Supporting decision making under uncertainty: Development of a participatory integrated model for water management in the middle Guadiana river basin.

Following the Integrated Water Resources Management approach, the European Water Framework Directive demands Member States to develop water management plans at the catchment level. Those plans have to integrate the different interests and must be developed with stakeholder participation. To face these requirements, managers need tools to assess the impacts of possible management alternatives on natural and socio-economic systems. These tools should ideally be able to address the complexity and uncertainties of the water system, while serving as a platform for stakeholder participation. The objective of our research was to develop a participatory integrated assessment model, based on the combination of a crop model, an economic model and a participatory Bayesian network, with an application in the middle Guadiana sub-basin, in Spain. The methodology is intended to capture the complexity of water management problems, incorporating the relevant sectors, as well as the relevant scales involved in water management decision making. The integrated model has allowed us testing different management, market and climate change scenarios and assessing the impacts of such scenarios on the natural system (crops), on the socio-economic system (farms) and on the environment (water resources). Finally, this integrated assessment modelling process has allowed stakeholder participation, complying with the main requirements of current European water laws.

A mathematical framework for finite strain elastoplastic consolidation. Part 1: Balance laws, variational formulation, and linearization

A mathematical formulation for finite strain elasto plastic consolidation of fully saturated soil media is presented. Strong and weak forms of the boundary-value problem are derived using both the material and spatial descriptions. The algorithmic treatment of finite strain elastoplasticity for the solid phase is based on multiplicative decomposition and is coupled with the algorithm for fluid flow via the Kirchhoff pore water pressure. Balance laws are written for the soil-water mixture following the motion of the soil matrix alone. It is shown that the motion of the fluid phase only affects the Jacobian of the solid phase motion, and therefore can be characterized completely by the motion of the soil matrix. Furthermore, it is shown from energy balance consideration that the effective, or intergranular, stress is the appropriate measure of stress for describing the constitutive response of the soil skeleton since it absorbs all the strain energy generated in the saturated soil-water mixture. Finally, it is shown that the mathematical model is amenable to consistent linearization, and that explicit expressions for the consistent tangent operators can be derived for use in numerical solutions such as those based on the finite element method.