A method to incorporate the effect of taxonomic uncertainty on multivariate analyses of ecological data

Researchers in ecology commonly use multivariate analyses (e.g. redundancy analysis, canonical correspondence analysis, Mantel correlation, multivariate analysis of variance) to interpret patterns in biological data and relate these patterns to environmental predictors. There has been, however, little recognition of the errors associated with biological data and the influence that these may have on predictions derived from ecological hypotheses. We present a permutational method that assesses the effects of taxonomic uncertainty on the multivariate analyses typically used in the analysis of ecological data. The procedure is based on iterative randomizations that randomly re-assign non identified species in each site to any of the other species found in the remaining sites. After each re-assignment of species identities, the multivariate method at stake is run and a parameter of interest is calculated. Consequently, one can estimate a range of plausible values for the parameter of interest under different scenarios of re-assigned species identities. We demonstrate the use of our approach in the calculation of two parameters with an example involving tropical tree species from western Amazonia: 1) the Mantel correlation between compositional similarity and environmental distances between pairs of sites, and; 2) the variance explained by environmental predictors in redundancy analysis (RDA). We also investigated the effects of increasing taxonomic uncertainty (i.e. number of unidentified species), and the taxonomic resolution at which morphospecies are determined (genus-resolution, family-resolution, or fully undetermined species) on the uncertainty range of these parameters. To achieve this, we performed simulations on a tree dataset from southern Mexico by randomly selecting a portion of the species contained in the dataset and classifying them as unidentified at each level of decreasing taxonomic resolution. An analysis of covariance showed that both taxonomic uncertainty and resolution significantly influence the uncertainty range of the resulting parameters. Increasing taxonomic uncertainty expands our uncertainty of the parameters estimated both in the Mantel test and RDA. The effects of increasing taxonomic resolution, however, are not as evident. The method presented in this study improves the traditional approaches to study compositional change in ecological communities by accounting for some of the uncertainty inherent to biological data. We hope that this approach can be routinely used to estimate any parameter of interest obtained from compositional data tables when faced with taxonomic uncertainty.

Using ecological niche models to support tree species selection for forest restoration planning in largely deforested regions

Species selection for forest restoration is often supported by expert knowledge on local distribution patterns of native tree species. This approach is not applicable to largely deforested regions unless enough data on pre-human tree species distribution is available. In such regions, ecological niche models may provide essential information to support species selection in the framework of forest restoration planning. In this study we used ecological niche models to predict habitat suitability for native tree species in "Tierra de Campos" region, an almost totally deforested area of the Duero Basin (Spain). Previously available models provide habitat suitability predictions for dominant native tree species, but including non-dominant tree species in the forest restoration planning may be desirable to promote biodiversity, specially in largely deforested areas were near seed sources are not expected. We used the Forest Map of Spain as species occurrence data source to maximize the number of modeled tree species. Penalized logistic regression was used to train models using climate and lithological predictors. Using model predictions a set of tools were developed to support species selection in forest restoration planning. Model predictions were used to build ordered lists of suitable species for each cell of the study area. The suitable species lists were summarized drawing maps that showed the two most suitable species for each cell. Additionally, potential distribution maps of the suitable species for the study area were drawn. For a scenario with two dominant species, the models predicted a mixed forest (Quercus ilex and a coniferous tree species) for almost one half of the study area. According to the models, 22 non-dominant native tree species are suitable for the study area, with up to six suitable species per cell. The model predictions pointed to Crataegus monogyna, Juniperus communis, J.oxycedrus and J.phoenicea as the most suitable non-dominant native tree species in the study area. Our results encourage further use of ecological niche models for forest restoration planning in largely deforested regions.

Leftovers in seed dispersal: ecological implications of partial seed consumption for oak regeneration

1. Successful seed dispersal by animals is assumed to occur when undamaged seeds arrive at a favourable microsite. Most seed removal and dispersal studies consider only two possible seed fates, predation or escape intact. Whether partial consumption of seeds has ecological implications for natural regeneration is unclear. We studied partial consumption of seeds in a rodent-dispersed oak species. 2. Fifteen percent of dispersed acorns were found partially eaten in a field experiment. Most damage affected only the basal portion of the seeds, resulting in no embryo damage. Partially eaten acorns had no differences in dispersal distance compared to intact acorns but were recovered at farther distances than completely consumed acorns. 3. Partially eaten acorns were found under shrub cover unlike intact acorns that were mostly dispersed to open microhabitats. 4. Partially eaten acorns were not found buried proportionally more often than intact acorns, leading to desiccation and exposure to biotic agents (predators, bacteria and fungi). However, partial consumption caused more rapid germination, which enables the acorns to tolerate the negative effects of exposure. 5. Re-caching and shrub cover as microhabitat of destination promote partial seed consumption. Larger acorns escaped predation more often and had higher uneaten cotyledon mass. Satiation at seed level is the most plausible explanation for partial consumption. 6. Partial consumption caused no differences in root biomass when acorns experienced only small cotyledon loss. However, root biomass was lower when acorns experienced heavy loss of tissue but, surprisingly, they produced longer roots, which allow the seeds to gain access sooner to deeper resources. 7.Synthesis. Partial consumption of acorns is an important event in the oak regeneration process, both quantitatively and qualitatively. Most acorns were damaged non-lethally, without decreasing both dispersal distances and the probability of successful establishment. Faster germination and production of longer roots allow partially eaten seeds to tolerate better the exposure disadvantages caused by the removal of the pericarp and the non-buried deposition. Consequently, partially consumed seeds can contribute significantly to natural regeneration and must be considered in future seed dispersal studies.

Integrated planning for ecological urban regeneration

Considering that the vast majority of housing stock existing in 2011 will be used to satisfy residential needs in the year 2020 and beyond, ecological urban regeneration appears clearly as the key issue in relation to global urban sustainability for the most part of this century. Thus, if the 1992 Rio Summit identified the urban environment as the main arena where the global environmental crisis should be fought, 20 years later we must emphasize that it is mainly to the real cities and territories around us now where we should address our attention

Estrategias innovadoras para la gestión del riesgo de sequía en sistemas ganaderos extensivos

La vulnerabilidad de los sistemas ganaderos de pastoreo pone en evidencia la necesidad de herramientas para evaluar y mitigar los efectos de la sequía. El avance en la teledetección ha despertado el interés por explotar potenciales aplicaciones, y está dando lugar a un intenso desarrollo de innovaciones en distintos campos. Una de estas áreas es la gestión del riesgo climático, en donde la utilización de índices de vegetación permite la evaluación de la sequía. En esta investigación, se analiza el impacto de la sequía y se evalúa el potencial de nuevas tecnologías como la teledetección para la gestión del riesgo de sequía en sistemas de ganadería extensiva. Para ello, se desarrollan tres aplicaciones: (i) evaluar el impacto económico de la sequía en una explotación ganadera extensiva de la dehesa de Andalucía, (ii) elaborar mapas de vulnerabilidad a la sequía en pastos de Chile y (iii) diseñar y evaluar el potencial de un seguro indexado para sequía en pastos en la región de Coquimbo en Chile. En la primera aplicación, se diseña un modelo dinámico y estocástico que integra aspectos climáticos, ecológicos, agronómicos y socioeconómicos para evaluar el riesgo de sequía. El modelo simula una explotación ganadera tipo de la dehesa de Andalucía para el período 1999-2010. El método de Análisis Histórico y la simulación de MonteCarlo se utilizan para identificar los principales factores de riesgo de la explotación, entre los que destacan, los periodos de inicios del verano e inicios de invierno. Los resultados muestran la existencia de un desfase temporal entre el riesgo climático y riesgo económico, teniendo este último un periodo de duración más extenso en el tiempo. También, revelan que la intensidad, frecuencia y duración son tres atributos cruciales que determinan el impacto económico de la sequía. La estrategia de reducción de la carga ganadera permite aminorar el riesgo, pero conlleva una disminución en el margen bruto de la explotación. La segunda aplicación está dedicada a la elaboración de mapas de vulnerabilidad a la sequia en pastos de Chile. Para ello, se propone y desarrolla un índice de riesgo económico (IRESP) sencillo de interpretar y replicable, que integra factores de riesgo y estrategias de adaptación para obtener una medida del Valor en Riesgo, es decir, la máxima pérdida esperada en un año con un nivel de significación del 5%.La representación espacial del IRESP pone en evidencia patrones espaciales y diferencias significativas en la vulnerabilidad a la sequía a lo largo de Chile. Además, refleja que la vulnerabilidad no siempre esta correlacionada con el riesgo climático y demuestra la importancia de considerar las estrategias de adaptación. Las medidas de autocorrelación espacial revelan que el riesgo sistémico es considerablemente mayor en el sur que en el resto de zonas. Los resultados demuestran que el IRESP transmite información pertinente y, que los mapas de vulnerabilidad pueden ser una herramienta útil en el diseño de políticas y toma de decisiones para la gestión del riesgo de sequía. La tercera aplicación evalúa el potencial de un seguro indexado para sequía en pastos en la región de Coquimbo en Chile. Para lo cual, se desarrolla un modelo estocástico para estimar la prima actuarialmente justa del seguro y se proponen y evalúan pautas alternativas para mejorar el diseño del contrato. Se aborda el riesgo base, el principal problema de los seguros indexados identificado en la literatura y, que está referido a la correlación imperfecta del índice con las pérdidas de la explotación. Para ello, se sigue un enfoque bayesiano que permite evaluar el impacto en el riesgo base de las pautas de diseño propuestas: i) una zonificación por clúster que considera aspectos espacio-temporales, ii) un período de garantía acotado a los ciclos fenológicos del pasto y iii) umbral de garantía. Los resultados muestran que tanto la zonificación como el periodo de garantía reducen el riesgo base considerablemente. Sin embargo, el umbral de garantía tiene un efecto ambiguo sobre el riesgo base. Por otra parte, la zonificación por clúster contribuye a aminorar el riesgo sistémico que enfrentan las aseguradoras. Estos resultados han puesto de manifiesto que un buen diseño de contrato puede tener un doble dividendo, por un lado aumentar su utilidad y, por otro, reducir el coste del seguro. Un diseño de contrato eficiente junto con los avances en la teledetección y un adecuado marco institucional son los pilares básicos para el buen funcionamiento de un programa de seguro. Las nuevas tecnologías ofrecen un importante potencial para la innovación en la gestión del riesgo climático. Los avances en este campo pueden proporcionar importantes beneficios sociales en los países en desarrollo y regiones vulnerables, donde las herramientas para gestionar eficazmente los riesgos sistémicos como la sequía pueden ser de gran ayuda para el desarrollo. The vulnerability of grazing livestock systems highlights the need for tools to assess and mitigate the adverse impact of drought. The recent and rapid progress in remote sensing has awakened an interest for tapping into potential applications, triggering intensive efforts to develop innovations in a number of spheres. One of these areas is climate risk management, where the use of vegetation indices facilitates assessment of drought. This research analyzes drought impacts and evaluates the potential of new technologies such as remote sensing to manage drought risk in extensive livestock systems. Three essays in drought risk management are developed to: (i) assess the economic impact of drought on a livestock farm in the Andalusian Dehesa, (ii) build drought vulnerability maps in Chilean grazing lands, and (iii) design and evaluate the potential of an index insurance policy to address the risk of drought in grazing lands in Coquimbo, Chile. In the first essay, a dynamic and stochastic farm model is designed combining climate, agronomic, socio-economic and ecological aspects to assess drought risk. The model is developed to simulate a representative livestock farm in the Dehesa of Andalusia for the time period 1999-2010. Burn analysis and MonteCarlo simulation methods are used to identify the significance of various risk sources at the farm. Most notably, early summer and early winter are identified as periods of peak risk. Moreover, there is a significant time lag between climate and economic risk and this later last longer than the former. It is shown that intensity, frequency and duration of the drought are three crucial attributes that shape the economic impact of drought. Sensitivity analysis is conducted to assess the sustainability of farm management strategies and demonstrates that lowering the stocking rate reduces farmer exposure to drought risk but entails a reduction in the expected gross margin. The second essay, mapping drought vulnerability in Chilean grazing lands, proposes and builds an index of economic risk (IRESP) that is replicable and simple to interpret. This methodology integrates risk factors and adaptation strategies to deliver information on Value at Risk, maximum expected losses at 5% significance level. Mapping IRESP provides evidence about spatial patterns and significant differences in drought vulnerability across Chilean grazing lands. Spatial autocorrelation measures reveal that systemic risk is considerably larger in the South as compared to Northern or Central Regions. Furthermore, it is shown that vulnerability is not necessarily correlated with climate risk and that adaptation strategies do matter. These results show that IRESP conveys relevant information and that vulnerability maps may be useful tools to assess policy design and decision-making in drought risk management. The third essay develops a stochastic model to estimate the actuarially fair premium and evaluates the potential of an indexed insurance policy to manage drought risk in Coquimbo, a relevant livestock farming region of Chile. Basis risk refers to the imperfect correlation of the index and farmer loses and is identified in the literature as a main limitation of index insurance. A Bayesian approach is proposed to assess the impact on basis risk of alternative guidelines in contract design: i) A cluster zoning that considers space-time aspects, ii) A guarantee period bounded to fit phenological cycles, and iii) the triggering index threshold. Results show that both the proposed zoning and guarantee period considerably reduces basis risk. However, the triggering index threshold has an ambiguous effect on basis risk. On the other hand, cluster zoning contributes to ameliorate systemic risk faced by the insurer. These results highlighted that adequate contract design is important and may result in double dividend. On the one hand, increasing farmers’ utility and, secondly, reducing the cost of insurance. An efficient contract design coupled with advances in remote sensing and an appropriate institutional framework are the basis for an efficient operation of an insurance program. The new technologies offer significant potential for innovation in climate risk managements. Progress in this field is capturing increasing attention and may provide important social gains in developing countries and vulnerable regions where the tools to efficiently manage systemic risks, such as drought, may be a means to foster development.

Provision of ecological infrastructures to increase pollinators and other beneficial organisms in rainfed crops in Central Spain

In sustainable intensive agriculture, the biodiversity of monoculture fields can be increased by managing the field margins to provide ecological infrastructures that serve as refuges and resources for beneficial organisms (pollinators and natural enemies). In the present work we summarize two years of field trials following the goal to increase biodiversity of beneficial fauna in a barley field in Central Spain by sowing different herbaceous mixtures in the field margins. The presence of arthropods visiting flowers on plots sown with different types of seed mixtures and unsown natural flora (control plot) was compared by visual sampling every week between April and June. The results showed that a combination of herbaceous big-size seeds was the most successful mixture emerging under our experimental conditions and achieved a higher number of visits of beneficial arthropods than the unsown natural vegetation.

An ecological approach to anomaly detection: the EIA Model.

The presented work proposes a new approach for anomaly detection. This approach is based on changes in a population of evolving agents under stress. If conditions are appropriate, changes in the population (modeled by the bioindicators) are representative of the alterations to the environment. This approach, based on an ecological view, improves functionally traditional approaches to the detection of anomalies. To verify this assertion, experiments based on Network Intrussion Detection Systems are presented. The results are compared with the behaviour of other bioinspired approaches and machine learning techniques.

Nativos digitales, inteligencia digital ¿Homo digitalis?

En la exposición Orígenes: Cinco hitos en la evolución humana, celebrada en Vielha (Valle de Arán) durante el verano de 2010, pudo leerse lo siguiente: «Hace unos 2,5 millones de años una especie de primate, que podría ser el primer representante del género humano (Homo habilis), destaca sobre las especies existentes.

Ecological and genetic determinants of Pepino mosaic virus emergence

Virus emergence is a complex phenomenon, which generally involves spread to a new host from a wild host, followed by adaptation to the new host. Although viruses account for the largest fraction of emerging crop pathogens, knowledge about their emergence is incomplete. We address here the question of whether Pepino mosaic virus (PepMV) emergence as a major tomato pathogen worldwide could have involved spread from wild to cultivated plant species and host adaptation. For this, we surveyed natural populations of wild tomatoes in southern Peru for PepMV infection. PepMV incidence, genetic variation, population structure, and accumulation in various hosts were analyzed. PepMV incidence in wild tomatoes was high, and a strain not yet reported in domestic tomato was characterized. This strain had a wide host range within the Solanaceae, multiplying efficiently in most assayed Solanum species and being adapted to wild tomato hosts. Conversely, PepMV isolates from tomato crops showed evidence of adaptation to domestic tomato, possibly traded against adaptation to wild tomatoes. Phylogenetic reconstructions indicated that the most probable ancestral sequence came from a wild Solanum species. A high incidence of PepMV in wild tomato relatives would favor virus spread to crops and its efficient multiplication in different Solanum species, including tomato, allowing its establishment as an epidemic pathogen. Later, adaptation to tomato, traded off against adaptation to other Solanum species, would isolate tomato populations from those in other hosts.

Territorial cohesion impacts of high-speed rail under different zoning systems

Large-scale transport infrastructure projects such as high-speed rail (HSR) produce significant effects on the spatial distribution of accessibility. These effects, commonly known as territorial cohesion effects, are receiving increasing attention in the research literature. However, there is little empirical research into the sensitivity of these cohesion results to methodological issues such as the definition of the limits of the study area or the zoning system. In a previous paper (Ortega et al., 2012), we investigated the influence of scale issues, comparing the cohesion results obtained at four different planning levels. This paper makes an additional contribution to our research with the investigation of the influence of zoning issues. We analyze the extent to which changes in the size of the units of analysis influence the measurement of spatial inequalities. The methodology is tested by application to the Galician (north-western) HSR corridor, with a length of nearly 670 km, included in the Spanish PEIT (Strategic Transport and Infrastructure Plan) 2005-2020. We calculated the accessibility indicators for the Galician HSR corridor and assessed their corresponding territorial distribution. We used five alternative zoning systems depending on the method of data representation used (vector or raster), and the level of detail (cartographic accuracy or cell size). Our results suggest that the choice between a vector-based and raster-based system has important implications. The vector system produces a higher mean accessibility value and a more polarized accessibility distribution than raster systems. The increased pixel size of raster-based systems tends to give rise to higher mean accessibility values and a more balanced accessibility distribution. Our findings strongly encourage spatial analysts to acknowledge that the results of their analyses may vary widely according to the definition of the units of analysis.

Cu(In,Ga)Se2 absorber thinning and the homo-interface model: Influence of Mo back contact and 3-stage process on device characteristics

Thinning the absorber layer is one of the possibilities envisaged to further decrease the production costs of Cu(In,Ga)Se2 (CIGSe) thin films solar cell technology. In the present study, the electronic transport in submicron CIGSe-based devices has been investigated and compared to that of standard devices. It is observed that when the absorber is around 0.5 μm-thick, tunnelling enhanced interface recombination dominates, which harms cells energy conversion efficiency. It is also shown that by varying either the properties of the Mo back contact or the characteristics of 3-stage growth processing, one can shift the dominating recombination mechanism from interface to space charge region and thereby improve the cells efficiency. Discussions on these experimental facts led to the conclusions that 3-stage process implies the formation of a CIGSe/CIGSe homo-interface, whose location as well as properties rule the device operation; its influence is enhanced in submicron CIGSe based solar cells.

Use of Biological Motion based Cues and Ecological Sounds in the Neurorehabilitation of Apraxia

Technological progress in the area of informatics and human interface platforms create a window of opportunities for the neurorehablitation of patients with motor impairments. The CogWatch project (www.cogwatch.eu) aims to create an intelligent assistance system to improve motor planning and execution in patients with apraxia during their daily activities. Due to the brain damage caused by cardiovascular incident these patients suffer from impairments in the ability to use tools, and to sequence actions during daily tasks (such as making breakfast). Based on the common coding theory (Hommel et al., 2001) and mirror neuron primate research (Rizzolatti et al., 2001) we aim to explore use of cues, which incorporate aspects of biological motion from healthy adults performing everyday tasks requiring tool use and ecological sounds linked to the action goal. We hypothesize that patients with apraxia will benefit from supplementary sensory information relevant to the task, which will reinforce the selection of the appropriate motor plan. Findings from this study determine the type of sensory guidance in the CogWatch interface. Rationale for the experimental design is presented and the relevant literature is discussed.

Modelling ecological cognitive rehabilitation therapies for building virtual environments in brain injury

Brain Injury (BI) has become one of the most common causes of neurological disability in developed countries. Cognitive disorders result in a loss of independence and patients? quality of life. Cognitive rehabilitation aims to promote patients? skills to achieve their highest degree of personal autonomy. New technologies such as virtual reality or interactive video allow developing rehabilitation therapies based on reproducible Activities of Daily Living (ADLs), increasing the ecological validity of the therapy. However, the lack of frameworks to formalize and represent the definition of this kind of therapies can be a barrier for widespread use of interactive virtual environments in clinical routine.