Corporate social responsibility in portfolio selection: A "goal games" against nature approach

Nowadays, there is an uprising social pressure on big companies to incorporate into their decision-making process elements of the so-called social responsibility. Among the many implications of this fact, one relevant one is the need to include this new element in classic portfolio selection models. This paper meets this challenge by formulating a model that combines goal programming with "goal games" against nature in a scenario where the social responsibility is defined through the introduction of a battery of sustainability indicators amalgamated into a synthetic index. In this way, we have obtained an efficient model that only implies solving a small number of linear programming problems. The proposed approach has been tested and illustrated by using a case study related to the selection of securities in international markets.

Estudio de la rotura en barras de acero : aspectos experimentales y numéricos

El acero es, junto con el hormigón, el material más ampliamente empleado en la construcción de obra civil y de edificación. Además de su elevada resistencia, su carácter dúctil resulta un aspecto de particular interés desde el punto de vista de la seguridad estructural, ya que permite redistribuir esfuerzos a elementos adyacentes y, por tanto, almacenar una mayor energía antes del colapso final de la estructura. No obstante, a pesar de su extendida utilización, todavía existen aspectos relacionados con su comportamiento en rotura que necesitan una mayor clarificación y que permitirían un mejor aprovechamiento de sus propiedades. Cuando un elemento de acero es ensayado a tracción y alcanza la carga máxima, sufre la aparición de un cuello de estricción que plantea dificultades para conocer el comportamiento del material desde dicho instante hasta la rotura. La norma ISO 6892-1, que define el método a emplear en un ensayo de tracción con materiales metálicos, establece procedimientos para determinar los parámetros relacionados con este tramo último de la curva F − E. No obstante, la definición de dichos parámetros resulta controvertida, ya que éstos presentan una baja reproducibilidad y una baja repetibilidad que resultan difíciles de explicar. En esta Tesis se busca profundizar en el conocimiento del último tramo de la curva F − E de los aceros de construcción. Para ello se ha realizado una amplia campaña experimental sobre dos aceros representativos en el campo de la construcción civil: el alambrón de partida empleado en la fabricación de alambres de pretensado y un acero empleado como refuerzo en hormigón armado. Los dos materiales analizados presentan formas de rotura diferentes: mientras el primero de ellos presenta una superficie de rotura plana con una región oscura claramente apreciable en su interior, el segundo rompe según la clásica superficie en forma de copa y cono. La rotura en forma de copa y cono ha sido ampliamente estudiada en el pasado y existen modelos de rotura que han logrado reproducirla con éxito, en especial el modelo de Gurson- Tvergaard-Needleman (GTN). En cuanto a la rotura exhibida por el primer material, en principio nada impide abordar su reproducción numérica con un modelo GTN, sin embargo, las diferencias observadas entre ambos materiales en los ensayos experimentales permiten pensar en otro criterio de rotura. En la presente Tesis se realiza una amplia campaña experimental con probetas cilíndricas fabricadas con dos aceros representativos de los empleados en construcción con comportamientos en rotura diferentes. Por un lado se analiza el alambrón de partida empleado en la fabricación de alambres de pretensado, cuyo frente de rotura es plano y perpendicular a la dirección de aplicación de la carga con una región oscura en su interior. Por otro lado, se estudian barras de acero empleadas como armadura pasiva tipo B 500 SD, cuyo frente de rotura presenta la clásica superficie en forma de copa y cono. Estos trabajos experimentales han permitido distinguir dos comportamientos en rotura claramente diferenciados entre ambos materiales y, en el caso del primer material, se ha identificado un comportamiento asemejable al exhibido por materiales frágiles. En este trabajo se plantea la hipótesis de que el primer material, cuya rotura provoca un frente de rotura plano y perpendicular a la dirección de aplicación de la carga, rompe de manera cuasifrágil como consecuencia de un proceso de decohesión, de manera que la región oscura que se observa en el centro del frente de rotura se asemeja a una entalla circular perpendicular a la dirección de aplicación de la carga. Para la reproducción numérica de la rotura exhibida por el primer material, se plantea un criterio de rotura basado en un modelo cohesivo que, como aspecto novedoso, se hace depender de la triaxialidad de tensiones, parámetro determinante en el fallo de este tipo de materiales. Este tipo de modelos presenta varias ventajas respecto a los modelos GTN habitualmente empleados. Mientras los modelos GTN precisan de numerosos parámetros para su calibración, los modelos cohesivos precisan fundamentalmente de dos parámetros para definir su curva de ablandamiento: la tensión de decohesión ft y la energía de fractura GF . Además, los parámetros de los modelos GTN no son medibles de manera experimental, mientras que GF sí lo es. En cuanto a ft, aunque no existe un método para su determinación experimental, sí resulta un parámetro más fácilmente interpretable que los empleados por los modelos GTN, que utilizan valores como el porcentaje de huecos presentes en el material para iniciar el fenómeno de coalescencia o el porcentaje de poros que provoca una pérdida total de la capacidad resistente. Para implementar este criterio de rotura se ha desarrollado un elemento de intercara cohesivo dependiente de la triaxialidad de tensiones. Se han reproducido con éxito los ensayos de tracción llevados a cabo en la campaña experimental empleando dicho elemento de intercara. Además, en estos modelos la rotura se produce fenomenológicamente de la misma manera observada en los ensayos experimentales: produciéndose una decohesión circular en torno al eje de la probeta. En definitiva, los trabajos desarrollados en esta Tesis, tanto experimentales como numéricos, contribuyen a clarificar el comportamiento de los aceros de construcción en el último tramo de la curva F − E y los mecanismos desencadenantes de la rotura final del material, aspecto que puede contribuir a un mejor aprovechamiento de las propiedades de estos aceros en el futuro y a mejorar la seguridad de las estructuras construidas con ellos. Steel is, together with concrete, the most widely used material in civil engineering works. Not only its high strength, but also its ductility is of special interest from the point of view of the structural safety, since it enables stress distribution with adjacent elements and, therefore, more energy can be stored before reaching the structural failure. However, despite of being extensively used, there are still some aspects related to its fracture behaviour that need to be clarified and that will allow for a better use of its properties. When a steel item is tested under tension and reaches the maximum load point, necking process begins, which makes difficult to define the material behaviour from that moment onward. The ISO standard 6892-1, which defines the tensile testing method for metallic materials, describes the procedures to obtain some parameters related to this last section of the F − E curve. Nevertheless, these parameters have proved to be controversial, since they have low reproducibility and repeatibility rates that are difficult to explain. This Thesis tries to deepen the knowledge of the last section of the F − E curve for construction steels. An extensive experimental campaign has been carried out with two representative steels used in civil engineering works: a steel rod used for manufacturing prestressing steel wires, before the cold-drawing process is applied, and steel bars used in reinforced concrete structures. Both materials have different fracture surfaces: while the first of them shows a flat fracture surface, perpendicular to the loading direction with a dark region in the centre of it, the second one shows the classical cup-cone fracture surface. The cup-cone fracture surface has been deeply studied in the past and different numerical models have been able to reproduce it with success, with a special mention to the Gurson-Tvergaard-Needleman model (GTN). Regarding the failure surface shown by the first material, in principle it can be numerically reproduced by a GTN model, but the differences observed between both materials in the experimental campaign suggest thinking of a different failure criterium. In the present Thesis, an extensive experimental campaign has been carried out using cylindrical specimens made of two representative construction steels with different fracture behaviours. On one hand, the initial eutectoid steel rod used for manufacturing prestressing steel wires is analysed, which presents a flat fracture surface, perpendicular to the loading direction, and with a dark region in the centre of it. On the other hand, B 500 SD steel bars, typically used in reinforced concrete structures and with the typical cup-cone fracture surface, are studied. These experimental works have allowed distinguishing two clearly different fracture behaviours between both materials and, in the case of the first one, a fragile-like behaviour has been identified. For the first material, which shows a flat fracture surface perpendicular to the loading direction, the following hypothesis is proposed in this study: a quasi-brittle fracture is developed as a consequence of a decohesion process, with the dark region acting as a circular crack perpendicular to the loading direction. To reproduce numerically the fracture behaviour shown by the first material, a failure criterium based on a cohesive model is proposed in this Thesis. As an innovative contribution, this failure criterium depends on the stress triaxiality state of the material, which is a key parameter when studying fracture in this kind of materials. This type of models have some advantages when compared to the widely used GTN models. While GTN models need a high number of parameters to be defined, cohesive models need basically two parameters to define the softening curve: the decohesion stress ft and the fracture energy GF . In addition to this, GTN models parameters cannot be measured experimentally, while GF is indeed. Regarding ft, although no experimental procedure is defined for its obtention, it has an easier interpretation than the parameters used by the GTN models like, for instance, the void volume needed for the coalescence process to start or the void volume that leads to a total loss of the bearing capacity. In order to implement this failure criterium, a triaxiality-dependent cohesive interface element has been developed. The experimental results obtained in the experimental campaign have been successfully reproduced by using this interface element. Furthermore, in these models the failure mechanism is developed in the same way as observed experimentally: with a circular decohesive process taking place around the longitudinal axis of the specimen. In summary, the works developed in this Thesis, both experimental and numerical, contribute to clarify the behaviour of construction steels in the last section of the F − E curve and the mechanisms responsible for the eventual material failure, an aspect that can lead to a better use of the properties of these steels in the future and a safety improvement in the structures built with them.

Using ecological niche models to support tree species selection for forest restoration planning in largely deforested regions

Species selection for forest restoration is often supported by expert knowledge on local distribution patterns of native tree species. This approach is not applicable to largely deforested regions unless enough data on pre-human tree species distribution is available. In such regions, ecological niche models may provide essential information to support species selection in the framework of forest restoration planning. In this study we used ecological niche models to predict habitat suitability for native tree species in "Tierra de Campos" region, an almost totally deforested area of the Duero Basin (Spain). Previously available models provide habitat suitability predictions for dominant native tree species, but including non-dominant tree species in the forest restoration planning may be desirable to promote biodiversity, specially in largely deforested areas were near seed sources are not expected. We used the Forest Map of Spain as species occurrence data source to maximize the number of modeled tree species. Penalized logistic regression was used to train models using climate and lithological predictors. Using model predictions a set of tools were developed to support species selection in forest restoration planning. Model predictions were used to build ordered lists of suitable species for each cell of the study area. The suitable species lists were summarized drawing maps that showed the two most suitable species for each cell. Additionally, potential distribution maps of the suitable species for the study area were drawn. For a scenario with two dominant species, the models predicted a mixed forest (Quercus ilex and a coniferous tree species) for almost one half of the study area. According to the models, 22 non-dominant native tree species are suitable for the study area, with up to six suitable species per cell. The model predictions pointed to Crataegus monogyna, Juniperus communis, J.oxycedrus and J.phoenicea as the most suitable non-dominant native tree species in the study area. Our results encourage further use of ecological niche models for forest restoration planning in largely deforested regions.

Some past decision theory models for euro construction model codes and for road drainage in Spain, and modest hints with multi-criteria methods for agro and environmental assurance

The authors are from UPM and are relatively grouped, and all have intervened in different academic or real cases on the subject, at different times as being of different age. With precedent from E. Torroja and A. Páez in Madrid Spain Safety Probabilistic models for concrete about 1957, now in ICOSSAR conferences, author J.M. Antón involved since autumn 1967 for euro-steel construction in CECM produced a math model for independent load superposition reductions, and using it a load coefficient pattern for codes in Rome Feb. 1969, practically adopted for European constructions, giving in JCSS Lisbon Feb. 1974 suggestion of union for concrete-steel-al.. That model uses model for loads like Gumbel type I, for 50 years for one type of load, reduced to 1 year to be added to other independent loads, the sum set in Gumbel theories to 50 years return period, there are parallel models. A complete reliability system was produced, including non linear effects as from buckling, phenomena considered somehow in actual Construction Eurocodes produced from Model Codes. The system was considered by author in CEB in presence of Hydraulic effects from rivers, floods, sea, in reference with actual practice. When redacting a Road Drainage Norm in MOPU Spain an optimization model was realized by authors giving a way to determine the figure of Return Period, 10 to 50 years, for the cases of hydraulic flows to be considered in road drainage. Satisfactory examples were a stream in SE of Spain with Gumbel Type I model and a paper of Ven Te Chow with Mississippi in Keokuk using Gumbel type II, and the model can be modernized with more varied extreme laws. In fact in the MOPU drainage norm the redacting commission acted also as expert to set a table of return periods for elements of road drainage, in fact as a multi-criteria complex decision system. These precedent ideas were used e.g. in wide Codes, indicated in symposia or meetings, but not published in journals in English, and a condensate of contributions of authors is presented. The authors are somehow involved in optimization for hydraulic and agro planning, and give modest hints of intended applications in presence of agro and environment planning as a selection of the criteria and utility functions involved in bayesian, multi-criteria or mixed decision systems. Modest consideration is made of changing in climate, and on the production and commercial systems, and on others as social and financial.

Outsourcing and acquisition models comparison related to IT supplier selection decision analysis

This paper presents a comparison of acquisition models related to decision analysis of IT supplier selection. The main standards are: Capability Maturity Model Integration for Acquisition (CMMI-ACQ), ISO / IEC 12207 Information Technology / Software Life Cycle Processes, IEEE 1062 Recommended Practice for Software Acquisition, the IT Infrastructure Library (ITIL) and the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK) guide. The objective of this paper is to compare the previous models to find the advantages and disadvantages of them for the future development of a decision model for IT supplier selection.

Bayesian model selection of structural explanatory models.

In this study we are proposing a Bayesian model selection methodology, where the best model from the list of candidate structural explanatory models is selected. The model structure is based on the Zellner's (1971)explanatory model with autoregressive errors. For the selection technique we are using a parsimonious model, where the model variables are transformed using Box and Cox (1964) class of transformations.

Bayesian model selection of structural explanatory models: Application to road accident data

Using the Bayesian approach as the model selection criteria, the main purpose in this study is to establish a practical road accident model that can provide a better interpretation and prediction performance. For this purpose we are using a structural explanatory model with autoregressive error term. The model estimation is carried out through Bayesian inference and the best model is selected based on the goodness of fit measures. To cross validate the model estimation further prediction analysis were done. As the road safety measures the number of fatal accidents in Spain, during 2000-2011 were employed. The results of the variable selection process show that the factors explaining fatal road accidents are mainly exposure, economic factors, and surveillance and legislative measures. The model selection shows that the impact of economic factors on fatal accidents during the period under study has been higher compared to surveillance and legislative measures.