Option contracts for allocating water in inter-basin transfers: the case of the Tagus-Segura Basin in Spain

Users in the Mediterranean region face significant water supply risks. Water markets mechanisms can provide flexibility to water systems run in tight situations. The largest water infrastructure in the Iberian Peninsula connects the Segura and Tagus Basins. Stakeholders and politicians in the Tagus Basin have asked that water transfers between the two basins be eventually phased out. The need to increase the statutory minimum environmental flow in the middle Tagus and to meet new urban demands is going to result in a redefinition of the Transfer?s management rules, leading to a reduction in the transferable volumes. To minimise the consequences of such restrictions to irrigators in the Segura Basin who depend on the transferred volumes, we propose the establishment of water option contracts between both basins that represents an institutional innovation with respect to previous inter-basin spot market experiences. Based on the draft of the new Tagus Basin Plan, we propose both a modification of the Transfer?s management rule and an innovative inter-basin option contract. The main goal of the paper is to define this contract and evaluate it with respect to non-market scenarios. We also assess the resulting impact on environmental flows in the Tagus River and water availability for users in the Segura Basin, together with the economic impacts of such contract on both basins. Our results show that the proposed option contract would reduce the impact of a change in the transfer?s management rule, and reduce the supply risks of the recipient area.

Antiguo Poblado de Algarrobito ubicado en el Valle del Elqui Chile, y su Patrón Urbano Bioclimático

La importancia de conocer bien el entorno para un proyecto arquitectónico es que podemos adaptarlo a nuestras necesidades fisiológicas de Confort Térmico. Podemos decir entonces que el edificio juega un papel fundamental como técnica de control de nuestro entorno. El edificio nos debería entregar un entorno controlado para que nos sintamos bien térmicamente, considerando además, que la arquitectura por sí misma puede lograr dicho confort la mayor parte de las veces. De no ser así, los usuarios tienden a colocar elementos mecánicos, para generar frío o calor artificialmente. Es fundamental entonces que nuestros edificios, tengan una correcta interacción con los recursos naturales del lugar para lograr dicho confort térmico. Pero lograr el Confort Térmico en todos los edificios de una ciudad como unidad, no logrará que la ciudad entera sea confortable térmicamente, ya que las complejas interacciones hacen que la problemática se deba enfrentar como algo sistémico. Esto quiere decir, que para que una ciudad o un conjunto logren la Confortabilidad Térmica deseada por sus habitantes debiera haber sido planificada conforme a variables urbanas que interactúen con el medio natural en forma eficiente. Con la observación de ciertos conjuntos habitacionales antiguos en el interior del Valle del Elqui, Chile y de sus relaciones entre variables urbanas y naturales, queda de manifiesto ciertas características que conllevan a pensar que existió una planificación ambiental en éstos que llevaron a lograr un conjunto con características bioclimáticas. Las evidencias de la existencia en primer lugar de un patrón urbanístico en dichos conjuntos habitacionales antiguos, hacen pensar que dicho patrón se trataría de un patrón bioclimático rural planificado, lo que hace que exista un gran interés por el estudio de estos conjuntos. Hasta ahora, en Chile, los pocos estudios de Confort Térmico que existen, están orientados a edificaciones aisladas, al Confort térmico interior de la edificación en el ámbito urbano, y en nada a Patrones Bioclimáticos de Conjuntos Habitacionales en una situación de ruralidad como a la referida en esta investigación. Además, los estudios referidos al clima urbano, difieren a los del clima rural, por lo que se necesitan mayores estudios aún para comprender mejor la problemática. Es por esto, que la mayoría de los casos mencionados en este estudio son contextualizados al ámbito urbano por carecer de otros estudios rurales. Es en este sentido que esta investigación cobra real importancia y pretende establecer la relación existente entre las variables morfológicas rurales y los recursos naturales del lugar y que generan un confort térmico ideal para sus habitantes, al mismo tiempo, se analiza la existencia de un Patrón Bioclimático en un poblado denominado Algarrobito ubicado en la cuenca del Valle del Elqui, Chile. Es en este sentido que el propósito principal de este trabajo es determinar la real existencia de un Patrón Bioclimático que relacione la morfología rural y edificada de los antiguos poblados pertenecientes a la cuenca del Valle de Elqui Chile con el microclima del lugar. La metodología empleada se basa en realizar primeramente el estudio del microclima del lugar a través de las Cartas Bioclimáticas. Para ello se obtuvo información de datos climatológicos de las estaciones meteorológicas ubicadas en la cuenca del Valle de Elqui, principalmente las más cercanas al lugar de estudio. Mediante una revisión exhaustiva de la información arquitectónica, así como de una labor de reconocimiento en terreno realizada en el poblado seleccionado y de la aplicación del Climograma local, se identificaron las diferentes zonas bioclimáticas del poblado antiguo y potenciales áreas de estudio en el conjunto. Esta actividad incluyó un estudio preliminar de la energía solar local, vientos, humedad, temperaturas y su interacción con el conjunto, permitiendo una primera aproximación a la problemática del espacio exterior y las viviendas. Esto permitió en base a las condicionantes del lugar, la arquitectura vernácula y los materiales descubrir un Patrón en el antiguo conjunto que permitía entregar confortabilidad térmica a sus habitantes y darse cuenta también, que el nuevo conjunto emplazado en el sector no seguía ese patrón con las disfuncionalidades que ello llevaba. Con esto quedó demostrado en primer lugar la existencia de un Patrón Bioclimático rural, los beneficios del patrón, la importancia de éste como causante de Confortabilidad Térmica del conjunto, y por ende de mejor eficiencia energética, así como también, que el nuevo conjunto no sigue para nada este Patrón, pero que existe también la posibilidad de rectificación y por supuesto, que los nuevos desarrollos residenciales del Valle del Elqui, puedan planificarse en base al patrón bioclimático descubierto. ABSTRACT Knowing the environment of an architectonic proyect is really important for adjusting it to our physiological needs of Thermal Comfort. So we can say that the building plays a key role as a technique of control of our environment. The building should give us a controlled environment to make us feel good thermally, and it usually can reach pleasurable temperatures by itself. If it isn't like that, people cooled or heated the ambience with mechanical elements. So a correct interaction between the buildings and natural resources is important to reach a thermal comfort. But achieving Thermal Comfort in all the buildings of a city as a unit will not achieve the whole city is thermally comfortable, because the complex interactions cause the problem needs to be solved as something systemic. This means that for a city or a set reach the Thermal Comfortability desired by its inhabitants, it should have been planned according to the urban variables that interact with the natural environment efficiently. Observing some old housing complexes in Elqui Valley, Chile, and the relationships between their natural and urban variables, some features lead to think that the environmental planning in these led to achieve a set with bioclimatic features. First, the evidences about the existence of an urban pattern in those old housing complexes, make thinking that the pattern would be a planned urban pattern, which generates interest in its study. In Chile, there have been few studies about Thermal Comfort, oriented to isolated buildings and indoor thermal comfort, but Bioclimatic Urban Patterns haven't been studied at all. In this sense, this investigation acquires a real importance and pretends to establish the relationship between urban variables and natural resources of the place that generates a good thermal comfort for its habitants. At the same time, the existence of a Bioclimatic Urban Pattern in Algarrobito, located in Elqui Valley basin, Chile, is analized. It is in this sense that the main purpose of this work is to determine the real existence of a Bioclimatic Urban Pattern, that links the urban and constructive form of the old villages of it with its microclimate. The methodology used is based on performing first the study of the microclimate of the place through the Bioclimatic Cards. To do this, weather stations, located in Elqui valley, near the place that was studied, were used to obtain information of climatological data. The different bioclimatic zones to the old town and potential areas of study in the set were identified, through an exhaustive review of the architectural information, a field reconnaissance work performed on the selected town and the application of the Local Climograph. This activity included a preliminary study of the local solar energy, the winds, the moisture, the temperatures, and their interaction with the set, allowing a first aproximation to troubles of outer space and housing. This allowed, based on the conditions of the place, vernacular architecture and materials, discovering an urban pattern in the old set, which allowed to give thermal comfort to its inhabitants and realize that the new set of the place did not follow this pattern, with the dysfunctions that it carried. These points demonstrated, in first place, the existence of a Bioclimatic Urban Pattern, the benefits of it, the importance of it as a cause of Thermal Comfortability, and therefore a better efficiency of energy, also that the new set doesn’t follow this Pattern at all, but that the posibility of rectification exists and, of course, that the new residencial development in Elqui Valley can be planned based on bioclimatic pattern discovered.

Diffuse Soil Co2 Flux To Assess The Reliability Of Co2 Storage In The Mazarrón-Gañuelas Tertiary Basin (Spain)

Geological storage of CO2 is nowadays internationally considered as the most effective method for greenhouse gas emission mitigation, in order to minimize its effects on the global climatology. One of the main options is to store the CO2 in deep saline aquifers at more than 800 m depth, because it achieves its supercritical state. Among the most important aspects concerning the performance assessment of a deep CO2 geological repository is the evaluation of the CO2 leakage rate from the chosen storage geological formation. Therefore, it is absolutely necessary to increase the knowledge on the interaction among CO2, storage and sealing formations, as well as on the flow paths for CO2 and the physico-mechanical resistance of the sealing formation. Furthermore, the quantification of the CO2 leakage rate is essential to evaluate its effects on the environment. One way to achieve this objective is to study of CO2 leakage on natural analogue systems, because they can provide useful information about the natural performance of the CO2, which can be applied to an artificial CO2 geological storage. This work is focused on the retention capacity of the cap-rock by measuring the diffuse soil CO2 flux in a site selected based on: i) the presence of a natural and deep CO2 accumulation; ii) its structural geological characteristics; and iii) the nature of the cap-rocks. This site is located in the so-called Mazarrón-Gañuelas Tertiary Basin, in the Guadalentin Valley, province of Murcia (Spain) Therefore the main objective of this investigation has been to detect the possible leakages of CO2 from a deep saline aquifer to the surface in order to understand the capability of this area as a natural analogue for Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS). The results obtained allow to conclude that the geological sealing formation of the basin seems to be appropriate to avoid CO2 leakages from the storage formation.

Future reference evapotranspiration in Duero Valley (Spain)

The impact of climate change and its relation with evapotranspiration was evaluated in the Duero River Basin (Spain). The study shows the possible future situations 50 years from now from the reference evapotranspiration (ETo). The maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), dew point (Td), wind speed (U) and net radiation (Rn) trends during the 1980-2009 period were obtained and extrapolated with the FAO-56 Penman- Montheith equation to estimate ETo. Changes in stomatal resistance in response to increases in CO2 were also considered. Four scenarios were done, considering the concentration of CO2 and the period analyzed (annual or monthly). The scenarios studied showed the changes in ETo as a consequence of the annual and monthly trends in the variables Tmax, Tmin, Td, U and Rn with current and future CO2 concentrations (372 ppm and 550 ppm). The future ETo showed increases between 118 mm (11%) and 55 mm (5%) with respect to the current situation of the river basin at 1042 mm. The months most affected by climate change are May, June, July, August and September, which also coincide with the maximum water needs of the basin?s crops

Trends in climatic variables and future reference evapotranspiration in Duero Valley (Spain)

The impact of climate change and its relation with evapotranspiration was evaluated in the Duero River Basin (Spain). The study shows possible future situations 50 yr from now from the reference evapotranspiration (ETo). The maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), dew point (Td), wind speed (U) and net radiation (Rn) trends during the 1980–2009 period were obtained and extrapolated with the FAO-56 Penman-Montheith equation to estimate ETo. Changes in stomatal resistance in response to increases in CO2 were also considered. Four scenarios were done, taking the concentration of CO2 and the period analyzed (annual or monthly) into consideration. The scenarios studied showed the changes in ETo as a consequence of the annual and monthly trends in the variables Tmax, Tmin, Td, U and Rn with current and future CO2 concentrations (372 ppm and 550 ppm). The future ETo showed increases between 118 mm (11 %) and 55 mm (5 %) with respect to the current situation of the river basin at 1042 mm. The months most affected by climate change are May, June, July, August and September, which also coincide with the maximum water needs of the basin’s crops

Frequency and Intensity of drought events over Ebro River basin.

Lately, several researchers have pointed out that climate change is expected to increase temperatures and lower rainfall in Mediterranean regions, simultaneously increasing the intensity of extreme rainfall events. These changes could have consequences regarding rainfall regime, erosion, sediment transport and water quality, soil management, and new designs in diversion ditches. Climate change is expected to result in increasingly unpredictable and variable rainfall, in amount and timing, changing seasonal patterns and increasing the frequency of extreme weather events. Consequently, the evolution of frequency and intensity of drought periods is of most important as in agro-ecosystems many processes will be affected by them. Realising the complex and important consequences of an increasing frequency of extreme droughts at the Ebro River basin, our aim is to study the evolution of drought events at this site statistically, with emphasis on the occurrence and intensity of them. For this purpose, fourteen meteorological stations were selected based on the length of the rainfall series and the climatic classification to obtain a representative untreated dataset from the river basin. Daily rainfall series from 1957 to 2002 were obtained from each meteorological station and no-rain period frequency as the consecutive numbers of days were extracted. Based on this data, we study changes in the probability distribution in several sub-periods. Moreover we used the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for identification of drought events in a year scale and then we use this index to fit log-linear models to the contingency tables between the SPI index and the sub-periods, this adjusted is carried out with the help of ANOVA inference.

Water option contracts for reducing water supply risks: an application to the Tagus-Segura Transfer

El agua es un recurso cada vez más escaso y valioso. Por ello, los recursos hídricos disponibles deben asignarse de una forma eficiente entre los diferentes usos. El cambio climático aumentará la frecuencia y severidad de los eventos extremos, y podría incrementar la demanda de agua de los cultivos. El empleo de mecanismos flexibles de asignación de agua puede ser imprescindible para hacer frente a este aumento en la variabilidad del balance hídrico y para asegurar que los riesgos de suministro, y no solo los recursos, son compartidos de manera eficiente entre los usuarios. Los mercados de agua permiten la reasignación de los recursos hídricos, favoreciendo su transferencia desde los usos de menor a los de mayor valor. Diferentes tipos de mercados de agua se han establecido en diferentes partes del mundo, ayudando a los participantes a afrontar los problemas de escasez de agua en esas zonas. En España, los intercambios de agua están permitidos desde 1999, aunque la participación de los usuarios en el mercado ha sido limitada. Hay varios aspectos de los mercados de agua en España que deben mejorarse. Esta tesis, además de proponer una serie de cambios en el marco regulatorio, propone la introducción de contratos de opción de agua como una posible mejora. La principal ventaja de este tipo de contratos es la estabilidad legal e institucional que éstos proporcionan tanto a compradores como vendedores. Para apoyar esta propuesta, se han llevado a cabo diferentes análisis que muestran el potencial de los contratos de opción como herramienta de reducción del riesgo asociado a una oferta de agua inestable. La Cuenca del Segura (Sureste de España), la Cuenca del Tajo y el Acueducto Tajo- Segura han sido seleccionados como casos de estudio. Tres análisis distintos aplicados a dicha región se presentan en esta tesis: a) una evaluación de los contratos de opción como mecanismo para reducir los riesgos de disponibilidad de agua sufridos por los regantes en la Cuenca del Segura; b) un marco teórico para analizar las preferencias de los regantes por diferentes mecanismos de gestión del riesgo de disponibilidad de agua, su disposición a pagar por ellos y los precios aproximados de estos instrumentos (seguro de sequía y contratos de opción de agua); y c) una evaluación del papel de los contratos de opción en las decisiones de aprovisionamiento de agua de una comunidad de regantes ante una oferta de agua incierta. Los resultados muestran el potencial de reducción del riesgo de los contratos de opción para regantes en España, pero pueden ser extrapolados a otros sectores o regiones. Las principales conclusiones de esta tesis son: a) la agricultura será uno de los sectores más afectados por el cambio climático. Si los precios del agua aumentan, la rentabilidad de los cultivos puede caer hasta niveles negativos, lo que podría dar lugar al abandono de cultivos de regadío en algunas zonas de España. Las políticas de cambio climático y de agua deben estar estrechamente coordinadas para asegurar un uso de agua eficiente y la rentabilidad de la agricultura; b) aunque los mercados de agua han ayudado a algunos usuarios a afrontar problemas de disponibilidad del recurso en momentos de escasez, hay varios aspectos que deben mejorarse; c) es necesario desarrollar mercados de agua más flexibles y estables para garantizar una asignación eficiente de los recursos entre los usuarios de agua; d) los resultados muestran los beneficios derivados del establecimiento de un contrato de opción entre usuarios de agua del Tajo y del Segura para reducir el riesgo de disponibilidad de agua en la cuenca receptora; e) la disposición a pagar de los regantes por un contrato de opción de agua o un seguro de sequía hidrológica, que representa el valor que tienen estos mecanismos para aquellos usuarios de agua que se enfrentan a riesgos relacionados con la disponibilidad del recurso, es consistente con los resultados obtenidos en estudios previos y superior al precio de mercado de estos instrumentos, lo que favorece la viabilidad de estos mecanismos de gestión del riesgo ; y f) los contratos de opción podrían ayudar a optimizar las decisiones de aprovisionamiento de agua bajo incertidumbre, proporcionando más estabilidad y flexibilidad que los mercados temporales de agua. ABSTRACT Water is becoming increasingly scarce and valuable. Thus, existing water resources need to be efficiently allocated among users. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and severity of extreme events, and it may also increase irrigated crops' water demand. The implementation of flexible allocation mechanisms could be essential to cope with this increased variability of the water balance and ensure that supply risks, and not only water resources, are also efficiently shared and managed. Water markets allow for the reallocation of water resources from low to high value uses. Different water trading mechanisms have been created in different parts of the world and have helped users to alleviate water scarcity problems in those areas. In Spain, water trading is allowed since 1999, although market activity has been limited. There are several issues in the Spanish water market that should be improved. This thesis, besides proposing several changes in the legislative framework, proposes the introduction of water option contracts as a potential improvement. The main advantage for both buyer and seller derived from an option contract is the institutional and legal stability it provides. To support this proposal, different analyses have been carried out that show the potential of option contracts as a risk reduction tool to manage water supply instability. The Segura Basin (Southeast Spain), the Tagus Basin and the Tagus-Segura inter-basin Transfer have been selected as the case study. Three different analyses applied to this region are presented in this thesis: a) an evaluation of option contracts as a mechanisms to reduce water supply availability risks in the Segura Basin; b) a theoretical framework for analyzing farmer’s preferences for different water supply risk management tools and farmers’ willingness to pay for them, together with the assessment of the prices of these mechanisms (drought insurance and water option contracts); and c) an evaluation of the role of option contracts in water procurement decisions under uncertainty. Results show the risk-reduction potential of option contracts for the agricultural sector in Spain, but these results can be extrapolated to other sectors or regions. The main conclusions of the thesis are: a) agriculture would be one of the most affected sectors by climate change. With higher water tariffs, crop’s profitability can drop to negative levels, which may result in the abandoning of the crop in many areas. Climate change and water policies must be closely coordinated to ensure efficient water use and crops’ profitability; b) although Spanish water markets have alleviated water availability problems for some users during water scarcity periods, there are several issues that should be improved; c) more flexible and stable water market mechanisms are needed to allocate water resources and water supply risks among competing users; d) results show the benefits derived from the establishment of an inter-basin option contract between water users in the Tagus and the Segura basins for reducing water supply availability risks in the recipient area; e) irrigators’ willingness to pay for option contracts or drought insurance, that represent the value that this kind of trading mechanisms has for water users facing water supply reliability problems, are consistent with results obtained in previous works and higher than the prices of this risk management tools, which shows the feasibility of these mechanisms; and f) option contracts would help to optimize water procurement decisions under uncertainty, providing more flexibility and stability than the spot market.

Structure of Alluvial Valleys from 3-D Gravity Inversion: The Low Andarax Valley (Almería, Spain) Test Case

This paper presents a gravimetric study (based on 382 gravimetric stations in an area about 32 km2) of a nearly flat basin: the Low Andarax valley. This alluvial basin, close to its river mouth, is located in the extreme south of the province of Almería and coincides with one of the existing depressions in the Betic Cordillera. The paper presents new methodological work to adapt a published inversion approach (GROWTH method) to the case of an alluvial valley (sedimentary stratification, with density increase downward). The adjusted 3D density model reveals several features in the topography of the discontinuity layers between the calcareous basement (2,700 kg/m3) and two sedimentary layers (2,400 and 2,250 kg/m3). We interpret several low density alignments as corresponding to SE faults striking about N140?145°E. Some detected basement elevations (such as the one, previously known by boreholes, in Viator village) are apparently connected with the fault pattern. The outcomes of this work are: (1) new gravimetric data, (2) new methodological options, and (3) the resulting structural conclusions.

Irrigation efficiency and water-policy implications for river-basin resilience

Rising demand for food, fiber, and biofuels drives expanding irrigation withdrawals from surface water and groundwater. Irrigation efficiency and water savings have become watchwords in response to climate-induced hydrological variability, increasing freshwater demand for other uses including ecosystem water needs, and low economic productivity of irrigation compared to most other uses. We identify three classes of unintended consequences, presented here as paradoxes. Ever-tighter cycling of water has been shown to increase resource use, an example of the efficiency paradox. In the absence of effective policy to constrain irrigated-area expansion using "saved water", efficiency can aggravate scarcity, deteriorate resource quality, and impair river basin resilience through loss of flexibility and redundancy. Water scarcity and salinity effects in the lower reaches of basins (symptomatic of the scale paradox) may partly be offset over the short-term through groundwater pumping or increasing surface water storage capacity. However, declining ecological flows and increasing salinity have important implications for riparian and estuarine ecosystems and for non-irrigation human uses of water including urban supply and energy generation, examples of the sectoral paradox. This paper briefly considers three regional contexts with broadly similar climatic and water-resource conditions – central Chile, southwestern US, and south-central Spain – where irrigation efficiency directly influences basin resilience. The comparison leads to more generic insights on water policy in relation to irrigation efficiency and emerging or overdue needs for environmental protection.