sector is well known to be one of the key energy consumers worldwide. The renovation of existing buildings provides excellent opportunities for an effective reduction of energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions but it is essential to identify the optimal strategies. In this paper a multi-criteria methodology is proposed for the comparative analysis of retrofitting solutions. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and Life Cycle Cost (LCC) are combined by expressing environmental impacts in monetary values. A Pareto optimization is used to select the preferred strategies. The methodology is exemplified by a case study: the renovation of a representative housing block from the 1960s located in Madrid. Eight scenarios have been proposed, from the Business as Usual scenario (BAU), through Spanish Building Regulation requirements (for new buildings) up to the Passive House standard. Results show how current renovation strategies that are being applied in Madrid are far from being optimal solutions. The required additional investment, which is needed to obtain an overall performance improvement of the envelope compared with the common practice to date, is relatively low (8%) considering the obtained life cycle environmental and financial savings (43% and 45%, respectively).

Validación de sistemas constructivos de los cerramientos de la edificación mediante la aplicación de los métodos de decisión multicriterio : aplicación al catálogo de elementos constructivos del Código Técnico de la Edificación

Como punto de partida para el desarrollo de la Tesis, se mantiene la hipótesis de que es posible establecer métodos de evaluación global sobre el grado de utilidad de los sistemas constructivos correspondientes a los cerramientos de la edificación. Tales métodos habrían de posibilitar, de entre una serie finita de sistemas alternativos, cuáles de ellos son los objetivamente más adecuados para su selección en un entorno de decisión concreto, y habrían de permitir fundamentar la justificación objetiva de tal decisión. Paralelamente a esta hipótesis de carácter general, se planteó desde el inicio la necesidad de comprobación de una hipótesis de partida particular según la cual los sistemas constructivos basados en la utilización de componentes prefabricados, o procesos de puesta en obra con un alto grado de industrialización arrojarían valores de utilidad mayores que los sistemas tradicionales basados en la albañilería. Para la verificación de estas dos hipótesis de partida se ha procedido inicialmente a la selección de un conjunto coherente de doce sistemas de cerramientos de la edificación que pudiese servir como testigo de su diversidad potencial, para proceder a su valoración comparativa. El método de valoración propuesto ha entrado a considerar una serie de factores de diversa índole que no son reducibles a un único parámetro o magnitud que permitiese una valoración de tipo lineal sobre su idoneidad relativa, ni que permitiese establecer un grado de prelación entre los distintos sistemas constructivos alternativos de manera absoluta. Para resolver este tour de force o desafío metodológico se ha acudido a la aplicación de metodologías de valoración que nos permitiesen establecer de forma racional dicha comparativa. Nos referimos a una serie de metodologías provenientes en primera instancia de las ciencias exactas, que reciben la denominación de métodos de ayuda a la decisión multicriterio, y en concreto el denominado método ELECTRE. Inicialmente, se ha planteado la aplicación del método de análisis sobre doce sistemas constructivos seleccionados de tal forma que representasen de forma adecuada las tres categorías establecidas para caracterizar la totalidad de sistemas constructivos posibles; por peso, grado de prefabricación y grado de ventilación. Si bien la combinación de las tres categorías básicas anteriormente señaladas produce un total de 18 subcategorías conceptuales, tomamos finalmente doce subcategorías dado que consideramos que es un número operativo suficiente por extenso para el análisis propuesto y elimina tipos no relevantes. Aplicado el método propuesto, a estos doce sistemas constructivos “testigo”, se constata el mayor grado de utilidad de los sistemas prefabricados, pesados y no ventilados. Al hilo del análisis realizado en la Parte II de la Tesis sobre los doce sistemas constructivos “testigo”, se ha realizado un volcado de los sistemas constructivos incluidos en el Catalogo de Elementos Constructivos del CTE (versión 2010) sobre las dieciocho subcategorías definidas en dicha Parte II para caracterizar los sistemas constructivos “testigo”. Posteriormente, se ha procedido a una parametrización de la totalidad de sistemas constructivos para cerramientos de fachadas incluidos en este Catálogo. La parametrización sistemática realizada ha permitido establecer, mediante el cálculo del valor medio que adoptan los parámetros de los sistemas pertenecientes a una misma familia de las establecidas por el Catálogo, una caracterización comparativa del grado de utilidad de dichas familias, tanto en lo relativo a cada uno de los parámetros como en una valoración global de sus valores, de carácter indicativo. Una vez realizada una parametrización completa de la totalidad de sistemas constructivos incluidos en el Catálogo, se ha realizado una simulación de aplicación de la metodología de validación desarrollada en la Parte II de la presente Tesis, con el objeto de comprobar su adecuación al caso. En conclusión, el desarrollo de una herramienta de apoyo a la decisión multicriterio aplicada al Catálogo de Elementos constructivos del CTE se ha demostrado técnicamente viable y arroja resultados significativos. Se han diseñado dos sistemas constructivos mediante la aplicación de la herramienta desarrollada, uno de fachada no ventilada y otro de fachada ventilada. Comparados estos dos sistemas constructivos mejorados con otros sistemas constructivos analizados Se comprueba el alto grado de utilidad objetiva de los dos sistemas diseñados en relación con el resto. La realización de este ejercicio de diseño de un sistema constructivo específico, que responde a los requerimientos de un decisor concreto viene a demostrar, así pues, la utilidad del algoritmo propuesto en su aplicación a los procesos de diseño de los sistemas constructivos. La tesis incorpora dos innovaciones metodológicas y tres innovaciones instrumentales. ABSTRACT The starting point for the thesis is the hypothesis that it is possible to devise suitability degree evaluation methods of building enclosure systems. Such methods should allow optimizing appraisal, given a specific domain of decision, among a finite number of alternative systems, and provide objective justification of such decision. Along with the above mentioned general assumption, a second hypothesis whereby constructive systems based on the use of prefabricated components, or high industrialization degree work processes, would throw efficiency values higher than traditional masonry systems needed to be tested. In order to validate these two hypothesis a coherent set of twelve enclosure systems that could serve as a reference sample of their potential diversity was selected and a comparative evaluation was carried out. The valuation method proposed has considered several different factors that are neither reducible to a single parameter or magnitude that would allow a linear evaluation of their relative suitability nor allow to establishing an absolute priority ranking between different alternative constructive systems. In order to resolve this tour de force or methodological challenge, valuation methodologies that enable use establishing rational assessments were used. We are referring to a number of methodologies taken from the exact sciences field, usually known as aid methods for multi-criteria decision, in particular the so-called ELECTRE method. Even though the combination of the mentioned three basic categories result in eighteen conceptual sub categories, we are finally considering just twelve since we deem it adequately extended for the our intended purpose and eliminates non relevant instances. The method of analysis was initially applied to the set of twelve selected constructive systems is a way that they could represent adequately the three previously established categories set out to characterize all possible enclosure systems, namely weight, prefabrication degree and ventilation degree. Once the proposed method is applied to the sample systems, the higher efficiency of the prefabricated, heavy and not ventilated systems was confirmed. In line with the analysis in Part II of the thesis on the twelve chosen enclosure systems, it has done an uploading data of construction systems listed in the Catalogue of constructive elements of the CTE (version 2010) according the eighteen subcategories used in this part II to characterize the construction systems taken as sample. Subsequently, a parameterization of all enclosure facade systems included in this catalog has been undertaken. The systematic parameterization has allowed to set, by means of calculating the average values of the parameters of the systems belonging to the same family of those established by the Catalog, a comparative characterization of the efficiency degree of these families, both in relation to each parameter as to an overall evaluation of its values, in a indicative way. After the parameterization of all enclosure systems included in the Catalog, a simulation of validation methodology application developed in Part II of this Thesis has been made, in order to assess its consistency to the referred case. In conclusion, the development of a multi-criteria decision aid tool, applied to the CTE Catalog of constructive elements, has proved to be technically feasible and yields significant results. Two building systems through the application of the developed tool, a non-ventilated façade and a ventilated façade have been designed. Comparing these two improved construction systems with other building systems analyzed, we were able to assess the high degree of objective efficiency of the two systems designed in relation to the rest. The exercise of designing a specific enclosure system that meets the requirements of a particular decision-maker hence shows the suitability of the proposed algorithm applied to the process of enclosure systems design. This Thesis includes two methodological innovations and three instrumental innovations.

Multicriteria decision analysis applied to cover crop species andcultivars selection

Cover crop selection should be oriented to the achievement of specific agrosystem benefits. The covercrop, catch crop, green manure and fodder uses were identified as possible targets for selection. Theobjective was to apply multi-criteria decision analysis to evaluate different species (Hordeum vulgareL., Secale cereale L., ×Triticosecale Whim, Sinapis alba L., Vicia sativa L.) and cultivars according to theirsuitability to be used as cover crops in each of the uses. A field trial with 20 cultivars of the five specieswas conducted in Central Spain during two seasons (October?April). Measurements of ground cover, cropbiomass, N uptake, N derived from the atmosphere, C/N, dietary fiber content and residue quality werecollected. Aggregation of these variables through utility functions allowed ranking species and cultivarsfor each usage. Grasses were the most suitable for the cover crop, catch crop and fodder uses, while thevetches were the best as green manures. The mustard attained high ranks as cover and catch crop the firstseason, but the second decayed due to low performance in cold winters. Mustard and vetches obtainedworse rankings than grasses as fodder. Hispanic was the most suitable barley cultivar as cover and catchcrop, and Albacete as fodder. The triticale Titania attained the highest rank as cover and catch crop andfodder. Vetches Aitana and BGE014897 showed good aptitudes as green manures and catch crops. Thisanalysis allowed comparison among species and cultivars and might provide relevant information forcover crops selection and management.

Mathematical models for the arrangement and the cleaning of the river basin and surroundings of the river sandy grounds to its passage by the city of Salta (Argentina)

The province of Salta is located the Northwest of Argentina in the border with Bolivia, Chile and Paraguay. Its Capital is the city of Salta that concentrates half of the inhabitants of the province and has grown to 600000 hab., from a small active Spanish town well founded in 1583. The city is crossed by the Arenales River descending from close mountains at North, source of water and end of sewers. But with actual growing it has become a focus of infection and of remarkable unhealthiness. It is necessary to undertake a plan for the recovery of the river, directed to the attainment of the well-being and to improve the life?s quality of the Community. The fundamental idea of the plan is to obtain an ordering of the river basin and an integral management of the channel and its surroundings, including the cleaning out. The improvement of the water?s quality, the healthiness of the surroundings and the improvement of the environment, must go hand by hand with the development of sport activities, of relaxation, tourism, establishment of breeding grounds, kitchen gardens, micro enterprises with clean production and other actions that contribute to their benefit by the society, that being a basic factor for their care and sustainable use. The present pollution is organic, chemical, industrial, domestic, due to the disposition of sweepings and sewer effluents that affects not only the flora and small fauna, destroying the biodiversity, but also to the health of people living in their margins. Within the plan it will be necessary to consider, besides hydric and environmental cleaning and the prevention of floods, the planning of the extraction of aggregates, the infrastructure and consolidation of margins works and the arrangement of all the river basin. It will be necessary to consider the public intervention at state, provincial and local level, and the private intervention. In the model it has been necessary to include the sub-model corresponding to the election of the entity to be the optimal instrument to reach the proposed objectives, giving an answer to the social, environmental and economic requirements. For that the authors have used multi-criteria decision methods to qualify and select alternatives, and for the programming of their implementation. In the model the authors have contemplated the short, average and long term actions. They conform a Paretooptimal alternative which secures the ordering, integral and suitable management of the basin of the Arenales River, focusing on its passage by the city of Salta.

Survey and brain storming studies about machines, constructions, human and environmental risk consideration in the careers of the Universidad Politécnica of Madrid

The Universidad Politécnica of Madrid (UPM) includes schools and faculties that were for engineering degrees, architecture and computer science, that are now in a quick EEES Bolonia Plan metamorphosis getting into degrees, masters and doctorate structures. They are focused towards action in machines, constructions, enterprises, that are subjected to machines, human and environment created risks. These are present in actions such as use loads, wind, snow, waves, flows, earthquakes, forces and effects in machines, vehicles behavior, chemical effects, and other environmental factors including effects of crops, cattle and beasts, forests, and varied essential economic and social disturbances. Emphasis is for authors in this session more about risks of natural origin, such as for hail, winds, snow or waves that are not exactly known a priori, but that are often considered with statistical expected distributions giving extreme values for convenient return periods. These distributions are known from measures in time, statistic of extremes and models about hazard scenarios and about responses of man made constructions or devices. In each engineering field theories were built about hazards scenarios and how to cover for important risks. Engineers must get that the systems they handle, such as vehicles, machines, firms or agro lands or forests, obtain production with enough safety for persons and with decent economic results in spite of risks. For that risks must be considered in planning, in realization and in operation, and safety margins must be taken but at a reasonable cost. That is a small level of risks will often remain, due to limitations in costs or because of due to strange hazards, and maybe they will be covered by insurance in cases such as in transport with cars, ships or aircrafts, in agro for hail, or for fire in houses or in forests. These and other decisions about quality, security for men or about business financial risks are sometimes considered with Decision Theories models, using often tools from Statistics or operational Research. The authors have done and are following field surveys about risk consideration in the careers in UPM, making deep analysis of curricula taking into account the new structures of degrees in the EEES Bolonia Plan, and they have considered the risk structures offered by diverse schools of Decision theories. That gives an aspect of the needs and uses, and recommendations about improving in the teaching about risk, that may include special subjects especially oriented for each career, school or faculty, so as to be recommended to be included into the curricula, including an elaboration and presentation format using a multi-criteria decision model.

Selección de una cartera de acciones bajo criterios de sostenibilidad medioambiental empleando técnicas de decisión multicriterio

La apertura de los mercados internacionales de capital como consecuencia del proceso de globalización ha motivado un aumento significativo de la labor investigadora en el campo de la economía y, concretamente, en la teoría de la inversión. Los trabajos en este área tuvieron como punto de partida el artículo publicado por Harry Markowitz en 1952 en el Journal of Finance bajo el título “Portfolio Selection”. En él se pretende hacer una modelización del proceso inversionista principalmente a través de dos criterios: riesgo y retorno. Markowitz no da indicaciones en cuanto a cómo elegir la composición de una cartera optimizando simultáneamente riesgo y retorno. En su lugar, fija una de las dos variables (según la aversión al riesgo del inversor y su preferencia por las ganancias) y optimiza la otra. Sin embargo, este análisis resulta ser bastante simplista si tenemos en cuenta que los inversores, como cualquier ser humano, son decisores multicriterio: no sólo maximizarán el beneficio para un riesgo dado, sino que intentarán también minimizar el riesgo, diversificar el tipo de acciones que poseen para inmunizarse frente a crisis financieras, emplear nuevos criterios de inversión que incorporen la sostenibilidad medioambiental y el impacto que la actividad productiva tiene en la sociedad, destinar un mayor porcentaje del presupuesto a compañías poco endeudadas, que alcancen un buen rating o unos buenos índices de responsabilidad social corporativa, etc. La inclusión de estas nuevas variables en el modelo tradicional es ahora posible gracias a la teoría de la decisión multicriterio (MCDM: Multiple Criteria Decision Making). Desde los años setenta se viene desarrollando y aplicando este nuevo paradigma en áreas tan dispares como la planificación de redes de telecomunicación, la optimización de listas de espera en hospitales o la planificación logística de las grandes distribuidoras y compañías de mensajería. En el presente trabajo se pretende aplicar el paradigma MCDM a la construcción de una cartera de acciones siguiendo criterios tanto puramente financieros como de sostenibilidad medioambiental y responsabilidad social corporativa. Para ello, en esta primera parte se estudiará la teoría clásica de selección de carteras de Markowitz, explicando los parámetros que permiten caracterizar un instrumento financiero individual (retorno, riesgo, covarianza) y una cartera de instrumentos (diversificación, frontera eficiente). En la segunda parte se analizará en profundidad el concepto de desarrollo sostenible, tan extendido en la actualidad, y su transposición al plano corporativo y de gestión de carteras. Se realizará una revisión histórica del término y su encaje en el esquema de decisión de una compañía privada, así como un estudio de las herramientas para medir el cumplimiento de ciertos principios de sostenibilidad por parte de las compañías y hacer, de esta forma, cuantificables dichos conceptos con vistas a su incorporación al esquema decisional del inversor. Con posterioridad, en la tercera parte se estudiará la programación por metas como técnica de decisión multicriterio para aplicar al problema de la composición de carteras. El potencial de esta metodología radica en que permite hacer resoluble un problema, en principio, sin solución. Y es que, como no se pueden optimizar todos y cada uno de los criterios simultáneamente, la programación por metas minimizará las desviaciones respecto a determinados niveles de aspiración para ofrecer una solución lo más cercana posible a la ideal. Finalmente, se construirá un caso de estudio a partir de datos reales tanto financieros como de sostenibilidad para, posteriormente, resolver el modelo matemático construido empleando LINGO. A través de esta herramienta software se podrá simular el proceso de optimización y obtener una cartera-solución que refleje las preferencias del agente decisor.