Long-term persistence of Mediterranean pine forests in the Duero Basin (central Spain) during the Holocene: The case of Pinus pinaster Aiton

In the southern Duero Basin of central Spain, there are vast areas of aeolian sand sheets and dune fields. A comprehensive survey of the sand quarries in this area identified a number of palaeosols in sedimentary sequences. The identification and AMS radiocarbon dating of soil charcoal fragments collected in these palaeosols indicate the persistence of Pinus pinaster in this area throughout most of the Holocene. Although potential natural vegetation models have usually considered the Pinus pinaster forests in this inland area of artificial origin, soil charcoal analysis provides firm evidence of a natural origin. Our data fit perfectly with the pattern of Holocene vegetation development for inland areas of Iberia, which are characterised by stability of pine forests throughout the Holocene. Finally, the growing body of palaeobotanical evidence from Iberia (macrofossils and pollen) is contributing to improve our knowledge of P. pinaster ecology, showing that this species has been present in most Iberian regions during the Holocene, where it has inhabited areas characterised by a very diverse set of climatic and soil conditions.

A new approach on the long term dynamics of neo's under Yarkorsky effect

To calculate the force associated with the Yarkovsky effect the temperature distribution on the surface of the asteroid should be determined; it depends on the asteroid orbit, size and shape, spin axis orientation and period, mass, density of surface layers, albedo, thermal conductivity, capacity and IR emissivity of the material. The uncertainty of many of these parameters invites to develop simplified methods to calculate the influence of the Yarkovsky effect on long term dynamics of asteroids. In this paper we present one of this method based in a special perturbation procedure developed in our group.

MOIRA-PLUS use in decision making on the long-term management of contaminated freshwater bodies and catchments

In the mid-long-term after a nuclear accident, the contamination of drinking water sources, fish and other aquatic foodstuffs, irrigation supplies and people?s exposure during recreational activities may create considerable public concern, even though dose assessment may in certain situations indicate lesser importance than for other sources, as clearly experienced in the aftermath of past accidents. In such circumstances there are a number of available countermeasure options, ranging from specific chemical treatment of lakes to bans on fish ingestion or on the use of water for crop irrigation. The potential actions can be broadly grouped into four main categories, chemical, biological, physical and social. In some cases a combination of actions may be the optimal strategy and a decision support system (DSS) like MOIRA-PLUS can be of great help to optimise a decision. A further option is of course not to take any remedial actions, although this may also have significant socio-economic repercussions which should be adequately evaluated. MOIRA-PLUS is designed to allow for a reliable assessment of the long-term evolution of the radiological situation and of feasible alternative rehabilitation strategies, including an objective evaluation of their social, economic and ecological impacts in a rational and comprehensive manner. MOIRA-PLUS also features a decision analysis methodology, making use of multi-attribute analysis, which can take into account the preferences and needs of different types of stakeholders. The main functions and elements of the system are described summarily. Also the conclusions from end-user?s experiences with the system are discussed, including exercises involving the organizations responsible for emergency management and the affected services, as well as different local and regional stakeholders. MOIRAPLUS has proven to be a mature system, user friendly and relatively easy to set up. It can help to better decisionmaking by enabling a realistic evaluation of the complete impacts of possible recovery strategies. Also, the interaction with stakeholders has allowed identifying improvements of the system that have been recently implemented.

Mixed models for short-run forecasting of electricity prices: Application for the Spanish market

Short-run forecasting of electricity prices has become necessary for power generation unit schedule, since it is the basis of every profit maximization strategy. In this article a new and very easy method to compute accurate forecasts for electricity prices using mixed models is proposed. The main idea is to develop an efficient tool for one-step-ahead forecasting in the future, combining several prediction methods for which forecasting performance has been checked and compared for a span of several years. Also as a novelty, the 24 hourly time series has been modelled separately, instead of the complete time series of the prices. This allows one to take advantage of the homogeneity of these 24 time series. The purpose of this paper is to select the model that leads to smaller prediction errors and to obtain the appropriate length of time to use for forecasting. These results have been obtained by means of a computational experiment. A mixed model which combines the advantages of the two new models discussed is proposed. Some numerical results for the Spanish market are shown, but this new methodology can be applied to other electricity markets as well

Long-term dynamics of fast rotating tethers around planetary satellites

We derive a semi-analytic formulation that enables the study of the long-term dynamics of fast-rotating inert tethers around planetary satellites. These equations take into account the coupling between the translational and rotational motion, which has a non-negligible impact on the dynamics, as the orbital motion of the tether center of mass strongly depends on the tether plane of rotation and its spin rate, and vice-versa. We use these governing equations to explore the effects of this coupling on the dynamics, the lifetime of frozen orbits and the precession of the plane of rotation of the tether.

Measuring emotion: the long and short of it

Estudio de la eficiencia en la reducción del número de términos empleados en los léxicos de respuesta emocional del consumidor: aplicación en cerveza

Application of a SPH depth-integrated model to landslide run-out analysis

Hazard and risk assessment of landslides with potentially long run-out is becoming more and more important. Numerical tools exploiting different constitutive models, initial data and numerical solution techniques are important for making the expert’s assessment more objective, even though they cannot substitute for the expert’s understanding of the site-specific conditions and the involved processes. This paper presents a depth-integrated model accounting for pore water pressure dissipation and applications both to real events and problems for which analytical solutions exist. The main ingredients are: (i) The mathematical model, which includes pore pressure dissipation as an additional equation. This makes possible to model flowslide problems with a high mobility at the beginning, the landslide mass coming to rest once pore water pressures dissipate. (ii) The rheological models describing basal friction: Bingham, frictional, Voellmy and cohesive-frictional viscous models. (iii) We have implemented simple erosion laws, providing a comparison between the approaches of Egashira, Hungr and Blanc. (iv) We propose a Lagrangian SPH model to discretize the equations, including pore water pressure information associated to the moving SPH nodes