Análisis cuantitativo y cualitativo de los momentos críticos en baloncesto = Quantitative and qualitative analysis of the critical moments in basketball

El MC en baloncesto es aquel fenómeno relacionado con el juego que presenta unas características particulares determinadas por la idiosincrasia de un equipo y puede afectar a los protagonistas y por ende al devenir del juego. En la presente Tesis se ha estudiado la incidencia del MC en Liga A.C.B. de baloncesto y para su desarrollo en profundidad se ha planteado dos investigaciones una cuantitativa y otra cualitativa cuya metodología se detalla a continuación: La investigación cuantitativa se ha basado en la técnica de estudio del “Performance analysis”, para ello se han estudiado cuatro temporadas de la Liga A.C.B. (del 2007/08 al 2010/11), tal y como refleja en la bibliografía consultada se han tomado como momentos críticos del juego a los últimos cinco minutos de partidos donde la diferencia de puntos fue de seis puntos y todos los Tiempos Extras disputados, de tal manera que se han estudiado 197 momentos críticos. La contextualización del estudio se ha hecho en función de la variables situacionales “game location” (local o visitante), “team quality” (mejores o peores clasificados) y “competition” (fases de LR y Playoff). Para la interpretación de los resultados se han realizado los siguientes análisis descriptivos: 1) Análisis Discriminante, 2) Regresión Lineal Múltiple; y 3) Análisis del Modelo Lineal General Multivariante. La investigación cualitativa se ha basado en la técnica de investigación de la entrevista semiestructurada. Se entrevistaron a 12 entrenadores que militaban en la Liga A.C.B. durante la temporada 2011/12, cuyo objetivo ha sido conocer el punto de vista que tiene el entrenador sobre el concepto del MC y que de esta forma pudiera dar un enfoque más práctico basado en su conocimiento y experiencia acerca de cómo actuar ante el MC en el baloncesto. Los resultados de ambas investigaciones coinciden en señalar la importancia del MC sobre el resultado final del juego. De igual forma, el concepto en sí entraña una gran complejidad por lo que se considera fundamental la visión científica de la observación del juego y la percepción subjetiva que presenta el entrenador ante el fenómeno, para la cual los aspectos psicológicos de sus protagonistas (jugadores y entrenadores) son determinantes. ABSTRACT The Critical Moment (CM) in basketball is a related phenomenon with the game that has particular features determined by the idiosyncrasies of a team and can affect the players and therefore the future of the game. In this Thesis we have studied the impact of CM in the A.C.B. League and from a profound development two investigations have been raised, quantitative and qualitative whose methodology is as follows: The quantitative research is based on the technique of study "Performance analysis", for this we have studied four seasons in the A.C.B. League (2007/08 to 2010/11), and as reflected in the literature the Critical Moments of the games were taken from the last five minutes of games where the point spread was six points and all overtimes disputed, such that 197 critical moments have been studied. The contextualization of the study has been based on the situational variables "game location" (home or away), "team quality" (better or lower classified) and "competition" (LR and Playoff phases). For the interpretation of the results the following descriptive analyzes were performed: 1) Discriminant Analysis, 2) Multiple Linear Regression Analysis; and 3) Analysis of Multivariate General Linear Model. Qualitative research is based on the technique of investigation of a semi-structured interview. 12 coaches who belonged to the A.C.B. League were interviewed in seasons 2011/12, which aimed to determine the point of view that the coach has on the CM concept and thus could give a more practical approach based on their knowledge and experience about how to deal with the CM in basketball. The results of both studies agree on the importance of the CM on the final outcome of the game. Similarly, the concept itself is highly complex so the scientific view of the observation of the game is considered essential as well as the subjective perception the coach presents before the phenomenon, for which the psychological aspects of their characters (players and coaches) are crucial.

Land cover dynamics and climate change implications on water resources in South Pacific Costa Rica

Water is fundamental to human life and the availability of freshwater is often a constraint on human welfare and economic development. Consequently, the potential effects of global changes on hydrology and water resources are considered among the most severe and vital ones. Water scarcity is one of the main problems in the rural communities of Central America, as a result of an important degradation of catchment areas and the over-exploitation of aquifers. The present Thesis is focused on two critical aspects of global changes over water resources: (1) the potential effects of climate change on water quantity and (2) the impacts of land cover and land use changes on the hydrological processes and water cycle. Costa Rica is among the few developing countries that have recently achieved a land use transition with a net increase in forest cover. Osa Region in South Pacific Costa Rica is an appealing study site to assess water supply management plans and to measure the effects of deforestation, forest transitions and climate change projections reported in the region. Rural Community Water Supply systems (ASADAS) in Osa are dealing with an increasing demand of freshwater due to the growing population and the change in the way of life in the rural livelihoods. Land cover mosaics which have resulted from the above mentioned processes are characterized by the abandonment of marginal farmland with the spread over these former grasslands of high return crops and the expansion of secondary forests due to reforestation initiatives. These land use changes have a significant impact on runoff generation in priority water-supply catchments in the humid tropics, as evidenced by the analysis of the Tinoco Experimental Catchment in the Southern Pacific area of Costa Rica. The monitoring system assesses the effects of the different land uses on the runoff responses and on the general water cycle of the basin. Runoff responses at plot scale are analyzed for secondary forests, oil palm plantations, forest plantations and grasslands. The Oil palm plantation plot presented the highest runoff coefficient (mean RC=32.6%), twice that measured under grasslands (mean RC=15.3%) and 20-fold greater than in secondary forest (mean RC=1.7%). A Thornthwaite-type water balance is proposed to assess the impact of land cover and climate change scenarios over water availability for rural communities in Osa Region. Climate change projections were obtained by the downscaling of BCM2, CNCM3 and ECHAM5 models. Precipitation and temperature were averaged and conveyed by the A1B, A2 and B1 IPCC climate scenario for 2030, 2060 and 2080. Precipitation simulations exhibit a positive increase during the dry season for the three scenarios and a decrease during the rainy season, with the highest magnitude (up to 25%) by the end of the 21st century under scenario B1. Monthly mean temperature simulations increase for the three scenarios throughout the year with a maximum increase during the dry season of 5% under A1B and A2 scenarios and 4% under B1 scenario. The Thornthwaite-type Water Balance model indicates important decreases of water surplus for the three climate scenarios during the rainy season, with a maximum decrease on May, which under A1B scenario drop up to 20%, under A2 up to 40% and under B1 scenario drop up to almost 60%. Land cover scenarios were created taking into account current land cover dynamics of the region. Land cover scenario 1 projects a deforestation situation, with forests decreasing up to 15% due to urbanization of the upper catchment areas; land cover scenario 2 projects a forest recovery situation where forested areas increase due to grassland abandonment on areas with more than 30% of slope. Deforestation scenario projects an annual water surplus decrease of 15% while the reforestation scenario projects a water surplus increase of almost 25%. This water balance analysis indicates that climate scenarios are equal contributors as land cover scenarios to future water resource estimations.

Automatic physical activity pattern recognition and meal intake modelling in type 1 diabetes for their inclusion in artificial pancreas systems

La diabetes comprende un conjunto de enfermedades metabólicas que se caracterizan por concentraciones de glucosa en sangre anormalmente altas. En el caso de la diabetes tipo 1 (T1D, por sus siglas en inglés), esta situación es debida a una ausencia total de secreción endógena de insulina, lo que impide a la mayoría de tejidos usar la glucosa. En tales circunstancias, se hace necesario el suministro exógeno de insulina para preservar la vida del paciente; no obstante, siempre con la precaución de evitar caídas agudas de la glucemia por debajo de los niveles recomendados de seguridad. Además de la administración de insulina, las ingestas y la actividad física son factores fundamentales que influyen en la homeostasis de la glucosa. En consecuencia, una gestión apropiada de la T1D debería incorporar estos dos fenómenos fisiológicos, en base a una identificación y un modelado apropiado de los mismos y de sus sorrespondientes efectos en el balance glucosa-insulina. En particular, los sistemas de páncreas artificial –ideados para llevar a cabo un control automático de los niveles de glucemia del paciente– podrían beneficiarse de la integración de esta clase de información. La primera parte de esta tesis doctoral cubre la caracterización del efecto agudo de la actividad física en los perfiles de glucosa. Con este objetivo se ha llevado a cabo una revisión sistemática de la literatura y meta-análisis que determinen las respuestas ante varias modalidades de ejercicio para pacientes con T1D, abordando esta caracterización mediante unas magnitudes que cuantifican las tasas de cambio en la glucemia a lo largo del tiempo. Por otro lado, una identificación fiable de los periodos con actividad física es un requisito imprescindible para poder proveer de esa información a los sistemas de páncreas artificial en condiciones libres y ambulatorias. Por esta razón, la segunda parte de esta tesis está enfocada a la propuesta y evaluación de un sistema automático diseñado para reconocer periodos de actividad física, clasificando su nivel de intensidad (ligera, moderada o vigorosa); así como, en el caso de periodos vigorosos, identificando también la modalidad de ejercicio (aeróbica, mixta o de fuerza). En este sentido, ambos aspectos tienen una influencia específica en el mecanismo metabólico que suministra la energía para llevar a cabo el ejercicio y, por tanto, en las respuestas glucémicas en T1D. En este trabajo se aplican varias combinaciones de técnicas de aprendizaje máquina y reconocimiento de patrones sobre la fusión multimodal de señales de acelerometría y ritmo cardíaco, las cuales describen tanto aspectos mecánicos del movimiento como la respuesta fisiológica del sistema cardiovascular ante el ejercicio. Después del reconocimiento de patrones se incorpora también un módulo de filtrado temporal para sacar partido a la considerable coherencia temporal presente en los datos, una redundancia que se origina en el hecho de que en la práctica, las tendencias en cuanto a actividad física suelen mantenerse estables a lo largo de cierto tiempo, sin fluctuaciones rápidas y repetitivas. El tercer bloque de esta tesis doctoral aborda el tema de las ingestas en el ámbito de la T1D. En concreto, se propone una serie de modelos compartimentales y se evalúan éstos en función de su capacidad para describir matemáticamente el efecto remoto de las concetraciones plasmáticas de insulina exógena sobre las tasas de eleiminación de la glucosa atribuible a la ingesta; un aspecto hasta ahora no incorporado en los principales modelos de paciente para T1D existentes en la literatura. Los datos aquí utilizados se obtuvieron gracias a un experimento realizado por el Institute of Metabolic Science (Universidad de Cambridge, Reino Unido) con 16 pacientes jóvenes. En el experimento, de tipo ‘clamp’ con objetivo variable, se replicaron los perfiles individuales de glucosa, según lo observado durante una visita preliminar tras la ingesta de una cena con o bien alta carga glucémica, o bien baja. Los seis modelos mecanísticos evaluados constaban de: a) submodelos de doble compartimento para las masas de trazadores de glucosa, b) un submodelo de único compartimento para reflejar el efecto remoto de la insulina, c) dos tipos de activación de este mismo efecto remoto (bien lineal, bien con un punto de corte), y d) diversas condiciones iniciales. ABSTRACT Diabetes encompasses a series of metabolic diseases characterized by abnormally high blood glucose concentrations. In the case of type 1 diabetes (T1D), this situation is caused by a total absence of endogenous insulin secretion, which impedes the use of glucose by most tissues. In these circumstances, exogenous insulin supplies are necessary to maintain patient’s life; although caution is always needed to avoid acute decays in glycaemia below safe levels. In addition to insulin administrations, meal intakes and physical activity are fundamental factors influencing glucose homoeostasis. Consequently, a successful management of T1D should incorporate these two physiological phenomena, based on an appropriate identification and modelling of these events and their corresponding effect on the glucose-insulin balance. In particular, artificial pancreas systems –designed to perform an automated control of patient’s glycaemia levels– may benefit from the integration of this type of information. The first part of this PhD thesis covers the characterization of the acute effect of physical activity on glucose profiles. With this aim, a systematic review of literature and metaanalyses are conduced to determine responses to various exercise modalities in patients with T1D, assessed via rates-of-change magnitudes to quantify temporal variations in glycaemia. On the other hand, a reliable identification of physical activity periods is an essential prerequisite to feed artificial pancreas systems with information concerning exercise in ambulatory, free-living conditions. For this reason, the second part of this thesis focuses on the proposal and evaluation of an automatic system devised to recognize physical activity, classifying its intensity level (light, moderate or vigorous) and for vigorous periods, identifying also its exercise modality (aerobic, mixed or resistance); since both aspects have a distinctive influence on the predominant metabolic pathway involved in fuelling exercise, and therefore, in the glycaemic responses in T1D. Various combinations of machine learning and pattern recognition techniques are applied on the fusion of multi-modal signal sources, namely: accelerometry and heart rate measurements, which describe both mechanical aspects of movement and the physiological response of the cardiovascular system to exercise. An additional temporal filtering module is incorporated after recognition in order to exploit the considerable temporal coherence (i.e. redundancy) present in data, which stems from the fact that in practice, physical activity trends are often maintained stable along time, instead of fluctuating rapid and repeatedly. The third block of this PhD thesis addresses meal intakes in the context of T1D. In particular, a number of compartmental models are proposed and compared in terms of their ability to describe mathematically the remote effect of exogenous plasma insulin concentrations on the disposal rates of meal-attributable glucose, an aspect which had not yet been incorporated to the prevailing T1D patient models in literature. Data were acquired in an experiment conduced at the Institute of Metabolic Science (University of Cambridge, UK) on 16 young patients. A variable-target glucose clamp replicated their individual glucose profiles, observed during a preliminary visit after ingesting either a high glycaemic-load or a low glycaemic-load evening meal. The six mechanistic models under evaluation here comprised: a) two-compartmental submodels for glucose tracer masses, b) a single-compartmental submodel for insulin’s remote effect, c) two types of activations for this remote effect (either linear or with a ‘cut-off’ point), and d) diverse forms of initial conditions.

El tiempo como sustancia de la forma : una aproximación al Museo de Arte Romano de Mérida desde los presupuestos del vitalismo

El modelo dominante durante la Era Moderna asume la presencia del hombre como sujeto dentro del gran engranaje mecánico del Cosmos. Asimismo, recoge una idea acerca del ser natural dentro de la tradición ontológica iniciada por el eleatismo presocrático que concibe a éste como lo inmutable y estático frente al cambio y al movimiento, los cuales se constituyen como meras apariencias. Durante el periodo anterior a la aparición de los grandes filósofos griegos se produce una transformación en donde, de la inicial cosmología vinculada a un tiempo primordial, se pasará a una visión del Universo como ente indestructible, atemporal, inmutable, perfecto, geométrico y espacial. Si en Demócrito se admite un universo sometido al azar y a la necesidad, en Platón el Universo sólo atiende a la necesidad. Este modelo ontológico se pone en entredicho cuando el hombre ya no es concebido como pieza de un sistema más amplio, sino como centro radical del pensamiento. La condición radical del hombre es entonces su propia vida, siendo éste el concepto troncal del denominado vitalismo cuyo más influyente representante en España es José Ortega y Gasset. El estatismo del ser –del hombre- pierde sentido; en palabras del propio Ortega, “no es un ser sino un estar siendo” lo que caracteriza a la vida humana. La razón cartesiana es ahora la razón vital y su objeto de estudio no es la naturaleza sino el propio devenir, es decir, el tiempo, la historia. Este planteamiento es fundamental para comprender el edificio que es objeto de este estudio, el Museo de Arte Romano de Mérida (1980-1985) de Rafael Moneo. Por ello el concepto de tiempo es utilizado como marco y estructura de la presente tesis, a sabiendas del notorio y muy significativo papel que este edificio desempeñó en la carrera de su autor y en el panorama nacional e internacional de la arquitectura y de la museología. Este proyecto nos permite acercarnos al pensamiento de su autor a través de un edificio que, aun habiendo sido ampliamente reconocido, no cuenta con un estudio suficientemente exhaustivo que recoja la amplitud y riqueza que encierra. Esta tesis no es un compendio de lo que ya se ha investigado sobre Mérida; es una aproximación global e interpretativa cuyo sentido sólo puede concebirse al vislumbrar la estructura completa de la misma en sintonía con el "lógos" vital, histórico y narrativo que el proyecto encierra. Se revisará la concepción histórica según la cual, la configuración espacial de la forma habría tenido primacía respecto a su configuración temporal, al remitir esta última a una condición espacializada y circunstancial. La componente vicaria de la circunstancia será elevada por Ortega a la categoría de esencial, visualizando así una paradoja cuya reformulación nos lleva a la concepción de un tiempo sustancial. El diccionario de la RAE, en su tercera acepción, define la sustancia como “aquello que permanece en algo que cambia”, lo cual nos remite al pensamiento antiguo. Se mostrará que lo que permanece no necesariamente implica una concepción estática y eleática de la forma, que la arquitectura esencial no es unívocamente la arquitectura atemporal del platonismo y que cabe concebir la "firmitas" desde la atención a la "durée" bergsoniana. Al asociar tradicionalmente la sustancia con el referido estatismo, se margina al tiempo y a la duración a lo no sustancial; por ello, se tratará de aproximar los términos de tiempo y sustancia para definir la forma. Ello conllevará al estudio de las notables patologías derivadas de la asunción de un tiempo cronológico en nuestra contemporaneidad frente a las cuales, las intuiciones contenidas en Mérida, se alinearán con la actual actitud revisionista en el ámbito del pensamiento filosófico y científico. En Mérida, la memoria recogerá los aspectos de la conciencia así como los aspectos vinculados a la experiencia íntima y colectiva como soporte para la consecución de un discurso. La dualidad entre intuición e inteligencia será recogida por Moneo con idea de trascender su incomunicabilidad, mediante una operación que consistirá en la reivindicación de una memoria irreductible, cuya morada estaría incardinada en el propio tiempo de la duración y de la vida y no en la espacialidad coextensiva del presente y de la acción funcional sobre la materia. Moneo asumirá el papel de la memoria como condición central de una forma que se encarnará al concebirse como un teatro. En la respuesta a la contradicción entre el hecho físico y el efecto psíquico de la experiencia humana residirá la pertinencia de un tiempo narrativo. Será entonces el lenguaje el encargado de aportar sentido a la obra mediante el recurso fundado en la dramatización de la experiencia, es decir, a través de una conexión entre la conciencia íntima y el carácter social y colectivo intrínseco en la arquitectura. ABSTRACT TIME AS A SUBSTANCE OF FORM. AN APPROACH TO THE ROMAN ART MUSEUM OF MÉRIDA FROM THE VIEWPOINT OF VITALISM. The dominant model during the Modern Era placed man as a subject inside the great mechanism of the cosmos. It is also based in an idea about natural being within the ontological tradition initiated by the pre-Socratic Eleatism that conceives it as something immutable and static in respect with change and movement, which are considered as mere appearances. Prior to the emergence of the great Greek philosophers occurred a transformation where concepts of cosmology linked to a primordial time, changed to a view of the universe as indestructible, timeless, unchanging, perfect, geometric and spatial. If Democritus accepted a universe subjected to randomness and necessity, Plato thought that the universe only worked by necessity. This ontological model is called into question when man is not conceived as a piece of a broader system, but as a radical center of thinking. The radical condition of man then is his own life. This is the core concept of so-called Vitalism, whose most influential representative in Spain was José Ortega y Gasset. The stillness of being – of man - loses its meaning; in the words of Ortega, “it is not being but being in progress” that characterizes human life. The Cartesian reason is now the vital reason and its subject of study is no longer nature but its own evolution, in other words, time and history. This approach is fundamental to understand the building which is the subject of this study, the Museum of Roman Art in Mérida (1980-1985) by Rafael Moneo. The concept of time is used as a framework and structure of this thesis, demonstrating the notorious and very significant role this building has implied in the career of its author and in the national and international panorama of architecture and museology. This project allow us to approach the thought of its author through a building that, even whilst widely recognized, does not yet have a sufficiently comprehensive study covering its breadth and richness. This thesis is not a compendium of what already has been researched on Merida; it is a global and interpretative approach whose meaning can only be conceived as a study of its complete structure in line with the vital, historical and narrative logos the project implies. We will review the historical idea where spatial configuration of the form would have had primacy with respect to temporary configuration, because the latter refers to a spatial and circumstantial condition. The vicarious nature of the circumstance will be elevated by Ortega to the category of essential, thus showing a paradox which reformulation leads us to the conception of a substantial time. The dictionary of the Spanish Royal Academy, in its third meaning, defines substance as "that which remains in something that changes". This is a reference to ancient thought. It will be shown that what remains does not necessarily imply a static and Eleatic conception of form. It will also be shown that the essential architecture is not uniquely the timeless architecture of Platonism and that it is possible to conceive the "firmitas" parallel to the "durée" of Henri Bergson. As a result of this traditional association between substance and stillness, it marginalizes the time and the duration to the non-substantial; for this reason, we will try to approach terms of time and substance to define the shape. This will involve studying significant pathologies resulting from an assumption of chronological time in our contemporary world against which, the insights contained in Merida, will be aligned with the current revisionist attitude in the fields of philosophical and scientific thought. In Merida, memory includes aspects of consciousness as well as aspects linked to the intimate and collective experience as a foundation for the achievement of discourse. The duality between intuition and intelligence is put forward by Moneo with the idea of transcending its lack of communication, by means of a resource consisting of the vindication of an irreducible memory, whose home would be embodied in the time of duration and life and not in the coextensive spatiality of the present and in the functional action on the matter. Moneo demonstrates the role of memory as a central condition of form as a theatre. In response to the contradiction between the physical fact and the psychological effect of human experience lies the relevance of narrative time. Language then assumes the responsibility of giving meaning to the work through the dramatization of experience, i.e., through a connection between the intimate consciousness and the intrinsic social and collective character of architecture.