Seasonal Dynamic Factor Analysis and Bootstrap Inference: Application to Electricity Market Forecasting

In this work, we propose the Seasonal Dynamic Factor Analysis (SeaDFA), an extension of Nonstationary Dynamic Factor Analysis, through which one can deal with dimensionality reduction in vectors of time series in such a way that both common and specific components are extracted. Furthermore, common factors are able to capture not only regular dynamics (stationary or not) but also seasonal ones, by means of the common factors following a multiplicative seasonal VARIMA(p, d, q) × (P, D, Q)s model. Additionally, a bootstrap procedure that does not need a backward representation of the model is proposed to be able to make inference for all the parameters in the model. A bootstrap scheme developed for forecasting includes uncertainty due to parameter estimation, allowing enhanced coverage of forecasting intervals. A challenging application is provided. The new proposed model and a bootstrap scheme are applied to an innovative subject in electricity markets: the computation of long-term point forecasts and prediction intervals of electricity prices. Several appendices with technical details, an illustrative example, and an additional table are available online as Supplementary Materials.

Advanced methodologies for the dendrogeomorphic analysis of past floods and related risks

This communication presents an overview of their first results and innovate methodologies, focused in their possibilities and limitations for the reconstruction of recent floods and paleofloods over the World.

A ferrous oxalate mediated photo-Fenton system: Toward an increased biodegradability of indigo dyed wastewaters

This study assessed the applicability of a ferrous oxalate mediated photo-Fenton pretreatment for indigo-dyed wastewaters as to produce a biodegradable enough effluent, likely of being derived to conventional biological processes. The photochemical treatment was performed with ferrous oxalate and hydrogen peroxide in a Compound Parabolic Concentrator (CPC) under batch operation conditions. The reaction was studied at natural pH conditions (5–6) with indigo concentrations in the range of 6.67–33.33 mg L−1, using a fixed oxalate-to-iron mass ratio (C2O42−/Fe2+ = 35) and assessing the system's biodegradability at low (257 mg L−1) and high (1280 mg L−1) H2O2 concentrations. In order to seek the optimal conditions for the treatment of indigo dyed wastewaters, an experimental design consisting in a statistical surface response approach was carried out. This analysis revealed that the best removal efficiencies for Total Organic Carbon (TOC) were obtained for low peroxide doses. In general it was observed that after 20 kJ L−1, almost every treated effluent increased its biodegradability from a BOD5/COD value of 0.4. This increase in the biodegradability was confirmed by the presence of short chain carboxylic acids as intermediate products and by the mineralization of organic nitrogen into nitrate. Finally, an overall decrease in the LC50 for Artemia salina indicated a successful detoxification of the effluent.

Modelling Saharan dust transport into the Mediterranean basin with CMAQ

The need for a better quantification of the influence of Saharan dust transport processes on the air quality modelling in the Mediterranean basin led to the formulation of a dust emission module (DEM) integrated into the Air Quality Risk Assessment System for the Iberian Peninsula (SERCA). This paper is focused on the formulation of DEM based on the GOCART aerosol model, along with its integration and execution into the air quality model. It also addresses the testing of the module and its evaluation by contrasting results against satellite products such as MODIS and CALIPSO and ground-level observations of aerosol optical thickness (AOT) and concentration levels of PM10 for different periods in July 2007. DEM was found capable of reproducing the spatial (horizontal and vertical) and temporal profiles of Saharan dust outbreaks into the Mediterranean basin and the Atlantic coast of Africa. Moreover, it was observed that its combination with CMAQ increased the correlation degree between observed and modelled PM10 concentrations at the selected monitoring locations. DEM also enhanced CMAQ capabilities to reproduce observed AOT, although significant underestimations remain. The implementation of CMAQ + DEM succeeded in capturing Saharan dust transport into the Iberian Peninsula, with contributions up to 25 and 14 μg m−3 in 1 h and 24 h average PM10 respectively. The general improvement of total PM10 predictions in Spain are however moderate. The analysis of model performance for the main PM components points out that remaining PM10 underestimation is due to dust local sources missing in the inventories and misrepresentation of organic aerosol processes, which constitutes the main areas for future improvement of CMAQ capabilities to simulate particulate matter within SERCA.

OMA -AMO - Casa de la música de Oporto

La investigación de un “objeto arquitectónico” enlaza con los principios teóricos desde los que en ARKRIT-LAB se entiende la crítica la arquitectura: la obra antes que el autor y su descripción antes que su interpretación. Consecuentemente, se propuso estudiar un edificio relevante y considerado de gran impacto teórico y mediático, entrando primero de manera precisa en su respuesta al medio, al material, a la medida, a la morfología y a la misión -metodo M3- y proponiendo después, entre los investigadores del laboratorio diversas actividades: re exionar de manera abierta sobre las condiciones de su “arquitectura”, experimentar el edi cio, rastrear sus antecedentes e investigar en la materia concreta y en las formas utilizadas; actividades que buscaban nuevas realidades que pudieran mostrar otras visiones. En el laboratorio consideramos que como arquitectos y como críticos, no resulta super uo aprender a ver más, a oír más, a sentir más y a pensar más4. El edificio elegido para el curso 2010-2011 fue la “Casa da Musica” de Oporto, proyecto de OMA-Rem Koolhaas, siendo el texto que se convirtió en referencia para la primera aproximación el titulado “Otra Modernidad” de Rafael Moneo. Texto en el que se describe el proyecto como encarnación de los nuevos atributos de la arquitectura contemporánea5. “Otra Modernidad” entendida desde la Modernidad, como frontera considerada por Antonio Miranda como referente de progreso y faro de toda acción arquitectónica. Modernidad como anhelo de una sociedad nueva más justa.

Implementation of a module for risk of ozone impacts assessment to vegetation in the integrated assessment modelling system for the Iberian peninsula. Evaluation for wheat and holm oak

A module to estimate risks of ozone damage to vegetation has been implemented in the Integrated Assessment Modelling system for the Iberian Peninsula. It was applied to compute three different indexes for wheat and Holm oak; daylight AOT40 (cumulative ozone concentration over 40 ppb), cumulative ozone exposure index according to the Directive 2008/50/EC (AOT40-D) and PODY (Phytotoxic Ozone Dose over a given threshold of Y nmol m−2 s−1). The use of these indexes led to remarkable differences in spatial patterns of relative ozone risks on vegetation. Ozone critical levels were exceeded in most of the modelling domain and soil moisture content was found to have a significant impact on the results. According to the outputs of the model, daylight AOT40 constitutes a more conservative index than the AOT40-D. Additionally, flux-based estimations indicate high risk areas in Portugal for both wheat and Holm oak that are not identified by AOT-based methods.

Integración de estrategias de transporte urbanas: evidencia de sinergias

En el presente trabajo se estudian las potenciales sinergias que podrían producirse al combinar diferentes medidas en un plan de movilidad sostenible. Esto permite maximizar la utilidad de las actuaciones programadas y optimizar el diseño de las estrategias para alcanzar un objetivo concreto de movilidad. Para ello se propone un método de evaluación que integra un modelo dinámico de usos del suelo y transporte que simula escenarios a largo plazo, un mecanismo de evaluación de escenarios que mide la utilidad de las actuaciones a implementar y un módulo de optimización que permite diseñar las actuaciones de tal forma que maximice una función de utilidad previamente definida.

Study of a new 4×3 beam forming network for triangular arrays of three radiating elements

An innovative dissipative multi-beam network for triangular arrays of three radiating elements is proposed. This novel network provides three orthogonal beams in θ0 elevation angle and a fourth one in the broadside steering direction. The network is composed of 90º hybrid couplers and fixed phase shifters. In this paper, a relation between network components, radiating element distance and beam steering directions will be shown. Application of the proposed dissipative network to the triangular cells of three radiating elements that integrate the intelligent antenna GEODA will be exhibited. This system works at 1.7 GHz, it has a 60º single radiating element beamwidth and a distance between array elements of 0.57λ. Both beam patterns, theoretical and simulated, obtained with the network will be depicted. Moreover, the whole system, dissipative network built with GEODA cell array, has been measured in the anechoic chamber of the Radiation Group of Technical University of Madrid, demonstrating expected performance

Energía renovable a partir de los lodos de depuradoras urbanas

El lodo de depuradora es el residuo líquido o semilíquido procedente de las Estaciones Depuradoras de Aguas Residuales (EDARs) del que puede obtenerse una energía renovable empleando la tecnología de la gasificación. Esta tecnología consiste en la oxidación parcial del sustrato carbonoso del lodo a altas temperaturas bajo condiciones subestequiométricas de aire, oxígeno u otros agentes gasificantes. Los productos obtenidos mediante gasificación son: un gas de síntesis (SYNGAS, con composición variable de H2, CO) un residuo carbonizado (char) y una fracción líquida de compuestos orgánicos de distinto peso molecular denominados alquitranes. El gas de síntesis tiene aplicaciones como son la generación de energía eléctrica/térmica o la síntesis de compuestos químicos. Sin embargo, la presencia de alquitranes imposibilita su uso en buena parte de las aplicaciones. El trabajo realizado que aquí se presenta estudia la posibilidad de tratar los lodos de depuradora mediante gasificación. Para ello, se han realizado las siguientes tareas: - Caracterización del lodo incluyendo la determinación de su humedad, materia orgánica, análisis elemental (C, N, H, S) y contenido de metales pesados (Cd, Cu, Ni, Pb, Zn, Hg y Cr). - Estudios de termogravimetría (TGA) del lodo para conocer su comportamiento térmico y la temperatura a la que se producen las principales reacciones en la gasificación. - Gasificación en un equipo de lecho fluido burbujeante y alimentación en continuo a escala de laboratorio. Con dicho gasificador se ha experimentado a distintas temperaturas y cargas para conocer las condiciones de proceso más favorables para aumentar la producción y el poder calorífico del SYNGAS obteniendo, a la vez, una baja producción en alquitranes. Para ello se ha analizado la composición de los gases obtenidos, la producción de alquitranes, la conversión del carbón y la eficiencia en la gasificación. Los alquitranes fueron analizados mediante cromatografía de gases y espectrometría de masas, para conocer y cuantificar sus diferentes componentes. - Determinación de la capacidad adsorbente de carbones activos producidos mediante gasificación, utilizando azul de metileno como adsorbato. Las conclusiones obtenidas permiten considerar la viabilidad técnica de la gasificación de lodos como fuente de energía renovable.

Sewage sludge gasification. Dolomite performance under different operating conditions

Gasification is a technology that can replace traditional management alternatives used up to date to deal with this waste (landfilling, composting and incineration) and which fulfils the social, environmental and legislative requirements. The main products of sewage sludge gasification are permanent gases (useful to generate energy or to be used as raw material in chemical synthesis processes), liquids (tars) and char. One of the main problems to be solved in gasification is tar production. Tars are organic impurities which can condense at relatively high temperatures making impossible to use the produced gases for most applications. This work deals with the effect of some primary tar removal processes (performed inside the gasifier) on sewage sludge gasification products. For this purpose, analysis of the gas composition, tar production, cold gas efficiency and carbon conversion were carried out. The tests were performed with air in a laboratory scale plant consisting mainly of a bubbling bed gasifier. No catalyzed and catalyzed (10% wt of dolomite in the bed and in the feeding) tests were carried out at different temperatures (750ºC, 800ºC and 850ºC) in order to know the effect of these parameters in the gasification products. As far as tars were concerned, qualitative and quantitative tar composition was determined. In all tests the Equivalence Ratio (ER) was kept at 0.3. Temperature is one of the most influential variables in sewage sludge gasification. Higher temperatures favoured hydrogen and CO production while CO2 content decreased, which might be partially explained by the effect of the cracking, Boudouard and CO2 reforming reactions. At 850ºC, cold gas efficiency and carbon conversion reached 49% and 76%, respectively. The presence of dolomite as catalyst increased the production of H2 reaching contents of 15.5% by volume at 850 °C. Similar behaviour was found for CO whereas CO2 and CnHm (light hydrocarbons) production decreased. In the presence of dolomite, a tar reduction of up to 51% was reached in comparison with no catalyzed tests, as well as improvements on cold gas efficiency and carbon conversion. Several assays were developed in order to test catalyst performance under more rough gasification conditions. For this purpose, the throughput value (TR), defined as kg sludge “as received” fed to the gasifier per hour and per m2 of cross sectional area of the gasifier, was modified. Specifically, the TR values used were 110 (reference value), 215 and 322 kg/h·m2. When TR increased, the H2, CO and CH4 production decreased while the CO2 and the CnHm production increased. Tar production increased drastically with TR during no catalysed tests what is related to the lower residence time of the gas inside the reactor. Nevertheless, even at TR=322 kg/h·m2, tar production decreased by nearly 50% with in-bed use of dolomite in comparison with no catalyzed assays under the same operating conditions. Regarding relative tar composition, there was an increase in benzene and naphthalene content when temperature increased while the content of the rest of compounds decreased. The dolomite seemed to be effective all over the range of molecular weight studied showing tar removal efficiencies between 35-55% in most cases. High values of the TR caused a significant increase in tar production but a slight effect on tar composition.

Evaluation and improvement of empirical models of global solar irradiation: Case study northern Spain

This paper presents a new methodology to build parametric models to estimate global solar irradiation adjusted to specific on-site characteristics based on the evaluation of variable im- portance. Thus, those variables higly correlated to solar irradiation on a site are implemented in the model and therefore, different models might be proposed under different climates. This methodology is applied in a study case in La Rioja region (northern Spain). A new model is proposed and evaluated on stability and accuracy against a review of twenty-two already exist- ing parametric models based on temperatures and rainfall in seventeen meteorological stations in La Rioja. The methodology of model evaluation is based on bootstrapping, which leads to achieve a high level of confidence in model calibration and validation from short time series (in this case five years, from 2007 to 2011). The model proposed improves the estimates of the other twenty-two models with average mean absolute error (MAE) of 2.195 MJ/m2 day and average confidence interval width (95% C.I., n=100) of 0.261 MJ/m2 day. 41.65% of the daily residuals in the case of SIAR and 20.12% in that of SOS Rioja fall within the uncertainty tolerance of the pyranometers of the two networks (10% and 5%, respectively). Relative differences between measured and estimated irradiation on an annual cumulative basis are below 4.82%. Thus, the proposed model might be useful to estimate annual sums of global solar irradiation, reaching insignificant differences between measurements from pyranometers.

Emission inventories and modeling requirements for the development of air quality plans. Application to Madrid (Spain)

Modeling is an essential tool for the development of atmospheric emission abatement measures and air quality plans. Most often these plans are related to urban environments with high emission density and population exposure. However, air quality modeling in urban areas is a rather challenging task. As environmental standards become more stringent (e.g. European Directive 2008/50/EC), more reliable and sophisticated modeling tools are needed to simulate measures and plans that may effectively tackle air quality exceedances, common in large urban areas across Europe, particularly for NO2. This also implies that emission inventories must satisfy a number of conditions such as consistency across the spatial scales involved in the analysis, consistency with the emission inventories used for regulatory purposes and versatility to match the requirements of different air quality and emission projection models. This study reports the modeling activities carried out in Madrid (Spain) highlighting the atmospheric emission inventory development and preparation as an illustrative example of the combination of models and data needed to develop a consistent air quality plan at urban level. These included a series of source apportionment studies to define contributions from the international, national, regional and local sources in order to understand to what extent local authorities can enforce meaningful abatement measures. Moreover, source apportionment studies were conducted in order to define contributions from different sectors and to understand the maximum feasible air quality improvement that can be achieved by reducing emissions from those sectors, thus targeting emission reduction policies to the most relevant activities. Finally, an emission scenario reflecting the effect of such policies was developed and the associated air quality was modeled.

Relativistic screened hydrogenic radial integrals

The computation of dipole matrix elements plays an important role in the study of absorption or emission of radiation by atoms in several fields such as astrophysics or inertial confinement fusion. In this work we obtain closed formulas for the dipole matrix elements of multielectron ions suitable for using in the framework of a Relativistic Screened Hydrogenic Model.

Carbon dioxide adsorption in chemically activated carbon from sewage sludge

In this work, sewage sludge was used as precursor in the production of activated carbon by means of chemical activation with KOH and NaOH. The sludge-based activated carbons were investigated for their gaseous adsorption characteristics using CO2 as adsorbate. Although both chemicals were effective in the development of the adsorption capacity, the best results were obtained with solid NaOH (SBAT16). Adsorption results were modeled according to the Langmuir and Freundlich models, with resulting CO2 adsorption capacities about 56 mg/g. The SBAT16 was characterized for its surface and pore characteristics using continuous volumetric nitrogen gas adsorption and mercury porosimetry. The results informed about the mesoporous character of the SBAT16 (average pore diameter of 56.5 Å). The Brunauer-Emmett-Teller (BET) surface area of the SBAT16 was low (179 m2/g) in comparison with a commercial activated carbon (Airpel 10; 1020 m2/g) and was mainly composed of mesopores and macropores. On the other hand, the SBAT16 adsorption capacity was higher than that of Airpel 10, which can be explained by the formation of basic surface sites in the SBAT16 where CO2 experienced chemisorption. According to these results, it can be concluded that the use of sewage-sludge-based activated carbons is a promising option for the capture of CO2. Implications: Adsorption methods are one of the current ways to reduce CO2 emissions. Taking this into account, sewage-sludge-based activated carbons were produced to study their CO2 adsorption capacity. Specifically, chemical activation with KOH and NaOH of previously pyrolyzed sewage sludge was carried out. The results obtained show that even with a low BET surface area, the adsorption capacity of these materials was comparable to that of a commercial activated carbon. As a consequence, the use of sewage-sludge-based activated carbons is a promising option for the capture of CO2 and an interesting application for this waste.