Forest connectivity restoration through reforestation: an integrated methodology for prioritizing agricultural lands and selecting reforestation species

Forest connectivity restoration is a major goal in natural resource planning. Given the high amount of abandoned cultivated lands, setting efficient methods for the reforestation of agricultural lands offers a good opportunity to face this issue. However, reforestations must be carefully planned, which poses two main challenges. In first place, to determine those agricultural lands that, once reforested, would meet more effectively the planning goals. As a further step, in order to grant the success of the activity, it is fairly advisable to select those tree species that are more adapted to each particular environment. Here we intend to give response to both requirements by proposing a sequential and integrated methodology that has been implemented in two Spanish forest districts, which are formed by several landscape types that were previously defined and characterized. Using the software Conefor Sensinode, a powerful tool for quantifying habitat availability that is based on graph theory concepts, we determined the landscapes where forest planning should have connectivity as a major concern and, afterwards, we detected the agricultural patches that would contribute most to enhance connectivity if they were reforested. The subsequent reforestation species assessment was performed within these priority patches. Using penalized logistic regressions we fitted ecological niche models for the Spanish native tree species. The models were trained with species distribution data from the Spanish Forest Map and used climatic and lithological variables as predictors. Model predictions were used to build ordered lists of suitable species for each priority patch. The lists include dominant and non dominant tree species and allow adding biodiversity goals to the reforestation planning. The result of this combined methodology is a map of agricultural patches that would contribute most to uphold forest connectivity if they were reforested and a list of suitable tree species for each patch ordered by occurrence probability. Therefore the proposed methodology may be useful for suitable and efficient forest planning and landscape designing.

Ball possession effectiveness in men's and women's elite basketball according to situational variables in different game periods

The aim of the present study was to identify the importance of floorball tactical variables to predict ball possession effectiveness, when controlling quality of opposition and game periods. The sample was composed by 1500 ball possessions, corresponding to 14 games randomly selected from the International Championships played during 2008 and 2010 (World Championship, Four nations tournament and classificatory phases for World Championship) by teams from different competition levels (HIGH, INTERMEDIATE and LOW). The effects of the predictor variables on successful ball possessions according to the three game contexts (HIGH vs. HIGH; HIGH vs. LOW; LOW vs. LOW games) were analyzed using Binomial Logistic Regressions. The results showed no interaction with the game period. In HIGH vs. HIGH games, quality of opposition showed an association with ball possession effectiveness with ending zone, offensive system, possession duration, height of shooting and defensive pressures previous to the shot. In HIGH vs. LOW games the important factors were the starting zone, possession duration, defensive pressure previous to the last pass and to the shot, technique of shooting and the number players involved in each ball possession. Finally, in LOW vs. LOW games, the results emphasized the importance of starting and ending zones, the number of passes used and the technique of shooting. In conclusion, elite floorball performance is mainly affected by quality of opposition showing different game patterns in each context that should be considered by coaches when preparing practices and competitions.

Drivers in adopting adaptation strategies to face increased water scarcity in agriculture. A case study in Doñana (Spain) and Makueni (Kenya)

La agricultura es uno de los sectores más afectados por el cambio climático. A pesar de haber demostrado a lo largo de la historia una gran capacidad para adaptarse a nuevas situaciones, hoy en día la agricultura se enfrenta a nuevos retos tales como satisfacer un elevado crecimiento en la demanda de alimentos, desarrollar una agricultura sostenible con el medio ambiente y reducir las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero. El potencial de adaptación debe ser definido en un contexto que incluya el comportamiento humano, ya que éste juega un papel decisivo en la implementación final de las medidas. Por este motivo, y para desarrollar correctamente políticas que busquen influir en el comportamiento de los agricultores para fomentar la adaptación a estas nuevas condiciones, es necesario entender previamente los procesos de toma de decisiones a nivel individual o de explotación, así como los efectos de los factores que determinan las barreras o motivaciones de la implementación de medidas. Esta Tesis doctoral trata de profundizar en el análisis de factores que influyen en la toma de decisiones de los agricultores para adoptar estrategias de adaptación al cambio climático. Este trabajo revisa la literatura actual y desarrolla un marco metodológico a nivel local y regional. Dos casos de estudio a nivel local (Doñana, España y Makueni, Kenia) han sido llevados a cabo con el fin de explorar el comportamiento de los agricultores hacia la adaptación. Estos casos de estudio representan regiones con notables diferencias en climatología, impactos del cambio climático, barreras para la adaptación y niveles de desarrollo e influencia de las instituciones públicas y privadas en la agricultura. Mientras el caso de estudio de Doñana representa un ejemplo de problemas asociados al uso y escasez del agua donde se espera que se agraven en el futuro, el caso de estudio de Makueni ejemplifica una zona fuertemente amenazada por las predicciones de cambio climático, donde adicionalmente la falta de infraestructura y la tecnología juegan un papel crucial para la implementación de la adaptación. El caso de estudio a nivel regional trata de generalizar en África el comportamiento de los agricultores sobre la implementación de medidas. El marco metodológico que se ha seguido en este trabajo abarca una amplia gama de enfoques y métodos para la recolección y análisis de datos. Los métodos utilizados para la toma de datos incluyen la implementación de encuestas, entrevistas, talleres con grupos de interés, grupos focales de discusión, revisión de estudios previos y bases de datos públicas. Los métodos analíticos incluyen métodos estadísticos, análisis multi‐criterio para la toma de decisiones, modelos de optimización de uso del suelo y un índice compuesto calculado a través de indicadores. Los métodos estadísticos se han utilizado con el fin de evaluar la influencia de los factores socio‐económicos y psicológicos sobre la adopción de medidas de adaptación. Dentro de estos métodos se incluyen regresiones logísticas, análisis de componentes principales y modelos de ecuaciones estructurales. Mientras que el análisis multi‐criterio se ha utilizado con el fin de evaluar las opciones de adaptación de acuerdo a las opiniones de las diferentes partes interesadas, el modelo de optimización ha tenido como fin analizar la combinación óptima de medidas de adaptación. El índice compuesto se ha utilizado para evaluar a nivel regional la implementación de medidas de adaptación en África. En general, los resultados del estudio ponen de relieve la gran importancia de considerar diferentes escalas espaciales a la hora de evaluar la implementación de medidas de adaptación al cambio climático. El comportamiento de los agricultores es diferente entre lugares considerados a una escala local relativamente pequeña, por lo que la generalización de los patrones del comportamiento a escalas regionales o globales resulta relativamente compleja. Los resultados obtenidos han permitido identificar factores determinantes tanto socioeconómicos como psicológicos y calcular su efecto sobre la adopción de medidas de adaptación. Además han proporcionado una mejor comprensión del distinto papel que desempeñan los cinco tipos de capital (natural, físico, financiero, social y humano) en la implementación de estrategias de adaptación. Con este trabajo se proporciona información de gran interés en los procesos de desarrollo de políticas destinadas a mejorar el apoyo de la sociedad a tomar medidas contra el cambio climático. Por último, en el análisis a nivel regional se desarrolla un índice compuesto que muestra la probabilidad de adoptar medidas de adaptación en las regiones de África y se analizan las causas que determinan dicha probabilidad de adopción de medidas. ABSTRACT Agriculture is and will continue to be one of the sectors most affected by climate change. Despite having demonstrated throughout history a great ability to adapt, agriculture today faces new challenges such as meeting growing food demands, developing sustainable agriculture and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Adaptation policies planned on global, regional or local scales are ultimately implemented in decision‐making processes at the farm or individual level so adaptation potentials have to be set within the context of individual behaviour and regional institutions. Policy instruments can play a formative role in the adoption of such policies by addressing incentives/disincentives that influence farmer’s behaviour. Hence understanding farm‐level decision‐making processes and the influence of determinants of adoption is crucial when designing policies aimed at fostering adoption. This thesis seeks to analyse the factors that influence decision‐making by farmers in relation to the uptake of adaptation options. This work reviews the current knowledge and develops a methodological framework at local and regional level. Whilst the case studies at the local level are conducted with the purpose of exploring farmer’s behaviour towards adaptation the case study at the regional level attempts to up‐scale and generalise theory on adoption of farmlevel adaptation options. The two case studies at the local level (Doñana, Spain and Makueni, Kenya) encompass areas with different; climates, impacts of climate change, adaptation constraints and limits, levels of development, institutional support for agriculture and influence from public and private institutions. Whilst the Doñana Case Study represents an area plagued with water‐usage issues, set to be aggravated further by climate change, Makueni Case study exemplifies an area decidedly threatened by climate change where a lack of infrastructure and technology plays a crucial role in the uptake of adaptation options. The proposed framework is based on a wide range of approaches for collecting and analysing data. The approaches used for data collection include the implementation of surveys, interviews, stakeholder workshops, focus group discussions, a review of previous case studies, and public databases. The analytical methods include statistical approaches, multi criteria analysis for decision‐making, land use optimisation models, and a composite index based on public databases. Statistical approaches are used to assess the influence of socio‐economic and psychological factors on the adoption or support for adaptation measures. The statistical approaches used are logistic regressions, principal component analysis and structural equation modelling. Whilst a multi criteria analysis approach is used to evaluate adaptation options according to the different perspectives of stakeholders, the optimisation model analyses the optimal combination of adaptation options. The composite index is developed to assess adoption of adaptation measures in Africa. Overall, the results of the study highlight the importance of considering various scales when assessing adoption of adaptation measures to climate change. As farmer’s behaviour varies at a local scale there is elevated complexity when generalising behavioural patterns for farmers at regional or global scales. The results identify and estimate the effect of most relevant socioeconomic and psychological factors that influence adoption of adaptation measures to climate change. They also provide a better understanding of the role of the five types of capital (natural, physical, financial, social, and human) on the uptake of farm‐level adaptation options. These assessments of determinants help to explain adoption of climate change measures and provide helpful information in order to design polices aimed at enhancing societal support for adaptation policies. Finally the analysis at the regional level develops a composite index which suggests the likelihood of the regions in Africa to adopt farm‐level adaptation measures and analyses the main causes of this likelihood of adoption.

Stabilization in a two-species chemotaxis system with logistic source

We study a system of three partial differential equations modelling the spatiotemporal behaviour of two competitive populations of biological species both of which are attracted chemotactically by the same signal substance. For a range of the parameters the system possesses a uniquely determined spatially homogeneous positive equilibrium (u?, v?) globally asymptotically stable within a certain nonempty range of the logistic growth coefficients.

Regularized logistic regression and multi-objective variable selection for classifying MEG data

This paper addresses the question of maximizing classifier accuracy for classifying task-related mental activity from Magnetoencelophalography (MEG) data. We propose the use of different sources of information and introduce an automatic channel selection procedure. To determine an informative set of channels, our approach combines a variety of machine learning algorithms: feature subset selection methods, classifiers based on regularized logistic regression, information fusion, and multiobjective optimization based on probabilistic modeling of the search space. The experimental results show that our proposal is able to improve classification accuracy compared to approaches whose classifiers use only one type of MEG information or for which the set of channels is fixed a priori.

Use of decision trees algorithm for the territorial logistic planning.

Data mining, and in particular decision trees have been used in different fields: engineering, medicine, banking and finance, etc., to analyze a target variable through decision variables. The following article examines the use of the decision trees algorithm as a tool in territorial logistic planning. The decision tree built has estimated population density indexes for territorial units with similar logistics characteristics in a concise and practical way.

Noise-induced attractor annihilation in the delayed feedback logistic map

We study dynamics of the bistable logistic map with delayed feedback, under the influence of white Gaussian noise and periodic modulation applied to the variable. This system may serve as a model to describe population dynamics under finite resources in noisy environment with seasonal fluctuations. While a very small amount of noise has no effect on the global structure of the coexisting attractors in phase space, an intermediate noise totally eliminates one of the attractors. Slow periodic modulation enhances the attractor annihilation.

System failure prediction through rare-events elastic-net logistic regression

Predicting failures in a distributed system based on previous events through logistic regression is a standard approach in literature. This technique is not reliable, though, in two situations: in the prediction of rare events, which do not appear in enough proportion for the algorithm to capture, and in environments where there are too many variables, as logistic regression tends to overfit on this situations; while manually selecting a subset of variables to create the model is error- prone. On this paper, we solve an industrial research case that presented this situation with a combination of elastic net logistic regression, a method that allows us to automatically select useful variables, a process of cross-validation on top of it and the application of a rare events prediction technique to reduce computation time. This process provides two layers of cross- validation that automatically obtain the optimal model complexity and the optimal mode l parameters values, while ensuring even rare events will be correctly predicted with a low amount of training instances. We tested this method against real industrial data, obtaining a total of 60 out of 80 possible models with a 90% average model accuracy.