Income, energy expenditure and housing in Madrid: retrofitting policy implications

Fuel poverty can be defined as ‘the inability to afford adequate warmth in the home’ and it is the result of the combination of three factors: low household income, lack of energy efficiency and high energy bills. Within this context, the present research is aimed at characterizing, for the first time, the housing stock of fuel-poor households in the Autonomous Region of Madrid. Fuel poverty incidence was established and households were divided into six different groups according to their relative position regarding fuel and monetary poverty. The housing stock of each group is characterized and those households most in need are identified. These results enable energy retrofitting priorities to be established, focusing on the needs of the different household groups and accounting for their housing stock characteristics. This allows Spanish energy retrofitting policies to be assessed for their capability of tackling fuel poverty and makes it possible to suggest some improvements.

A multi-scale analysis of transforming agricultural markets in the context of globalization: implications for natural resources, food prices and rural poverty in Latin America

Vivimos una época en la que el mundo se transforma aceleradamente. La globalización está siguiendo un curso imparable, la población mundial así como la población urbana siguen creciendo, y en los países emergentes los ingresos promedios aumentan, resultando en un cambio también acelerado de las dietas y hábitos alimentarios. En conjunto esos factores están causando un aumento fundamental de la demanda de alimentos. Junto con la apertura de los mercados agrícolas, estos procesos han provocado un crecimiento del comercio internacional de alimentos durante la última década. Dado que muchos países de América Latina están dotados de abundancia de recursos naturales, estas tendencias han producido un crecimiento rápido de las exportaciones de bienes primarios desde América Latina al resto del mundo. En sólo 30 años la participación en el mercado agrícola de América Latina casi se ha duplicado, desde 10% en 1980 a 18% en 2010. Este aumento del comercio agrícola ha dado lugar a un debate sobre una serie de cuestiones cruciales relacionadas con los impactos del comercio en la seguridad alimentaria mundial, en el medio ambiente o en la reducción de la pobreza rural en países en desarrollo. Esta tesis aplica un marco integrado para analizar varios impactos relacionados con la transformación de los mercados agrícolas y los mercados rurales debidos a la globalización y, en particular, al progresivo aumento del comercio internacional. En concreto, la tesis aborda los siguientes temas: En primer lugar, la producción mundial de alimentos tendrá que aumentar considerablemente para poder satisfacer la demanda de una población mundial de 9000 millones personas en 2050, lo cual plantea grandes desafíos sobre los sistemas de la producción de alimentos. Alcanzar este logro, sin comprometer la integridad del medio ambiente en regiones exportadoras, es un reto aún mayor. En este contexto, la tesis analiza los efectos de la liberalización del comercio mundial, considerando distintas tecnologías de producción agraria, sobre unos indicadores de seguridad alimentaria en diferentes regiones del mundo y sobre distintos indicadores ambientales, teniendo en cuenta escalas diferentes en América Latina y el Caribe. La tesis utiliza el modelo “International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT)” – un modelo dinámico de equilibrio parcial del sector agrícola a escala global – para modelar la apertura de los mercados agrícolas así como diferentes escenarios de la producción hasta el año 2050. Los resultados del modelo están vinculados a modelos biofísicos para poder evaluar los cambios en la huella hídrica y la calidad del agua, así como para cuantificar los impactos del cambio en el uso del suelo sobre la biodiversidad y los stocks de carbono en 2050. Los resultados indican que la apertura de los mercados agrícolas es muy importante para mejorar la seguridad alimentaria a nivel mundial, sin embargo, produce también presiones ambientales indeseables en algunas regiones de América Latina. Contrastando dos escenarios que consideran distintas modos de producción, la expansión de la tierra agrícola frente a un escenario de la producción más intensiva, se demuestra que las mejoras de productividad son generalmente superiores a la expansión de las tierras agrícolas, desde un punto de vista económico e ambiental. En cambio, los escenarios de intensificación sostenible no sólo hacen posible una mayor producción de alimentos, sino que también generan menos impactos medioambientales que los otros escenarios futuros en todas sus dimensiones: biodiversidad, carbono, emisiones de nitratos y uso del agua. El análisis muestra que hay un “trade-off” entre el objetivo de alcanzar la sostenibilidad ambiental y el objetivo de la seguridad alimentaria, independiente del manejo agrícola en el futuro. En segundo lugar, a la luz de la reciente crisis de los precios de alimentos en los años 2007/08, la tesis analiza los impactos de la apertura de los mercados agrícolas en la transmisión de precios de los alimentos en seis países de América Latina: Argentina, Brasil, Chile, Colombia, México y el Perú. Para identificar las posibles relaciones de cointegración entre los índices de precios al consumidor de alimentos y los índices de precios de agrarios internacionales, sujetos a diferentes grados de apertura de mercados agrícolas en los seis países de América Latina, se utiliza un modelo simple de corrección de error (single equation error correction). Los resultados indican que la integración global de los mercados agrícolas ha dado lugar a diferentes tasas de transmisión de precios en los países investigados. Sobre todo en el corto plazo, las tasas de transmisión dependen del grado de apertura comercial, mientras que en el largo plazo las tasas de transmisión son elevadas, pero en gran medida independientes del régimen de comercio. Por lo tanto, durante un período de shocks de precios mundiales una mayor apertura del comercio trae consigo más inestabilidad de los precios domésticos a corto plazo y la resultante persistencia en el largo plazo. Sin embargo, estos resultados no verifican necesariamente la utilidad de las políticas comerciales, aplicadas frecuentemente por los gobiernos para amortiguar los shocks de precios. Primero, porque existe un riesgo considerable de volatilidad de los precios debido a cambios bruscos de la oferta nacional si se promueve la autosuficiencia en el país; y segundo, la política de proteccionismo asume el riesgo de excluir el país de participar en las cadenas de suministro de alto valor del sector agrícola, y por lo tanto esa política podría obstaculizar el desarrollo económico. Sin embargo, es indispensable establecer políticas efectivas para reducir la vulnerabilidad de los hogares a los aumentos repentinos de precios de alimentos, lo cual requiere una planificación gubernamental precisa con el presupuesto requerido disponible. En tercer lugar, la globalización afecta a la estructura de una economía y, por medios distintos, la distribución de los ingreso en un país. Perú sirve como ejemplo para investigar más profundamente las cuestiones relacionadas con los cambios en la distribución de los ingresos en zonas rurales. Perú, que es un país que está cada vez más integrado en los mercados mundiales, consiguió importantes descensos en la pobreza extrema en sus zonas rurales, pero a la vez adolece de alta incidencia de pobreza moderada y de desigualdad de los ingresos en zonas rural al menos durante el periodo comprendido entre 2004 y 2012. Esta parte de la tesis tiene como objetivo identificar las fuerzas impulsoras detrás de estas dinámicas en el Perú mediante el uso de un modelo de microsimulación basado en modelos de generación de ingresos aplicado a nivel los hogares rurales. Los resultados indican que la fuerza principal detrás de la reducción de la pobreza ha sido el crecimiento económico general de la economía, debido a las condiciones macroeconómicas favorables durante el periodo de estudio. Estos efectos de crecimiento beneficiaron a casi todos los sectores rurales, y dieron lugar a la disminución de la pobreza rural extrema, especialmente entre los agricultores de papas y de maíz. En parte, estos agricultores probablemente se beneficiaron de la apertura de los mercados agrícolas, que es lo que podría haber provocado un aumento de los precios al productor en tiempos de altos precios mundiales de los alimentos. Sin embargo, los resultados también sugieren que para una gran parte de la población más pobre existían barreras de entrada a la hora de poder participar en el empleo asalariado fuera de la agricultura o en la producción de cultivos de alto valor. Esto podría explicarse por la falta de acceso a unos activos importantes: por ejemplo, el nivel de educación de los pobres era apenas mejor en 2012 que en 2004; y también las dotaciones de tierra y de mano de obra, sobre todo de los productores pobres de maíz y patata, disminuyeron entre 2004 y 2012. Esto lleva a la conclusión de que aún hay margen para aplicar políticas para facilitar el acceso a estos activos, que podría contribuir a la erradicación de la pobreza rural. La tesis concluye que el comercio agrícola puede ser un importante medio para abastecer una población mundial creciente y más rica con una cantidad suficiente de calorías. Para evitar adversos efectos ambientales e impactos negativos para los consumidores y de los productores pobres, el enfoque debe centrarse en las mejoras de la productividad agrícola, teniendo en cuenta los límites ambientales y ser socialmente inclusivo. En este sentido, será indispensable seguir desarrollando soluciones tecnológicas que garanticen prácticas de producción agrícola minimizando el uso de recursos naturales. Además, para los pequeños pobres agricultores será fundamental eliminar las barreras de entrada a los mercados de exportación que podría tener efectos indirectos favorables a través de la adopción de nuevas tecnologías alcanzables a través de mercados internacionales. ABSTRACT The world is in a state of rapid transition. Ongoing globalization, population growth, rising living standards and increasing urbanization, accompanied by changing dietary patterns throughout the world, are increasing the demand for food. Together with more open trade regimes, this has triggered growing international agricultural trade during the last decade. For many Latin American countries, which are gifted with relative natural resource abundance, these trends have fueled rapid export growth of primary goods. In just 30 years, the Latin American agricultural market share has almost doubled from 10% in 1980 to 18% in 2010. These market developments have given rise to a debate around a number of crucial issues related to the role of agricultural trade for global food security, for the environment or for poverty reduction in developing countries. This thesis uses an integrated framework to analyze a broad array of possible impacts related to transforming agricultural and rural markets in light of globalization, and in particular of increasing trade activity. Specifically, the following issues are approached: First, global food production will have to rise substantially by the year 2050 to meet effective demand of a nine billion people world population which poses major challenges to food production systems. Doing so without compromising environmental integrity in exporting regions is an even greater challenge. In this context, the thesis explores the effects of future global trade liberalization on food security indicators in different world regions and on a variety of environmental indicators at different scales in Latin America and the Caribbean, in due consideration of different future agricultural production practices. The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) –a global dynamic partial equilibrium model of the agricultural sector developed by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)– is applied to run different future production scenarios, and agricultural trade regimes out to 2050. Model results are linked to biophysical models, used to assess changes in water footprints and water quality, as well as impacts on biodiversity and carbon stocks from land use change by 2050. Results indicate that further trade liberalization is crucial for improving food security globally, but that it would also lead to more environmental pressures in some regions across Latin America. Contrasting land expansion versus more intensified agriculture shows that productivity improvements are generally superior to agricultural land expansion, from an economic and environmental point of view. Most promising for achieving food security and environmental goals, in equal measure, is the sustainable intensification scenario. However, the analysis shows that there are trade-offs between environmental and food security goals for all agricultural development paths. Second, in light of the recent food price crisis of 2007/08, the thesis looks at the impacts of increasing agricultural market integration on food price transmission from global to domestic markets in six Latin American countries, namely Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru. To identify possible cointegrating relationships between the domestic food consumer price indices and world food price levels, subject to different degrees of agricultural market integration in the six Latin American countries, a single equation error correction model is used. Results suggest that global agricultural market integration has led to different levels of price path-through in the studied countries. Especially in the short-run, transmission rates depend on the degree of trade openness, while in the long-run transmission rates are high, but largely independent of the country-specific trade regime. Hence, under world price shocks more trade openness brings with it more price instability in the short-term and the resulting persistence in the long-term. However, these findings do not necessarily verify the usefulness of trade policies, often applied by governments to buffer such price shocks. First, because there is a considerable risk of price volatility due to domestic supply shocks if self-sufficiency is promoted. Second, protectionism bears the risk of excluding a country from participating in beneficial high-value agricultural supply chains, thereby hampering economic development. Nevertheless, to reduce households’ vulnerability to sudden and large increases of food prices, effective policies to buffer food price shocks should be put in place, but must be carefully planned with the required budget readily available. Third, globalization affects the structure of an economy and, by different means, the distribution of income in a country. Peru serves as an example to dive deeper into questions related to changes in the income distribution in rural areas. Peru, a country being increasingly integrated into global food markets, experienced large drops in extreme rural poverty, but persistently high rates of moderate rural poverty and rural income inequality between 2004 and 2012. The thesis aims at disentangling the driving forces behind these dynamics by using a microsimulation model based on rural household income generation models. Results provide evidence that the main force behind poverty reduction was overall economic growth of the economy due to generally favorable macroeconomic market conditions. These growth effects benefited almost all rural sectors, and led to declines in extreme rural poverty, especially among potato and maize farmers. In part, these farmers probably benefited from policy changes towards more open trade regimes and the resulting higher producer prices in times of elevated global food price levels. However, the results also suggest that entry barriers existed for the poorer part of the population to participate in well-paid wage-employment outside of agriculture or in high-value crop production. This could be explained by a lack of sufficient access to important rural assets. For example, poor people’s educational attainment was hardly better in 2012 than in 2004. Also land and labor endowments, especially of (poor) maize and potato growers, rather decreased than increased over time. This leads to the conclusion that there is still scope for policy action to facilitate access to these assets, which could contribute to the eradication of rural poverty. The thesis concludes that agricultural trade can be one important means to provide a growing and richer world population with sufficient amounts of calories. To avoid adverse environmental effects and negative impacts for poor food consumers and producers, the focus should lie on agricultural productivity improvements, considering environmental limits and be socially inclusive. In this sense, it will be crucial to further develop technological solutions that guarantee resource-sparing agricultural production practices, and to remove entry barriers for small poor farmers to export markets which might allow for technological spill-over effects from high-value global agricultural supply chains.

Innovative tools to address drought risk in grazing lands

Drought spells can impose severe impacts in most vulnerable farms. It is well known that uninsured exposure exacerbates income inequality in farming systems. However, high administrative costs of traditional insurance hinder small farmers? access to risk management tools. The existence of moral hazard and systemic risk prevents the implementation of traditional insurance programs to address drought risk in rural areas. Innovative technologies like satellite images are being used to derive vegetation index which are highly correlated with drought impacts. The implementation of this technology in agricultural insurance may help to overcome some of the limitations of traditional insurance. However, basis risk has been identified as one of the main problems that hinder the acceptance of index insurance. In this paper we focus on the analyses of basis risk under different contract options in the grazing lands of the Araucanía region. A vegetation index database is used to develop an actuarial insurance model and estimate risk premiums for moderate and severe drought coverage. Risk premium sharply increases with risk coverage. In contrast with previous findings in the literature, our results are not conclusive and show that lowering the coverage level does not necessarily imply a reduction in basis risk. Further analyses of the relation between contract design and basis risk is a promising area of research that may render an important social utility for most vulnerable farming systems.

User benefit assessment by a dynamic LUTI model for Madrid

Assessing users’ benefit in a transport policy implementation has been studied by many researchers using theoretical or empirical measures. However, few of them measure users’ benefit in a different way from the consumer surplus. Therefore, this paper aims to assess a new measure of user benefits by weighting consumer surplus in order to include equity assessment for different transport policies simulated in a dynamic middle-term LUTI model adapted to the case study of Madrid. Three different transport policies, including road pricing, parking charge and public transport improvement have been simulated through the Metropolitan Activity Relocation Simulator, MARS, the LUTI calibrated model for Madrid). A social welfare function (WF) is defined using a cost benefit analysis function that includes mainly costs and benefits of users and operators of the transport system. Particularly, the part of welfare function concerning the users, (i.e. consumer surplus), is modified by a compensating weight (CW) which represents the inverse of household income level. Based on the modified social welfare function, the effects on the measure of users benefits are estimated and compared with the old WF ́s results as well. The result of the analysis shows that road pricing leads a negative effect on the users benefits specially on the low income users. Actually, the road pricing and parking charge implementation results like a regressive policy especially at long term. Public transport improvement scenario brings more positive effects on low income user benefits. The integrated (road pricing and increasing public services) policy scenario is the one which receive the most user benefits. The results of this research could be a key issue to understanding the relationship between transport systems policies and user benefits distribution in a metropolitan context.

Fuel poverty as a determinant in energy retrofitting actions

Fuel poverty can be defined as “the inability to afford adequate warmth in the home" and it is the result of the combination of three items: low household income, housing lack of energy efficiency and high energy bills. Although it affects a growing number of households within the European Union only some countries have an official definition for it. In 2013, the European Parliament claimed the Commission and Estate Members to develop different policies in order to fight household energy vulnerability. The importance of tackling fuel poverty is based on the critical consequences it has for human health living below certain temperatures. In Spain some advances have been made in this field but main existing studies remain at the statistical level and do not deepen the understanding of the problem from the perspective of dwelling indoor habitability conditions. What is more, this concept is yet to be officially defined. This paper presents the evaluation of fuel poverty in a building block of social housing located in the centre of Zaragoza and how this issue determined the strategies implemented in the energy retrofitting intervention project. At a first step, fuel poverty was appraised through the exploration of indoor thermal conditions. The adaptive thermal comfort (UNE-EN 15251:2008) method was used to establish the appropriate indoor temperatures and consequently to determine what can be called 'comfort gap'. Results were collated and verified with energy bills collection and a survey work that gathered data from neighbours. All this permitted pointing out those households more in need. Results from the social analysis combined with the evaluation of the building thermal performance determined the intervention. The renovation project was aimed at the implementation of passive strategies that improve households thermal comfort in order to alleviate households fuel poverty situation. This research is part of the project NewSolutions4OldHousing (LIFE10 ENV/ES/439) cofounded by the European Commission under the LIFE+ Programme.

Analysis of the impact of globalization and economic growth on food security in developing countries

A pesar de los importantes avances en la reducción del hambre, la seguridad alimentaria continúa siendo un reto de dimensión internacional. La seguridad alimentaria es un concepto amplio y multidimensional, cuyo análisis abarca distintas escalas y horizontes temporales. Dada su complejidad, la identificación de las causas de la inseguridad alimentaria y la priorización de las medias para abordarlas, son dos cuestiones que suscitan un intenso debate en la actualidad. El objetivo de esta tesis es evaluar el impacto de la globalización y el crecimiento económico en la seguridad alimentaria en los países en desarrollo, desde una perspectiva macro y un horizonte temporal a largo plazo. La influencia de la globalización se aborda de una manera secuencial. En primer lugar, se analiza la relación entre la inversión público-privada en infraestructuras y las exportaciones agrarias. A continuación, se estudia el impacto de las exportaciones agrarias en los indicadores de seguridad alimentaria. El estudio del impacto del crecimiento económico aborda los cambios paralelos en la distribución de la renta, y cómo la inequidad influye en el comportamiento de la seguridad alimentaria nacional. Además, se analiza en qué medida el crecimiento económico contribuye a acelerar el proceso de mejora de la seguridad alimentaria. Con el fin de conseguir los objetivos mencionados, se llevan a cabo varios análisis econométricos basados en datos de panel, en el que se combinan datos de corte transversal de 52 países y datos temporales comprendidos en el periodo 1991-2012. Se analizan tanto variables en niveles como variables en tasas de cambio anual. Se aplican los modelos de estimación de efectos variables y efectos fijos, ambos en niveles y en primeras diferencias. La tesis incluye cuatro tipos de modelos econométricos, cada uno de ellos con sus correspondientes pruebas de robustez y especificaciones. Los resultados matizan la importancia de la globalización y el crecimiento económico como mecanismos de mejora de la seguridad alimentaria en los países en desarrollo. Se obtienen dos conclusiones relativas a la globalización. En primer lugar, los resultados sugieren que la promoción de las inversiones privadas en infraestructuras contribuye a aumentar las exportaciones agrarias. En segundo lugar, se observa que las exportaciones agrarias pueden tener un impacto negativo en los indicadores de seguridad alimentaria. La combinación de estas dos conclusiones sugiere que la apertura comercial y financiera no contribuye por sí misma a la mejora de la seguridad alimentaria en los países en desarrollo. La apertura internacional de los países en desarrollo ha de ir acompañada de políticas e inversiones que desarrollen sectores productivos de alto valor añadido, que fortalezcan la economía nacional y reduzcan su dependencia exterior. En relación al crecimiento económico, a pesar del incuestionable hecho de que el crecimiento económico es una condición necesaria para reducir los niveles de subnutrición, no es una condición suficiente. Se han identificado tres estrategias adicionales que han de acompañar al crecimiento económico con el fin de intensificar su impacto positivo sobre la subnutrición. Primero, es necesario que el crecimiento económico sea acompañado de una distribución más equitativa de los ingresos. Segundo, el crecimiento económico ha de reflejarse en un aumento de inversiones en salud, agua y saneamiento y educación. Se observa que, incluso en ausencia de crecimiento económico, mejoras en el acceso a agua potable contribuyen a reducir los niveles de población subnutrida. Tercero, el crecimiento económico sostenible en el largo plazo parece tener un mayor impacto positivo sobre la seguridad alimentaria que el crecimiento económico más volátil o inestable en el corto plazo. La estabilidad macroeconómica se identifica como una condición necesaria para alcanzar una mayor mejora en la seguridad alimentaria, incluso habiéndose mejorado la equidad en la distribución de los ingresos. Por último, la tesis encuentra que los países en desarrollo analizados han experimentado diferentes trayectorias no lineales en su proceso de mejora de sus niveles de subnutrición. Los resultados sugieren que un mayor nivel inicial de subnutrición y el crecimiento económico son responsables de una respuesta más rápida al reto de la mejora de la seguridad alimentaria. ABSTRACT Despite the significant reductions of hunger, food security still remains a global challenge. Food security is a wide concept that embraces multiple dimensions, and has spatial-temporal scales. Because of its complexity, the identification of the drivers underpinning food insecurity and the prioritization of measures to address them are a subject of intensive debate. This thesis attempts to assess the impact of globalization and economic growth on food security in developing countries with a macro level scale (country) and using a long-term approach. The influence of globalization is addressed in a sequential way. First, the impact of public-private investment in infrastructure on agricultural exports in developing countries is analyzed. Secondly, an assessment is conducted to determine the impact of agricultural exports on food security indicators. The impact of economic growth focuses on the parallel changes in income inequality and how the income distribution influences countries' food security performance. Furthermore, the thesis analyzes to what extent economic growth helps accelerating food security improvements. To address the above mentioned goals, various econometric models are formulated. Models use panel data procedures combining cross-sectional data of 52 countries and time series data from 1991 to 2012. Yearly data are expressed both in levels and in changes. The estimation models applied are random effects estimation and fixed effects estimations, both in levels and in first differences. The thesis includes four families of econometric models, each with its own set of robustness checks and specifications. The results qualify the relevance of globalization and economic growth as enabling mechanisms for improving food security in developing countries. Concerning globalization, two main conclusions can be drawn. First, results showed that enhancing foreign private investment in infrastructures contributes to increase agricultural exports. Second, agricultural exports appear to have a negative impact on national food security indicators. These two conclusions suggest that trade and financial openness per se do not contribute directly to improve food security in development countries. Both measures should be accompanied by investments and policies to support the development of national high value productive sectors, to strengthen the domestic economy and reduce its external dependency. Referring to economic growth, despite the unquestionable fact that income growth is a pre-requisite for reducing undernourishment, results suggest that it is a necessary but not a sufficient condition. Three additional strategies should accompany economic growth to intensifying its impact on food security. Firstly, it is necessary that income growth should be accompanied by a better distribution of income. Secondly, income growth needs to be followed by investments and policies in health, sanitation and education to improve food security. Even if economic growth falters, sustained improvements in the access to drinking water may still give rise to reductions in the percentage of undernourished people. And thirdly, long-term economic growth appears to have a greater impact on reducing hunger than growth regimes that combine periods of growth peaks followed by troughs. Macroeconomic stability is a necessary condition for accelerating food security. Finally, the thesis finds that the developing countries analyzed have experienced different non-linear paths toward improving food security. Results also show that a higher initial level of undernourishment and economic growth result in a faster response for improving food security.

Exploring users inter-temporal preferences for measuring transport social equity effects

There exist different ways for defining a welfare function. Traditionally, welfare economic theory foundation is based on the Net Present Value (NPV) calculation where the time dependent preferences of considered agents are taken into account. However, the time preferences, remains a controversial subject. Currently, the traditional approach employs a unique discount rate for various agents. Nevertheless, this way of discounting appears inconsistent with sustainable development. New research work suggests that the discount rate may not be a homogeneous value. The discount rates may change following the individual’s preferences. A significant body of evidence suggests that people do not behave following a constant discount rate. In fact, UK Government has quickly recognized the power of the arguments for time-varying rates, as it has done in its official guidance to Ministries on the appraisal of investments and policies. Other authors deal with not just time preference but with uncertainty about future income (precautionary saving). In a situation in which economic growth rates are similar across time periods, the rationale for declining social optimal discount rates is driven by the preferences of the individuals in the economy, rather than expectations of growth. However, these approaches have been mainly focused on long-term policies where intergenerational risks may appear. The traditional cost-benefit analysis (CBA) uses a unique discount rate derived from market interest rates or investment rates of return for discounting the costs and benefits of all social agents included in the CBA. However, recent literature showed that a more adequate measure of social benefit is possible by using different discount rates including inter-temporal preferences rate of users, private investment discount rate and intertemporal preferences rate of government. Actually, the costs of opportunity may differ amongst individuals, firms, governments, or society in general, as do the returns on savings. In general, the firms or operators require an investment rate linked to the current return on savings, while the discount rate of consumers-users depends on their time preferences with respect of the current and the future consumption, as well as society can take into account the intergenerational well-being, adopting a lower discount rate for today’s generation. Time discount rate of social actors (users, operators, government and society) places a lower value in a future gain, but the uncertainty about future income strongly determines the individual preferences. These time and uncertainty depends on preferences and should be integrated into a transport policy formulation that may have significant social impacts. The discount rate of a user cannot be the same than the operator’s discount rate. The preferences of both are different. In addition, another school of thought suggests that people, such as a social group, may have different attitudes towards future costs and benefits. Particularly, the users have different discount rates related to their income. Some research work tried to modify user discount rates using a compensating weight which represents the inverse of household income level. The inter-temporal preferences are a proxy of the willingness to pay during the time. Its consideration is important in order to make acceptable or not a policy or investment

Fuel poverty analysis in three spanish autonomous regions. Some retrofitting policy considerations

A person is to be regarded as living ‘in fuel poverty’ if he is a member of a household living on a lower income in a home which cannot be kept warm at a reasonable cost. This situation is mainly triggered by three factors: low household income, lack of energy efficiency and high energy invoices. Some European countries have already made some advantages towards officially defining fuel poverty in their countries. Nevertheless, in Spain only some research has been done and an official definition of the term is yet to come. This research explores the relation among households’ income, energy expenditure and housing stock in three autonomous regions in Spain in order to evaluate the housing stock of the fuel poor as well as to identify those households more in need. The results of the research allow establishing energy retrofitting priorities of existing housing stock as well as identifying current retrofitting policies limitations on order to tackle fuel poverty.